The effect of different low-flow hydrologic regimes on water quality

THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA

W A T E R R E S O U R C E S R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E

NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY T H E UNIVERSITY O F N O R T H CAROLINA

at RALEIGH at CHAPEL HILL

124 Riddick Building

North Carolina State University Raleigh, North Carolina, 27607

1 ID10 ; To FKom It flay Concern

PRON : David 11, Howells, D i r e c t o r

SUBJECT:

I n s t i t u t e R e p o r t 5 1 3 0 , 2 6 - " E f f e c t o f Law-Flow Hydrologic Regimes on Water Qua1 i t y Pknagernent "

This s t u d y c o n t r i b u t e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o t h e knowledge of low stream flows and t h e i r e f f e c t on w a t e r q u a l i t y management i n Uorth Carolina. Low-flow d a t a from 37 gauging s t a t i o n s w i t h a t l e a s t 25 y e a r s of r e c o r d s were used i n t h e study,

Stream and e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s a r e u s u a l l y geared t o low flows. T h i s s t u d y f o c u s e s on t h e behavior of both

annual

minimum flows of v a r i a b l e d u r a t i o n and t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of flows i n f i x e d low-flow season, The i n v e s t i g a t o r concludes t h a t t h e d e s i g n and performance s t a n d a r d s based on seven-day, t e n - y e a r low flow a r e e q u i t a b l e f o r most streams, but i g n o r e t h e mark v a r i a b i l i t y between d i f f e r e n t streams. Seven-day a v e r a g i n g was not found t o p r o v i d e

a

t r u e i n d i c a t i o n of many p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s , N u l t i p l e s t a n d a r d s s p e c i z y i n g t h e requirements f o r d i f f e r e n t d u r a t i o n s may be necessary,

The r e p o r t r e v e a l s t h e need f o r a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d approach t o monitoring of w a t e r q u a l i t y c h a r a c t c r i o t i c s . It concludes t h a t

a

d e t a i l e d knowledge of t h e w a t e r q u a l i t y behavior of a few streams may b e more u s e f u l t h a n t h e p a r t i a l knowledse based on a few grab samples on many streams. A

EFFECT OF LOW-FLOW HYDROLOGIC REGIMES ON WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT

J a b b a r

K.

Sherwani

Department of Environmental S c i e n c e s and E n g i n e e r i n g U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a a t Chapel H i l l

March 1 9 7 1

Also P u b l i s h e d a s E,S,E, P u b l i c a t i o n No, 262

The work upon which t h i s p u b l i c a t i o n i s b a s e d was s u p p o r t e d i n p a r t by f u n d s p r o v i d e d by t h e O f f i c e of Water Resources R e s e a r c h , Depart- ment of t h e I n t e r i o r , t h r o u g h t h e Water Resources Research I n s t i t u t e of t h e U n i v e r s i t y of North C a r o l i n a a s a u t h o r i z e d under t h e Water Resources R e s e a r c h Act of 1964,

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The a u t h o r i s i n d e b t e d t o s e v e r a l p e r s o n s f o r t h e a s s i s t a n c e p r o - v i d e d i n t h e c o l l e c t i o n , p r o c e s s i n g a n d a n a l y s i s of d a t a , G, C, Goddard o f t h e

U,

S. G e o l o g i c a l Survey a i d e d i n t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e g a u g i n g

s t a t i o n s i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t u d y a n d was e x t r e m e l y h e l p f u l i n t h e c o l l e c t i o n a n d i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f d a t a , J a c q u e s H, Faigenblum r e n d e r e d v a l u a b l e

a s s i s t a n c e i n s e v e r a l a s p e c t s of t h e s t u d y , The a n a l y s i s o f w e e k l y d a t a o f t h e F r e n c h Broad R i v e r i s b a s e d on t h e work o f Mark E, F o g e l w h i c h h e c a r r i e d o u t a s a p a r t o f h i s m a s t e r " r e p o r t , P r o f e s s o r P e t e r A.

iii

AB S TRACT

The low-flow c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h i r t y - s e v e n g a u g i n g s t a t i o n s i n N o r t h C a r o l i n a a r e a n a l y z e d on t h e b a s i s of d u r a t i o n c u r v e s , t h e o r e t i c a l prob- a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n s a n d t e c h n i q u e s of t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s , The s e n s i - t i v i t y o f f l o w m a g n i t u d e s t o d u r a t i o n a n d r e t u r n p e r i o d i s c o n s i d e r e d , T h e r e i s w i d e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e low-flow b e h a v i o r o f i n d i v i d u a l s t r e a m s , The c o n c l u s i o n i s r e a c h e d t h a t t h e W e i b u l l d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d a u t o r e g r e s s i v e schemes of t h e f i r s t o r s e c o n d o r d e r c a n a d e q u a t e l y r e p r e s e n t a n n u a l

minimum f l o w s , A s t u d y o f w e e k l y f l o w on f o u r g a u g i n g s t a t i o n s r e v e a l s t h a t s o p h i s t i c a t e d , s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t m o d e l s a r e r e q u i r e d t o p r e s e r v e t h e d u r a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l f l o w s ,

The r e l e v a n c e a n d s u i t a b i l i t y o f t h e e x i s t i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y d a t a t o t h e e m e r g i n g n e e d s o f w a t e r q u a l i t y management a r e i n v e s t i g a t e d , The r e l a t i o n s h i p s of w a t e r q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s t o s t r e a m a n d f l o w f a c t o r s a r e c o n s i d e r e d , I t i s o b s e r v e d t h a t f o r e f f i c i e n t w a t e r r e s o u r c e p l a n n i n g d e t a i l e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a r i o u s q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s i s n e e d e d , T h i s would r e q u i r e a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d a p p r o a c h t o t h e moni- t o r i n g o f w a t e r c p a l i t i p a r a m e t e r s .

