UNDERWEIGHT
– NEUTRAL OVERWEIGHT+ MONTHLY CHANGE
Maximum change
GLOBAL ASSET CLASSES
We continue to overweight equities; they are cheap compared to bonds and corporate earnings continue to improve.
Bonds
Oil USD EQUITY REGIONS AND STYLES
We are underweight emerging markets as corporate earnings are weak and a US rate hike looms; European and Japanese stocks exhibit the strongest momentum.
Pacific
ValueEQUITY SECTORS We stick to our preference for cheap cyclical sectors such as technology, financials and industrials.
Energy Materials Consumer Disc
IT
FIXED INCOME We are scaling back European high-yield bonds but raise our exposure to European government bonds.
EMD LocalEM Corporate
Stocks set to weather
Greek storms
Pictet Asset Management
Strategy Unit
Monthly euro investor outlook on a 3 month view
HealthcareConsumer Staples
EMD Hard (USD) EUR Government
Industrials Japan Europe
Mid & Small Cap Equities Gold Financials Cash US Emerging Utilities
EUR High Yield Telecoms
EUR Investment Grade
Monthly outlook
Pictet Asset Management
Strategy Unit
Issued 29 June 2015
Asset allocation
Equities remain best option
Uncertainty stalks the markets as the first half of 2015 ends, with Greece’s debt crisis coming to a head and questions remaining over the timing and pace of US interest rate hikes.
But we are sticking to our overweight stance on equities, believing they still have further to run, buoyed by economic recovery in the developed world, central bank stimulus in Europe and Japan, strong M&A activity and an improving earnings outlook.
We remain neutral on bonds: yields have already moved up a lot in recent weeks, with bonds issued by countries in Europe’s periphery looking particularly attractive.
We recognise, however, that the possibility of a stock market correction remains, not least because the outcome of Greece’s crisis is unpredictable after Athens imposed capital controls on June 28.
Nevertheless, fundamentals suggest the broader stock market rally should continue over the medium term and we have not changed our overall outlook or weightings on account of events in Greece.
Business cycle readings indicate the global economy has staged a modest recovery following a setback earlier in the year though these indicators remain below long term averages. This pick-up in activity was largely fuelled by advanced economies, which posted their strongest monthly growth since November and one of the highest levels of activity in 18 months, according to our leading indicator that tracks 10 developed countries. The leading indicator for emerging economies continued to be a drag on the headline figure, however.
The US economic rebound continues apace, with robust retail sales figures testifying to a rise in consumer confidence. Housing also saw a strong recovery with data on building permits and new home sales showing significant improvements.
As this month’s Barometer went to print on June 29, the Greek debt crisis was entering a dangerous new phase with an exit from the euro currency looking increasingly plausible.
Frustrated at the lack of progress in its debt negotiations, the Greek goverrnnent unexpectedly called a July 5 referendum on creditors’ proposals.
Capital controls were duly imposed in a bid to limit withdrawals from banks and restrict transfers of money abroad. The country now looks almost certain to default on a EUR1.5 billion debt payment to the International Monetary Fund, which is due at the end of this month.
Markets were initially left reeling in the wake of the news but losses were far short of those seen during the global financial crisis of 2008-2009.
In the first trading session after Greece announced its capital controls, European equities dropped around 4.5 per cent at the open leaving Germany’s DAX at 11 per cent below its April peak.
Nevertheless, the European market looked to be ending the month flat. In debt markets, meanwhile, 30-year Italian bonds were 9 per cent lower at one point a day after Greece imposed capital controls but later recovered their poise.
The 10-year yield spread between Italian and German government bonds went from 120 basis points to 199 bps before stabilising at 150 basis points, still the highest since November and about double the levels seen in March.
Notwithstanding Greece, the euro was heading into month-end sporting modest gains against the US dollar.
The muted market moves suggest investors believe all-out contagion across other peripheral European markets remains unlikely, particularly given the European Central Bank’s determination to contain any fallout. More broadly, within global stock indices, utilities and mining were the worst-performing sectors, with weak economic prospects in China and other emerging markets depressing raw material prices.
In emerging markets, meanwhile, the focus shifted squarely to China.
An interest rate cut by the Peoples Bank of China failed to revive sentiment towards Chinese stocks which are now in a bear market. The Chinese stock market correction has weighed on Asian emerging markets; it is the worst regional performer over the month to date.
