TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION ... 1
1.1 BACKGROUND... 1
1.2 RELEVANT NATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK ... 2
1.3 DUBLIN REGION (WATER SUPPLY AREA) ... 2
1.4 HISTORICAL CONTEXT... 4
1.5 OVER RIDING PURPOSE ... 6
1.6 PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (1996-2010)... 7
1.6.1 Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study 1996 / Year 2000 Review ... 9
1.6.2 Feasibility Studies (3 Options) / SEA Phase 1 Stakeholder Consultations.... 10
1.6.3 SEA Phase 1 Additional Stakeholder Consultations ... 10
1.6.4 Dublin City Council – Strategic Policy Committee / Expanded Range of Options ... 11
1.6.5 Feasibility Studies (10 Options) / SEA Phase 2 / Public Consultation ... 11
1.6.6 Selection of Recommended Option / Stakeholder Feedback ... 13
1.7 NEED FOR PROJECT ... 13
1.7.1 Government Economic Growth Policy ... 13
1.7.2 Headroom / Security of Supply... 14
1.7.3 Water Demand Growth... 14
1.7.4 Demand / Supply Projections 2009 - 2040... 14
1.7.5 Timing of New Supply Requirements ... 16
1.7.6 Peak Demand & Headroom Allowances ... 17
1.7.7 New Source Supply Requirements ... 18
1.7.8 Climate Change / Security of Supply ... 19
1.7.9 Economic Downturn (2008 – 2010)... 20
1.8 WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS ... 21
1.8.1 River Shannon Water Supply Options ... 22
1.8.2 Irish Sea Water Supply Option ... 23
1.8.3 Other Water Supply Options ... 23
1.8.4 General Option Overview ... 24
1.9 EVALUATION OF OPTIONS ... 24
1.9.1 Option Evaluation Methodology ... 24
1.9.2 Option Evaluation & Selection Process... 25
1.10 SELECTION OF RECOMMENDED OPTION ... 27
1.10.1 Recommended Option F2 ... 27
Technical & Economic Advantages... 29
1.11 INFRASTRUCTURE – RECOMMENDED OPTION ... 29
1.11.1 Key Infrastructure Components... 29
1.12 COST OF RECOMMENDED OPTION... 30
1.13 PROGRAMME – IMPLEMENTATION OF RECOMMENDED OPTION ... 31
2
NEED FOR PROJECT ...33
2.1 INTRODUCTION ... 33
2.2 IRISH GOVERNMENT ECONOMIC POLICY ... 34
2.3 WATER SUPPLY – OBJECTIVES... 34
2.4 DEMAND PROJECTIONS ... 35
2.4.1 Maximum Planning Scenario... 35
2.4.2 Minimum Planning Scenario... 36
2.4.3 Extent & Timing of Water Supply Needs ... 36
2.4.4 Demand Projections Summary... 37
2.5 DEMAND REQUIREMENTS – MIDLANDS ... 39
2.6 PRODUCTION CAPABILITY OF EXISTING SOURCES... 39
2.7 DEMAND/SUPPLY BALANCE... 40
2.8 CLIMATE CHANGE... 41
2.9 TIMING OF NEW SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS ... 41
2.9.1 Peak Demand & Headroom Allowances ... 42
2.10 EXTENT OF NEW SUPPLY REQUIREMENTS ... 44
2.11 PHASING ... 45
2.12 NEW WATER SUPPLY SCHEME – PERFORMANCE CRITERIA ... 46
2.13 WATER PRODUCTION SOURCES 2009 – 2040 ... 46
3
WATER CONSERVATION...47
3.1 INTRODUCTION ... 47
3.2 HISTORY OF WATER CONSERVATION... 47
3.2.1 Dublin Region Water Conservation Project (DRWCP 1998 / 99) ... 47
3.2.2 Dublin Region Watermains Rehabilitation Project (2007 – 2012)... 48
3.2.3 Water Conservation for Schools: Mr. Drippy Campaign ... 48
3.2.4 Tap Tips Campaign ... 48
3.2.5 Water Bye-Laws ... 48
3.3 WATER CONSERVATION SAVING POTENTIAL... 49
3.3.1 Measures in Place (2010) ... 49
3.3.2 Future Potential Measures ... 51
4
WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE ...53
4.1 SHANNON INTERNATIONAL RIVER BASIN DISTRICT ... 53
4.1.1 Interaction / Relationship between the WSP-DR Plan and the Shannon RBMP ... 53
4.2 EASTERN RIVER BASIN DISTRICT ... 56
4.2.1 Abstractions... 56
4.3 CONCLUSION... 56
5
WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS ...57
5.1 INTRODUCTION ... 57
5.1.1 Hydrological Modelling of the River Shannon ... 59
5.1.2 Phased Water Supply Requirements from the New Supply Source ... 60
5.1.3 Technical Evaluation of Water Supply Options ... 60
5.1.4 Routing and Site Selection ... 61
5.1.5 Economic Evaluation of Water Supply Options... 62
5.1.6 Environmental Assessment... 62
5.1.7 Public Consultation... 62
6
LOUGH REE OPTIONS - EVALUATION SUMMARY ...63
6.1 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENTS ... 64
6.1.1 Hydrological Model ... 64
6.1.2 Modelling Conclusions for Options A, D, E and G – Lough Ree... 65
6.2 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS ... 66
6.2.1 Strategic Environmental Assessment – Environmental Report ... 66
6.2.2 Habitats Directive Assessments... 67
6.3 SOCIO ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SUMMARY... 67
6.4 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SUMMARY... 68
6.5 SUMMARY LOUGH REE WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS (A, D, E AND G)... 68
7
LOUGH DERG / PARTEEN BASIN OPTIONS – EVALUATION SUMMARY ....70
7.1 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENTS ... 72
7.1.1 Modelling of Abstraction Impacts from Lough Derg / Parteen Basin ... 72
7.1.2 Water Levels in Lough Derg / Parteen Basin ... 74
7.1.3 Flows in Lough Derg / Parteen Basin... 74
7.1.4 Modelling Results Summary... 75
7.1.5 Modelling Results Conclusion ... 77
7.2 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENTS ... 77
7.2.1 Habitats Directive Assessments... 78
7.3 SOCIO ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SUMMARY... 79
7.5 SUMMARY LOUGH DERG / PARTEEN BASIN OPTIONS (B, F2 AND C) ... 80
8
DESALINATION / GROUNDWATER / LIFFEY BARROW OPTIONS –
EVALUATION SUMMARY...82
8.1 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENTS – DESALINATION ... 83
8.1.1 Abstraction Location... 83
8.1.2 Selection of Optimum Desalination Technology ... 83
8.1.3 Modelling of Brine Dispersion Impacts ... 84
8.2 ENVIRONMENTAL / SOCIO ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS DESALINATION ... 85
8.2.1 Habitats Directive Assessments... 85
8.3 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS DESALINATION ... 86
8.4 SUMMARY DESALINATION... 87
8.5 TECHNICAL ASSESSMENT GROUNDWATER ... 88
8.5.1 Groundwater Study Methodology... 89
8.5.2 Methodology for Deriving Potential Yields from Groundwater Bodies ... 91
8.5.3 Constraints ... 91
8.5.4 Summary of Groundwater Study ... 92
8.6 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER... 93
8.7 ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT GROUNDWATER... 93
8.8 SUMMARY GROUNDWATER ... 94
8.9 TECHNICAL SSSESSMENT LIFFEY BARROW... 96
8.9.1 Water Availability from the Barrow ... 98
8.9.2 Water Availability from the Liffey ... 98
8.9.3 Water Availability - Liffey Barrow Conjunctive Use ... 99
8.9.4 Hydrological Modelling ... 100
8.9.5 Modelling Results Summary... 100
8.10 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT LIFFEY BARROW ... 101
8.11 SUMMARY LIFFEY BARROW... 101
9