A p o s s i b l e framework f o r a c o n c e p t u a l w a t e r - q u a l i t y management model i s p r e s e n t e d , A r e a l i s t i c model s h o u l d p e r m i t s i m u l t a n e o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f s e v e r a l f a c t o r s , It i s s u g g e s t e d t h a t d e c o m p o s i t i o n m i g h t make t h e model c o m p u t a t i o n a l l y t r a c t a b l e , S i m u l t a n e o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f f l o w s a n d

TABLE OF CONTENTS

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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SUMMARYANDCONCLUSIONS ,

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1,l O b j e c t i v e s of S t u d y , ,

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20 APPROACHTOSTUDY o 0 o a o o o e o e 0 a e a e a a e o 0 e a 7

2 , l S e l e c t i o n o f S i t e s ,

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2 , 2 Computation of Extreme V a l u e s , , , ,

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2 , 3 R e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h e P e r i o d o f Record , ,

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a , 1 0 2 , 4 Time of O c c u r r e n c e o f Low Flows , , , ,

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1 0 2 , 5 A v e r a g i n g I n t e r v a l s

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a 11 2 , 5 , 1 R i v e r D i s c h a r g e , ,

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1 3 2 , 5 , 2 Q u a l i t y P a r a m e t e r s a n d Waste Loads

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2 0 5 0 3 S u m m a r y , o , , , , . o . . . e

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2,6 A n a l y s i s o f Low Flows , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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3 8 1 G e n e r a l

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3 , 2 I n d e x of Low-Flow V a r i a b i l i t y , , ,

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1 8 3 , 3 Temporal V a r i a b i l i t y ,

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3 , 5 A v e r a g i n g Time U n i t ,

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4. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF FLOWS 0 0 0 0 o a 0 e e a e a e m 29

G e n e r a l o o o o o o ~ ~ o ~ ~ o ~2 9 o ~ ~ o a e ~ ~ ~ ~

Two-Parameter D i s t r i b u t i o n s , , , , , , , ,

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3 0 T h r e e - P a r a m e t e r D i s t r i b u t i o n s

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3 4 E s t i m a t i o n o f P a r a m e t e r s , ,

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Sampling E r r o r s a a a a a 39

Goodness o f F i t T e s t s a a a a 3 9

TABLE OF CONTENTS ( c o n t i n u e d )

P a g e 5. WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION

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5 . 1 A p p l i c a b i l i t y o f W e i b u l l D i s t r i b u t i o n t o Low Flows ,

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4 7 5 , 2 M e a s u r e s of C e n t r a l Tendency , , ,

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C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a * 6 6

6 , TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

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ANNUAL M I N I M U M FLOWS

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6 , 8 Markov a n d A u t o r e g r e s s i v e P r o c e s s e s a 9 0 6 , 8 , 1 P a r t i a l A u t o c o r r e l a t i o n F u n c t i o n * 9 4 6 , 8 , 2 Checks f o r t h e Adequacy o f t h e Models ,

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v i i TBLE OF CONTENTS ( c o n t i n u e d )

Page 7 , 6 , l N e g a t i v e V a l u e o f F l o w ,

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112 7 , 6 , 2 Means and V a r i a n c e s of t h e Weeks ,

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7 , 6 , 4 A u t o c o r r e l a t i o n A n a l y s i s

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a 0 7 Summary a n d C o n c l u s i o n s , a

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8 0 1 G e n e r a l , o o o o o o o o o o o o e o o ~ o e ~ ~ ~ ~ 1 2 1

8 , 2 F a c t o r s A f f e c t i n g Water Q u a l i t y , , ,

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D i s s o l v e d S o l i d s

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Suspended S o l i d s , a

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E c o l o g i c a l P a r a m e t e r s , ,

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90 FRAMEWORK OF A WATER QUALITY MODEL o o m a o o o e a e o 3 o l 5 1

g o l G e n e r a l , o o o o o o . o o o o ~ e o o o o ~ o o ~ o 1 5 1

9 , 2 T i m e D i m e n s i o n , o ~ O O O O O O O e l 5 2

9 , 3 B a s i c I n g r e d i e n t s o f Management Models

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LIST OF FIGURES

Page Mean Monthly Flows f o r t h e French Broad R i v e r a t

A s h e v i l l e 1930-60 ,

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Low-flow D u r a t i o n Curves, Blue Ridge P r o v i n c e , , a

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C o r r e l a t i o n of W e i b u l l P a r a m e t e r s , 8 v s E

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E m p i r i c a l Correlogram, Neuse R i v e r B a s i n , ,

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Yadkin R i v e r B a s i n , , , ,

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E m p i r i c a l Correlogram, French Broad R i v e r B a s i n ,

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E m p i r i c a l Correlogram, M i s c e l l a n e o u s Streams

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Annual Minimum Average 7 C o n s e c u t i v e Day Flows , , , 9 8

D i s t r i b u t i o n of Weekly Flows: O c t , 5-11

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A u t o c o r r e l a t i o n F u n c t i o n s f R e s i d u a l s from R e g r e s s i o n

A n a l y s i s , o o c o o o o o o o o ~ . ~ ~ o ~ o 113 ~ e ~ ~ e o

R e s i d u a l s from Lag 1 R e g r e s s i o n , , ,

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R e s i d u a l s from Lag 2 R e g r e s s i o n ,

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A u t o c o r r e l a t i o n F u n c t i o n s , ,

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M a t e r i a l Balance of a Stream Segment ,

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Components of a Management Model , ,

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Temporal Occurrence of Temperature and Minimum Annual Flow:

Neuse R i v e r a t Goldsboro ,

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T a r R i v e r a t Tarboro 164

Rocky R i v e r n e a r Norwood 165

South Yadkfn n e a r M o c k s v i l l e

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Yadkfn R i v e r a t Wilkesboro ,

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V a l l e y R i v e r a t Tsmotla

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LIST OF TABLES

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2-1 L i s t of Gauging S t a t i o n s

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Page 7-3 Summary of Lag 1 R e g r e s s i o n A n a l y s i s , ,

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SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Low-flow d a t a from t h i r t y - s e v e n gauging s t a t i o n s l o c a t e d i n North C a r o l i n a w i t h a t l e a s t t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s of r e c o r d and w i t h no s i g n i f i - c a n t r e g u l a t i o n were s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s , T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a f a i r l y l a r g e r a n g e i n d r a i n a g e a r e a s , s t r e a m f l o w s , s t r e a m s l o p e s and u n d e r l y i n g r o c k s , S e v e r a l s m a l l s t r e a m s were i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t u d y b e c a u s e i t i s h e r e t h a t t h e c o n d i t i o n s a r e q u i t e c r i t i c a l from t h e p o i n t of view s f w a t e r q u a l i t y and q u a n t i t y , Small s t r e a m s s e r v e a s t h e s o u r c e o f w a t e r

s u p p l y and a s r e c e i v i n g w a t e r s f o r t h e t r e a t e d o r u n t r e a t e d w a s t e s , Low-flow d a t a were a n a l y z e d i n s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t ways: (a) by s t u d y i n g t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of e m p i r i c a l c u m u l a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o r d u r a t i o n c u r v e s , ( b ) by p o s t u l a t i n g s e v e r a l u n d e r l y i n g t h e o r e t i c a l d i s - t r i b u t i o n s , and (c) by t h e t e c h n i q u e s of t i m e - s e r i e s a n a l y s i s assuming l i n e a r a u t o r e g r e s s i v e schemes of t h e f i r s t and second o r d e r , Water q u a l i t y and p o l l u t i o n p a r a m e t e r s p e r t i n e n t to t h e emerging n e e d s s f w a t e r q u a l i t y management were examined and t h e i r r e l a t i o n s h i p t o s t r e a m and f l o w f a c t o r s e x p l o r e d , The r e l e v a n c e and s u i t a b i l i t y o f t h e e x i s t i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y d a t a were c o n s i d e r e d , A p o s s i b l e framework f o r a c o n c e p t u a l w a t e r q u a l i t y management model i s c o r p o r a ~ f n g b o t h t h e q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y a s p e c t s was e v o l v e d ,

