Market analysis for satellite train localisation for train control systems
René Sebastian Hosse
a*, Hansjörg Manz
a, Kirsten Burmeister
a, Eckehard Schnieder
a aInstitute for Traffic Safety and Automation Engineering, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Braunschweig, Germany
Abstract
The introduction of the Safety of Life Service (SoL) of EGNOS creates opportunities for a large number of new applications in railways. The economical effects of the introduction of satellite based localisation systems in railways have not been analysed fundamentally yet, this shall be done by this paper. As basis for market introduction, their economical viability and benefits has to be investigated intensively. Within the EU-project SATLOC research is undertaken to analyse if starting investments for an introduction of satellite based localisation in railways can be covered by economical benefits, which it generates. This evaluation is pursued by an economical analysis, which enables to track the economical change if using satellite based localisation for safety-relevant applications in railways. Based on the particularities of the European railway market the most suitable method for this market analysis is chosen through a review of modern methodologies including formal models. In the analysis operational as well as technological parameters are included to enable a close-to-reality evaluation.
Keywords: Market Analysis, System Dynamics, Railways, Satellite-based localisation.
Résumé
L'introduction du service de sauvegarde de la vie (SoL) d'EGNOS crée des opportunités pour un grand nombre de nouvelles applications dans les chemins de fer. Les effets économiques de l'introduction de systèmes de localisation par satellites dans les chemins de fer n'ont pas été analysés fondamentalement encore, cela fera l’objet d’étude du présent document. Comme base pour l'introduction sur le marché, la viabilité et les avantages économiques de ce type de satellites doivent être étudiés de manière intensive. Dans le cadre de la recherche européenne, le projet SATLOC est entrepris pour analyser si les investissements de départ pour l’introduction de la localisation satellitaire dans les chemins de fer peuvent être couverts par des avantages économiques que ce satellite générerait. Cette évaluation est poursuivi par une analyse économique, qui permet de suivre l'évolution économique si vous utilisez localisation satellitaire pour des applications de sécurité dans les chemins de fer. Basé sur les particularités du marché ferroviaire européen, la méthode la plus appropriée pour cette analyse de marché est choisi par un examen des méthodes modernes, y compris des modèles formels. Dans l'analyse, des paramètres de fonctionnement ainsi que technologiques sont inclus pour permettre une évaluation proche de la réalité.
Mots-clé: analyse de marché, dynamique des systèmes, chemins de fer, localisation satellitaire..
*
Tel.: +49-531-391-3328; fax: +49-531-391-5197.
Nomenclature
P probability of acquiring T time of acquisition p proportion of innovators q share of imitators
N achievable market potential
Y number of people who have purchased the product
1.Economic characteristics of railway industries
Railway transportation is one of the oldest operated transportation system in Europe, except marine transportation (Lenke 2004). The importance of rail traffic has declined in contrast to aviation and road transportation due to the rapid technological progress, although the railway technology is very advanced (Waldstätten 1979). On the so-called low traffic density lines (LTDL) the cost of operation and infrastructure equipment for localization functions are very high and the financial utilization low. Consequently the use of satellite-based positioning is an opportunity for cost savings and more efficient use of rail traffic on LTDL (Bazán et al. 2011). Since the introduction of new products and innovations on the railway market not only leads to growth and increased profits of involved companies, but it is also associated with risks of the product. Therefore a compelling market strategy is crucial (Bähr Seppelfricke 1999).
1.1.Market Situation for Innovations in Railways
To introduce a new technology in the railway market the characteristics have to be discussed that distinguish the railway transportation market to other transportation markets. In railway operators are heavily subsidized by governmental associations. This inheres two important aspects: Either the efficiency is reduced due to subsidies - the provider does is not motivated to keep costs low. Or the subsidies are limited, thus the profits of railway companies are decreased and the possibility of increasing industry profits is up to the market actors, this is hampered by the low margins (Griffin 2007). Also the late opening of the market for foreign companies, the unfinished liberalization and the different railway technologies and incompatibilities are causing a weak competition on the railway market and the ineffective competition with other transportation modes (Heymann, 2006). It is a characteristic that in the railway transportation market an oligopoly prevails (EFILWC 2004): only ten European companies own 32% of the world market, with the largest suppliers (Alstom , Siemens, and Bombardier) holding seven to eight percent (Griffin 2007) (Bazan et al. 2011). This condition is determined, among other aspects, by costs of contract negotiations, which are time consuming at very high costs. Another feature of railway transportation is the above-average useful product life of assets used there: a rail vehicle is expected to be 15 to 20 years, and 50 years for railway tracks (Hirschausen / Siegmann 2004). It is expected that a railway vehicle can be used two to three times as long as a comparable road vehicle (Griffin 2007). Due to the long product life cycle, production quantity is compared to the automotive industry much smaller, which shares many features with the railways. Production cannot be automated to the same extent, as it is more like the manufacture of aircrafts than automotive vehicles (Griffin 2007). In addition, the stock of railway vehicles is much lower than that of road vehicles and thus no mass digressions potential is available (destatis 2013).
