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Report

Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street

Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

Prepared for Christchurch City Council (Client) By Beca Ltd (Beca)

3 November 2014

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

Beca // 3 November 2014 // Page II 3383490 // NZ1-9499213-44 2.1

Executive Summary

Christchurch City Council (CCC) and the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) are proposing to improve access for people and freight to and from the north of Christchurch by constructing, operating and maintaining a new transport corridor. This new transport corridor is called the Christchurch Northern Corridor (CNC). The need for the CNC has been well established in several transportation studies over the years looking at access on the northern side of Christchurch, as well as connectivity with the port of Lyttelton.

The completion of the CNC includes two projects being progressed through separate planning and delivery processes, one undertaken by CCC, and the other by the NZTA. The projects are closely linked and each is considered operationally integral for the progression of the other.

CCC has proposed the construction of the Northern Arterial Extension (NAE) and the widening of Cranford Street to four lanes through to Innes Road (the Cranford Street Upgrade - CSU). This is subsequently referred to as ‘The Project’. It is intended that the NAE will provide a seamless road connection between the Northern Arterial (NArt) and the CSU.

CCC lodged a Notice of Requirement (NOR) for the NAE and CSU in October 2013. The NOR included an Assessment of Environmental Effects. A Section 92 was issued requesting further information which was responded to at the time except for one matter relating to use of a Fixed Trip Matrix for induced traffic effects. The response to this matter was dependent on NZTA producing an updated modelling report in respect of the NArt.

This Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA) uses updated modelling information to address the outstanding Section 92 matter and enables further detail to be provided in respect of the

Assessment of Environmental Effects contained in the NOR, including downstream effects. The NZTA are preparing a similar document, called an Integrated Transport Assessment (ITA), for the NArt component of the CNC. Both this TAA and NZTA’s ITA are informed by the common traffic modelling assessment, as described in the CNC Traffic Modelling Report (TMR).

The Project, and the full CNC, is expected to provide significantly improved travel conditions for people and goods travelling from the north towards Christchurch. Travel times between Kaiapoi (and the wider Waimakariri District), as well as Belfast and other northern suburbs, and the Central City are predicted to reduce by up to 12 minutes at peak times.

Travel time benefits are not restricted to just those people using the CNC – travel times on the existing parallel routes are also predicted to reduce, as traffic re-routes to use the CNC. Along these parallel routes the drop in traffic volumes is likely to improve the amenity of these areas and reduce the severance effects of the existing roads.

The completion of the CNC is also important for a number of consented residential developments in the Marshland area, such as the Prestons and Highfield developments. Consent conditions limit the level of uptake before completion of the full CNC.

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At the city end of the CNC, more traffic is expected to use the CSU section of Cranford Street than would be the case without the Project. This is due to drivers re-routing onto the CNC to benefit from the improved travel conditions provided by the NArt, NAE and CSU. At the southern end of the CSU, more vehicles are expected to travel on the downstream roads (which are not subject to improvement as part of this Project), including likely rat-running through local residential areas. These expected outcomes are consistent with earlier investigations, which have been undertaken using pre- and post-Earthquake demographic projections, as well as a variety of modelling

platforms. This would indicate that the Project (and the full CNC) is considered necessary across a wide range of potential outcomes for the urban form, shape and growth of northern Christchurch and the Waimakariri District.

The additional traffic will likely have an adverse effect on residents and businesses in the immediate area around the end of the CSU. To mitigate these effects traffic calming is recommended on McFaddens Road, Weston Road and Knowles Street on both sides of the CSU to deter through traffic from using these local roads. It is also recommended that monitoring before and after the completion of the Project is undertaken to consider whether additional traffic calming may be required.

Continued investigation of the downstream effects of the CNC is recommended, with the following objectives:

 Identify preferred vehicle access routes, particularly for trucks, between the end of the CNC and the Central City

 Identify strategies to keep vehicles on these preferred vehicle access routes; and

 Discourage vehicles away from PT and walking/cycling routes, such as the Main North Road/Papanui Road and Rutland Street corridors respectively.

Road safety is expected to improve as a result of the full CNC. The new four lane, median divided motorway should be safer than the surrounding roads from which traffic is drawn. Separation of opposing traffic by median barriers and restrictions on right turns at intersections on the QEII Drive 4-laning and CSU sections represent a safer road environment with the increase in traffic. Away from the urban section of the CSU, provision of off-road shared use paths for walking and cycling along the NAE and NArt alignment separate these vulnerable road users from high traffic volumes. An assessment of the predicted crashes on the full CNC indicates that it is expected to be safer than the current road network.

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

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This Project (the NAE and CSU) is an integral and necessary component of the overall CNC, without which the full benefits of the CNC will not be able to be realised. In this context, it is expected that the Project will deliver overall benefits to the regional and city-wide community in terms of:

 travel time savings

 road safety improvements

 removal of traffic from residential areas and enabling PT upgrades along Main North Road

 increased community amenity

 improved PT access

 improved cycle and walking access

 supportive of earthquake recovery and planned growth.

It is considered that the likely adverse effects to residents and businesses in the immediate vicinity of Cranford Street, as well as along the downstream routes connecting through to the Central City, will be offset by these wider benefits.

Mitigation designed into the Project, as well as recommended in this Addendum, would reduce the severity of these adverse effects. Downstream effects will be mitigated, where necessary, as an outcome of the recommended further investigation.

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Table of Contents

1  Introduction ...1  1.1  Background ... 1  1.2  Report Purpose ... 2  1.3  Report Structure ... 2  2  Traffic Modelling ...3  2.1  Overview ... 3 

2.2  Previous Modelling and Studies ... 3 

2.3  Traffic Models – What They Do ... 5 

2.4  Assessment of Induced Traffic ... 6 

2.5  Effects on Travel Patterns ... 6 

2.6  Strategic Modelling Outcomes ... 8 

3  Assessment of Road Network Effects ...16 

3.1  Road Classifications in Christchurch ... 16 

3.2  Effects on Road Network ... 18 

3.3  Operational Modelling ... 35 

3.4  Downstream Effects ... 42 

4  Assessment of Other Transportation Effects ...45 

4.1  Passenger Transport and Active Modes ... 45 

4.2  Section 92 Responses ... 46 

4.3  Road Safety ... 47 

5  Construction Traffic Effects ...51 

6  Recommended Mitigation ...52 

6.1  Introduction ... 52 

6.2  Mitigation of Operational Effects ... 52 

6.3  Mitigation of Construction Traffic Effects ... 53 

7  Conclusion ...54 

Appendices

Appendix A: Christchurch Northern Corridor Traffic Modelling Report Appendix B: Operational Modelling – SIDRA Outputs

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The NAE and CSU Project is a key component of CCC’s planned transport network for north Christchurch, supporting the Christchurch Greater Urban Development Strategy and the outcomes of the Christchurch Northern Access Transport Investigation (CNATI). Those strategic projects have confirmed the need for the Project works to address current transport deficiencies and to support projected residential and business growth.

