The Future of Servers in Cloud Computing

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The Future of Servers

in Cloud Computing

Jean S. Bozman

Research Vice President

IDC Enterprise Platforms Group

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Agenda

Market Drivers for Change

Directions in Cloud Computing

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Server Installed Base:

The Evolution From Physical to Virtual

0 25,000,000 50,000,000 75,000,000 100,000,000 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

WW Server IB

Virtualization Leaves its Mark and Primes the Market for Change

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New Economic Model for the Datacenter

Shifts to Automation Tools are a Requirement

Source: IDC Server Virtualization 2009

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 Power & Cooling Expense

Managment Cost Server Spending

Virtualization Management

Gap

WW Spending on Servers, Power and Cooling, and Management/Administration

56 million virtual machines by

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Nov-11

 The market momentum for convergence will continue in 2012

 Integrated platforms simplify

IT infrastructure and reduce costs, compared to

on-premise system integration  There are trade-offs

between operational simplicity and vendor-specific designs

 However, system integration at OEMs reduces need for tuning/optimizing IT skill-sets at the customer site

Storage

Converged

Server Networking Management Virtualization Storage Server Networking Virtualization Management Storage

Traditional

“Best of Breed” vs. “TCO”

Source: IDC’s Top 10 Enterprise Server Predictions for 2011

Converged Infrastructure Overview

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Benefits From Convergence

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• More, and Broader, Access to More Data

• Impact Across Geos – Expanding the Global Audience

• Extending the “Walls” of the Enterprise

• Building compliance with governmental regulations into

the solution, while “isolating” workloads in a virtualized

server, multi-tenant cloud environment

• End-to-end solutions (mobile phone to CSP) will require

redesign of the software environment

• Business Goals: Better end-user productivity, more

efficient processing of applications, databases

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

Server Density is Increasing

• Systems on a Chip (SOCs): Less cabling, fewer components

• Server Processors as “Neighbors” to Local Storage

• Leveraging Low-Power Processors (e.g., ARM, Intel Atom)



Fabric Is a Key Component of Dense Systems

• Fabrics Bring More Cross-Bar Switches Inside the Machine

• Downsizing the System “Board” for High Performance • Smaller Distances Between Components

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The Third Platform

for Industry Growth

PC LAN/ Internet Client- Server 1986 Millions of Users Thousands of Apps Hundreds of Millions

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Evolving Cloud Business Models

Consumer and Enterprise Divide

Cloud Service and Delivery

Saas Paas Iaas Public Hybrid Private

Enterprise Cloud

Business to Business

Lack of Privacy a Reality Provider is Trusted

Quality of Service is Important

Security & Compliance & SLAs are Differentiators

Consumer to Consumer

Consumer Cloud

Business to Consumer

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Cloud Benefits and Challenges

-80.0% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%

Source: IDC’s Cloud Computing Survey, December 2010, n=603

Pay-as-you-go (opex) Easy/fast to deploy to end-users Pay only for what you use Allows us to reduce IT headcount Makes sharing with partners simpler Encourages standard systems More sourcing choices Faster deployment of new services

Regulatory requirement restrictions Performance/response times

Availability/service provider uptime Not robust enough for critical apps Not enough ability to customize

Hard to integrate, manage w/in-house IT May cost more

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Servers for the Cloud:

Private Cloud Outpacing Public Cloud Spend

 Public cloud computer

server spend will grow from $1.54B in 2010 to $3.56B in 2015 (5-year CAGR of 18.3%)

Private cloud computer

server spend will grow from $2.55 B in 2010 to $5.88 B in 2015 (5-year CAGR of 18.1%)

 Source: WW Enterprise

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What’s Moving to Public Cloud?

Source: IDC's North American Cloud Survey, January 2011 n = 603 (Dir IT and above)

Q. Which applications and IT functions do you consider MOST SUITABLE for Public Cloud implementations?

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Business apps (excl ERP) ERP (Financials) TechApps (design, eng, R&D) ERP (HR) Collaboration Apps (excl email) Email Data analysing/mining apps Office/productivity apps Data Backup/archive IT Help Desk/IT Service Management Storage Capacity on-demand Application development Application deployment IT management (server, network) Mobile device management

5000+ All <500 users +5% +5% +3% +11% +12% +9% +13% +7%

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Shifting IT Spend Patterns for Servers

Where the servers will be deployed in next-gen datacenters

Q. Please estimate how much of your company's IT budget will be allocated to buying and managing these different types of IT services

IDC’s Cloud Computing Survey, December 2010 n=603

49% 37% 16% 16% 13% 19% 11% 15% 11% _13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Today 24 Months Public Cloud Private cloud - Hosted Private Cloud Inhouse Outsourced IT Traditional IT



Enterprises see

that the onramp

to cloud is more

likely to be

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Clouds for Enterprises

Will require a new set of operational standards for maturity

The market will grow as SLAs improve

Innovation for

enterprises will be with service providers & hosters

More than 50% of all

enterprise cloud servers are hosted

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 The market for servers that are designed for the cloud is growing  Signature characteristics: high density compute, fast I/O

 Emergence of new fabrics to link clusters of servers together

 Support for cloud-scale analytics for unstructured data (Big Data)  Horizontal scaling – Leveraging scale-out computing to build up

overall capacity to support cloud workloads

 Phase 2 deployments – Working toward a state-ful cloud, with more security, more support for high availability, “fat” nodes

 Platform as a service (PaaS) grows for new-app development  Software as a service (SaaS) for enterprise applications

Vendors Morph Server Designs:

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 Cisco and UCS: Using “blocks” of infrastructure to combine server, storage and networking components

 Dell and its DCS/SP Customers: Staying close to SP customers for emerging server HW requirements

 Facebook drives Open Computing Project; builds datacenters with new approaches to cooling components, works with ODM partners to build next-gen servers for the cloud-enabled datacenter

 HP: Customer input from HPC, hosting and cloud customers; converged infrastructure. HP/Calxeda “Redstone” development platform to refine use of low-power components

 SeaMicro: High numbers of Intel Atom processors per system, leveraging density, low power, proximity for speed

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• In cloud servers, it’s a start-over environment, with

cloud-specific requirements. Growing from $5.2B to

$9.4B in five years (2001-2015). Stay close to the

customers. It’s worth it.

• New Requirements from Cloud Service Providers Keep

Emerging. Monitor their latest deployments for technical

changes and evolving server design.

• Understand what the ODMs are trying to do. If you’re a

systems vendor, you may want to take the same

approach. If you’re a large enterprise, you have a

choice: build, buy, or collaborate.

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