1.2.Need for satellite-based localization systems in railways
Since the national diversity of train control systems for the increasing cross-border traffic in Europe is a hindrance, the European Train Control System (ETCS) has been developed. This system can be characterized in three levels. With the EU directive 2008/57 EC on the interoperability of the railway system within the Community of European deployment of ETCS was enacted to create a trans-European railway system (EC 2008). With this system, a infrastructure-based method of localization with the help of EURO balises and radio is possible. The localization is performed by the EURO balises, which operate on the principle of transponders for spot transmission and as place marks (electronic milestones) on the track . Additional EURO radio is in a GSM-R (Global System for Mobile Communication) based wireless connection linking the train control centre to the railway vehicles and allows operational management of the rail vehicle. The track is released by track circuits or axle counters (Fenner et al. 2003), (Pachl 2008). The presented method of train control and command requires the usage of expensive and sophisticated infrastructure technologies, which is why this method is
worthwhile only on routes with high traffic density and high speed lines (Pachl 2008), (Kauffman 2011), (Bazan et al. 2011). For this reason on LTDL lines non-technical methods are used (Scheppan 2006). Here, the sequence of moves is autonomously regulated by so-called locally or centrally inserted dispatchers. The actual positions are communicated analog with a local dispatcher. The local dispatcher communicates with dispatchers of the adjacent operating points for admitting a train in a block section and the feedback . When using a central dispatcher who controls the sequence of moves, based on the messages of the operating personnel in the operation of autonomous bodies. In this method, a rational management with limited staff and minimal equipment infrastructure is possible. However, this means a high burden on the central dispatcher. In both non-technical processes is the probability of error at a high level, influences such as the confusion of train numbers already caused a number of accidents in Europe (Pachl 2008). This traditional localization methods inheres some disadvantages for LTDL lines and do not match the state of the art any more. Therefore a new method for localizing railway vehicles on LTDL lines is necessary.
To increase the security on LTDL lines , the use of a satellite-based positioning system is planned (Pachl 2008). In order to realize a satellite-based tracking system of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology and the European GNSS Agency (GSA), projects are to be developed of different locations, which aim a satellite-based tracking platform for rail-bound traffic. The system has advantages over infrastructure-side tracking: for example, the complex and costly infrastructure facilities are no longer needed by the use of such a positioning platform. The disadvantages of the infrastructure side equipment, such as the emergence of compatibility issues with border crossings or maintenance of crossings and facilities are avoided (Klinge 1997). To justify the retrofitting of safety technology of the infrastructure for railway vehicle, the product must be implemented in the existing infrastructure and be compatible with it. In addition, a low-cost and mass production is necessary and the maintenance costs should be reduced to a minimum. Furthermore, it must be ensured that the track selectivity can also be determined in the turnout area (Klinge 1997). Through the use of satellite navigation technology innovative transport applications are possible, which significantly improve the flow and usability of railway transport, thus increasing its attractiveness to private and business customers.
2.Methodological approach
For the successful introduction of new products requires a strategy that is adapted to the realities of the market and the customer needs. First, in this chapter the strategic possibilities of marketing instruments are considered. The system theoretical approach System Dynamics is then shown to account for, among other things, the dynamics and the variety of factors influencing the market. From the findings of the examination of the marketing instruments and the systems theory approach, the method can be applied and a well mannered market structure can be proposed.