Notices of Requirement (NOR) for the NAE and the CSU have been lodged by the CCC and for the Northern Arterial by NZTA in 2013.

1.2 Report Purpose

As indicated above, the CCC lodged a Notice of Requirement (NOR) for the NAE and CSU in October 2013. The NOR included an Assessment of Environmental Effects (AEE). A Section 92 request was issued requesting further information which was responded to at the time except for one matter relating to use of a Fixed Trip Matrix for induced traffic effects. The response to this matter was dependent on NZTA producing an updated modelling report in respect of the Northern Arterial.

This Transport Assessment Addendum (TAA) uses the updated modelling information to address the outstanding Section 92 matter and also enables further detail to be provided in respect of the AEE contained in the NOR, including downstream effects. The updated modelling is contained in the CNC Traffic Modelling Report (TMR).

In particular, the Scheme Assessment Report (SAR) completed for the Project in October 2013, and which the NOR AEE draws on, assesses the economic efficiency of various options for the Project to determine the ‘preferred’ option for designation. Updating the traffic modelling ensures

consistency in traffic flows between the different CNC projects and allows comparison of the combined operational effects of the CNC on the transport network, including this Project, plus the NZTA components. This report will review the current modelling outcomes in the context of the SAR findings and provide additional information where necessary.

The NZTA are preparing a similar document, called an Integrated Transport Assessment (ITA) for their components of the CNC. Both this TAA and NZTA’s ITA are informed by the common traffic modelling assessment, as described in the TMR.

1.3 Report Structure

The structure of this report will be as follows:

Section 2 reports on the modelling process and compares the previous SAR outcomes with the latest traffic modelling reported in the CNC TMR

Section 3 assesses the predicted effects on the road network of this Project in the context of the overall CNC project

Section 4 summarises the predicted effects on Public Transport (PT) and active modes, as well as expected road safety changes

Section 5 addresses the high-level construction impacts on the transport network Section 6 identifies the mitigation proposed for this Project

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

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2

Traffic Modelling

2.1 Overview

The modelling undertaken for the SAR consisted of a three tiered process as follows:

 Macro modelling using the Christchurch Transportation Model (CTM)

 Meso modelling using the Christchurch Assignment and Simulation Traffic (CAST) Model

 Micro modelling using SIDRA models of intersections.

The modelling conducted was for option assessment and economic evaluation purposes of the Project. It did not consider the effects of induced traffic caused by the full CNC (being this Project, plus the NArt and QEII Dr 4-laning). Additionally, the assessment of effects was undertaken against a Do Minimum (or baseline) scenario which included those NZTA components of the CNC. As previous investigations have found that “the Northern Arterial would be very ineffective without the

extension from QEII Drive to Cranford Street and increased capacity along Cranford Street”1

, this is a very unlikely scenario.

To provide for a robust assessment of the combined effects of the NZTA and CCC components of the CNC, a further round of strategic modelling has been undertaken. This is based around a variable demand matrix assessment, whereby different traffic demands are used in the ‘Do Minimum’ and ‘Option’ networks. This better reflects the likely demand for travel based on those networks. It explicitly includes the effects of induced traffic, as well as using the most recent land-use projections and scheme design. It has also been based on a forecast year of 2031, which is likely to be approximately 10 years post-opening of the CNC projects.

This section presents a summary of the studies which have culminated in the Project being progressed. It then compares the previously predicted traffic volumes (reported in the SAR) with those from this latest modelling, highlighting both differences and similarities between the outcomes.

2.2 Previous Modelling and Studies

A number of previous studies have been undertaken to investigate urban growth requirements and the access to northern Christchurch and the Waimakariri District. The objectives and results of these previous investigations are reported in the SAR2, with pertinent points summarised again in

this section.

2.2.1 Christchurch Northern Roading Options Scoping Study

The first of these studies in recent times was the Christchurch Northern Roading Options Scoping Study (NROSS), which was commenced in 1998 and completed in 2002. Despite the use of the term ‘roading options’ study, NROSS had a broader scope in looking at the transportation problems and opportunities to the north of Christchurch. In particular, this included the potential to reduce through traffic within the Belfast area and promote passenger transport (PT), walking and cycling.

1 Pages 7-8, Christchurch Northern Roading Options Scoping Study – Executive Summary, 2002 2

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The study examined the feasibility and effectiveness of upgrading either or both Main North Road and Marshland Road and concluded that these options did not provide a satisfactory solution. Marshland Road was identified as having significant construction risks due to the poor and marshy ground conditions, while Main North Road was rejected due to the existing social severance and amenity issues that exist.

The study recommended the construction of a ‘Northern Arterial’, a new road bypassing Belfast and running north-south parallel to Main North Road and Marshland Road. In connecting the

Christchurch Northern Motorway with QEII Drive, the ‘Northern Arterial’ would thereby relieve both Marshland Road and Main North Road by separating the longer distance trips from local trips and create enhanced opportunities for PT on Main North Road, an identified key PT corridor.

The NROSS study also investigated how best to connect the southern end of a north-south arterial with the existing road network. The connection through to Cranford Street was recommended, along with other potential locations for further connections.

2.2.2 Christchurch Northern Area Transport Investigation

The recommendations from NROSS subsequently informed the Christchurch Northern Area Transport Investigation (CNATI). This study identified a multi-modal package of transportation projects to address the land transport opportunities and issues of northern Christchurch. This included the full package of CNC projects, namely the NArt, QEII Dr 4-Laning, NAE and CSU. 2.2.3 Christchurch Roads of National Significance

The Christchurch RoNS is a package of new motorways and State highway improvements that have been identified by the Government as providing critical routes to the Christchurch International Airport, into the City Centre and to the Lyttelton Port. The Government objectives for the

Christchurch Northern Corridor are:

 Improving travel times and predictability of travel times from the north to the Port of Lyttelton and Christchurch CBD, thus enhancing national economic growth and productivity;

 Improving opportunities on the existing roading network for more sustainable land use and transport integration, for example public transport improvements and walking and cycling;

 Improving local access on the existing road network and social amenity thereby giving effect to broader urban development strategy outcomes;

 Improving safety through development of new infrastructure to current standards and reducing exposure at existing points of potential conflict; and

 Ensuring integration with elements of the Christchurch Northern Access Transport Investigation (CNATI) and protecting the long-term function of the state highway.

