Dr. Josef Ackermann
Chairman of the Management Board and the
Group Executive Committee of
Deutsche Bank AG
Annual Press Conference of Deutsche Bank AG
Frankfurt am Main, February 1, 2007
– Check against delivery –
Slide 1: Cover page Ladies and Gentlemen,
On behalf of my colleagues and myself, it is my great pleasure to welcome you here today on the occasion of Deutsche Bank’s Annual Press Conference.
I am very pleased to be able to report on a very successful year for Deutsche Bank. To begin with, I would like to give you three key messages:
- First: 2006 was a record year for Deutsche Bank. Never before have we achieved a better result from our operating businesses.
- Second: Our shareholders will benefit from the value we have created. Thanks to outstanding earnings per share, we will be proposing a dividend of 4 Euros to the Annual General Meeting in May. This too is a new record for Deutsche Bank AG. - And third: We are very confident that we can sustain our growth momentum. We are
very well-positioned to respond to the fundamental trends which will shape our business over the next few years.
I. Slide 2: Trends shaping our environment
Let me give you an overview of these trends:
First and foremost: globalisation. The economies of China and India, but also Russia, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America, continue to open up to the free movement of trade and capital. As geographical boundaries disappear, these fast-growing emerging markets assume increasing importance. This offers new and attractive prospects for global companies and financial services providers. Local presence becomes ever more important in serving the different needs of different customers.
Second: globalisation is already driving the world’s capital markets, which are
experiencing powerful growth. Investor appetite continues to grow unabated. And these investors demand products which are specifically tailored to their individual risk and return profiles. They seek innovation, which allows them to take advantage of different
capital market scenarios. And we also see increased levels of corporate activity on the capital markets. We expect rising volumes of M&A transactions and IPOs. Corporates continue to seek intelligent solutions for their financing, cash management and risk management needs, and financial institutions act as efficient distributors of risk. Increasingly, funds are being raised through the capital markets in the form of securitisations, such as asset-backed securities, and structured instruments.
Third: global asset growth, as prosperity increases. In Germany, and in other mature European markets, the need for private retirement funding drives demand. In emerging markets in Asia, Central or Eastern Europe and Latin America, creation of new wealth brings with it the growing need for private investment. As investors seek greater diversification for their assets, new asset classes emerge: derivatives, currencies, commodities including precious metals and raw materials, real estate and private equity holdings assume increasing importance. Hedge funds and private equity groups
become increasingly important as complementary vehicles for investors.
These trends are the foundations of future growth. Deutsche Bank is well-positioned to take advantage of these trends, and I will come back to that point. But first: the
highlights of last year for Deutsche Bank.
Slide 3: Positive development of the global financial markets in 2006 Business conditions were favourable during the year.
The global economy was strong in 2006, growing by nearly 5%. A slight slowing of the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the real estate market cooled, was counterbalanced by sustained strong growth in Asia’s emerging
economies, notably China and India. In the Eurozone, we saw a sustained economic upswing.
Good economic fundamentals were reflected in the world’s financial markets, which developed strongly as a whole. However, market conditions varied substantially during the course of the year. Following a very favourable environment in the first quarter, volatility in the international financial markets increased substantially in May and June. This was caused by growing concerns over inflation and an anticipation of higher
interest rates, together with continuing geo-political uncertainties. These concerns led to corrections in equity markets around the world, emerging market indices in particular coming under pressure. As the year progressed, concerns over inflation receded as economic growth in the USA slowed and as energy prices softened. Financial markets once again stabilized and equity marketsrecovered strongly, in both mature and emerging markets. The MSCI World, Euro STOXX 50 and DAX 30 reached six-year highs, and in the USA, the Dow Jones Industrial Average even reached a new all-time high.
We reaped the full benefits of this generally favourable environment. We benefited because our business model is efficient; we benefited because we hold leading
positions in key businesses, and because we possess a truly global network. We also profited because we maintained our leadership in our home market, Germany.
Slide 4: Improved business conditions in Europe and Germany
Our commitment to our home market paid off. Against the backdrop of a generally more robust economy in the Eurozone, Germany, having been a growth laggard, became a growth leader. In addition to a strong rise in exports, capital investment also became a driver of German economic expansion. Consumer spending picked up thanks to declining unemployment and the FIFA World Cup, while the construction sector also recovered.
Slide 5: An outstanding year Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am therefore very pleased to be able to report to you on an exceptionally successful year for Deutsche Bank. 2006 was indeed a record year for us. Once again, all the headline numbers turned out to be significantly better than 2005, which had already been very good.
