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Summary  Report  from  the  Second  International  Conference  on  

 

Cities  at  Risk:  Building  Adaptive  Capacities  for  Managing  

Climate  Change  Risks  in  Asian  Coastal  Cities  (

CAR  II

)  

 

 

 

Prepared  by  the  International  START  Secretariat  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1.  Introduction  

 

Asian   coastal   cities   are   increasingly   vulnerable   to   flooding   disasters   resulting   from   the   combined   effects  of  climate  change  (e.g.,  sea  level  rise,  intensified  storms,  and  storm  surges),  land  subsidence   and  rapid  urban  growth.  As  a  part  of  the  ongoing  multi-­‐year  START  program  entitled  “Cities  at  Risk”   (CAR),  which  aims  to  reduce  risks  and  vulnerabilities  of  Asian  coastal  cities  brought  on  by  climate   change  and  urban  growth,  a  series  of  international  conferences  are  envisaged.    

 

The  first  such  conference,  CAR  I,  was  held  in  Bangkok  in  February  2009  with  support  from  APN,  ICSU   and   Ibaraki   University   (Japan).   Following  CAR   I,   a   number   of   priority   follow-­‐on   activities   were   organized   to   advance   conference   recommendations1.   These   included   a   “Training   of   Trainers”   and   adaptation  visioning  exercise  in  Bangkok,  Thailand  in  June  2009;  an  international  training  workshop   on  “Climate  Change  Vulnerability  Assessment  and  Urban  Development  Planning  for  Asian  Coastal  Cities”   also   held   in   Bangkok   in   August   2010;   five-­‐year   funding   from   the   Canadian   Tri-­‐Councils   to   expand  

CAR-­‐related   activities   in   both   Asia   and   Africa;   and   program   support   from   the   US   Agency   for   International  Development  for  city-­‐specific  CAR  training  and  communication  activities.  Throughout   the  region,  active  CAR  teams  continue  to  design  and  implement  risk  and  vulnerability  assessments   and   other   activities   as   they   strive   to   better   integrate   climate   change   adaptation   and   urban   development   in   their   respective   cities.  CAR  program   activities   have   made   important   strides   in   contributing   to   and   advancing   preliminary   efforts   of   the   international   ICSU   program   on   Integrated   Research  for  Disaster  Risk  (IRDR),2  and  CAR  partners  were  instrumental  in  supporting  establishment   of  the  first  IRDR  International  Centre  of  Excellence  at  the  Academy  of  Sciences  in  Taipei3.    

 

A   second   international   conference   on   “Cities   at   Risk:   Building   Adaptive   Capacities   for   Managing   Climate  Change  Risks  in  Asian  Coastal  Cities  (CAR  II)”  was   held   11-­‐13   April   2011   in   Taipei,   Taiwan.   Sponsored  by  the  IRDR  International  Centre  of  Excellence  in  Taipei  and  hosted  by  the  Academy  of   Sciences  (Taipei),  the  conference  sought  to  assess  progress  of  CAR  city  teams  in  advancing  program   related   efforts;   to   consolidate   a   network   of   researchers,   decision-­‐makers   and   institutions   in   the   region;   and   to   identify   program  priorities   for   the   next   several   years.   CAR   II   was   co-­‐organized   by   START,  the  East  West  Center  (EWC)  and  the  Coastal  Cities  at  Risk  (CCaR)  project.    

 

This   report   summarizes   work   undertaken   with   regards   to  CAR   II   and   synthesizes   messages   and   recommendations  emerging  from  conference  discussions,  including  identified  knowledge  needs  and   proposed  future  activities.  This  report  is  prepared  by  the  International  START  Secretariat  on  behalf   of  all  CAR  II  organizers  and  participants.  Questions  about  the  report  and/or  the  CAR  program  can  be   directed  to  Clark  Seipt  at  [email protected].  

   

2.  Methodology  

 

The  CAR  II  conference  was  co-­‐convened  by  the  International  START  Secretariat,  the  East  West  Center   (EWC)  of  the  University  of  Hawaii  and  CCaR.  The  Integrated  Research  on  Disaster  Risk  (IRDR)   International  Centre  of  Excellence  (ICoE)  in  Taipei,  Taiwan,  sponsored  the  conference.  Local   conference  host  was  the  Academia  Sinica,  Taipei.    

 

2.1  Development  of  the  workshop  program    

Prior  to  the  conference,  a  CAR  II  Steering  Committee,  comprised  of  representatives  from  all  co-­‐ organizing  institutions  and  IRDR,  developed  a  detailed  conference  program  that  included  plenary    

                                                                                                               

For more information about CAR I and conference recommendations, please visit www.start.org and download the CAR I Final Report.

Please see www.irdrinternational.org for more information and to download the IRDR Science Plan. Please see www.irdrinternational.org for more information.  

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sessions,  parallel  paper  sessions  and  break-­‐out  participant  working  groups.  Conference  sessions   were  designed  to  address  and  catalyze  discussion  on  the  following  broad  themes:  

 

• Knowledge  base  for  risk  characterization  and  communication   • Assessing  risk  and  vulnerability  in  Asian  cities  

• Developing  urban  adaptation  strategies   • Adaptation  measures  and  practices    

Conference  themes  that  cut  across  all  sessions  included  capacity  building  needs  for  climate  change   risk  reduction  and  adaptation  governance  and  policy.  Participant  paper  presentations  demonstrated   research   advances   stimulated   by   CAR-­‐related   efforts   as   well   as   remaining   knowledge   and   capacity   building   needs.     Paper   sessions   were   designed   to   delegate   shared   responsibility   to   researchers   as   well   as   practitioners   in   leading   conference   discussions.   Copies   of   all   conference   presentations   are   available  for  download  on  the  START  website  at  www.start.org/programs/cities-­‐at-­‐risk.  