Although the CCC component of the CNC (the Project) is not a RoNS per se. it has been identified as necessary to realise the benefits of the NArt and QEII Dr 4-Laning. The State highway network also previously extended from Main North Road down Cranford Street. After completion of QEII Drive and the ring road around the eastern side of the City, this route became SH74 with Cranford Street being returned to CCC.

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

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Figure 2-1: Christchurch Northern Access Corridor RoNS Map

2.3 Traffic Models – What They Do

Traffic models are highly complex and complicated computer programs, which try to replicate the operation of a particular transport network.

At the same time, they are highly simplified representations of the transport network, which try to predict the behaviour and interactions of all the people travelling on that network. They are also dependent on the various input assumptions used, which can cover matters as diverse as, but not limited to:

 Demographics (forecasting how many people (of distinct ages and employment status’s) will live, work, shop, study, etc in each small geographic zone in the study area);

 How willing people are to travel at various times for different reasons (the “trip length distribution”);

 How people assess different routes and choose one (“optimal route choice based on generalised cost”);

 The capacity of different road types and layouts; and

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As a result of these simplifications traffic models will never be totally “right” – rather they indicate one potential future outcome for the modelled section of the transportation network. With different assumptions, different outcomes will occur. However, the modelling uses the most reasonable assumptions based on expert inputs and understanding of current land use and travel patterns. When considering this report and the assessment of effects of the NAE and CSU, it is important to bear in mind that the modelling results reported are most useful to indicate relative changes.

However, they do not indicate a precise outcome and expert interpretation of the range of outcomes that could occur is also necessary.

2.4 Assessment of Induced Traffic

Completion of the CNC is expected to result in an increase in travel along the corridor, as it becomes easier and faster for motorists, PT users and cyclists, than other alternatives. This has been reflected through the CTM demand modelling undertaken for this assessment, which explicitly accounts for the effects of induced travel.

Induced travel generally refers to “new” vehicle trips brought about by the provision of major roading schemes. However, very little of the induced travel is totally new trips, with the majority of it

comprising:

 Existing vehicle trips which change destination due to changes in how much easier the new destination is to get to compared to the old destination (changes in trip distribution);

 Existing vehicle trips which change the time of their trip, to take advantage of improved travel conditions at the time they really want to travel (but were willing to defer it previously) (changes in trip timing). These vehicle trips would still occur regardless of whether the roading project goes ahead or not; and

 Existing non-vehicle trips where the traveller changes to travel by road in a vehicle (changes in mode choice).

The primary modelling undertaken for this assessment accounts for induced traffic by using the variable matrix approach and is in accordance with NZTA’s Economic Evaluation Manual. This is currently considered to be best practice for studying the traffic effects of a major roading project. This means that the Do Minimum and Option networks have different demand patterns assigned to them, reflecting the changes in trip distribution, trip timing and mode share.

The other effect of new major roading schemes is the diversion of existing vehicle trips from their current route onto new routes made faster or cheaper as a result of the new scheme. These trips still travel by the same mode between the same origin and destination, but they may take different routes. This diversion will not result in all travellers actually using the new road, but rather allow for a ripple effect as diversion onto the new route frees up existing routes, which then provide better travel options for other trips further out.

2.5 Effects on Travel Patterns

Comparing the demand matrices from the CTM with and without the CNC projects in place allows the size and extent of the induced travel demand changes to be made (whilst ignoring the diversion effect as the matrices details the trips, and not their routes).

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

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However, the typical reaction is for more travel by the mode targeted, at the expense of other modes. For instance, a major new road would be expected to encourage people to start driving on the road (or adjacent roads improved by traffic transferring to the new road), when they may have previously travelled by other modes. It will also encourage people to live or work in areas where they can use the new road to travel to/from work or other activities.

2.5.1 Motor Vehicle Trips

Although there is hardly any change in the total number of trips being made in the region, there is a major change in the pattern of the forecast trips. In particular, this is between areas which are expected to benefit from the improved connectivity to be provided by the CNC.

For areas north of the Waimakariri River, there are expected to be an additional 3,700 vehicle trips a day across the River. In conjunction with this increased travel across the River, there is a

reduction in road travel entirely north and entirely south of the River, i.e. the net effect is to increase the number of trips across the Waimakariri River, whilst decreasing the trips travelling entirely within one side of the River or the other. A summary of the directional movements across the Waimakariri River is shown in Table 2-1. The relative change in the number of trips across and on either side of the river is also shown, highlighting the minimal impact on Christchurch to Christchurch trips.

Table 2-1: Changed Motorised Daily Travel Demand Patterns (Trips) – Cross Waimakariri River

Location

Destination

Absolute Change Relative Change Waimak Chch Total Waimak Chch Total

Origin

Waimakariri -2,075 2,100 25 -3% 5% 0%

Christchurch 1,600 -1,550 50 11% -0.14% 0%

Total -475 575 100 -1% 0% 0%

The effects of the changed travel patterns are expected to be felt around the CNC corridor south of the Waimakariri River as well, although again the overall effects are small. As noted in the TMR, the areas with the most significant changes in vehicle trips are Belfast, Mairehau and the

Christchurch CBD. All of these are on or at the end of the CNC corridor, so would be expected to benefit from improved mobility along the CNC corridor.

2.5.2 Passenger Transport Trips

The predicted effects of the CNC on passenger transport patronage are minimal. Overall, there is expected to be a slight drop in bus passenger numbers, with 20 fewer PT trips expected to be made per day.

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Table 2-2: Changed PT Daily Travel Demand Patterns (Trips) – Cross Waimakariri River

Location

Destination

Absolute Change Relative Change Waimak Chch Total Waimak Chch Total

Origin

Waimakariri 0 0 0 -1% 0% -0.1%

Christchurch 40 -60 -20 5% -0.11% 0%

Total 40 -60 -20 5% -0.11% 0%

A reduction in PT passenger numbers might seem counter-intuitive, given the improvements to bus priority along Main North Road and the provision of express services using the Northern Arterial. However, it is likely that the relative change in travel costs for PT users is much smaller than the change in costs for motorists3, leading to travel by PT becoming less attractive when compared to travelling by car.

However, given that this Project (and the full CNC) is a major roading project, a basically neutral outcome for PT usage represents an improvement relative to what would normally be expected. Faster bus travel times are predicted on Main North Road, as well for services using the CNC from the Belfast area as well as the Waimakariri District north of the River.

2.6 Strategic Modelling Outcomes

2.6.1 Modelling Differences a. Network Differences

The CTM is a four stage multi-modal model that provides a strategic representation of the multi modal travel based on land-use information from the census and forecast assumptions. The vehicle demand matrices output from the CTM are used as inputs for the CAST model.

