19pedaling.pdf

Pedaling

Into

the

Future

Marcia

D.

Lowe

The

bicycle

has

the potential

to

help free the

cities

of

the

world

from

choking

on

the pollution

and

traffic

congestion

of

the

automobile,

and

to offer short-range,

individualized

travelat

a

low

cost to

the

billions

who

will

never

be

able

to

afford

a

car.

A

growing

number

of

nations are

realizing

that

in

a world

of

finite

resources-petroleum,

land,

and

clean air—the

bicycleis

the

vehicle ofthefuttire.

Traffic noise in Beijing

means

the whirring ofbicycle

wheels

and

tinklingofbells.

The

streetsof

New

Delhi

come

alivewiththousands ofbicycle

commuters

eachday.Office

workersin

New

York

City

depend

on

bicyclemessengersto cruisepast

bumper-to-bumper

traffic

and

deliver parcels

on

time.

And

policeofficers inSeattle often findbicycles

betterthan

squad

carsfor

apprehending

criminals

on

grid-locked

downtown

streets.

Outsidethecity, bicyclesalsoplayavital role.

Kenyan

dairyfarmerscyclethrough

remote

regionswith milk deliv-eries,

and Nicaraguan

healthworkers

on

bikes

now

reach

fourtimesas

many

ruralpatients asthey did

on

foot.

Whether

a cycle rickshaw inJakarta or a ten-speed in

Boston, pedal

power

plays akeyroleintransportation.

The

bicycle is fast

becoming

the only

way

to

move

quickly

through congested

urban

traffic,

and

theonlyaffordable

personaltransportinthedevelopingworld,

where an

auto-mobile

may

cost

more

thana

worker

earnsinadecade.

Despite its

demonstrated

utility, the bicycle has

been

formallyneglectedby transport planners inalmost every country

on

the globe.

Only China and

a few

Western

European

nations collect transportation data that count

bicycles

among

forms oftransport. Inthe caseofthe

United

States

Department

of

Commerce,

neglectmight

be

a

pro-motion

in status for the bicycle; the

department

refers

inquiries

on

bicycletrade toitsDivision of

Toys

and

Games.

The World

Bank,

the

main

source of

urban

transport

investmentinthedevelopingworld,publisheda1985 study

on

the

Chinese

transport sector thatdoes not even

mention

the

word

bicycle,although the

overwhelming

majorityof

trips inChina'scitiesare

made

bybike. Thisissadlytypical

ofa policy

environment

in

which

only

motor

vehicles are

takenseriously.

High

Price

for

Mobility

The

automobile

haslong

been

consideredthe vehicleof

thefuture. Indeed,ithas

brought

industrialsociety into the

modern

age withadegree ofindividualmobility

and

con-venience not

known

before.

But

overreliance

on

the caris

backfiring as too

many

cars cluttercitystreets

and

high-ways,bringingrush-hour traffic to a standstill.

The

side

effects ofmassiveoil use

show up

not only in

economy-draining importbillsbutindeadlyairpollutionincities,

acid rain in dyinglakes

and

forests,

and

hastened global

warming.

Intheirenthusiasmforengine power,transportplanners have overlookedthevalueof

human

power.

With

conges-tion,pollution,

and

debt threatening

both

the industrial

and

developing worlds,the vehicle ofthe future clearly rides

on

two

wheelsratherthanfour.

The

bicycle'sascent

would

not eliminate automobiles, orany othervehicle,but

would

instead integrate bicycleswithcars

and mass

transit.

A

well-balanced, diversetransportsystem could helpsave

precious oil

and

other resources, reduce pollutants,

and

providemobility topeople with few or

no

alternatives to walking.Beforethiscan

happen,

though,ashiftinattitudes

must

takeplace.

More

Bikers

Than

Drivers

Bicycles already

outnumber

cars

worldwide

by

two

to one, with

most

ofthe 800-million-bicycle fleet

concen-tratedintheThird

World,

particularly

China and

India. In the

United

States,

where

one

of every

two

people

owns

an

best,

supplementary

transportation.

