Comparing Electricity
Generation Technologies
g
Stan Rosinski
P
M
R
bl G
ti
Program Manager, Renewable Generation
2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review
March 3 2011
March 3, 2011
Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies
Key Takeaways
y
y
• Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among
– Power generation technologies
– Fuels
Renewable resources
– Renewable resources
• Balance business objectives with
– Environmental stewardship
Environmental stewardship
– Regulatory compliance
– Future scenarios
• Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable
electricity supply
The Cost Challenge
U.S. Retail Price of Electricity
18
16
e
nts)
y
(commercial, industrial, residential)
16
14
12
(in 2007 c
e
12
10
C
ents/kWh
8
6
C
Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years…
what about the next 40 years?
4
2
3
© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Where Does Our Electricity Come From?
2009 Electric Sector Generation
Comparing Generation Technologies
5
How Many Plants Does it Take to Power a City?
A Sense of Scale
Nuclear
Coal
Natural Gas
=
=
1
2
Solar
Photovoltaic
Wind Turbines
Geothermal
Biomass
3
=
=
=
1.6 Million
2,000
30
20
Annual electricity consumption for 1 million homes (based on average
y
p
(
g
annual household consumption of 12,000 kilowatt hours)
Which Plants are Used the Most Today?
7
Summary
• Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among
– Power generation technologies
– Fuels
Renewable resources
– Renewable resources
• Balance business objectives with
– Environmental stewardship
Environmental stewardship
– Regulatory compliance
– Future scenarios
• Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable
electricity supply
St k h ld
d
t
di
f th
t d
ff i i
t
t
Energy Efficiency in
Resource Portfolio Planning
g
Omar Siddiqui
Di
t
E
Effi i
Director, Energy Efficiency
2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review
24 States have Energy Efficiency Resource
Standards (4 more pending)
(
p
g)
CFLs Contribution to Savings Has Been Huge
California, 53%
Massachusetts, 52%
Residential
All sectors
New York, 24%
Vermont, 39%
2009 Savings
CFL Savings
All Other Savings
Residential
Residential
2009 Savings
g
11
© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That!
EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That!
EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That!
EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That!
Source: DOE CFL Market Profile 2010
EPRI Energy Efficiency Technology Pipeline
Accelerating Readiness of Emerging Efficient Technologies
Coordinated
Accelerating Readiness of Emerging Efficient Technologies
Assessment &
R&D Field Tests/Demos
10s to 100s of units
Coordinated
Deployments
1000s of units
Full Program
Rollout
Assessment &
Lab
Testing
EPRI EE
Demonstration Project
e.g. Northwest Alliance
rollout of 8 000+
Utility
EE Programs
EPRI EE
Base Program
Demonstration Project
rollout of 8,000+
ductless heat pumps
EE Programs
• Instrument extensively
• Evaluate: estimated
deemed savings
• Performance results to
refine deemed savings
B ild
l
h i
• Full adoption
• Conduct M&V
Base Program
Technology
assessment and
validation
deemed savings,
installation,
demographics, behavior
• Build supply chain
infrastructure
validation
Energy Efficiency Potential Analysis Methodology
Does it create
positive net present
l
f
Behavioral
barriers;
value for
customers?
barriers;
supply
constraints
Program budget
realities and
learning curves
M
i
R
li ti
Economic
Potential
Maximum
Achievable
Potential
Realistic
Achievable
Potential
Market
Screen
Program
Screen
13
© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Economic
Screen
Levelized Cost of Electricity for EE Programs
Administration
• Planning, design, delivery
Capital
Equipment
Other
• R&D
Incentives
Rebates/financing - customers
g,
g ,
y
• Program EM&V
q p
Infrastructure
• other
g
Incentives – supply chain
Buy downs - manufacturers
Technical Factors
Behavioral Factors
Technical Factors
• Unit energy savings (kWh, kW)
• Useful life of measures
Behavioral Factors
• Usage rate
• Persistence/replacement
• Saturation/free-riders
• Price/Rate induced load changes
• Price/Rate induced load changes
Energy Efficiency is competitive with supply
on a cost basis
Cost of US Electric End-Use Efficiency Programs, 2009
All EE
Programs
Total U.S.
