ECONOMICS
ECONOMICS
HIA Industry Outlook, Gold Coast
Tim Reardon, HIA Chief Economist
ECONOMICS
Agricultural Exports Solid
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 Dec -2 0 1 0 M a r-2 0 1 1 J u n -2 0 1 1 Se p -2 0 1 1 Dec -2 0 1 1 M a r-2 0 1 2 J u n-2 0 12 Se p -2 0 1 2 Dec -2 0 1 2 M a r-2 0 1 3 J u n -2 0 1 3 Se p -2 0 1 3 Dec -2 0 1 3 M a r-2 0 1 4 J u n-2 0 14 Se p -2 0 1 4 Dec -2 0 1 4 M a r-2 0 1 5 J u n -2 0 1 5 Se p -2 0 1 5 Dec -2 0 1 5 M a r-2 0 1 6 J u n -2 0 1 6 Se p -2 0 1 6 Dec -2 0 1 6 M a r-2 0 1 7 J u n -2 0 1 7 Se p -2 0 1 7 Dec -2 0 1 7 M a r-2 0 1 8 J u n -2 0 1 8 Sep -20 18 Dec -2 0 1 8 M a r-2 0 1 9 J u n -2 0 1 9 Se p -2 0 1 9 Dec -2 0 1 9 M a r-2 0 2 0 J u n -2 0 2 0 Sep -20 20 Dec -2 0 2 0
Rural Goods Exports
Source: ABS 5368.0
ECONOMICS
Resource Exports Strong/Recovering
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 Dec -2 0 1 0 M a r-2 0 1 1 J u n -2 0 1 1 Se p -2 0 1 1 Dec -2 0 1 1 M a r-2 0 1 2 J u n -2 0 1 2 Se p -2 0 1 2 Dec -2 0 1 2 M a r-2 0 1 3 J u n -2 0 1 3 Se p -2 0 1 3 Dec -2 0 1 3 M a r-2 0 1 4 J u n -2 0 1 4 Se p -2 0 1 4 Dec -2 0 1 4 M a r-2 0 1 5 J u n -2 0 1 5 Sep -20 15 Dec -2 0 1 5 M a r-2 0 1 6 J u n -2 0 1 6 Se p -2 0 1 6 Dec -2 0 1 6 M a r-2 0 1 7 J u n -2 0 1 7 Se p -2 0 1 7 Dec -2 0 1 7 M a r-2 0 1 8 J u n -2 0 1 8 Se p -2 0 1 8 Dec -2 0 1 8 M a r-2 0 1 9 J u n -2 0 1 9 Se p -2 0 1 9 Dec -2 0 1 9 M a r-2 0 2 0 J u n -2 0 2 0 Se p -2 0 2 0 Dec -2 0 2 0
Mining Goods Exports
Source: ABS 5368.0
ECONOMICS
Unemployment = 6.4%
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 1 4 -M a r 2 1 -M a r 2 8 -M a r 0 4 -Ap r 1 1 -Ap r 1 8 -Ap r 2 5 -Ap r 0 2 -M a y 0 9 -M a y 1 6 -M a y 2 3 -M a y 3 0 -M a y 0 6 -J u n 13 -J un 2 0 -J u n 2 7 -J u n 0 4 -J u l 1 1 -J u l 1 8 -J u l 2 5 -J u l 0 1 -Au g 0 8 -Au g 1 5 -Au g 2 2 -Au g 2 9 -Au g 0 5 -Se p 1 2 -Se p 1 9 -Se p 2 6 -Se p 0 3 -O c t 1 0 -O c t 1 7 -O c t 2 4 -O c t 3 1 -O c t 0 7 -N o v 1 4 -N o v 2 1 -N o v 2 8 -N o v 0 5 -D e c 12 -D e c 1 9 -D e c 2 6 -D e c 0 2 -J a n 0 9 -J a n 1 6 -J a n Week endingIndexed number of employee jobs and total employee wages, AUS
Source: ABS
ECONOMICS
Loan Deferrals Approaching Pre-COVID
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2 9 -Ap r 6 -M a y 1 3 -M a y 2 0 -M a y 2 7 -M a y 3 -J u n 1 0 -J u n 1 7 -J u n 2 4 -J u n 1 -Ju l 8 -Ju l 1 5 -J u l 2 2 -J u l 2 9 -J u l 5 -A u g 1 2 -Au g 1 9 -Au g 2 6 -Au g 2 -S e p 9 -S e p 1 6 -Se p 2 3 -Se p 3 0 -Se p 7 -Oc t 1 4 -O c t 2 1 -O c t 2 8 -O c t 4 -Nov $ B ill ion s
Value of Loan Deferral April to November 2020
ECONOMICS
0% interest rates till 2024!
