HARNESS THE POWER
RENTECH engineers build unmatched power and performance into
every boiler we deliver. Our 80-acre manufacturing facility—the industry’s most
technologically advanced—includes heavy bay and light bay areas with direct access to rail, cross-country trucking routes and shipping facilities. We master every detail to deliver elemental power for clients worldwide. Take an expanded tour of our facilities today at www.rentechboilers.com/facilitiesHARNESS THE POWER WITH RENTECH.
OF MANUFACTURING INNOVATION
HEAT RECOVERY STEAM GENERATORS WASTE HEAT BOILERS
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JULY 2015 | HydrocarbonProcessing.com
REFINERY OF
THE FUTURE
Advanced project management and technology solutions facilitate revamps to meet environmental regulationsCHINA REPORT
CHINA REPORT
An “energy revolution” meets expanding An “energy revolution” meets expanding industrial infrastructure, demand growth industrial infrastructure, demand growth
LNG REPORT
LNG REPORT
Changing market conditions spur LNG Changing market conditions spur LNG developers to reassess project economics developers to reassess project economics
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Successful project execution requires Successful project execution requires managing different types of risk managing different types of risk
HARNESS THE POWER
RENTECH engineers build unmatched power and performance into
every boiler we deliver. Our 80-acre manufacturing facility—the industry’s most
technologically advanced—includes heavy bay and light bay areas with direct access to rail, cross-country trucking routes and shipping facilities. We master every detail to deliver elemental power for clients worldwide. Take an expanded tour of our facilities today at www.rentechboilers.com/facilitiesHARNESS THE POWER WITH RENTECH.
OF MANUFACTURING INNOVATION
HEAT RECOVERY STEAM GENERATORS WASTE HEAT BOILERS
FIRED PACKAGED WATERTUBE BOILERS SPECIALTY BOILERS
WWW.RENTECHBOILERS.COM Select 52 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS
JULY 2015 | Volume 94 Number 7 HydrocarbonProcessing.com
SPECIAL REPORT: REFINERY OF THE FUTURE
33 European refiner revamps delayed coker to meet Euro 5 specifications C. Bolohan, L. Manafu and J. D. Ward
39 Use advanced automation and project management to simplify refinery construction
E. Spiropoulos
43 Turning a Tier 3 profit J. Esteban and M. Hartman
49 How to cost-effectively adapt to a tight oil world D. Lindsay, M. Griffiths, A. Sabitov, D. Sioui and B. Glover BONUS REPORT: LNG
57 US liquefaction projects to drive global expansion of LNG trade
A. Slaughter
REGIONAL REPORT
59 China’s ‘energy revolution’ strives for sustainable growth
M. Rhodes
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
69 Better risk-management methods ensure project success C. Rentschler and G. Shahani
GAS TREATING
73 Improve LPG treating via advanced amine-solvent recovery technologies D. Engel, H. Burns and B. Spooner
MANAGEMENT
79 A data-driven, experience-based approach to workforce optimization
B. Glasscock
PROCESS AUTOMATION
82 Automate environmental monitoring at petrochemical plants with LIMS
T. Meek
Cover Image: Klesch Group’s Heide refinery, located north of Hamburg, Germany, is a distillates-focused plant. It produces mainly diesel, heating oil, jet fuel and some gasoline and petrochemicals. While servicing the inland markets, the refinery is well integrated with the local industrial community of Brunsbüttel, with access to road and rail networks and local pipelines. Photo courtesy of Photo Raffinerie Heide.
DEPARTMENTS 10 News 17 Industry Metrics 84 Innovations 86 Marketplace 88 Advertiser Index 89 Events 90 People COLUMNS 9 Editorial Comment
Courage amid challenge and change
19 Reliability
Trends from the 2015 AFPM Maintenance and Reliability Conference
21 Automation Strategies
Safety lifecycle management challenges in hydrocarbon processing plants
23 Global
Investment in Egypt’s downstream on the rise
25 Petrochemicals
Higher international sales boost 2015 earnings above forecast for many chemical leaders
27 Engineering Case Histories
Case 85: Learnings on hydraulically fitted hubs
29 Viewpoint
Advice for the downstream: Keep the faith
59
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Select 93 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RSGet the latest natural gas and LNG industry
outlooks, infrastructure updates, technology
developments and more
The second annual GasPro Americas will be held September 9-11, 2015 in Houston, Texas at the Hyatt Regency Houston. This year’s conference will be held in conjunction with LNG Americas, and together, these events provide a timely gathering for the gas processing industry to meet and discuss the latest challenges and developments; learn about the current economic outlook; share best practices; explore solutions to help improve production and effi ciency; network with peers and more.
Agenda at a Glance:
September 9: Combined Business Day / September 10–11: Dual-track Technical Program
The GasPro Americas track focuses on broader gas processing topics and the LNG Americas track is devoted to LNG. Attendees will be able to jump back and forth between BOTH conferences. Attend the sessions that interest you the most!
