Week ahead April 22-26

(1)

APRIL 22, 2013

Week ahead April 22-26

US:

GDP probably grew by 2.9

percent in Q1. In March, capital

goods shipment as well as new

home sales likely increased.

Sweden:

Minor increase in

forecast unemployment rate;

small steps away from “weaker

than normal” confidence.

Norway:

No items.

EMU:

We expect PMI composite

to increase to 46.8 in April.

China:

Flash PMI casts first

light on April.

(2)

2 April 19, 2013

US NEW HOME SALES (TUESDAY)

New home sales on an increasing trend

New home sales were likely 0.42 million in March, versus 0.41 million in February. The

consensus expectation is also 0.42 million.

New home sales dropped dramatically from its peak in 2005 on the back on sharply

drop-ping residential investment.

Currently, new home sales are rebounding due to a sharp rise in residential building activity

(housing starts, building permits and residential investment). In coming years, we forecast

that residential investment will continue to grow by double-digit numbers.

(3)

US DURABLE GOODS ORDER (WEDNESDAY)

Capital goods shipment up 0.5 percent in March

Durable goods orders

We expect durable goods orders to decline m-o-m by 2.5 percent in March, versus an

in-crease of 5.7 percent in February. Durable goods orders are volatile and the decline in

March should be seen as a reaction to a strong reading in February.

Consensus expects a decline of 2.7 percent in March.

Non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts

Non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts are released at the same time as goods

orders. It is a much better leading indicator for investment in equipment and software than

durable goods orders.

We believe that non-defense capital goods shipments ex aircrafts will increase m-o-m by

0.5 percent in March, versus 1.9 percent in February.

The ISM surveys show strong expectations of a rebound in US exports, likely boosting

cap-ital goods shipments and business investment. The Cyprus-related turmoil in the eurozone

that started in March works, however, probably in the opposite direction.

(4)

4 April 19, 2013

US: ADVANCED ESTIMATE OF GDP (FRIDAY)

GDP up 2.9 percent in Q1

In the first quarter of this year, GDP likely grew by 2.9 percent in annualised q-o-q terms,

versus 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. Consensus expects GDP to grow by 3.0

percent.

Private consumption expenditure likely increased by 2.0 percent, versus 1.8 percent in the

fourth quarter.

Non-residential investment likely increased by 8.2 percent, versus 13.2 percent in the fourth

quarter.

Residential investment likely increased by 4.1 percent, versus 17.6 percent in the fourth

quarter.

Inventory investment likely added 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth, versus a cut of 1.4

percentage points in the fourth quarter.

Net export likely added 0.2 percentage points of GDP growth, versus 0.3 percentage points

in the fourth quarter.

Public expenditure likely remained unchanged, versus a decline of 7.0 percent in the fourth

quarter.

(5)

SWEDEN: LFS UNEMPLOYMENT (LABOUR FORCE SURVEY, AKU), MARCH (TUESDAY)

Minor increase in forecast unemployment rate

Our forecast for the unemployment rate in February is 8.3/8.7 percent (SA and NSA,

re-spectively). This means some underlying (SA) increase since last month. The February

reading landed at unemployment rates at 8.2/8.5 percent (SA/NSA), which was close to

consensus expectations.

Our estimates on March include a slight decrease for employment and a roughly flat labour

force. So, the calculated increase in the unemployment rate is barely significant.

In level terms, several model estimates based on hard and soft data still point to lower

em-ployment and higher unemem-ployment. But this conclusion, which we typically have landed

at for several quarters now, is about levels and not on the current direction. Instead looking

what data suggest on current the rate-of-change, we find no strong evidence for significant

weakening. Basically, as labour hoarding has been more significant than we anticipated, we

revised our labour market projections. Now, forecast employment trends basically sideways

in 2013. The unemployment increase we forecast is hence smaller than what we previously

expected. Look for our Macro Report next week (Thursday, April 25).