Some s t r e a m s show a n e x c e p t i o n a l l y l a r g e v a r i a t i o n between t h e extremes of low f l o w s ; o t h e r s exhibit a m o d e r a t e v a r i a b i l i t y and have r e l a t i v e l y h i g h s u s t a i n e d f l o w s , There i s non-uniformity o f e f f e c t on d i f f e r e n t s t r e a m s 0% a p a r t i c u l a r drought y e a r , The long-term a v e r a g e d i s c h a r g e f o r a s p e c i f i c p e r c e n t a g e of time shows wide v a r i a t i o n i n

x i v

The d e g r e e t o which t h e p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n of low f l o w s h a s t o b e known depends on t h e s p e c i f i c r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e problem b e i n g

s o l v e d . Not a l l problems i n w a t e r q u a l i t y management r e q u i r e c o m p l e t e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n , U s u a l l y , more than one t h e o r e t i c a l p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n e x h i b i t s good agreement w i t h i n t h e r a n g e o f observed d a t a a t a gauging s t a t i o n , There i s no s i n g l e d i s t r i b u t i o n which i s u n i f o r m l y b e t t e r i n a l l c a s e s , The method o f maximum l i k e l i - hood p r o v i d e s t h e b e s t v a l u e s of t h e p a r a m e t e r s and s h o u l d be t h e pre- f e r r e d p r o c e d u r e , The c r i t e r i o n f o r t h e goodness of f i t s h o u l d n o t b e t h e c h i - s q u a r e t e s t which i s n o t d i s c r i m i n a t i n g enough b u t t h e Kolmogorov c r i t e r i o n of maximum d i s c r e p a n c y between t h e e m p i r i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o r on t h e b a s i s of s k e w n e s s - k u r t o s i s v a l u e s , I t a p p e a r s t h a t sampling e r r o r s a r e more c r i t i c a l t h a n t h e c h o i c e of d i s t r i b u t i o n , I n s e v e r a l c a s e s , a t h r e e - p a r a m e t e r d i s t r i b u t i o n p r o v i d e d a b e t t e r f i t t h a n a two-parameter d i s t r i b u t i o n , Streams w i t h e x t r e m e l y s m a l l o r z e r o low f l o w s have t o b e c o n s i d e r e d on a n i n d i v i d u a l b a s i s ,

There a r e s e v e r a l t h e o r e t i c a l a s w e l l a s p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s f o r s e l e c t i n g W e i b u l l d i s t r i b u t i o n a s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n g o v e r n i n g low f l o w s . The s t u d y shows t h a t t h e W e i b u l l d i s t r i b u t i o n c a n l e a d t o r e a s o n a b l y a c c u r a t e r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r p r e d i c t i n g t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of n a t u r a l low f l o w s a t a gauging s i t e , The method of maximum l i k e l i h o o d g i v e s b e t t e r e s t i m a t e s of t h e p a r a m e t e r s t h a n t h e umbel's m o d i f i e d method o f moments which i s i n e f f i c i e n t , North C a r o l i n a s t r e a m s show wide v a r i a t i o n i n t h e v a l u e s o f t h e p a r a m e t e r s , Attempts t o c o r r e l a t e W e i b u l l p a r a m e t e r s w i t h p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s h a v e been r e l a t i v e l y u n s u c c e s s f u l ,

d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e l o c a t i o n and s c a l e p a r a m e t e r s f o r v a r i o u s d u r a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h t h e s h a p e p a r a m e t e r of t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n r e m a i n s r e l a t i v e l y cons t a n t a

The c h o i c e of a n a p p r o p r i a t e t i m e p e r i o d f o r a n a l y s i s and o f t h e sampling i n t e r v a l f o r m o n i t o r i n g i s c o n s i d e r e d i n t e r m s of s t r e a m f l o w , w a t e r q u a l i t y and p o l l u t i o n p a r a m e t e r s , and p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s , The

c o n c l u s i o n i s t h a t t h e r e i s no s i n g l e time p e r i o d t h a t s a t i s f i e s a l l t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s , A comprehensive s t u d y f o r w a t e r q u a l i t y management w i l l r e q u i r e s i m u l t a n e o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n of s e v e r a l t i m e p e r i o d s r a n g i n g from a few h o u r s t o a y e a r , A seven-day p e r i o d i s a good compromise f o r many q u a l i t y and f l o w p a r a m e t e r s , F u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e extreme v a l u e s and t h e weekly a v e r a g e s s h o u l d b e developed f o r t h e p a r a m e t e r s r e q u i r i n g s h o r t e r a v e r a g i n g i n t e r v a l s , Monthly and s e a s o n a l a v e r a g e s do n o t g i v e s a t i s f a c t o r y d e s c r i p t i o n of v a r i a b i l i t y f o r w a t e r - q u a l i t y

management,

The d e s i g n and performance s t a n d a r d s based on seven-day, ten-year low f l o w a r e e q u i t a b l e i n t h e s e n s e t h a t f o x a v a s t m a j o r i t y o f s t r e a m s i n North C a r o l i n a t h i s r e p r e s e n t s t h e f l o w a v a i l a b l e 99 p e r c e n t of t h e t i m e , They, however, i g n o r e a v e r y i m p o r t a n t dimension, The v a r i a b i l i t y of t h i s p e r c e n t i l e i s n o t c o n s t a n t f o r a l l s t r e a m s , I n i n d i v i d u a l y e a r s t h e f r e q u e n c y , magnitude and d u r a t i o n of d e p a r t u r e s from t h e d e s i r e d s t a t e , o r s t a n d a r d , a r r i v e d a t on t h i s b a s i s i s markedly d i f f e r e n t on d i f f e r e n t s t r e a m s , A s t a n d a r d which e q u a l i z e s r i s k of v i o l a t i o n s h a l l h a v e t o t a k e b o t h t h e magnitude and v a r i a n c e of t h e d e s i g n f l o w i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n , Furthermore, a s t u d y o f t h e t i m i n g o f o c c u r r e n c e of seven- day low f l o w s a l o n g w i t h t h e v a r i a t i o n i n e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s ( e , g , , t e m p e r a t u r e ) and t h e changes i n q u a l i t y and p o l l u t i o n p a r a m e t e r s i n a s t r e a m i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e most c r i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o i n c i d e n t w i t h p e r i o d s of minimum f l o w , Seven-day a v e r a g i n g d o e s n o t g i v e a t r u e i n d i c a t i o n o f many p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t s , M u l t i p l e s t a n d a r d s s p e c i f y i n g t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r d i f f e r e n t d u r a t i o n s may b e n e c e s s a r y ,