At

theotherextreme

isChina,with

one

privately

owned

carforevery seventy-five

thousand

people.

Chinese

commuters

havelittle choice butto

make

the

most

oftheirbikes.

By

bicyclestandards,

China

is ina class byitself,with

some

270

million bicycles,orroughly

one

forevery four people. In

urban

areas, halfthe residents havebicycles.

Trafficmonitorsat

an

intersectioninthenorthern

indus-trialcityofTianjin

once counted

more

thanfiftythousand bicyclespassin

an

hour.

The

bicyclefleetin

China

hasnearlytripledsince 1979,

largelyas aresultofrisingincomes.

Domestic

bikesales in

1987 reachedthirty-fivemillion units,actuallyexceeding

total

worldwide automobile

sales. Bicyclesarepopularin

China

because,likecarsinindustrialcountries,theyoffer

the luxury ofindividualmobility

and

independence,

and

door-to-doortravelwithout detours orextrastopsforother

passengers.

When

the

same

trip

would

takeequaltime by

bicycleor

mass

transit,

Chinese

prefer tobike.

Bicycles are also popular because Chinese transporta-tion plannersin thesixties

and

seventies used subsidies,

Cycle trishawsinCanton (Guangzhou), China

paying

commuters

a

monthly

feeforbicycling towork,to relieve the pressure

on

crowded

buses

and

to

postpone

publictransitinvestment. Thispolicy,however,failedto

foreseethe bicycle

boom

oftheeighties.

Now

Chinese

citiesface a

phenomenon

in

which

people's appetiteforindividual mobilityis

becoming an

obstacle to

mass

mobility. Likecar

commuters

intheindustrial

coun-tries,bicycle

commuters

are

now

officially

encouraged

to

usethe

expanded

fleetofpublicbusesforlongertrips.

Bicycles transport

more

people in Asia alone than

do

automobiles inall countriescombined.

Throughout

the

continent, ingeniously rigged two-

and

three-wheelers

accomplish

much

of

what

automobiles

do

elsewhere.

With

thehelp oftrailers,baskets

and

loadplatforms,pedal

power

haulseverything

from

sacksofricetopilesofbricks. Cycle rickshaws are the taxis of Southeast Asia, while sturdy

tricyclesare thelighttrucks thathaulloadsof

up

to halfa

ton. In Bangladesh,cyclerickshaws transport

more

ton-nage

thanall

motor

vehicles

combined.

In

urban

areas, bicyclesare theprimary

means

of

com-muting. Inthe countryside,theyhelp peasantsdrastically

cut

down

on

thetime

needed

to transportwater

and

fuel-wood.

In

many

Asian

cities,two-thirdsofthe vehicles

on

theroad during rush hoursarebicycles.

Shunned, Feared

and

Neglected

The

restofthedeveloping worldlags far

behind

Asiain

usingbicycles. ParticularlyinLatinAmerica,the prestige

and power

ofauto

ownership

hashypnotized

governments

into ignoring pedal

power and

led citizens to scorn the bicycleasa vehicleforthepoor.

African farmers

depend

heavily

on

bicycles, but rela-tivelyfew

urban

residents do.

The

few

who

are able to

buy

a bicyclearediscouragedby offi-cial disdain or even bans

on

their use. In

some

African

countriesit istaboofor

women,

the

main

haulersoffood,

wa-ter,fuel

and

children, toride bicycles.

Several heavily polluted

Eastern

European

countries are

taking

modest

stepsto

expand

• thebicycle'sroleineasing the

burden

on

the environment.

InPoland,aplanfora bicycle

system in the city of

Poznan

callsfora 124-mile

network

of

bicyclepathsby1990. Bicycle

productioninPolandhas

more

than

doubled

in the last

two

decades,

and

demand

still exceeds supply. In 1979, the

LithuaniancityofSiauliailauncheda

comprehensive

pro-gram

to

encourage

cycling,theSovietUnion'sfirst,

which

includeda bicycle-pathsystem

and

extensiveparking facili-ties.