The CAST model contains a more refined road network based on the proposed capital works programmes listed in the Long Term Plan (LTP). The CAST model used in the SAR was version 05 with the future design years of 2026 and 2041. The models included a critical design year of 2041 with the performance at year 2026 assessed.

With further refinement of the designs for both this Project and the NZTA components of the CNC, the networks used for the modelling assessments have differences. These are likely to result in differences between outcomes. The most significant differences between the two schemes are reported in Table 2-3.

3 The modelled cost for PT users includes access and egress times, waiting times (based on service

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Northern Arterial Extension and Cranford Street Upgrade Transport Assessment Addendum

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Table 2-3: Differences between SAR and TMR Traffic Modelling Networks

2041 SAR 2031 TMR

South facing ramps connecting the Northern Arterial to Belfast Road N Y

Number of lanes southbound on CNM across Waimakariri River 3 2

Reduction in number of general traffic lanes on MNR N Y

High quality PT corridor on MNR between Dickeys Rd and QEII Dr

(with full time, continuous bus lanes) N Y

Waimakariri to Christchurch via NArt bus services N Y

Number of lanes eastbound on slip-lane on QEII Dr past Innes Rd

roundabout 2 1

Westbound U-turn slot on QEII Drive between Main North Road and

Grimseys Road N Y

Signalised pedestrian crossing on Cranford Street at McFaddens

Road N Y

With the refinement of the components of the CNC, and a better understanding of its operation, there have also been changes to how elements of the CNC are modelled. The two most significant changes are:

 The merge from the NAE/Cranford Street roundabout with the southbound sliplane from the NAE to Cranford Street better represents the delay due to the merge, and how it is likely to affect traffic on both approaches.

 The signalised pedestrian crossing on Cranford Street at McFaddens Road. There is uncertainty around the demand for this signalised pedestrian crossing, so the 2031 TMR modelling has assessed the possible range of effects. This has been done by modelling the signals as not being used at all (by pedestrians) and modelling them being used so frequently that a pedestrian phase is called as frequently as possible (which is once every cycle, with the cycle time co-ordinated with the traffic signals at the Cranford Street/Innes Road intersection).

It is expected that these signals are likely to be used relatively sparingly, based on the potential catchment area for pedestrians (and cyclists), although this may be influenced by the enrolment area for the two preschools located close to this crossing. If used sparingly, the operation of the Project and wider network is likely to be closer to that modelled with no pedestrian calls4, which is what is reported through the rest of this report.

The underlying version of the CAST model used for this assessment has also been updated to reflect the latest post-earthquake transport recovery plans. The most significant differences included in the 2031 TMR assessments but not the 2026/41 SAR assessments are:

 Accessible City network within CBD

 Detailed representation of parking locations with CBD

4

With these pedestrian signals included, delays are expected to increase on Cranford Street by up to 1 minute during the morning peak hour, with consequential decreases in traffic volumes. On a daily basis, the greatest effect of these signals is a 2% drop in traffic volumes, although in the morning peak the decrease in

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 Updated CTM demographics used to derive the vehicular trip patterns5.

b. Demographic Differences

The use of different years for this assessment (2026 and 2041 in the SAR and 2031 for the TMR) means that the underlying demographics will differ. With differences in the number and location of households and jobs, the demands for travel will be different. However, it is expected that similar patterns will be apparent between the years, as they all represent broadly the same pattern of the logical and ordered (re)development of Canterbury envisaged through the Urban Development Strategy.

c. Summary

As a result of these differences, it is very likely that there will be differences in some of the

modelling results reported between the SAR and this TAA report, especially around predicted traffic volumes on specific road links. However, despite these differences, the general outcomes reported in the SAR and this report are similar, with similar conclusions being drawn about the operation and beneficial and adverse effects of the Project.

2.6.2 Road Network Outcomes

Reporting of the road network modelling outcomes has been split into two parts:

 Comparison of relevant significant differences and similarities in forecast traffic volumes with the Project in place between the 2041 SAR and 2031 TMR modelling; and

 Comparison between the Do Minimum and Option networks for 2031 to quantify the likely effects of the Project on the baseline transport environment.

The first part is discussed in the remainder of this section and the assessment of road network effects is reported in Section 3.

Average weekday daily traffic (AWDT) volumes from the 2026 and 2041 SAR modelling are shown in Table 2-4 along with the equivalent 2031 TMR modelling outputs. Figure 2-2 shows the

locations where these traffic volumes are compared.

5

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Northern A Table Locatio Norther Ramps Norther Main N Norther QEII Dr Cranfor Cranfor 1. Sour Figu Arterial Extension 2-4: Compa on rn Arterial (N s) rn Arterial (N orth Rd (Nor rn Arterial Ex rive (West of rd St (South rd St (South rce: Scheme As ure 2-2: Traf

and Cranford Stre

arison of Pre North of Belfa North of QEII rth of QEII D xtension f QEII Interch of Main Nort of NAE) sessment (SAR ffic Volume

eet Upgrade Tran

edicted Ave ast Rd Dr) r) hange) th Rd) R) Locations f nsport Assessmen rage Weekd 20261 33,800 33,800 28,900 48,200 2. S for Compari t Addendum

day Daily Tra

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From the forecast daily traffic volumes shown in Table 2-4, the following observations can be made:

 Traffic volumes at the southern end of the Northern Arterial (NArt) are expected to be higher in this 2031 modelling than was previously forecast, even for 2041. This shows the effects of the Belfast Road ramps, with up to 5,800 more vehicles per day (vpd) using the southern end of the Northern Arterial each day in 2031 than would use it in 2041 without these ramps. North of the ramps, less vehicles are likely to be on the Northern Arterial, in effect making room for the estimated 8,900 vpd travelling to and from Belfast.

 Main North Road between Belfast Road and QEII Drive is also expected to see a reduction in daily traffic volumes. This is likely due to the access to the NArt provided by the Belfast Road ramps, even with the 2031 TMR network model having reduced capacity on Main North Road to allow for the high-quality bus corridor and improved local amenity.

 South of QEII Drive, there is a significant switch between the operation of the Arterial to the north and the Extension to the south, with 4,000 vpd more predicted by the 2041 SAR modelling. This is a ‘swing’ of almost 10,000 vehicles on the NArt and NAE north and south of QEII Drive

respectively.

 Similar to the NAE, traffic volumes on QEII Drive between Main North Road and the Interchange are expected to be almost 6,500 vehicles higher in the 2041 SAR modelling than for the latest 2031 models.