x v i

The h i s t o r i c a l d a t a was s u b d i v i d e d i n t o e x p l i c i t non-overlapping weekly p e r i o d s f o r t h e t h r e e gauging s t a t i o n s on t h e Neuse R i v e r and f o r t h e French Broad R i v e r a t A s h e v i l l e , The power spectrum o f weekly f l o w s f o r t h e Neuse R i v e r i n d i c a t e s t h a t w e l l o v e r 90 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l v a r i a n c e i s accounted f o r by t h e two harmonics corresponding t o t h e

y e a r l y and h a l f - y e a r l y p e r i o d s , For t h e French Broad R i v e r a t A s h e v i l l e , a second o r d e r a u t o r e g r e s s i v e scheme was a d e q u a t e e x c e p t f o r t h e lower end of t h e low f l o w s , The d u r a t i o n of low f l o w s of t h e h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d were n o t r e p r o d u c e d , There a p p e a r s t o be no a l t e r n a t i v e e x c e p t t o u s e

t h e more s o p h i s t i c a t e d , s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t models f o r t h e g e n e r a t i o n of a sequence of low f l o w s which w i l l p r e s e r v e t h e d u r a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n of t h e h i s t o r i c a l r e c o r d ,

There i s need t o d e s c r i b e and p r e d i c t i n a s y s t e m a t i c f a s h i o n t h e t e m p o r a l v a r i a t i o n of a q u a l i t y c o n s t i t u e n t a t a g i v e n p o i n t on a s t r e a m and i t s s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n a l o n g t h e a x i s of f l o w , The c h a i n t h a t j o i n s t h e low-flow magnitudes t o w a t e r q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s i s composed of many l i n k s , h i g h l y complex and v a r i e d , With v e r y few e x c e p t i o n s , s t r e a m and f l o w c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e v e r y c l o s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e b e h a v i o r of

q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s , D i s s o l v e d s o l i d s , c o n d u c t i v i t y , n u t r i e n t s and r e a e r a - t i o n r a t e s and t o some e x t e n t pH f l u c t u a t e i n v e r s e l y a s t h e r a t e of f l o w , Suspended s o l i d s and t u r b i d i t y show a d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p , There a p p e a r s t o be no r e g u l a r v a r i a t i o n of B , O , D , and c o l i f o r m s t a t i s t i c s w i t h flow. E q u a l l y a s i m p o r t a n t a s t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n s o f a p o l l u t a n t a r e t h e r a t e s of i t s d i s c h a r g e and t o t a l l o a d d u r i n g a s p e c i f i e d p e r i o d of t i m e , These a r e e v i d e n t l y f u n c t i o n s of f l o w r a t e s ,

x v i i

The emphasis i n w a t e r q u a l i t y management h a s s h i f t e d t o n u t r i e n t s , t r a c e e l e m e n t s , t h e r m a l p o l l u t i o n and e c o l o g i c a l impact, The r e l a t i v e s i g n i f i c a n c e of v a r i o u s c o n s t i t u e n t s h a s undergone a change a s w e l l , The c u r r e n t p r a c t i c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o sampling and measurement o f q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s does n o t p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t d a t a t o d e s c r i b e a d e q u a t e l y t h e p h y s i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l r e s p o n s e o f s t r e a m s , There i s need f o r a w e l l - p l a n n e d , improved and more s o p h i s t i c a t e d approach t o m o n i t o r i n g o f q u a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , The d e t a i l e d knowledge o f t h e w a t e r q u a l i t y b e h a v i o r of a few s t r e a m s may b e more u s e f u l t h a n t h e p a r t i a l knowledge b a s e d on a few g r a b samples on many s t r e a m s , The w a t e r q u a l i t y network s h o u l d n o t be r e g a r d e d a s a f i x e d e n t i t y b u t s h o u l d b e m o d i f i e d w i t h t h e s t a t e of knowledge, The complete r e c o r d s t a t i o n s need o n l y b e m a i n t a i n e d l o n g enough t o d e f i n e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n of q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s ,

C h a p t e r l INTRODUCTION

I n N o r t h C a r o l i n a t o d a y , as e l s e w h e r e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , streams h a v e become a n i m p o r t a n t i n t e g r a l component of t h e t o t a l w a t e r s u p p l y , w a t e r p u r i f i c a t i o n a n d w a s t e w a t e r t r e a t m e n t s y s t e m , The t y p e and magni- t u d e of b e n e f i t s d e r i v e d f r o m a s t r e a m depend on t h e q u a n t i t y a n d q u a l i t y o f t h e f l o w s , The e x t e n t o f damages i n c u r r e d i s r e l a t e d t o t h e d e g r a d a - t i o n i n t h e q u a l i t y of i t s w a t e r s ,

I n o r d e r t o d e v i s e a program of w a t e r q u a l i t y management, i t i s e s s e n t i a l t o d e t e r m i n e t h e n a t u r e o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s o f a d r a i n a g e b a s i n as t o t h e i r m a g n i t u d e and s u i t a b i l i t y f o r d i f f e r e n t u s e s , The q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y o f s t r e a m f l o w are l i a b l e t o f l u c t u a t e f r o m day t o day, s e a s o n t o s e a s o n and y e a r t o y e a r , These f l u c t u a t i o n s may be v e r y c o n s i d e r a b l e , A p u r e l y d e t e r m i n i s t i c a p p r o a c h b a s e d on a v e r a g e s i s i n a d e q u a t e t o d e a l w i t h t h e s i t u a t i o n , The h y d r o l o g i c u n c e r t a i n t y a n d o t h e r p r o b a b i l i s t i c c o m p l i c a t i o n s h a v e t o b e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e a n a l y s i s ,

