Brian.Nowak@morganstanley.com
Benjamin.Swinburne@morganstanley.com
Michael.Costantini@morganstanley.com
Owen.Hyde@morganstanley.com
Kevin.Liu@morganstanley.com MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC
Brian Nowak, CFA
+1 212 761-3365
Benjamin Swinburne, CFA
+1 212 761-7527
Michael Costantini
+1 212 296-8248Owen Hyde
+1 212 761-7036Kevin Liu
+1 212 296-8180( GOOGL.O, GOOGL US )
Internet / United States of America Stock Rating
Stock Rating OverweightOverweight
Industry View
Industry View AttractiveAttractive
Price target
Price target $820.00$820.00
Shr price, close (Sep 23, 2015) $653.29
Mkt cap, curr (mm) $453,926 52-Week Range $713.33-490.91
Industry View
Attractive
Stock Rating
Overweight
Price Target
$820.00
September 24, 2015
There's an App for that...the Browser
Counter to the GOOGL "app bear case" we find mobile browser
traffic is 2X larger than app traffic, growing 1.2X faster. Traffic in 3 of
GOOGL's key categories – Retail, Finance, Travel – over-indexes
toward browser, speaking to GOOGL's entrenched position to
continue driving the mobile ad market.
U.S. Mobile Browser Traffic 2X Larger than App Traffic, Growing 1.2X
Faster:
Despite the popularity of mobile apps (an est. 76bn downloaded in
'14),
U.S. mobile browser audiences are 2X larger than app audiences
across the top 50 mobile web properties and have grown 1.2X faster over the
past 3 years. Only 12 of the top 50 U.S. mobile sites - including YouTube,
Instagram, Snapchat, and Pinterest- have larger app audiences.
GOOGL and FB Apps Appear Well Positioned to Continue to Capture
More Engagement and Ad Dollars
: These app-dominated sites are category
winners. 4 of the 12 leading apps are GOOGL properties – YouTube, Google
Search, Maps and Gmail – which speaks to GOOGL's entrenched position to
continue to monetize its app user base through the mobile transition. FB's
Instagram is also included. The only reason FB itself isn't on the list of 12 is
because of its strong mobile browser growth, as FB mobile app
and
browser
audiences are now larger than any other mobile property, which speaks to its
leadership in both mobile use cases.
Google "App Disintermediation" Bear Case Generally Not Playing Out:
Our findings also run counter to the common GOOGL "app disintermediation"
bear case that people will migrate to mobile apps rather than mobile
search/browser. We find that mobile traffic in 3 of Google's biggest search
spend categories – Retail, Finance and Travel – over-indexes toward browsers,
and that
~90% of the companies analyzed in these 3 categories are
driving over 50% of their mobile traffic growth from browsers.
This
speaks to the structural advantage of GOOGL's search product (still at the top
of the mobile consumer funnel), and the need for companies to continue to
spend on GOOGL paid search to grow.
commerce. That said,
AMZN and WMT stand out among the group, as
they are now driving ~60% of their mobile user growth through apps.
This is a likely positive for AMZN and WMT, as over time larger app audiences
will likely lead to lower customer acquisition costs, stickier customer bases and
a greater share of wallet. On the flip side, these retailers' size and marketplace
structure does make this a potential threat to be monitored for GOOGL.
Online Travel Agency (OTAs) Mobile Browser Audiences are 4.5X Larger,
and 6 of the 9 Largest Hotels Still Don't Have App Audiences Large
Enough to be Measured:
OTA mobile browser audiences are ~4.5X larger
than app user bases. This speaks to the browser-based travel research
behavior that is migrating from desktop to mobile. Further, the traffic overlap
between these sites speaks to how consumers often shop among the OTAs ,
which we believe further holds back OTA-specific app adoption. Mobile traffic
to the large hotel chains is even more browser based, as 67% of the largest
hotel chains don’t have mobile app audiences large enough to be measured.