 

Subsequent   to   paper   presentation   sessions,   conference   participants   collectively   identified   major   messages   emerging   from   the   week’s   discussions   (see   Section   3).   Elements   of   those   messages   were   combined  to  construct  two  priority  themes,  to  be  investigated  by  participant  working  groups:      

• Risk  and  vulnerability  assessment  and  communication,  and  

• Integration  of  urban  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate  change  adaptation.    

Incorporation   of   breakout   working   groups   into   the   conference   program   permitted   focused   exploration   of   critical   questions,   relevant   to   conference   themes,   by   smaller   groups   of   participants.   Each  working  group  was  tasked  with  preparing  collective  insight  on  the  following  questions,  as  they   related  to  the  group’s  theme:  

 

1. What  are  3-­‐4  illustrative  examples  of  common  challenges/barriers  with  respect  to   your  group’s  topic?  

2. What  are  specific  priority  actions  that  would  serve  to  improve  existing  practices  in   the  short  term?  

3. What  new  methods,  tools  and/or  partnerships  are  needed  to  address  and  overcome   identified  challenges?  In  this  regard,  what  are  specific  examples  of  opportunities  for   research,  education  and  training  that  would  help  to  move  these  forward?  

4. In   what   innovative   ways   can   the  CAR   program,   together   with   its   partners,   help   to   support  and  sustain  such  actions?  

 

CAR   II  working   groups   reported   their   recommendations   to   the   plenary   on   the   last   day   of   the   conference.  Major  recommendations  and  outcomes  of  the  workshop  are  documented  in  Section  4.      

2.2  Selection  of  conference  participants    

Nearly   70   researchers,   graduate   students,   urban   planners   and   practitioners,   disaster   management   professionals   and   representatives   from   government,   donor,   development   and   private   sector   organizations   participated   in   the  CAR   II  conference.   Participants   were   a   mix   of   invited   speakers,   paper   presenters   selected   via   a   competitive   application   process   and   representatives   from   partner   institutions.   Invited   speakers   were   identified   by   the  CAR   II   Steering   Committee,   with   input   from   regional   subject   matter   experts,   and   were   tasked   with   reviewing   and   catalyzing   discussion   on   the   identified   paper   session   themes.   A   Call   for   Papers,   disseminated   widely   throughout   the   region   via   partners’   list-­‐serves   and   websites,   invited   abstracts   from   regional   scientists   and   practitioners   for   papers  relevant  to  the  conference  themes.  Staff  at  EWC  and  START  reviewed  submitted  abstracts  and   selected   final   participants.   Partial   or   full   travel   support   (including   airfare,   accommodations   and   a   modest  daily  subsistence  allowance  (DSA)  while  in  Taipei)  was  provided  to  selected  participants.    

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2.3  Management  of  conference  logistics      

The  Academia  Sinica,  as  local  conference  host,  collaborated  with  the  International  START  Secretariat   to   manage   conference   logistics,   including   all   correspondence   and   arrangements   with   regards   to   conference   venue,   catering   and   participant   accommodations.   Conference   organizers   at   START   and   EWC  communicated  with  participants  to  guide  preparations  of  presentations.  Participant  travel,  DSA   payments  and  other  conference  related  reimbursements  were  managed  by  the  International  START   Secretariat.  Members  of  the  CAR  II  Steering  Committee  actively  participated  in  conference  sessions.      

 

3.  Messages  from  CAR  II  discussions  

 

CAR  II  participants  collectively  identified  major  messages  emerging  from  conference  discussions.  The   messages,  described  below,  became  the  foundation  for  conference  recommendations  with  regards  to   future  research  and  knowledge  needs  and  follow-­‐on  activities.    

 

A  first  step  in  building  awareness  of  adaptation  and  adaptation  options  may  be  

changing  the  perspectives  of  those  who  must  work  together  to  advance  common   goals.    

 

Urban  systems  are  natural  and  social.  Climate  change  and  climate  change  adaptation   must  be  integrated  with  development  and  development  challenges  –  the  two  cannot   operate  separately.  Indeed,  current  vulnerabilities  and  recent  disasters  or  extreme   events  are  an  important  catalyst  for  exploring  and  improving  risk  management  and   adaptation   in   the   context   of   sustainable   development.     There   is   also   need   to   harmonize   disaster   management,   climate   change   adaptation   and   development   so   that   these   traditionally   distinct   communities   and   fields   are   better   able   to   understand   each   other   and   act   in   complement.   A   stronger   relationship   between   scientific   decision-­‐making   and   incident   management,   for   example,   during   and   immediately   after   a   disaster   can   facilitate   strong   recovery.   The   positive   role   of   science  in  aiding  development,  managing  risk  and  reducing  vulnerability  is  a  feature   of   developing   country   adaptation.   That   said,   we   must   recognize   that   science   and   specialized  expertise  can  inform  but  will  not  dictate  the  adaptation  choices  that  are   made.      

 

 

We   must   rethink   our   approaches   to   risk   and   vulnerability   assessment   so   that  

they   are   better   designed   to   capture   and   operate   within   the   complexity   of   systems,  particularly  urban  systems.    

 

Climate  change  and/or  natural  hazards  are  most  often  only  one  of  multiple  stressors   influencing   a   system.   It   is   imperative   to   take   into   account   the   interplay   of   these   multiple   stressors   and   the   potential   rippling   impacts   –   both   physical   and   socio-­‐ economic  in  nature  –  when  considering  overall  vulnerability  and  adaptive  capacity   of   the   system   as   a   whole,   including   its   people   and   institutions.   This   must   include   investigation   of   both   the   direct   risks   and   impacts   (e.g.,   flood   risks,   flood   events,   infrastructure  damage)  as  well  as  intangible  and  indirect  risks  and  impacts,  such  as   those   related   to   psychological   health   and   risk   perceptions.   Furthermore,   there   is   need   for   better   understanding   of   how   our   changing   environment,   itself,   impacts   risks  and  our  options  for  reducing  that  risk.  This  will  require  integrated  approaches   to   understanding   and   managing   risks,   particularly   in   urban   settings   where   the   linkages   between   social   vulnerability   and   urban   development   patterns   are   strong   and   dynamic.   This,   in   turn,   demands   stronger   linkages   between   physical/   engineering  approaches  and  social  science  related  approaches  to  problem  solving.      