Vacancies & employment Confidence in service sectors

Layoffs and unemployment Employment plans in NIER barometer

(6)

6 April 19, 2013

SWEDEN: ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE, NIER SURVEY, APRIL (FRIDAY)

Small steps away from “weaker than normal” outlook

We forecast the Manufacturing Confidence Index (MCI) at -8 in April, up from -10 in

March, which was close to expectations. Anything else than strengthening in April would

be surprising. Some German barometers have perhaps passed a soft patch, but looking at

orders data and components for Swedish manufacturing indicators, we think the short-term

trend should be up. However, we do not expect rapid recovery.

We expect the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 4.3 in April, up from 2.8 in March,

slightly stronger than expectations. Last month, a rapid recovery in the macro components

boosted CCI. This was a surprise and perhaps such a continued trend of perceived

im-provement in macro conditions is an upside to our estimate. On the micro components, we

expect a continued increase but still a historically low net balance. Domestic factors are

broadly supportive to households, but the journey to “normal” sentiment should not be

swift, in our view.

Our estimate for the Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in April is 96.9, up from 95.4 in

March. So in total, Swedish sentiment remains clearly depressed. Construction and

manu-facturing barometers should continue to weigh on forthcoming ETI readings.

Sector sentiment MCI vs. manufacturing PMI

Source: Macrobond

Consumer confidence

Economic Tendency Indicator

Source: Macrobond

(7)

EURO ZONE: FLASH PMI (TUESDAY)

PMI stops decreasing in April



We expect PMI Composite to increase to 46.8 in April (previously 46.5)



We expect PMI Manufacturing to decrease to 46.0 in April (previously 46.8)



We expect PMI Services to increase to 47.0 in April (previously 46.4)

The PMI composite index has fallen over the last two months and the service index in

par-ticular disappointed in March. PMI has suggested that the economy was stuck in recession

in the first quarter of 2013. In this context, it was services in particular disappointed with a

bigger drop than expected. Per country, the decrease was particularly visible in Germany

and France, with the latter particularly worrying. French services PMI fell to just 41.3 - the

lowest since the crisis was at its worst in early 2009. In addition, the reading was lower

than in Italy and Spain, which both managed to increase to just over 45.

However, we expect the overall PMI Composite Index to remain essentially unchanged in

April, with the possibility of a slight increase to about 46.8. We expect continued

weak-nesses in the manufacturing sector that can be related to the previously strengthening in

EUR, where some negative impact is yet to be seen. If we look at global manufacturing, it

gives a mixed picture. China PMI (NBS) has increased to an almost year-high level, while

the US has disappointed with a more subdued March ISM. In terms of the service sector,

we expect a slight increase in the April PMI index. We mainly base this on the underlying

trend in the labour market having become slightly less negative recently.

Additionally, there may be some positive impact on PMIs, as the worst uncertainty about

Cyprus has disappeared and the continued Italian political uncertainty seems to have

es-caped financial market concerns of late.

Hence, with regard to the outlook for monetary policy at the ECB, the April PMI should not

per se advance easing speculations.

Still manufacturing strains from EUR Headwinds from unemployment slowing

(8)

8 April 19, 2013

CHINA, FLASH HSBC PMI MANUFACTURING APRIL (TUESDAY, 03:45)

Flash PMI first indication for April

Weak figures for GDP growth in the first quarter have questioned the strength of the

recov-ery that began in the fourth quarter of last year. Improving PMIs visibly above 50, strong

exports and rapid credit growth underpinned expectations of continued improvement in

activity in the first quarter. The slowdown in industrial production through the first quarter

did not tally well with PMI reports suggesting a pick-up in new orders and strong export

numbers. While this implies increased uncertainty about the use of early economic

indica-tors in providing guidance for official activity indicaindica-tors, we should remember that PMIs

are no more than indications and we should be careful in putting too much emphasis on

short-term variations.

HSBC Flash PMI for the manufacturing sector in April is published Tuesday. Consensus

expects a close to unchanged reading at 51.4 from the final PMI reading of 51.6 in March.