Technical Sessions Include:
• Separation/dehydration/acid gas removal • Rejection: Ethane/methane/nitrogen • NGL recovery• Gas sweetening/fractionation • Syngas production and utilization • Flaring and emissions
• Policy in the Americas
• Regional opportunities for the Americas: Pacifi c Northwest, Canada
• Bunkering • LNG supply chain
• Liquefaction and regasifi cation
AMERICAS
GasProcessingConference.com LNGAmericasConference.com
Two Events, One Location
September 9–11, 2015
Hyatt Regency Houston | Houston, Texas
Events Supported by:
Singapore | Singapore EXPO | 27 – 30 October 2015 28TH EDITION
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thBusiness Day Agenda: Wednesday, September 9
7:30–8:55 a.m. Registration and continental breakfastSession One: The future of natural gas in America
8:55–9 a.m. Opening Remarks: John Royall, President and Chief Executive Offi cer, Gulf Publishing Company
9–9:35 a.m. EIA: Annual Report 2015: Vishakh Mantri, PhD, PE, PMP, Offi ce of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis – Biofuels and Emerging Technologies Team, US Energy Information Administration
9:35–10 a.m. Domestic energy infrastructure update: Lee Nichols, Data Director, Gulf Publishing Company
10–10:30 a.m. Coff ee break Session Two: NGL in America
10:30–10:55 a.m. NGL Outlook: Anne Keller, Manager, NGL Research, Wood Mackenzie
10:55–11:20 a.m. Production of gas liquids – Eagle For and Marcellus/Utica: Ajey Chandra, Managing Director,
Muse, Stancil & Co
11:20–11:45 a.m. Gathering, processing and take away effi ciencies: Crestwood Midstream Partners (invited) 11:45 a.m.–12:45 p.m. Lunch
Session Three: The future of LNG—Are we still a competitive option for the global market
12:45–1:15 p.m. Global LNG: Will new demand and new supply mean new pricing: Dale Nijoka, Global Oil and Gas Leader,
EY (invited)
1:15–1:40 p.m. LNG Finance in World Markets: Jason Feer, Global Manager, Poten & Partners
1:40–2:10 p.m. Coff ee break
2:10–2:35 p.m. Methane emissions and solutions in natural gas: Matthew Kelly, Analyst¸ICF International (invited) 2:35–3:45 p.m. Panel Discussion: Reducing emissions – Operator response
Moderator: Ken Chow, Senior Partner, Muse, Stancil & Co
Invited panelists from: Enlink Midstream; Enterprise Products Partners, LP; Williams Partners; Energy Transfer Partners; Noble Energy; Chesapeake Energy; and Questar Pipeline Company.
3:45 p.m. Closing Remarks: John Royall, President and Chief Executive Offi cer, Gulf Publishing Company
*Visit GasProcessingConference.com for the complete technical program and agenda updates.
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ine:
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Comment
STEPHANY ROMANOW, EDITOR
Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 20159
Working in the downstream requires tremendous courage. Why courage? It does not mean HPI staff have no fear. Actually, it is quite the contrary. The downstream industry must manage risk at many levels that can be interpreted as almost fearful.
Why try? Why work in an industry that is constantly challenged by governments and regulatory agencies? For many, it is rewarding to overcome obstacles and to create products that have, and continue to, revolutionize society.
Today’s society was created through the development of transportation fuels and combustion engines. With both advance-ments, goods and people became more mobile, thus further developing commerce domestically and internationally.
Room for all. Some critics hold the thought that oil and natural gas-based fu-els and products have outlived their use-fulness, and that society should switch to renewable fuels and plastics.
Open-minded thinking supports the argument that there is room for all products. Research and development is warranted to identify and investigate al-ternative products as part of sustainable development for the long term. What is undermining, if not destructive, is the support of regulations that mandate con-version to alternative fuels before such products have been thoroughly devel-oped and can compete in the market-place without subsidies and penalizing regulations.
In the US, the battle to oust crude oil-based transportation fuels continues. For many years, critics of big oil have waged a war against transportation fuels under the guise of saving the planet and the people. This is a harsh viewpoint. Over the past two decades, transportation fu-els have been over-regulated under the premise of protecting the public and en-suring energy security.
‘When the going gets tough...’ Such conditions require courage by members of downstream companies to knowingly face these challenges and continue to develop viable solutions. What if Thomas Edison had quit working to find the proper fila-ment for the light bulb after the first few failures? For the most part, society would have remained in the dark, thus hindering the beginning of the industrial revolution.
In the US, outdated laws such as the Re-newable Fuel Standard (RFS) keep the re-fining business in the dark. Over the years,
HP has commented on environmental and
safety issues for transportation fuels and petrochemical products through the
In-sight and Editorial columns. As a member
of the HP editorial team for over 23 years, it has been my responsibility to develop these columns to comment on pressing is-sues for the downstream industry. A quick review of my past editorials yields a unique trend: Without fail, the downstream rallies to overcome numerous obstacles present-ed by changing economic cycles, regula-tions and technological developments.
There is no single solution to the topic of clean transportation fuels. Energy sup-plies are a political and social issue in ad-dition to being a profitability concern. Many parties are involved, thus further complicating viable solutions to meet the demands of all stakeholders.
Change requires courage. Many chal-lenges remain to be solved by the talented individuals working in this industry. It has been my great pleasure to share updates and present new ideas through past edi-torials. More importantly, it has been an honor to serve as an editor on the HP staff for the past 23 years.
As with other downstream compa-nies, HP is also undergoing a crew change as I retire from the HP team. I thank the numerous readers and members of the downstream community for their support of HP over the past two decades, and wish great success to all.
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
32
Refinery of the future.Process automation in oil refineries is undergoing major changes, driven by the need for faster and more comprehensive advances from automation OEMs. Yokogawa and ExxonMobil explain how advanced automation hardware technologies, when used in conjunction with new project management techniques, make refinery construction and upgrades simpler, easier and faster.
56
Bonus report: LNG.The global LNG environment is changing alongside fluctuating energy prices and trading patterns, particularly in Asia. The executive director of the Deloitte
Center for Energy Solutions explains how LNG developers will consider project economics on an individual basis, despite variable market conditions, and which countries will shape LNG trade flows over the next five years.
59
Regional report: China.China’s energy demand is rapidly increasing to keep pace with its expanding industrial and transportation infrastructure. The country’s
government has called for a “revolution in energy” amid pressure
to reduce air pollution levels and secure long-term, sustainable growth.
