Industry Overview March 22, 2012

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March 22, 2012

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Information Management

Software

Rob Owens 503.248.0721 [email protected] Jesse Hulsing 503.727.0724 [email protected]

Pacific Crest Securities

800.314.9837

www.pacific-crest.com

It’s All About the Insights: Data Discovery

Providers Positioned for Long-Term Growth

Hunger for insights drives BI to top of spending priority list. Increasing

volumes of data (both structured and semi-structured), the proliferation of mo-bile devices and Moore’s law are driving monumental change in the data management and analytics industry. While much of the hype over the past year has centered on the storage and processing layer, business intelligence (the front-end, user-facing layer) perhaps provides the most opportunity for growth. This is reflected in CIO spending surveys, which identify BI and analytics as the top spending priority for 2012.

Data discovery at forefront of BI demand. Disruptive providers QlikView

(QLIK, $30.38, Outperform), TIBCO’s (TIBX, $30.88, Outperform) Spotfire, and Tableau continue to be the biggest beneficiaries of demand for tools that explore data more effectively. While in-memory and associative search are differentia-tors, total cost of ownership (TCO), ease of use and time to deploy are all compelling reasons to purchase data discovery tools.

Ease of use, lower cost expands market opportunity. While the $8 billion

to $10 billion business intelligence market is ripe for disruption, newer data dis-covery tools from QlikView, TIBCO and Tableau often augment existing deployments. Our conversations with resellers and customers tell us that BI is often provided to users who previously used Excel or Access. Given the number of Excel power users worldwide, we believe the long-term addressable market for BI could exceed $25 billion.

Data discovery vendors taking different paths to address market.

Al-though the market opportunity is large, each data discovery player has a defined set of strengths and weaknesses. In our view, TIBCO is very well posi-tioned to grab share in the high-end enterprise market, due to its strengths in statistical modeling, ability to handle “big data” and TIBCO’s existing sales force targeting enterprises. Tableau has had considerable success in the Web and startup user base (as well as traditional verticals), primarily due to its ease of implementation, quality of visualization and excellent Web client. Qlik has used its strong reseller channel, ease of implementation and compelling drill-down capabilities to appeal to a broad base of customers.

Competitive responses are lackluster, but Exalytics, HANA and SaaS

could emerge as longer-term threats. Although QlikView, Tableau and

TIBCO are often used to augment existing programs rather than rip and replace, traditional BI vendors have started to unleash a variety of competitive res-ponses to fight threats to their installed bases. Early rollouts lack maturity, but the in-memory nature of Exalytics and HANA could limit the long-term penetra-tion of data discovery vendors. Addipenetra-tionally, the emergence of software as a service (SaaS) BI tools such as Domo and GoodData should be viewed as a threat to on-premise BI providers, particularly QlikView.

TIBX and QLIK are our top picks to invest in multiyear secular trend.

Given the growing importance of data to today’s businesses, we believe BI will remain a top priority well into the future. We view this as a multibillion-dollar market, and believe investors should be exposed to this trend for the long run.

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Industry Overview March 22, 2012

Overview

It’s Not About Storage or Processing, It’s About the Insights

Garnered

Increasing data volumes (both structured and semi-structured), the proliferation of mobile devices, and Moore’s law are driving monumental change in the data man-agement and analytics industry. While much of the hype over the last year has centered on the storage and processing layer, business intelligence (the front end, user-facing layer) perhaps provides the most opportunity for growth.

Over the past five years, BI has evolved from a staid, IT-driven tool associated with cubes and reports into a dynamic end-user-focused tool that provides new levels of insights. We’ve moved from static cubes and reports to technology catering to the iPad generation. This is market-expanding technology that we believe could help triple the BI market over the next 10 to 15 years. There are multiple ways for investors to get involved with the top spending priority for 2012, but our top picks remain the two leaders in the data discovery space: TIBX and QLIK.