EVALUATION OF WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS...102
9.1 METHODOLOGY FOR WATER SUPPLY OPTION EVALUATION ... 102
9.1.1 Sustainable Development ... 102
9.1.2 Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)... 102
9.1.3 Draft Plan (Technical Report) SEA Environmental Report / Habitats Directive Report... 103
9.1.4 Evaluation Criteria / Assessment ... 103
9.1.5 Water Framework Directive... 104
10
RANKING OF OPTIONS & SELECTION OF RECOMMENDED PREFERRED
OPTION...106
10.1 ASSESSMENT CRITERIA ... 106
10.2 EVALUATION SUMMARY ... 107
10.2.1 Summary of Sustainability Analysis & Strategic Environmental Assessments.. ... 115
10.2.2 Summary of Option – Advantages / Disadvantages ... 115
10.3 RECOMMENDED PREFERRED OPTION ... 117
10.3.1 Option Description ... 117
10.3.2 Merits of Recommended Option F2 ... 118
10.4 EIA & HDA OF RECOMMENDED / PREFERRED OPTION ... 120
10.5 ADOPTION OF PREFERRED OPTION & SEA STATEMENT ... 120
10.6 STATUTORY PLANNING PROCESS... 120
11
MONITORING AND MITIGATION...122
11.1 INTRODUCTION ... 122
11.2 MEASURES ALREADY IN PLACE ... 122
11.2.1 Water Flows/Levels ... 122
11.3 PROPOSED MONITORING AND MITIGATION MEASURES... 122
11.3.1 Conservation Measures ... 122
11.3.2 Landscape ... 123
11.3.3 Energy ... 123
11.3.4 Working Groups / Consultees ... 123
11.3.5 ESB Agreement... 123
11.3.6 Bog Storage... 123
11.3.7 Phytoplankton Dynamics... 123
11.3.8 Ecological Study on Bog Storage... 124
11.3.9 Shannon System Monitoring ... 124
11.3.10 Pollan Survey ... 125
11.3.11 Invasive Species... 125
11.3.12 Hydrological Connections... 125
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Greater Dublin Area / Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) ... 3
Figure 1.2 Project Milestones 1996 – 2010 ... 8
Figure 1.4 Minimum & Maximum Water Demand Growth Scenarios (Average Demand) ... 17
Figure 1.5 Peak Demand Growth Scenarios (incl Headroom provision) ... 18
Figure 1.6 GDA Historic Population Growth (1961 – 2009) & Projections (2009 – 2031)... 21
Figure 1.7 Water Supply Options... 22
Figure 1.8 Desalination Option Schematic... 23
Figure 1.9 Multi Criteria Analysis & Strategic Environmental Assessment... 24
Figure 1.10 Option Evaluation & Selection Process ... 26
Figure 1.11 Option F2 Northern Lough Derg & External Storage at Garryhinch ... 30
Figure 2.1 Minimum & Maximum Average Water Demand Growth Scenarios... 42
Figure 2.2 Peak Demand Growth Scenarios (incl Headroom provision) ... 43
Figure 2.3 New Source Supply Phases ... 45
Figure 2.4 Water Production Sources 2009 – 2040... 46
Figure 3.1 Timing of Supply Requirements from New Source... 52
Figure 5.1 Water Supply Options Summary ... 57
Figure 6.1 Lough Ree Options ... 63
Figure 7.1 Lough Derg / Parteen Basin Options ... 70
Figure 7.2 Lough Derg ... 70
Figure 7.3 Killaloe / Parteen Basin / Parteen Weir ... 71
Figure 7.4 Parteen Weir ... 72
Figure 7.5 Ardnacrusha Hydropower Station... 73
Figure 7.6 Headrace to Ardnacrusha... 73
Figure 7.7 Existing Average Flows and Abstractions ... 75
Figure 7.8 Schematic of Average Water Flows Lough Derg / Parteen Basin... 76
Figure 8.1 Desalination / Groundwater / Liffey Barrow Options... 82
Figure 8.2 North Dublin Coastline (Potential location for siting Desalination Plant) ... 83
Figure 8.3 Typical RO Plant with Conventional Pre-treatment (for 100Ml/d)... 84
Figure 8.4 Groundwater Study Area (80km radius from Dublin)... 90
Figure 8.5 Schematic of Option J Operation... 96
Figure 8.6 Schematic of Water contribution from Liffey and Barrow ... 96
Figure 8.7 Poulaphuca Reservoir ... 97
Figure 8.8 River Barrow ... 97
Figure 8.9 Liffey Catchment ... 98
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Dublin Region Existing Water Supply Sources... 4
Table 1.2 SEA Phase 2 Public Consultation – Stakeholder Presentations / Submissions ... 12
Table 1.3 Minimum Planning Scenario ... 18
Table 1.4 Maximum Planning Scenario (SEA Phase 2) ... 19
Table 1.5 New Source Supply Requirements... 19
Table 1.6 Capex / Opex / Whole Life Cost / Water Delivery Cost (2020 – 2045)... 31
Table 2.1 Average / Peak Demand (2010 – 2040) – Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) ... 38
Table 2.2 Treated Water Production from Existing Sources ... 39
Table 2.3 Demand / Supply Balance (Mld) ... 40
Table 2.4 Minimum Planning Scenario ... 44
Table 2.5 Maximum Planning Scenario (SEA Phase 2) ... 44
Table 2.6 New Source Supply Requirements... 44
Table 4.1 Relationship between the Core Objectives of the Shannon RBMP and the WSP-DR Plan ... 54
Table 4.2 Interaction of the WSP-DR Plan with the Action Programme of the Shannon RBMP... 55
Table 4.3 Interaction of the WSP-DR Plan with the Other Issues of the Shannon RBMP ... 55
Table 6.1 Modelling Results Summary ... 66
Table 6.2 Environmental Impact Summary of Lough Ree Options ... 67
Table 6.3 Summary of Capital / Operating / Whole Life Costs ... 68
Table 7.1 Environmental Impact Summary – Option B – Lough Derg (No bog storage) ... 78
Table 7.2 Environmental Impact Summary – Options F1 & F2 – Lough Derg + Storage ... 78
Table 7.3 Environmental Impact Summary – Option C – Parteen Basin ... 78
Table 7.4 Summary of Capital / Operating / Whole Life Costs ... 79
Table 8.1 Environmental Impact Summary Option H (Desalination)... 85
Table 8.2 Summary of Capital / Operating / Whole Life Costs – Option H... 86
Table 8.3 Conjunctive Use of Liffey (Poulaphuca) and Barrow ... 99
Table 10.1 Sustainability & Environmental Evaluation Rating Chart ... 108
Table 10.2 Habitats Directive Assessment (HDA) Rating ... 108
Table 10.3 Technical Assessment (Source) ... 109
Table 10.4 Technical Assessment (Infrastructure) ... 110
Table 10.5 Environmental Assessment (SEA) ... 111
Table 10.6 Environmental Assessment (HDA) ... 112
Table 10.7 Economic Assessment ... 113
Table 10.8 Socio – Economic Assessment ... 114
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A DEMAND APPENDIX
AA Demand Projections 2009-2040 No. of Pages 1
AB Demand Review No. of Pages 147
APPENDIX B Shannon Modelling Report No. of Pages 51
APPENDIX C Groundwater Report No. of Pages 73
1 INTRODUCTION
The assessment of solutions for meeting the longterm water supply needs of the Dublin Region were undertaken within the legislative framework of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive / Process. The SEA process (2006 – 2010) assessed the impacts of implementation of various water supply options contained within a draft Plan. The draft Plan was prepared in conjunction with specified Environmental Assessments and ‘Appropriate Assessments’ under the Habitats Directive.