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There   currently   exist   multiple   approaches   to   defining   and   measuring   risk   and   vulnerability  (e.g.,  causal,  mapping,  indicators,  etc.).  Elements  of  these  approaches,   particularly   when   combined,   offer   the   potential   to   act   in   complement   and   give   a   fuller   picture   of   context,   stressors   and   options   for   decision-­‐making.   For   example,   while   vulnerability   mapping   helps   prioritize   geographical   areas,   allocations   of   resources  and  the  like,  unfolding  a  causal  process  of  vulnerability  may  help  provide   recommendations   for   how   to   reduce   risk,   exposure,   etc.   at   different   points   along   that   process.   The   integrated   nature   of   these   stressors   requires   integrated   approaches   to   understanding   the   issues   and   to   preparing   for,   reducing   and   responding   to   risk.   This   must   involve   carrying   out   simple   risk   and   vulnerability   assessments   as   well   as   systemic   assessments   that   include   consideration   of   cascading  risks,  both  spatially  and  temporally.  Such  approaches  will  support  better   understanding   of   the   complex   processes   at   play   between   social   vulnerability   and   urban  development.  For  instance,  some  change  may  occur  gradually;  other  change   can  occur  suddenly.  What  does  this  mean  for  a  system  and  do  current  approaches  to   understanding  risk  and  vulnerability,  with  the  aim  of  ultimately  informing  decision-­‐ making,   capture   this   complexity   effectively   enough?   Effective   approaches   to   doing   so  must  be  designed,  and  capacity  to  carry  out  those  approaches  must  be  built.  One   must   also   consider   how   to   effectively   incentivize   ongoing   integration   of   research   and  decision-­‐making  to  inspire  social  change.    

 

There   is   critical   need   for   useful   and   accessible   policy   relevant   analysis   of  

research  for  decision-­‐making.    

 

It  is  imperative  that  there  be  improved  understanding  of  the  varied  expectations  for   research  and  data  systems  as  well  as  the  ability  of  those  systems  to  fulfill  the  roles   they  are  called  to  play.  This  will  require  improvements  in  the  knowledge  and  data   itself   as   well   as   more   effective   approaches   to   packaging   and   communicating   that   knowledge.   Collaborative   learning   and   partnerships   are   also   shown   to   support   research  usefulness  and  usability.    

 

First,   there   is   need   for   better   data   and   better   databases.   Current   databases   are   insufficient  to  support  understanding  of  compound  risks  and  disasters.  Differences   in   scale,   irregular   data   maintenance   and   inconsistency   with   other   relevant   information  or  information  sources  are  common  obstacles  that  inhibit  the  usability   of  data  that  is  currently  available.  Weak  historical  records  that  prevent  recognition   of   possible   patterns   of   change   may   also   be   resulting   in   underestimation   of   risk.   Second,   useful   research   must   map   to   or   in   some   way   clearly   support   decision-­‐ making   needs.   Research   that   is   designed,   from   the   beginning,   to   respond   to   knowledge   needs   holds   immediate   potential   to   motivate   and   facilitate   its   own   application.   Research   and/or   data   must   also   be   easily   accessible   and   presented   in   clear   and   concise   ways.   Scientific   perspectives   should   be   validated   with   local   experiences,  when  possible.      

 

Regardless  of  the  approach  selected,  research  communication  efforts  must  focus  on   specific   end   users   and   go   beyond   technical   components.   With   specific   regards   to   policy   and   planning,   communication   of   the  costs  of   adaptation   must   be   improved,   including  the  importance  and  potential  benefits  of  long-­‐term  investment  as  well  as   the  costs  of  non-­‐action.  Multiple  communication  tools,  techniques  and  methods  may   prove   useful,   depending   on   context,   goals   and   targeted   audiences.   Dialogues   involving   collaborative   learning   can   help   resolve   different   viewpoints   and   approaches,   and   fostering   multi-­‐stakeholder   engagement   throughout   the   research   process  is  critical  to  strengthening  coordination  and  enhancing  resident  capacity  to   advance  follow-­‐on  activities  and  initiatives.    Sharing  knowledge  and  experiences  can   help  researchers  and  stakeholders  to  learn  from  one  another  and  together  link  and  

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prioritize   considerations   for   governments   and   policymakers.   Even   when   governments   commit   to   drafting   climate   change   and   disaster   related   action   plans   and  policies  for  their  countries,  those  influenced  by  related  risks  and  vulnerabilities   must  be  actively  involved  in  preparations,  planning  and  implementation.  Sustained   communication   and   collaboration   are   key   factors   that   will   enable   policy   relevant   analysis  and  informed  decision-­‐making.    

 

Together,   we   must   think   about   the   unthinkable,   prepare   for   the   worst   and  

redefine  what  “preparedness”  really  means.    

 

Adaptation   is   a   dynamic   process   of   adjustment.   If   policies,   plans   and   frameworks   are  not  also  dynamic  –  this  includes  ready  for  as  well  as  responsive  to  past,  current   and   potential   risks   and   events   –   how   can   they   be   expected   to   be   compatible?   Monitoring   and   evaluation   of   ongoing   efforts,   with   application   of   lessons   learned   and   related   adjustments,   where   appropriate,   is   a   critical   part   of   such   an   iterative   process.  We  can  learn  from  our  own  history  and  the  history  of  others,  but  we  must   also  seek  to  understand  unconditional  events  and  plan  for  new  phenomena  that  may   bring  unprecedented  risks  and  vulnerabilities.  We  must  prepare  ourselves  and  our   communities  for  the  worst-­‐case  scenario.  Doing  so  will  challenge  us  to  broaden  our   understanding   of   what   being   prepared   means,   inspire   us   to   look   for   new   ways   to   solve  old  problems  and  fuel  the  translation  of  capacities  into  capabilities  and  actions.      