BI Is 2012’s Top Spending Priority

Source: Gartner

Dominant Trends in Technology Are Reshaping BI

BI has been a priority for CIOs over the past decade. The central premise of consoli-dating, cleansing and providing one version of the truth to decision makers has singlehandedly pushed date warehousing, data integration and the rest of the BI eco-system to the top of the list for IT investments.

Drivers for the Rise of Data Discovery Tools

Sources: Pacific Crest Securities, U.S. Census Bureau

Data discovery is the latest evolution of BI, and has been driven by three main fac-tors: the general growth of data, the internet generation making up an increasingly large percentage of the workforce and thus influencing technology purchases, and the declining cost of memory (in five years the cost of a gigabyte of memory has declined 90%).

2012 CIO Spending Priorities (Gartner) 2011 CIO Spending Priorities (Gartner)

1. Analytics and BI 1. Cloud computing, including SaaS

2. Mobile technologies 2. Virtualization

3. Cloud Computing, including SaaS 3. Mobile technologies

4. Collaboration/workflow technologies 4. IT management

5. Legacy Modernization 5. Analytics and BI

6. IT Management 6. Networking, voice and data communications

7. CRM 7. Enterprise applications

8. ERP applications 8. Collaboration technologies

9. Security 9. Infrastructure

10. Virtualization 10. Web 2.0

1

The growth of data

2

The consumerization of IT

3

The decreasing cost of DRAM

2007 Cost/GB: $10 2012 Cost/GB: $1 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 +Machine Data Transaction Data E x abyt e s of D a ta

60+ million members of the US workforce grew up with the internet

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Illustrative Example: Associative Search Drives Speed-of-Thought Drill Down

Sources: Qlik, Pacific Crest Securities

Associative Search, In-Memory Drive Differentiation of Data

Discovery

The challenge with traditional BI and reporting is that reports and dashboards are generally preconfigured by the IT department. This is due to the general complexity of the underlying software and data modeling. Some drill-down potential is available, but only on a preplanned line of thinking. For example, using an equity capital markets example, a dayÆtop tradesÆsales person responsible drill down may be possible us-ing a preconfigured dashboard, but the ability to quickly pursue a line of thinkus-ing such as “who isn’t being tapped into effectively” (as shown above), is more difficult. The declining cost of memory has allowed vendors such as Qlik, Tableau and TIBCO to provide answers much more quickly. “Speed of thought” or “speed of click” drill down becomes possible, providing a much richer user experience. TIBCO, Qlik and Tableau also provide users with unique approaches to exploring the data. For example, Qlik uses associative search, which enables line-of-thought-driven data discovery (see example above).

Relatively Low Cost, Low Overhead and Low Training Time

Expands Market

Data discovery’s total cost of ownership is compelling due to three factors: (1) the tools generally require no existing infrastructure, such as a data warehouse or ex-tract-load-translate (ETL) tool. (2) The cost of license and implementation is relatively low. For example, a 2009 IDC study indicated that QlikView provided a 53% lower TCO than competitors. Tableau has generated similar results, with the German Busi-ness Analytics Research Council (BARC) ranking Tableau No. 12 for total cost of ownership. (3) Anecdotally, ramp time for users is considerably faster than with tradi-tional BI tools.

In our view, these three factors democratize BI. Because memory can be pulled di-rectly into the BI tool, users require relatively limited technical expertise, and total cost is lower than with traditional BI tools, and data discovery tools become a viable replacement option for users who previously would have used Microsoft Excel or Access for their querying and business intelligence purposes.

Who is our most lucrative customer on trade size vs. commission basis?

Let's call the sales manager to find out.

1

2

3

Ventana? Why have we only traded with them once?