The draft Plan and Environmental Reports were tabled for public consultation under the SEA process and feedback from the consultations were incorporated, as appropriate, into the draft Plan. The SEA process requires that the Plan (amended draft Plan) is adopted by the ‘Competent Authority’ which initiated the SEA– in this case Dublin City Council (DCC). Following adoption, an SEA Statement is published outlining the rationale for the recommendations in the Plan and how environmental considerations were accommodated in arriving at the recommendations.
This (adopted) Plan has emerged from extensive feasibility studies involving assessments of the extent and timing of new supply needs in the Dublin, Mid East and Midlands Regions and options for meeting those needs. Extensive consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, under the SEA process, have led to the selection of a recommended solution for meeting longterm water supply needs in an environmentally sustainable manner which ensures that the development of the new supply minimises negative impacts on all communities – this has been a key guiding principle of all the assessments to date and will continue to be the guiding principle as more detailed studies are undertaken on the recommended solution during the next stage of the project’s development – Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Planning involving the independent planning body An Bord Pleanála.
This Plan acknowledges the significant input of all who have contributed to date during the SEA consultative phases, and DCC / RPS look forward to ongoing contributions from statutory & non-statutory stakeholders as detailed consultations continue through the next stage of project development – the EIA and planning stages.
1.1 BACKGROUND
Under the 2002 – 2004 Water Services Investment Programme (WSIP)*, Dublin City Council (DCC) were appointed by the Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG) in 2003 to undertake Feasibility Studies and prepare a Plan / Report for the purpose of identifying and recommending a preferred new major supply source to meet the longterm water supply needs of the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area).
In carrying out the study, DCC act in a lead role on behalf of the seven Local Authorities in the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) who receive their water supplies (in whole or in part) from existing sources and water treatment plants in the Region controlled and operated by DCC and / or Fingal County Council.
Following a competitive procurement process an experienced international joint venture (JV) consultancy organisation, RPS – Veolia JV, were appointed by DCC (2004) to undertake the Feasibility Studies and prepare the Plan / Report. The JV was lead by RPS. SEURECA, an international water consultancy organisation, wholly owned by Veolia Water, provided specialist inputs and international project references by means of which the proposals for the Dublin Region were benchmarked.
*The WSIP is prepared by the Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG). The programme evolves from needs assessments received from all 34 Water Services Authorities in
Ireland. Accordingly, the WSIP programme represents a balanced national strategic programme of works designed to support the national socio-economic objectives established by Government in the National Development Plan and related Plans & Policies.
1.2 RELEVANT NATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK
The National Policy context for this Plan would reference:
x Economic Policy; based on the National Development Plan, the National Spatial Strategy and the Governments policy towards developing ‘The Smart Economy’
x Environment and Water Resource Management; through the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) under the River Basin District (RBD) management programme overseen by the Department of the Environment Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG)
x Water Service Delivery; with reference to the Water Services Act (2007) and the Water Services Investment Programme (WSIP) of the DEHLG for 2010-2012
x Planning; through the Planning and Development Act 2000, the Strategic Infrastructure Act, regional and local Development Plans
x Environmental Assessment & Protection ofHabitats; through the Strategic Environment Assessment (SEA) Regulations, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Regulations, Habitats Directive and other relevant environmental protection legislation (European and National).
For further details in relation to the National context within which this Plan / Project fits see Appendix D.
1.3 DUBLIN REGION (WATER SUPPLY AREA)
The Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) is outlined in Figure 1.1. It includes the administrative areas of Dublin City, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal and South Dublin Counties, along with significant parts of Counties Wicklow, Meath and Kildare. Current population (2010) of the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) is approx 1.5m people.
The Greater Dublin Area (GDA) includes the administrative areas of Dublin City, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, South Dublin and allof Kildare, Meath and Wicklow.
Table 1.1 outlines the existing Dublin Region sources including the sustainable outputs from the water treatment plants which treat water (to drinking water) standard from these sources.
Table 1.1 Dublin Region Existing Water Supply Sources
Water Treatment Plant Sustainable
Output
Licence
Ballymore Eustace WTP (2010)
318Mld* In place since 1940 and reviewed periodically in light of changing needs. Abstractions from Poulaphuca Reservoir are regulated under long-term (historic) agreements with the ESB and are managed by ESB as part of overall dam
management. Leixlip (2010)
Planned Output (2014)
148Mld
215Mld
In place since the 1960’s. Abstraction is through agreement with ESB and managed by ESB as part of overall dam management.
Roundwood 75Mld The Vartry abstraction has been in place since 1870. The abstraction was covered under the 1861 Dublin Corporation Waterworks Act which enabled the Corporation to acquire the entire waterway, a bill was passed to allow this and to allow the Corporation to build the reservoir and provide them with the ability to buy land similar to the CPO procedures which Local Authorities now use.
Ballyboden (Bohernabreena) 16Mld Abstractions from Bohernabreena have been in place since the 1880’s. Abstraction from Boherbreena reservoir was set up by the
Rathmines and Pembroke township in the 1880’s to supply that area. This township was dissolved in 1932 and Dublin Corporation took over the management of this supply.
Bog of the Ring 3Mld An ongoing monitoring programme was put in place by Fingal Co Co to establish the
sustainable levels of abstraction (approx 3.0 Mld). Total Sustainable Water
Availability from Existing Dublin Region sources
627Mld
*1Mld = 1 million litres per day or one thousand cubic metres (m3) per day
1.4 HISTORICAL
CONTEXT
The first significant public water supply to Dublin and Wicklow was the Vartry scheme constructed in the 1860s by the then Dublin Corporation (now Dublin City Council (DCC)) and remains in service over 130 years later. This scheme with its source at Roundwood includes a rock tunnel feeding twin trunk mains to the city and incorporates open storage reservoirs at Stillorgan. It replaced private water supplies, generally from groundwater sources. These had become polluted and were a major source of waterborne diseases that caused regular epidemics.
Also in the 19th century, the Dodder scheme at Bohernabreena was also developed by Dublin City to supply the Rathgar/Pembroke area, with facilities for treatment at Ballyboden.
During the 1940s, the Electricity Supply Board (ESB) (a commercial semi state organisation) in conjunction with Dublin Corporation (now DCC) developed a joint venture scheme to provide dams at Poulaphuca and Leixlip on the River Liffey, which impounded water for power generation and for public water supplies. Water treatment plants were built initially at Ballymore Eustace and later at Leixlip. These were further developed and expanded over time as supply needs grew.
Poulaphuca Reservoir
Leixlip Reservoir
The Vartry and Liffey schemes (which were visionary in their day), developed for the benefit of the Region by Dublin City, ensured long-term secure supplies of high-quality water for Dublin. They enabled its economic development and growth for over a century. Both schemes required the construction of significant infrastructure to convey water to locations which in many instances were over 50km from source. For their day, they were major engineering and economic feats.
Vartry Reservoir and Roundwood Water Treatment Plant
As in the past, the Dublin Region is again approaching the stage where new long-term secure and sustainable supplies of water are critical to the next phase of its development, in order that it can continue to grow and contribute to the optimal performance of the state as a whole - economically, socially and environmentally - as envisaged in the National Spatial Strategy for balanced development which is a key component of the overall National Development Plan. Current supply / demand projections, which allow for the recession (2008 – 2010) and include for ambitious demand management initiatives, strongly indicate that without supplies from a new major source of water, the development of the region is likely to be constrained over the next 10 – 15 years. Delivery of a new source of adequate size within this timeframe will be challenging.