 

4.  Conference  recommendations  and  outcomes  

 

Workshop   participants,   as   a   whole,   drafted   a   series   of   actionable   recommendations   that   were   intended   to   carry   forward   activities   beyond   the  CAR   II  conference   and   beyond   the   current  CAR   network.  Recommendations  were  aligned  with  the  two  priority  themes  identified  by  participants  to   guide  working  group  discussions:  1)  Risk  and  vulnerability  assessment  and  communication  and  2)   Integration  of  urban  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate  change  adaptation.    

 

4.1  Risk  and  vulnerability  assessment  and  communication    

CAR   II  participants   identified   the   following   as   major   challenges   that   currently   inhibit   collective   understanding   and   action   with   regards   to   risk   and   vulnerability   assessment   and   communication   efforts  in  Asian  coastal  cities:  

 

Problems  of  scale  among  the  various  sectors  and  players  that  overlap  in  planning  for,  

managing  and  responding  to  urban  risks.  Different  communities  of  knowledge  (e.g.,   climate   science,   disaster   management   professionals,   urban   planning   and   government)   understand   and   communicate   about   issues   at   different   scales,   both   temporally  and  spatially.    

Failure  to  develop  and  effectively  apply  communication  strategies,  tools  and  methods  

for   audiences   with   different   social   conditions,   lifestyles,   cultures   and   the   like.   Communicating   about   science   with   policymakers   is   different   than   communicating   about   science   with   other   scientists.   Scientists   must   craft   messages   and   delivery   techniques   that   serve   to   communicate   the   points   they   wish   to   convey   but   also   attend   to   the   specific   strength,   capabilities   and   interests   of   targeted   audience.   Different  communication  approaches  are  required  for  different  audiences.    

Lack  of  data  and  weaknesses  in  data  interpretation.  There  is  a  need  to  make  strong   enough  information  available  to  decision-­‐makers  that  will  raise  their  awareness  and   understanding   but   not   make   them   feel   hopeless   or   irrelevant.   Providing   decision-­‐ makers  with  a  respected,  single  resource  that  collects  and  makes  available  a  range   of   data   and   a   platform   for   exchanging   experiences,   lessons   and   challenges   may   be  

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useful   in   this   respect;   many   platforms   are   currently   available   and   should   be   assessed  to  determine  if  they  offer  this  service.    

Unreasonable   expectations   of   the   physical   science   community.   The   earth   system   is   dynamic  and  uncertain;  urban  systems  exist  and  operate  within  this  dynamism  and   uncertainty.  Although  the  capabilities  of  science  to  project  change  and  the  potential   impacts   of   such   change   has   substantially   improved   in   recent   years,   including   scenarios-­‐based   knowledge   of   disasters   and   extreme   events,   it   cannot   predict   events   or   consequences   with   100%   accuracy.   Communication   and   partnership   between   science   and   user   communities   that   promotes   shared   understanding   of   knowledge  needs  as  well  as  current  capabilities  for  knowledge  generation  can  help   close  this  gap.    

Noting  these  challenges,  CAR  II  participants  recommended  the  following  priority  actions  to  improve   existing  practices  for  risk  and  vulnerability  assessment  and  communication  in  the  short  term:    

Identify   decision-­‐makers’   knowledge   needs   and   prioritize   those   needs   in   regional  

research   initiatives.   For   example,   national   governments   may   need   standardized   indices  for  understanding  risk  and  vulnerability;  NGOs  and  civic  groups  may  want   something   more   flexible.   Only   when   research   and   decision-­‐making   communities   communicate  and  collaborate  can  such  needs  be  better  understood  and  acted  upon.     • Help   stakeholders   to   understand   uncertainties.   Uncertainty   is   a   very   important  

condition  when  dealing  with  risk  management.  Helping  stakeholders  to  appreciate   prevailing   uncertainties   and   to   learn   how   to   operate   within   those   uncertainties   –   rather  than  not  acting  because  of  them  –  will  promote  more  informed  and  effective   risk  management.    

Promote   appreciation   for   the   complexity   of   the   situations   that   we   are   facing.   Understanding   and   operating   within   uncertainties   is   only   part   of   the   complex   thinking   that   is   required   to   address   today’s   risks   and   impending   threats.   Indeed,   communities   may   find   themselves   facing   bigger   challenges   than   they’ve   ever   confronted.   These   may   include,   for   example,   relocation   of   entire   populations   exposed   to   severe   risks,   reconstitution   of   elaborate   social   networks   and/or   attendant   economic,   social   and   health   issues.   Changing   the   mindset   of   decision-­‐ makers  to  move  away  from  simple  logic  to  more  systemic  and  longer-­‐term  planning   and  actions  will  be  critical.  This  is  particularly  true  of  policymaking.  Doing  so  will  be   an   evolving   process   that   must   encompass   future   threats   and   future   systems   and   include   effective   ways   of   bringing   together   communities   of   science,   policy   and   practice  to  enable  shared  understanding  and  action.    

 

In  the  longer  term,  participants  recommended  the  following  to  address  and  overcome  identified   challenges  and  nurture  opportunities  for  research,  education  and  training:  

 

Issue  regular  statements  from  CAR  city  teams.  Messages  released  by  CAR  city  teams   about  their  work  in  their  respective  cities  could  help  raise  visibility  of  CAR  related   efforts  and  encourage  others  in  the  region  to  connect  with  that  work  and/or  use  it   as   a   resource   for   their   own   city-­‐related   efforts.   Statements   could   include,   for   example,   updates   on   progress   and   achievements   with   regards   to   city-­‐related   research   or   assessments,   summaries   of   research   results   and   recommendations,   announcements   for   new   initiatives,   including   education   and   training   activities   and/or  dissemination  of  resources  and  materials.  In  addition  to  broader  awareness   raising,  such  statement  would  also  serve  to  support  sustained  communication  and   exchange   between   CAR   city   teams.   Dissemination   of   the   messages   could   be   facilitated  by  the  CAR  program  and  related  networks.    