 On Cranford Street north of the new junction with the NAE, the reverse is the case, with the 2031 TMR modelling predicting almost 2,000 more vehicles.

 On Cranford Street south of the NAE, the forecast traffic volumes in all three years are very similar (+600 vpd between 2026 and 2041, compared to +5,500 vpd on the NAE and +1,900 vpd on the NArt). Given that very different routings are used to head onto Cranford Street

southbound, this may indicate some type of capacity limit here or downstream. The general pattern of these differences is shown in Figure 2-3.

Figure 2-3: General Pattern of Daily Traffic Volume Differences – 2031 TMR vs 2041 SAR

Bar width represents approximately 2500 passenger car units per millimetre

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From the forecast daily traffic volumes reported in Table 2-4 and general pattern of differences shown Figure 2-3, it can be concluded that:

 There is a choice for southbound traffic between using the Main North Road and Cranford Street corridor, or travelling via QEII Drive and the NAE corridor. Travelling via Main North Road is shorter, but the posted speed limits are also slower. More vehicles are now expected to travel along the upper end of Cranford Street rather than using the NAE to get to the same point on Cranford Street. As shown in Table 2-4, the 2031 TMR modelling predicts almost 2,000 more vehicles a day on Cranford Street between Main North Road and the NAE compared to the 2041 SAR modelling. This is mostly due to what is considered to be more realistic behaviour at the NAE/Cranford Street junction in the 2031 TMR modelling6.

 It is noted that the predicted traffic volume on this upper end of Cranford Street with the full CNC in place is likely to be less than would be using this section of road in the 2031 Do Minimum. As reported in Table 3-3, a 30% drop in daily traffic volumes (-7,800 vpd) is expected compared to the Do Minimum case.

The very similar traffic volumes across all assessment years on the CSU section indicates that some form of capacity has probably been reached for this part of the corridor.

Figure 2-4: Option AM Peak Hour Volume Flow Differences – 2031 TMR vs 2041 SAR

Bar width represents approximately 250 passenger car units per millimetre

Green – INCREASE with 2031 TMR Blue – DECREASE with 2031 TMR

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In general, there is a decrease in traffic volumes on most of the road network in the AM peak hour between the 2041 SAR and 2031 TMR modelling. With an additional 10 years of traffic growth between these two models, this general decrease in peak hour traffic volumes is expected. The decrease in AM peak hour traffic volumes is especially noticeable on the western side of the city and around the Central City out to the Four Avenues. The assumed continuation of the initial post-earthquakes shift of employment and living away from the east in the CTM demographics would account for some of this difference.

With the 2031 TMR modelling also incorporating the latest Central City road network plans, there are also changes in traffic volumes on and within the Four Avenues i.e. the Central City. These Central City changes are due to changes in forecast land-use, car park locations and also the streets that can be used to get to and from the car parks.

Figure 2-5: Option PM Peak Hour Volume Flow Differences – 2031 TMR vs 2041 SAR

Bar width represents approximately 250 passenger car units per millimetre

Green – INCREASE with 2031 TMR Blue – DECREASE with 2031 TMR

The PM peak hour traffic flow differences shown in Figure 2-5 are very similar to what is shown for the AM peak hour. There is less traffic in the 2031 modelling on most of the road links on the western side of the city than is predicted for 2041. There is more traffic on the Western Corridor (SH1) past the airport.

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 Southbound on Cranford Street between Main North Road and NAE in both peak periods

 Westbound on QEII Drive between Marshland Road and Main North Road in the AM peak period.

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3

Assessment of Road Network Effects

As noted in Section 2, there has not yet been an assessment of the road transport effects of this Project against a “true” baseline situation. Consequently, it has not been possible to see the changes expected to result directly from this Project and the rest of the CNC, which are necessary to provide the full benefits for this and other corridors. This section reports the expected effects on the roading network, based on the 2031 TMR outcomes.

The effect of the Project on other transportation modes has already been assessed as part of the SAR and this assessment is generally unchanged. Where necessary, based on the outcomes reported in the TMR and in response to the RFI, additional commentary on the likely impact of the Project on other transport modes is provided in Section 4.

3.1 Road Classifications in Christchurch

3.1.1 Major Strategic Route Network

The CCC is in the process of adopting a replacement district plan, with a Road Classification System identified in the Transport chapter of that plan. This has been simplified from the version developed for the Christchurch Transport Strategic Plan (CTSP). The new classification considers both the ‘movement’ function of the road network as well as its ‘place’ function (being the type of community and environment surrounding sections of the road network). The proposed road classification map from the district plan is reproduced in Figure 3-1.

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The road classifications are based on a hierarchy, with strategic car and truck carrying routes at the top and more local access roads with lower volumes further down the hierarchy. The strategic road network is not explicitly defined as it is will be subject to change over time. It would be expected that major strategic routes would be comprised principally of Major and Minor Arterials, feeding into roads further down the hierarchy for completion of journeys.

With that understanding, the following points can be taken from the road classification shown in Figure 3-1:

 The CNC (including this Project) is included as a proposed Major Arterial within the road network, indicating a certain dependence on it going ahead.

 The other Major Arterial routes to the north are SH1 Christchurch Northern Motorway and Johns Road, along with SH74 Northern Arterial and QEII Drive.

 There are no Major Arterial routes on the northern side of the city connecting all the way through to the Major Arterial inner ring route around the Central City (the Four Avenues).

 At the southern end of the CNC, traffic is expected to dissipate or aggregate through the Minor Arterial network south of the CSU, initially using Cranford Street and Innes Road.

 Collector Roads, such as Rutland Street, Warrington Street, Durham Street, Madras Street and Barbados Street, are then expected to accommodate the spread of vehicles further downstream as they gain access to specific parts of the Central City.

 Rutland Street has been selected for the ‘Papanui Parallel’, one of CCC’s major cycleways routes. This will require the cycleway design to take account of Rutland Street’s classification as a Collector Road and the expectation that it will carry neighbourhood traffic to the arterial road network.

 By comparison, on the western, south-western, southern and south-eastern sides of the city strategic routes, comprising Major Arterials, provide connections all the way through to the Major Arterial inner ring route around the Central City (the Four Avenues).

The main PT corridors identified in the Canterbury Regional Public Transport Plan do not include the CSU section of Cranford Street, nor Cranford Street or Innes Road to the south of the CSU. However Main North Road, from north of Belfast through to Papanui Road, is part of the core PT network. CNATI identified the potential for upgrading this PT corridor as part of a multi-modal transport solution for the north of Christchurch, with the completion of the full CNC as a pre-requisite. The removal of vehicular traffic from this corridor with the opening of the full CNC will provide the opportunity to implement a high quality PT corridor on this route. This should speed up bus services travelling along this corridor. Additionally, the bus priority measures should remove some of the major sources of service time variability along the corridor. These improvements will provide a faster and more reliable service for passengers, making PT more attractive as a realistic alternative to travelling by car.