In 2006, Deutsche Bank’s total revenues were 28.3 billion Euros, up 11% over the previous year. We continued to operate cost-consciously, and kept loan loss provisions low and as a result translated revenue growth into a significant increase in profitability: income before income taxes rose 33% to 8.1 million Euros, while net income rose 70% to 6 billion Euros.
Net income includes a one-time tax benefit of approximately € 350 million. This is a result of the recognition, during the fourth quarter, of corporate income tax credits for prior years. Like a number of other German companies, we were required to accelerate the recognition of these tax credits for the first time in the Annual Financial Statements 2006 due to changes in German tax law.
All of the bank’s divisions contributed to the outstanding results. The Corporate & Investment Bank, or CIB, turned in both record revenues and record underlying profits.
In Sales & Trading, we achieved record revenues in both our debt and our equities businesses. Here, our unique business model, which integrates our debt and equity platforms and specialises in demanding, innovative and customized products, proved to be very robust and successful, both in good market conditions and in challenging ones, such as we experienced over the course of the year 2006. In traditional investment banking, our Origination and Advisory business, we were again more successful than the year before, thanks in good measure to a very healthy M&A market. In addition, prestigious mandates such as our joint bookrunner role on the initial public offering for the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), contributed both to our profitability and to our international reputation.
Global Transaction Banking also turned in a significantly improved performance. Within CIB, this business is an attractive one for us, with its close client relationships and stable revenues. We saw solid revenue growth last year, above all in custody and cash management.
Our second Group Division, Private Clients and Asset Management (PCAM), is also one of Deutsche Bank’s ‘stable’ earnings streams. In 2006, PCAM increased both revenues and profitability.
PCAM comprises two businesses: first, our Asset and Wealth Management Division, which serves private clients, including very wealthy families, as well as institutional clients. Invested assets grew further last year, in particular thanks to substantial net inflows of new money. Growth in net new money, relative to invested assets, was strongest in the Asia-Pacific region.
PCAM’s second business line is Private & Business Clients (PBC), which provides traditional retail banking activities for private individuals and business customers,
including loans and deposits, current account operations, payments and investment and brokerage services. Revenues from these activities grew, and PBC’s results improved versus the year before, while expenses were significantly higher due to our continuing investments in growth, not only in Germany and Europe, but also in India and China.
Slide 6: We continue to deliver on targets
Pre-tax return on average active equity increased to 31%, clearly surpassing our over-the-cycle pre-tax return on equity target of 25%, even though we increased our average active equity by 1.6 billion Euros to support the growth in our businesses.
With our capital management strategy, we are pursuing three important objectives: - Financing investments to expand our business,
- maintaining our core capital strength, and - creating value for our shareholders.
We achieved all three of these. Although risk-weighted assets increased in line with our business growth, our BIS core capital ratio rose to just under 9.0%. It is thus at the upper end of our target range of between 8% and 9%.
With these capital resources, we are in a position to lead-manage even larger mandates, insofar as we are willing to accept the risks these entail.
Slide 7: Outstanding returns to our shareholders Ladies and Gentlemen,
These impressive figures for the 2006 financial year give a clear message: we create value for our shareholders. Diluted earnings per share improved by fully 66% over the previous year, to 11 Euros 55. And our shareholders benefit directly from this earnings growth. For 2006, we will be proposing a dividend of 4 Euros per share. Subject to the Annual General Meeting’s approval of our proposal on May 24, this means that our dividend has increased by 60% over last year. In other words, our dividend has tripled since 2002, when we launched Phase 1 of our management agenda.
Slide 8: Strong share price performance
Our share price has also performed very well. It broke through the 100 euro threshold and reached an all-time high. Since the beginning of last year, Deutsche Bank’s share has risen by 31%, ahead of the Euro- STOXX Banks Index, which rose 27%, and outperforming the DAX by five percentage points.
In order to secure our competitiveness and strategic development, our objective is to create added value for our shareholders. We achieved this objective. But we can only add value for our shareholders if we fulfil three essential preconditions.
Slide 9: Our other stakeholders
First: satisfied customers. They are at the centre of everything we do, across all of the bank’s business divisions and regions. They are the basis for our success. Deutsche Bank would not have such a strong position today if we were not successful in
impressing our clients with first class performance and in justifying the trust they place in us. This also means that we do not pull out of a market at the first sign of stormy weather. For example, following the Asian financial crisis, we stayed in the region, and stood by our clients – unlike many of our competitors. Customers in the region,
including politicians and the media, appreciated this. And now, our loyalty is paying off. In India, for example, during the last two years, we gained significant market share in investment banking and now rank first or second in key investment banking products.