Organize   and   facilitate   systematic   visioning   exercises.   CAR   program   partners,   together   with  CAR  city   teams,   are   the   perfect   team   to   bring   together   people   from  

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different   backgrounds,   institutions,   roles   and   responsibilities   to   investigate   risk   management   and   adaptation   options   in   their   cities.   Such   exercises   must   be   innovative   and   specifically   targeted   to   each   city   and   offer   substantial   potential   for   enabling   collective   understanding   and   improved   communication   between   the   parties  that  participate.    

Promote   dynamic   vulnerability   mapping.   A   common   approach   to   standard   vulnerability   mapping   is   to   assess   individual   vulnerabilities   of   a   system   and   then   combine   those   vulnerabilities   through   a   process   of   principal   component   analysis.   This   practice,   while   useful   and   informative,   is   based   on   the   summation   of   static   aspects   of   the   targeted   system.   There   is   overwhelming   need   for   more   dynamic   approaches  to  understanding  systemic  vulnerability,  particularly  when  it  comes  to   capturing  cascading  components  of  risk,  exposure  and  adaptive  capacity  over  space,   time  and  stakeholder  group.  

 

CAR   II  participants   also   recommended   that   the  CAR   program   consider   supporting   and   sustaining   these   and   other   actions   by   helping   city   teams   and   others   in   the   research   community   to   cultivate   better  relationships  with  communicators  and  experts  in  behavioral  change.  Better  understanding  of   behavior   will   be   required   for   supporting   and   advancing   the   dynamic   process   of   adaptation.   Communication  between  various  communities  of  knowledge  is  what  will  inspire  change.  Integrating   these  types  of  expertise  into  future  CAR  activities  must  be  a  priority.    

 

In  addition,  the  CAR  program  should  seek  to  ensure  that  regional  expertise  in  land   subsidence  and   issues   related   to   vertical   displacement   of   cities   is   effectively   engaged   in   investigations   of   risk   management,  adaptation  and  development  in  Asian  coastal  cities  at  risk.  This  stressor,  as  part  of  a   multi-­‐stressor,  dynamic  environment,  cannot  be  addressed  in  isolation.  The  private  sector  –  whether   insurance,   professional   engineering,   foundations   or   others   –   must   also   be   brought   to   the   table,   perhaps   in   innovative   ways,   as   a   partner   in   building   the   capacity   of   cities   to   manage   and   adapt   to   climate-­‐related  risks.    

 

4.2  Integration  of  urban  development  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate  change   adaptation  

 

CAR   II  participants   identified   the   following   as   major   challenges   that   currently   inhibit   collective   understanding   and   action   with   regards   to   integrating   urban   development   planning,   disaster   risk   management  and  climate  change  adaptation:  

 

Ensuring  that  policy-­‐makers  receive  highest  quality  technical  information—and  that  

all   relevant   agencies   are   using   the   same   data.   Policy-­‐makers   need   high   quality   information  that  is  consistent,  valid  and  reliable  and  that  is  conveyed  to  them  in  a   clear  and  concise  fashion.  Having  such  will  enable  them  to  promote  public  decisions   that  better  reflect  community  exposure  to  risks  associated  with  climate  change  and   disasters.   Simple   communication   of   the   information   is   not   sufficient,   however;   acting  on  such  knowledge  will  also  require  improved  understanding  and  analytical   skill  on  the  part  of  planners  and  other  professionals  who  advise  public  officials.     • Ensuring   that   the   information   received   by   policymakers   includes   careful   analysis   of  

the  potential  costs  of  adaptation.  This  critical  analysis  must  also  include  the  potential   costs  of  not  acting  to  reduce  and/or  manage  risks  associated  with  climate  change.     • Outdated  planning  and  management  systems.  In  some  countries  and  cities  across  the  

region,   laws   and   decisions   enacted   by   previous   generations   of   leaders   continue   to   govern  existing  planning  systems,  including,  for  example,  conventional  master  plans   for  cities  and  application  of  spatial  management  tools  such  as  zoning.  Many  times,   such  approaches  and  regulations  are  outdated  to  the  point  that  they  are  no  longer   flexible  enough  to  address  current  issues  and  threats.  Many  such  systems  are  also   not  designed  to  assess  and  act  on  community  risks  associated  with  the  longer-­‐term  

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time  scale  of  climate  change.  Indeed,  too  often  the  “master  plans”  for  cities  in  Asia   focus   too   much   on   promoting   local   economic   development,   do   not   anticipate   long   term   problems   likely   to   be   faced   by   the   community,   do   not   authorize   the   use   of   management   tools   that   offer   potential   to   more   effectively   address   climate   change   impacts   and   rely   too   heavily   on   past   assumptions   about   patterns   in   social   and   natural  relationships.    

Existing  plans  also  fail  to  address  systemic  or  cascading  risks  in  urban  environments.   Simple  risk  and  vulnerability  assessments,  which  contribute  to  the  current  state  of   knowledge  in  most  Asian  coastal  cities  at  risk,  do  not  include  and  are  not  focusing  on   the   sorts   of   compounding   risks   that   can   trigger   unanticipated   waves   of   impacts   across   an   urban   system.   There   is   urgent   need   to   move   toward   approaches   to   research  and  assessment  that  do  capture  these  aspects  of  vulnerability.      