A

surprising share ofthe world's bicycles is found in

developedcountries, surprising,onlybecause ofthe small

number

found

on

typical city streets. In several

European

countries,

among

them Denmark, West Germany

and

the

1985,

second

onlytoChina.Bicycle

ownership

inthe

indus-trialworld does notnecessarily

mean

bicycleuse.

One

in

fourBritonshasabicycle,yetonly

one

transporttripout of

thirty-threeis

made

bybike.

Only

one

out offiftybicycles

inthe

United

Statesisusedfor

commuting;

most

oftherest

areriddenbychildren

and

sports enthusiasts,orcollecting dustinthebasement.

A

comparison

ofbicycle

and automobile ownership

by country

shows

therelative

dependence

on

the bicycle (see

Table1).

The

United

States,forexample, has

more

than

twice as

many

bicycles as India, but only a fraction of

American

bicyclesget as

much

use. India'sgrowing middle

classofoffice

and

factory

workers

is

more

likelytogetto

work

bybicyclethan

any

other

form

oftransport.

Table 1. Bicycles

and Automobiles

inSelected

Countries,circa1985(InMillions)

Cycle/Auto

Country

Bicycles

Autos

Ratio

China

1 _300.0

1.2 250.0

India 45.0 1.5 30.0

South

Korea

6.0 .3 20.0

Egypt

1.5 .5 3.0

Mexico

12.0 4.8 2.5

Netherlands 11.0 4.9 2.2

Japan

1

60.0 30.7 2.0

W. Germany

45.0 26.0 1.7

Argentina 4.5 3.4 1.3

Tanzania

.5 .5 1.0

Australia1

6.8 7.1 1.0

U.S.1 103.0 139.0 .7

Sources:WorldWatch Institute,basedonMotorVehicle Manufacturers Association,FactsandFigures (Detroit,Mich:variouseditions);

MVMA,

various private communications; United Nations, Bicycles and

Components:

A

PilotSurveyofOpportunities forTrade

Among

Developing Countries(Geneva:InternationalTradeCentreUNCTAD/GATT,1985); JapanCycle Press International,variouseditions;and othersources.

x

1988

Bikelaneandsignshowingthewaytotherail station, Karlsruhe,WestGermany

Planning

Makes

a

Difference

Likethe

United

States,

most

otherindustrialcountries

have all but

abandoned

the bicycle for the automobile. Suburbanization has sprawled jobs,

homes

and

services

oversuch longdistances thatautomobilesarelessa

conven-iencethana necessity.

Only

ahandful of

North

American

citieshaveextensivebikepaths,

and most major

citieshave

become

bicycle-proof,theirroadways

and

parkingfacilities

designedwith only

motor

vehiclesinmind.

Three

outstanding

models

ofnationwide bicycle

plan-ningare theNetherlands,

West

Germany

and

Japan. Local

governments

inthese countries,spurredbytraffic

jams

and

airpollution,aredemonstrating

how

public policycan

be

usedto

make

cycling a safe

and

convenientalternativeto

thecar.

The

Netherlands has over nine

thousand

miles of

bi-cyclepaths,

more

than any othercountry. In

some

Dutch

cities,halfofalltripsare

made

bybike.

The West

German

town

of

Erlangen

has

completed

a

network

of paths cov-ering

one hundred

miles,

about

halfthelengthofthecity's streets. Bicycleuse has

more

than

doubled

asaresult.

Bicycle-orientedcitiesin

Europe

and Japan have boosted bothbicycle

and

publictransitridershipwithfacilitiesfor

carrying bicycles

on

buses

and

trains,

and

forparking

them

advantage of this bike-to-rail option that train stations

need

parking towers.

The

city of

Kasukabe

now

has a twelve-story structure that usescranestopark overfifteen

hundred

bicycles.

