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Rounding of probability forecasts: the SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth

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Figure

Table 1: Reported probabilities of decline of SPF respondents
Table 2: Widths of intervals assuming the reported probabilities re‡ect di¤erent degrees of rounding
Table 3: Bounds on histogram probabilities of decline and directly-reported probabilities from Q4surveys (497 forecasts)
Figure 1: Nadaraya-Watson estimates of the expected value of p given w for current quarter fore-casts
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