Natural Resource Scarcity:

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Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity:

The Role of Agricultural Technologies

Daniel Mason-D’Croz

IFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division

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Presentation Overview

1- Rationale of the study

2- Summary of methodology 3- Some key results

4- Conclusions and messages

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 Challenges

• Population Growth

• Income growth and changing diets

• Greater competition for resources

• Climate change

 Growing threats to:

• Land • Water

• Environmental preservation • Biodiversity

 Enhanced investment in agricultural research + technological change Game-changer

 Lack sufficient knowledge

• Disaggregated impacts of specific technologies by country and agroclimatic zone

Business as Usual: Challenges and Threats = Continued Scarcity

Higher food prices

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 Global & Regional

 Ten technologies

 Three Crops

• Wheat

• Rice

• Maize

• No-Tillage

• Integrated Soil Fertility Management

• Precision Agriculture

• Crop Protection

• Drip Irrigation

• Sprinkler Irrigation

• Water Harvesting

• Drought Tolerance

• Heat Tolerance

• Nitrogen Use Efficiency

Food Security in a World of Natural

Resource Scarcity technology assessment

Rosegrant et al. 2014

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 Regional

 Four technologies

 Seven Crops

• Wheat

• Rice

• Maize

• Potato

• Groundnut

• Sorghum

• Cassava

• Drought Tolerance

• Heat Tolerance

• Combine Drought and Heat Tolerance

• Crop Protection

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight technology assessment

Robinson et al. 2014

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Modeling Tools

 DSSAT

• Biophysical model - assesses impact of single technology or technology mix

˗ Productivity (yields)

˗ Resource use (water, N losses)

 IMPACT

• Global economic agricultural model - assesses changes in productivity due to technology adoption

˗ Food production, consumption, trade

˗ International food prices

˗ Calorie availability, food security

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Sample Technology Specification:

Drought Tolerance

* In collaboration with Ag. Bio. Engineering Dept., University of Florida

 Improved root volume

• Implemented by increasing root growth factor parameters

 Enhanced root water extraction capability

• Implemented by decreasing “lower limit”

parameter for extractable soil moisture

 For maize, less sensitive to ASI (anthesis to silking interval )

• Implemented by modifying the existing model to have differential ASI as a cultivar trait, driven by shoot growth rate*

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Sample Technology Specification:

Crop protection - Cassava

 Mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) infestation

• Used historical examples from mealy bug infestations and successful biological

control in Africa

 Simulate infestation in Asia

• Large negative shocks throughout the region

 Simulate adoption of biological control (Apoanagyrus lopezi wasps)

• With increasing adoption of biological controls the region nearly returns to pre-infestation levels of productivity

* In collaboration with Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Colombia

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High Resolution of Analysis

Resolution of Grid:

 30 arc-minute, or 0.5 degree (60 km by 60 km)

 95,280 cells globally

 21,385 cells covering crop land extent for three crops simulated in this study

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Management Scenarios

 Business-as-usual scenario

• Country/crop/input system-specific inorganic fertilizer application rate

• Furrow irrigation, where irrigation is adopted

• Sub-optimal planting density & sub-optimal planting window

• Conventional tillage, where no-till is not yet adopted

• Representative, optimal varieties based on agro-ecological conditions

• Current, actual yield loss due to biotic constraints

 Technology scenarios

• Specific representation of each technology

• Area of adoption in 2050 depends on positive yield impact of technology

• Yield Impact (%) in 2050

 Climate change scenarios 2050s

• AR4 GCM results used in Rosegrant el al. 2014

• AR5 GCM results used in Robinson et al. 2014

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Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT)

DSSAT

Technology strategy (combination of different

practices)

Corresponding geographically differentiated yield

effects

IMPACT

Food demand and supply

Effects on world food prices and trade

Food security and malnutrition

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Biophysical Results

Crop Modeling

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Global DSSAT Results

Yield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.

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Argentina DSSAT Results:

Yield change (%), Combined Rainfed and Irrigated – Maize Rice and Wheat – MIROC A1B Climate change - 2050 compared to baseline

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014

Yield Impact (%)

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Benefits include reduced N losses, increased N productivity.

Efficient use of resources:

Change (%) in N Productivity – Maize, Rice, Wheat.

Irrigated vs. Rainfed, 2050 vs. Baseline (DSSAT)

(Compared to the business-as-usual)

29% less nitrogen losses

 28% more N productivity

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Prominent impacts of

Improved Irrigation Technologies

 Increased water savings (less water used)

 Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)

Efficient use of resources :

Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat

(Compared to the conventional furrow irrigation)

28% less water applied

 22% more water productivity

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Rainfed Maize (Africa) Irrigated Wheat (S. Asia) Rainfed Rice (S. + SE. Asia) Rainfed Potato (Asia) Rainfed Sorghum (Africa + India) Rainfed Groundnut

(Africa + SE Asia) Rainfed Cassava (E. + S. + SE. Asia)

Technology adoption may mitigate climate change :

Results from Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Study

Black line represents 2050 yields without climate change with baseline technology

Source: Robinson et al. 2014.

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Results

IMPACT economic model

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Percent Change in Total Production, Developing Countries:

2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline

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Percent Change in Cultivated Area,

Developing Countries & Latin America :

2050 MIROCA1B - Technology vs. Baseline

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Percent Change in World Price, Maize:

2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)

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Percent Change in World Price, Rice:

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Percent Change in World Price, Wheat:

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Change (%) in Population at Risk of Hunger, Developing Countries:

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Key Messages

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Key Messages

 Adoption of this set of technologies

significantly reduces projected food prices in 2050 compared to the climate change

baseline

 The number of people at risk of hunger in

developing countries could be reduced by

10% in 2050 compared to the baseline with

adoption of nitrogen use efficiency or no-till

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Key Messages

 Improved land management (No-till, precision agriculture, integrated soil fertility management)

• Large yield impacts in many regions

 Improved nitrogen use efficient varieties

• Strong yield impacts

• May reduce negative environmental impacts from N leaching

 Heat tolerant varieties

• Reduce projected negative impacts of climate change

 Drought tolerant varieties

• Perform as well as susceptible varieties under no drought stress

• Significant yield benefits under drought conditions

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Key Messages

 Large regional differences in agricultural technology impacts

 Important to target specific investments to specific regions

• Heat tolerance to North America and South Asia

• Drought tolerance to LAC, SSA and SA

• Crop protection to SSA, SA, and Eastern Europe

 In South America heat tolerance, no-till and nitrogen use efficiency have largest increases for maize, Nitrogen use efficiency and isfm for rice, Drip and Precision agriculture for wheat

 In Argentina, precision agriculture, heat tolerance and crop protection offer the largest promise for yield increase

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Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity:

The Role of Agricultural Technologies

We find strong positive food security impacts for almost all the agricultural technologies studied---but getting

technologies to farmers is a

complex undertaking. However, we must act and act fast, as the cost of inaction could be

dramatic for the world’s food-

insecure and our planet’s future.