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Energy Briefing:

Global Crude Oil Demand & Supply

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 6, 2015

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@yardeni.com

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

(2)

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Crude Oil Price 1

World Oil Demand & Supply 2-3

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio 4

Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC 5

Crude Oil Output 6

Oil Demand: World 7

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD 8-9

Oil Demand: G7 10-12

Oil Demand: Europe 13

Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East 14

Oil Demand: Asia 15-16

Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe 17

Oil Demand: Latin America 18-19

Oil Supply: OPEC 20-21

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas 22

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe 23

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East 24

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia 25

Oil Supply: Big Producers 26

Oil Demand 27-28

(3)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170

30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170

11/6

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

(dollars per barrel)

Brent Crude Oil Price

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price

* Nearby futures price.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 1.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

-20 -10 0 10 20 30

11/6

CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICES*

(dollars per barrel)

Spread between Brent and WTI Crude Oil Nearby Futures

* Nearby futures price.

Source: Haver Analytics.

yardeni.com

Figure 2.

Crude Oil Price

(4)

Figure 3.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 66

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

Sep (million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Source of Data

Oil Market Intelligence (OMI) US Department of Energy (DOE)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 66

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94

96

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Sep

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Supply (DOE) Oil Demand (OMI)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

Sep (million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Supply (OMI) Oil Demand (OMI)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Department of Energy.

*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.

yardeni.com

World Oil Demand & Supply

(5)

Figure 4.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 66

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

WORLD CRUDE OIL SUPPLY*

Sep (million barrels per day)

Source of Data

Oil Market Intelligence (OMI) US Department of Energy (DOE)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 60

65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Sep

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day)

Supply (DOE) Oil Demand (OMI)

yardeni.com

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Sep

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND & SUPPLY*

(million barrels per day)

Supply (OMI) Oil Demand (OMI)

*Supply and demand data are not strictly comparable since they are based on different sources and on estimates.

yardeni.com

World Oil Demand & Supply

(6)

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12

1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12

Sep

WORLD CRUDE

OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO*

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average of world crude supply Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 5.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-75 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135

1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07

Sep

WORLD CRUDE OIL DEMAND/SUPPLY RATIO & BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**

(yearly percent change) Oil Demand/Supply Ratio*

* 12-month average of world crude oil demand as a ratio of 12-month average world crude supply.

** Nearby futures price.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence and Financial Times.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Oil Demand/Supply Ratio

(7)

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58

24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58

Sep

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (OMI Data)

Sep (million barrels per day)

Non-OPEC (56.9)

OPEC (39.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 25 35 45 55 65

15 25 35 45 55 65

Apr Apr

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC & NON-OPEC (DOE Data)

(million barrels per day)

Non-OPEC

Total OPEC

Source: US Department of Energy.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.

Oil Supply: OPEC & Non-OPEC

(8)

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40

12 16 20 24 28 32 36

40

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

Sep

(million barrels per day)

OMI DOE

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 9.

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62

38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62

Sep

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: NON-OPEC (OMI vs. DOE data)

(million barrels per day)

OMI DOE

Source: US Department of Energy and Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 10.

Crude Oil Output

(9)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94

96

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Sep

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

World (94.8)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 11.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

World (1.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

Oil Demand: World

(10)

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OECD-34 (46.1) Non-OECD* (48.7)

* Total excluding OECD-34 Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

Sep Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

OECD-34 (0.9) Non-OECD* (2.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

* Total excluding OECD-34.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD

(11)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Sep Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Old World:

US, Western Europe, & Japan New World:

Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change in 12-month average)

Old World:

US, Western Europe, & Japan New World:

Total World Minus US, Western Europe, & Japan

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

Oil Demand: World, OECD, Non-OECD

(12)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 30 32 34 36 38

30 32 34 36 38

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OECD G7* (32.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

* Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, and US territories.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Sep

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

United States (19.4)

Western Europe (13.6)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

Oil Demand: G7

(13)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0

3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Japan (4.3) (million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Canada (2.4)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 20.

Oil Demand: G7

(14)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 12 13 14 15

11 12 13 14 15

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Europe Big 4*

Plus Japan (11.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

* France, Germany, Italy, and the UK.

yardeni.com

Figure 21.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Germany (2.4) France (1.7) Italy (1.3) UK (1.5) Spain (1.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 22.

Oil Demand: G7

(15)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4

4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Other EU* (5.5)

* Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 23.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Other OECD Europe* (2.3)

* Czech Republic, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Slovak Republic, Switzerland, and Turkey.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

Oil Demand: Europe

(16)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0 5 10 15

0 5 10 15

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(millions of barrels per day, 12-month avg)

Asia Excluding China, South Korea, & Japan (13.0)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 25.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0

Sep

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

OPEC*

Middle East

* Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Neutral Zone, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Venezuela.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 26.

