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Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) 9 October 2013

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Company Update, 9 October 2013

Hengdeli Holdings

(3389 HK)

Buy

(Maintained)

Consumers Staples - Retail

Target Price:

HKD2.25

Market Cap: USD1,239m

Price:

HKD2.00

Still Expecting Better Times Ahead

Macro



3 . 0 0 Risks



3 . 0 0 Growth



2 . 0 0 Value



3 . 0 0 76 85 94 102 111 120 129 137 146 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 Hengdeli Holdings (3389 HK) Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS)

50 100 150 200 250 O c t-12 D e c -12 F e b -13 A p r-13 J u n -13 A u g -13 V o l m Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) 16.2m/2.05m

Cons. Upside (%) -7.0 Upside (%) 12.7 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 1.69 - 2.85 Free float (%) 48 Shareholders (%) Zhang Yu Ping 36.3 Swatch Group 9.1 LVMH Group 6.4 Shariah compliant Eugene Mak +852 2103 9202 [email protected]

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (CNYm) 11,375 12,120 13,520 15,091 17,610 Reported net profit (CNYm) 815 855 561 716 952 Recurring net profit (CNYm) 793 789 623 716 952 Recurring net profit growth (%) 43.1 (0.5) (21.1) 14.9 33.0 Core EPS (CNY) 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.15 0.20

DPS (CNY) 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.04

Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.5

Core P/E (x) 9.6 9.7 12.2 10.6 8.0

Return on average equity (%) 17.7 16.5 9.9 11.6 13.9

P/B (x) 1.56 1.40 1.28 1.17 1.05

P/CF (x) 39 31 168 12 10

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.44 5.51 7.56 6.37 5.19 Net debt to equity (%) 3.5 22.2 32.9 28.8 23.2 Our vs consensus EPS (%) (15.5) (11.8) 2.7

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

During our recent NDR with Hengdeli, management indicated that its July/Aug mid-end retail sales grew by a mid-teen % y-o-y but its high-end retail sales dipped by a high-teen % y-o-y, in line with 1H13 while HK/Macau saw sales up high single digit % y-o-y. Hengdeli now expects a turnaround in 2H14. We maintain BUY, TP: HKD2.25, as we make no changes to our earnings forecasts and target FY14F P/E of 12x.

Stable 2H13F, turnaround expected in 2H14. In July/Aug, China’s

mid-end retail sales grew by a mid-teen % y-o-y, while high-mid-end retail sales dipped by a high-teen % y-o-y, in line with 1H13. HK/Macau had a high single-digit % y-o-y growth (1H13: 14% y-o-y). 2H13 GPM is expected to remain in line with that of 1H13. Hengdeli expects a recovery by 2H14.

Negative impact from ban on forced shopping tours. We expect the

ban on forced shopping tours in HK to have a direct negative impact on the group’s 70% interest in Harvest Max (HM). Management said it will be able to provide more updates towards end-October. We leave our HM forecasts unchanged pending further updates on its operations. Despite HM’s high SG&A/turnover of 64% (16% of the group’s 1H13 SG&A), its impact on group earnings may not be significant as most of its SG&A is from commission expense to tours (linked to HM’s turnover). Management has yet to disclose HM’s commission rate.

SG&A growth to stabilise after FY13F. In 1H13, selling expense (excluding HM) grew ~17% y-o-y (+42% y-o-y including HM), as ~70% of its HK stores had their rental contract renewed and saw rental cost increasing by ~40%/store. Starting FY14F, SG&A will stabilise as the group will not face rental pressure in China, while most of its HK stores will not have rental renewal for another three years, with most of HM’s SG&A coming from commission expense.

Maintain BUY with HKD2.25 TP on expected FY14F turnaround. We leave our TP unchanged with a target FY14F P/E of 12x, and maintain BUY in view of the 13% upside potential. Although we remain positive on Hengdeli’s growth prospects as Greater China’s largest watch retailer, we retain our target P/E and earnings estimates pending further operational details on HM from Hengdeli.

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Improving operating CF going forward. Hengdeli expects operating cash flow (CF) to improve by FY13F (1H13 operating CF: CNY177m outflow). We now expect operating CF to reach CNY45m in FY13F, and continue to improve going forward as inventory days shorten (increased contribution of mid-end watches which have a higher turnover rate) and as EBIT begins to recover.

HKD2.2bn CB refinancing funded by senior note issued in January. Hengdeli aims to pay back all or part of its HKD2.2bn convertible bonds (CB) on 22 Oct 2013 (effective interest of 5.0% due in 2015), refinanced by a USD350m senior note issued in Jan 2013 (6.25% per annum maturing in 2018). Hengdeli explained that the early refinance is due to the uncertainty in the future interest rate outlook. Management expects no further borrowing needs from now until end-FY14F.