2.1.Marketing instruments for railway industry
The term "marketing" includes the word "market", which is understood in business administration as the totality of all parties interested in buying the product, while the economics of the market place as the crashing of supply and demand characterizes. An assessment and analysis of the market is performed fixing the targets and to assess the current companies'/product's position in the market and in comparison to other competitors. A consideration of the environmental situation is necessary because a company/product can only develop a successful bid, if it is aware of its environment and the conditions on the market. (Fritz / Oelsnitz 2006) It is divided into a micro-environment and into a macro micro-environment. The micro micro-environment is concerned with the economic behavior of economic agents and companies, which is limited to the sales and procurement markets in the analysis of the environment. Thus, in the macro environment potential customers, competitors and the behavior of the customers has to be investigated and possible suppliers and financiers to be identified. The macro environment deals with macroeconomic variables and characteristics of markets (Sieg 2010). Consequently, it is divided into five basic components:
• economical environment • technology environment • political and legal environment • socio-cultural environment • ecological environment
In analysis of the market the so-called quantitative market and customer analysis can be performed to look at the environment and to gain knowledge on relevant market characteristics. Relevant features for strategy planning are (among others) the market volume (the actual realized revenue / sales of all providers), market potential (the maximum possible sales / turnover of all providers) and market growth counted (Walsh et al. 2009). To get a comprehensive information base, in addition to the results of quantitative analysis and qualitative factors are involved in this analysis.
2.2.Socio-economic approaches of systems theory
After the marketing analysis instruments have been considered, the basics of systems theory are presented in this section. In this case the system dynamics method, which was developed by Jay W. Forrester and known under the name of Industrial Dynamics (Forrester 1961). The approach uses differential equations in so-called stock and flow diagrams to model socio-economic systems. Furthermore the approach is capable of modeling non-linear system behavior, which provides a reality-close model. The approach is widely spread throughout industry and academic use. Especially the modeling market entry processes, so-called diffusion processes, show a significant advantage for strategic product planning. (Thun/Strohhecker 2012) The strategic planning of diffusion processes with the help of models, such as system dynamics, can be coordinated (Milling/Maier 1996). The system-theoretical models serve as contributing factors and thus to analyze the spread of the diffusion process and are a basis for the design of the marketing strategy (Bähr Seppelfricke 1999).
The distribution and regulation of news, so the communication is referred to as cybernetics and involves diffusion (Wiener 1972). Diffusion is a special form of communication that occur in the information on a new idea and shared. The diffusion is characterized by four main
• innovation,
• communication channels, • time, and
• social system.
An innovation is regarded in this context as an idea or object that is perceived by market participants as a novelty. A communication channel describes the means by which information is passed through an innovation from one person to another person. The third element , the time available and the decision on the acceptance or rejection of the innovation, the duration of the knowledge innovation. The social system includes individuals, organizations or subsystems that are defined to the system and basically assume the innovations (Kaas, 1973). The social system exerts an important influence on diffusion processes, as an innovation by an individual member or by the entire social system can be accepted or rejected. Thus it is decided by the members of the success of an innovation (Rogers, 1995). The course of the diffusion process over time represents a saturation curve. The following figure 1 describes qualitatively the ideal diffusion process of a product over time.
Fig. 1. Generic Diffusion Process.
The Bass diffusion model serves as the basis for the model to be developed . It is the most famous in the marketing literature; also the most common model , which reflects the influence of advertising and communication about a new product. This model differs between two groups of customers: innovators and imitators. The innovators are the same as those of the adoption process, while among the imitators of other
groups are combined because their innovation adoption depends of the decisions of others in the social system. The starting point of the model is the assumption that the probability P of the new acquisition of a product at the time T is linear to the number of people who have already made a purchase. (Bass 1969) This mathematical relation is expressed in the following equation:
P(T) = p + (q/N) Y(T) (1)
This mathematical basis sources as the basic model assumption for the system dynamics model of the diffusion process of satellite-based localization systems in LTDL markets.
3.Application of the Market Analysis Method on the SATLOC project
The SATLOC project is funded by the GSA. In the project consortium ten participants are working. The overall goal of SATLOC is the integration of a satellite-based positioning system on low traffic density lines and realize a safe train control management. (UIC 2013). The necessity of SATLOC lies in the fact that the secondary tracks cover a large market: 40% of the existing routes in Europe can be categorized as LTDL, and 60% of railway passenger transport services are operated on this track category. Also the Eastern European countries need a more effective and affordable technology for modern train control in order to maintain railway transport throughout suburban areas and thus boost financial growth. Furthermore SATLOC reaches similar functionality as ETCS at significantly reduced cost (1 to 10). It is intended that the SATLOC technology becomes compatible to ETCS equipped railway vehicles and infrastructure. (Barbu 2010) The characteristics of the target market of SATLOC are implemented in the model, which will be developed in the next chapter.
