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(1)

Christophe PILLOT

c.pillot@avicenne.com

+33(0)1 4778 4600

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery market

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Presentation Outline

The rechargeable battery market in 2014

The Li-ion battery value chain

Li-ion battery material market 2014 - 2025

Forecasts & conclusions

(2)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 Num ber o f EV so ld world wid e ( Mi llio n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

2 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 M ill io n H EV p o we re d b y LIB IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY AAB (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012 ROLAND BERGER (2011) IIT (MARCH 2010) ROLAND BERGER (2012) DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) IIT (MARCH 2011)

(3)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

3

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000

2014

M

ill

ion

Uni

ts

/

ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

170 M

Portable

PCs

230 M

Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000

2014

M

ill

io

n

Un

its

/Yea

r

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000

2014

Ton

s

of

c

ath

od

e

/

Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000

2014

$/W

h

(4)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

1990

2000

2010

2012

2013

2014

2015

M

W

h

Others (Flow battery,

NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

4 2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments

(5)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M

W

h

Others (Flow battery,

NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market

(90% market share)

5

(6)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19 9 0 20 0 0 20 0 5 20 10 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 B ill io n U S $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid

60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level

1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)

6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19 90 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 13 20 14 20 15 B ill io n U S$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

(7)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION

Portable Automotive SLI 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 Others SLI Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 7

Battery market in 2014 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes

US $ 20

Billion for

“other”

applications

(8)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

8 (1) 2015 estimation data (2) Cell level

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15

M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Cellular Phones

Portable PCs

Others

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

20 00 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5

M

Wh

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others

5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh

13 600 M$ (2)

CAGR 2004/2014

+21 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

(9)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

CAGR 2004/2014

+20 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

9

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M

$

Li-ion Battery sales,

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Cellular Phones

Portable PCs

Others

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M

$

Li-ion Battery sales,

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3

Games E-Bikes Others

5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh

13 300 M$ (2)

(1) 2015 estimation data (2) Cell level

(10)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

10

CATHODE

>100 OOO T in 2014

Revenues: 2,5 B$

CAGR 04/14: +16%

ANODE

>55 000 T

Revenues: 0,8 B$

CAGR 03/13: +14%

ELECTROLYTE

>45 000 T

Revenues: 0,7 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR

> 700 M m²

Revenues: 1,15 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 18%

CELL MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

15 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,8 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

21 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER

7 500 Tons

Revenues: 0,2 B$

CAGR 08/13 : 15%

(11)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

11

CELLULAR PHONES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USA

Cellular phones demand

(M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Polymer Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Cyl. 25% Pris. 25% Lam. 50%

LIB cell format

(Volume) 2014

(12)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

12

PORTABLE PCS

FORECASTS 2010-2025

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20

(1)

to 60% in

2013

(2)

)

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs

increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from

7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Laminate Prismatic Cylindrical Cyl. 80% Pris. 1% Lam. 19%

LIB cell format

(Volume) 2014

0 50 100 150 200 250 Emerging Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2014-2025 – Almost stable

(13)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

13 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cel ls/y e ar Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 14-25: + 10%

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2 0 00 2 0 05 2 0 10 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 15 20 20 2 0 25 MW h Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones
(14)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

0 50 100 150

Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI

1

barrel of oil,

US $

MAJOR DRIVER: CO

2

regulation

worldwide: From 2013 to 2014

Oil price decrease but HEV sales

increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%

and EV by 60%

14

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide

1960-2030

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19 73 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 Gaso lin e Pr ic e US $ / G al lo n Cr u d e Oi l Pr ic e US $ / B ar re l

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

Source:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Note

1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2012 2015 2020 CO2 E m is sion (g/ km)

(15)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014

2 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units,

worldwide, 2000 - 2014

Penetration of hybrids in the

global sales, 2000-2014

15

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

2

0

0

2

2

0

0

3

2

0

0

4

2

0

0

5

2

0

0

6

2

0

0

7

2

0

0

8

2

0

0

9

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

1

2

0

1

2

2

0

1

3

2

0

1

4

M

ill

io

n

TOYOTA

OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

200

0

2

0

0

1

2

0

0

2

2

0

0

3

2

0

0

4

2

0

0

5

2

0

0

6

2

0

0

7

2

0

0

8

2

0

0

9

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

1

2

0

1

2

2

0

1

3

2

0

1

4

P

e

n

etr

ati

on

of

h

yb

ri

d

s

in

th

e

g

lob

al

e

sa

le

s

Growth 2013-2014: +5%

From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV

(16)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

16

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

P-HEV sales

Others Volvo Mitsubishi Ford Toyota GM Volt, Ampera 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EV sales