69
Project management.Management of project risk is a challenge; tight schedules and insufficient resources are at the heart of the problems surrounding capital projects. Linde Engineering discusses how to use risk management as a key ingredient in project execution, and presents alternative strategies for successfully managing risk.
| News
TOYO Engineering will use project execution
solutions to deliver Malaysia cracker
TOYO Engineering has purchased two leading Intergraph project execution solutions, which are being used to deliver a large-scale steam cracker complex in Malaysia. The project is part of the Refinery and Petrochemicals Integrated Development (RAPID) megaproject. When completed, it will consist of a 300-Mbpd refinery and petrochemical complex with a combined capacity of producing 7.7 MMtpy of various grades of products, including differentiated and specialty chemical products, such as synthetic rubbers and high-grade polymers.
The first solution is the Intergraph Smart 3D, which leverages real-time concurrent design, rules, relationships and automation specific to the plant industry. TOYO also selected SmartPlant Materials, which offers a total materials management and subcontract management solution for chemical plants and projects.
Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201511
MIKE RHODES, TECHNICAL EDITOR
News
Oman to build
multi-faceted facilities
in Indonesia
Oman will invest $7 B to build oil stor-age facilities, a petrochemical plant and a refinery in Indonesia. The refinery would be built in Indonesia’s Riau province, with the oil products being purchased by state-owned oil and gas company Per-tamina. An agreement was also signed for the supply of crude oil to the former OPEC member.
The project is now in the process of is-suing permits and groundbreaking is ex-pected to begin in 2016.
Indonesia’s fuel output has suffered from a lack of investment in its refining sector since the construction of its last re-finery was completed in 1994. Pertamina has 1 MMbpd in refining capacity, which it plans to raise to 2.3 MMbpd through upgrades and additional plants.
Neste, Total to develop
biosolvents, technical
fluids for downstream
Neste Oil and Total Fluides, a pro-ducer of high-purity hydrocarbon fluids, have signed a collaborative agreement for the supply of Neste’s NEXBTL renewable isoalkane used by Total Fluides as feed-stock to produce and develop innovative bio-based solvents and technical fluids.
NEXBTL renewable products have a comparable position to that of their fossil equivalents and can be transformed into materials with unique properties. Neste produces NEXBTL products intended for chemical industry use at its renewable products refineries in the Netherlands, Singapore and Finland (FIG. 1).
Total Fluides will market a new line of renewable fluids for numerous applica-tions such as paints and coatings, drilling fluids, solvents for emulsion polymeriza-tion, printing ink fluids, and emollients for cosmetics, among others. The bio-based fluids will be produced at the com-pany’s plant in France.
Haverhill to shutter Ohio
phenol/acetone plant
An unexpected withdrawal of finan-cial support has halted production and resulted in a cessation of operations at Haverhill Chemicals’ phenol/acetone complex in Ohio. Haverhill acquired the complex from Sunoco in late 2011. The site has a production capacity of 300 Mtpy of phenol and 173 Mtpy of acetone. Shipments to customers will continue until inventory is exhausted. The process is expected to be completed in July.
First Dragon-class
vessel to transport
US ethane to Europe
The first in a series of 27,500-cbm Dragon-class vessels ordered by Evergas, an owner and operator of seaborne petro-chemical and liquid gas transport vessels, has been delivered from the Sinopacific Offshore & Engineering (SOE) shipyard in China. The vessel features a compre-hensive Wärtsilä solutions package, in-cluding two Wärtsilä 50DF dual-fuel
en-gines, propulsion equipment (including the gearbox), two 20DF auxiliary gener-ating sets, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel system and a cargo handling system.
The Dragon-class ships (FIG. 2) will
be chartered by INEOS Europe for the transportation of ethane to Europe from the Mariner East project in the US. While the carriers are purpose built for the transportation of ethane, they can also carry a wide range of petrochemical gases and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
The various individual Wärtsilä solu-tions are integrated to form a fully opti-mized package. By engineering and sup-plying the complete cargo plant, along with the gas fuel supply system and the propulsion plant, optimal energy con-sumption efficiency for the entire vessel can be achieved. For example, the LNG supply system is integrated with the cargo handling system so it can be used to cool the cargo.
The Dragon-class vessels (FIG. 2) are
180 m long and 26.6 m wide with a draft of approximately 9 m, and they represent the largest ethane carriers in their class in the world.
12JULY 2015 | HydrocarbonProcessing.com
News
Chevron sells New
Zealand downstream
operations to Z Energy
Z Energy has agreed to buy Chevron Corp.’s downstream operations in New Zealand for $558 MM, ensuring its place as the nation’s biggest gasoline retailer. The company will add Chevron’s 146 Caltex retail outlets to its existing 210 sites, which were acquired in 2010 when the company took over assets from Royal Dutch Shell. It also will grow its share of supply to commercial operators and its role in distribution.
Chevron, which sold a 50% stake in Caltex Australia in March, has also di-vested an 11% stake in New Zealand Re-fining Co.
Emerson acquires
software group ESI
Emerson Process Management has acquired Energy Solutions International Holdings Inc. (ESI), expanding its capa-bility to provide complete solutions for automation and operations management throughout the oil and gas transporta-tion industry.
ESI’s integrated suite of operational management applications for pipeline modeling, leak detection and scheduling is recognized for improving both operational efficiency and profitability. ESI will join Emerson’s Remote Automation Solutions group, which provides oil and gas super-visory control and data acquisition (SCA-DA) and fiscal measurement solutions.
UOP wins Egypt oil refinery
expansion contract
UOP LLC, a Honeywell company, has signed two contracts worth a combined $1.4 B for the expansion of an oil refinery in the Amreya free zone of Alexandria, Egypt. As part of the agreement with state-owned Middle East Oil Refinery (MIDOR), UOP will provide engineer-ing designs and licensengineer-ing. The project aims to increase the refinery’s produc-tion capacity by 60%, from 100 Mbpd to 160 Mbpd.
When the expansion is completed, the annual production capacity of the refin-ery will reach up to 245 Mtpy of butane gas, 1.3 MMtpy of gasoline, 3.2 MMtpy of diesel oil, 570 Mtpy tons of coal and 135 Mtpy of sulfur (S).