Second: highly qualified and highly motivated people from all over the world. Their diversity, their different experience and cultural backgrounds are trump cards for us. Even as our marketplace becomes increasingly global, we must still take account of local cultures and the different wishes of clients in different regions. Our staff members are ideally suited to do just that. Each and every day, they deploy their know-how, their dedication and their creativity to provide innovative services to our clients. They are the guarantee for the bank’s good results. Let me take this opportunity to express my very special thanks to all our staff for their unwavering commitment and performance in 2006.
Third: we must embrace our responsibilities towards society. At Deutsche Bank, we are firmly convinced that international competitiveness and corporate social
responsibility are by no means contradictory. On the contrary: only competitive and profitable firms can also afford to take on responsibility in the community. Last year, we allocated around € 85 million for our corporate citizenship activities. This money has been invested appropriately in the regions where we do business. Our social and
cultural commitments keep us “down to earth” as a bank, but they also demonstrate that we do not lose sight of the needs of society. We consider the interests of society and the interests of our shareholders to be two sides of the same coin.
Slide 10: Deutsche Bank logo
Ladies and Gentlemen, allow me to summarize:
Deutsche Bank is well positioned in Germany and around the globe. We have a strong, competitive position in key fields of growth. We have used this advantage to achieve outstanding results. We have grown profitably and created value for our shareholders. We intend to consolidate and build on our position among the leading global financial services providers. We are resolved to continue along the path we have chosen.
This brings me to my second topic: our strategic direction.
II. Ladies and Gentlemen,
Since 2002, Deutsche Bank has pursued a management agenda with a clearly focused strategy and precisely defined targets. In the first phase, we streamlined our
organisation. In the second phase, we expanded our core businesses and achieved our target of pre-tax return on equity of 25%.
Slide 11: A clear identity
Having successfully implemented the first two phases of our management agenda, Deutsche Bank is now a leading global investment bank with a strong and
profitable private client franchise. With our mutually reinforcing businesses, we enjoy a leading position in Europe and powerful, growing franchises in North America, Asia and key emerging markets.
Last year, we re-examined our strategic options. We came to the conclusion that a fundamental change of strategic direction would not be right. Retreating or repositioning are not feasible, as this would mean making a U-turn on what has been a successful path. Furthermore, ‘transformational’ deals are currently not on our agenda. Such a step could impair our profile as a globally leading German bank, and would entail significant execution risk. For these reasons, we decided in favour of the only logical option: from a position of strength, we will leverage our global platform foraccelerated growth.
Slide 12: Clear priorities for the future
Phase 3 of our management agenda, which we launched in October last year, builds on our success and achievements since 2002 and consistently follows through on our strategy of the first two phases. Put simply, our strategy is evolutionary, not
revolutionary. We are therefore concentrating on attractive lines of business and markets with high growth potential. Phase 3 comprises four key elements:
- First: we will continue to maintain our cost, risk, capital and regulatory discipline. - Second: we will continue to invest in our core businesses, through organic growth
and targeted acquisitions.
- Third: we will expand businesses which deliver stable earnings streams: Global Transaction Banking and PCAM.
- And fourth: we will build on our competitive edge in investment banking, reinforcing the leading market position of CIB.
Furthermore, a decisive factor will be to more fully utilize the cost and revenue potential from cooperation between our business divisions. We will only leverage Deutsche Bank’s full potential if we succeed in unlocking synergies right across the value chain, from product development through to distribution, and client relationship management.
Let me explain the four key elements of Phase 3 in more detail.
In the first phase of our management agenda, our priority was, to reduce costs and risks and to optimize our capital management. Here, we must not, and will not, let up.
our highest priorities. Just as important, however, is consistent risk management. We will maintain rigorous credit risk standards. Effective capital and risk management contributes significantly to the success of our internal and external growth initiatives.
Furthermore, we will continue to observe strict compliance with legal and regulatory requirements in order to protect the bank from reputational risks. Deutsche Bank has won an outstanding reputation in the financial sector. It is important to maintain and protect this. Deutsche Bank’s reputation provides a solid basis of trust and is critical for our success. I am happy to repeat what I said at our last Annual General Meeting: no business transaction in the world is worth risking Deutsche Bank’s good reputation for.
