Networking Break
Sponsored by:
3:00 pm – 3:30 pm
Track D: Claims Technology & Innovation
Forensic Meteorology: How Weather Experts, Advanced Data and Computer Models Are Now Being Used For Claims Investigations and Litigation Support as well as for CAT Risk Management
Howard Altschule
President/Forensic Meteorologist
Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC
Sponsored by:
Forensic Meteorology: How Weather
Experts and Advanced Data Are Being
Used In Insurance Claims and Lawsuits
Howard Altschule
President, Forensic Meteorologist
Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC
About Us:
Forensic Weather Consultants, LLC was Founded in 1999 and is Located in
Albany, New York.
Over the Past 12 Years, Howard Altschule Has Worked on More Than 1,700
Cases from California to New York, Florida, Mexico, the Virgin Islands, Asia
and In Between.
Bachelor of Science in Atmospheric Science from SUNY Albany (May 1995)
Awarded American Meteorological Society Seal of Approval #1186 in 2001
Appointed to Homeowner’s Insurance Panel by NYS Governor (2009)
Invited Guest on The Today Show, MSNBC, CNN, Court TV, Fox Business
News, Geraldo Rivera, WNBC N.Y., Discover Magazine, Discovery Channel
20+ Years Volunteer Firefighter, Fire Investigator & Chairman of the N.K.F.
What is Forensic Meteorology?
The In-Depth Study and Analysis of Past Weather Information,
Meteorological Data and Special Imagery In Order to Determine What
the Weather Conditions Were at Some Time and Place In the Past and
How the Weather May or May Not Have Contributed to an Incident.
Who Uses Forensic Meteorologists?
We are Frequently Called Upon by Insurance Companies (Adjusters,
Claims Reps., SIU’s, etc.), Public Adjusters, Attorney’s (Plaintiff and
Defense), Engineers, Umpires, Roofing Companies, Private
Corporations, Law Enforcement Agencies & Prosecutors.
Common Cases We Are Called To Work On:
Slip and Fall on Snow/Ice Incidents: (Storm in Progress? Pre-Existing Condition?)
Motor Vehicle Accidents: (Hydroplaning, Dense Fog, Smoke, Driving Too Fast, Low Visibility)
Roof Damage: (Strong Winds? Tornado? Tree That Fell for No Reason?)
Flood Cases: (Basement Flooding, Water Leaks, River Flooding)
Criminal Cases: Homicides, Rapes, Alibi Verification, Visibility (Drug Case), DWI (Temperature)
Boating Accidents, Drownings: (Cruise Line Cases, Excursions, Snorkeling, Large Waves)
Shipping Incidents: (Fiber Optic Wire, Fruit, Leather Shoes, Large Waves, Hurricane?)
Hail Damage Cases: (Cars, Roofs)
Hurricane Cases: (Determine Wind Speeds, Embedded Tornado, Wind vs. Waves)
SLIP AND FALL ON SNOW AND ICE CASES
Our Most Common Type of Case in the Northeastern U.S.
The Main Questions Our Clients Want Answered Include:
1. Was there Any Snow or Ice on The Ground at the Time of the Accident?
2. Was there a Storm-In-Progress that Was Actively Causing Accumulations?
3. How Long had the Snow/Ice Been Present on the Ground before the Accident?
4. If There Was a Storm-In-Progress, Was There any Pre-Existing Snow/Ice that
Was being Concealed or Covered Up by the New Snow?
5. If the Storm Had Ended, Was There a Reasonable Amount of Time to Remedy,
Clear or Remove the Snow or Ice Condition?
In 2011, I worked on our first slip and fall on ice case in Tampa, Florida!!!
SLIP AND FALL ON SNOW AND ICE CASES
Note: This is the weather record that many lay people rely upon the most. It is often far from the incident location and not representative. It is a Good Indicator, However, of What Was Occurring at The Airport!!
15 Miles
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 933 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009
***STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL***
NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN COUNTY...
RIDGEWOOD 3.5” 200 AM 1/7 SPOTTER NEW YORK
...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
YONKERS 5.0” 750 AM 1/7 PUBLIC
DOPPLER RADAR: HOW IT WORKS
Doppler Radar has Become One of the Most Important Meteorological Analysis Tools to
Assist in the Investigation of Numerous Types of Cases.
As the radar unit sends pulses of energy into the atmosphere, if any precipitation is intercepted by the energy, part of the energy is scattered back to the radar. These return energy signals, called “radar echoes”, are assembled to produce radar images. The location of the colored radar echoes indicates where
precipitation is falling and the various colors indicate the intensity of the precipitation. Because the parcels are moving, the radar is able to measure the approximate wind speeds and movement of those parcels.
DOPPLER RADAR: WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME
DOPPLER RADAR: JOPLIN, MO TORNADO
DOPPLER RADAR: HURRICANE WILMA
Advances in Technology and Computer Modeling of Observed Weather Data Allows for
Unique Product Development to Serve Weather Sensitive Industries.
Forensic Hurricane
Model
Adjuster Assignment: Assess
the Damage at a Loss Location
When Did the Damage Occur?
Is This Damage Consistent
With the Weather Conditions?
