Christophe PILLOT
c.pillot@avicenne.com
+33(0)1 4778 4600
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery market
Director, AVICENNE ENERGY
Christophe PILLOT
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Presentation Outline
•
The rechargeable battery market in 2014
•
The Li-ion battery value chain
•
Li-ion battery material market 2014 - 2025
•
Forecasts & conclusions
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO
HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS
HEV powered by Lithium ion battery
forecasts from 2008 to 2014
EV sold, in million units, worldwide,
2010 - 2020
0 1 2 3 4 5 2010 2015 2020 Num ber o f EV so ld world wid e ( Mi llio n)Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011
2 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 M ill io n H EV p o we re d b y LIB IIT 2007 IIT 2008 IIT 2009 IIT 2010 AVICENNE 2007 REALITY AAB (2012) AVICENNE 2007-2012 ROLAND BERGER (2011) IIT (MARCH 2010) ROLAND BERGER (2012) DEUTSCHE BANK (2012) IIT (MARCH 2011)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
3
THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY
DYNAMIC
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000
2014
M
ill
ion
Uni
ts
/
ye
ar
Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
NiMH
170 M
Portable
PCs
230 M
Tablets
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000
2014
M
ill
io
n
Un
its
/Yea
r
Portable PC sold per Year (Million)
Li-ion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000
2014
Ton
s
of
c
ath
od
e
/
Ye
ar
Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2000
2014
$/W
h
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
1990
2000
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
M
W
h
Others (Flow battery,
NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
4 2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry
investments
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
M
W
h
Others (Flow battery,
NAS, …)
Li-ion
NiMH
NiCD
Lead Acid
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
MW
h
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments
Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market
(90% market share)
5
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
1990-2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19 9 0 20 0 0 20 0 5 20 10 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5 B ill io n U S $ Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level
1
5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)
6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 19 90 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 13 20 14 20 15 B ill io n U S$ OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…
PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals, POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools
INDUSTRIAL
• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others
• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,
AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV
OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET
IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION
Portable Automotive SLI 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 Others SLI Automotive Portable Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes 7Battery market in 2014 (M$)
1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000
Lead Acid LIB
Other Applications Marine Medical devices Wheelchair Medical Cart Other Stationary Seismic ESS Other Stand-by UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes
US $ 20
Billion for
“other”
applications
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
8 (1) 2015 estimation data (2) Cell level
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales,
MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Cellular Phones
Portable PCs
Others
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
20 00 20 0 1 20 0 2 20 0 3 20 0 4 20 0 5 20 0 6 20 0 7 20 0 8 20 0 9 20 1 0 20 1 1 20 1 2 20 1 3 20 1 4 20 1 5M
Wh
Li-ion Battery sales,
MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Tablets Power Tools Camcorders Digital Camera Video Games MP3
Toys Auto Household devices E-bikes Others
5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh
13 600 M$ (2)
CAGR 2004/2014
+21 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
LI-ION IN 2014
MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK
CAGR 2004/2014
+20 % per year in Volume
+14% per year in value
9
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
M
$
Li-ion Battery sales,
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Cellular Phones
Portable PCs
Others
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
M
$
Li-ion Battery sales,
M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)
Automotives Tablets Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3
Games E-Bikes Others
5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh
13 300 M$ (2)
(1) 2015 estimation data (2) Cell level
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND
10
CATHODE
>100 OOO T in 2014
Revenues: 2,5 B$
CAGR 04/14: +16%
ANODE
>55 000 T
Revenues: 0,8 B$
CAGR 03/13: +14%
ELECTROLYTE
>45 000 T
Revenues: 0,7 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 20%
SEPARATOR
> 700 M m²
Revenues: 1,15 B$
CAGR 04/14 : 18%
CELL MANUFACTURERSRevenues:
15 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
ANCILLARY
Revenues: 0,8 B$
PACK
MANUFACTURERS
Revenues:
21 B$
Gross margin:
<10%
BINDER
7 500 Tons
Revenues: 0,2 B$
CAGR 08/13 : 15%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