1.5
OVER RIDING PURPOSE
The over riding purpose of this Plan is to:
x Assess the long-term water supply needs of the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) in the context of projected economic growth strategies for the region and current / projected water supply & demand management initiatives
x Assess the need for future water supplies from a new source, the extent of the new supply need and the optimal timing of the new supply need from technical & operational perspectives
x Recommend a preferred new water supply scheme (to meet long-term water supply needs) and evaluate the technical, environmental, economic and socio-economic (stakeholder) aspects of the new scheme
x Evaluate & recommend procurement strategies and timelines for securing planning consent and implementation of a potential new scheme
This (2010) Plan builds on the initial 2006 draft Plan (3 Water Supply Options), the first phase of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA Phase 1 – 2006), public consultation in June / July 2006 and the subsequent adoption of SEA Phase 1 recommendations by Dublin City Council (Strategic Policy Committee) which established the framework for the subsequent evaluations of Shannon, Groundwater and Irish Sea (Desalination) sources as potential solutions for meeting the longterm water supply needs of the Dublin Region.
This (2010) Plan also builds on the 2008 draft Plan which was tabled for public consultation during SEA Phase 2 (Nov 08 – Feb 09) – the 2008 draft Plan included feasibility assessments of 10 Water Supply Options identified during the SEA Phase 1 consultation process.
1.6
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (1996-2010)
Figure 1.2 outlines the key milestones in the project’s development from the initial strategic study in 1996 (Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study – GDWSSS 96) up to the present Preliminary Report (2010).
Sections 1.6.1 to 1.6.5 describe in greater detail the key activities corresponding to the project milestones in Figure 1.2.
Figure 1.2 Project Milestones 1996 – 2010
GDWSSS 1996 – Potential New Source Need Identified
YEAR 2000 Review of GDWSSS 96
Feasibility Study of 3 Options – 2004/5
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Phase 1 Jan – July 2006 3 Options – Formal Public Consultation (June 06 – July 06)
Feasibility Study of 10 Options – 2007/8
Environmental Report
Habitats Directive Assessment Report
Analysis of Public Consultation Feedback / Sustainability Assessments Feb - Oct 2009
Plan (Amended Draft Plan) – Recommended Option DCC Adoption of Plan – October 2010
Draft Plan – 2008
Public Consultation – Draft Plan / Environmental Report / HDA Report November 2008 – February 2009
SEA Phase 2 -2007/9
Recommended Option (Shannon Lough Derg + External Storage) July 2010
Recommendations SEA Phase 1 – Dublin City Council (Oct / Nov 2006) Additional Shannon Options + Desalination Alternative
DCC Submission of Feasibility Study to DEHLG – August 2006
1.6.1 Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study 1996 / Year 2000 Review The potential need for a new water supply source for Dublin was first identified (officially) in 1996 as part of a strategic study into the Dublin Region’s longterm water supplies, carried out by the
Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government (Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study 1996). This study was reviewed and updated in 2000 (Year 2000 Review) and three new supply options were shortlisted for further study (Desalination / Shannon – Lough Ree / Liffey – Barrow). The year 2000 review also recommended a reduction in leakage and development of existing Dublin supply sources to their sustainable limits as priority recommendations ahead of the new source proposal.
1.6.2 Feasibility Studies (3 Options) / SEA Phase 1 Stakeholder Consultations A Feasibility Study of the three shortlisted options was carried out in 2005, followed by the first phase of Strategic Environmental Assessment in 2006*. Formal public consultation (as required by SEA) took place in June / July 2006. The Feasibility Study and SEA Phase 1 recommended that the Shannon was preferable to Desalination / Liffey Barrow as a new supply source option and that the Lough Ree Shannon location should be investigated in greater detail, in the first instance, on account of its closest proximity to the Dublin Region. The Lough Ree recommendation was made subject to full Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) being required, including the necessity for detailed hydrological modelling to identify with a high degree of confidence potential abstraction impacts on lake levels and flows. The recommendation recognised that availability of adequate water in Lough Ree for abstraction would require a significant degree of control of storage in the lake and that this would have to be reconciled with other competing interests (power generation, leisure boats, flooding, fisheries, etc). The need for a more detailed hydrological model was identified, in order to be able to accurately assess alternative management strategies and to take account of climate factors.
*The Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive (2001/42/EEC) was transposed into national legislation in Ireland in July 2004. This legislation requires that certain Plans and Programmes prepared by statutory bodies, which are likely to have a significant impact on the environment, be subject to the SEA process. Article 3(2) of the SEA Directive makes SEA mandatory for plans and programmes:
a) which are prepared for agriculture, forestry, fisheries, energy, industry, transport, waste management, water management, telecommunications, tourism, town and county planning or land use and which set the framework for future development consent for projects listed in Annexes I or II of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Directive (85/337/EEC); or
b) which, in view of the likely effect on sites, have been determined to require assessment pursuant to Article 6 or 7 of the Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC).
1.6.3 SEA Phase 1 Additional Stakeholder Consultations
Following on from formal SEA public consultation in June / July 2006, further consultation continued (August – October 2006) primarily with the (recently formed) statutory Shannon International River Basin District Advisory Council (ShIRBDAC) and non-statutory Shannon Protection Alliance (SPA). Both of these groups represented practically all Shannon stakeholders and enabled a more focused approach to stakeholder engagement than had been available during earlier stakeholder consultations as part of the Feasibility Study and SEA Phase 1 formal public consultation process.
Between August & October 2006, many new issues arose in relation to the general lack of consensus among stakeholders concerning the existing management & operation of the Shannon (by statutory operators ESB and Waterways Ireland). These issues were more numerous and detailed than the feedback issues which had emerged during the SEA Phase 1 formal public consultation period in June / July 2006. The stakeholder feedback particularly underlined the lack of consensus between navigation interests and riparian landowners in relation to water levels (flooding) in Lough Ree and downstream on the Shannon Callows. As a result, the controls and operational changes (at Athlone
sufficient degree of certainty. Without these controls prioritised for water abstraction, the required capacity could not be guaranteed as being available for Lough Ree.
1.6.4 Dublin City Council – Strategic Policy Committee / Expanded Range of Options
During August – October 2006, DCC and its advisers (RPS) concluded that the range of options which had been considered during SEA Phase 1 was too narrow and that further studies (including appropriate modelling support) involving a wider range of options were required to identify the optimum solution to the Dublin (& Mid East) Region’s impending water supply problems.
In October / November of 2006, the Strategic Policy Committee of Dublin City Council accepted the recommendations which emerged from the first phase of Strategic Environmental Assessment. They agreed that additional Shannon / Groundwater options should be investigated in greater detail and also stipulated that the Desalination Option was to be investigated at the same level of detail as the Shannon options.
The wider range of options (identified from the stakeholder feedback) included Lough Derg, Parteen Basin, use of external storage (cutaway bogs) and potential groundwater options in addition to a more proactive programme of leakage management and water conservation. As a consequence of the extensive stakeholder feedback, the initial range of options (3 No) was expanded by an additional 7 No options bringing the total for consideration to 10 No.
1.6.5 Feasibility Studies (10 Options) / SEA Phase 2 / Public Consultation Feasibility Studies of the expanded range of options were carried out in 2007 & 2008 including extensive consultations with statutory stakeholders. A second phase of Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA Ph2) commenced in early 2008.
Formal public consultation (as required by the SEA process) took place from November 2008 to February 2009 on the expanded range of potential water supply options. Information in relation to the project was lodged in hardcopy format in 17 Local Authority libraries and all data was made available digitally via a dedicated project website. The public were informed of the availability of project data via newspaper advertisements in the Irish Times, Irish Independent and Belfast Telegraph on 22 November 2008. During the public consultation period, 31 presentations were made to a wide variety of stakeholders and considerable feedback was received in subsequent ‘Question & Answer’ sessions which were minuted and recorded. The dedicated project website registered in excess of 2,500 ‘hits’. At the end of the formal public consultation period on 27 Feb 2009, in excess of 50 formal submissions (written & email) had been received from stakeholders and the general public (see Table 1.2).
