The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio. Masters Leadership Program October 10, 2012 San Antonio, TX

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The Changing Population of Texas and San Antonio

Masters Leadership Program October 10, 2012

San Antonio, TX

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Growing States, 2000-2010

2000 Population*

2010 Population*

Numerical Change 2000-2010

Percent Change 2000-2010

United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%

Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%

California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%

Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%

Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%

Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%

Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.

2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.

65% (2.8 million) of this change can be attributed to growth of the Hispanic population

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Percent Change Due to

Y

ear* Population

Numerical Change

Percent Change

Natural Increase

Net Migration

1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35

2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6

2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1^st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.

Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011

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0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

2000 to 2001

2001 to 2002

2002 to 2003

2003 to 2004

2004 to 2005

2005 to 2006

2006 to 2007

2007 to 2008

2008 to 2009 International

State-to-State

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates

Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009

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Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity

44%

24% 33%

28%

50% 40%

23% 8% 15%

5%

18% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Net domestic migration

International migration

Total

Other Black Hispanic White

67% of all migrants

Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants 5

between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau

(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)

52% of all migrants were international

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Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Legend

-20 to -45%

-19 to -10%

-9 to -5%

-4 to 0%

1 to 5 % 6 to 20%

21 to 30%

31 to 65%

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Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population

Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center 7

Legend

0-1%

1-2.5%

2.5-3.5%

3.5-5%

5-10%

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8 http://www.forbes.com

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9 http://www.forbes.com

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States with Largest Estimated

Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

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State Estimate

(thousands) Range

California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)

Florida 825 (725 - 950)

New York 625 (525 - 725)

New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625)

Georgia 425 (300 - 550)

Arizona 400 (275 - 500)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).

6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population

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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White

53%

NH Black 11%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White

45%

NH Black 11%

NH Other

6%

Hispanic or Latino

38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

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Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

Unde r 1 ye ar 4 ye ar s 8 ye ar s 12 yea rs 16 yea rs 20 yea rs 24 yea rs 28 yea rs 32 yea rs 36 yea rs 40 yea rs 44 yea rs 48 yea rs 52 yea rs 56 yea rs 60 yea rs 64 yea rs 68 yea rs 72 yea rs 76 yea rs 80 yea rs 84 yea rs 88 yea rs 92 yea rs 96 yea rs 100 to 104…

P op u la tion

Age

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Under 1 year 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 25 years 30 years 35 years 40 years 45 years 50 years 55 years 60 years 65 years 70 years 75 years 80 years 85 years 90 years 95 years 100 to 104 years

Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

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200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

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Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

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Total Population by County, 2010

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Legend co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10 82 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,001 100,001 - 500,001 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 4,100,000

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Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census 17

Legend co48_d00

'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010 -3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 700,000

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Percent Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2000-2010

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Population increase for Texas was 20.6%

during this period

Water

'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010

-20%-0%

1%-10%

10.1-25%

25.1%-50%

50.1%-82%

Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010

'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys

-3 to -0.5 -0.49 to -.001 0

.001 to .5 .51-2.1

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Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

Year

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040

Anglo Black Hispanic Other

20

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas,

2000-2040

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2040 Population P_40

36 - 1000 1001 - 10000 10001 - 50000 50001 - 100000 100001 - 500000 500001 - 1000000 1000001 - 8000000

Projected population by county, Texas, 2040

Source: Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario 21

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Percent Projected Change of Total Population in Texas Counties, 2008-2040

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The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011

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Numeric Increase

1. Harris, Texas 88,452

2. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,451

3. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,127

4. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,331

5. Riverside, Calif. 49,979

6. Dallas, Texas 47,875

7. Orange, Calif. 45,513

8. San Diego, Calif. 44,756

9. Bexar, Texas 41,376

10. Tarrant, Texas 40,776

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains

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Sources: 1980-2010. U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2040: State Data Center 2000-2007 Migration Scenario Projection

Population Growth in San Antonio MSA, 1980-2040 (2000-2008 Migration Scenario)

County 1980 1990 2000 2010 2040

Atascosa 25,055 30,533 38,628 44,911 68,909

Bandera 7,084 10,562 17,645 20,485 26,829

Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 1,991,001

Comal 36,446 51,832 78,021 108,472 203,832

Guadalupe 46,708 64,873 89,023 131,533 248,754

Kendall 10,635 14,589 23,743 33,410 66,124

Medina 23,164 27,312 39,304 46,006 54,466

Wilson 16,756 22,650 32,408 42,918 92,071

Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 2,751,986

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Population Growth in San Antonio MSA by Area, 1980-2040

County 1980 1990 2000 2010 2040

Number of Inhabitants by Area

Bexar 988,800 1,185,394 1,392,931 1,714,773 1,991,001 Others 165,848 222,351 318,772 427,735 760,985 Total 1,154,648 1,407,745 1,711,703 2,142,508 2,751,986

Percent of Population in Area

Bexar 86 84 81 80 72

Others 14 16 19 20 28

Total 100 100 100 100 100

Sources: 1980-2010. U.S. Census Bureau Counts; 2040: State Data Center 2000-2007 Migration Scenario Projection