Net gearing to increase to 33% in FY13F and decline from FY14F. Due to the weak operating CF in FY13F (CNY45m), we now expect net gearing to increase from 22% in FY12 to 33% in FY13F. However, as we expect operating CF to gradually improve, coupled with the company’s undemanding capex needs, we project FY14F/15F net gearing to decline to 29% and 23% respectively.

Finance cost to significantly increase in FY13F, but decline in FY14F. As the CBs will not be paid off until 22 Oct, the group will incur interest expenses from CBs (a 5% effective interest) for the first 10 months of FY13F, as well as from the senior notes issued in January (6.25% per annum) for the entire FY13F. Hence, we expect FY13F interest expense to increase to CNY309m (effective interest rate of 9.5%) vs. 1H12:CNY266m (effective interest rate of 6.4%). However, as there will be no more CB expenses from FY14F onwards and no new bank borrowings, Hengdeli’s interest expense would decline to CNY225m (effective interest rate of 6.5%) for FY14F and FY15F.

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Figure 1: Hengdeli’s five-year historical forward P/E band 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13

Sh ar e P ri ce ( H K D ) +2SD = 22.3x +1SD = 18.1x Mean = 14.0x -1SD = 9.9x -2SD = 5.7x

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Figure 2: Valuation comparables – Hong Kong-listed jewellery and watch retailers

Company Ticker Price

Mkt cap (USDm) 3-mth avg t/o (USDm) P/E Hist

(x) P/E FY1 (x) P/E FY2 (x) EPS FY1 y-o-y% EPS FY2 y-o-y% 3-Yr EPS CAGR (%) PEG (x) Div yld Hist (%)

Div yld FY1 (%) P/BV Hist (x) P/BV FY1 (x) Hengdeli Holding 3389 HK 2.00 1,239 2.1 9.7 12.2 10.6 (21.1) 14.9 6.7 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 HSI 23,179 10.7 11.1 10.3 (3.2) 7.9 4.7 2.3 3.3 3.5 1.5 1.4 HSCEI 10,535 8.3 7.9 7.2 5.8 8.9 8.4 0.9 3.9 4.1 1.3 1.2 CSI300 2,442 11.8 10.6 9.1 11.5 17.0 14.9 0.7 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.5

Adjusted sector avg* 14.2 12.3 10.2 19.9 20.0 18.7 0.9 2.6 2.5 1.9 1.7

Chow Tai Fook Je 1929 HK 11.74 15,141 9.9 21.3 17.9 15.2 18.9 17.6 17.6 1.0 2.7 1.8 3.6 3.1

Chow Sang Sang 116 HK 23.70 2,069 1.5 13.8 13.3 11.1 22.3 19.8 19.1 0.7 2.5 2.8 2.2 2.0

Luk Fook Hldgs I 590 HK 25.30 1,922 7.0 11.8 10.5 9.0 12.1 17.2 15.8 0.7 3.4 3.8 2.3 2.0

Emperor Watch & 887 HK 0.68 604 1.0 13.5 13.6 10.6 (16.7) 28.0 9.1 1.5 2.2 1.9 1.1 1.1

Oriental Watch 398 HK 2.57 189 0.2 17.0 8.9 8.0 91.4 10.7 38.0 0.2 2.7 2.8 0.7 0.6

Stelux Hldg Intl 84 HK 2.73 368 0.3 12.2 9.3 7.0 31.4 33.1 25.0 0.4 2.6 3.3 2.0 1.4

Figure 3: Valuation comparables – Hong Kong-listed jewellery and watch retailers (continued)

Company Rev Hist (USDm) NP Hist (USDm) EV/ Ebitda Hist EV/ Ebitda Cur Yr Net gearing Hist (%) Net gearing

FY1 (%) Unlev beta Gross margin Hist (%) Net margin Hist (%) ROIC Hist (%) ROE Hist (%) ROE FY1 (%) Sh px 1-mth % Sh px 3-mth % Hengdeli Holding 1,980 129 5.5 7.6 22.2 32.9 1.3 26.0 7.1 7.3 16.5 9.9 14.9 16.3 HSI 13.6 12.4 2.5 12.6 HSCEI 15.2 14.8 1.9 16.2 CSI300 14.1 14.2 5.5 10.3