3.1.2 Major Strategic Routes Characteristics

The existing major strategic routes share a few common characteristics:

 Either multi-lane, median divided roads (both motorway/expressway standard and urban type) or higher speed two lane roads (such as SH74 Anzac Drive and QEII Drive currently)

 Speed limits are generally higher

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3.2 Effects on Road Network

The effects of the Project have already been assessed in the SAR against a baseline which includes the NZTA components of the CNC (the Northern Arterial and QEII Dr 4-laning). This information is supplemented by what is reported here, which assesses effects against a transport network without any of the CNC components.

3.2.1 Average Weekday Daily Traffic Volumes

A comparison has been made between the expected daily traffic volumes on the road network with and without the full CNC in place. The largest of these daily differences are shown graphically in Figure 3-2, with tabled volumes reported later in this section. As noted earlier, no difference is shown where a road link is not in both of the networks, so neither the NAE nor the NArt are highlighted as having a difference in daily traffic volumes.

Figure 3-2: Average Weekday Daily Traffic Volume Differences with CNC – 2031

Bar width represents approximately 2,500 passenger car units per millimetre

Green – INCREASE with CNC Blue – DECREASE with CNC

Several conclusions can be drawn from the change in traffic patterns shown in Figure 3-2:

 Across the Waimakariri River, there is both an increase in total traffic volumes (the induced traffic effects reported in Section 2.5.1) and a switch from Main North Road on the old Waimakariri River Bridge to the Northern Motorway Bridge.

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 The decrease in traffic volumes on north-south routes is noticeable to a lesser extent on the parallel routes further out (West Belfast Bypass, SH1 western corridor down to Memorial Avenue, Gardiners Road and Burwood Road).

 The south facing ramps at Belfast Road attract traffic from both north and west of the CNC alignment, via Guthries Road and Belfast Road respectively.

 With this access to the Belfast Road ramps, traffic volumes on both Guthries Road and Belfast Road are expected to increase.

 With the exception of Belfast Road, the other roads within the Belfast area are likely to

experience very little change in traffic volumes. This indicates that drivers travelling to and from this area are likely to continue travelling via Main North Road. The overall drop in traffic volumes on Main North Road can be largely attributed to trips from north of the Waimakariri River

rerouting to use the CNC.

 An increase in the volume of traffic using the widened QEII Drive both east and west of the QEII Interchange is expected.

 Cranford Street immediately below the NAE junction is predicted to experience an increase in the number of vehicles using it.

 South of Innes Road, especially past Warrington Street, the increased traffic volumes dissipate as vehicles spread across the dense network of Minor Arterial and Collector Roads to the north of the CBD. Consequently, the size of the increase seen on the CSU section is not repeated on other roads further south towards the Central City, including the lower section of Cranford Street.

 With drivers drawn from the parallel north-south routes, there is also a decrease in traffic volumes at the city end of these parallel routes, including on the southern end of Marshland Road, Briggs Road, Westminster Street, Blighs Road and Memorial Avenue.

More detailed reporting on the anticipated differences in traffic volumes and patterns as a result of this Project (as part of the full CNC) is provided below.

a. Daily Traffic Volumes – On Project Corridor

The average weekday daily traffic (AWDT) volumes along the immediate Project corridor are shown in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1: Forecast AWDT (Vehicles) – Project Corridor – 2031

Road Location DM Opt Diff % Diff

NAE South of QEII Dr N/A 30,400 +30,400 N/A

Cranford St South of NAE 27,200 47,400 +20,200 +74%

North of Innes Rd 22,200 40,400 +18,200 +82%

From Table 3-1, it can be seen that a large increase in daily traffic volumes is expected on the upgraded section of Cranford Street. It can also be observed that not all of this traffic is totally new to this route, with approximately 10,000 vehicles a day rerouting to use the NAE to get onto

Cranford Street, bypassing the top section of Cranford Street and Main North Road.

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Traffic volumes across the screenlines to the north of the Project area (Waimakariri River and north of QEII Drive) are reported in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2: Forecast AWDT (Vehicles) – North of Project – 2031

Screenline Road DM Opt Diff % Diff

Waimakariri River CNM 62,400 67,000 +4,600 7% MNR 11,100 10,100 -1,000 -9% TOTAL 73,500 77,100 +3,600 5% North of QEII Dr SH1 Johns Rd 36,700 33,900 -2,800 -8% Gardiners Rd 10,600 8,400 -2,200 -21% Main North Rd 38,600 22,500 -16,100 -42% Grimseys Rd 4,500 4,200 -300 -7%

Northern Arterial N/A 41,500 +41,500 N/A

Hills Rd 4,100 5,000 +900 22%

Marshland Rd 34,800 25,600 -9,200 -27%

Burwood Rd 7,400 5,800 -1,600 -22%

TOTAL 136,700 146,900 +10,200 7%

Based on the daily traffic volumes reported in Table 3-2, the following observations can be made about the effects of the full CNC (north of the Project components):

 It is expected that there will be only a small increase in the number of vehicles crossing the Waimakariri River, increasing by just under 4,000 vehicles per day (a 5% increase on what would be expected without the CNC in place). It is likely that the capacity constraint imposed by keeping the two lanes southbound on the bridge across the River is restraining the increase in cross river trips

 All of this increase across the Waimakariri is on the Christchurch Northern Motorway (CNM), and also includes about 1,000 vehicles switching across from the old Waimakariri River bridge to a more attractive route. This indicates that this additional traffic is likely to be heading for the Northern Arterial, as the CNC cannot be easily accessed from Main North Road and the old Waimakariri River bridge

 At the screenline immediately north of QEII Drive (just north of this Project) it is easy to see the effect of the CNC. Traffic volumes on all the major north-south parallel routes to the CNC are expected to drop, with decreases of up to 16,100 vpd predicted.

 Moving further away from Main North Road and Marshland Road across this screenline, the predicted drop in north-south traffic volumes with the CNC is less, but is still likely to have a positive impact, especially on roads that travel through residential areas (such as Gardiners Road and Burwood Road).