11CELLULAR PHONES
FORECASTS 2010-2025
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 OTHERS INDIA ASIA CHINA JAPAN EUROPE USACellular phones demand
(M Units)
CAGR 2010-2025: +6%
Cellular Phones market Drivers
Emergent market
Renewal ratio increase
Smartphone penetration increase
LIB cells for cellular phones
trends
Laminates ratio increase
Increase of Thickness
Increase of >1400 mAh capacity
LIB cells demand 2014-2025
Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Polymer PrismaticSource: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
Cyl. 25% Pris. 25% Lam. 50%
LIB cell format
(Volume) 2014
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
12
PORTABLE PCS
FORECASTS 2010-2025
Portable PCs market trends
Mature market stable or decreasing
Growth driven by Emerging market
Ultrabook is increasing (20
(1)to 60% in
2013
(2))
ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs
increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012
(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy
LIB cells for portable PCs trends
Thinner cells
Polymer penetration increasing from
7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025
> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate
2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market
LIB cells demand 2014-2025
Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Laminate Prismatic Cylindrical Cyl. 80% Pris. 1% Lam. 19%
LIB cell format
(Volume) 2014
0 50 100 150 200 250 Emerging MaturePortable PCs demand (M Units)
2014-2025 – Almost stable
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE
ELECTRONIC DEVICES
2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by
application (3C)
2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,
by form factor (3C)
13 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M cel ls/y e ar Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses
CAGR 14-25: + 10%
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 2 0 00 2 0 05 2 0 10 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 15 20 20 2 0 25 MW h Others Household Toys MP3 Video Games Digital Camera Camcorders Cordless Phones Tablets Portable PCs Cellular PhonesChristophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
0 50 100 150Million barrel per day
Price of the WTI
1barrel of oil,
US $
MAJOR DRIVER: CO
2
regulation
worldwide: From 2013 to 2014
Oil price decrease but HEV sales
increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30%
and EV by 60%
14
WHY X-EV ?
Petroleum consumption worldwide
1960-2030
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19 73 20 05 20 07 20 09 20 11 20 13 20 15 Gaso lin e Pr ic e – US $ / G al lo n Cr u d e Oi l Pr ic e US $ / B ar re lSource: Energy Information Administration, US Government
Source:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Note
1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2012 2015 2020 CO2 E m is sion (g/ km)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2014
2 M HEV
HEV sold per year, M units,
worldwide, 2000 - 2014
Penetration of hybrids in the
global sales, 2000-2014
15
Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
M
ill
io
n
TOYOTA
OTHERS
USA
JAPON
EUROPE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
200
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
2
0
1
4
P
e
n
etr
ati
on
of
h
yb
ri
d
s
in
th
e
g
lob
al
e
sa
le
s
Growth 2013-2014: +5%
From 1,9 M to 2 M HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
16
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P-HEV sales
Others Volvo Mitsubishi Ford Toyota GM Volt, Ampera 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 200 000 250 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014EV sales
Others CHINA VW BMW Honda Toyota Tesla Renault Smart Ford MITSUBISHI NISSAN US 41% JAPON 25% EUROPE 22% CHINE 5% Others 7% US 25% JAPAN 11% EUROPE 26% CHINA 31% OTHERS 7%P-HEV & EV SALES 2010-2014 (YEARLY)
+28%
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
17
LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS
2009-2015
10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)
< 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)
TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015
0 2000 4000 6000 PANASONIC NISSAN Motor US Sony BYD LG Chem JCI A123 Sanyo Ener1 Nissan-Renault (Fr) Dow Kokam GS YUASA SB Limotive Hitachi Vehicle Energy Lithium Energy Japan Rusnano-Thunder Sky LG Chem Nissan - Renault (UK)
Toshiba Blue Energy Nissan-Renault (Port) Lishen BAK SAFT US SAFT Hitachi Vehicle Energy AESC Japon NEC Tokin Mitsubishi H.I. SK Energy Panasonic EV LiTec GmbH TESLA (2014-2017) BYD (2013 - 2015) ATL (2014 - 2017) M$ Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing
Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015
2014 – 2017
TESLA, ATL, BYD
Investments:
150 $ / kWh
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
SAFETY ISSUES
18
Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious
safety concerns
In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further
development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.
• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled
their projects
Bac
k
groun
d
M
obile
Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte.
In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)
CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date
A
ut
omot
iv
e
A
irc
ra
ft
Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.
CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.