Over the consultation period, regular interviews with local radio stations and local newspapers (in the Shannon Catchment Area and in Dublin) also assisted in informing the public on the progress of the studies and advised of the availability of project details in newsletters / Local Authority libraries and on the dedicated project website.
Table 1.2 SEA Phase 2 Public Consultation – Stakeholder Presentations / Submissions
- An Taisce - Birdwatch Ireland - Bord na Mona
- Border Midland and Western Regional Assembly
- Brian Pope (member of public) - Chamber’s Ireland
- Claire Wheeler – Green Party - Clare County Council (Clare Co
Co)
- Dublin City Council Strategic Policy Committee (SPC)
- Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR)
- Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG)
- DEHLG (National Parks and Wildlife Service)
- Dun Laoghaire Rathdown Co Co (DLRCC) SPC
- DEHLG (The architectural heritage advisory unit, The archaeological underwater unit and the national monuments unit)
- Dublin City Business Association (DCBA)
- Dublin Tourism
- Eastern Regional Fisheries Board (ERFB)
- Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
- Electricity Supply Board (ESB)
- Fáilte Ireland
- Fintan Donnelly (member of public)
- Galway Co Co - Galway Co Co SPC
- Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI) - GMC Contractors
- Golden Eagle Trust
- Hugh Lee (member of public) - Irish Business and Employers
Confederation (IBEC)
- Irish Farmers Association (IFA) - Irish Hotels Federation
- Inland Waterways Association of Ireland (IWAI)
- James Fenwick (former Dublin City Engineer)
- John McGinley (member of public) - Ken Irvine (Environmental Expert) - Kildare Co Co SPC
- Lansdowne Road Developments - Laois County Council
- Lisheen Mines - Longford Co Co
- Longford Heritage Forum - Lough Derg Anglers Association - Lough Derg Science Group
(LDSG)
- Lough Derg Science Group, Shannon IRBD and Limerick County Council
- Mid East Regional Authority
- Mid West Regional Authorities - Midlands Regional Authority - North Tipperary SPC
- Northern Ireland Environment Agency
- Offaly Co Co
- Roscommon County Council - Shannon International River Basin
District (ShIRBD) Advisory Council Members
- ShIRBD Management and Steering Group
- ShIRBD - Included copies of Submissions from SWAN (BirdWatch Ireland rep),SWAN (SOLD and VOICE rep), IFA representative and Chairman of the Advisory Council
- ShIRBD - Limerick Co Co - Shannon Protection Alliance - Shannon Region Fisheries Board
(ShRFB)
- Sinn Fein – Dublin - Sinn Fein – Nenagh
- Sustainable Development Ireland - Sustainable Water Network
(SWAN) (SOLD and VOICE rep) - The Heritage Council
- Warren Whitney (member of public)
- Waterways Ireland - West Regional Authority - Westmeath Co Co - Wine Board Ireland
1.6.6 Selection of Recommended Option / Stakeholder Feedback
Feedback from the SEA Phase 2 public consultation process, technical,environmental and economic analyses (sustainability assessments) resulted in the recommendation of a preferred water supply option for the Dublin & Mid East Regions (Northern Lough Derg + External Storage) – see Section 1.11. This Plan recommends that this option be brought forward into the formal planning process involving An Bord Pleanála which is the next stage in the overall development of this project.
The Plan incorporates relevant SEA stakeholder feedback which arose from public consultation and the findings of the SEA Environmental Report and HDA Report. As a result of the extensive feedback and changed circumstances since 2008 (economic conditions and proposed government domestic metering & charging policies), this Plan re-visits assumptions in the 2008 draft Plan in the following areas;
x Population projections (2010 – 2022 Regional Planning Guidelines)
x Levels of personal water consumption (per capita consumption – pcc) in light of the impending introduction of domestic water metering & volumetric charging (new Government policy)
x Reduced levels of customer leakage (domestic water metering & volumetric charging)
x Distribution network leakage through active leakage management and ongoing network rehabilitation programmes
x Reduced non-domestic water demand (economic downturn)
x Various technical & environmental issues which arose as part of the option evaluation process
A comprehensive account of all issues raised in relation to the 2008 Draft Plan during SEA public consultation is available in the Public Consultation Report on the dedicated project website ;
www.watersupplyproject-dublinregion.ie / publicconsultationreport.
1.7
NEED FOR PROJECT
1.7.1 Government Economic Growth Policy
High level Irish Government policy in relation to economic growth is set out in the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) and National Development Plan (NDP). Both of these policy documents recognise that national economic-growth objectives will continue to require managed development of the Greater Dublin Area (GDA) / Dublin Region to its full potential. The Greater Dublin Region is the key economic driver of the country as a whole, with over 50% of economic growth generated there. Economic growth objectives are provided for in the (Dublin & Mid East) Regional Planning Guidelines (2010 – 2022), supported by Development Plans in each Local Authority area within the Regions. The planned growth objectives in the Dublin & Mid East Regions as envisaged in the (2010 – 2022) Regional Planning Guidelines and National Spatial Strategy form the basis for estimating the extent of water availability which must be provided for, in order to sustain these economic growth targets. These longterm growth forecasts take account of high and low / negative growth economic cycles and extend the consistent longterm growth patterns for the Regions since 1960 (see Figure 1.5).
1.7.2 Headroom / Security of Supply
Demand for treated water in the Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) currently exceeds the sustainable production capability of the existing water treatment plants at Ballymore Eustace, Leixlip, Roundwood and Ballyboden. As a consequence, these plants are being operated in an unsustainable manner in order to meet day to day demand requirements. This ‘knife – edge’ operational regime and lack of ‘headroom’ availability in the Region presents an ever increasing risk to continuous supply availability, particularly from supply network failure, as critical infrastructure components cannot be taken out of service and upgraded as appropriate. Availability of adequate headroom is essential for servicing the needs of future industrial and other employment led demand in the Region as the economy recovers. Such headroom forms an essential component of water supply infrastructure for comparable conurbations in Europe and other developed countries. The extended cold spell experienced in Dublin (January 2010) gave rise to water shortages as a result of short term demand increases in conjunction with a lack of headroom capacity in the supply system. This has underlined the vulnerability of the supply in the absence of a new major source for the Region. Water supply management in the Region (pending the
arrival of supplies from a new source) will continue to be at risk from lack of adequate headroom capacity.
1.7.3 Water Demand Growth
Whilst operating with little or no headroom, demand growth over the past decade in the Dublin Region has largely been met by water savings from leakage management, water conservation initiatives, incremental expansion of Ballymore Eustace water treatment plant and operation of all treatment plants beyond their sustainable production capacities. Short term future demand growth will continue to require further aggressive water savings from sustained leakage management and water conservation, including planned network rehabilitation, in combination with additional water availability resulting from the expansion of Ballymore Eustace and Leixlip water treatment plants to their maximum sustainable limits. The scale of increased water availability from these initiatives, however, will at best maintain the status quo taking account of the likely increasing short term water demand growth in the Region. The increased water availability from these initiatives will not address the lack of strategic ‘headroom’ capacity in the Region and will do nothing to reduce vulnerability to short term contingencies (water demand increases resulting from severe climatic conditions or reduced production output resulting from outages).
1.7.4 Demand / Supply Projections 2009 - 2040
The assessments of long term water supply needs for the Dublin Region were carried out in the context of best practice water conservation measures being implemented within the region. Between 1996 and 2002, leakage was reduced from 42% to 28% primarily through active leakage management programmes. Reducing leakage levels below 28% requires ongoing sustained network rehabilitation – a substantial replacement programme (costing €120m) began in 2007. Metering of all non domestic water supplies was completed in early 2009 and planning has commenced in relation to extending metering to all domestic consumers and achieving the benefits of use related charging for water within the next 5 – 10 years, in line with indications signalled by Government in draft Budget 2010 with respect to metering and volumetric charging for domestic water supplies.