GREEK YIELDS VS EUROPEAN STOCKS - EVOLUTION
Source: Thomson Reutrers Datastream
— 0 — 2 — 4 — 6 — 8 — 10 — 12 — 14 — 16 8000 — 8500 — 9000 — 9500 — 10000 — 10500 — 11000 — 11500 — 12000 — 12500 — 13000 — 06.20 14 07.20 14 08.20 14 09.20 14 10.20 14 11.20 14 12.20 14 01.20 15 02.20 15 03.20 15 04.20 15 05.20 15 06.20 15 Greece 10y bond yield (rhs)
Dax performance Global market overview
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream / JPM and BoA Merrill Lynch
MAJOR ASSET CLASSES
PERFORMANCE: ASSET CLASSES BONDS: ASSET CLASS SPREADS
50 — 60 — 70 — 90 — 80 — 120 — 110 — 100 — 130 — 150 — 140 — — 50 — 60 — 110 — 100 — 90 — 80 — 70 — 120 — 130 — 150 — 140 MSCI Global equities
JPM Global bonds GSCI Index USD 06.20 13 09.20 13 12.20 13 03.20 14 06.20 14 09.20 14 12.20 14 03.20 15 06.20 15 0 — 2 — 1 — 4 — 3 — 5 — — 0 — 2 — 1 — 3 — 4 — 5 EM Hard Currency vs US Treasuries
Euro Investment Grade vs Bunds Euro High Yield vs Bunds
In percentage points 06.20 13 09.20 13 12.20 13 03.20 14 06.20 14 09.20 14 12.20 14 03.20 15 06.20 15
EQUITY SECTOR ROTATION AND CURRENCY PERFORMANCE
GLOBAL EQUITY SECTOR ROTATION:
PERFORMANCE OF CYCLICAL VS DEFENSIVE STOCKS
90 — 100 — 95 — 105 — 110 — 120 — 115 — — 90 — 95 — 100 — 105 — 110 — 120 — 115 US EMU EM JP 06.20 13 12.20 13 03.20 14 06.20 14 09.20 14 06.20 15 09.20 13 12.20 14 03.20 15
PERFORMANCE: CURRENCIES VS USD
90 — 100 — 110 — — 90 80 — 60 — 70 — — 80 — 60 — 70 — 100 — 110 EUR GBP CHF JPY 06.20 13 12.20 13 03.20 14 06.20 14 09.20 14 06.20 15 09.20 13 12.20 14 03.20 15
RISK BIAS INDICATORS
ECONOMIC MOMENTUM PICKS ACROSS DEVELOPED WORLD
BUSINESS CYCLE: WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH REMAINS SUBDUED
G10 LEADING INDICATOR M/M GROWTH
WORLD LEADING ACTIVITY INDEX & REAL GDP GROWTH
EM LEADING INDICATOR M/M GROWTH
WORLD LEADING ACTIVITY SEQUENTIAL GROWTH (M/M)
-0.4 — -0.2 — 0.0 — 0.6 — 0.4 — 0.2 — 0.8 — %m/m EM leading indicator Average (since 99) 05.2013 09.2013 01.2014 05.2014 09.2014 01.2015 05.2015 -0.2 — 0.0 — -0.1 — 0.2 — 0.1 — 0.3 — 0.4 — 0.5 — 0.7 — 0.6 — %m/m G10 leading indicator Average (since 99) 05.2013 09.2013 01.2014 05.2014 09.2014 01.2015 05.2015 -0.3 — -0.2 — 0.2 — -0.1 — 0.1 — 0.0 — 0.3 — 0.4 — 0.5 — 0.6 — 05.2013 09.2013 01.2014 05.2014 09.2014 01.2015 05.2015 %m/m
World leading indicator Average (since 99)
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
%
Leading index (Q/Q annualised) Leading index (Y/Y)
World GDP growth (Y/Y)
-20 — -5 — -10 — -15 — 0 — 10 — 5 — 20 — 15 —
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream
MONTHLY CHANGE Maximum change RISK-OFF – NEUTRAL RISK-ON+
Business cycle Sentiment Liquidity Valuation PAM strategyVALUATION: EQUITY MARKETS AND SECTORS
COUNTRIES AND SECTORS
MSCI REGIONS
EPS GROWTH SALES GROWTH PE PB P/SALES DY
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015E 2015E 2015E
US 1% 12% -2% 6% 18.0 16.9 2.8 1.9 2.0% Europe 2% 12% -1% 5% 16.7 15.7 1.9 1.3 3.3% EMU 23% 13% 4% 4% 16.3 15.3 1.7 1.1 3.0% Switzerland -3% 8% -1% 4% 18.2 17.5 2.6 2.4 3.0% UK -11% 12% -9% 6% 16.4 15.5 1.9 1.3 3.9% Japan 18% 9% 4% 3% 16.1 15.8 1.4 0.9 1.8% EM 5% 13% 0% 8% 12.7 11.9 1.5 0.8 2.8% NJA 9% 10% 0% 8% 12.9 12.3 1.5 0.8 2.6% Global 3% 12% 0% 6% 17.0 16.0 2.1 1.4 2.5% MSCI GLOBAL SECTORS