CB&I awards Shintech
ethane cracker furnace
coil contract to Manoir
International metal processing group Manoir Industries has been awarded the complete furnace coils contract by CB&I for the Shintech ethane cracker project in Plaquemine, Louisiana.
The furnace components are based on Manoir’s Manaurite high-alloy technol-ogy and are manufactured in its produc-tion center in Yantai, China, with the co-ordination and support of technology and project teams in Pîtres, France. Manoir develops alloys and manufactures high-performance metal components molded and forged for the petrochemical, nuclear, oil and gas, civil engineering, energy, de-fense and construction markets.
The teams work under an international production scheme that guarantees con-sistent manufacturing and quality control processes across all plants in France, the UK, India and China.
Bechtel to quadruple
Queensland LNG
production this year
Bechtel is on track to complete the con-struction of an additional three LNG pro-duction trains on Curtis Island by the end of 2015, quadrupling Queensland’s LNG production. The company is constructing the state’s first three LNG plants, the first in the world to convert commercial quan-tities of coal seam gas into a liquid form
FIG. 3. Bechtel construction at Australia’s Curtis Island LNG complex.
FIG. 2. Evergas has taken delivery of a Dragon-class vessel powered by a Wärtsilä propulsion solution.
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ready for export. At full capacity, the three Curtis Island projects will produce a com-bined 25 metric MMtpy of LNG.
When complete, the operators of the plants—Queensland Curtis LNG (BG Group), GLNG Plant Project (Santos, Petronas, Total and KOGAS) and Aus-tralia Pacific LNG (ConocoPhillips)— will produce the commodity for export to their global customers. Six production trains (FIG. 3) will be operational when
Bechtel hands over the LNG plants to the owner teams for long-term operation.
Queensland Curtis LNG Train 1 has been producing LNG since December 2014, and Bechtel is now working on de-livering the second train for that project. Concurrently, Bechtel teams on the GLNG and Australia Pacific LNG plants recently introduced gas into their systems and be-gan producing their own power as part of commissioning the first of two production
trains on each site. The second production trains on each of these projects are expect-ed to be operational in early 2016.
US approves non-FTA
LNG exports from
Alaska project
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has sanctioned the export of LNG from a plant on the Kenai Peninsula to countries that do not have a free trade agreement (FTA) with the US.
The agreement calls for the export of up to 2.55 Bcfd of gas for 30 years, or over 3% of US gas supply, opening up strand-ed natural gas on Alaska’s North Slope to global markets following a growing list of other projects already making moves in that direction.
The project, estimated to cost $45 B–$65 B, would include an 800-mi pipeline to transport gas from Alaska’s northern reaches to Nikiski on the Kenai Peninsula, where it would be liquefied for shipment overseas, likely to markets in Asia.
Alaska LNG is being developed by a consortium including affiliates of Exx-onMobil, ConocoPhillips and BP. It is expected to take years to build, and must still undergo an environmental review and a final investment decision.
Jacobs awarded contract
for Singapore VAE
emulsions production plant
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. has been awarded an engineering, procure-ment and construction manageprocure-ment (EPCM) contract from Celanese Corp. for the construction of a vinyl acetate ethylene (VAE) emulsions production plant at Jurong Island, Singapore. With the plant, Celanese will broaden its ca-pabilities throughout the Asia-Pacific region, primarily in the higher-end ap-plications of architectural coatings, building and construction, carpets and paper industries.Under the terms of the contract, Ja-cobs is responsible for the detailed engi-neering and design of the project, includ-ing procurement of major equipment and management of construction services.
Construction is expected to begin by mid-2015, and the unit is expected to be-gin production by the second half of 2016.
Select 152 at www.HydrocarbonProcessing.com/RS
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News
15
NOVATEK signs long-term
LNG contract with Shell
Novatek Gas & Power, a wholly owned trading subsidiary of OAO NO-VATEK, has signed a long-term contract with Shell International Trading Middle East for the supply of LNG from the Ya-mal LNG project (FIG. 4).
The contract stipulates annual supply of approximately 0.9 MMtpy of LNG for more than 20 years from the volumes that Novatek Gas & Power will purchase from Yamal LNG.
OAO NOVATEK, Russia’s largest in-dependent gas producer and the second-largest natural gas producer, is engaged in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons.
Shell acquires land
for ethane cracker
Shell Chemical is in the midst of a multi-year site review that includes envi-ronmental analysis, engineering design studies, evaluation of ethane supply and economic viability.
If built, the facility would include an ethane cracker with a nameplate capacity of 1.5 MMtpy of ethylene; three polyeth-ylene units with a combined production of 1.6 MMtpy; and utilities.
The proposed complex would be the first major US project of its type to be built outside of the US Gulf Coast region in 20 years. Shell says locating the facility close to both supply and markets would reduce economic and environmental transportation costs and provide regional plastic manufacturers with more flexibil-ity, shorter supply chains and enhanced supply dependability.
Shell plans to source ethane feedstock for the complex from the nearby Marcel-lus and Utica shale plays.
KBR, Exelus to license
catalyst technology
KBR has signed an agreement with Exelus to allow KBR to exclusively li-cense Exelus’ solid-acid catalyst (ExSact) for KBR’s solid-acid alkylation technol-ogy (K-SAAT).
Global demand for motor fuels con-tinues to rise, while stricter environmen-tal standards and oxygenate blend
re-quirements for gasoline place a premium on clean-burning fuels, such as alkylate.
The key to the K-SAAT technology is ExSact, a solid-acid catalyst engineered to overcome rapid deactivation limita-tions of solid-acid catalysts and provide superior alkylation performance. The K-SAAT process is adaptive, safe and environmentally benign compared with conventional liquid-acid catalyst process technologies.
