Reference scenario Transport

(1)

Federal Planning Bureau

Economic analyses and forecasts

PROLIBIC workshop

18/09/2012

Reference scenario Transport

Structure

y

_{Main assumptions of Reference Scenario (REF)}

y

Evolution of transport emissions in Belgium in REF

y

Decomposition analysis CO

₂

y

_{Evolution external cost of transport}

y

Conclusions

(2)

Description of Reference Scenario (REF)

y

PLANET model (v3.2)

Update REF scenario (SFP Mobility & Transport / PROLIBIC)

y

_{Macroeconomic and socio-demographic hypotheses}

y

_{Transport data: calibration on a more recent year (2008). Update of origin and}

destination matrix for passenger and freight transport

y

_{Freight transport, the use of the NST 2007 classification;}

y

_{Costs of vehicles}

y

_{Emission factors and environmental costs Õ E-motion model}

3 Description of Reference Scenario (REF)

y

E-motion model

y

_{Penetration of alternative motor fuel and vehicle technologies Õ}

LIMOBEL-project / Milieuverkenning 2030

y

_{Biofuels minor adjustments updated historic numbers up to 2010}

y

Update NO

_x

emission factors of euro 5 en 6 diesel cars

y

_NO

_x

_{euro 5 = average of euro 2 and 3}

y

_NO

_x

_{euro 6 = 0.08 g/km}

y

_{Update energy consumption factor electric cars}

(3)

Description of Reference Scenario (REF)

y

Indirect emissions

y

_{LIMOBEL / BIOSES project}

y

_{IEA projection gas supply in EU}

y

_{Drop of EU gas from 70% (2005) to 25% (2030)}

y

_{Biofuels only first generation}

y

_{Electricity production gradual phasing out of nuclear energy}

y

_{2030: 40% gas, 32% coal, 25% renewable energy and 3% gasoil}

5 Repartition types of cars in vehicle-km (REF)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Petrol Diesel GASHYBRID_CS DIESHYBRID_CS GASHYBRID_PHEV DIESHYBRID_PHEV Electric hydrogen CNG LPG

(4)

Evolution

exhaust

emissions transport (REF)

2008=100

7

Transport : road, rail, IWW

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO BKG NOx NH3 PM2,5 Pb SO2 NMVOS

Evolution total emissions transport in REF

TotalCO2, NOxand PM2,5 emissions of passenger and

freight transport in Belgium (road, rail, IWW)

2008=100

Share of exhaust, non exhaust and indirect emissions in total CO2, NOxand PM2,5 emissions

% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 CO2 NOx PM2,5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 CO2 NOx PM2,5

(5)

CO

₂

exhaust emissions transport in REF

Evolution of CO2exhaust emissions of passenger and

2008=100

Evolution of the modal share of CO₂exhaust emissions of passenger and freight transport

%

9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 Passenger Freight Total

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Passenger Freight Totaal Rail (P) Cars Motorcycle Bus IWW Rail (FR) Truck Van

NO

_x

exhaust emissions transport in REF

Evolution of NO_xexhaust emissions of passenger and freight transport in Belgium (road, rail, IWW)

2008=100

Evolution of the modal shareof NOxexhaust emissions of passenger and freight transport

% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 Passenger Freight Total

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Passenger Freight Total Rail (P) Cars Motorcycle Bus IWW Rail (FR) Truck Van

(6)

PM

_2.5

exhaust emissions transport in REF

Evolution of PM2.5exhaust emissions of passenger and

2008=100

Evolution of the modal share of PM2.5exhaust emissions of passenger and freight transport

%

11

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 Passenger Freight Total

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Passenger Freight Total Rail (P) Cars Motorcycle Bus IWW Rail (FR) Truck Van

Decomposition analysis

y

_{Evolution of CO}

₂

_{exhaust emissions in REF}

y

_{5 effects:}

y

_{changes in transport demand (demand)}

y

changes in the modal choice (modal shift)

y

_{changes in the number of persons or tonnes per vehicle (occupation/load);}

y

_{technological changes (technology)}

y

Changes in the share of biofuels (biofuel).

y

_{For passenger cars technological changes decomposed into:}

y

_{the changes in fuel technology (fuel shift)}

y

changes in engine size (size shift)

(7)

Decomposition analysis

13 y

Average growth rate in order to enable comparison with historic figures

y

Contribution of the different ‘effects’ in percentage points

Decomposition analysis

Evolution of CO

2

exhaust emissions by

passenger transport (2008-2030)

Evolution of CO

2

exhaust emissions by

passenger cars (2008-2030)

-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% total car motorcycle bus rail

total demand modal shift

occupancy technology biofuel

-0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% car

total demand occupancy

fuel shift size shift fuel efficiency biofuel

(8)

Decomposition analysis

Evolution of CO

₂

exhaust emissions by

freight transport

(2008-2030)

15

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% total truck van rail IWW

total demand modal shift load technology biofuel

Evolution external cost of transport in REF

Evolution external cost of total

emissions

2008=100

Evolution of the pollutant’s share in

external cost of total emissions – LOW

%

80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 LOW CENTRAL HIGH

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008 2030 2008 2030 2008 2030 Passenger Freight Total CO2 NOx NMVOC N2O CH4 SO2 PM2,5