4.System Dynamics Model for Market Diffusion of satellite-based localization technologies
The basic system dynamics model concept will be highlighted to create a basic understanding of the diffusion principles and market mechanisms taken into account: The railway operator is the area of interest for this work, since they describe the target group of SATLOC product customers. For the development of the marketing concept on the basis of the simulation model the decision of potential adopters is important in this area. The market model is illustrated in figure 2.
Decision is as to whether to adopt the satellite-based positioning system and to equip railway vehicles with the new technology, or rely on traditional systems. The decision making process depends on endogenous variables and conditions, such as infrastructure status, energy consumption and labor costs. They change because the link utilization can be increased and therefore incurred more costs. The decision of potential adopters about the acquisition of satellite-based positioning systems is connected with the offer of the Supplier (in this case the manufacturer of the SATLOC system). They offer the tracking units for a certain price, which is influenced by the decision itself (therefore mass regression is implemented in the market mechanism). The operators demand customized requirements to the system units; forming a connection to the manufacturers, who considers the implementation of the requirements. In the area of Supplier, the number of units sold and location is interesting because the higher the number , the price can be reduced per unit and a lower price has a positive effect on sales. For the pricing of the influence of manufacturing, engineering and certification financing costs is observed. The third area of customer influenced by the decision process, which is taken in the field of operator by revenue to be generated by the transportation of goods and passengers. In addition, the operators can offer their own customers more services through the increased link utilization and possible improved passenger information systems. Thus, the Customer buying of tickets and the sales of passenger transportation volumes in freight transport is important and part of the model. The revenue generated from the exogenous variables is taken into account, such as the current price that must be paid for transport. A complete overview of the integrated endogenous and exogenous variables is provided in figure 3.
Fig. 3. System Dynamics Model Variables.
5.Perceptions from the System Dynamics Model
The model has been undertaken a sensitivity analysis in order to verify it. The central insights into the market mechanisms for providing a profound market entry strategy are presented in the following, beginning with success factors for an increased market diffusion of satellite-based localization technologies, and also breakdown factors, which will hamper a successful market entry.
5.1.Success Factors for Market Diffusion
Factors that positively influence the system, are necessary for the formulation of sales arguments and the development of a successful market strategy. Here, attention is drawn to the curves of variables showing a positive trend in the market diffusion process. The variable Total Revenue Operator that indicates the profit of
the operator is identified as such a factor . This factor takes into account both the revenue and the cost of the tracking system; so a statement can be made whether the equipment of trains with the satellite-based positioning system is worthwhile or not. It has been neglected in the model configuration that some variables in the real world can only take integer values (e.g. number of people, number of puffs). This exists even in the early life cycle stages. In the beginning the necessary investment is expected with losses, which can be compensated throughout time due to operative cost savings by using GNSS technology. However, the course shows that profits can be increased through the use of the tracking system over time. One indication of this is the Total
Revenue Rate, which reaches a significant higher value than in the beginning of the simulation. For the increased
sales numbers due to increasing transportation of people and goods, which are based on the increase in the attractiveness of rail transport, can be shown in the simulation. This increase is achieved with the introduction of the positioning system at an early development stage, which is why the following variables are used as arguments for the acquisition of such a system:
• Attractiveness of Railway for Passengers • Attractiveness of Railway for Freight Customers.
The two attractiveness variables are in turn influenced by parameters that also increase with an increase in the attractiveness and make the benefits of satellite-based positioning system significantly better:
• greater distance range (Distances for Passengers / Freight) by higher link utilization (Track Capacity), and
• punctuality of trains (Punctuality ).
With this approach the parameters of the model were identified that positively affect the system dynamics and contribute to an increase in the variable Total Revenue Operator, which is positively influencing the decision making process for acquiring SATLOC technology. The described system behaviour is exemplified in figure 4.
Fig. 4. Operator's Total Revenue.
5.2.Breakdown Factors for Market Diffusion
As already mentioned, there are factors that cause a change to a negative system behaviour to an unwanted development. These factors are called breakdown factors for market diffusion. It is therefore important to assess the diffusion process, for example the impact of increased ticket prizing to characterize the next key factors that are particularly stimulating the marketing activities for adopting GNSS in railways.