Here again, we see GOOGL's search at the top of the funnel in mobile
travel...well positioned to continue to grow its share of ad budgets.
Price Target $820
Our $820 price target is based on our discounted cash flow
valuation and implies 19.4x 2017e core Google non-GAAP EPS of
$50.15. We then back out the discounted value of the Alphabet
investment losses to arrive at our $820 target. We use a 9.7%
WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate (2.5% previously).
Bull
$980
20.8X 2017e bull case Core
EPS of $52.96, Less the PV of
the Alphabet Investment
Losses
Improved core Google revenue disclosure,
better-than-expected expense discipline and share repurchases lead to
multiple expansion and higher earnings power.
Mobile
monetization proves highly incremental to core search revenue
growth and search takes more share of global budgets. YouTube
becomes an even bigger contributor to top-line growth, and, more
importantly, operates at a higher margin than in our base case.
Base
$820
19.4X 2017e base case Core
EPS of $50.15, Less the PV of
the Alphabet Investment
Losses.
Status quo on core Google core revenue disclosure and
capital allocation.
Google maintains share in global search
advertising, but mature US and UK markets weigh on growth.
Assumes midteens search revenue growth through 2017, as
mobile device proliferation leads to search advertising taking share
of global ad budgets. However, with ~50% of global search
revenue driven by more mature search markets in the US and UK,
we see organic growth slowing. We forecast YouTube growing at a
CAGR of ~45% over the next 3 years, though the segment is a
headwind to incremental margins (high content expense costs).
Investment Thesis
Investment Thesis
Increased transparency from the creation of
Alphabet Inc. is a positive step to better
understanding core Google profitability and
loss-generating investment projects.
Improved and more detailed disclosure lead to
multiple expansion with other internet companies
(up to 13-18% company-wide multiple expansion
at Expedia and Amazon), and we see a similar
outcome for Google as investors gain a clearer
picture of core Google's strong earnings power.
Google Website's growth is likely to surprise to the
upside, driven in large part by better than
expected YouTube results. We now see YouTube
growing at a 45% forward CAGR, driving 41% of
total Google Websites growth, as Google Websites
grows at an 18% forward CAGR the next 3 years.
Our $820 price target is based on 19.4x 2017e
core Google non-GAAP EPS of $50.15 less the PV
of the Alphabet investment losses.
Key Value Drivers
Key Value Drivers
Search advertising spend continues to gain share
of global advertising budgets, including in the US
and UK where organic growth appears to be
slowing.
Mobile search advertising proves incremental to
organic search spend.
Investments in video content driving longer-term
monetization at YouTube.
Moderation of expense growth.
Risks to Our Price Target
Risks to Our Price Target
Over 90% of the company’s net advertising
revenue comes from Search. While we believe
Search will continue to take share of global ad
budgets and Google will retain its dominant share,
growth in US and UK markets (~50% of Google
search revenue) has slowed.
Improved disclosure around the Google Inc. and
Other Alphabet segments may not decrease the
overall investment activity of the business.
Bear
$605
16.7X 2017e bear case Core
No change on core Google revenue disclosure and capital
allocation and global ad growth slows...investment spend
Risk Reward
Risk Reward
There's an App for that...the Browser
There's an App for that...the Browser
Mobile Browser Traffic is 2X Bigger and Growing 1.2x Faster than App Traffic
U.S. mobile is still largely a browser based world as mobile browser audiences are ~2X larger than app
audiences across the top 50 U.S. mobile web properties ( see
Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1
). As shown, the median browser audience
(across the top 50 U.S. mobile apps as of July 2015) has grown at 61% per year, while app audiences have
grown at an average of 51% per year. Said another way,
mobile browser audiences have grown 1.2x faster
than mobile app audiences off of a 1.8x larger base
.
Please see the
Appendix
Appendix
for full detail on the top 50 mobile browser and mobile app audiences.
Note that
this over-indexing toward browsers is the opposite of what most investors we speak with
expect
, who often ask about the "app-lification" of consumer behavior as we transition from desktop to mobile.