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Data Discovery Has the Potential to Triple the BI Market

Source: Pacific Crest Securities estimates

Capturing the Power User Is a Massive Market Opportunity

As mentioned above, we believe the traditional BI market is not an accurate measure of the full opportunity for data discovery. Our conversations with resellers and customers tell us that tools like QlikView and Tableau are often used to augment existing BI tools and provide additional functionality to analysts as well as previous non-users of BI. Perhaps the best measure of the potential of analytics and business intelligence prod-ucts is the Excel power user base. According to Microsoft, there are roughly 500 million installed users of Office, including Excel. Of this, we estimate 15% are power users and therefore candidates for data discovery BI tools. Applying Gartner’s BI usage statistics, we assume that 28% of the potential 75 million BI users are already equipped with a BI tool. By our estimates, this leaves a greenfield opportunity of 55 million seats, which, at a very conservative average seat price of $250, equates to almost $14 billion in additional long-term total addressable market.

Implications

Qlik, TIBCO, Tableau Are the Leaders in Data Discovery

Over the past three years, Qlik, Tableau and TIBCO Spotfire have risen from fringe providers to legitimate threats to traditional BI vendors. This is reflected in growth rates:

Qlik grew its license sales 41% in 2011.

Spotfire grew approximately 50% in 2011.

Tableau grew bookings 94% in 2011.

Expansion of the customer base and product maturation has also moved these three providers up the ranks in third-party market research reports, such as Gartner’s. This has provided additional validation, which has further aided in expanding each vendor’s customer base.

~75m MS Excel Power Users 20m already using BI $250 (conservative/seat) ______________________

$13.75 BillionIncremental Market

Opp.

Traditional BI + MS

Access + Excel

Traditional

BI Market

~$9B

~ 12m MS Access Users 33% (DW use case) 3 seats/license $250 (conservative/seat) ______________________

$3 BillionIncremental Market Opp.

~$3B

~$9B

~$13.75B

Traditional BI + MS

Access

1 1 2 2

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Gartner Business Intelligence Magic Quadrant (Evolution 2008-2012) Reflects Maturation of Data Discovery Offerings

Sources: Gartner, visualign.files.wordpress.com

Each Provider Has Defined Strengths and Weaknesses

Although the market opportunity is large, each data discovery player has a defined set of strengths and weaknesses. In our view, TIBCO is very well positioned to grab share in the high-end enterprise market, due to its strengths in statistical modeling, ability to handle “big data” and TIBCO’s existing sales force targeting enterprise. Tableau has had considerable success in the Web and startup user base (as well as traditional ver-ticals), primarily due to ease of implementation, quality of visualization and excellent Web client. Qlik has used its incredibly strong reseller channel, ease of implementa-tion and compelling drill-down capabilities to appeal to a broad base of customers.

Completeness of Vision

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Comparing and Contrasting QlikView, TIBCO and Tableau

Source: Pacific Crest Securities

Mobile and Collaboration Are Emerging Growth Opportunities

A recent InformationWeek poll listed “Ability for users to share and collaborate” as priority for 59% of technology decision makers. QlikView’s QV11 release answers the call and includes collaborative workspaces and numerous sharing features. In QV11’s collaborative workspace, users can invite other users (even those without a license) to participate in brainstorming or decision-making sessions.

TIBCO and Tableau are also beating the collaboration drum, and the group will likely incorporate more social-centric features into their products. The “land and expand” adoption pattern utilized extensively by QlikView and Tableau benefits from collabora-tion; the more users who interact with the product, the more who will likely want their own license.

Mobile presents another major opportunity for the group, and is a natural extension of the PC-based dashboard. Gartner predicts that, by 2013, 33% of BI functionality will be consumed via handheld devices. Of current BI users, 20% are already using mobile functionality, and 33% plan to deploy mobile BI in 2012. TIBCO, QlikView and Tableau all have released products targeting mobile users. In our view, Qlik’s is currently the strongest.

Derivatives

Competitive Responses Emerging

Though QlikView, Tableau and TIBCO are often used to augment existing products rather than rip and replace, traditional BI vendors have started to unleash a variety of competitive responses to fight threats to their installed bases. Departmental and line-of-business deployments often can grow into full-scale enterprise deployments. In our view, this will likely occur more frequently as data discovery products mature.