The d e s i g n o f a w a t e r - q u a l i t y management s y s t e m h a s t o b e b a s e d on t h e l o w e r r a n g e s o f n a t u r a l f l u c t u a t i o n s o f r u n o f f , The w a t e r q u a l i t y i s g e n e r a l l y p o o r d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f low f l o w , The minimum f l o w p e r i o d s a r e u s u a l l y t h e most c r i t i c a l , R e s t r i c t i v e m e a s u r e s a r e p r o m u l g a t e d u n d e r e x t r e m e d r o u g h t c o n d i t i o n s , The a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y of a s t r e a m i s r e l a t e d t o i t s low-flow r e g i m e , The s t r e a m and e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s a r e u s u a l l y g e a r e d t o low f l o w s , I n t h i s s t u d y t h e b e h a v i o r o f b o t h t h e a n n u a l minimum f l o w s of v a r i a b l e d u r a t i o n and t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f f l o w s i n f i x e d low-flow s e a s o n a r e examined,

One o f t h e main o b j e c t i v e s of w a t e r - q u a l i t y management i s t o p r e v e n t unwanted p o l l u t a n t e f f e c t s , The c h a i n t h a t j o i n s t h e low f l o w s t o p o l l u - t a n t e f f e c t s i s composed of many l i n k s , f o r example, t h e p h y s i c a l , c h e m i c a l and b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s , w a t e r q u a l i t y c r i t e r i a and s t a n d a r d s , a n d t h e s t a t e o f t e c h n o l o g y of w a t e r and w a s t e w a t e r t r e a t m e n t . An a t t e m p t i s made t o a r r i v e

a t

t h e framework o f a q u a n t i t y - q u a l i t y model, Of n e c e s s i t y , t h e p r o p o s e d model i s e x t r e m e l y r u d i m e n t a r y and l a r g e l y c o n c e p t u a l , C o n s i d e r - a b l e d a t a and r e s e a r c h w i l l b e r e q u i r e d t o make i t o p e r a t i o n a l .

The g o a l s o f w a t e r q u a l i t y management are u s u a l l y e x p r e s s e d i n e x t r e m e l y v a g u e terms, The " h i g h e s t p r a c t i c a b l e q u a l i t y o f w a t e r " a n d

I 1 _{good environment1' n e e d c o n s i d e r a b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n b e f o r e t h e y c a n b e}

made o p e r a t i o n a l and s e r v e as g u i d e s f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a c t i o n and a n a l y s i s . I n v a r i a b l y , t h e r e i s more t h a n o n e p o l i c y which c a n a c h i e v e t h e r e q u i r e d improvement i n t h e q u a l i t y o f a stream, Two t y p e s o f a p p r o a c h e s h a v e b e e n s u g g e s t e d f o r a r r i v i n g a t t h e c o r r e c t c o u r s e of a c t i o n t o b e a d o p t e d :

( a ) o p t i m i z a t i o n m o d e l s , and ( b ) r e c o n c i l i a t i o n of t h e s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t s o f t h e p a r t i e s a f f e c t e d by a d e c i s i o n ,

The o p t i m i z a t i o n models s e e k t o maximize o r m i n i m i z e a n economic o b j e c t i v e e x p l i c i t l y , Every c o u r s e o f a c t i o n i m p l i e s s o c i a l c o s t s a n d b e n e f i t s , The c o r r e c t c h o i c e b a s e d on b a l a n c i n g t h e c o m p e t i n g v a l u e s o f c o s t s and b e n e f i t s t o s o c i e t y are e x t r e m e l y d i f f i c u l t t o a c h i e v e b e c a u s e of i n c o m p l e t e knowledge a t p r e s e n t t o p e r m i t a q u a n t i t a t i v e c a u s e - e f f e c t l i n k between t h e u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e s a n d t h e l e v e l s o f d i f f e r e n t p o l l u - t a n t s , T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f h e a l t h , a e s t h e t i c and e c o l o g i c a l e f f e c t s - - t h r e e main r e a s o n s f o r u n d e r t a k i n g a program of w a t e r q u a l i t y improvement, T h i s k i n d o f a n a l y s i s d i s r e g a r d s s e c t i o n a l and s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t s of t h e l o c a l c o n s t i t u e n t s ,

I n t h e a b s e n c e o f p e r f o r m a n c e measurements a n d c a u s a l i t y r e l a t i o n - s h i p s i n some of t h e v i t a l a r e a s of w a t e r q u a l i t y management, g o a l s m u s t b e e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s of t h e v i c a r i o u s p a r a m e t e r s o f w a t e r q u a l i t y w h i c h

l e n d t h e m s e l v e s t o q u a n t i t a t i v e s p e c i f i c a t i o n a n d measurement, I n

A s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h s t r e a m u s e and p o l l u t i o n e f f e c t a r e w a t e r q u a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s which have t o be p r e s c r i b e d , T h i s assumes t h a t t h e e f f e c t s of v a r i o u s p o l l u t a n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s and e x p o s u r e d u r a t i o n s on humans, a q u a t i c l i f e , and p r o p e r t y and m a t e r i a l s can be d e t e r m i n e d , There i s a h i g h d e g r e e of u n c e r t a i n t y i n t h e u n d e r l y i n g s c i e n t i f i c p r i n - c i p l e s t h a t a r e i n v o l v e d i n e s t a b l i s h i n g t h e s e s t a n d a r d s , N e e d l e s s t o s a y , t h e t e c h n i c a l and economic b a s i s of many s t a n d a r d s can be q u e s t i o n e d ,

D e s p i t e t h i s , t h e need r e m a i n s t h a t t h e r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s must b e pro- v i d e d w i t h q u a n t i t a t i v e y a r d s t i c k s w i t h which t o measure performance and compliance, C o n v e n t i o n a l l y , t h i s i s done by e i t h e r (1) t h e development o f e f f l u e n t s t a n d a r d s which e s t a b l i s h t o l e r a b l e l i m i t s f o r t h e contami- n a n t s , o r ( 2 ) s t r e a m s t a n d a r d s which s p e c i f y t h e l e v e l s of w a t e r q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s f o r d i f f e r e n t s e c t i o n s of a s t r e a m , The i m p o s i t i o n o f t h e s e p o l i c y c o n s t r a i n t s by f i a t p r e c l u d e s a d h e r e n c e t o economic e f f i c i e n c y a s an o b j e c t i v e , T h i s must be e x p l i c i t l y r e c o g n i z e d i n c o n s t r u c t i n g models of w a t e r q u a l i t y management, The development of s t a n d a r d s i n v o l v e s i s s u e s of a b e w i l d e r i n g v a r i e t y and c o m p l e x i t y , There i s a n i n t e r p l a y of t e c h n i - c a l , economic, l e g a l , s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l f a c t o r s , The p r o c e s s of s e t - t i n g s t a n d a r d s i n c l u d e s r e c o n c i l i n g a g r e a t many competing i n t e r e s t s and v a l u e s , Obviously, t h e s e t of p o l i c y c o n s t r a i n t s c a n n o t be a r r i v e d a t