EPS GROWTH SALES GROWTH PE PB P/SALES DY
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015E 2015E 2015E
Energy -45% 29% -23% 11% 20.8 18.2 1.3 0.8 3.5% Materials -6% 19% -3% 4% 17.7 16.3 1.8 1.0 2.7% Industrials 7% 11% 3% 4% 17.2 16.3 2.5 1.0 2.3% Consumer Discretionary 15% 15% 5% 6% 18.2 17.0 3.0 1.2 1.8% Consumer Staples 1% 9% 4% 5% 20.9 19.9 3.8 1.3 2.6% Health care 9% 12% 7% 7% 20.3 19.1 4.2 2.2 1.8% Financials 11% 9% 6% 5% 13.4 12.8 1.3 1.8 3.0% IT 8% 11% 6% 5% 17.2 16.1 3.3 2.2 1.6% Telecoms 7% 9% 3% 3% 17.1 16.5 2.3 1.4 3.9% Utilities 7% 0% 0% 2% 14.7 14.7 1.5 1.0 3.9%
Source: Pictet Asset Management, Thomson Reuters Datastream
LIQUIDITY: FED ENDS QE BUT MONETARY
STIMULUS CONTINUES ELSEWHERE
SENTIMENT INDICATOR IN NEUTRAL GEAR
SIZE OF CENTRAL BANKS’ BALANCE SHEETS PICTET SENTIMENT CYCLE INDEX
0 — 100 — 200 — 300 — 400 — 600 — 500 — — 0 — 100 — 200 — 300 — 400 — 600 — 500 12.20 08 12.20 09 06.20 09 12.20 10 06.20 11 12.20 11 06.20 10 06.20 12 06.20 13 12.20 13 12.20 12 12.20 14 06.20 15 06.20 14 Indexed Fed ECB BoE BoJ SNB -10 — -8 — 4 — 10 — 8 — 6 — — 0 — 500 — 1000 — 1500 — 2500 — 2000 06.20 13 09.20 13 03.20 14 06.20 14 09.20 14 12.20 14 06.20 15 03.20 15 0 — 2 — -6 — -4 — -2 — 12.20 13
Pictet Sentiment Index (LHS)
S&P 500 COMPOSITE – PRICE INDEX (RHS) +/- 1 STD
BUY SIGNAL
SELL SIGNAL
There are no such worries in Europe, however, where liquidity is abundant thanks to ECB stimulus, making the region a bright spot for investing. The same applies in Japan, where ample liquidity is buoying the economy, prompting a boom in capital expenditure which, coming alongside record corporate profits, is a very positive signal.
In China, more monetary and macro-prudential easing may be required to stabilise growth at the target 7 per cent level set by the government. The recent decision to end the 75 per cent limit on banks’ loan to deposit ratio, in place since 1995, marks a step in this direction.
In terms of sentiment, our readings indicate a knock-on impact from tightening liquidity conditions in the US. Looking at the breadth of gains on the S&P 500, the market rally is becoming increasingly shallow: the percentage of stocks closing above their 50-day moving average has declined throughout the year to date.
Healthcare, information technology, and consumer discretionary are the only sectors propping up the broader index, which suggests the market could be headed for a slowdown, possibly even a correction in the next few months.
That said, in terms of valuation, equities remain the most attractive asset class. Ostensibly, stocks are not cheap. According to our model, which compares the price-earnings ratio of S&P 500 constituents to bond yields, inflation and trend GDP growth, stocks are around one standard deviation above fair value. But relative to bonds, equities are attractive – we estimate that US bond yields would need to rise above 3 per cent to be more attractive than equities at the current level of corporate earnings. An improving corporate earnings picture also supports the case for equities having further to run. On a less positive note, however,
industrial activity was weaker, which can be attributed largely to the mining sector.