Strengths

Weaknesses

S+ Analytics Toolset Enterprise Deployments

Spotfire Silver (SaaS) Big Data Support

Reseller Channel Time to deployment Reseller Channel

Time to Implement Data Drill Down and Visualization

Big Data Support Modeling/Analytics Price

Ease of Visualization Big Data Web Client

Integration with Data Warehouse

Channel Modeling/Analytics

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Source: Gartner

HANA, Exalytics Could Emerge as Long-Term Threat

While we remain skeptical of any near-term impact HANA and Exalytics may have on the data discovery market, the in-memory nature of each product could change into a threat within the next three to five years. The challenge for Oracle and SAP will be advancing OBIEE’s and BusinessObject’s data discovery and visualization capabilities. While in-memory enables QlikView, Tableau and Spotfire, the true advantage of these products lies in visualization and the ability of end users to explore data without handholding from IT. Ease of implementation and TCO will likely always favor Tableau and QlikView, but this advantage begins to slip in large enterprise implementations pulling in multiple data sources. For example, for QlikView, this requires significant scripting, and has been a challenge in the past.

SaaS a Long-Term Threat

Though TIBCO and Tableau have rolled out SaaS solutions, the emergence of vendors like Birst, GoodData ($28.5 million in venture funding), and Domo ($63 million in ven-ture funding) is a threat to the current on-premise deployment style preferred by Qlik. Qlik has yet to roll out a cloud solution, preferring to provide BI to OEM partners. We feel that this must change in the long run, as a SaaS option will likely be appealing to middle-market customers, which are a staple for Qlik’s Channel partners.

Conclusion

TIBX and QLIK Are Top Picks to Play Multiyear Secular Trend

Given the growing importance of data to today’s businesses, we believe BI will remain a top priority well into the future. Qlik and TIBCO are nimble enough to incorporate advances in mobile and collaborative technologies into their existing technology plat-forms. Additionally, growing awareness of data discovery and continued improvements to back-end ETL functionality should drive expansion into larger enter-prise deployments. We view this as a multibillion-dollar market, and believe investors should be exposed to this trend for the long run.

BI Vendors by Market Share

Revenue

%

Competitive Response

1. SAP

2413

22.90% HANA, BOBJ Explorer

2. Oracle

1646

15.60% Exalytics

3. SAS Institute

1387

13.20% SAS Visual Data Discovery

4. IBM

1222

11.60% Limited (product in labs)

5. Microsoft

914 8.70% PowerPivot, Crescent

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Market Data Revenue (M) FY ends 11/30

12-month target $32 F2011 F2012E F2013E

52-week range $31-$18 Q1 $185.3 $221.1 $255.9 Shares outstanding (M) 172.0 Q2 $216.4 $238.9 $266.2 Market capitalization (B) $5.31 Q3 $229.0 $255.7 $277.9 Average daily volume (M) 2.1 Q4 $289.5 $321.9 $356.4 Float (M) 157.5 Year $920.2 $1,037.6 $1,156.4

Dividend yield NA Previous estimate - -

Dividend/share NA First Call mean $1,041.2 $1,161.2

P/R 5.8x 5.1x 4.6x

Balance Sheet Y/Y growth 22.0% 12.8% 11.4%

Cash (M) $308.4

Net cash/share $1.79 Earnings per Share

Debt (M) $68.1 F2011 F2012E F2013E

Debt/total capital 7.4% Q1 $0.16 $0.19 $0.27 Shareholders' equity (M) $849.2 Q2 $0.21 $0.24 $0.28 Tangible book value/share $1.74 Q3 $0.23 $0.29 $0.30