Most

Efficient

Vehicle

Ever

Built

Renewable

fuelsarea hottopicintransportationcircles

today,withconcern

deepening

over

dependence

on

scarce

and

expensiveoil. Intherushtorun engines

on

gasoline alternatives such as corn-based ethanol, transportation

plannershave overlookedatechnologythat convertsfood

directlyintofuel.

A

bikercanridethree

and

one-halfmiles

on

the calories

found

in

an

earofcorn,

and

there is

no

distillingorrefining involved.

Bicycles

consume

lessenergy per passenger mile thanany other

form

oftransport,includingwalking(seeTable2).

A

ten-mile,round-trip

commute

by

bicyclerequires

350

calo-riesofenergy,orthree-quartersofa

cup

ofmacaroni.

The

same

tripintheaverage

American

caruses

more

thanhalf a gallonofgasoline.

Table2.

Energy

IntensityofSelected

Transport

Modes,

U.S., 1984

In 1986,anational

campaign

inthe Netherlands encour-ageddrivers toswitch to bicycles fortripswithin a

three-mileradiusof

home.

Policymakersfiguredthis

would

save

each motoristat least

$400

ayearin fuel costs.

A

1980study

in

Great

Britain calculated that ifjusttenpercent ofcar

trips

under

ten miles

were

made

by

bicycle, the country

would

savefourteenmillion barrelsofoilayear.

A

1983 study of

American

commuters

revealedthatjust

getting to publictransitbybicycleinsteadofcar

would

save

each

commuter

roughly 150 gallons of gasoline a year.

When

amotorist

who

otherwisedrivesallthe

way

to

work

switches to thisbike-and-ride

method,

hisor her annual

gasolineusedropsby

some

four

hundred

gallons, halfthe

amount consumed

bythetypicalcarinayear. Iftenpercent ofthe

Americans

who commute

by carswitchedto bike-and-ride,

more

than $1.3 billion could

be

shaved offthe U.S.oilimportbill.

Urban Bane

In 1983, a

unique

experiment

began

to unfold in the

streetsofBogota,

Colombia. Every

Sunday morning

thirty-sevenmilesofarterialroads

were

closed to

motor

traffic

Mode

CaloriesPer Passenger

Mile

Bicycling

35

Walking

100

Transitrail 885

Transitbus

920

Automobile,

1,860

one occupant

Sources:MaryC.Holcombetal.,TransportationEnergyDataBook,Edition 9(OakRidge,Tenn.,OakRidge NationalLaboratory, 1987); President's CouncilonPhysicalFitnessandSports, privatecommunication,June23, 1988.

A

lookatnationalfuelbills

makes

astrongcaseforusing

bicycles.In 1987, U.S.oilimportscost$43billion,ornearly aquarterofthe country's$171billiontradedeficit.

Of

the country'stotalannualoil

consumption,

nearly two-thirdsis

burned

up

in transportation.

With

world oil production

declining, a country's car

dependence

heightens its vul-nerabilityto

impending

oilpricehikes.

The

debt-ridden Third

World

isespecially

burdened

by

foreignoildependence. Severaldevelopingcountries

al-ready

spend

one-thirdtoone-half oftheirexport earnings

on

imported

petroleum,

on

averageabouthalfofitgoingto

the transportsector.Byshifting to

nonmotorized

transport

where

possible, debtor nations could freetheirfinancial resourcesforotherinvestments.

Man

on abikeinNicaragua

and

halfa millioncitydwellerstooktothestreets tobicycle, rollerskate

and

stroll.

Now

in itssixth year,theweekly

ritualtransformsacityscape

dominated

by

smog

and

honk-ing cars into atranquil,cleanenvironment.

cry

from Bogota

on

Sunday.

Dependence

on

the car exacts atoll

on

human

health,the

environment and

qualityoflife in

urban

areas.