-2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
% ann
ua
l
Consumer Price Index
Source: ABS 6401; Reserve Bank of Australia
Headline Weighted Median Housing Component
ECONOMICS
Government Debt: is it a problem?
55.1% forecast peak 2029/30 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 1 9 3 6 -3 7 1 9 3 8 -3 9 1 9 4 0 -4 1 1 9 4 2 -4 3 1 9 4 4 -4 5 1 9 4 6 -4 7 1 9 4 8 -4 9 1 9 5 0 -5 1 1 9 5 2 -5 3 1 9 5 4 -5 5 1 9 5 6 -5 7 1 9 5 8 -5 9 19 60 -61 1 9 6 2 -6 3 1 9 6 4 -6 5 1 9 6 6 -6 7 1 9 6 8 -6 9 1 9 7 0 -7 1 1 9 7 2 -7 3 1 9 7 4 -7 5 1 9 7 6 -7 7 1 9 7 8 -7 9 1 9 8 0 -8 1 1 9 8 2 -8 3 1 9 8 4 -8 5 19 86 -87 1 9 8 8 -8 9 1 9 9 0 -9 1 1 9 9 2 -9 3 1 9 9 4 -9 5 1 9 9 6 -9 7 1 9 9 8 -9 9 2 0 0 0 -0 1 2 0 0 2 -0 3 2 0 0 4 -0 5 2 0 0 6 -0 7 2 0 0 8 -0 9 2 0 1 0 -1 1 2 0 1 2 -1 3 20 14 -15 2 0 1 6 -1 7 2 0 1 8 -1 9 2 0 2 0 -2 1 2 0 2 2 -2 3 2 0 2 4 -2 5 2 0 2 6 -2 7 2 0 2 8 -2 9 2 0 3 0 -3 1 P er c en t o f G DP
Australian Government Public Debt
ECONOMICS
HIA New Home Sales Peak in December
2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 J an -18 Ma r-1 8 Ma y -1 8 J ul -1 8 S ep -18 N o v -18 J an -19 Ma r-1 9 Ma y -1 9 J ul -1 9 S ep -19 N o v -19 J an -20 Ma r-2 0 M a y -2 0 J ul -2 0 S ep -20 N o v -20 J an -21
HIA New Home Sales
ABS Seasonally Adjusted Approvals - Private Sector
S o u rc e : A B S 8 7 3 1 .0 a n d H IA
Private New House Sales - Australia
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)ECONOMICS
HIA New Homes Sales: QLD
500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 J an -18 Ma r-1 8 Ma y -1 8 J u l-1 8 S ep -18 No v -18 J an -19 Ma r-1 9 M a y -1 9 J ul -1 9 S ep -19 No v -19 J an -20 Ma r-2 0 Ma y -2 0 J ul -2 0 S ep -20 No v -20 J an -21
Private New House Sales - Queensland
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)-70.1%
ECONOMICS
HIA New Homes Sales: WA
500 700 900 1,100 1,300 1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 J an -18 Ma r-1 8 Ma y -1 8 J ul -1 8 S ep -18 No v -18 J an -19 Ma r-1 9 Ma y -1 9 J ul -1 9 S ep -19 No v -19 J an -20 Ma r-2 0 M a y -2 0 J ul -2 0 S ep -20 No v -20 J an -21
Private New House Sales - Western Australia
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)Source: HIA New Home Sales Report
ECONOMICS
Housing Finance: 3 record months
3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 De c -20 05 De c -20 06 De c -20 07 De c -20 08 De c -20 09 De c -20 10 De c -20 11 De c -20 12 De c -20 13 De c -20 14 De c -20 15 De c -20 16 De c -2 0 1 7 De c -20 18 De c -20 19 De c -20 20 Num be r of l oa ns
Lending for Construction and Purchase of New Dwellings - Australia
Source: HIA Economics, RBA
ECONOMICS
Building Approvals set for record
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 D e c -15 Ma r-1 6 J un -16 S ep -16 D e c -16 Ma r-1 7 J un -17 S ep -17 D e c -17 Ma r-1 8 J un -18 S ep -18 D e c -18 M a r-1 9 J un -19 S ep -19 D e c -19 Ma r-2 0 J un -20 S ep -20 D e c -20 Num be r
Building Approvals - Australia
Source: 8731
ECONOMICS
Building Approvals
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 De c -09 De c -10 De c -11 De c -12 De c -13 De c -14 De c -15 De c -16 De c -17 De c -18 De c -19 De c -20 Num be rBuilding Approvals - QLD
sa - detached House sa Multi-unit
ECONOMICS
Demographic shift to regions
-15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 S ep -01 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S ep -08 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S ep -15 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S e p -1 9 S ep -20
Capital Cities and Regions, Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater capital cities combined
Rest of state areas combined
ECONOMICS
Last person out of Melbourne …