Q4 $0.42 $0.46 $0.49

Year $1.01 $1.17 $1.33

Previous estimate - -

First Call mean $1.15 $1.32

P/E 30.5x 26.3x 23.2x

FCF/share $1.12 $1.38 $1.52

Company Profile

_{TIBCO Software Inc.}

Ticker: TIBX Rating: Outperform Price: $30.88

TIBCO’s Exposure to Data Discovery Should Help Propel Strong

Growth

Spotfire emerging as growth engine. TIBCO’s Optimization line of business

(Spotfire and complex event processing) grew nearly 50% in 2011. Due to strong secular tailwinds, we believe another year of robust growth is likely. Spotfire is un-iquely positioned as an enterprise-class data discovery tool, with strong analytics and big-data capabilities. TIBCO began training its broader sales team on Spotfire in the back half of last year, and we’ve heard of a strong pick up in channel partner adds in recent years. To illustrate, the U.S. region has added 18 reseller partners since the latter half of 2010, taking the total to 25.

FTL is an underappreciated product cycle. TIBCO’s Faster Than Light (FTL)

messaging product has the potential to spur growth in TIBCO’s core middleware line of business, in our view. A multimillion-dollar deal was publicly announced in December, and any rebound in financial services spending should amplify the im-pact.

TIBX remains a top pick for 2012. TIBCO’s unique product footprint, exposure

to strong secular tailwinds, and expanding sales team give us confidence in anoth-er year of strong growth. With license growth expectations in the low-teens range, continued strength in Spotfire or the emergence of an FTL product cycle should be catalysts for upside. Our price target remains $32, but we will revisit after earn-ings.

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Price Target

Our 12-month price target for TIBX is $32, which is based on 23x our F2013 EPS es-timate of $1.33, plus cash. Market and macroeconomic factors could interfere with this price target, as could a slowdown in IT spending, increased competition from IBM, Oracle Corporation, SAP AG and others, or a reversal in recent focus on bottom-line results by management.

Investment Thesis

TIBCO Software, Inc. is a leading enterprise software middleware vendor with particu-lar strength in real-time application integration. As interest in and adoption of service-oriented architecture (SOA) and business process management (BPM) have increased, TIBCO has expanded its corporate positioning and product offerings to address the emerging trends in the enterprise middleware market. However, the market is still in the early-adopter phase, and the increasing interest in SOA has driven increased com-petition from much larger enterprise software vendors such as Oracle Corporation, IBM Corporation and SAP AG. In addition, enterprise IT departments have been burned by the latest software “buzzwords” in the past and are wary of making a large investment without a clear return on investment. As a result, investments in SOA technologies have been somewhat slow to materialize. SOA and BPM have the poten-tial to revolutionize the way enterprises build and implement applications, and SOA is becoming widely accepted in IT departments. While the transition is still in the rela-tively early stages, more clear use cases are emerging around consolidated views of key data, real-time analytics, as well as the need to support a more distributed appli-cation infrastructure due to growing adoption of cloud platforms. As a result, spending on next-generation application infrastructure should improve TIBCO’s recent license growth rates. In addition, management focus and organizational changes should ena-ble more consistent results on the top line and improved growth in EPS as sales productivity improves and top-line growth returns.

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FY ends 11/30 FEB MAY AUG NOV FEB MAY AUG NOV FEB MAY AUG NOV

Figures in millions, except as noted F1Q11 F2Q11 F3Q11 F4Q11 F2011 F1Q12E F2Q12E F3Q12E F4Q12E F2012E F1Q13E F2Q13E F3Q13E F4Q13E F2013E

Revenue $185.3 $216.4 $229.0 $289.5 $920.2 $221.1 $238.9 $255.7 $321.9 $1,037.6 $255.9 $266.2 $277.9 $356.4 $1,156.4

Licenses $70.1 $82.0 $90.9 $134.7 $377.6 $80.6 $91.1 $99.6 $152.6 $424.0 $97.9 $100.3 $102.6 $165.6 $466.3