Slide 13: Growth investments across the world
Organic growth is an important driver of our growth. In all of our core businesses, we are in a position to continue growing organically. Over the past years, we have already demonstrated this. We are developing, we are expanding and we are building. For example, we invested in our branch network in Germany. We have modernized approximately 100 Investment & Finance Centres and opened more than 100 new financial advisor offices. In addition, we have expanded our consumer finance business, which has operated successfully in Italy for some years, across our other key markets in Europe. Another example is India, where we opened eight new branches in five of the largest cities and hired more than 800 employees, of which around half are financial advisors. Within a short period of time, we gained 160,000 clients in India. We have acquired licenses for two more branches, which we plan to open this year.
We will supplement this organic growth through targeted acquisitions, if and where it makes strategic and commercial sense to do so. However, here we will proceed in a highly disciplined manner. We will evaluate each potential acquisition or partnership to see if it serves the strategic and financial interests of the bank and if it actually creates value for our shareholders. And we will only pursue good opportunities. The latest example of this is that we are taking a stake of up to 20% in the Hanoi Building Joint Commercial Stock Bank, or Habubank, in Vietnam. This strategic partnership
strengthens and deepens our business with private and business clients in the important Asian region.
Here in Germany, we strengthened PBC through the acquisitions of Berliner Bank and norisbank. Berliner Bank is a perfect ‘fit’ with our own branch network in Germany’s capital city, expanding our presence there with 60 additional, modern branches and bringing us around 320,000 new clients. The purchase of norisbank is a big step forward for our consumer finance business in Germany. With norisbank, PBC gains another strong brand name and reaches approximately 300,000 new clients through nearly 100 additional branches.
Tilney Group and MortgageIT are examples of targeted acquisitions outside Germany. Tilney Group is a leading wealth manager in the United Kingdom. Through this
acquisition, we significantly expand our Private Wealth Management footprint in Europe’s second largest wealth management market. MortgageIT is a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in the origination, purchase and securitization of residential mortgages in the United States. The combination of MortgageIT’s market position with our securitization and capital markets expertise gives us first-class growth opportunities in the broad-based market segment for mortgage finance in the USA. According to our projections, in the year 2008, these four key acquisitions will contribute 1 billion Euros to the bank’s revenues and 200 million Euros to income before income taxes.
Slide 14: More employees
As a result of these growth initiatives, employee numbers have risen in all businesses, and in key growth regions. In total, we created over 5,000 new jobs last year.
Furthermore, we continue to invest significantly in the apprenticeships and staff training to ensure that we maintain the high quality of our client relationship management and advisory services. In Germany, PBC alone now employs over 1,300 apprentices.
Slide 15: Further grow our “stable” businesses
In particular, we aim to accelerate growth in Global Transaction Banking, Asset and Wealth Management and Private & Business Clients. These businesses are highly valued by the capital markets and rating agencies, since they are seen as delivering a stable contribution to earnings. Growing these businesses should therefore have a positive impact on Deutsche Bank’s share price and credit rating.
In the last three years, the growth rate in these ‘stable’ businesses has been very encouraging. In 2006, they produced underlying profits of 2.7 billion Euros – double the figure of a few years earlier. We plan to further expand these areas.
In Global Transaction Banking, we aim to continue to expand in Europe and emerging markets. In particular, we intend to build on our business in Asia and intend to gain market share in transatlantic cash-management flows, into and out of the USA.
In Asset Management, DWS Scudder has been repositioned and the DWS brand rolled out across the Asia-Pacific region. Furthermore, we are well positioned to profit from global trends in the asset management industry. These trends include the
increased emphasis on alternative assets by institutional investors, outsourcing of asset management functions by the insurance industry, growth in the market for private
retirement planning in Europe, and new wealth creation in emerging economies.
In Private Wealth Management, our priority is to maintain good inflows of net new money and, above all, to achieve significant growth in alternative investments and in secured lending. In the U.S. market, we are expanding the reach of our salesforce and optimizing our client service. In addition, our range of services is to be expanded and operating platform strengthened.
In Private & Business Clients, we will further expand our distribution network in key European markets and further strengthen our presence in growth markets, such as India and China. In Germany, the acquisition of Berliner Bank and Norisbank will strengthen our existing market position and accelerate growth in our consumer finance business. Through norisbank, we aim to serve a customer base of one million clients by the year 2010.
Slide 16: Build on our competitive edge in investment banking
Our investment banking business, Corporate Banking and Securities, delivered pre-tax underlying profits of 5.2 billion Euros last year – up by 22% over the previous year and nearly double 2003’s level. We have a world-leading investment banking platform – but we are not satisfied yet. Our objective is to strengthen our leading position in Europe and reach top-ranking positions in the USA and Asia-Pacific.