We attribute this difference to the most commonly cited industry report on app and browser behavior published
by Flurry, which asserts that nearly 90% of
time spent
on mobile (across iOS and Android devices) occurs in app.
But Flurry's breakdown of how people are spending their time on mobile matters, as we see that the app time
spent data is skewed upward by gaming (32% of time) and social (a total of 29% of time between Facebook at
17%, Other messaging at 10% and Twitter at 2%).
Exhibit 1:
Exhibit 1:
For the top 50 mobile web properties browser audiences are 2X larger than mobile app audiences,
growing 1.2x faster
12 Mobile Properties with Larger App Audiences...Positioned to be Category Winners and Take a
Larger Share of Ad Dollars
In all, only 12 of the top 50 U.S. mobile properties (24%) have larger mobile app audiences than mobile browser
audiences (see
Exhibit 3
Exhibit 3
). There are multiple interesting findings here.
First,
50% (6 of 12) of
these app-traffic
dominated properties are "daily habits
"
like email (Gmail and Yahoo Mail), checking the weather (Weather
Channel), monitoring stock performance (Yahoo Finance), looking up maps/directions (Google Maps) and
searching online (Google Search). Of the other 50% , 3 are "social sharing" sites (Snapchat, Instagram, Pinterest)
and 3 are streaming media sites (Pandora, Netflix, YouTube)...which you could argue are also daily habits for
many Americans.
Second,
the app user bases of the leading ad "platforms" (like YouTube, Pandora) and social networks (like
Instagram, Snapchat and Pinterest) also stand out. This speaks to
these players' advantaged app position to
continue to garner a larger share of mobile time spent and engagement, which can be used to
improve their ad offerings and targeting and grow their overall share of advertiser budget
s
. In our
view, this is also likely to lead to a higher share of mobile display ad dollars moving into "walled garden"
ecosystems, rather than toward the mobile web. While we're generally not concerned about the current iOS ad
blocker trends (as we question whether consumers will adopt them) it is notable that these companies with
large app user bases, in our view, are at an lower risk of losing advertising revenue to mobile ad blocking
technology.
Exhibit 2:
Exhibit 2:
Gaming and social skew the Flurry time spent data toward apps
So u rce : F lu rry An a lytics, M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
Third
,
4 of these 12
app-dominated mobile properties
are Google-based offerings
– Gmail, Google Maps,
Google Search and YouTube – which speaks to the breadth of the Android ecosystem and Google's strong and
entrenched position within users' mobile activity.
Facebook more browser-centric, but app traffic strong too
Note that Facebook, the leading U.S. internet property in both mobile browser and app audience size (see
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 4
), is not shown in the exhibit above because of its strong mobile browser growth which surpassed its
mobile app audience last year. This in our view speaks to Facebook's leadership in both consumer mobile use
cases.
Exhibit 3:
Exhibit 3:
Only these 12 U.S. mobile properties (of the top 50) have more mobile app traffic than mobile
browser traffic
Addressing the Google "App-lification" Bear Case
We are often asked about the Google mobile "app-lification" risk – consumers migrating to mobile apps rather
than mobile web browsers and, in effect, bypassing Google search. Our analysis shows that
G
oogle search is
still positioned to win on mobile as U.S. mobile traffic in 3 of the top search spend categories
– Retail,
Finance/Insurance, and Travel, which in aggregate make up an estimated 38% of the total U.S. search market –
materially over-indexes toward browsers .
In addition, we find that
~90% of the companies analyzed in these 3
categories are driving over 50% of their mobile traffic growth
from browsers
(See
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 6
)
.
This is bullish for Google as it illustrates
how the company, in our view, will continue to monetize user traffic as
it transitions from desktop to mobile. We now turn to analyzing mobile
consumer behavior in each category in more detail.
