### Business Statistics:

### A Decision-Making Approach

6th Edition

**Unit 2**

### Discrete and Continuous

### Probability Distributions

### Chapter Goals

**After completing this unit, you should be able to:**

### • Apply the binomial distribution to applied problems

### • Apply and recognize the hypergeometric

### distribution

### Probability Distributions

**Continuous**

Probability Distributions

Binomial

Hypergeometric

**Probability **
**Distributions**

**Discrete**

Probability Distributions

Normal

• A discrete random variable is a variable that can assume only a countable number of values

**Many possible outcomes:**

– number of complaints per day – number of TV’s in a household

– number of rings before the phone is answered
**Only two possible outcomes:**

– gender: male or female – defective: yes or no

– spreads peanut butter first vs. spreads jelly first

### Continuous Probability Distributions

• A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume any value on a continuum (can assume an uncountable number of values)

– thickness of an item

– time required to complete a task – temperature of a solution

– height, in inches

### The Binomial Distribution

Binomial

Hypergeometric

**Probability **
**Distributions**

**Discrete**

### The Binomial Distribution

### • Characteristics of the Binomial Distribution:

– A trial has only two possible outcomes – “success” or “failure”

– There is a fixed number, n, of identical trials

– The trials of the experiment are independent of each other

– The probability of a success, p, remains constant

from trial to trial

### Binomial Distribution Settings

• A manufacturing plant labels items as either defective or acceptable

• A firm bidding for a contract will either get the contract or not

• A marketing research firm receives survey

responses of “yes I will buy” or “no I will not” • New job applicants either accept the offer or

### Counting Rule for Combinations

• A combination is an outcome of an experiment where r objects are selected from a group of n objects

### )!

### (

### !

### !

### )

### ,

### (

*r*

*n*

*r*

*n*

*r*

*n*

*C*

###

###

where:P(x) = probability of **x** successes in **n** trials,

with probability of success **p** on each trial

x = number of ‘successes’ in sample, (x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)

p = probability of “success” per trial q = probability of “failure” = (1 – p)

n = number of trials (sample size)

### P(x)

###

### p

**x**

### q

**n**

**x**

**Example:** Flip a coin four
times, let x = # heads:

n = 4

p = 0.5

q = (1 - .5) = .5

x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4

### Binomial Distribution Formula

n = 5 p = 0.1

n = 5 p = 0.5

**Mean**

** 0**
**.2**
**.4**
**.6**

**0** **1** **2** **3** **4** **5**

**X**
**P(X)**

**.2**
**.4**
**.6**

**0** **1** **2** **3** **4** **5**

**X**
**P(X)**

**0**

### Binomial Distribution

• The shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of p and n

– Here, n = 5 and p = .1

### Binomial Distribution

**Example 1**

### : It is known that 10% of business

### students are left-handed. There are five

### students sitting in a row. What is the

### probability that there is exactly one left

### Binomial Distribution

### Characteristics

### • Mean

### • Variance and Standard Deviation

### np

### E(x)

### μ

###

###

### npq

### σ

2###

### npq

### σ

###

Where n = sample size

p = probability of success

n = 5 p = 0.1

n = 5 p = 0.5

**Mean**

** 0**
**.2**
**.4**
**.6**

**0** **1** **2** **3** **4** **5**

**X**
**P(X)**

**.2**
**.4**
**.6**

**0** **1** **2** **3** **4** **5**

**X**
**P(X)**
**0**
0.5
(5)(.1)
np

μ

0.6708 .1) (5)(.1)(1 npq σ 2.5 (5)(.5) np

μ

### The Hypergeometric Distribution

Binomial

**Probability **
**Distributions**

**Discrete**

Probability Distributions

### The Hypergeometric Distribution

• “n” trials in a sample taken from a finite populationof size N

• Sample taken without replacement

• Trials are dependent

### Hypergeometric Distribution

### Formula

*n*

*N*

*r*

*n*

*b*

*r*

*a*

*x*

*P*( )

Where

N = Population size (a + b)

a = number of successes in the population n = sample size

### Hypergeometric Distribution

### Formula

### 0.3

### 120

### (6)(6)

### 3

### 10

### 1

### 6

### 2

### 4

### 2)

### P(x

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

###

*n*

*N*

*r*

*n*

*b*

*r*

*a*

■ Example: 3 Light bulbs were selected from 10. Of the 10 there were 4 defective. What is the

probability that 2 of the 3 selected are defective?

### N = 10

### n = 3

### The Normal Distribution

**Continuous**

Probability Distributions

**Probability **
**Distributions**

Normal

## The Normal Distribution

• **‘Bell Shaped’**

•_{ }_{Symmetrical}_{ }_{ }

•_{ }_{Mean, Median and Mode}

** are Equal**

**Location is determined by the **
**mean, μ**

**Spread is determined by the **
**standard deviation, σ **

**The random variable has an **
**infinite theoretical range: **

+ ** to **

** Mean **
**= Median **
**= Mode**

**x**
**f(x)**

**μ**

**By varying the parameters** **μ** **and σ, we obtain **
**different normal distributions**

### The Normal Distribution

### Shape

**x**
**f(x)**

**μ**
**σ**

Changing **μ** shifts the
distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases or decreases the