Since an increase in the price per unit delays the market penetration , this variable was awarded a breakdown effect on the system behaviour. The operating costs affect the revenue of the operators significantly , which in
turn has an influence on the operational attractiveness and thus negatively on the adoption rate. Consequently, a cost increase results in a reduced turnover and therefore this parameter acts negatively on the system behaviour, too. Among the operating expenses, the average energy, infrastructure and personnel costs are summarized. These parameters were successively increased by 30%. The increase in energy costs results in a at the beginning in an increase and then changes to falling into negative revenue of the operators. This requires a non-lockable adoption process, that is due to the declining acceptance of the new product. If the maintenance of the infrastructure increases, it is not of importance for the market penetration, as the share of these costs is relatively low. Likewise, the system behaves with rising personnel costs: There is no significant difference in market penetration recognizable. The operator can only act on the personnel costs through wage increases or reductions, so these costs are taken into account during a viewing in the subsequent process steps. With rising energy costs, the only recommendation is to compensate for the lost revenue when ticket price increases.
The prices for passenger and freight transport have also been identified as variables that negatively affect the system behaviour and market penetration. An increase in prices leads to a reduction in the attractiveness of rail transport. This development is not positive in the long run, since the general objective to enable a congestion reduction cannot be achieved. An increase in price increases sales, although fewer customers use rail transport, which caused an earlier market penetration. Lowering the price increases the attractiveness and thus the number of customers, which is a positive development caused . However, cannot compensate for the damage caused by the reduction of prices taking losses, the increased number of customers, which affects the penetration negatively. With the variables that determine the price, it is variables that allow the manipulation by the operator, which is why they are considered in the further consideration. The development of the adoption rate is highlighted in figure 5. Furthermore one can see the changes in the adoption rate due to increase or decrease of unit costs.
Fig. 5. Influence " Price per Unit " on " rate of adoption ".
6.Conclusions and Future Work
This paper highlights the specialties of the railway market throughout Europe for an introduction of innovative train control systems using a satellite-based localization technology and provides a formal System Dynamics model for identification of so-called success factors for product introduction.. Especially the market for low traffic density lines is attractive for low cost train control systems since the profit margins are very low. The actual train management on such lines is managed very ineffectively since it is based on simple communication technology. Also cost-intensive technologies for train control on LTD lines, e.g. ETCS, are not affordable for some European markets. Therefore the SATLOC project aims at providing a high-safety train control system at low cost for low traffic density railway networks. For a successful market introduction and high penetration rate a profound market analysis and success factor identification is necessary. This is done by a systemic approach, in
this case a System Dynamics model., taking into account key market actors, such as railway operators, infrastructure managers, as well as private and business customers. The market mechanisms are put together in a market diffusion model, based on the Bass model for product diffusion processes. Finally the model simulation shows so-called success factors, as well as breakdown factors, which must be taken into account for an efficient market penetration strategy. Key success factors are the increased railway attractiveness due to the increased track capacity via a SATLOC systems, as well as the improved service quality. This highlights the need that technologies like the highly innovative SATLOC train control system, must provide a significant impact for railway customers, but also for railway operators. Due to the application of SATLOC it is expected, that LTD lines are capable to offer more and wider routes. Furthermore train control will be improved, so that the railway mode becomes more available and reliable at the same time. But it must be said, that of course new innovative technologies introduced to railway market, may have negative impacts if applied in the wrong way. Thus a negative system behaviour is expected by a increase in ticketing and transportation cost, not adapted to the local income rates. If transportation costs increase too much, private and business customers will switch to alternative transportation modes, like road. But the increase of personnel and maintenance costs can be covered by the better effectiveness and performance of low traffic railway transportation coupled with increased numbers of customers. The model shows that a first market adoption is expected after 36 months of product introduction by railway suppliers. This due time can be shortened by lowering the units prices for the new train control system, but this decision is dependent on the target-costing of each individual railway supplier and operator.
To conclude, innovation to railways are always a challenging task; but the innovation introduction can be improved by profound market analyses and business models that are capable of highlighting important assists and characteristics about the innovation itself and help shaping an effective market and migration strategy.
Acknowledgements
This work could be performed due to the support by the SATLOC consortium, namely the UIC, RCCF, FH Wels and Siemens AG. Further information are available in the deliverable D4.1.2 of the SATLOC project.
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