-10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 S ep -01 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S ep -08 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S ep -15 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S e p -1 9 S ep -20
Victorian Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Melbourne
Rest of VIC
ECONOMICS
Regional Building Approvals Spike
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 D ec -11 M a r-1 2 J u n -1 2 Se p -1 2 Dec -1 2 M a r-1 3 J u n -1 3 Se p -1 3 Dec -1 3 M a r-1 4 J u n -1 4 Se p -1 4 Dec -1 4 M a r-1 5 J u n -1 5 Se p -1 5 Dec -1 5 M a r-1 6 J u n-1 6 Se p -1 6 Dec -1 6 M a r-1 7 J u n -1 7 Sep -17 Dec -1 7 M a r-1 8 J u n -1 8 Se p -1 8 Dec -1 8 M a r-1 9 J u n -1 9 Se p -1 9 Dec -1 9 M a r-2 0 J u n -2 0 Se p -2 0 Dec -2 0 Regi on s C ap ital c ity
Building Approvals, Capital vs Regions
Source: ABS
ECONOMICS
QLD Approvals Regional V Metro
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Dec -1 1 M a r-1 2 J u n -1 2 Se p -1 2 Dec -1 2 M a r-1 3 J u n -1 3 Se p -1 3 Dec -1 3 M a r-1 4 J u n -1 4 Se p -1 4 Dec -1 4 M a r-1 5 J u n -1 5 Se p -1 5 Dec -1 5 M a r-1 6 J u n -1 6 Se p -1 6 Dec -1 6 M a r-1 7 J u n -1 7 Se p -1 7 Dec -1 7 M a r-1 8 J u n -1 8 Se p -1 8 Dec -1 8 M a r-1 9 J u n -1 9 Se p -1 9 Dec -1 9 M a r-2 0 J u n -2 0 Se p -2 0 Dec -2 0 Regi on s Capi tal c ity
Building Approvals, Capital vs Regions
Source: ABS
ECONOMICS
Exit from Sydney continues
-12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 S ep -01 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S ep -08 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S ep -15 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S e p -1 9 S ep -20
New South Wales Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Sydney
Rest of NSW
ECONOMICS
They moved to QLD
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 S ep -01 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S e p -0 5 S ep -06 S ep -07 S ep -08 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S e p -1 3 S ep -14 S ep -15 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S ep -19 S ep -20Queensland Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Brisbane
Rest of QLD
ECONOMICS
Migration - SA
-2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 S e p -0 1 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S e p -0 8 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S e p -1 5 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S ep -19 S ep -20South Australian Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Adelaide
Rest of SA
ECONOMICS
Migration - WA
-4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 S e p -0 1 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S e p -0 8 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S e p -1 5 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S ep -19 S ep -20Western Australian Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Perth
Rest of WA
ECONOMICS
Migration - TAS
-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 S e p -0 1 S ep -02 S ep -03 S ep -04 S ep -05 S ep -06 S ep -07 S e p -0 8 S ep -09 S ep -10 S ep -11 S ep -12 S ep -13 S ep -14 S e p -1 5 S ep -16 S ep -17 S ep -18 S ep -19 S ep -20Tasmanian Net Internal Migration Estimates
Greater Hobart
Rest of TAS
ECONOMICS
Fewer people in apartments
3.7% 2.5% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1.7% 3.5% 0.6% 3.7% 4.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0%
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Canberra Darwin Hobart
Rental Vacancy Rates by City
Dec-19 Dec-20
ECONOMICS
There is nowhere to rent (exp Syd & Melb)
