PM Optimization: Using Data-driven Analytics for Life Centered Maintenance

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PM Optimization:

Using Data-driven Analytics for

Life Centered Maintenance

Edzel Lapira, PhD

lapira@predictronics.com

David Siegel, PhD

siegel@predictronics.com

Rodrigo Vieira

vieiraro@ucmail.uc.edu

WE KNOW

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

OUR HISTORY & CORE TECHNOLOGY

Predictronics was started by senior researchers and developers from

the National Science Foundation Industry/University Cooperative

Research Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS), which has

been a leader in predictive maintenance technologies since 2001.

At the core of Predictronics’ solutions is the Watchdog Agent

®

Toolbox: A collection of intelligent, rapidly deployable software agents

that can enable users to realize worry-free uptime of critical assets.

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INDUSTRY VALIDATIONS

3

PREDICTRONICS’ VALUE PROPOSITION

4

REC

ON

FI

G

UR

A

BL

E

(3)

EVOLUTION OF MAINTENANCE PARADIGMS

5

Reactive

Maintenance

Trend of Maintenance Paradigm for Engineering Systems

Preventive

Maintenance

Condition-

Based

Maintenance

Prognostics

and Health

Management

Precision & Optimal Maintenance

Fail & Fix

Time based

Reliability centered

maintenance

FMECA – usage based

(unit, hours, …)

Need based

Condition

monitoring and

assessment

Predict & Prevent

Predictive maintenance

CBM+

ISHM, IVHM

“PHM is a system engineering discipline focusing on detection,

prediction, and management of the health and status of complex

engineered systems.”

-- the First International Conference on PHM (2008)

PM OPTIMIZATION

6

REACTIVE

Maintenance

and/or

PREVENTIVE

Maintenance

CONDITION-BASED

Maintenance

and/or

PROGNOSTICS

& HEALTH

MANAGEMENT

LIFE

CENTERED

MAINTENANCE

EVENT-BASED

(Maintenance

Records, alarms,

and fault logs)

DATA-DRIVEN

(Controller or process

data, sensor signals and

measurements)

(4)

IMS’ SYSTEMATIC PHM SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

7

Normal Behavior Most Recent Behavior

Health Assessment

Performance Feature

Torque

Data

Performance Confidence Value

Health Information

Health Radar Chart

Health Visualization

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joint  1  

Joint  2  

Joint  3  

Joint  4  

Joint  5  

Joint  6  

ROBOT TORQUE MONITORING

(5)

TORQUE DATA DURING NORMAL/HEALTHY CONDITION

The RMS torque data for each of the six robot axis consists of a

single value for one complete cycle of the robot and the value is

acquired once per hour.

After each cycle, the disturbance torque values in the positive and

negative directions are also taken for each joint

9

TORQUE DATA DURING A KNOWN FAULTY CONDITION

In this example, the joint profile for axis 3 starts to deviate from the

torque profiles for the other 5 axis, indicating that it is experiencing

degradation and eventual failure.

The failure signature is visually noticeable; however detecting the

early signs of this problem requires more advanced analytical

methods.

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DATA-DRIVEN ROBOT TORQUE MONITORING

11

ROBOT MONITOR – SHOW TREND OPTION

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Life Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Rodrigo Vieira

Visiting Scholar

Center for Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS)

University of Cincinnati

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky

Chapter Meeting - SMRP

14

Decision Making Process

Decision

Making

Support

De

cis

ion

s

(Eve nts)

Data

/ Info

rmat

ion

(Measure men ts and Ev ents)

De

cis

io

ns

S

up

po

rt

Ex.:

Maintenance Strategy Models

“Agent”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Methodology and Practical Example:

Asset:

Wind Turbine

Component:

Gearbox

Maintenance Action:

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

(MTBM = 6 Months)

“Theoretical Maintenance Plan”

Last Maintenance Action “Now” Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action

...

“Real Maintenance Plan”

Last Maintenance Action “Now” Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action

...

Why?

- Asset Condition

- Production Windows

- Maintenance Team

availability

- Spare Parts

availability

- Work Tools

availability

- Weather Constraints

, etc

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP 16 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0 10 20 30 40 50 PrevMaintCostHour($/h) # A c ti ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Last Maintenance Action “Now” Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action

...

PrevMaintCost

CorrMaintCost

TotalDownTimeCorr

TotalNoProdCorr

Maintenance Action Interval Maintenance Action Interval Maintenance Action Interval Maintenance Action Interval

>> Preventive Maintenance Cost

>> Corrective Maintenance Cost

>> Total No Produced Energy due to Corrective Maintenance

>> Total Downtime due to Corrective Maintenance

/

TBM

=

PrevMaintCost/h

CorrMaintCost/h

TotalDownTimeCorr/h

TotalNoProdCorr/h

Label Description

-2 Unsatisfactory Life-Requirement

-1 Below Life-Requirement Reference

0 Achieve Life-Requirement Reference

+1 Above Life-Requirement Reference

+2 Greatly Above Life-Requirement “Ref.