through any r i g o r o u s p r o c e s s of o p t i m i z a t i o n ,

Two a p p r o a c h e s a r e u s u a l l y adopted i n w a t e r q u a l i t y management p l a n - n i n g f o r a r e g i o n : ( a ) s o p h i s t i c a t e d o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s and (b) t h e " b e s t p r a c t i c a b l e means" of c o n t r o l , The f i r s t i s a c o u n s e l of p e r f e c t i o n , and t h e second can s e r v e o n l y a s an e x p e d i e n t , The u s e o f o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s i s based on t h e p r e m i s e t h a t t h e r e i s wide v a r i a t i o n i n n a t u r a l r i v e r c o n d i t i o n s , demographic p a t t e r n s and economic p o t e n t i a l s of d i f f e r e n t a r e a s ; and no uniform, r i g i d s t a n d a r d s can be s e t which a r e v a l i d f o r a group of s t r e a m s , Every s t r e a m s h o u l d b e c o n s i d e r e d i n d i v i d u a l l y and i t s q u a l i t y r e s o u r c e ( f o r example, d i s s o l v e d oxygen) a l l o c a t e d o p t i m a l l y among t h e competing demands, Given t h e e x p e r t i s e of t h e r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c i e s and t h e n a t u r e of t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s , t h i s i s i m p r a c t i c a l i n most s i t u a t i o n s , T h i s approach s h o u l d , however, b e examined f o r t h e i m p o r t a n t d r a i n a g e

I n t h e s e c o n d a p p r o a c h s t a n d a r d s e t t i n g i s c o n s i d e r e d a s a n e x e r c i s e i n t h e a r t o f t h e p o s s i b l e , Most p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l s t a n d a r d s a d o p t e d i n r e c e n t y e a r s h a v e b e e n b a s e d on t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f maximum t e c h n o l o g y o f w a s t e t r e a t m e n t r a t h e r t h a n on t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s t r e a m ( f o r example, i t s a s s i m i l a t i v e c a p a c i t y ) , A c r o s s t h e b o a r d r e q u i r e m e n t o f s e c o n d a r y t r e a t m e n t r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e i n c r e m e n t a l improvement c a u s e d t h e r e b y i s a n example, The r e q u i r e m e n t of t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f t h e " b e s t p r a c t i c a b l e means" f o r c o n t r o l l e a v e s t h e d e f i n i t i o n o f " p r a c t i c a b l e " f l e x i b l e and j u d g m e n t a l , It h a s c o s t i m p l i c a t i o n s t h a t d e f y p r e c i s e d e f i n i t i o n , I n i n d u s t r i a l w a s t e s we h a v e t h e added problem of s e l e c t i n g a " t y p i c a l w a s t e ' b n d a " t y p i c a l p r o c e s s " t h a t w i l l b e c o n s i d e r e d t h e b e s t p r a c t i c a b l e , A l t h o u g h t h i s a p p r o a c h a b s o l v e s t h e r e g u l a t o r y a g e n c y o f h a v i n g t o p r e d i c t f u t u r e demands on streams, t h e r e are many p r o b l e m s i n v o l v e d , W a s t e - t r e a t m e n t p r o c e s s e s do n o t o p e r a t e w i t h u n i f o r m e f f i - c i e n c y e v e n u n d e r c o n s t a n t l o a d i n g c o n d i t i o n s , T h e r e i s a p e r f o r m a n c e v a r i a b i l i t y b e t w e e n p r o c e s s e s , P h y s i c a l - c h e m i c a l p r o c e s s e s can b e

e x p e c t e d t o p e r f o r m w i t h l o w e r v a r i a b i l i t y t h a n t h e b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s . With t h e v a r i a t i o n i n l o a d i n g , t h e r a n g e o f p o l l u t a n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n

t h e e f f l u e n t c o u l d b e s u b s t a n t i a l , For example, i f t h e r a n g e o f w a s t e g e n e r a t i o n from a n u n c o n t r o l l e d s o u r c e v a r i e d f r o m 1000 t o 4000 u n i t s and t h e r a n g e o f p r a c t i c a b l e t r e a t m e n t f r o m 75 t o 95 p e r c e n t , t h e r a n g e i n e f f l u e n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n c o u l d b e b e t w e e n 50 and 1000 u n i t s , We do n o t c o n s i d e r t h i s a p p r o a c h a n y f u r t h e r b e c a u s e i t i g n o r e s i n d i v i d u a l stream c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s ,

1,l Ob-Jectives o f t h e S t u d y

S t r e a m s t a n d a r d s assume some l i k e l i h o o d o f b e i n g v i o l a t e d , I n set- t i n g s t a n d a r d s we c a n n o t p r o v i d e a g a i n s t e v e n t u a l i t i e s - - t h e most c r i t i c a l f l o w c o n d i t i o n s , t h e maximum w a s t e l o a d s , and t h e most u n f a v o r a b l e v a l u e s of t h e e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s , I n t h e s e c i r c u m s t a n c e s e i t h e r t h e s c a l e o f development w i l l b e t o o s m a l l o r t h e s y s t e m w i l l be t o o e x p e n s i v e , There- f o r e , t h e f l o w c o n d i t i o n s s e l e c t e d do n o t r e p r e s e n t t h e a b s o l u t e minimum t h a t c a n o c c u r on a s t r e a m , One o f t h e aims of t h i s s t u d y i s t o show t h a t i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e p e r f o r m a n c e of a w a t e r - q u a l i t y management program i t i s n o t s u f f i c i e n t t o s p e c i f y o n l y t h e mean o r median o f f l o w o r o f a w a t e r - q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r , An e q u a l l y i m p o r t a n t i s s u e r e l a t e d t o t h e l e v e l o f a w a t e r q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r i s how o f t e n c a n one a f f o r d t o f a l l s h o r t o f t h e d e s i r e d s t a n d a r d , The same s y s t e m can a t t a i n a h i g h e r g o a l l e s s of t h e t i m e o r a l o w e r g o a l more o f t h e t i m e , I n N o r t h C a r o l i n a , t h e s t a n d a r d s must be m e t u n d e r a v e r a g e minimum c o n s e c u t i v e seven-day f l o w t o b e e x p e c t e d o n c e i n t e n y e a r s , T h i s r e p r e s e n t s a n a v e r a g e d u r a t i o n d e f i c i e n c y o f t h r e e t o f o u r d a y s p e r y e a r on a n a v e r a g e N o r t h C a r o l i n a s t r e a m ,