 The total daily volume of traffic across this screenline is expected to increase by just 10,000 vpd (up 7% on the situation without the CNC). Some of this increase will be induced traffic with the remainder comprising vehicles that double back on their journeys to get to or from the CNC (and the NArt in particular). For instance, prior to the CNC, travelling between Redwood and Belfast would involve travelling north along Main North Road. With the CNC, this trip can also be made by firstly travelling south to QEII Drive, and then north along the NArt. Whilst faster, this latter rerouting would involve two crossings of this screenline rather than just one

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from 4,100 vpd up to approximately 5,000 vpd. This is considered to be well within the typical capacity of this type of road.

c. Daily Traffic Volumes – Level with Project

Expected traffic volumes crossing a screenline running through the NAE section of the Project are shown in Table 3-3 below.

Table 3-3: Forecast AWDT (Vehicles) – Level with Project – 2031

Road Location DM Opt Diff % Diff

SH1 Johns Rd South of Sawyers Arms Rd 39,100 37,600 -1,500 -4%

Gardiners Rd South of Sawyers Arms Rd 6,000 4,400 -1,500 -26%

Highsted Rd South of Sawyers Arms Rd 4,900 4,300 -600 -13%

Greers Rd South of Sawyers Arms

Rd/Northcote Rd 20,000 19,900 -200 -1%

Main North Rd South of Cranford St 27,500 27,000 -400 -2%

Cranford St South of Main North Rd 26,400 18,600 -7,800 -30%

NAE South of QEII Dr N/A 30,400 +30,400 N/A

Philpotts Rd South of QEII Dr 4,400 3,000 -1,400 -33%

Innes Rd South of QEII Dr 19,300 17,800 -1,400 -7%

Marshland Rd South of QEII Dr 27,500 21,400 -6,100 -22%

TOTAL 175,000 184,400 +9,400 +5%

Based on the daily traffic volumes reported in Table 3-3, the following observations can be made about the effects of the Project as part of the full CNC:

 Similar to the expected result at the screenline immediately north of QEII Drive, traffic volumes on all the major north-south parallel routes level with the NAE are expected to drop or remain unchanged.

 The only road with an increase is the new NAE, which is expected to be used by more than 30,000 vpd.

 The two roads with the largest expected decreases are Cranford Street between the NAE and Main North Road, and Marshland Road. In both cases these decreases are a result of drivers rerouting onto the NArt and NAE.

 Moving further away from Cranford Street and Marshland Road across this screenline, the predicted drop in north-south traffic volumes with this Project in place is less. With reductions in daily traffic volumes of up to 33% on some of these routes, the Project is likely to have some positive impact on the operation of these roads and the amenity of the neighbourhoods they travel through (especially where the roads travel through residential areas such as Philpotts Road and the upper end of Cranford Street).

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3.2.2 Peak Period Traffic Volumes

As well as considering daily traffic volumes, it is necessary to look at how concentrated they are likely to be in the typical weekday morning and evening peak periods. This will give an indication of how many vehicles are expected to be on the roads at the busiest times of the day.

For the CNC, the main flow of traffic is southwards in the morning, and northwards in the evening. For east-west routes in the Project area (such as QEII Drive and Innes Road), there does not appear to be a predominant directional flow, as these routes act as radial routes between the main corridors into and out of the City.

a. Morning Peak Hour – Do Minimum Network

The forecast AM peak hour traffic flows in the immediate vicinity of the Project in the 2031 Do Minimum network (i.e. without any of the CNC components) are shown in Figure 3-4.

Figure 3-4: 2031 Do Minimum Morning Peak Hour Traffic Flows [8:00-9:00]

Bar width represents approximately 500 passenger car units per millimetre

From this plot of traffic volumes, it is possible to see the main routes being used to travel through and within this part of northern Christchurch in the morning peak hour:

 Main North Road and Marshland Road are the main routes for traffic heading southwards from the north of Christchurch, as well as being used by a lower number of northbound vehicles.

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 Innes Road also provides an east-west route across this part of the city, although with a lower traffic volume than is predicted for QEII Drive.

 South of QEII Drive traffic is expected to use a variety of routes to head towards Bealey Avenue and the Central City. These include Papanui Road, Cranford Street, Hills Road, Briggs Road and Marshland Road.

 Even with local traffic from the Papanui, Mairehau and St Albans joining the traffic from further north, the volume of traffic on each of these roads is lower than on the Major Arterials north of QEII Drive (Main North Road and Marshland Road).

 Traffic is expected to dissipate further approaching Bealey Avenue, using the increasing number of north-south routes to access Bealey Avenue and the Central City. The north-south routes used immediately north of Bealey Avenue include Papanui Road, Springfield Road/Durham Street, Colombo Street, Sherbourne Street, Madras Street, Barbadoes Street and Hills Road. b. Morning Peak Hour – Option Network

Similarly to the Do Minimum network, Figure 3-5 shows the forecast morning peak hour traffic flows from the 2031 Option network.

Figure 3-5: 2031 Option Morning Peak Hour Traffic Flows [8:00-9:00]

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The traffic pattern shown in Figure 3-5 is similar to that expected for the Do Minimum network, with some differences brought about by the new route provided by the full CNC (including the Project):

 North of QEII Drive the NArt has become the predominant route for southbound traffic (as well as for vehicles heading north).

 The traffic volumes on the other major north-south routes are expected to be lower, with the southbound peak hour volume on Main North Road down almost 50%, and on Marshland Road dropping by just over 25%.

 More traffic is expected on the widened QEII Drive in both directions, using it to travel between north-south routes (including the NArt) and around the city.

 South of QEII Drive, the NAE and CSU become the predominant route used to head towards Bealey Avenue and the Central City.

 From the end of the Project at Innes Road through to Bealey Avenue and the Central City, similar traffic patterns to the Do Minimum are evident, with traffic spreading out to use Papanui Road, Cranford Street, Hills Road, Briggs Road and Marshland Road. Large changes in traffic volumes on these roads, and those closer in towards Bealey Avenue, are not expected. c. Morning Peak Hour – Comparison between Do Minimum and Option Networks

Figure 3-6 below shows the expected difference in morning peak hour traffic volumes between the Do Minimum and Option networks. No difference in traffic volumes are shown on new road links, such as the NAE and NArt.

These outcomes are consistent with those reported from the SAR modelling, albeit with some differences on the eastern end of QEII Drive. The SAR modelling included the NArt and QEII Dr 4-Laning in its Do Minimum for economic comparison purposes.

The major expected differences between the Do Minimum and Option network morning peak hour traffic flows are very similar to the average daily traffic differences shown in Figure 3-2:

 Peak direction traffic volumes are expected to drop on the existing major north-south routes (Main North Road and Marshland Road). A similar though smaller drop is expected on these two roads in the counter peak direction (northbound).