Exhibit 4:
Exhibit 4:
Facebook's U.S. browser site now gets more traffic than its mobile app, and both its app and
browser audiences are larger than any other U.S. mobile property
So u rce : C o msco re D a ta , M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
Exhibit 5:
Exhibit 5:
We analyzed mobile
audiences in 3 of the top U.S.
search ad spending verticals
which make up ~38% of U.S.
search spend
So u rce : Ka n ta r d a ta , M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
Exhibit 6:
Exhibit 6:
~90% of the companies in the Travel, Finance/Insurance, and Retail categories are driving 50%+ of
their mobile traffic growth from browsers
Retail: 30% of the Top 30 Retailers Don't Have App User Bases Large
Retail: 30% of the Top 30 Retailers Don't Have App User Bases Large
Enough to be Measured
Enough to be Measured
We start with Retail (an estimated 18% of the total U.S. search market) where mobile browser traffic is still very
important. Indeed, 9 of the 30 retailers (30%) in our sample – the 25 largest traditional retailers and 5
eCommerce pureplays – still don’t have mobile app audiences that are large enough to be measured (See
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 7
).
In addition,
of the 21 retailers that have app user bases, the median mobile browser audience is still
6.1x larger than the mobile app audience
(ranging from 1.7X larger at Amazon and eBay to 61x at Staples).
Said another way, mobile browser audiences are still ~6x larger even among the most successful mobile
Exhibit 7:
Exhibit 7:
The retailer median mobile browser audience is 6X larger than the median mobile app audience
So u rce : C o msco re D a ta , M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
retailers. Given the importance of traffic to retailers (foot traffic or mobile eyeballs), this in our view speaks to
the importance for retailers to continue to spend on Google mobile paid search for traffic.
We attribute this to the fact that changing consumer behavior is difficult and takes time...and years of desktop
based shopping has (largely) conditioned shoppers to start their e-commerce experience and price comparing in
browsers and on Google. In addition, Google text search ads and product listing ads present traditional retailers
an opportunity to improve their mobile traffic reach vs. Amazon and grow their share of e-commerce dollars.
These data speak to Google's entrenched position to continue to monetize the retail category as it
transitions to mobile.
The retail mobile user data also highlights the strength of the "long-tail" to Google, as 79% of the next 14 largest
retailers don't have app audiences large enough to be measured (see
Exhibit 8
Exhibit 8
) and therefore are more
dependent on browsers and Google traffic to grow.
Don't Forget About Google's Deep Linking Efforts Either
We acknowledge that while mobile browser traffic is larger than mobile app traffic, a higher percentage of
transactions may occur in mobile apps. But Google has a strategy to address this too by working to integrate its
search product across the mobile browser and app environments through app indexing and deep linking. Via
app indexing and deep linking, mobile users who have an app installed will be able to open content within the
app directly from mobile browser search results (for example, a product search on mobile browser may show a
link directly into the eBay app). This allows Google to display search results in a mobile web environment that
Exhibit 8:
Exhibit 8:
The mobile app user bases for 11 of the 14 (79%) next largest Retail sites are not large enough to
be measured
Amazon and Walmart Showing Some App Success
Only two retailers – Amazon and Walmart (covered by Simeon Gutman)– drove over 50% of their mobile traffic
growth from
app users
. To us, this is
positive for these two players
as over time we believe larger app
audiences can lead to lower long-term customer acquisition costs, stickier customer bases, and a greater share
of consumer wallets.
In addition,
given these two players’ size and marketplace structure, this is a potential risk for Google
that should be monitored.
It is also, in our view, part of the reason we continue to see Google roll out new
and improved shopping offerings like Google product listing ads, Google Shopping (fka Froogle), Google
Express, and "Purchases on Google" (essentially, a Buy Button on mobile), as Google hopes to bring eCommerce
transactions into its ecosystem to more directly link transactions to retailers’ search ad spending.
Exhibit 9:
Exhibit 9:
93% of the top 30 Retailers are seeing over 50% of their mobile traffic growth come from
browsers.