Others CHINA VW BMW Honda Toyota Tesla Renault Smart Ford MITSUBISHI NISSAN US 41% JAPON 25% EUROPE 22% CHINE 5% Others 7% US 25% JAPAN 11% EUROPE 26% CHINA 31% OTHERS 7%

P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)

+28%

(17)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

17

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS

2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015

0 2000 4000 6000 PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US Sony BYD LG Chem JCI A123 Sanyo Ener1 Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam GS YUASA SB Limotive Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky LG Chem Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba Blue Energy Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen BAK SAFT US SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy AESC Japon NEC Tokin Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH TESLA (2014-2017) BYD (2013 - 2015) ATL (2014 - 2017) M$ Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

2014 – 2017

TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments:

150 $ / kWh

(18)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

SAFETY ISSUES

18

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further

development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled

their projects

Bac

k

groun

d

M

obile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

A

ut

omot

iv

e

A

irc

ra

ft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode

(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)

(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)

(19)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

19

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues

(20)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

(21)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2014-2020

LIB cell average cost

(36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

21

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year (1) Active materials only

2015* 2020*

2014*

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ce ll Pa ck Ce ll P ack Ce ll Pa ck $ / k Wh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014

2015

2020

$

/

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)

(22)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9 2 2,2 3,2 5 0,135 0,17 0,4 0,65 0,25 0,35 1 1,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 M ill io n c ar s EV P-HEV HEV

S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

22

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could

change the game

0,9 1,9 2,1 3,2 5 0,13 0,16 0,38 0,62 0,17 0,27 0,75 1,1 0,3 1 1 1,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 M ill io n c ar s EV in China P-HEV in China HEV in China EV P-HEV HEV

(23)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +16% /

S2:+22%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2014-2025: +11% /

S2: +13%

23 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 (China Explosion)

Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change

the game

(24)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

24

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries

(sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba ->

Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the

micro-hybrid market

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010

2015

2020

M

illi

o

n

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

Optimistic

Scenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid

Full HEV

Battery

Advanced lead

acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($)

300

3000

Fuel saving

5%

20%

Million Vehicle

sold per year in

2020

35

3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times

less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline

instead of 20% (4 times less)

(25)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

25

Stan

d

ard

Le

ad

ac

id

B

att

eries

2010

2015

2020

AFTER

Li

-io

n

b

att

eries

NiM

H

batt

er

ie

s

STANDARD CAR

88.5%

EV P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Advan

ce

d

Lead

aci

d

NiMH

STANDARD CAR

< 44%

MICRO HYBRID

> 50%

EV P-HEV 2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

(26)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

“OTHER APPLICATIONS”

10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET

1

0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000

Lead Acid

LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

26

Battery market in 2012 (M$)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 1- Pack level 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Lead Acid

LIB

Battery market in 2020 (M$)

>

US

$

10

B

>

U

S$

7

B

(27)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS

Li-ion cell market (B$)

Li-ion Pack market

1

(B$)

27

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…

S2: Chinese EV market explosion

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Others (2) Automotive Portable 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Others (2) Automotive Portable

Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh

Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh /

S2: 100 GWh

Others: from 7 to 32 GWh

2014 -2025

(28)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

TAKEAWAYS

28

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs &

electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)

For HEV, the battery technology is today the

NiMH

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota)

switch to Li-ion

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion:

6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in

2025

EV expectations attract large Chemical

companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive

standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the

automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Huge Chinese Market appears in 2014: to be

followed !

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in

2025 in volume & value

A very small EV market in the automotive world

will represent

a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift,

Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15%

in the next 15 years

In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than

5% of the total battery market

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000

2010

2020

2025

M

W

h

Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%) LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%) Others 25 B$ 54B$ 64 B$ 83 B$ > 100 B$ 280 GWh 380 GWh 575 GWh 775 GWh 14 12 52 32 (CAGR 2014-2025) 16

(Pack level)

4,3 60B$
(29)

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com

September 23-25, 2015

Montreux, Switzerland

Future trends in the

rechargeable battery

market

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

c.pillot@avicenne.com

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

29

References

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