Forecasting optimized with Predictive Insights. Tuesday 10th december 2013 Vincent Beumer

Tuesday 10th december 2013 Vincent Beumer

What we do…

About Magnus

 Flexible  High quality

 Entrepreneurial and a bit headstrong  With the right mentality and commitment Who we are..

 Magnus is founded in 1989

 First partner of SAP Netherlands

 First SAP R/3 implementation in the Netherlands  First big SAP BW implementation in the

Netherlands

 First SAP BPC NW implementation in the

Netherlands

 SAP service partner, validated expertise partner

Receivables Management, Business Intelligence, Datawarehousing, Finance, PLM & EAM

 Located in Naarden and

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

 ~70 specialists in the Netherlands Magnus culture.. SAP Consulting Technology Solutions Managed Services

Magnus Analytics

 Non stop track record with SAP Analytics tools since 1999:

 SAP Business Warehouse (BW)

 SAP Business Planning & Simulation (SEM-BPS)  SAP Corporate Performance Management (CPM)  SAP Business Consolidation System (SEM-BCS)  SAP Integrated Planning (IP)

 SAP BusinessObjects suite (Design Studio, Dashboard Design, WebIntelligence,

Explorer, Analysis)

 Non-stop track record with SAP BPC since 2009 (from 7.0 NW ramp-up until 10.0 on HANA) implementations in the Netherlands and Asia.

What will we cover in this presentation?

 Trends in Analytics, EPM and Predictive

 Dashboarding, Mobile & InMemory  EPM, Budgetting & Forecasting  Predictive Analytics

 Live demo’s from the Magnus Labs - No guts no glory

 SAP Design Studio on HANA in the cloud

 SAP Business Planning & Consolidation 10.0 NW  SAP Predictive Analysis (offline)

Business Intelligence is all about “Checking” what you have done

 Trends within this domain:

 Big data Architectures & InMemory databases  Mobility

 Data Integration (external data)

HANA Studio – Analytic Views

 Create the Analytic View as a ‘star-schema’, together with the Attribute Views

 Create the logical join and define the output fields

 Create the semantic layer by defining the attributes and measures

1

Connecting HANA to SAP Design Studio

 Make sure that the Analytic View has set ‘MultiDimensional Reporting’ to ‘true’ in its properties.

 For a local connection between HANA and Design Studio, create an ODBC-connection

 The ODBC-driver will be installed together with the installation of HANA Studio.

 For a connection between SAP Business Objects and HANA, create an OLAP-connection

Design Studio – Components View

 User interface elements, application content

 Drag and drop into layout editor

 Layout and behavior is edited in the properties view

 Most components offer a set of specific events

Grouping

 Analytic Components: Used to visualize data by assigning a data source

 Basic Components: Variety of components with different functions

Planning what to “Do”

Faster

More frequent

_(continuous)

CFOs' Top imperatives

Dissatisfaction on the current process

90% of FP&A directors are still dissatisfied with the amount of time it takes to complete a

budget and 82% dissatisfied with the time it takes to do a round of re-forecasting.

 Lack of accuracy  Timeliness of output

 Amount of work and time involved

At an average company it takes

Source: Answerthink Consulting/The Hackett Group: “Corporate Strategic Planning Suffers from Inefficiencies” October 1999 - Published in April 2002

95

Days

4,

Months

5

₂₁

Days

Financial plan

Add more value to your budget

 Annual budgeting and planning is generally devious and leads to huge overhead, both in time and money

 Financial analysts spend about 80% of their time on tasks that create little value and 20% to the actual analysis of the figures *

Get rid of your Excel hell

Source: Revising the Panko-Halverson Taxonomy of Spreadsheet Errors, Raymond R. Panko and Salvatore Aurigemma, accepted for publication in Decision Support Systems on February 22, 2010. http://panko.shidler.hawaii.edu/SSR/index.htm

90%

50%

88%

Use

Share

Decide

Contain errors

13

But don’t lock your business users in a rigid system



Excel-interface is promised but not delivered



Lacks end-user flexibility



Strong dependence on IT

How to plan? Categories different types of planning

Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly

Sales & Operation planning Sales planning Investment/ CAPEX planning Cost center

planning Profitability planning Cashflow

planning R&D planning

Demand

Planning Production Planning Costprice planning Supply planning Portfolio planning Daily, Hourly 3-5 year Strategy Monthly, weekly

Connect processes and models

 Strategy, tactics and operations do not align

 Different priorities between the various functions: marketing, operations, sales and

finance, leading to multiple versions of the truth

 Differences are argued away

Silo’s in planning and not integrated within their own silo Silo’s but integrated model within the silo

Integrated Business planning Dynamic Real-Time Forecasting Maturity Time

What do we mean with an Integrated Model?

 Centrally stored data and templates

 The business user in control  Retaining Excel flexibility /

functionality

 Process support

 Uniform process for planning  Authorizations and auditing  Status monitoring

 Workflow

 SAP BPC NW Demo

By implementing a flexible central solution, many risks are excluded

and business users get enabled

SAP BPC from end-user perspective

 Front-end for end-user activities reporting

 Planning (data entry)

 Data Manager packages (copy, delete,

upload data)

 Monitoring of the planning process  Data input from external sources

 Administrator tasks

 Design and management of planning

models and dimensions

 Master data management

 Managing users and permissions  Business rules of consolidation (eg

currency conversion)

 Activities and Business Process Flows  Now also report and plans through

SAP BPC 10.0 compared to previous versions

 New strongly improved EPM for Office client

 One client for multiple SAP applications  Greatly improved Excel Add-in

 Completely new web client and Mobile app

 Administrator function moves to Web (client independent)

 Hierarchical view of master data

 Improved Logic Script Editor

 No .Net server needed anymore

SAP Predictive Analysis

 Statistical Analysis

 Data Mining

 Build predictive models and discover hidden insights

 Many statistical analysis tools built in available

 Use of R open-source statistical analysis language

 In-memory data mining capabilities for handling large volume data analysis

Predicted results of both drivers for 2014

Hamilton 69 pts (difference with BPC: -15 points) Alonso 62 pts (difference with BPC: -30 points)

Predictive analytics road map

NOW



Variety of data sources



Simplified administration interface



Open source



Fully integrated data consumption

IN

PROGRESS



Expanded data sources



In memory calculation for performance optimization



Collaboration predictive algorithms

Predictive model export

FUTURE



SAP BW support as a source of data



Additional predictive algorithms

Predictive analysis in HANA apps

Finally:

It is about catching the right technology wave:

mobile, cloud, big data, dynamic realtime

forecasting, predictive analytics,

+31 (0)6 5124 3452 E [email protected] @vincentbeumer

@MagnusTC