So u rce : C o msco re D a ta , M o rg a n Sta n le y
Finance/Insurance: Still "Browsing" on Mobile...
Finance/Insurance: Still "Browsing" on Mobile...
We find a similar mobile situation in the financial category (an estimated 14% of the total U.S. search market),
as
8 of the 14 insurance companies (57%) don’t have mobile app audiences large enough to be
measured
(See
Exhibit 10
Exhibit 10
). In addition, even among insurance companies that have mobile apps, mobile web
traffic is still ~4.5X larger than mobile app traffic. This, in our view, again speaks to the difficulty in changing
consumer behavior as
people looking for insurance in a mobile world are still (
at least) 4.5X more
likely to do their product/price comparing through a browser
(and probably Google) rather than a
brand-specific app downloaded on their mobile device.
The insurance companies’ mobile traffic growth is predominantly coming from browsers too, as all of them
except Geico (which had its app contribute 54% of mobile growth y/y) and Esurance (which saw its browser
traffic's mobile contribution to growth fall y/y) are getting over 50% of their mobile traffic
growth
from mobile
browsers (See
Exhibit 11
Exhibit 11
). This again speaks to the browser’s entrenched position in mobile consumer behavior
and the importance for insurance companies to continue to spend on Google paid search for traffic and new
customer acquisition even through the mobile transition…which is important to Google’s long-term earnings
power given the size of this category.
The Banks and Networks have Had Success Building App User Bases (we believe) because of Personal
Banking
On the other hand, the banks and card networks have had more success building mobile app user bases (we
believe, in large part, for personal banking purposes), but
even here mobile browser audiences are still ~1.5x
larger than mobile app audiences
.
We attribute this in large part to the convenience of personal mobile banking
(checking account balances, etc.) rather than the ability to search for financial products within providers' apps
(see
Exhibit 12
Exhibit 12
). After all, it is still important to shop and compare rates and offerings when purchasing financial
products, which in our view is still a process that is more likely to begin on Google or in a browser.
Exhibit 10:
Exhibit 10:
Consumers looking for insurance on a
mobile device are ~4.5X more likely to do their
search on a mobile browser than an app
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 11:
Exhibit 11:
Only 2 insurance companies – Geico
and Esurance – drove over 50% of their mobile
traffic growth from apps
Exhibit 12:
Exhibit 12:
Almost all U.S. consumers (92%) use mobile banking/finance apps to check their account
balances and recent transactions
So u rce : B o a rd o f G o ve rn o rs o f Th e F e d e ra l R e se rve Syste m, M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
Exhibit 13:
Exhibit 13:
The banks and card networks have
had more success building mobile app user bases,
but mobile browser audiences are still ~1.5x
larger...
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 14:
Exhibit 14:
...And only 3 of 8 sites drove over 50%
of their mobile traffic growth from apps
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Travel: OTA Mobile Browser Audiences Over 4X Larger
Travel: OTA Mobile Browser Audiences Over 4X Larger
Travel makes up an estimated 6% of the total U.S. search market and here again we see browser traffic
continuing to be important as consumers migrate from desktop to mobile. First,
consider the online travel
agencies/intermediaries
(see
Exhibit 15
Exhibit 15
), where 10 of 11 (91%) have mobile apps, but
mobile browser
audiences are still ~4.5x larger than mobile app audiences
(among those with mobile apps and browsers).
The browser reach advantage ranges from 1.4X (at Airbnb) to 19.2x (at Booking.com). Given its small size and
rapid growth, Airbnb's current browser vs. app traffic mix speaks to how this player (in our view) is likely best
positioned to eventually grow its app user base to be larger than its browser base.
But it is telling that despite the online travel agencies’ (OTAs') continued efforts over the past 2 years to grow
their mobile app install bases – to generate more direct traffic and reduce their dependency on Google and
lower their customer acquisition costs – nearly 4.5x more mobile travel shoppers still visit via browser than app.