Was the Wind Strong Enough
to Cause the Damage or Was it
“Old”?
Was the Damage Caused by
the Wind or Waves (Surge),
and Which Came First?
How Accurate is Your Data?
Closest Observation Site 13 miles Away)
Most Insured Losses are
Located Far From Wind
Reporting Weather Stations.
Many Weather Stations Have
Missing or Incomplete Data
As A Result Of Power Failures,
Equipment Damage or the
Observer Seeking Shelter.
Terrain, Proximity to the
Ocean & Mesoscale Processes
all Cause Changes in Wind
Speeds Over Small Distances.
Incident Location
FORENSIC HURRICANE MODEL
The Red Sites Have Missing or Incomplete Data Records Due to Power Failure, Equipment Damage or the Observer Seeking Shelter.
The Green and Yellow Sites Have Complete Data Records.
Ft. Lauderdale International Airport
Insured Locations
Mesoscale Wind Model Storm Surge Model
26.093
-80.279 Latitude
Longitude
√ Wind Gust Sustained Wind Surge Height Wave Height Create PDF Create Table Create Graph
√
√
Location: 26.083; -80.279 Max 1-min sustained = 67.1 mph Max 3-sec gust = 95.8 mph
Forensic Hurricane Model
• Storm Data Every 15
Minutes for Any Address,
Any Elevation, Any Floor
of a Building
• Can Be Delivered to
Tablet Devices, Laptops,
Corporate Headquarters
& Mobile Claims Centers
√
√
√
Date/Time
Sustained Wind (mph)
Wind Gust (mph)
Surge Height (feet)
Wave Height (feet)
10/24/05 06:00 34.1 41.4 1.4 3.7
10/24/05 06:15 36.3 43.7 3.7 3..3
10/24/05 06:30 39.6 58.7 8.7 3.8
10/24/05 06:45 38.5 48.3 8.3 4.3
10/24/05 07:00 45.1 51.8 11.8 5.8
10/24/05 07:15 44 55.2 15.2 5.2
10/24/05 07:30 49.5 61.0 11.0 5.0
10/24/05 07:45 51.7 64.5 14.5 6.5
10/24/05 08:00 51.7 65.6 15.6 6.6
10/24/05 08:15 61.6 87.5 17.5 7.5
10/24/05 08:30 67.1 95.8 15.8 7.8
10/24/05 08:45 60.5 65.6 15.6 7.6
10/24/05 09:00 55 70.2 10.2 7.2
32518 Ocean Blvd.
BENEFITS OF THE FORENSIC HURRICANE MODEL
Provides Sustained Wind Speeds, Wind Gusts, Storm Surge Heights Every 15-Minutes for Any Address
Can Be Adjusted for Any Floor of a Building
Adjusters, SIU’s, Field Offices, Claims Reps. Can Obtain The Data Within Days of the Storm Making Landfall
What Were The Highest Wind Speeds? When Did The Strongest Winds Occur? Which Came First, The Winds or The Waves? How High Was the Storm Surge at the Incident Location?
HURRICANE WILMA CASE STUDY (DAVIE, FLORIDA):
ASSIGNMENT: We Were Retained by an Adjuster on Behalf of the Insurance Company.
CLAIM: Homeowner Claimed Thunderstorm Winds Caused Damage on a Specific Date with a Subsequent Prolonged Roof Leak and Water Damage.
ADJUSTER: Adjuster and Construction Expert Found No “Recent” Wind Damage.
The Damage That was There Appeared Quite Old. Suspected “Wilma”.
TASK: What Were The Wind Speeds that Day? Were They Sufficient to Cause Damage? What Were The Wind Speeds During Hurricane “Wilma”?
MY ACTIONS: I Gathered Surface Observations, Coop. Data, NWS Warnings, Statements, Storm Reports and Various Doppler Radar Images (BR, BV and SRV) that Were Zoomed in Over Incident Location. Obtained Forensic Hurricane Report for “Wilma” from 3 Years Earlier.
OUTCOME: MesoNet Data from Davie H.S. (Same Town) Had Peak Winds of 37 MPH.
No Severe Warnings Were Issued. No Storm Reports Received. Forensic Hurricane Report Revealed Winds at Incident Location Were 98.9 MPH.
WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
1. We Will Always Provide You with Accurate Weather Information for Your Cases.
2. We Are Also Looking for Ways to Grow through Product Development and Partnerships.
Expand The Forensic Hurricane Model and Storm Surge Model (U.S. and Internationally)
Develop and Run Short and Medium Range Hurricane Ensemble Model Triage Products
Develop High Res. Model to Warn Clients In Advance About “Significant” Hail or Tornado Threats (Seek Shelter/Safety, Put Car in Garage, Etc.) within a Specific Area. (Overlay GIS Policyholders, Automatic Texts or Emails in a Defined Area?)
Develop A Forensic Smoke Plume Model for Smoke Claims?
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ?
HOWARD ALTSCHULE
FORENSIC WEATHER CONSULTANTS, LLC 1971 WESTERN AVENUE, #200
ALBANY, NEW YORK 12203 518-862-1800
WEBSITE: WWW.WEATHERCONSULTANTS.COM EMAIL: HGA@WEATHERCONSULTANTS.COM