### Finding Normal Probabilities

**Probability is the **
**area under the**

**curve!**

**a** **b** **x**

**f(x)** _{P} _{(}_{a}_{} _{x}_{} _{b}_{)}

**f(x)**

**x**

**μ**

### Probability as

### Area Under the Curve

0.5 0.5

The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below

### 1.0

### )

### x

### P(

###

###

###

###

###

0.5 )

x

P(μ

0.5 μ)

x

### Empirical Rules

** μ ± 1σ****encloses about 68% **
**of x’s**

**f(x)**

**x**
**μ** **μ****σ**

**μ****σ**

What can we say about the distribution of values around the mean? There are some general rules:

**σ**
**σ**

### The Empirical Rule

• _{ }_{μ ± }_{2σ }_{covers about }_{95%}_{ of x’s}

• ** μ ± 3σ covers about 99.7% of x’s**

**x**
**μ**

**2σ** **2σ**

**x**
**μ**

**3σ** **3σ**

**95.44%** **99.72%**

### Importance of the Rule

### • If a value is about 2 or more standard

### deviations away from the mean in a normal

### distribution, then it is far from the mean

### • The chance that a value that far or farther

### The Standard Normal Distribution

### • Also known as the “z” distribution

### • Mean is defined to be 0

### • Standard Deviation is 1

**z**
**f(z)**

**0**
**1**

### The Standard Normal

### • Any normal distribution (with any mean

### and standard deviation combination) can

### be transformed into the

### standard normal

### distribution (z)

### Translation to the Standard

### Normal Distribution

### • Translate from x to the standard normal (the

### “z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of

### x and dividing by its standard deviation:

## σ

## μ

## x

### Example

• _{If x is distributed normally with }_{mean of 100}_{ and }

standard deviation of 50, the z value for x = 250

is

• This says that x = 250 is three standard deviations (3 increments of 50 units) above the mean of 100.

### 3.0

### 50

### 100

### 250

### σ

### μ

### x

### Comparing x and z units

**z**
**100**

**3.0**
**0**

**250** **x**

**Note that the distribution is the same, only the **

**scale has changed. We can express the problem in **
**original units (x) or in standardized units (z)**

μ = 100

### The Standard Normal Table

The value within the table gives the

probability up to the desired z value

z 0.00 0.01 0.02 …

0.1

0.2

**.9772**

2.0

**P(z < 2.00) = .9772**

The row shows the value of z to the first

decimal point

The column gives the value of z to the second decimal point

**2.0**

. . .

### The Standard Normal Table

• The Standard Normal table in the textbook

(Appendix B, p398)

gives the probability from the far left (-∞) up to a desired value for z

**z**
**0** **2.00**

**.4772**

Example:

P(z < 2.00) = .9772

### General Procedure for

### Finding Probabilities

•_{ }Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of x

• Translate x-values to z-values

• Use the Standard Normal Table

### Z Table example

• _{Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and }

standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

P(8 < x < 8.6) = P(x < 8.6) – P(x < 8)

= P(0 < z < 0.12) = P(z < 0.12) – 0.5

**Z**
**0.12**
** 0**
**x**
**8.6**
** 8**
0
5
8
8
σ
μ
x

z

0.12 5 8 8.6 σ μ x

z

### Z Table example

• _{Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0 and standard }
deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < x < 8.6)

P(0 < z < 0.12)

**z**
**0.12**

** 0**
**x**

**8.6**
** 8**

P(8 < x < 8.6)

= 8

= 5

= 0 = 1

**Z**

**0.12**

z .00 .01

0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080

.5398 .5438

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871

0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255

### Solution: Finding P(0 < z < 0.12)

.0478
**.02**

**0.1** **.**5478

Standard Normal Probability Table (Portion)

**0.00**

= P(0 < z < 0.12)

### Upper Tail Probabilities

### • Suppose x is normal with mean 8.0

### and standard deviation 5.0.

### • Now Find P(x > 8.6)

**Z**

**8.6**

### • Now Find P(x > 8.6)…

(continued)

**Z**

**0.12**

** 0**
**Z**

**0.12**

.0478

** 0**

.5000 _{.50 - .0478 }
= .4522

P(x > 8.6) = P(z > 0.12) = 1 - P(z < 0.12)

= 1 - .5478 = .4522

### The Uniform Distribution

### Simple example of “Other”

**Continuous**

Probability Distributions

**Probability **
**Distributions**

Normal

### The Uniform Distribution

### • The uniform distribution is a

### probability distribution that has equal

### probabilities for all possible

The Continuous Uniform Distribution:

### otherwise

### 0

### b

### x

### a

### if

### a

### b

### 1

###

###

###

where

f(x) = value of the density function at any x value a = lower limit of the interval

b = upper limit of the interval

### The Uniform Distribution

(continued)### Uniform Distribution

Example: Uniform Probability Distribution Over the range 2 ≤ x ≤ 6:

2 6

.25

f(x) = = .25 for 2 ≤ x ≤ 6_{6 - 2}1

### The Exponential Distribution

### Chapter Summary

• Reviewed key discrete distributions– binomial, hypergeometric and general

• Reviewed key continuous distributions

– normal, and other

• Found probabilities using formulas and tables

• Recognized when to apply different distributions