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Components of Change for San Antonio MSA, 2000 to 2009

County

Population Births-

Deaths

Migration

2000 2009 Change Foreign Domestic

Atascosa 38,628 44,633 6,005 3,168 365 2,727

Bandera 17,645 20,560 2,915 165 130 2,689

Bexar 1,392,931 1,651,448 258,517 140,886 29,689 96,635

Comal 78,021 114,525 36,504 4,473 969 31,179

Guadalupe 89,023 121,432 32,409 6,284 1,532 24,888

Kendall 23,743 34,053 10,310 722 359 9,171

Medina 39,304 44,728 5,424 2,127 171 3,356

Wilson 32,408 40,749 8,341 1,621 46 6,802

Total 1,711,703 2,072,128 360,425 159,446 33,261 177,447

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census Counts (2000); Estimate (2009)

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Percent Population Change, 2000-2010 Bexar County and Texas

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23% 21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Bexar County Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census

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Percent of the Total Population by Ethnicity and Country of Origin, Bexar County, 2010

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58.7%

49.2%

1.1% 0.2%

8.2%

41.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Hispanic or Latino (of any

race)

Mexican Puerto Rican

Cuban Other Hispanic or

Latino

Not Hispanic or

Latino

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Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than very well by state, 2009

0 5 10 15 20 25

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

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Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2009

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Source: American Community Survey, 2009

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009

Percent of the population 5 and over who speak Spanish at home, 2005-2009

Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home

0-10%

10-25%

25-50%

50-75%

75-96%

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Number of the households that are Spanish linguistically isolated, 2005-2009

Percent of households spanish linguistically isolated

Spanlingiso

0-1,500 1,501-5,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 150,000

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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample, 2006-2010

Percent Labor Force Employed in

Professional, Scientific, Management

Occupations, Texas Census Tracts, 2006- 2010

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10 OcMgmtBusSciArts

0-15%

16-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-60%

Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Frio

Hays

National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, iPC

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Percent Labor Force Employed in

Production,

Transportation, and Material Moving Occupations, Texas Census Tracts, 2006- 2010

Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10

Production, transportation, and material moving occupations

0-5%

6-10%

11-20%

21-30%

30-40%

Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Hays

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Percent of the Labor Force Unemployed, Texas Census Tracts, 2006-2010 Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10 UnemployedPCT

0-3%

3.1-7.5%

7.6-12.5%

12.6-17.5%

17.6-45%

NatGeo_World_Map

Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Frio

Hays

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Percent Households Receiving SNAPP

Benefits, Texas Census Tracts, 2006-2010 Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10 SNAPPct

0-5%

6-10%

11-15%

16-25%

26-30% ^Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Hays

National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA,

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Percent of the Population that is African American,

Texas Census Tracts, 2006-2010

Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Frio

Hays

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

tl_2010_48_tract10 NHBlackPCT

0-5%

5.1-10%

10.1-20%

20.1-40%

40.1-65%

NatGeo_World_Map

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Percent of the Population that is Hispanic, Texas

Census Tracts, 2006- 2010

Legend

tl_2010_48_tract10 HispanicPCT

0-20%

20.1-35%

35.1-50%

50,1-75%

75.1-100%

Bexar

Comal

Wilson Kendall

Atascosa Medina

Guadalupe Bandera

Hays

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Educational Attainment in Texas, 2010

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

80.7% 49/50 (tied with CA) Bachelors or greater 25.9% 31

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010. 39

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Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

40

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.

Less Than High School College and Greater

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Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

* Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario 18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.1 28.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.

Degree 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Percent

2000 2040

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$18,000-30,000

$ 30,000-35,000

$ 35,000-40,000

$40,000-50,000

$ 50,000-76,000

Median Household Income by County, 2006-2008

42

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Percent of Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Below Poverty During Past 12 Months,

2006-2008

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 3-Year Sample 2006-2008

5-20%

20-30%

30-40%

40-55%

43

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38

14 23 21 21

25 22

28

11 21 40

76

54

70

64 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Latino Anglo Black Asian Other

None Public Private

Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2008

% Health Insurance Coverage by Ethnic Group and Type, Texas, 2008

44

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19

26

63

25

20

8

64 61

30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Native Naturalized Non-Citizen

None Public Private

Source: American Community Survey Microdata, 2008

% Health Insurance Coverage by Immigrant Status & Type, Texas, 2008

45

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Teen Birth Rate by State, 2010

46 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Rank State Birth rate per 1,000 women ages 15-19

1 Mississippi 55

2 New Mexico 52.9

3 Arkansas 52.5

4 Texas 52.2

5 Oklahoma 50.4

6 Louisiana 47.7

7 Kentucky 46.2

8 District of Columbia 45.4

9 West Virginia 44.8

10 Alabama 43.6

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Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections 47

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Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040

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0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000

Total Latino Anglo

African American Other

Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010

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Demographics and Destiny

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Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: [email protected]

Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.

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