 Traffic volumes are expected to increase on QEII Drive west of the Interchange with the NArt. This increase is more noticeable for westbound traffic, with vehicles taking advantage of the faster travel times on the NArt (compared to Main North Road), before heading westwards towards Papanui Road and Northcote Road to reach their final destinations. Eastbound traffic volumes are also expected to increase, with vehicles heading towards the City via Grimseys Road, QEII Drive, NAE and CSU rather than their pre-CNC route down Main North Road and Cranford Street.

 East of the NArt interchange, westbound traffic volumes on the widened QEII Drive are expected to increase as drivers use the interchange to gain access to the NArt (to head north) or NAE (to head south bypassing Innes Road).

 Southbound traffic volumes on Philpotts Road are expected to drop, due to both the restriction on right turns into Philpotts Road from QEII Drive and the better level of service provided by the NAE and CSU.

 Conversely, traffic volumes heading north on Philpotts Road are expected to increase, using this as a means to access the NArt via the QEII Interchange.

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Figure 3-6: 2031 Morning Peak Hour Traffic Flows [8:00-9:00] – Comparison between Do Minimum and Option Networks

Bar width represents approximately 250 passenger car units per millimetre

Green – INCREASE with CNC Blue – DECREASE with CNC

 Cranford Street immediately below the NAE junction is predicted to experience an increase in the number of vehicles using it.

 South of Innes Road, especially past Warrington Street, the increased traffic volumes dissipate as vehicles spread across the dense network of Minor Arterial and Collector Roads to the north of the CBD. Consequently, the size of the increase seen on the CSU section is not repeated on other roads further south towards the Central City, including the lower section of Cranford Street.

 With drivers drawn from the parallel north-south routes, there is also a decrease in traffic volumes at the city end of these parallel routes, including on the southern end of Marshland Road, Briggs Road, Westminster Street, Blighs Road and Memorial Avenue.

Table 3-4 reports the expected number of vehicles heading south in the morning peak hour along the Project corridor.

Table 3-4: Forecast Morning Peak Hour Traffic Volumes (SBD AM) – Project Corridor – 2031

Road Location

Lanes Peak Hour Traffic

DM Opt DM Opt Diff % Diff

NAE South of QEII Dr 0 2 N/A 2,100 +2,100

Cranford St South of NAE 1 2 1,390 2,700 +1,310 +94%

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These morning peak hour traffic volumes reported in Table 3-4 show an increase in the volume of traffic, more than doubling at the southern end of the CSU section of Cranford Street, where the number of lanes will also be doubled as part of this Project. It is likely that this increase is driven in large part by the improved performance of the Cranford Street/Innes Road intersection for

southbound traffic. This is very similar to the modelling outcomes reported in the SAR.

Without the CSU or other improvements, this intersection would continue to operate a simple two-phase operation, which has significant disadvantages for turning traffic and can cause blockages of through traffic when it is restricted to a single lane. With the CSU, additional lanes would be available, but just as importantly the signals would be upgraded allowing for green arrow turns (which generally makes turning right at signalised intersections safer and more efficient).

The CAST model predicts that in the AM peak hour the average delay for the Option network on the northern approach to this intersection will be approximately 32 seconds per vehicle. Even with less than half as many vehicles in the Do Minimum, the average delay is expected to be higher at 35 seconds per vehicle. This better performance predicted by the strategic CAST model of the Cranford Street/Innes Road intersection with the Project (and full CNC in place) is confirmed with a more detailed operational analysis later in this report (Section 3.3.2).

d. Evening Peak Hour – Do Minimum Network

Turning to the other end of the day, Figure 3-7 shows the predicted evening peak hour traffic flows in the Do Minimum network.

Figure 3-7: 2031 Do Minimum Evening Peak Hour Traffic Volume [16:30-17:30]

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This plot of evening peak hour traffic volumes shows a similar pattern to that seen in the morning peak hour (shown in Figure 3-4 above), although with the predominant movement heading northwards:

 Traffic is expected to aggregate from a number of roads as it heads north from Bealey Avenue and the Central City, coming together on Papanui Road, Cranford Street, Innes Road and Marshland Road.

 QEII Drive still provides a popular route for traffic travelling radially around the city, connecting the north-south routes of Main North Road, Marshland Road and further afield, as well as receiving traffic from the upper end of Innes Road.

 North of QEII Drive, traffic aggregates further to use Main North Road and Marshland Road as the main routes to head northwards to the northern suburbs of Christchurch or across the Waimakariri River.

 There is evidence of a tidal pattern on the Minor and Major Arterials (such as Cranford Street and Main North Road), with more northbound than southbound traffic noticeable on the network plot. On the lower hierarchy roads, such as Rutland Street (a Collector Road), traffic volumes in both directions appear more balanced.

e. Evening Peak Hour – Option Network

Figure 3-8 shows the forecast evening peak hour traffic flows in the Option network. Figure 3-8: 2031 Option Evening Peak Hour Traffic Flows [16:30-17:30]

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This also shows a similar pattern, but reversed peak direction, to that seen in the Option network in the morning peak hour (shown in Figure 3-5). The following additional points can be made about the expected operation of the road network with the full CNC (including the Project) in place:

 Traffic is still expected to aggregate from a number of roads as it heads north from Bealey Avenue and the Central City, coming together primarily on Cranford Street, as well as using Papanui Road, Innes Road and Marshland Road.

 The NAE and CSU become the predominant route used to head north away from Bealey Avenue and the Central City, with lower volumes expected on the other north-south routes (such as Papanui Road, the upper end of Cranford Street, Hills Road and Marshland Road.

 The widened QEII Drive is expected to remain well used in both directions, providing an east-west link between the north-south routes out of Christchurch.

 North of QEII Drive the NArt is the predominant route for northbound and southbound traffic.

 The traffic volumes on the other major north-south routes are expected to be lower, with the northbound peak hour volume on Main North Road down by 35% and on Marshland Road dropping by just over 10%.

f. Evening Peak Hour – Comparison between Do Minimum and Option Networks

Figure 3-9 shows the expected difference in evening peak hour traffic volumes between the Do Minimum and Option networks.

Figure 3-9: 2031 Evening Peak Hour Traffic Flows [16:30-17:30] – Comparison between Do Minimum and Option Networks

Bar width represents approximately 250 passenger car units per millimetre

References

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Second, Blue Shield also concedes that it gave Harlick inconsistent information about why it would not pay for her treatment at Castlewood. But Blue Shield argues that its mis-

A social welfare function characterizing competitive equilibria of incomplete …nancial markets.. Mario Tirelli and Sergio Turner y

No significant differences existed in terms of mental status and symptoms between ziprasidone and standard antipsychotics (chlorpromazine and haloperidol), however a systematic