The analysis of projected water demand growth in the Dublin Region for the 2010 – 2040 period, has built on the findings of the DEHLG 1996 and 2000 studies updated to take account of the proposed policy to meter all customers (domestic as well as non-domestic) and to optimise water management.
Two demand scenarios have emerged from the projected demand growth analyses – Maximum Planning Scenario & Minimum Planning Scenario.
The ‘Maximum Planning Scenario’, was prepared in 2007 for Phase 2 of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process. The significant growth in water demand which occurred between 1996 and 2007 was largely met by increased production from existing sources combined with operational initiatives to reduce leakage. The 2007 demand forecasts largely concentrated on a continuation of this approach with a strong emphasis on network rehabilitation and active leakage control programmes with demand management strategies limited to customer awareness programmes, building bye-laws, promotion of water efficient appliances and 100% metering of the non-domestic sector.The need for / timing of potential supplies from a new source were evaluated against this background with lower emphasis on extensive domestic demand management initiatives in the absence of policies requiring domestic metering & charging.
This situation changed significantly in the latter half of 2009, with the publication of draft Budget 2010, which signalled proposed changes to Government Policy in relation to domestic metering and volumetric charging for water. The 2007 demand projections were revised in 2009 /10 to take account of the proposed Domestic Metering & Charging Policy changes (see Appendix A). A ‘Demand Review’ report was prepared (see Appendix AB) in order to inform the Plan of the impacts which could be anticipated on demand growth from the proposed policy changes. The Demand Review identified a
‘Minimum Achievable’ scenario which forms the basis for the ‘Minimum Planning Scenario’ on which the recommendations in this Plan are based.
The ‘Minimum Achievable’ / ‘Minimum Planning Scenario’ assumes that best practice water
conservation measures are being implemented in the Dublin Region in advance of the introduction of any supplies from a new source. Domestic demand growth forecasts assume that personal consumption is reduced by up to 15% as a result of the proposed policy changes. Customer leakage is reduced by up to 70%. Distribution system leakage is reduced from 29% to 20% through active leakage management and network rehabilitation. Forecast non domestic demand growth rates are reduced by up to 30% to reflect the current economic slowdown (2008 – 2010).
The targeted water savings for the Minimum Planning Scenario scenario are ambitious considering Dublin’s starting position, nevertheless they have been assessed as potentially achievable within acceptable budgetary and implementation risk constraints. This scenario is regarded as the ‘best practical environmental & economic scenario’ and is recommended in this Plan as the scenario on which planning for the development of a new water supply is based. Details of the Minimum Planning Scenario demand projections are contained in Appendix A. Appendix AB contains detailed reviews of various demand components including international ‘best practice’ comparisons and looks at cost / risk implications for extensive demand management initiatives.
The detailed supply / demand assessments (Chapter 2 & Appendix A), also include updated estimates of sustainable production from existing Dublin Region sources.
Approx 85% of Dublin’s water is abstracted from two locations on the River Liffey. Water abstracted from Poulaphuca on the Upper Liffey is treated at Ballymore– Eustace Water Treatment Plant (BME WTP) and water abstracted from Leixlip on the Lower Liffey is treated at Leixlip Water Treatment Plant (WTP). The remainder of the Region’s supply is abstracted from the River Vartry and River Dodder and some groundwater sources in Fingal and Kildare (Kildare’s dependence on Dublin supply sources will reduce by 10Mld – 20Mld with the development of a new Barrow source). All of these existing sources (particularly BME & Leixlip) are currently being
developed to their sustainable supply limits estimated at approx 627Mld (see Chapter 2 & Appendix A). Existing sources are anticipated to be fully developed by approx 2013 /14 (with the completion of Leixlip WTP expansion).
The sustainable production levels of BME, Leixlip, Roundwood and Ballyboden Treatment Plants are based on the historical capacity of the (Liffey, Vartry, Dodder) sources and make no allowance for projected reduced Summer flows due to Climate Change effects (see Section 1.7.8). Such effects in a dry Summer could reduce the level of sustainable abstractions available for the Region.
In summary, projections based on realistic supply capabilities and ambitious demand management targets predict that supplies from a new supply source are highly likely to be required (by 2020 latest) to ensure guaranteed supply availability into the future and satisfy the future needs of projected population and economic growth in the Region. These ambitious projections have a certain amount of risk which must be managed and any assumption that the projected scenario would occur over a longer period carries a very high level of risk that is likely to be unacceptable from a strategic planning viewpoint.
1.7.5 Timing of New Supply Requirements
As outlined in Section 1.7.4, two principal Demand Planning Scenarios emerged from the demand analyses (‘Minimum Planning Scenario’ & ‘Maximum Planning Scenario’).
The ‘Minimum Planning Scenario’ is the recommended Planning Scenario as it entails an overall integrated water resource management solution for the Dublin Region. This type of approach was advocated in much of the SEA public consultation stakeholder feedback which is fully accounted for in this scenario. The Minimum Planning Scenario main assumptions are summarised as follows;
- Full introduction of Domestic Metering & Charging by 2020 – 2022
- Reductions of up to 20% in personal usage (resulting from metering & charging)
- Reductions of up to 70% in customer leakage (resulting from metering & charging)
- Promotion of best practice demand management including bye-laws to encourage low water use
- Reductions in Distribution Network Leakage (Network Rehabilitation & Active Leakage Control) to 20% by 2040 from 29% (2010)
- Low to Medium Economic Growth (all zoned lands developed by 2040 as opposed to original SEA proposal of 2031)
In the Minimum Planning demand growth scenario, supplies from a new source will be required by (latest) 2022 when ‘average day’ demand equals the sustainable production capacity of existing sources (627Mld). The timing of new supply requirements for this scenario is illustrated (solid green line) in Figure 1.3 If planned leakage targets or savings from reduced personal consumption experience slippage, then the demand projections represented by the ‘solid green line’ will move backwards towards the ‘red line’ necessitating an earlier need for water supplies from a new source. In the Maximum demand growth scenario (prepared in 2007 for Phase 2 of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process) involving medium to high economic growth rates and limited savings from demand management, water conservation measures & leakage management, supplies from a new source could be required as early as 2016 (coloured red) in Figure 1.3.
In order to plan prudently for potential slippages in achievement of water savings from leakage reductions and water conservation, this Report recommends that planning commences now in order to ensure that supplies from a new source can be made available from 2020 onwards. This date represents the most likely ‘earliest delivery date’ for the project, assuming the planning process commences in 2010 (Planning Process 4 years / Procurement 2 years / Construction 4 years).
Figure 1.3 Minimum & Maximum Water Demand Growth Scenarios (Average Demand) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Year Ml d
Minimum Planning Scenario Maximum Planning Scenario (SEA Phase 2) Headroom
Maximum Planning Scenario (SEA Phase 2) Minimum Planning Scenario Unsustainable Production Sustainable Production
Barrow Supplies on stream Earliest Delivery Date
50Mld Headroom
1.7.6 Peak Demand & Headroom Allowances
Demand growth projections in Figure 1.3 are based on ‘Average Demand’. Management of water demand also requires that sufficient production & storage capacity is available to meet peak demands at certain times of the year and that sufficient excess capacity (headroom) is also available to cater for infrastructure failure / plant outages / pollution incidents (eg cyrptospiridium) etc.