The s t o c h a s t i c n a t u r e o f t h e f l o w , t h e w e a t h e r c o n d i t i o n s , a n d e n v i r o n - m e n t a l f a c t o r s ( t e m p e r a t u r e , pH, s u n l i g h t ) and t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of c h e m i c a l a n d b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s g i v e r i s e t o v a r i a t i o n i n s p a c e and t i m e , T h e r e i s an u n e v e n n e s s of t h e f r e q u e n c y d e f i c i t s f r o m p o i n t t o p o i n t on a

s t r e a m , b o t h w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e q u a n t i t y o f f l o w a n d t h e v a r i o u s q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s , As t h e d e f i c i e n c i e s i n q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y o f f l o w are n o t o f t h e same d e g r e e o f i m p o r t a n c e , d i f f e r e n t f r e q u e n c y d e f i c i t c r i t e r i a s h o u l d b e p r e s c r i b e d f o r q u a n t i t y and q u a l i t y o f f l o w . S i m i l a r l y , t h e v i o l a t i o n s of v a r i o u s q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s a r e n o t o f t h e same d e g r e e o f s e r i o u s n e s s , I d e a l l y , one s h o u l d p r e s c r i b e d i f f e r e n t f r e q u e n c y o f d e f i c i t f o r e a c h q u a l i t y p a r a m e t e r ,

The complete d e s c r i p t i o n of low f l o w s i n v o l v e s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of t h r e e p a r a m e t e r s : magnitude, d u r a t i o n , and f r e q u e n c y ( r e t u r n p e r i o d ) . The a c t u a l and p o t e n t i a l damages of s h o r t a g e s i n flow a r e connected n o t o n l y w i t h t h e i r s e v e r i t y b u t a l s o w i t h t h e i r d u r a t i o n and f r e q u e n c y . One of t h e o b j e c t i v e s of t h i s s t u d y i s t o examine t h e p a r a m e t r i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s between t h e s e q u a n t i t i e s ,

The s o u r c e s of u n c e r t a i n t y i n w a t e r q u a l i t y management a r e many. Among o t h e r s one h a s t o c o n s i d e r u n c e r t a i n t y i n n a t u r e , economics and i n

t h e p o l i t i c a l p r o c e s s , D i f f e r e n t t y p e s of u n c e r t a i n t y r e q u i r e d i f f e r e n t methods of a n a l y s i s , I n t h i s r e p o r t we d e a l e x c l u s i v e l y w i t h t h e uncer-

t a i n t y i n n a t u r e , T h i s t y p e of u n c e r t a i n t y a r i s e s from t h e p r e s e n c e of s t o c h a s t i c p r o c e s s e s i n n a t u r e , The h y d r o l o g i c u n c e r t a i n t y i s d e a l t w i t h i n some d e t a i l . The v a r i a b i l i t y i n t h e p h y s i c a l , chemical and b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s i s c o n s i d e r e d o n l y i n r u d i m e n t a r y form, mainly because of l a c k of p e r t i n e n t d a t a , The p r i n c i p a l o b j e c t i v e i s t o e l u c i d a t e t h e components and i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s of a d e s c r i p t i v e w a t e r q u a l i t y model t h r o u g h which t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c o n t a m i n a n t s c o u l d b e approximated i n v a r i o u s p a r t s of t h e s t a t e ,

With r e s p e c t t o t h e l e v e l o f a n a l y s i s , e f f o r t w a s made t o f o l l o w a c o u r s e t h a t i s n e i t h e r t r i v i a l n o r e s o t e r i c , We a r e concerned p r i m a r i l y w i t h t h e v a r i a b i l i t y of i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between p a r a m e t e r s of low

f l o w s

-

magnitude, d u r a t i o n and f r e q u e n c y

-

as between s t r e a m s , between r i v e r b a s i n s and between r e g i o n s , The a c t u a l v a l u e s of f l o w i n t h e

s t r e a m s s t u d i e d , a l t h o u g h i m p o r t a n t i n t h e m s e l v e s , were i n c i d e n t a l t o o u r p u r p o s e , I n d i v i d u a l s t r e a m s i n t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e l o c a l i t i e s s e r v e d a s

i n d i c a t o r s of d i f f e r e n t t y p e s of low-flow h y d r o l o g i e s ; o n l y t h e i r s i m i l a r i - t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s were i r n p o r t n a t , The c o v e r a g e i s n o t comprehensive. S e v e r a l l a r g e r i v e r b a s i n s a r e n o t r e p r e s e n t e d . Only s t r e a m s on which t h e r e i s l i t t l e o r no r e g u l a t i o n of n a t u r a l f l o w s were i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s t u d y , T h i s w a s i m p o r t a n t f o r o u r p u r p o s e , These p r o v i d e b a s e l i n e s o r c o n t r o l s a g a i n s t which t h e impact of demographic, l a n d - u s e , and i n d u s t r i a l changes on w a t e r r e s o u r c e s i n o t h e r l o c a t i o n s i n t h e s t a t e can be

Chapter 2

APPROACH TO STUDY

2 , 1 S e l e c t i o n of S i t e s

Of t h e t o t a l number o f gauging s t a t i o n s on s t r e a m s l o c a t e d i n North C a r o l i n a , t h i r t y - s e v e n s t r e a m s were s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s on t h e b a s i s of t h e f o l l o w i n g c r i t e r i a : (1) f l o w r e c o r d s e x i s t f o r a t l e a s t t w e n t y - f i v e y e a r s , and (2) t h e r e a r e no s i g n i f i c a n t d i v e r s i o n s o r r e g u l a t i o n s s u c h a s t o i n t e r f e r e w i t h t h e normal low-flow p a t t e r n , The l i s t of gauging s t a t i o n s w i t h t h e i r d r a i n a g e a r e a s and l e n g t h of r e c o r d a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 2-1, a r r a n g e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e r i v e r b a s i n s , The d r a i n a g e a r e a r a n g e s from 4 , 7 s q u a r e m i l e s t o 8410 s q u a r e m i l e s . The l e n g t h of r e c o r d v a r i e s from twenty-four y e a r s t o s i x t y - o n e y e a r s ,