Oil Demand: Asia, OPEC, Middle East

(17)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.2

1.6 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 11.2

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Sep

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

China (10.7)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 27.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2

.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Sep

(12-month average, million barrels per day)

India (4.1)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 28.

Oil Demand: Asia

(18)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

.7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Australia & New Zealand (1.2)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 29.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

.4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

South Korea (2.4)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 30.

Oil Demand: Asia

(19)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Former Soviet Union (4.8)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 31.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Eastern Europe* (0.7)

* Albania, Bosnia Herzegovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Former Yugoslav Republic Of Macedonia, Gibraltar, Malta, Romania, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Slovenia, Former Yugoslavia.

yardeni.com

Figure 32.

Oil Demand: FSU & Eastern Europe

(20)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9

2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

Sep

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Latin America* (6.6)

* Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nantilles, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad, Uruguay, Venezuela, Other Latin America.

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 33.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .0 .5 1.0 1.5

.0 .5 1.0 1.5

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Latin America

Excluding Mexico and Brazil (1.3)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 34.

Oil Demand: Latin America

(21)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7

1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Brazil (3.4)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 35.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Mexico (2.0)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.

Oil Demand: Latin America

(22)

Figure 37.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42

Sep

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: OPEC

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .0

.1 .2 .3 .4

Sep

DUBAI

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

ABU DHABI

Sep

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6

Sep

INDONESIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Sep

ALGERIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6

Sep

IRAN

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.5 .7 .9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3

Sep

ANGOLA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .0

.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

IRAQ

Sep

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC

(23)

Figure 38.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

0 1 2 3 4

Sep

KUWAIT

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .2

.3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9

Sep

QATAR

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

-.4 .0 .4 .8 1.2 1.6 2.0

Sep

LIBYA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

6 8 10 12

Sep

SAUDI ARABIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

-.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8

Sep

NEUTRAL ZONE

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2

U.A.E.

Sep

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8

Sep

NIGERIA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 0

1 2 3 4

Sep

VENEZUELA

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: OPEC

(24)

Figure 39.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

CRUDE OIL SUPPLY: NON-OPEC

Sep (million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1.6

2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 4.0

CANADA

Sep

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.2 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.2

Sep

OTHER AMERICAS

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Sep

COLUMBIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

2 4 6 8 10 12

Sep

NON-OPEC NGLs

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6

Sep

MEXICO

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0

Sep

ARGENTINA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 3

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

UNITED STATES

Sep

yardeni.com

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.3 .6 .9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 3.0

BRAZIL

Sep

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Americas

(25)

Figure 40.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sep

EUROPE

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .3

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9

Sep

OTHER EUROPE

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.8 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 7.0

Sep

NORTH SEA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .1

.2 .3 .4 .5

Aug

OTHER NORTH SEA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7

Sep

NORWAY

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 0

1 2 3

Sep

UNITED KINGDOM

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Europe

(26)

Figure 41.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Sep

AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1.0

1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2

Sep

OTHER AFRICA/MIDDLE EAST

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0

Sep

EGYPT

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .15

.20 .25 .30 .35 .40

Sep

GABON

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1

Sep

OMAN

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 -.1

.0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8

Sep

SYRIA

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Africa/Middle East

(27)

Figure 42.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

10 12 14 16 18 20 22

ASIA

Sep

(million barrels per day)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 .3

.4 .5 .6 .7 .8

Sep

MALAYSIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Sep

RUSSIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1.0 1.1 1.2

Sep

OTHER ASIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9

Sep

AUSTRALIA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5

Sep

CHINA

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17

.5 .6 .7 .8 .9

Sep

INDIA

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Oil Supply: Non-OPEC Asia

(28)

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5

5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5

Sep Sep

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA vs. SAUDI ARABIA

(million barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia (10.2) US + Canada (13.5)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5

4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5

Sep Sep

CRUDE OIL OUTPUT: UNITED STATES & CANADA vs. RUSSIA

(million barrels per day)

Russia (10.6) US + Canada (13.5)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.

Oil Supply: Big Producers

(29)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0

6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(million barrels per day, 12-month average)

Europe Big 4* (6.8)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

* France, Germany, Italy, and UK.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change)

China (5.9)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.

Oil Demand

(30)

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Sep

CRUDE OIL DEMAND

(yearly percent change)

India (6.5)

Source: Oil Market Intelligence.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

Oil Demand

(31)

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