Springer Series in Statistics
Statistics in the Health Sciences
Editors-Statistics in the Health Sciences K. Dietz, M. Gail, K. Krickeberg, B. Singer Editors-Springer Series in Statistics J. Berger, S. Fienberg, J. Gani, K. Krickeberg, I. Olkin, B. Singer
Springer Series in Statistics
Andersen/Borgan/Gill/Keiding: Statistical Models Based on Counting Processes.
Anderson: Continuous-Time Markov Chains: An Applications-Oriented Approach.
Andrews/Herzberg: Data: A Collection of Problems from Many Fields for the Student and Research Worker.
Anscombe: Computing in Statistical Science through APL.
Berger: Statistical Decision Theory and Bayesian Analysis, 2nd edition.
BolJarine/Zacks: Prediction Theory for Finite Populations.
Bremaud: Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics.
Brockwell/Davis: Time Series: Theory and Methods. 2nd edition.
Choi: ARMA Model Identification.
Daley/Vere-Jones: An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes.
Dzhaparidze: Parameter Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in Spectral Analysis of Stationary Time Series.
Farrell: Multivariate Calculation.
Federer: Statistical Design and Analysis for Intercropping Experiments.
Fienberg/Hoaglin/Kruskal/Tanur (Eds.): A Statistical Model: Frederick Mosteller's Contributions to Statistics, Science, and Public Policy.
Goodman/Kruskal: Measures of Association for Cross Classifications.
Grandell: Aspects of Risk Theory.
Hall: The Bootstrap and Edgeworth Expansion.
Hiirdle: Smoothing Techniques: With Implementation in S.
Hartigan: Bayes Theory.
Heyer: Theory of Statistical Experiments.
Jolliffe: Principal Component Analysis.
Kotz/ Johnson ( Eds.): Breakthroughs in Statistics Volume I.
KotzfJohnson (Eds.): Breakthroughs in Statistics Volume II.
Kres: Statistical Tables for Multivariate Analysis.
Leadbetter/Lindgren/Rootzen: Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Processes.
Le Cam: Asymptotic Methods in Statistical Decision Theory.
Le Cam/Yang: Asymptotics in Statistics: Some Basic Concepts.
Manoukian: Modern Concepts and Theorems of Mathematical Statistics.
Manton/Singer/Suzman: Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations.
Miller, Jr.: Simultaneous Statistical Inference, 2nd edition.
Mosteller/Wallace: Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of The Federalist Papers.
Pollard: Convergence of Stochastic Processes.
Pratt/Gibbons: Concepts of Nonparametric Theory.
Read/Cressie: Goodness-of-Fit Statistics for Discrete Multivariate Data.
Reiss: A Course on Point Processes.
Reiss: Approximate Distributions of Order Statistics: With Applications to Non- parametric Statistics.
Ross: Nonlinear Estimation.
(continued after index)
Kenneth G. Manton Burton H. Singer Richard M. Suzman Editors
Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations
With 42 Figures
Springer-Verlag
New York Berlin Heidelberg London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest
Kenneth G. Manton Duke University Center for Demographic
Studies
2117 Campus Drive Durham, NC 27708 USA
Series Editors K. Dietz
Burton H. Singer
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health School of Medicine Yale University
60 College Street, Box 3333 New Haven, CT 06510 USA
M. Gail
Richard M. Suzman NIHfNIA
Gateway Building, Room 2C234 7201 Wisconsin Avenue Bethesda, MD 20892
USA
Institut fUr Medizinische Biometrie Universitat Tiibingen
7400 Tiibingen
National Cancer Institute Rockville, MD 20892 USA
Germany K. Krickeberg 3 Rue de L'Estrapade 75005 Paris
France
B. Singer Yale University New Haven, CT 06510 USA
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Forecasting the health of elderly populations/Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, Richard M. Suzman (eds.).
p. cm.-(Springer series in statistics. Statistics in the health sciences.) Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9334-4 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9332-0 DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-9332-0
1. Aged-Health and hygiene-United States-Forecasting. 2. Aged-Health and hygiene-United States-Forecasting-Statistical methods. I. Manton, Kenneth G.
II. Singer, Burton H. III. Suzman, Richard M. IV. Series.
[DNLM: 1. Aged. 2. Forecasting-methods. 3. Health Care Costs.
4. Health Status. 5. Models, Theoretical. WT 30 F714]
RA408.A3F67 1993 614.5'992-dc20 DNLMjDLC
for Library of Congress 92-48819
Printed on acid-free paper.
© 1993 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993
All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer-Verlag New York, Inc., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis.
Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden.
The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, etc., in this publication, even if the former are not especially identified, is not to be taken as a sign that such names, as understood by the Trade Marks and Merchandise Marks Act, may accordingly be used freely by anyone.
Production managed by Hal Henglein; manufacturing supervised by Jacqui Ashri.
Typeset by Asco Trade Typesetting Ltd., Hong Kong.