Industrialworldcitiestypicallyrelinquishat least

one-third oftheir land-two-thirds in

Los Angeles~to

motor

vehiclesinthe

form

of roads

and

parkinglots. Inthe

United

States, this totals 38.4 millionacres,

more

area than the entirestate of Georgia. Researchers

George

Work

and

Lawrence

Malone

have

compared

the space

demands

of

variousvehicles,

and

accordingtotheircalculations,fora bridge of a given size to

accommodate

forty thousand peoplein

one hour

would

requiretwelvelanesfor cars,four lanesforbuses,

two

for trains,

and

one

for bicycles.

With

mounting

pressures

on

Third

World

countries to

house

and

feedtheirswelling populations, theyhavelittle

room

tospare forroads

and

parkinglots.

Where

people

and

good

croplandare concentrated ina relativelysmall areaofa country, asinChina,choicesarenarrow. If

China

had

the

same

car

ownership

rate asthe

United

States-one

carforevery

two

people-it

would need

todevote

around

eighteen million acrestoparkingfacilitiesalone,an

amount

equaltoeightpercent ofthe country's arableland.

The

automobile

isvery

much

the victimofits

own

suc-cess,

jamming

urban

centers

and

suburbs alike. Traffic

congestioniserodingthe qualityoflifein

urban

areas,

and

the

amount

oftime wastedintrafficcontinuesto

expand

in

the world's cities.

London

rush-hour trafficcrawlsat

an

average ofeight miles

an

hour. In

Los

Angeles,motorists

waste 100,000 hoursadayintrafficjams. Trafficengineers estimatethat bythe turnofthe century, Californianswill

losealmost

two

millionhoursdaily.

Urban

residents

from

Sao

Paulo to

London

face eye,

nose,

and

throatirritation, asthma, headaches,

and

chest

discomfortbrought

on

by car-produced smog. Emissions

from

gasoline

and

diesel fueluseareannuallylinked toas

many

as thirty

thousand

deathsinthe

United

States alone.

It isshort

automobile

trips-precisely theonesbike-riding

could replace-thatcreate the

most

pollution, becausea coldengine does notfireeffectively

and

releases unburnt hydrocarbonsintotheair. Inthe

United

States,

where an

estimatedfortypercentofurban

commuters

drivelessthan

four miles,pedalingto

work

would

haveadramaticeffect

on

air quality.

Both

city

and

countrydwellers are

endangered

inother ways by theautomobile.

Some

100,000 peoplein

North

America,

Western Europe, Japan and

Australia died in trafficaccidentsin1985.

Developing

countries-with fewer automobilesbut

more

pedestriantraffic

and no

provisions

forseparating the

two-have

fatalityratesas

much

astwenty

timeshigherthanindustrialcountries.

Bicycle ridingisnot withoutitsrisks.Bicycleaccidents

do

accountfor

many

trafficinjuries,particularlyinAsia,but

are unlikely to kill people unless

motor

vehicles are

in-volved.

But

thatissmallconsolationfor

would-be

bicyclists

who

areintimidatedoff the road.

Latin

America

has its

urban

cyclists-including

young

boysdeliveringnewspapers andcraftspeople hauling goods-but

many

potentialridersaredeterredby dangeroustraffic

conditions. Nairobistreetsthat

once were

fullofbicycles

now

areonlysafefor cars.

Where

it can

be

done

safely, cyclingimproves public health.

The

popularityofstationary exercisebikesisproof

thatpeople enjoycycling to

keep

fit; the ironyisthatso

many

peopledrive tothehealthclubinorderto ridethem.

Cyclistsare lessvulnerableto heart attacksorcoronary

diseasethan sedentary

commuters, and

they arriveat

work

more

alert

and

lessstressedby rush-hourtraffic.

An

Equitable

Technology

Bicycles havea hard timegetting the respectthey

de-serve,evenincountries

where

theygivecrucialmobility

and

employment

to millions.

