US Life Insurance Industry
Overview – Rating Agency View
Agenda
»
Overview
»
Rating Approach – Expected and Stress Scenarios
»
Macroeconomic Forecast
»
US Life Insurance Outlook
3
Ratings Trends in North American Life Insurance Sector
81%
12%
7%
0%
Outlook Distribution
Stable
Negative
Positive
Rating(s) Under Review
0
5
10
15
20
25
Upgrades and Downgrades
Upgrades
Downgrades
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aaa
Aa
A
Baa
Ba
Rating Distribution (58 Groups)
Average IFS Rating
Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3
Average IFS Rating
Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3Average IFS Rating
Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3as of March 31, 2014
Incorporating Expected and Stress into Scorecard (Life
Insurers)
Key Variables
Investment losses
Equity market decline
impact on VA
Access to capital markets
Disruption of distribution
Operating income decline
Liquidity stress – opco
XXX / AXXX solutions
Part 1- Business Profile
Factor
weight
Factor 1: Market Position and Brand
15
Factor 2: Distribution
10
Factor 3: Product Focus and Diversification
10
Part 2 - Financial Profile
Factor
weight
Factor 1: Asset Quality
10
Factor 2: Capital Adequacy
15
Factor 3: Profitability
15
Factor 4: Liquidity and ALM
10
Factor 5: Financial Flexibility
15
Expected and Stress
Scorecards - Projected
5
5
Incorporating Expected and Stress into Scorecard
Financial Strength Rating Scorecard
Traditional Raw Score (1&5 yr
metrics)
Last YE Raw Score (1 yr metrics)
Current YE Expected Case Raw Score (1 yr metrics)
Stress Case Raw Score (1 yr metrics) Last published adjusted score Expected Case Adjusted Score Stress Case Adjusted Score Proposed Adjusted Score
Business Profile Aa1 Aa1 Aa1 Aa2 Aa1 Aa1 A2 Aa2
Market Position and Brand (15%) Aaa Aaa Aaa Aa2 Aaa Aaa A1 Aa1
Relative Market Share Ratio Aaa Aaa Aaa Aa
Distribution (10%) Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 A1 Aa2 Aa2 Baa1 A1
Distribution Control Aa Aa Aa Aa Diversity of Distribution Aa Aa Aa A
Product Focus and Diversification (10%) Aa1 Aa1 Aa1 Aa2 Aa2 Aa2 A1 Aa2
Product Risk Aa Aa Aa Aa Life Insurance Product Diversification Aaa Aaa Aaa Aa
Financial Profile Baa1 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 A2 A3 Ba1 Baa1
Asset Quality (10%) Baa2 Baa2 Ba1 Ba2 Baa2 Baa1 Baa3 Baa1
High Risk Assets % Shareholders' Equity 118.4%/Baa 118.4% 133.3% 150.0% Goodwill & Intangibles % Shareholders' Equity 72.6%/Ba 72.6% 112.3% 130.3%
Capital Adequacy (15%) Baa1 Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Aa3 Baa1 Ba1 Baa1
Shareholders' Equity % Total Assets 5.5%/Baa 5.5% 5.4% 4.4%
Profitability (15%) Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Ba2 A1 Baa2 Ba3 Baa2
Return on Capital (5 yr. avg) 7.1%/A 7.1% 4.0% 1.0% Sharpe Ratio of ROC (5 yr. avg) 93.6%/Ba 93.6% 96.0% 56.0%
Liquidity and Asset/Liability Management (10%) A2 A2 A3 A3 Aa3 A2 Baa1 A2
Liquid Assets % Liquid Liabilities 1.7x/A 1.7x 1.6x 1.6x
Financial Flexibility (15%) A3 Baa3 A3 Baa1 A3 A3 Ba1 Baa2
Adjusted Financial Leverage 28%/A 31.2% 29.0% 33.0% Total Leverage 51.5%/Ba 51.5% 52.1% 39.2% Earnings Coverage (5 yr. avg) 5.4x/A -2.3x 3.6x -1.5x Cashflow Coverage (5 yr. avg) 2.9x/Baa 3.3x 3.0x 1.0x
Operating Environment (0%) Aa Aa Aa Aa Aa Aa Aa Aa
Aggregate Profile A2 A2 A2 A3 Aa3 A1 Baa2 A2
Greater than 3 notch
differential between expected
Macroeconomic Forecast: Continuing recovery with greater
stability & less uncertainty; diminished downside risks
»
Below-trend GDP growth projection
–
GDP Growth: 2.5-3.5% in both ‘14/’15
–
Unemployment: 6-7% in ‘14; 5.5-6.5% in ’15
»
Expectation of slowing rising interest rates
–
Interest rates (10 yr Treasury): rising to 3.2%
at year-end ’14 and to 4.0% at year-end ‘15
»
Downside risks:
–
Disorderly exit from monetary stimulus
–
Fed tapering disrupts emerging markets
–
Flare-up of European debt crisis; deflation
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
US Unemployment Rate
Actual MIS Projected-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
7
Stable Outlook on US Life Industry
»
A gradual increase in interest rates is credit positive for life insurers
–
Portfolio yields will continue to decline, but at a slower pace, diminishing spread compression
–
Profitability and capital generation should be less constrained
»
Macro-economic recovery will support insurance sales
–
Improvement in both GDP growth and unemployment will reduce pressure on household income
and insurance sales (which are discretionary purchase)