Implementation   gaps   that   result   primarily   from   a   failure   to   ensure   that   the  

“implementers”   are   involved   in   the   planning   process.  Some   climate   change   risk   management   and   adaptation   strategies   may   offer   the   most   obvious   or   promising   technical  solution  but  face  resistance  from  those  charged  with  implementing  them   (e.g.,   public   officials,   communities,   others).   Among   the   strategies   for   reducing   the   gap   between   those   who   institute   policies   and   related   decisions   and   those   charged   with  putting  those  decisions  into  practice  is  to  ensure  that  these  implementers  are   involved  in  the  planning  and  decision  process  itself.  Shared  dialogue  and  sustained   collaboration   between   these   groups   is   imperative   if   all   parties   are   to   understand   and   agree   with   how   the   management   problem   is   defined,   the   urgency   for   intervention  and  the  strategy  to  be  taken.  Ensuring  that  the  implementers  have  the   technical  and  fiscal  resources  required  to  effectively  carry  out  collective  decisions  as   well   as   the   continuing   support   of   policymakers   are   also   critical   factors   to   enable   effective  implementation.    

Inadequate   governance   systems.  The   challenges   listed   above,   when   combined,   are   resulting  in  weak  governance  systems  that  repeatedly  exhibit  inadequate  inter-­‐  and   intra-­‐governmental   coordination   and   collaboration,   inability   to   incentivize   compliance   with   risk   reduction   strategies   and   poor   analytic   and   management   capacities.    

 

Noting  these  challenges,  CAR  II  participants  recommended  the  following  priority  actions  to  improve   existing  practices  for  integrating  urban  development  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate   change  adaptation  in  the  short  term:  

 

Create   case   studies   of   exemplary   planning   and   management   practices.  Examples   of   best   practices   that   have   succeeded   in   effectively   addressing   key   barriers   to   integrative  planning  and  risk  management  are  scattered  across  the  globe.  Compiling   a   collection   of   such   examples   and   making   them   available   to   policy   and   decision-­‐ makers   would   support   knowledge   sharing   among   people   and   places.   Such   a   collection  should  include  best  practices  for  risk  and  vulnerability  assessment  as  well   as   analyses   of   the   costs   of   adaptation   and   the   costs   of   non-­‐action.   Cases   on   alternative  governance  arrangements  and  how  they  have  or  have  not  succeeded  in   supporting  implementation  of  adaptation  strategies  would  also  be  useful.    

Develop  more  effective  strategies  for  engaging  vulnerable  communities  in  the  planning  

process.  Ensuring   consideration   of   local   knowledge   and   priorities   in   the   design   of   adaptation   strategies   is   critical.   This   includes   facilitating   effective   participation   of   those  actors  and  communities  tasked  with  implementing  such  plans.  Identifying  and   nurturing   informal   champions   as   leaders   within   such   groups   is   also   essential.   Failing  to  do  so  may  result  in  conflicting  understandings  of  priorities  or  approaches   and   potential   delays   in   or   resistance   to   implementation.   The   incorporation   of   iterative,   participatory   consultations   into   the   planning   process   can   enable   priority   sharing,  a  sense  of  inclusivity  and  community  buy-­‐in.    

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Develop  scenarios  of  long-­‐term  climate  change  impacts  to  use  as  a  basis  for  engaging  

with   stakeholders.   Scenarios   that   illustrate   low,   medium   and   high   risk   projections   for  inundation  of  existing  communities  in  the  year  2050,  for  example,  can  be  used  as   an  illustrative  starting  point  for  discussion  with  potentially  affected  groups.  Such  a   discussion   can   also   be   used   to   elicit   stakeholders’   identification   of   related   socio-­‐ economic  impacts  and  adaptation  options.    

Promote   review   and   revision   of   building   and   design   codes   and   land   use   planning  

standards   based   on   updated   risk   and   vulnerability   assessments.  As   conditions   and   experiences   within   an   urban   system   change   over   time,   existing   plans,   codes   and   standards  must  be  periodically  evaluated.  Revisions,  when  necessary,  must  build  on   knowledge  and  experiences  gained  to  ensure  relevance  and  reflectiveness.      

Create  phased  adaptation  plans.  Identification  of  short-­‐term,  “no  regrets”  adaptation   actions  that  build  on  existing  management  programs  can  be  a  first  step  in  educating   at-­‐risk   communities,   increasing   adaptation   effectiveness   and   catalyzing   readiness   for  longer-­‐term  collaborative  efforts  to  comprehensive  adaptation  strategies.  Early   adaptation   actions   are   likely   to   focus   primarily   on   accommodation   tools   (e.g.,   expanded  coastal  setbacks,  new  designation  of  hazard  zones,  more  rigorous  building   standards   in   high   risk   zones).   Longer-­‐term   adaptation   options   may   incorporate   strategies   that   are   more   costly   or   controversial   and   are   likely   to   involve   a   combination  of  actions  and  priorities.        

 

Recommended  methods,  tools  and  partnerships  to  overcome  challenges  related  to  integrating  urban   development  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate  change  adaptation  in  the  longer  term   included:  

 

Develop  and  implement  more  effective  systems  monitoring.  Monitoring  and  evaluation   of   the   design   and   implementation   of   policy   and   practices   related   to   climate   risk   management  must  be  expanded  and  improved  to  ensure  that  current  and  emerging   climate   change   threats   are   being   addressed   in   timely,   useful   and   effective   ways.   Successful  monitoring  and  evaluation  processes  also  support  reflective  learning  and   periodic  adjustments  to  policy  and  practices,  building  on  lessons  learned  from  both   achievements  and  challenges.  

Support   collaborative   research   opportunities   that   bring   together   researchers   and  

decision-­‐makers   from   the   beginning.   Such   research   should   aim   to   be   truly   collaborative   with   shared   leadership   in   design   and   implementation   so   that   the   experience  engenders  ownership  on  the  part  of  all  parties  and  a  shared  commitment   to  take  up  final  research  recommendations.    