Despite the limited ability of recent PMIs to predict weakness in the industry, incoming

data will be scrutinised carefully but cautiously to determine whether the economy is on a

renewed path of deceleration or could see a pick-up in activity in the second quarter. One of

the big questions is why the contribution from investments to GDP growth almost halved

and if this owes to an inventory adjustment we will not be surprised to see a lift in the PMI

for April.

Thomas Haugaard, +4546791229, [email protected]

Surprisingly weak Q1

GDP raises

uncer-tainty about

eco-nomic outlook

HSBC Flash PMI to

be scrutinised for

any signs of direction

(9)

Economic calendar

April 22 - 26, 2013

CET

Country

Indicator

Cons. fc

Our fc

03:45 China HSBC PMI Manufacturing flash, Apr 51.4 51.6 08:00 Finland Unemployment rate, Mar 8.7 09:00 France PMI Manufacturing preliminary, Apr 44.1 44.0 PMI Services preliminary, Apr 42.0 41.3 09:30 Sweden Unemployment Rate, Mar 8.5 8.7 8.5 Unemployment Rate SA, Mar 8.2 8.3 8.2 09:30 Germany PMI Manufacturing advance, Apr 49.0 49.0 PMI Services advance, Apr 51.0 50.9 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing advance, Apr 46.7 46.0 46.8 PMI Services advance, Apr 46.6 47.0 46.4 PMI Composite advance, Apr 46.5 46.8 46.5 10:30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR), Mar 18.0bn -1.5bn 15:00 US House Price Index, Feb 0.7/ 0.6/ 16:00 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Apr 3.0 New Home Sales, Mar 419k 420k 411k

Wed, Apr 24

10:00 Germany IFO Business Climate, Apr 106.2 106.7 IFO Current Assessment, Apr 109.5 109.9 IFO Expectations, Apr 103.0 103.6 11:00 Italy Italy to Sell Bonds

11:03 Sweden SNDO T-bill auction: 5bn: 82 & 5bn: 145

14:00 Kerstin af Jochnick on financial stability and the new securities database

14:30 US Durable Goods Orders, Mar -2.9/ -2.5/ 5.7/ Durables ex Transport, Mar 0.7/ -0.5/ Capital Goods Orders non-defence ex air, Mar 0.3/ -2.7/ Capital Goods Shipment non-defence ex air, Mar 0.5/ 1.9/

Thu, Apr 25

09:00 Spain Unemployment Rate, Q1 26.5 26.02 09:30 Sweden PPI, Mar -0.4/-3.7 10:00 Handelsbanken publishes new Macro Forecast

10:30 UK GDP advance, Q1 0.1/0.4 -0.3/0.2 10:45 Sweden Lars E.O Svensson on debts, housing prices and monetary policy

14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims, Apr 19 351k 352k 17:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, Apr -5.0

Fri, Apr 26

Japan BOJ Target Rate, Apr 26 0.10 01:30 PMI Manufacturing, Apr 50.4 CPI, Mar /-0.8 /-0.7 08:00 Finland Dwelling prices, Mar 1.4/2.7 08:45 France Consumer Confidence, Apr 83.0 84.0 09:15 Sweden Consumer Confidence, Apr 4.5 4.3 2.8

Manufacturing Confidence sa, Apr -9.0 -8.0 -10.0 Economic Tendency Survey, Apr 96.5 96.9 95.4 09:15 Norway Gov. Olsen guest speech at UiN

09:30 Sweden Trade Balance, Mar 71.bn Household Lending, Mar /4.6 10:00 Norway Consumer confidence (CCI), April 2.8 11:00 Italy Italy to Sell Bills

14:30 US GDP annualized advance, Q1 /3.0 /2.9 /0.4 Personal Consumption advance, Q1 2.7/ 2.0/ 1.8/ Core PCE advance, Q1 1.0/ 15:55 University of Michigan Confidence final, Apr 73.5 72.3 Figures are reported in percent month on month/year on year if not otherwise stated

(10)

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(11)

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