In spite of these setbacks, we have not altered our expectation of an interest rate hike in October as labour market conditions are improving, with US employment growth at more than 2.2 per cent year-on-year during May and 3-month annualised core consumer prices rising above the 2 per cent Fed target.
Indicators such as retail sales showed that the economic recovery of the euro zone is also on track with growth accelerating over the past few months. The headline data masks signs of divergence within the area. Our leading indicator for growth showed Italy expanding fastest at a rate of 1.6 per cent annualised in May, while Spain advanced 1.5 per cent, Ireland 1.4 per cent and Portugal 0.8 per cent. These rates were well ahead of Germany, where activity was more or less flat.
Greece, unsurprisingly, continues to contract and is a major cause of uncertainty as Athens continues to grapple with its creditors, teetering on the brink of default and exiting the euro, which would have unpredictable consequences for other markets.
In Japan, while weak external demand for exports is keeping a lid on manufacturing growth, domestic demand and investment growth are firmly on the rise. Household consumption has also stabilised. Unemployment is at an 18-year low, wage growth is on a clear uptrend and while inflation has increased modestly, it remains well below the Bank of Japan’s target.
In the emerging world, China’s sluggish economy shows only very tentative signs of stabilisation following aggressive monetary easing. Property prices rose for the first time in more than a year in May though construction remains depressed.
Unless the recovery in China gathers strength, however, growth among other developing nations will remain subdued. China’s sluggishness and the fallout from a strong US dollar continue to hold back exports among many emerging markets.
Turning to liquidity, money growth has more than halved in the US over the last three months to a 3 per cent annualised rate, which may be a sign of the Fed testing responses to tighter policy before it raises rates. We continue to believe the Fed will be very patient in hiking rates and will do so only if US growth is above its potential rate of 2-2.5 per cent.
6 | BAROMETER | JULY 2015
US EMPLOYMENT GROWTH VS BUILDING PERMITS
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Jobs and housing show US recovery gathering momentum
— 700 — 800 — 900 — 1000 — 1100 — 1200 — 1300 1.4 — 1.6 — 1.8 — 2.0 — 2.2 — 2.4 — 2012 2013 2014
US employment growth yoy% US building permits (mm) (rhs)
In our regional portfolio, we keep our preference for European and Japanese equities based on strong liquidity support and attractive valuations. We move neutral on US stocks, and become more cautious on emerging markets.
European and Japanese equities continue to exhibit the best economic and earnings momentum. In these regions, stocks also benefit from strong central bank liquidity and cheap currencies.
The European recovery is gathering pace, buoyed by a combination of a weaker euro, lower energy prices and monetary stimulus, and this is creating the conditions for a recovery in profit margins and strong corporate earnings growth. Although economic growth momentum has moderated somewhat in the past two months, data shows that domestic demand is strengthening and activity expanding not just in core euro zone countries, but across the currency bloc. Valuations further support our view – European earnings are still 35 per cent below their previous peak. Greece’s fraught negotiations with its creditors may cast a shadow over the region’s equity markets, but we believe that effects from the Greek crisis will be temporary and contained, with a very low probability of a broader fallout even if bailout negotiations were to collapse completely.
Japanese stocks exhibit the most attractive valuations among developed markets. The region’s companies have been benefiting from conditions similar to those prevailing in Europe, in the shape of central bank stimulus and a weaker currency. Earnings growth has slowed somewhat in recent months but the picture remains healthier than in other parts of the world. The outlook for Japanese companies is also supported by structural factors. Reforms to unlock value from corporate cash piles and boost shareholders’ returns are starting to bear fruit and share buybacks
announced since the beginning of the year have already outpaced the record set in 2014.
We are turning slightly less negative on US stocks to reflect an improvement in economic conditions and corporate earnings. There have been signs in recent weeks that the US economy is staging a rebound following a very weak first quarter. A jump in retail sales in May, a firming housing market and improving business sentiment indicators are all evidence that growth has accelerated in the second quarter. The earnings picture is also turning. Companies reporting earnings for the first quarter surpassed lowered analyst estimates, and the ratio of earnings downgrades to upgrades has moderated. However, profit margins stand at record highs and valuations appear lofty, particularly on long-term cyclically adjusted valuation metrics, justifying a cautious positioning, in our view.