The OTAs’ mobile traffic growth is largely coming from browsers too, a
s anywhere from 52% to over 100%
of OTA mobile traffic
growth
is coming via browser
(see
Exhibit 16
Exhibit 16
).
This again, in our view,
s
peaks to the difficulty in changing consumer behavior
as travel shoppers are
more accustomed to searching and researching their travel in mobile browsers from their years doing the same
activity on desktop. Many consumers prefer to visit multiple online travel agencies as well (as the mobile traffic
over-lap among the OTAs ranges from 14% to 58%) which again makes people more likely to use a browser
than an OTAs' specific app. These data again speak to how
the OTAs are likely to continue to be dependent
on Google as travel migrates to mobile
(which is important given the size of the travel search spend
category).
And Hotels Remain Dependent on Google for Traffic too
In the U.S., the
large hotel chains
(covered by Thomas Allen) are even more dependent on Google, as
6 of 9
(67%) don’t have mobile app audiences large enough to be measured
(See
Exhibit 17
Exhibit 17
). This speaks
(again) to the entrenched browser consumer behavior in travel research, as well as the lack of a “hotel chain
app” use case. That is, it is arguably less efficient to use a Starwood app, then a Hyatt app, then a Marriott app,
Exhibit 15:
Exhibit 15:
OTAs browser audiences are still
~4.5x larger than mobile app audiences...
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 16:
Exhibit 16:
...and the OTAs’ mobile traffic growth
is largely coming from browsers too
The Airlines have had the most App success in the Travel Vertical, but Still Over-index toward
Browsers
Among the U.S. travel players, the airlines (covered by Rajeev Lalwani) have been most successful at growing
their app user bases, but even here we see that mobile browser traffic is still ~3X larger than mobile app traffic
(
Exhibit 19
Exhibit 19
). We attribute part of the airlines’ app success to mobile check-in and other “in-travel functionality”
(flight notifications, etc.) rather than a strong travel “search-and-research-and-book” use case.
That said, given the importance of airfare and ticket prices for shoppers, we believe that cross airline flight
search and comparison remains a frequent mobile activity…which speaks to why the airlines will continue to
have to buy Google paid search advertising. In addition, browser traffic is important for growth, as anywhere
from 63% to over 100% of the airlines’ mobile traffic
growth
is coming via browser (see
Exhibit 20
Exhibit 20
). Here again
we don’t see any signs that the airlines will be able to pull away from spending on paid search as consumer
behavior transitions to mobile.
Exhibit 17:
Exhibit 17:
The large hotel chains are very
dependent on Google, as 6 of 9 (67%) don’t have
mobile app audiences large enough to be
measured...
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Researc
Exhibit 18:
Exhibit 18:
...and most of their mobile traffic
growth is coming from browsers
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 19:
Exhibit 19:
The airlines have been more
successful than the hotels at growing their app
user bases, but their browser traffic is still ~3X
larger than app traffic...
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 20:
Exhibit 20:
...and most of their mobile traffic
growth is coming from browsers
Source: C om score Data, Morgan Stanley Research
Appendix
Appendix
The top 50 mobile sites in the U.S. (below) were selected from monthly Comscore data. We ranked them by total
mobile browser plus mobile application unique visitors across all mobile platforms (smartphones and tablets).
This lists comprises the top 50 sites by unique visitors from July 2015.
The below list is ranked by "Browser Reach Advantage" – a metric that captures the size of mobile browser
traffic relative to mobile app traffic. A Browser Reach Advantage above 1.0x indicates more mobile browser
traffic than mobile app traffic.
Exhibit 21:
Exhibit 21:
Top 50 U.S. Mobile Properties by Unique Visitors, Browser vs. App- July 2015
So u rce : C o msco re D a ta , M o rg a n Sta n le y R e se a rch
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Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC makes a market in the securities of Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Expedia Inc., Facebook Inc, Google, Groupon, Inc., GrubHub Inc., HomeAway, Inc., IAC/InterActiveCorp, LinkedIn Corp, Priceline Group Inc, RetailMeNot Inc, Shutterstock Inc, Twitter Inc, Yahoo! Inc, Yelp Inc, Zillow Group Inc, Zynga Inc.