Adjusted sector avg* 10.1 8.6 12.7 7.4 1.2 28.8 6.9 10.8 14.3 13.8 6.7 26.6

Chow Tai Fook Je 7,407 710 15.4 12.6 0.0 0.0 1.19 28.4 9.6 13.3 17.8 18.4 7.7 45.5 Chow Sang Sang 2,355 127 12.5 10.2 22.6 12.2 1.19 18.8 5.4 10.6 17.0 16.1 11.8 53.9 Luk Fook Hldgs I 1,730 163 8.5 7.7 0.0 0.0 1.80 21.1 9.4 20.5 21.1 20.3 (4.2) 42.5 Emperor Watch & 842 52 7.1 8.6 0.0 0.0 1.30 26.0 6.2 8.1 8.2 8.1 7.9 15.3 Oriental Watch 481 11 12.7 7.1 14.0 3.9 1.04 18.8 4.4 4.1 7.5 5.4 8.9 4.5 Stelux Hldg Intl 470 30 7.4 6.2 30.1 2.6 0.46 62.7 6.4 11.4 18.1 17.4 (0.4) 8.5 *”N/A” entries excl. from calculations of averages

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg Based on 8 October closing prices

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Figure 4: Hengdeli's semi-annual results breakdown and forecasts

Actual

(CNYm) FY end-Dec 1H12 2H12 1H13 2H13F FY13F Total turnover 5,750 6,371 6,294 7,226 13,520 y-o-y change 6.3% 6.7% 9.5% 13.4% 11.6% - China Retail 2,825 2,803 2,852 2,904 5,756 y-o-y change 8.8% 7.3% 1.0% 3.6% 2.3% % of total turnover 49% 44% 45% 40% 43% - HK/Macau Retail 1,415 1,699 1,593 1,895 3,488 y-o-y change -2.4% -0.5% 12.6% 11.5% 12.0% % of total turnover 25% 27% 25% 26% 26% - Taiwan Retail 100 115 90 102 192 y-o-y change -3.0% -3.9% -9.4% -11.3% -10.4% % of total turnover 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% - Wholesale 1,284 1,830 1,361 1,944 3,305 y-o-y change 11.1% 31.2% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1% % of total turnover 22% 29% 22% 27% 24% - After-sales operations 127 88 114 97 211 y-o-y change 22.2% -33.3% -10.3% 10.2% -1.9% % of total turnover 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% - Harvest Max 0 0 284 284 568 y-o-y change - - - - % of total turnover - - 5% 4% 4% COGS (4,214) (4,752) (4,621) (5,370) (9,991) Gross Profit 1,536 1,619 1,673 1,856 3,529 y-o-y change 10.3% 10.5% 9.0% 14.6% 11.9% Gross margin 26.7% 25.4% 26.6% 25.7% 26.1% Selling expenses (710) (842) (1010) (1,162) (2,173) Administrative expenses (148) (208) (133) (187) (320) Other costs 0 1 0 0 0 Other income 49 37 67 22 89 Operating Profit 726 608 597 528 1,126 y-o-y change 4.6% 6.4% -17.8% -13.1% -15.6% Operating margin 12.6% 9.5% 9.5% 7.3% 8.3% Finance costs (136) (131) (156) (153) (309) Finance income 31 34 30 11 42

Share results from JV 10 22 9 23 32

Exceptional items 140 (74) (62) 0 -62

Pre-tax profits 771 460 419 410 829

Tax (158) (128) (117) (90) (207)

Effective tax rate 20.4% 27.8% 27.9% 22.0% 25.0%

Minority interest (51) (39) (30) (31) (61)

Reported net Profit 563 292 273 289 561

y-o-y change 25.6% -20.3% -51.6% -1.3% -34.4%

Recurring net Profit 423 366 334 289 623

y-o-y change -5.6% 6.2% -21.0% -21.2% -21.1%

Recurring net margin 7.4% 5.7% 5.3% 4.0% 4.6%

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Figure 5: Major forecast parameters

(CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F

Total turnover 11,375 12,120 13,520 15,091 17,610

y-o-y change 38.5% 6.6% 11.6% 11.6% 16.7%

China Retail Operations

China Turnover 5,210 5,628 5,756 6,401 7,378 y-o-y change 38.2% 8.0% 2.3% 11.2% 15.3% % of total turnover 45.8% 46.4% 42.6% 42.4% 41.9% Stores High-end 62 58 48 48 48 net additions 3 (4) (10) - -Mid-end 11 316 346 381 416 net additions 43 46 30 35 35 Subtotal 332 374 394 429 464 net additions 46 42 20 35 35