The ‘Demand Review’ contained in the Demand Report (Appendix AB) considered four demand growth scenarios;
x Do Nothing
x Maintain Current (Equivalent to SEA Phase 2 - ‘Maximum Planning Scenario’)
x Minimum Achievable (Equivalent to ‘Minimum Planning Scenario’)
x ‘Theoretical Minimum’ scenario. This scenario effectively identified each component of demand (domestic / non domestic / leakage / headroom etc) and ‘cherry-picked’ best practice for each demand component across a range of international water companies. These best practice projections were then applied to the Dublin Region growth projections.
Figure 1.4 illustrates the four scenarios for peak demand including provision for headroom based on international best practice. The graph identifies that even for the ‘Theoretical Minimum’ scenario, supplies from a new source would still be required in the early 2020’s in order to manage peaks and have adequate headroom in place.
Figure 1.4 Peak Demand Growth Scenarios (incl Headroom provision)
Peak Water Demand Scenarios
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Year Ml d
Theoretical Minimum Minimum Achievable Maintain Current Do Nothing
1250 1053 942 742 627 Sustainable Production = 627Ml/d
1.7.7 New Source Supply Requirements
Dublin Region average demand projections have been estimated (Table 1.3 & Table 1.4) for the Minimum & Maximum demand growth scenarios as follows;
a) The Minimum Planning Scenario – 800Mld average demand reached at 2040
Table 1.3 Minimum Planning Scenario
Dublin Region (Water Supply Area) 1996 2008 2010 2016 2022 2031 2040 Average Total Demand (MId) 460 540 545 580 621 700 800 Max. Production of Dublin Region Sources (MId) 470 560 580 627 627 627 627
b) Maximum Demand Growth (SEA Ph 2 Scenario) – 800Mld average demand reached at 2031
Table 1.4 Maximum Planning Scenario (SEA Phase 2)
Dublin Region (Water Supply Area)
1996 2008 2010 2016 2022 2031 2040
Average Total
Demand (MId) 460 540 545 627 670 800 N/A
Max. Production of Dublin Region Sources (MId)
470 560 580 627 627 627 N/A
Maximum Sustainable Production (2014 onwards) of existing Dublin Region sources is 627Mld Supply requirements from a new source have been calculated as shown in Table 1.5.
Table 1.5 New Source Supply Requirements
Average Supply Requirements (at 2031 / 2040) = 800 Mld – 627 Mld = 173 Mld Additional Peak Requirements (at 2031 / 2040) = 80 Mld
Supply Allowance for Midlands Local Authorities = 50 Mld Headroom (Contingency) Allowance = 50 Mld Supply (new source) Total = 353 Mld
(say 350Mld)
1.7.8 Climate Change / Security of Supply
Climate change analyses for the East of Ireland project rainfall increases in Winter (+10% to +20% for 2010 – 2039) and reductions in Summer (-20% to -40% for 2010 – 2039). Projected increases / reductions in Winter / Summer rainfall for Ireland East have been advised by climate experts at NUI Maynooth (ICARUS). Raw water storage facilities at Poulaphuca and Roundwood have some limited potential for offsetting Winter rainfall increases against Summer rainfall reductions but the net effect of climate change in the East of Ireland will result in a long term gradual reduction in the sustainable yield of existing Dublin Region sources.
Ireland generally, and the East in particular, have had a series of wet summers in recent years and consequently, raw water shortages in the Region, as a result of climatic factors, have not arisen. However, there is little doubt that if a 1975 / 76 or 1995 type drought weather pattern re-emerged in the East before supplies from a new source become available, significant water shortages, particularly in the Liffey, could occur, leading to a return of water rationing and restrictions. A new supply source is necessary to ensure that this situation does not materialise.
In almost all years, Poulaphuca reservoir fills to its maximum operating level (consistent with managing flood risk) during the winter / spring season. This sustains summer river flows and
abstraction levels. Climate change could adversely impact on water availability for Dublin from the Liffey in a number of ways:
x Increased winter rainfall could lead to lower lake operating levels to manage flooding risk, leaving less water in storage
x Dryer summer weather could increase losses (evapotranspiration) depleting resources faster through the season
x Dryer summers would be likely to place upward pressure on water demands
1.7.9 Economic Downturn (2008 – 2010)
The current (2008 – 2010) downturn in the economic cycle has resulted in lower demand growth rates for 2008 / 09 which may continue into 2010. These short-term decreases must be viewed against a background which identifies clearly that water demand growth in the Dublin Region has increased in line with population growth for over 50 years. During this period many economic cycles have been experienced, with water demand patterns mirroring economic growth rates, but longterm water demand growth has continued at a consistent 1% - 2% underlying annual growth rate.
Figure 1.5 shows historic growth in Greater Dublin Area (Dublin & Mid East Regions) population from 1961 to the present and projections for 2009 to 2031. The population growth line and associated water consumption growth line for the 1961 to 2009 period show the same continuously increasing trend.
Three Central Statistics Office (CSO) population projections are illustrated for the 2009 – 2031 period.
1) M0F1 Traditional
2) M2F1 Traditional
3) M2F1 Recent
M0 = Net International Migration & Emigration = 0
M2 = Net International Migration & Emigration declining but greater than zero F1 = Current fertility rates (births / deaths)
Traditional = Internal Migration (into Dublin Region from within Ireland) prior to 1996 Recent = Internal Migration (into Dublin Region from within Ireland) between 1996 & 2008
Figure 1.5 GDA Historic Population Growth (1961 – 2009) & Projections (2009 – 2031)
GDA Population Growth 1961 - 2009 &
CSO Projections 2009 - 2031
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 196 1 196 6 197 1 197 6 198 1 198 6 199 1 199 6 200 1 200 6 201 1 201 6 202 1 202 6 P roj ec te d 2031 Year P opul a ti on ( 1 0 0 0 's )Population GDA (historic) Population GDA (projected) - M2F1 Recent
Population GDA (projected) - M0F1 Traditional National Spatial Strategy Population GDA (projected) - M2F1 Traditional
M - International Migration Scenarios F - Fertility Rates
Recent / Traditional - Internal Migration Scenarios
1.8
WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS
The Year 2000 Review of the Greater Dublin Water Supply Strategic Study (1996) identified three potential new source options for investigation with a view to assessing their potential for supplying the Dublin Region with secure sustainable longterm water supplies. Following Feasibility Studies (2005), these three options were tabled for public consultation within the SEA Phase 1 process in 2006. Feedback from public consultation resulted in Dublin City Council agreeing to include a wider range of water supply options (10 No) in follow - up Feasibility Studies during 2007/8. The ten options which were considered in detail as potential new supply sources for the Dublin Region are outlined schematically in Figure 1.6. Chapter 5 provides greater detail in relation to the (10 No) potential water supply options.
Figure 1.6 Water Supply Options A-Lough Ree B-Lough Derg C-Parteen Basin D-Lough Ree + Lough Derg E- Lough Ree + Storage F- Lough Derg + Storage Options G-Impoundment -Lough Ree [Derg]
H-Desalination I-Fingal / Kildare Groundwater J-Liffey / Barrow Lough Ree Lough Derg River Shannon ATHLONE
MULLINGAR Desalination Plant
Wells Killaloe A B C H G I J PORTLAOISE SLIEVE BLOOM MOUNTAINS TULLAMORE
Water Treatment Plant
Termination Point E F Parteen Basin Ballycoolen Former Bogs Ballymore Eustace Impoundment Poulaphuca Lake ESB Ardnacrusha River Shannon Head Race G Athy River Barrow E D F2 F1 MDW0158SK0036D14
1.8.1 River Shannon Water Supply Options
Of the ten (10) water supply options which were considered, seven (Options A to G) have Shannon storage locations as their water supply source. These options are:
A. Lough Ree (Direct) B. Lough Derg (Direct) C. Parteen Basin (Direct)
D. Lough Ree and Lough Derg (Phase 1 Abstraction Lough Ree (250Mld) followed by Phase 2 (100Mld) Lough Derg)
E. Lough Ree and Storage (Use of storage in Bord na Mona owned, cutaway bogs to enable excess winter water to be stored for later use in drier summer periods)
F. Lough Derg and Storage(Use of storage in Bord na Mona owned, cutaway bogs (F1 & F2) to enable excess winter water to be stored for later use in drier summer periods)
G. Impoundment (Abstraction from Lough Ree in high flow periods. Raw water impounded in dams / valleys in Dublin / Wicklow mountains for use during Shannon low flow periods) All River Shannon water supply options would involve the construction of pumping facilities to abstract raw water, and pipelines / treatment plants to bring treated water to consumers in the Dublin Region. Options A – D rely on existing Shannon lake storage while Options E – G involve supplementary external raw water storage.