Total Service & maintenance $115.3 $134.4 $138.1 $154.8 $542.6 $140.6 $147.7 $156.0 $169.3 $613.7 $157.9 $166.0 $175.3 $190.8 $690.0

Cost of revenue $47.3 $55.8 $59.1 $64.9 $227.1 $59.7 $61.4 $64.3 $68.6 $254.0 $63.3 $66.4 $70.0 $78.9 $278.6

Cost of license $4.1 $4.8 $4.4 $6.4 $19.8 $4.8 $4.6 $5.0 $7.6 $22.0 $4.9 $5.0 $5.1 $8.3 $23.3

Cost of Service & Maintenance $43.1 $51.1 $54.7 $58.4 $207.3 $54.8 $56.9 $59.3 $60.9 $232.0 $58.4 $61.4 $64.9 $70.6 $255.3

Gross profit $138.1 $160.6 $169.8 $224.7 $693.1 $161.5 $177.5 $191.4 $253.3 $783.7 $192.5 $199.8 $207.9 $277.5 $877.8 Operating expenses $97.5 $109.8 $112.2 $124.8 $444.4 $116.8 $119.7 $120.1 $138.9 $495.4 $126.8 $131.7 $133.8 $155.2 $547.5 R&D $30.0 $33.2 $33.1 $35.4 $131.7 $35.0 $36.0 $36.0 $39.0 $146.0 $40.0 $42.0 $43.0 $45.0 $170.0 S&M $58.3 $64.8 $67.6 $77.4 $268.2 $70.8 $71.7 $71.6 $86.9 $300.9 $76.8 $77.2 $77.8 $96.2 $328.0 G&A $9.2 $11.8 $11.5 $12.0 $44.5 $11.0 $12.0 $12.5 $13.0 $48.5 $10.0 $12.5 $13.0 $14.0 $49.5 Operating income $40.5 $50.8 $57.6 $99.8 $248.8 $44.7 $57.8 $71.3 $114.4 $288.2 $65.8 $68.1 $74.1 $122.3 $330.2

Interest and other income/loss ($0.9) ($1.6) ($1.2) ($0.9) ($4.6) $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $3.0 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $3.0

Pretax income $39.7 $49.1 $56.4 $98.9 $244.2 $45.5 $58.5 $72.1 $115.2 $291.2 $66.5 $68.9 $74.9 $123.0 $333.2

Taxes $12.3 $12.8 $16.9 $26.7 $68.7 $13.2 $17.6 $21.6 $34.6 $86.9 $20.0 $20.7 $22.5 $36.9 $100.0

Net income/loss $27.3 $36.3 $39.4 $72.2 $175.5 $32.3 $41.0 $50.4 $80.6 $204.3 $46.6 $48.2 $52.4 $86.1 $233.3

Pro forma EPS $0.16 $0.21 $0.23 $0.42 $1.01 $0.19 $0.24 $0.29 $0.46 $1.17 $0.27 $0.28 $0.30 $0.49 $1.33

Diluted Shares Outstanding 173.5 174.7 173.0 172.0 173.3 174.0 174.0 174.0 174.0 174.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0 175.0

Free cash flow $34.8 $44.7 $57.2 $57.4 $194.1 $34.7 $58.5 $53.3 $93.3 $239.8 $59.3 $65.1 $54.6 $87.2 $266.2

FCF/share $0.20 $0.26 $0.33 $0.33 $1.12 $0.20 $0.34 $0.31 $0.54 $1.38 $0.34 $0.37 $0.31 $0.50 $1.52

As a % of sales

Gross margin 74.5% 74.2% 74.2% 77.6% 75.3% 73.0% 74.3% 74.9% 78.7% 75.5% 75.2% 75.1% 74.8% 77.9% 75.9%

Operating margin 21.9% 23.5% 25.2% 34.5% 27.0% 20.2% 24.2% 27.9% 35.5% 27.8% 25.7% 25.6% 26.7% 34.3% 28.6%