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STOCK RATINGS
Morgan Stanley uses a relative rating system using terms such as Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated or Underweight (see definitions below). Morgan Stanley does not assign ratings of Buy, Hold or Sell to the stocks we cover. Overweight, Equal-weight, Not-Rated and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, hold and sell. Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in Morgan Stanley Research. In addition, since Morgan Stanley Research contains more complete information concerning the analyst's views, investors should carefully read Morgan Stanley Research, in its entirety, and not infer the contents from the rating alone. In any case, ratings (or research) should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances (such as the investor's existing holdings) and other considerations.
COVERAGE UNIVERSE INVESTMENT BANKING CLIENTS (IBC)
STOCK RATING CATEGORY COUNT % OF TOTAL COUNT % OF TOTAL IBC % OF RATING CATEGORY
Overweight/Buy
1206
36%
356
44%
30%
Equal-weight/Hold
1446
43%
352
44%
24%
Not-Rated/Hold
94
3%
11
1%
12%
Underweight/Sell
601
18%
83
10%
14%
TOTAL
3,347
802
Data include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months.
Analyst Stock Ratings
Overweight (O). The stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Equal-weight (E). The stock's total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Not-Rated (NR). Currently the analyst does not have adequate conviction about the stock's total return relative to the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Underweight (U). The stock's total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analyst's industry (or industry team's) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12-18 months.
Unless otherwise specified, the time frame for price targets included in Morgan Stanley Research is 12 to 18 months.
Analyst Industry Views
Attractive (A): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
In-Line (I): The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Cautious (C): The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America S&P 500; Latin America relevant MSCI country index or MSCI Latin America Index; Europe -MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant -MSCI country index or -MSCI sub-regional index or -MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan Index.
Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History (See Rating Definitions)
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Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC and its affiliates have a significant financial interest in the debt securities of Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Etsy Inc, Expedia Inc., Facebook Inc, Google, Groupon, Inc., LinkedIn Corp, Priceline Group Inc, Twitter Inc, Yahoo! Inc, Zynga Inc.
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INDUSTRY COVERAGE: Internet
COMPANY (TICKER) RATING (AS OF) PRICE* (09/23/2015)
Brian Nowak, CFA
Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) O (04/24/2015) $536.07
eBay Inc (EBAY.O) E (04/23/2015) $25.59
Etsy Inc (ETSY.O) E (05/11/2015) $14.61
Expedia Inc. (EXPE.O) E (05/01/2015) $122.14
Facebook Inc (FB.O) O (04/23/2015) $93.97
Google (GOOGL.O) O (08/11/2015) $653.29
HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY.O) U (02/25/2015) $27.12
IAC/InterActiveCorp (IACI.O) E (06/26/2015) $68.08
LinkedIn Corp (LNKD.N) O (02/25/2015) $196.85
Priceline Group Inc (PCLN.O) E (02/25/2015) $1,275.99
Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) E (11/03/2014) $26.79
Yahoo! Inc (YHOO.O) O (03/26/2015) $29.74
Yelp Inc (YELP.N) E (07/29/2015) $23.10
Dean J Prissman
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN.O) E (02/25/2015) $3.73
GrubHub Inc. (GRUB.N) O (02/25/2015) $25.59
King Digital Entertainment PLC (KING.N) O (07/13/2015) $13.76
RetailMeNot Inc (SALE.O) E (07/13/2015) $8.66
Shutterstock Inc (SSTK.N) U (07/13/2015) $30.46
TrueCar Inc (TRUE.O) E (07/13/2015) $5.52
Zillow Group Inc (Z.O) O (07/13/2015) $27.49
Zynga Inc (ZNGA.O) E (07/13/2015) $2.39
Stock Ratings are subject to change. Please see latest research for each company. * Historical prices are not split adjusted.