»
Greater stability in economy and therefore in financial markets is positive for insurers
–
Higher equity market levels has reduced risks in variable annuity business
–
Also supported results of fee businesses (as AUM has increased)
»
Strong balance sheets (opco and holdco) buffer downside risks
Life Insurers Have Mitigated Impact of Low Interest Rates
»
Strong ALM discipline and lowering of crediting rates mitigate impact
»
Diminished risk of insurers’ yields declining below level of policyholders’ guarantees
»
Diminished risk of balance sheet hits (reserve strengthening, DAC/intangible writedowns)
»
New business re-priced to reflect low rates; legacy inforce business still vulnerable
»
Stretching for yield with incremental allocation to higher risk & lower liquidity assets, but
rising rates will slow down the “hunt for yield”
Source : Moody’s, SNL Financial LC. Contains Copyrighted And Trade Secret Materials Distributed Under License From SNL - For Recipient’s Internal Use Only
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
$ B illio n s9
Weak Economy has Constrained Top-line Growth, but
Strengthening Recovery Should Bolster Sales
Source : Moody’s, SNL Financial LC. Contains Copyrighted And Trade Secret Materials Distributed Under License From SNL - For Recipient’s Internal Use Only
»
Lower unemployment, improving consumer & business confidence, and higher household
income will help increase discretionary expenditures
»
Most life & annuity products are discretionary purchases
»
Recent slowdown in sales growth partly reflects disciplined pricing and capital management
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Policyholder Behavior Remains a Wildcard
Group
Insurance Financial
Strength Rating *
Recent Charge
Comment
AXA Financial
Aa3 Negative
> $1 bil in 2011
Reserve charge due to lower than
expected lapse rates & partial withdrawals
ING US
A3 Stable
> $1 bil in 2011
Reserve charge due to lower lapse rates
MetLife Inc.
Aa3 Negative
4Q12: $752 mil
Lower than expected realized returns over
the life of guaranteed VA policies
Prudential Financial Inc.
A1 Stable
3Q13: $1.7 bil
Largely driven by updated lapse
assumptions based on actuarial review
»
Policyholder behavior is unhedgeable
»
Actual behavior experience is limited for VA living benefits
»
Accounting charges for policyholder behavior assumption changes are very subjective
11
Profitability & Capital Formation Should Improve Given
Impact of Rising Rates & Improving Economy
Source : Moody’s, SNL Financial LC. Contains Copyrighted And Trade Secret Materials Distributed Under License From SNL - For Recipient’s Internal Use Only
»
Profitability remains below pre-crisis levels, but it should be given de-risking and
more appropriate assessment of capital needs for products with guarantees
»
Greater deployment of capital to shareholders & acquisitions expected to continue
»
Earnings & cash flow coverage should continue to improve but from weak starting
point
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Balance Sheets Remain Strong
Source : Moody’s, SNL Financial LC. Contains Copyrighted And Trade Secret Materials Distributed Under License From SNL - For Recipient’s Internal Use Only
»
Strong RBC ratios, but captives and looser
RBC requirements weaken quality of capital
»
Well-diversified & high-quality Investments
- Credit losses back to historical norm (<25
BP)
- Re-risking as companies search for yield
»
Strong liquidity at operating subsidiaries and
holding companies
»
Financial leverage trending down
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Median Risk Based Capital (CAL)
US Treasury 3% Other Gov't 7% Agency MBS 6% Nonagency MBS 6% Corporate Bonds 51% Equity 2% Commercial Mortgage Loans 9% Other Mortgage Loans 2% Real Estate Investments 1% Contract Loans 4% Other Invested Assets 6% Cash 3%
2013 Investment Portfolio
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % o f I n vest ed A sset s (bp )Pretax Realized Bond & Commercial Mortgage Loan Losses
CML
13
De-risked Product Management Strategy Helpful with New
Business, but Legacy Blocks Remain
Strategy\Issue
Interest Rate
Sensitivity
Capital Efficiency
Improve ROE
Earnings/Capital
Volatility
De-emphasis of
guarantee products
x
x
x
x
Shift to capital-efficient
products
x
x
x
Sell more fee business
x
x
x
x
Sell more protection
policies (critical illness,
voluntary benefits)
x
x
x
Expense management
x
Expand hedging
programs
x
x
x
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