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Industry Metrics
MIKE RHODES, TECHNICAL EDITOR
Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201517 US refineries are running at record levels and delaying their
sched-uled 2015 maintenance until 2016 to take advantage of very high mar-gins and demand for refined products, including gasoline. In the Asian market, refinery margins strengthened on the back of higher regional demand amid tightening sentiment due to the maintenance season.
Pr oduction, Bcfd Gas pric es, $/Mcf 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Monthly price (Henry Hub) 12-month price avg. Production M A M F J D N O S A J J M A M F J D N O S A J J M 2013 2014 2015
Production equals US marketed production, wet gas. Source: EIA.
Monthly price (Henry Hub) 12-month price avg. Production
US gas production (Bcfd) and prices ($/Mcf)
Oil pric es, $/bbl 40 55 70 85 100 115 130 Dubai Fateh W. Texas Inter. Brent Blend M A M F J D N O S A J J M A M F J D N O S A J J M 2013 2014 2015 Source: DOE
Selected world oil prices, $/bbl
Global refining margins, 2014–2015*
WTI, US Gulf Arab Heavy, US Gulf Brent, Rotterdam Dubai, Singapore LLS, US Gulf
-5 0 5 10 15 20 Margins, US$/bbl
May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 April 15 May 15
Global refining utilization rates, 2014–2015*
50 60 70 80 90 100 Utilization rates, % US EU 16 JapanSingapore
May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 April 15 May 15
US Gulf cracking spread vs. WTI, 2014–2015*
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Cracking spread, US$/bbl
Prem. gasoline unl. 93 Jet/kero
Gasoil/diesel, 0.05% S Fuel oil, 180c
May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 April 15 May 15
Rotterdam cracking spread vs. Brent, 2014–2015*
Prem. gasoline unl. 98, 10 ppm S Jet/kero Gasoil, 10 ppm S Fuel oil, 1% S -20 -10 10 20 30
Cracking spread, US$/bbl
0
May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 April 15 May 15
Singapore cracking spread vs. Dubai, 2014–2015*
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Cracking spread, US$/bbl Prem. gasoline unl. 92Jet/kero
Gasoil, 50 ppm S Fuel oil, 180 cSt, 2% S
May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Mar. 15 April 15 May 15
Supply and demand, MMbpd
Stock change and balance, MMbpd
Source: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2015.
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1 2013-Q1 2014-Q1 2015-Q1 2016-Q1 Stock change and balance
World demand World supply
Forecast
World liquid fuel supply and demand, MMbpd
* Material published permission of the OPEC Secretariat; copyright 2015; all rights reserved; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, June 2015.
An expanded version of Industry Metrics can be found online at HydrocarbonProcessing.com. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 May-15 April-15 Mar.-15 Feb.-15 Jan.-15 Dec.-14 Nov. -14 Oct.-14 Sept. -14 Aug.-14 July-14 June-14
Source: Hydrocarbon Processing Construction Boxscore Database
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Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201519
Reliability
HEINZ P. BLOCH, RELIABILITY/EQUIPMENT EDITOR
[email protected]Trends from the 2015 AFPM Maintenance
and Reliability Conference
The annual American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) Reliability and Maintenance Conference and Exhibi-tion was held in Austin, Texas, in late May. This conference has been held for a long time. Over the decades, there have been good and not-so-good trends presented at this event, and the 2015 maintenance and reliability conference was no exception. Training. As in previous years, over 200 exhibitors were repre-sented at this conference. Unfortunately, the service providers and their staff outnumbered attendees from operating compa-nies. It was again clear how, to some managers in the hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI), training is a deferrable option. It is assumed that not investing in targeted training will appear neatly on the company’s balance sheet. Conversely, deferred training is a very unhealthy trend if it is sustained over the long term. Stars of AFPM 2015. Fortunately, the 2015 maintenance and reliability event had many presenters and exhibitors deserving of commendations. Two co-presenters from Flint Hills Re-sources (FHR) plants in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota, and Corpus Christi, Texas, conveyed their personal commitment and the company’s consistent leadership model. Their collec-tive norms of behavior are based on shared values and beliefs— a slow but commendable trend. Likewise, FHR doubled down on the company’s commitment to training and sent a sizable group of reliability professionals to attend this conference. Good for FHR! Such actions have a greater impact for employ-ees than clever slogans and press releases.
New trends. Favorable trends are developing in the emergence of service organizations with global experience that is anchored in analytical and implementation tasks. More specifically, com-panies, such as T.A. Cook, can find and explain massive oppor-tunities hidden in an HPI company’s maintenance routines or data. Suitable analyses and comparisons with other locations and competitors can help uncover opportunities that may have re-mained untapped due to a lack of solid proof. The time (or train-ing) may not have been available to properly examine workflow or asset upgrading opportunities in a complex processing envi-ronment. Also, it is difficult to identify and apply benchmarking techniques that were devised for another industry or company.
Shutdown management and work definitions are deserving of accurate data gathering and detailed cost justification. Also, there are elements of risk management (RM) that are frequent prerequisites to turnaround work. Entrusting RM to competent service organizations that can provide all needed and relevant analysis and auditing tasks is a viable action.
In a follow-up review centered on one asset management/ operational excellence provider, this author came away with the impression that sustainable efficiency gains, massive and acceler-ated learning tasks, plus effective management of future process-es and decisions are needed. Working with highly experienced consulting companies and service providers is a favorable action. Such providers were present at the 2015 AFPM Reliability Con-ference and Exhibition. This is an obviously desirable trend. Program. The 2015 program committee should be praised for selecting an unusually relevant keynote speaker, D. Michael Abrashoff, a former US Navy commander and the author of It’s
Your Ship. He was a navy officer who was assigned to a ship with
very poor performance and very low morale. To drastically im-prove the performance of the ship’s crew, he had to change his own leadership style from the traditional command-and-control model. Captain Abrashoff created a high-performance culture, and it is one worthy of imitation. He encouraged crew members to identify problems when they are still small, and empowered them to take corrective action. Abrashoff ’s program was in sync with FHR. On a similar path, FHR developed and nurtured a culture strongly biased to action. It is the author’s humble opin-ion that it is time for HPI organizatopin-ions to recognize and imitate both FHR and Captain Abrashoff.