The

cityofJakarta,

Indone-sia,forexample, hasconfiscated tensofthousands ofcycle

rickshawsoverthe past several years

and

dumped

them

intothe seainorderto"reducetrafficcongestion." Last year

more

than 100,000pedicabdriversinDacca, Bangla-deshfaced a potential

ban

oftheir

pedal-powered

cabsfor safetyreasons.

Publicbusesare the

main

mode

oftransport in

most

developingcountries

and

oftentheonly

one poor

people canafford.

But

transitsystems

have

proved incapable of keeping pace withexplosive

urban growth

rates.

Even

where mass

transitsystemsareadequate,they

do

notserve certain crucial needs.

A

passenger bus cannot haula

Ghanaian

farmer's

produce

to market, orcarry a

Colombo

streetvendor'shot lunchestoafactory.

Nor

can ithelpruralpeople

who

livea day's

walk from

the nearest road.

With

bicycles,the

poor

and

unemployed

can earna

livingbygetting

homemade

craftsto

urban

markets,

vend-ingwares inthestreets,ortakingpassengersforhire.

A

bicycle

demands

atinyfractionofthecapital neces-sary to

own

and

operate

an

automobile. InBrazil,theleast

expensivedomesticcar costs

an

average

worker

roughly

sixyears'wages, whilea bicycle requires nearlysixweeks'

pay-Though

many

of those

who

would most

benefit by a bicycle are too

poor

to

own

one, the bicycleis still the

cheapest

mode

oftransportoutside

urban

cores.

Govern-ments

could

encompass

rural areas in their transport

planningbysubsidizingbikepurchases, a

much

lesscostly

approach

than extending roads

and

buslines. Inaddition, bicycle production is a low-riskventure for developing

countries thathavelittleor

no

industrialbase.

Asmall

assemblyplant

and

repair

shop

canrun

on

about

$200 worth

oftools.

One

hundred

bicyclescanbe

manu-facturedforthe materialsittakes to builda

medium-sized

India has

demonstrated

how

anearlyself-sufficient bi-cycle industrycan

be

createdby firstassemblingbicycles

with

imported

parts,thenproducing framesinlocal

work-shops

and

gradually establishingsmallfactoriesto

produce

parts domestically.

From

a

modest

beginningfivedecades

ago,Indiahas

become

a

major world

producer,second only

toChina. Itdirects

more

thanninetypercent ofitsbicycle exportstootherdevelopingcountries,

and

through

joint-venture

and

license

agreements

issharingits small-scale, labor-intensivetechniqueswithcountriesthroughoutAsia, Africa,

and

theCaribbean.

Subsidized

Auto Dependency

The

economic and

environmentalconsequences of auto-mobile

overdependence

may

eventually necessitate bicycle

use,even without

government

help.

But

for

now,

public

policies that ignore bicycles perpetuate private attitudes against using them. Thus, the transport planner's office

seems

the best place forthe philosophical reorderingto

start.

A

major

barrier to bicyclingisthefactthat driversarein effectpaidtouse automobiles. Driversinthe

United

States

may

receiveas

much

as

$300

billion insubsidieseach year

BikelanesinTokyo,Japanare separatedfromtrafficlanesbyplanters.

in the

form

of public funds to pay for road repair

and

construction, police

and

fireservices,

and

healthcare.

In the private sector, free parking provided by

many

employersin effectpaysthe gasoline costsof

commuting.

The

U.S.

Environmental

Protection

Agency

hasconcluded

thatif

employees

were

directly

handed

thissubsidy,public

transitridership

and

bicycleuse

would

go up,while auto

traffic

would

declinebytwenty-five percent.

Severalcitieshave

made

motoristspayforthe privilegeof

drivingautomobiles. Singapore chargesprivate cars

carry-ingfewer thanfouroccupants "congestionfees"for enter-ing the

downtown

area during rush hours, a decade-old

scheme

thathasraised

downtown

trafficspeeds by twenty percent

and

reduced traffic accidents bytwenty-five

per-cent.