V

er

y

B

ad

“-2

B

ad

“-1

O

k

“0

G

o

o

d

“+1

V

er

y

G

o

o

d

“+2

Life-Requirements

(Very Bad)

(Bad)

(Ok)

(Good)

(Very Good)

“Life-Requirements Class”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Wind Turbine Examples:

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

WindFarm Class for PrevMaintCostHour($/h)

#

A

c

ti

ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 PrevMaintCostHour($/h)

# A c ti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100

WindFarm Class for CorrMaintCostHour($/h)

#

A

c

ti

ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 CorrMaintCostHour($/h)

# A c ti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WindFarm Class for TotalDownTimeCorr(h)

#

A

c

ti

ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalDownTimeCorr(h)

# A c ti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80

WindFarm Class for TotalNoProdCorr(kW)

#

A

c

ti

ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalNoProdCorr(kW)

# A c ti ons

Ve

ry

B

ad

Bad

Ok

Good

Ve

ry

G

o

o

d

Ve

ry

B

ad

Bad

Ok

Good

Ve

ry

G

o

o

d

Ve

ry

B

ad

Bad

Ok

Good

Ve

ry

G

o

o

d

Ve

ry

B

ad

Bad

Ok

Good

Ve

ry

G

o

o

d

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP 18

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS)

“4x” Life-Requirements Class

“4x” Life-Requirements

Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Interval

MDS 1

MD

S

2

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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19 -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 WindFarm GLR Indicator # A c ti ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 WindTurbine 002 GLR Indicator # A c ti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 WindFarm GLR Indicator # A c ti ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 WindTurbine 004 GLR Indicator # A c ti ons

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

MDS 1

GLR Indicator Evaluation

Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Interval 𝐺𝐿𝑅(𝑡) = ( 𝛾𝑟∗ 𝐿𝑅𝑟(𝑡)   -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

WindFarm Class for PrevMaintCostHour($/h)

#

A

c

tions

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 PrevMaintCostHour($/h)

# A cti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100

WindFarm Class for CorrMaintCostHour($/h)

#

A

c

tions

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 CorrMaintCostHour($/h)

# A cti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

WindFarm Class for TotalDownTimeCorr(h)

#

A

c

tions

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalDownTimeCorr(h)

# A cti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80

WindFarm Class for TotalNoProdCorr(kW)

#

A

c

tions

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

WindTurbine Class for 002 TotalNoProdCorr(kW)

# A cti ons -2 -1 0 1 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 WindFarm GLR Indicator # A c ti ons

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance

-2 -1 0 1 2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 WindTurbine 002 GLR Indicator # A c ti ons

MD

S

2

Very Bad “-2”

Bad “-1”

Ok “0”

Good “+1”

Very Good “+2”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Decisions

“Clustering”

Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)

For Similarity

Normal v.s. Abnormal

Decisions

“Label”

Based on “System/Machine” Objective

Better v.s. Worse

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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21 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Wind Turbine Examples:

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Decisions

“Clustering”

Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)

For Similarity

Normal v.s. Abnormal

Decisions

“Label”

Based on “System/Machine” Objective

Better v.s. Worse

Decisions

“Understanding”

Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”

to understand its “decisions impact” over

the “machine objective”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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23 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Wind Turbine Examples:

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Decisions

“Clustering”

Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)

For Similarity

Normal v.s. Abnormal

Decisions

“Label”

Based on “System/Machine” Objective

Better v.s. Worse

Decisions

“Understanding”

Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”

to understand its “decisions impact” over

the “machine objective”

Decisions

“Learning”

… From Previous Decisions

… Expert System

(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) - ANFIS)

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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GLR Real

f(Life-requirements)

GLR Estimation

(Based on “Health Indicators”)

INPUT VARIABLES

“Measurements”

AHRV11

AHRS11

.

.

.

AHRVij

AHRSij

TBM

OUTPUT VARIABLES

(Training Phase)

GLR

“Life-Requirements”

Expert

System

GLR Estimation

f(“Measurements”)

GLR Rules

Decision Making

Support

GLR Estimation

f(“Measurements”)

GLR Prognosis

f(“Health Indicators

Prediction”)

“Now”

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Maintenance Action Interval “Now”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”

to understand its “decisions impact” over

the “machine objective”

… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)

… For Similarity

… Normal v.s. Abnormal

… Based on “System/Machine” Objective

… Better v.s. Worse

… From Previous Decisions

… Expert System

(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System - ANFIS)

Decisions

“Label”

Decisions

“Clustering”

Decisions

“Understanding”

Decisions

“Learning”

Predict/Prognosis the “decisions impact”

over the “machine objective”

Decisions

“Prognostic”

“Now”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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27

Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

Wind Turbine Examples:

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 002

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 WorDec BetDec MDS 1 MD S 2

Gearbox Preventive Maintenance - GLR Indicator Evaluation - Wind Farm vs Wind Turbine 004

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

1 Week

GLRp = -0.3

3 Weeks

GLRp = +0.2

2 Weeks

GLRp = +0.6

1 Week

GLRp = -1.0

3 Weeks

GLRp = +0.1

2 Weeks

GLRp = -0.6

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Life-Centered Maintenance (LCM)

“Now”

… Help/Support the “Decision Making Staff”

to understand its “decisions impact” over

the “machine objective”

… Decision (“Launch a Maintenance Action”)

… For Similarity

… Normal v.s. Abnormal

… Based on “System/Machine” Objective

… Better v.s. Worse

… From Previous Decisions

… Expert System

(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System - ANFIS)

Decisions

“Label”

Decisions

“Clustering”

Decisions

“Understanding”

Decisions

“Learning”

Predict/Prognosis the “decisions impact”

over the “machine objective”

Decisions

“Prognostic”

Greater Cincinnati-Northern Kentucky Chapter Meeting - SMRP

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Thank you for your attention…

Figure

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