Design   and   facilitate   training   and   capacity   building   programs   aimed   at   urban  

planners.   Linking   science   and   practitioner   communities   via   capacity   building   activities  specifically  targeted  to  professionals  offers  great  potential  with  regards  to   knowledge   exchange   and   partnership   building.   Activities   could   include   production   of   handbooks   and   facilitation   of   training   modules   on   key   adaptation   related   concepts   and   issues   that   are   directly   pertinent   to   planning   and   decision-­‐making.     Other   capacity   building   activities   might   focus   on   enhancing   specific   skills   or   competencies  that  would  support  improved  integration  of  planning  and  adaptation   and  could  be  transferred  to  other  colleagues  via  follow-­‐on  training,  to  be  led  by  the   practitioners   themselves.   Examples   include   transfer   of   technical   skills   (e.g.,   templates   for   developing   and   using   climate   change   scenarios   in   local   planning   processes)   and   training   in   the   use   of   conventional   and   nonconventional   communication  pathways  and  tools.        

 

CAR   II   participants   also   strongly   advised   that   substantial   improvements   in   integrating   urban   development  planning,  disaster  risk  management  and  climate  change  adaptation  would  likely  benefit   from  the  leadership  of  an  agency  dedicated  to  taking  on  this  monumental  task.  Such  an  institution  or  

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agency  would  take  on  different  forms  in  different  places  and  contexts  but  would  be  mandated  with   coordinating   such   integration.   Participants   acknowledged   that   this   would   not   be   an   easy   recommendation  to  fulfill  in  many  places.  In  Singapore,  Hong  Kong  or  other  city  state,  for  example,   such  an  arrangement  would  not  be  as  difficult,  even  logistically,  as  it  would  likely  be  in  bigger  states   or  nations  that  are  subdivided  differently.      

 

4.3  Innovative  ways  for  the  CAR  program  to  support  and  advance  recommendations    

Participants   agreed   that   the  CAR  program   is   well   positioned   to   motivate   and   support   follow-­‐on   activities  that  advance  recommendations  emerging  from  the  CAR  II  conference.  The  conference  itself   is   one   of   several   activities   that   contribute   to   a   longer-­‐term,   coordinated   effort   that   prioritizes   development  of  urban  adaptive  capacities  and  integration  of  science  and  policy  in  managing  climate   risks   in   Asia’s   coastal   megacities.   In   this   regard,   CAR  partners   were   encouraged   to   consider   conference  follow-­‐on  actions  that  included:  

 

Nurture  and  support  an  active  CAR  network  of  planners,  policymakers,  practitioners  

and   academics.  Activities   to   be   carried   out   by   and   within   such   a   network   could   include   development   and   exchange   of   training   and   curriculum   materials,   case   studies   (like   those   recommended   by  CAR  II  working   groups)   and   innovative   ideas   with   regards   to   research,   education,   communication   and   outreach.   The   network   could   be   encouraged   to   link   with   other   existing   networks   (e.g.,   Mangroves   for   the   Future,   ICLEI,   Engineers   Canada,   the   Climate   Change   Adaptation   Knowledge   Platform   for   Asia,   regional   planners’   associations)   and   might   even   consider   organizing   learning   workshops   for   both   practitioners   and   academics.   The   CAR   program   could   serve   as   network   convener,   potentially   offering   a   “node”   in   the   region  to  manage  sustained  communication,  interaction  and  relevant  activities  and   logistics.    

Foster  integrative,  collaborative  research  within  the  region.  Knowledge  and  capacity   needs   are   identified   and   prioritized   in   each   of   the   conferences,   workshops   and   training   programs   that   the   CAR   program   facilitates.   This   insight   offers   huge   potential  to  inform  regional  research  and  program  development.  CAR  partners  were   strongly   advised   to   continue   striving   to   support   research   and   related   capacity   building  efforts  in  South  and  Southeast  Asia;  research  that  investigates  knowledge   gaps  and/or  more  controversial  topics  was  particularly  encouraged  (e.g.,  retreat  and   relocation  as  adaptation  strategies).    

Disseminate  and  scale  up  program  recommendations  and  results  at  the  global  scale.   Conference   participants   emphasized   that  CAR   recommendations,   research   results,   achievements  and  outcomes  must  be  shared  more  broadly.  After  each  conference  or   event,   emerging   messages   should   be   broadcast   in   ways   that   clearly   communicate   results   but   that   also   attract   attention   to   the   program,   its   participants   and   related   achievements.  CAR   II  participants   encouraged   program   partners   to   organize   or   participate   in   side   events   at   global   conferences   like   the   UNFCCC   COP   or   ICLEI   to   share   such   messages;   there   might   also   be   a   role   for  CAR   in   new   ICSU   initiates   on  

Future  Earth.    

Consider   program   connections   to   and   complementarities   with   disaster   related   fields  

and  initiatives  like  those  supported  by  UNISDR  and  others.  CAR  activities  often  focus   on   climate   change,   adaptation   and   urban   development   but   obvious   and   necessary   complementarities   exist   between   such   themes   and   disaster   risk   reduction.     Connections   to   the   new   ICSU   program   on  Integrated   Research   for   Disaster   Risk   (IRDR)  were  strongly  recommended,  particularly  because  of  the  newly  established   IRDR  International  Centre  of  Excellence  (ICoE)  in  Taipei  and  its  support  for  the  CAR   II  conference.   Recommendations   from   the   conference   should   be   reported   to   the   ICoE’s  Advisory  Board,  with  the  suggestion  that  CAR  be  used  as  a  possible  unifying   theme  for  center  activities.    

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5.  Next  steps

 

 

Conference   follow-­‐on   activities   are   underway,   and   program   partners   are   committed   to   advancing  

CAR  II  recommendations.      