1.9 -5 .1 0.0 -3.0 2.4 1.3 1.2 0.0 6.3 2.9 2.2 0.0 12.2 7.7 3.4 3.1 4.8 -7.8 2.3 -7.6 3 .7 3.9 5.1 7.9 13.5 12.9 0 .0 -2.4 11.1 7.7 3.4 3.1 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it Ho us e Un it
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra
P
erc
en
tag
e
Median Weekly Asking Rents
Source: Domain Data
ECONOMICS
House Prices 2019 and 2020
4.4% -1.8% 5.9% 7.6% 5.0% 10.2% 16.3% 11.0% 3.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.9% 3.3% 4.2% 5.0% 3.5% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0%
Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra
Change in house values to February 2021
Year-on-Year Year-to-Date
ECONOMICS
Hardware spend up 25%
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800 $2,000 $2,200 $2,400 Nov -2 0 1 0 M a y -2 0 1 1 Nov -2 0 1 1 M a y -2 0 1 2 Nov -2 0 1 2 M a y -2 0 1 3 Nov -2 0 1 3 M ay -2 01 4 Nov -2 0 1 4 M a y -2 0 1 5 Nov -2 0 1 5 M a y -2 0 1 6 Nov -2 0 1 6 M a y -2 0 1 7 Nov -2 0 1 7 M a y -2 0 1 8 Nov -2 0 1 8 M a y -2 0 1 9 N ov -20 1 9 M a y -2 0 2 0 Nov -2 0 2 0Retail Trade, $M, 'Hardware, Building, Garden Supplies Retailing' Only
ECONOMICS
Building Approvals: Quarterly
2,974 478 614 5,075 4,153 485 835 7,539 1,549 764 294 2,668 1,562 810 326 2,759 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Greater Brisbane Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Queensland
Building Approvals
Source: ABS Building Approvals
ECONOMICS
Building Approvals: Annual
11,308 2,133 2,738 20,270 12,956 1,727 2,569 23,022 5,992 2,969 1,179 10,558 6,486 1,967 1,124 9,897 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Greater Brisbane Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Queensland
Building Approvals
Source: ABS Building Approvals
ECONOMICS
Renovations
215,392 49,654 57,338 426,821 301,740 57,399 73,289 600,640 5 7 ,3 3 8 49,654 57,338 426,821 73,289 57,399 73,289 600,640 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000Greater Brisbane Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Queensland
Building Approvals
Source: ABS Building Approvals
ECONOMICS
Building Approvals
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
Total Dwelling Approvals - Richmond-Tweed
Source: ABS Building Approvals
Richmond - Tweed 12 mths to: Dec-19 12 mths to: Dec-20
ECONOMICS
ECONOMICS
Shipping containers doubled in price
ECONOMICS
HIA Trades Report
HIA Trades Availability Index by Trade
Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Quarterly Movement in
Availability Bricklaying -0.76 -0.92 -1.13 -0.94 -0.64 -0.96 -0.55 -0.59 -0.64 -0.46 -0.53 -0.51 -0.94 Carpentry -0.42 -0.36 -0.62 -0.46 -0.34 -0.42 -0.03 -0.05 -0.20 0.08 -0.15 0.27 -0.57 Ceramic Tiling -0.53 -0.50 -0.64 -0.64 -0.59 -0.83 -0.38 -0.40 -0.52 -0.24 -0.35 -0.37 -0.68 Electrical 0.03 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.12 -0.09 0.27 0.17 0.23 0.35 0.20 0.27 -0.01 General Building -0.08 0.08 -0.16 -0.18 0.00 -0.28 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.35 -0.23 Joinery -0.15 -0.09 -0.13 -0.23 -0.06 -0.16 0.06 -0.05 -0.05 0.15 -0.01 0.15 -0.21 Landscaping -0.03 -0.22 -0.04 -0.14 -0.03 -0.02 0.36 -0.08 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.29 -0.17 Other Trades -0.37 -0.39 -0.58 -0.24 -0.39 -0.57 -0.29 -0.30 -0.12 0.03 -0.11 0.33 -0.43 Painting -0.18 -0.09 -0.18 -0.15 0.01 -0.11 0.08 -0.02 0.11 0.14 0.06 0.19 -0.25 Plastering -0.40 -0.43 -0.45 -0.37 -0.27 -0.50 -0.02 -0.26 -0.23 -0.10 -0.12 -0.06 -0.32 Plumbing -0.04 -0.04 -0.25 -0.09 -0.01 -0.08 0.10 0.07 0.11 0.24 0.05 0.25 0.00 Roofing -0.31 -0.19 -0.41 -0.34 -0.29 -0.36 -0.11 -0.25 -0.25 -0.18 -0.14 -0.13 -0.46 Site Preparation -0.11 -0.14 -0.24 -0.02 -0.05 -0.15 0.17 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.06 0.22 -0.16 All trades -0.27 -0.25 -0.37 -0.29 -0.20 -0.36 -0.02 -0.13 -0.10 0.03 -0.07 0.12 -0.35