Next year’s wishes. The 2016 event will take place in San Antonio, Texas. The optimist in us hopes to hear how other companies joined best-of-class ranks and learn how these orga-nizations took steps toward growth. There is a need to become problem solvers and to mature in status and reliability perfor-mance. We must find and cure root causes of problems instead of just treating the symptoms. An optimistic trend would be that more companies work closely with competent solution provid-ers. Finally, there are merits in training and grooming profes-sionals in both salaried and wage positions. If you are among the very best, then please share your wisdom and experience.
HEINZ P. BLOCH resides in Westminster, Colorado. His professional career commenced in 1962 and included long-term assignments as Exxon Chemical’s regional machinery specialist for the US. He has authored over 600 publications, among them 19 comprehensive books on practical machinery management, failure analysis, failure avoidance, compressors, steam turbines, pumps, oil mist lubrication and practical lubrication for industry. Mr. Bloch holds BS and MS degrees in mechanical engineering. He is an ASME Life Fellow and maintains registration as a professional engineer in New Jersey and Texas.
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©2015 Honeywell International, Inc. All rights reserved.
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NOT LIMITED TO REVAMPS
Revamping with the UOP Renewable Jet Fuel process gives refineries a new income stream with capital costs much lower than building a new unit, but the technology also offers advantages for new refineries. Foremost is that the process begins turning waste feedstocks into renewable fuels right from the start for an immediate return. Compliance costs are also reduced right away. Simply put, whether you wish to increase profits at your current refinery or you’re planning to add a new unit, the UOP Renewable Jet Fuel process will increase production, lower compliance costs and deliver long-term profits that aren’t subject to the wild swings of crude oil prices.
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Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201521
Automation
Strategies
JOSEPH SCALIA, SENIOR CONSULTANT
ARC Advisory Group
Safety lifecycle management challenges
in hydrocarbon processing plants
Although they are mandated by functional and process safe-ty standards, such as ISA-84 and IEC 61511, many automation and safety instrumented system (SIS) vendors to the down-stream hydrocarbon processing industry (HPI) do not provide safety lifecycle management software that extends beyond the initial work performed to commission the SIS logic solver. As a result, in many cases, only the bare minimum safety instru-mented function (SIF) proof testing has been performed for the most critical protective and mitigative functions.
While the mandated functional safety requirements speci-fication (SRS) should provide a description of how safety should be maintained within a process or plant area, ARC Ad-visory Group has observed that most vendors do not support these requirements with an appropriate suite of supervisory software to maintain, enforce and prove compliance. This of-ten puts an unnecessary burden on end users, to comply fully with all functional safety requirements, including the ability to prove compliance.
So, what should end users be thinking about as necessary parts of their safety lifecycle compliance program? For a start, do you use electronic safety lifecycle management tools to help meet traceability requirements, or are you attempting to do this manually? Do you have any tools beyond what you used to perform your initial hazardous operations (HAZOP) and layer of protection analysis (LOPA)? What about your SIS logic solver? Can your current software tools “talk” to each other to share data, or do you frequently have to re-enter the same data into different tools?
Automation suppliers typically offer tools to help owner-operators determine required safety integrity levels (SILs). However, that is where the functionality often ends. While some suppliers offer rudimentary utilities to help trace and document changes to the logic solver programming, most do not offer a full suite of “fully baked” software that meets the other traceability requirements for maintaining safety instru-mentation. Current limitations to most automation suppliers’ solutions require extensive custom integration, which is both costly and time consuming.
Do you know if you are really in compliance? IEC 61511, ISA TR84.00.04, OSHA 1910 and other standards define spe-cific requirements for effective safety lifecycle management. All of these organizations emphasize that being in compliance with safety lifecycle management requirements should extend beyond just proving the compliance of initial site acceptance testing and commissioning of production equipment, control-lers and processes.
This requires identifying and documenting that equipment, controllers and processes are running as designed day after day, week after week, year after year. Processes change, equipment ages and wears, procedures become “culturally blurred,” and peo-ple become complacent, believing the results of their basic safety key performance indicators (KPIs). Historically, this is when the serious “big incident” occurs, with the resulting tragic loss of life and damage to a company’s financial success and reputation.
Since this is a complex problem with potentially serious rami-fications for noncompliance, ARC recommends that owner-operators return to an appropriate “beginning point” to obtain the needed clarity. Start with a thorough review of your existing HAZOPs, the origin of your SIF designs and SIL requirements. Identify the specific real-time and historical data needed to confirm that you are meeting your SIL requirements. Track the status—automatic, manual and bypassed—that represent your control loops and their safety functions. Ask your vendors if they have software that does this for you automatically.
Reread the standards, focusing specifically on the safety life cycle and your current operations. Is your current safety requirements specification comprehensive enough? Does it compel your organization to operate, maintain and verify the re-quired functionalities? Do you understand what data you need to comply with OSHA 1910, IEC 61511 and ISA TR84.00.04, API 14C and OLF 70?
Most importantly, are you doing your periodic safety proof tests? Are you recording all the correct information? Are you ensuring that your knowledge workers are competent, qualified and appropriately certified? Are you keeping electronic or pa-per records of your proof tests for each and every safety instru-mented function in your operation? If so, are you performing everything on time?
If you aren’t aware of and/or keeping records of how of-ten you defer a proof test or compromise a layer of protection against any of the many defined hazards, consider taking ad-vantage of the broader process safety management solutions offered by several consulting and engineering companies with skills and experience in these areas.