With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:
(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode
(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)
(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION
CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES
19
Some technologies are already out of the game due to
stability issues
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS
IN LIB INDUSTRY
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
LI-ION BATTERY COST
2014-2020
LIB cell average cost
(36Ah pouch)
(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)
LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST
FOR EV
21
* For Production > 100 000 packs/year (1) Active materials only
2015* 2020*
2014*
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Ce ll Pa ck Ce ll P ack Ce ll Pa ck $ / k Wh Pack Cost Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2014
2015
2020
$
/
kW
h
Margin
Warranty
Overheads
Sales & Adm
R&D
Energy, utilities
Direct labor
Depreciation
Others
Separator
Electrolyte
Anode (1)
Cathode (1)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS
0,9 2 2,2 3,2 5 0,135 0,17 0,4 0,65 0,25 0,35 1 1,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 M ill io n c ar s EV P-HEV HEV
S1: HEV, P-HEV & EV market
forecasts up to 2025
S2: HEV, P-HEV & EV market
forecasts up to 2025
22
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could
change the game
0,9 1,9 2,1 3,2 5 0,13 0,16 0,38 0,62 0,17 0,27 0,75 1,1 0,3 1 1 1,5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2014 2015 2020 2025 M ill io n c ar s EV in China P-HEV in China HEV in China EV P-HEV HEV
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND
2025 FORECASTS
EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh)
CAGR 2014-2025: +16% /
S2:+22%
Total battery demand (MWh)
CAGR 2014-2025: +11% /
S2: +13%
23 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M WhNiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV
LIB for EV S2 EV China Explosion 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 200 000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 M Wh
NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV S2 (China Explosion)
Scenario 2: thanks to very high incentives, China could change
the game
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN
2020
Micro-hybrids car market
2010-2020
Micro-hybrid batteries
24
Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries
(sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)
LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba ->
Suzuki)
Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the
micro-hybrid market
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010
2015
2020
M
illi
o
n
Micro-hybrid car sold per year
AVICENNE
Optimistic
Scenario
JD Power
Valeo
Micro-hybrid
Full HEV
Battery
Advanced lead
acid
NiMH or LIB
Cost ($)
300
3000
Fuel saving
5%
20%
Million Vehicle
sold per year in
2020
35
3.5
Advantages of micro-hybrid
compare to HEV
Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times
less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline
instead of 20% (4 times less)
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL
BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID
BATTERIES
25Stan
d
ard
Le
ad
ac
id
B
att
eries
2010
2015
2020
AFTER
Li
-io
n
b
att
eries
NiM
H
batt
er
ie
s
STANDARD CAR
88.5%
EV P-HEVFULL
HEV
1%
MILD
HEV
0.5%
MICRO
HYBRIDS
10%
Advan
ce
d
Lead
aci
d
NiMH
STANDARD CAR
< 44%
MICRO HYBRID
> 50%
EV P-HEV 2%FULL
HEV
4%
ULTRA
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
“OTHER APPLICATIONS”
10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET
1
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000Lead Acid
LIB
Other Applications
Marine
Medical devices
Wheelchair
Medical Cart
Other Stationary
Seismic
ESS
Other Stand-by
UPS
Telecom
Other Motive
Forklift
Power Tools
E-Bikes
26Battery market in 2012 (M$)
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013 For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries 1- Pack level 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000
Lead Acid
LIB
Battery market in 2020 (M$)
>
US
$
10
B
>
U
S$
7
B
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS
Li-ion cell market (B$)
Li-ion Pack market
1
(B$)
27
1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included 2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…
S2: Chinese EV market explosion
Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Others (2) Automotive Portable 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 Others (2) Automotive Portable
Portable: from 29 to 65 GWh
Automotive: from 10 to 60 GWh /
S2: 100 GWh
Others: from 7 to 32 GWh
2014 -2025
Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
TAKEAWAYS
28
Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …
Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs &
electronic devices (smartphones, tablets)
For HEV, the battery technology is today the
NiMH
In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota)
switch to Li-ion
P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion:
6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in
2025
EV expectations attract large Chemical
companies
New materials are needed to meet Automotive
standards
HEV will account for less than 5% of the
automotive sales in 2020
P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020
Huge Chinese Market appears in 2014: to be
followed !
Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%
Lead acid battery will be the first market in
2025 in volume & value
A very small EV market in the automotive world
will represent
a huge market for batteries
New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift,
Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15%
in the next 15 years
In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than
5% of the total battery market
Battery Market 2010-2025
CAGR = +10%
RECHARGEABLE BATTERY
MARKET WORLDWIDE
2000-2025
2000
2010
2020
2025
M
W
h
Others LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-6%) LIB for 3C (+1%) LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+11%) Others 25 B$ 54B$ 64 B$ 83 B$ > 100 B$ 280 GWh 380 GWh 575 GWh 775 GWh 14 12 52 32 (CAGR 2014-2025) 16
(Pack level)
4,3 60B$Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 c.pillot@avicenne.com
September 23-25, 2015
Montreux, Switzerland
Future trends in the
rechargeable battery
market
THANK YOU
Christophe PILLOT
AVICENNE ENERGY
c.pillot@avicenne.com
Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00
Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49
29