High-end retail turnover 2,337 2,116 1,502 1,390 1,487 y-o-y change NA -9.5% -29.0% -7.5% 7.0% % of total turnover 20.5% 17.5% 11.1% 9.2% 8.4% Mid-end retail turnover 2,873 3,512 4,255 5,011 5,891 y-o-y change NA 22.2% 21.2% 17.8% 17.6% % of total turnover 25.3% 29.0% 31.5% 33.2% 33.5% SSSG High-end NA -15% -19% 7% 7% Mid-end NA 8% 1% 7% 7% Gross margin 31.7% 33.9% 32.0% 33.0% 33.0% HK/Macau Retail Operations HK/Macau Turnover 3,157 3,114 3,488 3,802 4,659 y-o-y change 30.9% -1.4% 12.0% 9.0% 22.5% % of total turnover 27.8% 25.7% 25.8% 25.2% 26.5% Stores (high-end only) 19 22 19 22 22

net additions 3 3 (3) 3

-SSSG 7% -16% 11% 10% 10% Gross margin 23.7% 24.2% 22.0% 22.0% 22.5% Taiwan Retail Operations Taiwan Retail turnover 222 215 192 208 216

y-o-y change 15.3% -3.4% -10.4% 8.1% 4.0% % of total turnover 2.0% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 1.2% SSSG -14% -12% -14% 4% 4% Gross Margin 33.6% 32.2% 33.6% 33.6% 33.6% Wholesale Operations 2,551 2,925 3,305 3,814 4,394 y-o-y change 53.5% 14.7% 13.0% 15.4% 15.2% % of total turnover 22.4% 24.1% 24.4% 25.3% 25.0% Gross Margin 11.8% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% After-sales Operations 235 239 211 242 276 y-o-y change 30.9% 1.6% -12.0% 14.8% 14.0% % of total turnover 2.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Gross Margin 35.3% 37.2% 34.1% 33.8% 33.8% Harvest Max - - 568 625 688 y-o-y change NA NA NA 10.0% 10.0% % of total turnover 0.0% 0.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% Gross Margin 0.0% 0.0% 70.6% 70.6% 70.6%

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Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover 11,375 12,120 13,520 15,091 17,610 Cost of sales (8,518) (8,966) (9,991) (11,107) (12,966) Gross profit 2,857 3,154 3,529 3,984 4,644

Gen & admin expenses (369) (356) (320) (365) (406)

Selling expenses (1,325) (1,552) (2,173) (2,503) (2,797) Other operating costs 102 87 89 92 108

Operating profit 1,265 1,334 1,126 1,207 1,549 Operating EBITDA 1,340 1,447 1,241 1,325 1,674 Depreciation of fixed assets (72) (107) (110) (111) (118)

Amortisation of intangible assets (3) (6) (6) (7) (7)

Operating EBIT 1,265 1,334 1,126 1,207 1,549 Net income from investments (1) 32 32 32 32

Interest income 90 65 42 27 30

Interest expense (178) (266) (309) (225) (225)

Exceptional income - net 22 66 (62) -

-Pre-tax profit 1,198 1,231 829 1,042 1,386 Taxation (280) (285) (207) (250) (333)

Minority interests (103) (90) (61) (76) (101)

Profit after tax & minorities 815 855 561 716 952

Reported net profit 815 855 561 716 952

Recurring net profit 793 789 623 716 952

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Cash flow (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Operating profit 1,265 1,334 1,126 1,207 1,549 Depreciation & amortisation 75 113 116 117 125

Change in working capital (873) (782) (858) (351) (436)

Other operating cash flow 2 (3) (39) 32 32

Operating cash flow 470 662 344 1,005 1,270 Dividends received (28) (38) (45) (55) (65)

Tax paid (247) (376) (253) (318) (423)

Cash flow from operations 195 248 45 632 781

Capex (208) (434) (120) (175) (175)

Other new investments (2) (22) (305) -

-Other investing cash flow (58) (95) 87 82 95

Cash flow from investing activities (268) (552) (338) (93) (80)

Dividends paid (185) (281) (112) (143) (190)

Shares repurchased - (10) - -

-Increase in debt 953 (119) 1,285 - -Other financing cash flow (88) (358) (2,431) (324) (324)

Cash flow from financing activities 680 (768) (1,259) (467) (514)

Cash at beginning of period 3,410 3,942 2,870 1,318 1,391 Total cash generated 608 (1,072) (1,551) 73 187

Forex effects (75) 0 - - -Implied cash at end of period 3,942 2,870 1,319 1,391 1,578