Pretax margin 21.4% 22.7% 24.6% 34.2% 26.5% 20.6% 24.5% 28.2% 35.8% 28.1% 26.0% 25.9% 26.9% 34.5% 28.8%

Effective tax rate 31.0% 26.0% 30.0% 27.0% 28.1% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 29.8% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%

Net margin 14.7% 16.8% 17.2% 24.9% 19.1% 14.6% 17.2% 19.7% 25.0% 19.7% 18.2% 18.1% 18.9% 24.2% 20.2%

Y/Y % change

Revenue 19.5% 24.9% 24.1% 20.0% 22.0% 19.3% 10.4% 11.7% 11.2% 12.8% 15.7% 11.4% 8.7% 10.7% 11.4%

License revenue 29.4% 32.0% 28.7% 17.4% 25.2% 14.9% 11.2% 9.7% 13.3% 12.3% 21.6% 10.0% 3.0% 8.5% 10.0%

Service & maintenance 14.3% 20.9% 21.3% 22.4% 19.9% 22.0% 9.9% 13.0% 9.4% 13.1% 12.3% 12.3% 12.4% 12.7% 12.4%

Operating income 33.5% 31.0% 28.2% 31.1% 30.7% 10.3% 13.8% 23.7% 14.6% 15.9% 47.1% 17.9% 3.9% 6.9% 14.6% Pretax income 35.2% 28.8% 30.2% 31.7% 31.3% 14.5% 19.1% 27.7% 16.4% 19.3% 46.3% 17.6% 3.9% 6.8% 14.4% Net income 36.9% 37.9% 32.3% 34.1% 34.8% 18.1% 12.8% 27.9% 11.6% 16.4% 44.3% 17.6% 3.9% 6.8% 14.2% EPS 33.9% 34.2% 31.0% 34.8% 33.0% 17.8% 13.3% 27.1% 10.3% 16.0% 43.4% 17.0% 3.3% 6.2% 13.5% Sequential % change Licenses -38.9% 17.0% 10.8% 48.3% - -40.2% 13.2% 9.3% 53.2% - -35.8% 2.4% 2.3% 61.4% -

Service & maintenance -8.9% 16.7% 2.7% 12.1% - -9.2% 5.1% 5.6% 8.5% - -6.7% 5.1% 5.6% 8.8% -

Revenue -23.2% 16.8% 5.8% 26.4% - -23.6% 8.0% 7.0% 25.9% - -20.5% 4.1% 4.4% 28.2% -

Sources: Company reports, Pacific Crest Securities estimates

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Disclosures

The material contained herein is based on data from sources considered to be reliable. However, Pacific Crest Securities (PCS) does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. The information is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, nor, because of individual client requirements, should it be construed as a representa-tion by PCS as an offer, or the solicitarepresenta-tion of an offer, to buy or sell a security. The opinions and estimates expressed reflect the current judgment of PCS and are subject to change without notice. This report may contain forward-looking statements, which involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from the forward-looking statements. PCS may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for the issuers of these securities. No portion of an analyst’s compensation is based on a specific banking transaction; however, part of his/her compensation may be based upon the overall firm revenue and profit-ability, of which investment banking is a component. Individuals associated with PCS or PCS itself may have a position in the securities mentioned and may make purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise. This communica-tion is intended solely for use by PCS clients. The recipient agrees not to forward or copy the informacommunica-tion to any other person. PCS makes a market in the shares of Oracle Corporation, Qlik Technologies Inc., SAP AG and TIBCO Software Inc.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst(s) principally responsible for the analysis of any security or issuer in this report certifies that the views ex-pressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the research analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers, and certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recom-mendations or views contained in this report.

Ratings Definitions and Distribution – as of March 22, 2012

Rating Rating Definition % of Securities

with This Rating

% of Securities with IB Services* Outperform (O) We expect the stock to outperform the analyst’s

cover-age sector over the coming 12 months.