Equity region and sector allocation
Emerging market markets downgraded; staying long Europe and Japan
Emerging markets are downgraded from neutral to underweight to reflect less favourable conditions in the short-term. Emerging market stocks may look attractive from a valuation perspective but economic fundamentals have deteriorated, especially in China, and corporate earnings do not yet show signs of a recovery. A possible rise in US interest rates next September is another risk on the horizon.
In our sector allocation, we maintain a cyclical tilt in our portfolio, with a preference for stocks that stand to benefit most from an increase in capital spending, such as industrials. Technology companies are also attractively valued and should withstand higher interest rates better than other sectors thanks to their sizeable cash reserves. Defensive sectors such as healthcare look expensive to us. EARNINGS CONSENSUS CONTINUES DECLINE IN EMERGING MARKETS
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 12-month forward earnings, in local currency terms
85 — 90 — 95 — 100 — 105 — 110 — — 85 — 90 — 95 — 100 — 105 — 110 09.20 14 10.20 14 11.20 14 12.20 14 03.20 15 04.20 15 01.20 15 02.20 15 05.20 15 06.20 15 US Europe Japan EM
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The sell-off suffered by Spanish and Italian government bonds in the wake of the Greek debt crisis has pushed yield spreads on such securities to attractive levels, particularly in the ultra-long end of the curve. The yield differential between 10-year bonds issued by Spain and Italy and German Bunds has widened by about 50 basis points in the past few weeks and the gap is even wider for 30-year debt (see chart).
These latest market moves have encouraged us to increase our exposure to bond markets in the euro zone’s periphery; as a consequence, we are now overweight EUR government debt.
Although a collapse of Greece’s debt negotiations remains a risk for the euro zone as a whole and the indebted countries in the region’s periphery in particular, we believe the firewall put in place by the ECB and other institutions should prove sufficient to contain any fallout.
Reform and growth are additional components of our investment thesis. Recent data show Italy and Spain are now expanding at a faster pace than Germany. At the same time, both Madrid and Rome have put in place reforms that should raise productivity.
Our preference for the long end of the government bond curve is also linked to how we expect monetary policy to unfold in the US. As we believe the Fed will raise interest rates only very
gradually once it begins tightening monetary policy later this year, longer-dated bonds should fare better than shorter-dated debt, flattening the yield curve.
The shift in our government bond stance has been funded by a reduction in our exposure to European high-yield bonds. The downgrade is almost entirely down to valuations. Compared to Southern European government bond markets, high yield debt has remained remarkably resilient in recent weeks, which has in turn reduced its appeal.
Elsewhere, we remain neutral local currency emerging market bonds. Valuations for the asset class are attractive – yields are high and currencies are cheap against the US dollar – but we would need to see evidence of a recovery in China’s economy before raising our exposure.
In the currency markets, we have begun to scale back our exposure to the US dollar. The scope for an additional upward move in the currency is limited – not only because US rate rises will be gradual but also because investor positioning in the unit has become excessively bullish even after some unwinding of some short positions in the euro.
Olivier Ginguené, Chairman Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit
Luca Paolini, Chief strategist Pictet Asset Management Fixed Income
Shifting government bonds to overweight as Italy, Spain look cheap
ABOUT THE PSU
The Pictet Asset Management Strategy Unit (PSU) is the investment group responsible for providing asset allocation guidance across stocks, bonds, cash and commodities. Each month, the PSU sets a broad policy stance based on its analysis of:
•business cycle: proprietary leading
indicators, inflation
•liquidity: monetary policy, credit/money
variables
•valuation: equity risk premium, yield gap,
historical earnings multiples
•sentiment: Pictet sentiment index
(investors’ surveys, tactical indicators) SPREADS RATCHET HIGHER IN ITALIAN AND SPANISH GOVERNMENT BOND MARKETS
Source: Bloomberg
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1.0 — 1.2 — 1.4 — 1.6 — 1.8 — 2.0 — 2.2 — — 1.0 — 1.2 — 1.4 — 1.6 — 1.8 — 2.0 — 2.2 2.4 — — 2.4 02.20 15 04.20 15 03.20 15 05.20 15 06.20 15 07.20 15
30-year Italy government
bond spread vs Bunds, percentage points 30-year Spain government