Enabled  by  funding  from  the  US  Agency  for  International  Development  (US-­‐AID)  to  START,  new  city-­‐ specific  CAR  activities  are  being  initiated  across  Southeast  Asia.  The  first  of  these  activities  is  being   piloted   in   North   Coastal   Jakarta,   Indonesia.   Collaborative   activities   include   city-­‐specific   research,   training   and   communication   opportunities   that   build   on   previous  CAR   experiences   and   respond   to   city   needs   that   are   being   identified   by   way   of   locally   organized   and   facilitated   science-­‐policy   dialogues.    Additional  activities  are  expected  to  begin  in  at  least  two  more  cities  in  2012.  As  efforts   progress,  city  teams  will  come  together  to  explore  key  insights  and  lessons  emerging  from  their  cities   as  well  as  implications  of  these  lessons  learned  for  climate  change  adaptation  efforts  in  urban  area   across  Asia  and  elsewhere  in  the  developing  world.    

 

A  new  program  of  action  under  discussion  at  the  IRDR  ICoE  in  Taipei  also  offers  unique  opportunities   for  CAR  related  scientists  and  practitioners.  The  proposed  three-­‐year  effort  is  expected  to  include  bi-­‐ annual   advanced   institutes   on   themes   related   to   climate   change   adaptation   and   disaster   risk   reduction;   a   program   for   visiting   scientists   and   research   fellows   that   will   promote   innovative   research   and   teaching   related   to   IRDR   issues   and   challenges;   educational   activities,   including   the   organization  of  an  international  forum  to  stimulate  discussion  and  action  on  curriculum  development   aimed   at   both   tertiary-­‐secondary   levels,   as   well   as   professionals   in   public-­‐private   sectors;   and   continued  support  for  the  CAR  and  CCaR  programs,  including  training  workshops  and  conferences.      

Following   the  CAR   II  conference,   START   and   EWC   partnered   with   several   other   institutions   to   prepare  and  submit  a  proposal  to  APN  for  a  three-­‐year  program  of  activities  to  support  integration  of   climate  change  and  climate  change  adaptation  into  Asian  planning  school  curriculum.  The  proposal   describes  a  series  of  workshops  and  national  training  courses  that  will  bring  together  members  of  SE   Asia   scientific,   planning   and   policy   communities   to   examine   recent   advances   in   climate   change   science   and   understanding   as   well   as   lessons   learned   from   ongoing   urban   climate   change   risk   management   and   adaptation   actions.   Participants   will   be   expected   to   collaboratively   identify   knowledge  and  capacity  gaps  in  ASEAN  planning  curriculum,  which  will  subsequently  be  addressed   via  development  of  national  training  courses  targeted  at  enhancing  the  capacity  of  city  planners  and   related  officials  to  include  climate  change  risk  management  and  adaptation  in  urban  planning.  After   testing   (and   periodically   refining)   the   courses   in   four   countries   in   SE   Asia,   course   modules   will   be   prepared  for  dissemination  and  inclusion  in  ASEAN  planning  school  curriculum.  A  Regional  Sharing   Workshop,  convened  near  the  end  of  the  project  period,  will  enable  exchange  of  recommendations   and  lessons  learned,  support  module  dissemination  efforts  and  enable  collaborative  identification  of   recommendations  and  priority  actions  for  carrying  out  a  long-­‐term  program  on  developing  research   and  education  capacities  for  integrating  climate  change  adaptation  and  urban  development  planning   in  SE  Asia.  Throughout  the  three-­‐years,  partners  will  also  establish  and  nurture  a  regional  network  of   researchers,  planners  and  other  practitioners  to  encourage  cross-­‐regional  and  cross-­‐city  exchange  of   research,  experiences,  lessons  learned  and  materials.    

 

In  addition  to  these  and  other  activities,  nurturing  and  sustaining  the  CAR  network  remains  a  priority   next  step  following  the  CAR  II  conference.  In  determining  how  to  best  to  do  so,  perennial  questions   related   to   network   purpose   and   function   continue   to   be   examined   as   well   as   what   is   meant   by   network   “support”.  CAR   II   participants   and   partners   acknowledge   that   multiple   network   models   exist;  determining  what  model  serves  the  needs  of  the  CAR  community  most  effectively  should  be  a   shared   goal.   Participants   indicated   that   using   the   network   as   a   means   for   exchanging   information,   materials,   curriculum   and   ideas   is   desired.   Enabling   such   exchange   in   ways   that   also   increase  

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awareness  of  and  provide  updates  on  priority  projects  and  programs  that  are  relevant  to  CAR  themes   would  also  support  identification  of  potential  synergies  and  entry  points  for  future  collaboration.     Several   CAR   participants   emphasized   that   many   existing   “networks”   don’t   function   well.   They   challenged  themselves,  together  with  other  CAR  participants  and  partners,  to  seriously  consider  what   makes  a  network  work.  Possible  recommendations  for  the  nearer  term  included  formation  of  smaller,   more   informal   groups   within   the   larger  CAR   community   that   could   work   together   to   advance   activities   of   mutually   defined   and   shared   interest;   design   and   support   of   network   tasks   (e.g.,   production   of   hazard   and   risk   maps)   that   when   carried   out   by   members   would   help   sustain   interaction,   communication   and   exchange;   and/or   consideration   of   membership   requirements   that   might   include   periodic   participation   in   organized   trainings,   reporting   exercises   and   other   collaborative   activities.   Linking   the  CAR   network   with   other   existing   networks   in   the   region   and   internationally  was  also  identified  as  critical  for  network  health.    

   

6.  Conclusions  

 

CAR  II  participants  and  partners  agreed  that  one  of  the  greatest  outcomes  of  the  CAR  II  conference   was  the  sense  of  family  and  shared  commitment  that  participation  catalyzed.    Although  much  work   remains,  participants  and  the  partners  with  whom  they  work  are  dedicated  to  affecting  the  course  of   events  in  their  cities.  The  CAR  program  must  continue  to  maintain  and  thrive  in  its  niche  –  that  is,   generating   knowledge   and   promoting   informed   action   in   Asian   coastal   cities   at   risk   from   climate   change  and  other  drivers  of  change.    CAR  activities  hold  the  potential  to  help  such  cities  become  less   vulnerable  and  more  prepared  to  manage  current  and  future  risks  and  opportunities.    

   

References

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