2 , 2 Computation o f Extreme Values

A p r e l i m i n a r y a n a l y s i s based on t h e a v e r a g e p e r c e n t a g e s of a n n u a l f l o w s i n i n d i v i d u a l months f o r t h e p e r i o d of r e c o r d showed t h a t i n North C a r o l i n a t h e low-flow p e r i o d was from May t o December, A s a n i l l u s t r a - t i o n , t h e mean monthly f l o w s f o r t h e French Broad R i v e r a t A s h e v i l l e a r e p l o t t e d i n F i g u r e 2-1, The y e a r f o r low-flow a n a l y s i s was t a k e n t o r u n from A p r i l 1 t o March 3 1 t o minimize t h e danger of a d r o u g h t s t a r t i n g i n one y e a r and e n d i n g i n t h e n e x t , The l e n g t h s o f a v e r a g i n g i n t e r v a l s t u d i e s were one, t h r e e , s e v e n , f i f t e e n , and t h i r t y c o n s e c u t i v e days. Moving a v e r a g e s were c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e a p p r o p r i a t e i n t e r v a l from A p r i l

t o March, and t h e l o w e s t v a l u e f o r e a c h y e a r o f t h e r e c o r d was s e l e c t e d , Thus, t h e extreme v a l u e f o r t h e seven-day p e r i o d was t h e minimum a v e r a g e f l o w f o r seven c o n s e c u t i v e d a y s i n a y e a r , i , e , ,

-

= min(Y.1 = min (117)

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j = l , 2,. 0 Q 9 n-6

'min

j J j i = j

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n d e n o t e s t h e d i s c h a r g e on t h e i t h day of t h e y e a r , i

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T a b l e 2-1, L i s t o f Gauging S t a t i o n s

R i v e r B a s i n

Cape F e a r

Neuse

Pamlico

Roanoke

S a n t e e Waccamaw Kanawha F r e n c h Broad

Hiwas see

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Name

Haw R i v e r n e a r B e n a j a

N o r t h e a s t Cape F e a r R i v e r n e a r Chinquapin

C o n t e n t n e a Creek a t Hookerton D i a l C r e e k n e a r Bahama

F l a t R i v e r a t Bahana

L i t t l e R i v e r n e a r P r i n c e t o n M i d d l e C r e e k n e a r C l a y t o n Neuse R i v e r n e a r C l a y t o n Neuse R i v e r n e a r G o l d s b o r o Neuse R i v e r a t K i n s t o n F i s h i n g Creek n e a r E n f i e l d T a r River a t T a r b o r o

Brown Creek n e a r P o l k t o n Drowning C r e e k n e a r Hoffman F i s h e r R i v e r n e a r Copeland Lumber River a t Boardman

R e d d i e s R i v e r a t N o r t h W i l k e s b o r o Rocky R i v e r n e a r Norwood

S o u t h Yadkin R i v e r n e a r M o c k s v i l l e Yadkin R i v e r a t P a t t e r s o n

Yadkin R i v e r a t W i l k e s b o r o Mayo R i v e r n e a r P r i c e

Roanoke R i v e r a t Roanoke R a p i d s L i n v i l l e R i v e r a t Branch

Waccamaw R i v e r a t F r e e l a n d

S o u t h F o r k New R i v e r n e a r J e f f e r s o n B e e t r e e Creek n e a r Swannanoa

B f g L a u r e l C r e e k n e a r S t a c k h o u s e Cane R i v e r n e a r S i o u x

Davidson R i v e r n e a r B r e v a r d F r e n c h Broad R i v e r a t A s h e v i l l e F r e n c h Broad R i v e r a t Bent Creek F r e n c h Broad R i v e r a t Rosman

Ivy

River n e a r M a r s h a l l

J o n a t h a n Creek n e a r Cove C r e e k Noland C r e e k n e a r Bryson C i t y

D r a i n a g e A r e a Sq, M i .

16 8 600 729

4 , 7 1 1 5 0 229

8 0 e 7 1 , 1 4 0 2,390 2,690 5 2 1 1,140

1 1 0

1 7 8 1 2 1 1,220 93.9 1,370 313 2 9 493 2 60 8,410 67.2 706 207

5 , 4 6 1 2 6 1 5 7

4 0 , 4 945 676

67.9 1 5 8

6 5 , 3 1 3 , 8 1 0 4

Y e a r s of Record

1 0 2 , 3

d u a l

R e p r e s e n t a t i v e n e s s of t h e P e r i o d o f Record

There may b e a q u e s t i o n a s t o whether t h e p e r i o d of r e c o r d of i n d i v i - s t r e a m s was a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e sample i n rime. Goddard ( 1 ) shows t h a t t h e a v e r a g e and minimum d i s c h a r g e s f o r t h e p e r i o d A p r i l 1897 t o March 1955 were n o t a b l y l o w e r i n t h e second h a l f of t h i s p e r i o d t h a n i n t h e f i r s t h a l f , The v a l u e s f o r a n n u a l seven-day minimum d i s c h a r g e s a r e r e p r o d u c e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e :

Goddard remarks t h a t t h e downward t r e n d i n s u r f a c e f l o w a t t h e f o u r long- term s t a t i o n s s t u d i e d l e a d s t o t h e c o n c l u s i o n t h a t s t r e a m f l o w t h r o u g h o u t t h e Piedmont and Blue Ridge p r o v i n c e s was n e a r l y 20 p e r c e n t l o w e r d u r i n g t h e l a s t h a l f of t h e p e r i o d , This c o n c l u s i o n does n o t h o l d f o r t h e C o a s t a l P l a i n b e c a u s e t o t a l p r e c i p i t a t i o n a t Tarboro and Goldsboro w a s s l i g h t l y h i g h e r d u r i n g 1925-54 t h a n d u r i n g 1897-1925. He adds t h e c a u t i o n , however,

t h a t i t i s n o t i n d i c a t i v e of a c o n t i n u i n g t r e n d o r even of a permanent change, S t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s on a n a n n u a l minimum f l o w s show t h a t t h e t r e n d i s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t ,

2 , 4 Time of Occurrence o f Low Flows

I n s t u d y i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y of a s t r e m a , t h e t i m e of o c c u r r e n c e of low f l o w s i s q u i t e s i g n i f i c a n t f o r s e v e r a l r e a s o n s :

(1) Many of t h e p h y s i c a l , chemical and b i o l o g i c a l p r o c e s s e s a f f e c t i n g w a t e r q u a l i t y a r e t e m p e r a t u r e dependent, Because of t h e t e m p e r a t u r e d i f f e r e n c e s , a low f l o w i n t h e month of J a n u a r y i s n o t of same c r i t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e a s t h e same mag- n i t u d e i n J u l y o r August,