JOSEPH SCALIA covers process safety and functional safety for the chemical, oil and gas, power generation and manufacturing industries. He has over 30 years of experience in industrial automation for discrete manufacturing and process control industries. Mr. Scalia has a BS degree in electrical and controls engineering (BSEE) from Kettering University, and is a TÜV-certified functional safety engineer. He has also received formal instruction in software architecture, software modeling, threat modeling and cybersecurity.
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Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201523
Global
SHEM OIRERE
Guest ColumnistInvestment in Egypt’s downstream on the rise
Egypt is adopting a mix of investmentstrategies in refinery upgrades and con-struction of new capacity to meet the na-tion’s target for more high-quality light and middle distillate products and a reduction of transportation fuel imports. Such in-vestments are materializing as the govern-ment becomes more stabilized and the economy shows strong signs of recovery. Demand growth for petrochemicals. The increasing demand for petrochemi-cal products, especially ethylene, and the global shift to cleaner Euro-V-grade diesel are the main drivers for heightened in-vestment in the Egyptian refining sector. Egypt, with total oil production of 680 Mbpd, operates nine refineries with an es-timated combined capacity of 704 Mbpd. It is the largest refining network in Africa, as summarized in TABLE 1.
Egypt’s refining output averages 445 Mbpd, suggesting that its refinery uti-lization is only approximately 63%. In contrast, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the country’s refinery throughput dropped by 28% between 2009 and 2013 “despite growing domestic consumption (forc-ing) Egypt to import petroleum products to make up for the shortfall.”
Imports. Reduction of fuel imports is the focus of $3.7-B investment in up-grades to the Egypt Refining Co.’s Mo-storod refinery in the Greater Cairo area. Approximately $11.7 B was spent on fuel imports in 2013, according to Egypt Central Bank. The project is financed by Qalaa Holdings, previously Citadel Capi-tal, and is expected to be onstream within two years. According to Qalaa Chairman and Founder Ahmed Heikal, the project is fully funded and 50% complete, put-ting it on track to begin production in 2017 as planned. The new facility will receive low-value fuel from Cairo Oil Refinery, operated by Egyptian General Petroleum Corp., and will upgrade the
fuel to higher-value middle and light dis-tillates. Domestic demand for distillates is increasing; the new capacity is aimed at reducing imports.
“At present, demand for diesel and gasoline is rising fast and outstripping domestic supplies,” Heikal said. “The government of Egypt is simultaneously gradually decreasing its sizeable fuel subsidy. Qalaa Holdings and partners saw opportunities for a refining project that would ease reliance on imports and produce cleaner-burning fuels as one of the cornerstones of the country’s energy security policy.” The refining upgrade project will have the capacity to produce 4.2 MMton of refined products, which includes 2.3 MMt of Euro V diesel.
Some of Qalaa’s equity partners in the project include Egyptian General Petro-leum Corp., Qatar PetroPetro-leum Interna-tional, International Finance Corp. and Germany’s DEG. With financial backing from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Nippon Export and Invest-ment Insurance, Export-Import Bank of Korea, European Investment Bank, the African Development Bank and Mitsui & Co., the refinery has already signed a 25-year off-take agreement with Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. at international prices, according to Heikal.
Despite the ongoing global crude price instability, Egypt is planning other new investments at existing refineries to in-crease throughput capacity and upgrade the refinery scheme to yield cleaner fuels with less sulfur content. Egypt produces three crude blends of Suez, Belayim and Western Desert with a sulfur content of 1.4%, 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively.
Topping the list of Egypt’s refinery sector investment is the $1.4-B expan-sion of the Middle East Oil Refinery (MIDOR) to increase production ca-pacity from 100 Mbpd to 160 Mbpd. The refinery plans to complete the ex-pansion by 2017. According to the re-finery’s management, there is high eco-nomic feasibility of the expansions that will increase income by 18% and transfer MIDOR from third- to fourth-genera-tion technology. The MIDOR refinery expansion would boost middle distil-late production, especially diesel, by maximizing utilization rates of existing processing units and upgrading refined products to meet Euro V specifications.
In April, MIDOR signed an engineer-ing, design and licensing contract with UOP LLC, a Honeywell company. UOP had previously provided processing and licensing for eight of MIDOR’s process-ing units, while three other units have
TABLE 1. Egypt’s crude oil refi neries
Refi nery operator Location Nameplate capacity, bpd
El-Nasr Petroleum Co. El Suez 100,000
Cairo Petroleum Refi ning Co. Mostorod (Cairo) 142,000
Alexandria Petroleum Co. Alexandria (El Mex) 115,000
Middle East Oil Refi nery Alexandria (Sidi Kerir) 100,000
Amreya Petroleum Refi ning Co. Alexandria 75,000
Suez Petroleum Processing Co. El Suez 68,000
Assiut Petroleum Refi ning Co. Assiut 50,000
Cairo Petroleum Refi ning Co. Tanta 54,000
Total 704,000
Global
been licensed by Mannesmann KTI and Bechtel Corp. With the new expansion, this refinery will increase product output to 245 Mton of butane gas, 1.3 MMton of gasoline, 3.2 MMton of diesel, 570 Mton of coke and 135 Mton of sulfur, accord-ing to Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources.
Optimistic outlook. Both the ongoing and planned refinery projects in Egypt
come at a time when market analyst Busi-ness Monitor International (BMI) has predicted growth in both upstream and downstream investments in the country’s hydrocarbon sector, particularly in the petrochemical industry. However, delays in bringing the announced projects on-line are highly probable due to problems in tapping natural gas resources. “Gas shortages are plaguing the petrochemi-cals and chemical fertilizer sectors,”
ac-cording to BMI’s Egypt Petrochemicals
Report Q1 2015.
London-based analysts estimate Egypt’s present ethylene demand at 500 Mtpy. This volume is needed to sustain downstream production, despite the pre-vious year’s output falling below produc-tion targets.
Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Co. (Ethydco) is likely to commission its olefins facility this year with the capacity to produce 400 Mtpy of ethylene when a consortium of Japan’s Toyo Engineering Corp. and Egypt’s Engineering for the Pe-troleum and Process Industries (Enppi) completes construction of a polyethylene (PE) plant in Alexandria.
More petrochemical capacity is also anticipated in 2019. For example, Car-bon Holdings has commissioned its $6.8-B petrochemical plant at Ain Sokhna. Developers believe this facility will yield 1.35 MMtpy of PE as supported by the 900-Mty olefins cracker.
Continent leader. Egypt is the largest non-OPEC producer in Africa and the largest oil consumer on the continent. This nation accounts for 20% of the con-tinent’s total refined product consump-tion. Likewise, Egypt has been grappling with oil and gas subsidies that hit an all-time high of $26 B in 2012. The govern-ment of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi wants to phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2019, thus narrowing the state’s bud-get and encouraging investments in the country’s hydrocarbon sector.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that Egypt realizes that the en-ergy sector reforms and increased invest-ments are critical to reducing energy sup-ply bottlenecks, raising potential growth and increasing exports. However, despite growing interest in private investment in oil, the IMF says that the willingness of investors to commit resources may be re-duced by recent falls in oil prices.
SHEM OIRERE has reported widely on the business beat for Kenyan newspapers The Daily Nation, Kenya Times and The People. He also freelances, reporting extensively on Africa’s energy, construction and chemical industries for various international publications. He graduated from journalism school in London.
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Hydrocarbon Processing | JULY 201525
Petrochemicals
SHEENA MARTIN
Contributing EditorHigher international sales boost 2015 earnings
above forecast for many chemical leaders
Raw materials costs continue to stay low in the US thanks to the shale boom, but the global decline in oil markets has eroded selling prices for many of the nation’s domestic chemicals and plastics producers.
As it turns out, a high raw volume of sales to Asia and Europe has been the saving grace for chemical companies in 2015, as the cost advantages from US-sourced ethane and propane remain strong. Thus far, 2015 earnings reports for most of the industry have come in ahead of analyst expectations, with many leaders pointing to rising international volumes offsetting weaker prices.
“The oil market is projected to be more favorable behind growing global demand,” Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris said during his company’s earnings call, although he warned of economic uncertainty later in the year.
Asian sales rise. During the first quarter, Dow noted that chemicals demand rose internationally, with a 5% boost in emerging markets. Additionally, Dow said demand jumped an encouraging 10% in its “greater China” business, buoyed by a longer-than-normal Chinese New Year. Heavy restocking from the end of March and through May was another encour-aging factor.
Elsewhere, Huntsman and LyondellBasell also say they are benefiting from Asian markets, with CEO Peter Huntsman noting there seems to be a “general softening of market condi-tions” across the board.
At the moment, China’s supply and demand balances ap-pear tight due to a number of plant outages early in the year. Moreover, even more outages were seen in the second quarter, said LyondellBasell CEO Bob Patel.
Patel said these factors “should be positive for product sales in Asia,” and should further tighten the global supply-demand balance for products, such as polyethylene (PE).
US holds cost advantage over Europe. The biggest lin-gering price advantage for the US petrochemical industry is relative to Europe. As producers harvest shale basins, the ongo-ing focus on “wet gas” provides a far cheaper alternative to oil-based naphtha, which European petrochemical makers rely on to make plastics. US petrochemicals, on the other hand, utilize cheaper natural gas liquids (NGL).
LyondellBasell, which has operations extending outside of the US, “produced almost 50% of our ethylene from raw materi-als with the cost advantage to naphtha,” Patel said.
Huntsman also caters to Europe, the company’s largest mar-ket, with higher sales in the continent offsetting lower-than-average selling prices in all regions.
However, the currency exchange involved in increased sales abroad negatively impacted revenues, with Dow and Hunts-man attributing part of their decline in first-quarter net sales to this effect. Meanwhile, Germany-based BASF saw earnings rise, being on the favorable end of the currency dynamics. Looking beyond 2015. The major chemical companies, however, all claimed to be aligning their portfolios for long-term growth and not just for 2015. The volatility of the mar-ketplace, as evidenced by the recent crash in oil prices, made this a strategy of necessity. This strategy consists of a flexible portfolio—allowing for changes in emphasis of market seg-ments based on profits—and innovation, while maintaining work on strategic projects.
To that end, Dow said it continued to improve on its diverse portfolio during the first quarter with its plan to spin off a major portion of its chlor-alkali and downstream derivatives business.
“The transaction will enable us to continue our drive to grow in our higher-value markets as we continue to go narrower and deeper with our portfolio,” said Dow’s chief financial officer, Howard Ungerleider.
BASF, Dow and Huntsman all spoke of research, efforts to innovate and ongoing projects during their quarterly calls to show the oil price environment is not slowing their momentum.
“We will continue to research and develop, as the challenges stemming from an increasing population are far from being re-solved,” said BASF chief executive Kurt Bock. “This is espe-cially true for energy. We are looking for entirely new materials to help make Germany’s energy transition successful.”
BASF is researching battery materials for electric cars to re-duce the price, along with plastic components for the cars to reduce their weight.
Meanwhile, Dow is working on a cogeneration project in Brazil to supply power from eucalyptus biomass to the com-pany’s largest plant in the country. Also, in late April, Dow signed a deal to provide wind-generated electricity to operate its Freeport plant in Texas—the largest integrated chemical complex in the West.
Those projects, of course, are all long-term endeavors— and that may not satisfy some investors who are seeking quicker returns. But the uptick in international volumes has kept current industry profits ahead of expectations, and that’s enough to keep project momentum flowing as we head into the second half of the year.
“It’s a volume and margin story,” said Liveris. “Whether it’s plastics or our mix, we’re maximizing margins and minimizing the effect of the volatility on our inputs.”