1.8.2 Irish Sea Water Supply Option
H. Desalination
The Desalination water supply option is outlined in Figure 1.7. This option would involve the construction of a Desalination Plant (optimum site identified in North-East Fingal) and pipelines to transport the desalinated water to the Dublin Region water supply network at Ballycoolen Reservoir. This option benefits from unlimited raw water supply (Irish Sea) and relative proximity to the demand centre. These benefits are offset by cost of treatment, particularly energy cost.
Figure 1.7 Desalination Option Schematic
24 km Desalination Plant: Phase 2 capacity: 300 Mld Desalination Plant: Phase 2 capacity: 300 Mld Ballycoolen Reservoir Ballycoolen Reservoir 2 x 1100 m m Ø Pres su reM ains D esig n capa city: 300 M ld 2 x 1800m m Ø Pres sure M ains (3km ) D esig n capa city: 715M ld 2 x 1400 m m Ø Pres sure M ains (2km ) D esig n capa city: 415 M ld
Sea Water Pumping Station: Ph 2 : 715 Mld
Sea Water Pumping Station: Ph 2 : 715 Mld
Reverse Osmosis Treatment Plant: Ph 2 : 300 Mld
Reverse Osmosis Treatment Plant: Ph 2 : 300 Mld
Potable Water Pumping Station: Ph 2 : 300 Mld
Potable Water Pumping Station: Ph 2 : 300 Mld
MDW0158SK0045 Desal
1.8.3 Other Water Supply Options
I. Groundwater
This water supply option examined the potential for the development of groundwater supply sources in the Fingal and Kildare areas and extension to consideration of full hinterland within an 80km radius of Dublin (see Appendix C).
J. Liffey Barrow Conjunctive Use
Approx 50% of the Dublin Region’s water supply comes from Poulaphuca Lake on the Upper Liffey via Ballymore Eustace Water Treatment Plant. The Liffey-Barrow ‘conjunctive use’ option would involve sustainable abstractions of water from the River Barrow when sufficient quantities of water may be available (eg during higher flow periods) and combining these abstractions with variable abstractions from Poulaphuca with a view to increasing the overall supply to Ballymore Eustace Water Treatment Plant over and above what is sustainably available from Poulaphuca on its own.
1.8.4 General Option Overview All options considered are not of equal merit. Some have capacity limitations (eg Groundwater & Liffey Barrow) and are unable to meet anticipated supply requirements. Some options are preferred over others from an environmental sustainability perspective and there are cost differences between options which have to be assessed in conjunction with option technical & environmental performance.
1.9
EVALUATION OF OPTIONS
1.9.1 Option Evaluation Methodology
The Option Evaluation methodology which was used for assessing water supply involved two separate but interrelated processes;
1) Multi Criteria Analysis (Sustainability Assessments)
2) Strategic Environmental Assessment (Public Consultation)
Multi Criteria Analysis (Sustainability Assessments) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (Public Consultation) are closely linked (see Figure 1.8) – this reflects the overlap in environmental
considerations within the two separate processes.
Figure 1.8 Multi Criteria Analysis & Strategic Environmental Assessment
Multi-Criteria Analysis (Sustainability Assessments) Draft Plan Environmental Report HDA Report Strategic Environmental Assessment (Public Consultation)
1.9.2 Option Evaluation & Selection Process
Figure 1.9 outlines the overall Option Evaluation & Selection process. The ‘Preliminary Evaluation’ stage includes the initial Feasibility Studies of 3 Options, followed by SEA Phase 1 which resulted in an expanded range of options and Feasibility Studies of the total options (10 No.) which were considered.
The ‘Detailed Evaluation’ stage involved Multi Criteria Analyses (Sustainability Assessments) leading to the development of the Draft Plan which was tabled for Public Consultation under SEA Phase 2 in conjunction with the Environmental and Habitats Directive Assessment (HDA) Reports.
Figure 1.9 Option Evaluation & Selection Process
Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) – technical / environmental / economic / socio-economic evaluation of options to assess the potential for compliance with the principles of sustainable development
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of options including feedback from SEA public consultation
Feasibility Study of 10 Options – 2007/8
Analysis of Feedback Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA)
Sustainability Criteria - Technical
- Environmental - Economic - Socio -economic
Feasibility Study of 3 Options – 2004/5
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) – Phase 1 3 Options – Public Consultation ( June 06 – Oct 06)
Environmental Report
HDA Report
Preliminary Report – Recommended Option
Preliminary Evaluation Detailed Evaluation Draft Plan Public Consultation SEA Phase 2
1.10 SELECTION OF RECOMMENDED OPTION
The ranking of options based on MCA & SEA Evaluations was;
1) Option F2 (Northern Lough Derg & Storage Garryhinch Cutaway Bog) 2) Option B (Lough Derg Direct)
3) Option C (Parteen Basin Direct) 4) Option H (Desalination)
1.10.1 Recommended Option F2
Shannon Option F2 which has emerged as the recommended preferred scheme involves abstraction form north eastern Lough Derg of up to 410Ml/d of raw water (when Shannon flow conditions permit), pumping in a twin rising main to large raw water storage at Garryhinch, treatment at Garryhinch and treated water transmission to Dublin, Mid East and Midlands Regions. The proposed scheme, which is subject to phasing, would comprise the following at full development;
x Raw water intake at Lough Derg and pumping station following screening with capacity up to 410Ml/d
x Twin 1400mm raw water rising main, 62 km long with capacity to 410Ml/d and operating pressure 15 bar
x Raw water storage capacity at Garryhinch of 12 million cubic metres to balance seasonal Shannon flows
x Water Treatment Plant (at Garryhinch), expandable in modular fashion up to a maximum design capacity of 356Ml/d
x Twin 1200mm treated water rising main, 54 km long with capacity of 306Ml/d with associated treated water pumping station
x Balancing reservoir of capacity 42Ml and top water level 90-100m OD with transfer pumping station
x Feeder mains (twin 1000mm) to existing Saggart (DCC) and Peamount (SDCC) service reservoirs and augmentation from Peamount to Leixlip WTP to supplement that source.
Option F2 is the lowest cost option which is capable of meeting the Dublin Region’s long term water supply needs up to 2040 and beyond, whilst complying with all significant environmental constraints. The incorporation of large scale external raw water storage into the overall water supply scheme (through use of BNM cutaway bogs), in conjunction with abstraction of raw water from Lough Derg’s storage (controlled by ESB), ensures that the solution is technically robust and capable of meeting the long term water supply requirements of the Dublin & Midland Regions, in an environmentally sustainable and cost effective manner up to and beyond the 2040 planning horizon.
The recommended solution has the potential to benefit local Midland’s communities through the development of nature parks associated with raw water storage, provision of (indirect) water supplies to the Royal Canal and provision of water supplies particularly to Offaly, Laois and Westmeath County