9 8 7 6 543 2 1 ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9334-4
Contents
Contributors ix
PART ONE. INTRODUCTION 1
CHAPTER 1
The Scientific and Policy Needs for Improved Health Forecasting
Models for Elderly Populations 3
Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Richard M. Suzman
PART TWO. METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES 37 CHAPTER 2
Actuarial and Demographic Forecasting Methods H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Hickman, and Edward A. Lew CHAPTER 3
Demographic Change in the United States, 1970-2050 Samuel H. Preston
CHAPTER 4
Health Forecasting and Models of Aging Kenneth G. Manton
39
51
79
vi Contents
PART THREE. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR
SPECIFIC DISEASES 107
CHAPTER 5
Cancer Forecasting: Cohort Models of Disease Progression and
Mortality 109
Kenneth G. Manton, Burton H. Singer, and Eric Stallard CHAPTER 6
The Effects of Risk Factors on Male and Female Cardiovascular
Risks in Middle and Late Age 137
Kenneth G. Manton, John E. Dowd, and Eric Stallard CHAPTER 7
Frailty and Forecasts of Active Life Expectancy in the United States 159 Kenneth G. Manton, Eric Stallard, and Korbin Liu
CHAPTER 8
Risk Factors Affecting Multiple-Disease Efficacy and Effectiveness of
Intervention Programs 183
H. Dennis Tolley, Kenneth G. Manton, and J. Richard Bumgarner
PART FOUR. EFFECTS OF INTERVENTIONS ON
HEALm COSTS 205
CHAPTER 9
Estimates and Projections of Dementia-Related Service Expenditures 207 Kenneth G. Manton, Larry S. Corder, and Robert Clark
CHAPTER 10
A Forecasting Model for the Assessment of Medical Technologies:
End-Stage Renal Disease 239
Henry Krakauer CHAPTER 11
Projections of the Aged Supplementary Security Income Population:
The Implications of Uncertainty 263
Larry S. Corder, Lisa M. LaVange, and Fred A. Bryan CHAPTER 12
Evaluation of Long-Term Care: Estimation of Health Transitions in
Frail Populations 275
H. Dennis Tolley, James C. Vertrees, and Kenneth G. Manton
Contents vii
CHAPTER 13
Financing and Use of Long-Term Care for the Elderly 289 Joshua M. Wiener, Raymond J. Hanley, Denise A. Spence, and
Sheila E. Murray
PART FIVE. LONGITUDINAL RESEARCH:
CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE OUTLOOK 305 CHAPTER 14
Molecular Biological Approaches to Understanding Aging and
Senescence 307
Huber R. Warner CHAPTER 15
Biomedical Research and Changing Concepts of Disease and Aging:
Implications for Long-Term Health Forecasts for Elderly Populations 319 Kenneth G. Manton
Index 367
Contributors
J. Richard Bumgarner World Health Organization Tuberculosis Division 20, Avenue Appia 1211 Geneva 27 Switzerland
Fred A. Bryan c/o Larry S. Corder
Center for Demographic Studies Duke University
2117 Campus Drive Durham, NC 27708 USA
Robert Clark ASPE
200 Independence A venue SW Room 416E
Washington, DC 20201 USA
Larry S. Corder
Center for Demographic Studies Duke University
2117 Campus Drive Durham, NC 27708 USA
J. Edward Dowd
World Health Organization Room 3157
1211 Geneva 27 Switzerland Raymond Hanley Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 USA James C. Hickman
Dean
University of Wisconsin School of Business
102 Commerce Building 1155 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706 USA Henry Krakauer, M.D., Ph.D.
Captain, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences Professor of Preventive Medicine
and Biometrics
F. Edward Hebert School of Medicine
4301 Jones Bridge Road Bethesda, MD 20814-4799 USA
x
Lisa La V ange 104 Bristol Drive
Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA Edward A. Lew
1750 Jamaica Way Unit 213
Punta Gorda, FL 33950 USA Korbin Liu
The Urban Institute 2100 M Street NW
Washington, DC 20037 USA Kenneth G. Manton
Research Professor
Center for Demographic Studies Duke University
2117 Campus Drive Durham, NC 27708 USA Sheila Murray
c/o Joshua M. Wiener Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 USA Samuel H. Preston
Professor of Sociology Population Studies Center University of Pennsylvania 3718 Locust Walk
McNeil Building
Philadelphia, PA 19174 USA Burton H. Singer
Dept. of Epidemiology and Public Health
School of Medicine Yale University 60 College Street Box 3333
New Haven, CT 06510 USA
Denise Spence c/o Joshua M. Wiener Brookings Institution
Contributors
1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 USA Eric Stallard
Associate Research Professor Center for Demographic Studies Duke University
2117 Campus Drive Durham, NC 27708 USA Richard Suzman
NIH/NIA
Gateway Building, Room 2C234 7201 Wisconsin Avenue
Bethesda, MD 20892 USA H. Dennis Tolley
Center for Statistical and Computing Resarch Brigham Young University Talmage Math/Computer
Building 226 Provo, UT 84602 USA James Vertrees
SOLON Consulting, Ltd.
12501 Prosperity Drive Suite 150
Silver Spring, MD 20904 USA Huber R. Warner
National Institutes of Health National Institute on Aging 7201 Wisconsin Avenue Suite 2E208
Bethesda, MD 20892 USA Joshua M. Wiener Brookings Institution
1775 Massachusetts A venue, NW Washington, DC 20036 USA