Commercial
& Industrial
ota U S
West
South
Midwest
Residential
Northeast
Cost ($/kWh)
$0.00
$0.01
$0.02
$0.03
$0.04
$0.05
$0.06
15
© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cost ($/kWh)
Source: CEE “State of the Efficiency Program Industry”, 12/10/2010. Calculated from Table 5 (US Electric Program Expenditures,
2009) & Table 21 (US Estimated Annual Electric Energy Savings for 2009). “All EE Programs” also includes programs classified
under Low Income and “Other”, which are not counted under Residential, Commercial, or Industrial.
Cost & Achievable Potential by Sector & End Use
2025 Medium Forecast Loads & Prices (Pacific Northwest)
(
)
5.2
500
600
5 0
6.0
k
Wh
)
4.3
3.6
3 2
4.6
3 1
3.4
400
500
n
ti
al
(MW
a
)
4.0
5.0
Co
st
(C
en
ts
/k
1.7 1.7
2.2
1 3
2.5
2.1
2.6 2.8
1.6
2.2
3.2
2.22.3
2.8
3.1
1.7
2.1
200
300
ev
ea
b
le
Po
te
n
2.0
3.0
a
ge
L
e
ve
liz
ed
Avg = 2.4 ¢/kWh
1.3
0
100
Ls
m
ip
.
ng
rs
AC
AC
rs
ng
ll)
re
on
rs
ns
ll)
nt
ry
re
ng
el
l
el
l
rs
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i
0.0
1.0
Ave
ra
Re
s.
C
FL
In
d.
No
n‐
Al
um
in
um
m
. N
ew
&
R
ep
l.
Eq
ui
p
N
ew
&
R
ep
l.
Li
gh
ti
ng
Pu
m
p
W
at
er
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ea
te
rs
&
R
ep
la
ce
m
en
t
HV
AC
Co
m
. R
et
ro
fit
H
V
AC
Re
s.
C
lo
th
es
W
as
he
r
Co
m
. R
et
ro
fit
L
ig
ht
in
g
ng
S
pa
ce
C
on
d.
(S
he
l
Re
tr
of
it
In
fr
as
tr
uc
tu
re
A
gr
ic
ul
tu
re
Ir
ri
ga
tio
n
Re
s.
W
at
er
H
ea
te
rs
C
Sy
st
em
C
on
ve
rs
io
n
w
S
pa
ce
C
on
d.
(S
he
ll
Re
tr
of
it
E
qu
ip
m
en
t
W
at
er
He
at
R
ec
ov
er
y
&
R
ep
. I
nf
ra
st
ru
ct
ur
e
ys
te
m
C
om
m
is
si
on
in
g
Co
m
. R
et
ro
fit
S
he
l
&
R
ep
la
ce
m
en
t
Sh
el
id
en
ti
al
R
ef
ri
ge
ra
to
r
Co
m
Co
m
. N
Re
s.
He
at
P
Co
m
. Ne
w
&
R
Co
Re
s.
E
xi
st
in
Co
m
. R
e
A
Re
s.
HV
A
C
Re
s.
Ne
w
Co
m
.
Re
s.
Ho
t W
Co
m
. Ne
w
&
Re
s.
H
VAC
S
ys
Co
m
. Ne
w
&
Re
si
d
Energy Efficiency Supply Curve by 2025
Pacific Northwest
4,000
4,500
Industrial
I i ti
3,000
3,500
,
tts
2025
Irrigation
Commercial
Residential
2,000
2,500
e
Me
ga
wa
t
500
1,000
1,500
Av
er
ag
e
0
500
<1.0 <2.0 <3.0 <4.0 <5.0 <6.0 <7.0 <8.0 <9.0 <10.0 >10.0
17
© 2011 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.