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Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (CNYm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total cash and equivalents 4,104 2,871 1,318 1,391 1,578 Inventories 4,521 5,570 6,195 6,664 7,390 Accounts receivable 1,115 1,369 1,622 1,811 2,113 Other current assets - 0 - - -Total current assets 9,740 9,810 9,135 9,866 11,082 Total investments 786 1,152 814 1,682 1,512 Tangible fixed assets 666 997 1,007 1,071 1,128 Intangible assets 320 474 779 779 779 Total other assets 78 53 51 56 62 Total non-current assets 1,849 2,676 2,651 3,588 3,482 Total assets 11,589 12,486 11,786 13,455 14,563 Short-term debt 2,089 3,622 1,099 1,099 1,099 Accounts payable 1,759 2,163 1,798 2,777 2,982 Other current liabilities 174 30 33 37 43 Total current liabilities 4,022 5,815 2,930 3,913 4,124 Total long-term debt 220 562 2,346 2,346 2,346 Other liabilities 2,017 196 54 58 62 Total non-current liabilities 2,237 758 2,400 2,404 2,408 Total liabilities 6,259 6,572 5,330 6,316 6,532 Share capital 21 21 23 23 23 Retained earnings reserve 4,870 5,436 5,885 6,457 7,219 Shareholders' equity 4,891 5,457 5,907 6,480 7,242 Minority interests 440 457 548 658 790 Total equity 5,331 5,914 6,456 7,138 8,031 Total liabilities & equity 11,589 12,486 11,786 13,455 14,563

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Valuation and Growth Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Valuation Ratios Core P/E (x) 9.6 9.7 12.2 10.6 8.0 Dividend yield (%) 3.7 2.3 1.5 1.9 2.5 P/BV (x) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 Growth Revenue (%) 38.5 6.6 11.6 11.6 16.7 Gross profit (%) 39.4 10.4 11.9 12.9 16.6 Recurring net profit (%) 43.1 -0.5 -21.1 14.9 33.0

Per Share Data (CNY)

Core EPS 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.15 0.20 DPS 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.04 Payout Ratio (%) 34.5 20.4 20.0 20.0 20.0 BVPS 1.01 1.13 1.23 1.35 1.51 Financial Ratios Gross margin (%) 25.1 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.4 Operating margin (%) 11.1 11.0 8.3 8.0 8.8 Recurring net margin (%) 7.0 6.5 4.6 4.7 5.4

Current ratio 2.4 1.7 3.1 2.5 2.7 Total Debt/equity (%) 80.5 70.7 53.4 48.3 42.9 Net debt/equity (%) 3.5 22.2 32.9 28.8 23.2 Inventory days 165 205 215 211 198 Receivable days 34 37 40 42 41 Payable days 57 80 72 75 81 ROA (%) 7.9 7.1 4.6 5.7 6.8 ROE (%) 17.7 16.5 9.9 11.6 13.9

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SWOT Analysis

 China’s largest watch retailer

 Distributes both high- and mid-end watches through four different store formats

 Swatch Group and LVMH as major strategic shareholders  A slowdown in China/Hong Kong’s retail sector  China’s economic slowdown persists  More unfavourable policies from the Chinese Government on luxury spending  Increasing competition from other distributors  Long-term growth potential in both luxury and mid-end watch demand in China  Continues to expand presence in China through expansion into lower-tier cities

 Non-core businesses (Ming Fung Jewellery and Harvest Max) drag down overall group performance

 Pricing controlled by watch suppliers

 Balance sheet / cash flow health remains a concern

-40% -26% -13% 1% 15% 29% 43% 56% 70% 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 J a n -11 J a n -12 J a n -13 J a n -14 J a n -15

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

0% 3% 7% 10% 13% 17% 20% 23% 27% 30% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 J a n -11 J a n -12 J a n -13 J a n -14 J a n -15 P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile

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Recommendation Chart

0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.6 5.1

Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11 Jul-12 Price Close

NR 3.20 3.87 3.40 3.30 2.24

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Prof it Not Rated

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-08-30 Buy 2.24 1.78 2013-05-20 Buy 3.30 1.98 2013-03-27 Buy 3.40 1.98 2013-01-22 Buy 3.87 2.79 2012-11-02 Buy 3.20 2.60 2012-09-10 Buy 3.20 2.02

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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months

Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain

Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months

Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels

Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months

Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

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Figure

Figure 1:  Hengdeli’s five-year historical forward P/E band  0.001.002.003.004.005.00
Figure 4:  Hengdeli's semi-annual results breakdown and forecasts   Actual

References

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