Inconvenience~a

general absence ofsafe parking

and

locker

room

facilities-keeps

many

commuters from

bicy-clingtowork, butthereareprecedentsfordealingwiththis.

InChina,bicycleparkinglotsare

guarded

againsttheftby

attendants. PaloAlto, Californiahassuccessfullypasseda

number

of innovative regulations requiring builders of

largeofficestoprovideshowers

and

bicycleparking.

Table3. Productionof Bicycles

and

Automobiles,

SelectedCountries, 1987 (InMillions)

Country

Bicycles

Automobiles

China

41.0 .OO1

Taiwan

9.9 .20

Japan

7.8 7.89 U.S. 5.8 7.10

USSR

5.42 1.33

India 5.3 .15

W.

Germany

2.9 4.37

South

Korea

2.6 .79

Brazil 2.5 .68

Italy 1.6 1.71

Poland

1.3 .30

U.K.

1.2 1.14

Canada

1.2 .81

Others 10.5 6.54

World

Total 99.0 33.01

Sources:WorldWatchInstitute,basedonMotorVehicleManufacturers Association,FactsandFigures'89(Detroit,Mich.: 1989);JapanCycle Press,variouseditions;and othersources.

*In1987,Chinaproduced4,045automobiles. 2 1986estimate.

All that aside,

commuters

arestill notlikelytochoose

bicycling

when

it

means

takingtheir livesintotheirhands

on

busycity streets. In

some

situations, effectivebicycle

promotion

calls for bike paths separate

from

roads

and

space

on

regular roadways devoted to bicycles.

More

importantly,though,traffic

management

and

driver

train-ingshouldreflectbicycles'role aslegitimatevehicles.

Along

Pedaling Into the

Future

Interms of sheer

number

ofvehicles,theworldis

well-equippedtoletbicyclestake

on

a largershareofthe

trans-portationburden.

Around

theworld,nearly 100million

bicycles are

made

each year-three times the

number

of automobiles (see Table 3).

The

big bicycle producers,

especially inAsia,aresureto

keep upping

their capacities.

With

or without bike-oriented planning, financial

im-peratives

may

forceashifttothebicycle.

For

starters,

most

peopleintheworldwillneverbeable to

buy an

automobile, andpublictransitsystemsin

many

citiescannot

keep

pace with explosive population growth.

When

the next oil

crunchhits,perhaps within thenextdecade,even those

who

can

now

afford to drivewill be looking for alternatives.

With

relatively

modest

publicinvestment inparking

and

roadspacefor bicycles,transportation choices

would

multi-plyquickly.

Environmental

degradation

may

also

change

planners'

thinking.

The

by-productsoffossilfuelcombustion-deadly urban air pollution, acid rain

on

lakes

and

forests,

and

global

warming~as

well as the paving of valuable land, point to the

need

for

an

alternative to engines.

The

bicycle

istheonlyvehicle thatcan help addressallofthese prob-lems

and

stillprovide convenient

and

affordablepersonal

transportation.

While

transport planners

remain

fixated

on

the auto, congestion

and commuting

costsarealreadyspurringpeople

toswitch tobicycling.

The number

ofbicycle

commuters

in

the

United

Statesreached2.7millionin1988,

which

isstill lessthan3percent ofall

commuters,

but represents

more

than a quadrupling in

one

decade. This

happened

with

virtually

no

public policy push, suggesting that official

encouragement

couldinspirea

more

dramatic changeover.

Just

how

rapidlythe bicycle will

expand

transport

op-tions,

check

environmental

damage,

and

restore

urban

qualityoflife

depends

on

how

quicklyit

moves

from

indi-vidualpreference

onto

the publicagenda.

ManiaD.Loweisa researcherattheWorldWatchInstitute.

TheauthorwouldliketothankKen Hughesand Michael Replogleof the Institute forTransportation and Development Policy in Washington, D.C., fortheirhelp withthis article.

ThisarticlefirstappearedintheJuly/August1988issueofWorldwatch magazine.

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