43.8% 14.8% Sector Perform (SP) We expect the stock to perform in line with the analyst’s

coverage sector over the coming 12 months.

49.8% 6.0% Underperform (U) We expect the stock to underperform the analyst’s

cov-erage sector over the coming 12 months.

3.5% 0.0% Not Rated (NR) We have not assigned an investment rating to the stock,

or we have temporarily suspended its rating.

3.0% 0.0%

*Indicates the percentage of securities with this rating for which investment banking services have been provided in the past 12 months. Source: Pacific Crest Securities

Abbreviation Key NA Not available NC No change

NE No estimate NM Not meaningful

P/E Price to earnings P/R Price to revenue

FCF Cash flow from operations per share, excluding capital expenditures

Sources: Bloomberg, Pacific Crest Securities

Pacific Crest Ratings for ORCL Rating: Outperform, Target Price: 32 Closing Price March 21, 2012: $29.41

$ 3/ 24/ 09: O ,T: N /A 6/ 24/ 09: O , T: $24 12 /18/ 09: O , T: $32 3/ 26/ 10: O , T: $40 12 /17/ 10: O , T: $41 3/ 25/ 11: O , T: $42 12 /1 /11: O , T: $43 12 /21/ 11: O , T: $32 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 3/ 24/ 0 9 5/ 7/ 09 6/ 22/ 0 9 8/ 5/ 09 9/ 18/ 0 9 1 1 /2 /0 9 12/ 16/ 0 9 2/ 2/ 10 3/ 18/ 1 0 5/ 3/ 10 6/ 16/ 1 0 7/ 30/ 1 0 9/ 14/ 1 0 10/ 27/ 1 0 12/ 10/ 1 0 1/ 26/ 1 1 3/ 11/ 1 1 4/ 26/ 1 1 6/ 9/ 11 7/ 25/ 1 1 9/ 7/ 11 10/ 20/ 1 1 1 2 /5 /1 1 1/ 20/ 1 2 3/ 6/ 12

(12)

Industry Overview March 22, 2012 $ 3/ 22/ 11: O, T: $29 4/ 29/ 11: O, T: $31 7/ 29/ 11: O, T: $35 10/ 10/ 11: O, T: $28 10/ 28/ 11: O, T: $30 2/ 21/ 12: O, T: $36 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 7/ 15/ 10 8/ 27/ 10 10/ 12/ 10 11/ 24/ 10 1/ 10/ 11 2/ 24/ 11 4/ 8/ 11 5/ 24/ 11 7/ 8/ 11 8/ 22/ 11 10/ 5/ 11 11/ 17/ 11 1/ 4/ 12 2/ 17/ 12

Pacific Crest Ratings for TIBX Rating: Outperform, Target Price: 32 Closing Price March 21, 2012: $30.88

$ 3/24/09: SP ,T :N/ A 1/19/10: O, T: $ 1 2 3/26/10: O, T: $ 1 4 8/3/10: O , T: $1 5 9/24/10: O, T: $ 2 0 12 /2 2 /10: O , T: $27 3/25/11: O, T: $ 2 9 3/30/11: O, T: $ 3 1 6/24/11: O, T: $ 3 2 9/23/11: O, T: $ 2 9 12 /2 2 /11: O , T: $32 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 3/24/ 0 9 5/7/ 09 6/22/ 0 9 8/5/ 09 9/18/ 0 9 11/2/ 0 9 12/16/09 2/2/ 10 3/18/ 1 0 5/3/ 10 6/16/ 1 0 7/30/ 1 0 9/14/ 1 0 10/27/10 12/10/10 1/26/ 1 1 3/11/ 1 1 4/26/ 1 1 6/9/ 11 7/25/ 1 1 9/7/ 11 10/20/11 12/5/ 1 1 1/20/ 1 2 3/6/ 12