Our Global Markets platform is a world leader in the sales and trading of securities, with outstanding diversification. Thanks to our leading position in high-volume, scale-driven businesses, we can generate significant earnings with “standardized” products. We will maintain our disciplined approach to proprietary trading. In addition, we aim to grow in high-potential businesses such as securitizations, structured credit, hybrid financing solutions and derivatives. In addition, we will invest more in our equity business, which ranks among the top five in the world, and selectively build up our presence in commodities.
Within Global Banking, our objective is to rank among the global top five in the
corporate finance business. We aim to tighten our leading position in Germany. We plan to intensify our efforts to serve the needs of our medium-sized business clients – the ‘Mittelstand’ – and to this end we have improved our relationship management structure and developed a clear and consistent credit policy which is tailored to the needs of each client. We also aim to boost our market share in Europe, and in North and South America. Furthermore, we will selectively expand our business in emerging markets as well as in important businesses such as leveraged finance and commercial real estate.
Slide 17: Deutsche Bank logo
Phase 3 of our management agenda includes clearly defined targets. For 2008, our goal is to reach underlying pre-tax profit of € 8.4 billion. This is consistent with achieving our over-the-cycle targets: a multiple-year average double-digit growth in diluted
earnings per share, and a sustainable pre-tax return on equity of 25%. This would allow us to continue our attractive dividend policy.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are confident that we will achieve these targets. Deutsche Bank has built a reputation for delivering, in fact over-delivering, on expectations. This is also true for the third phase of our management agenda.
We have certainly made a very promising start on Phase 3. We have already made good progress in implementing our management agenda. Our investment banking business continues to grow, and we can point to sustained improvements in the ‘stable’ businesses, Global Transaction Banking and PCAM.
III. Ladies and Gentlemen,
Overall, we have a positive outlook for our operating environment this year. The
financial markets are strong. Even after a good start to the year so far, the global equity markets still have additional upward potential. Valuation levels in a number of markets are still relatively moderate, yields in the money markets and bond markets are quite low, and corporate profit growth should continue as well. On top of that, merger and acquisition activity remains strong in the corporate sector, with a particular focus on Europe and especially here in Germany.
The German economy is currently experiencing a strong upturn, driven in part by domestic demand. The value added tax increase at the beginning of this year will probably have a braking effect on consumption, but possibly not as strong as was generally feared last year. The corporate sector has a positive outlook for this year. Thanks to focused restructuring and sound cost discipline during the last few years, the international competitiveness of the German economy has picked up significantly. Capacity utilization is high, order books are full, and good earnings forecasts suggest that investment will continue. This is also indicated by the Ifo Business Climate Index: which shows that business confidence has risen for four months in succession, and that the economy’s momentum will continue into the coming months after a slight pause at the beginning of the year.
The investment climate remains favorable, even if growth in the global economy may be somewhat slower: around 4% in our view, compared to nearly 5% for 2006. In addition to the USA, above all China and India should contribute to a stable global economic growth rate. In the Eurozone, the upswing should continue in 2007, even if the pace may let up somewhat, due to the mild deceleration of the global economy and a tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank.
In other words: the environment is benign, both in the global economy and in the world’s financial markets. If we don’t run into any headwinds, we are confident that we can maintain our current growth momentum.
Slide 18: Well-positioned for future growth
In fact, Deutsche Bank is very well-positioned to benefit from the trends which I alluded to in my opening remarks.
Globalisation favours those service providers who have built strong positions in
emerging growth regions of the world. Our geographical reach is a clear advantage. We are one of the most ‘globalised’ of any major bank, with a presence in more than 70 different countries. We generate a greater proportion of our revenues outside our home market than any other major investment bank. In all parts of the world, the Deutsche Bank logo is one of the best-recognised brands in international finance.
Above all: we are present in markets which are growing, and where our clients need us. We are the market leader in Germany. We stand to gain, more than any competitor, from the increasing confidence in our home market which we see in both German and non-German clients. In Western Europe, and indeed in the U.S.A., we have a powerful position. We have built up leading franchises in Central and Eastern Europe, but also in Latin America. Our investment in these fast-developing markets is paying off all the more handsomely due to the strong regional growth momentum. There is true above all in Asia. Our strategy in Asia serves as an example to many companies who want to expand in this, the fastest-growing region of the world.
As the world’s capital markets grow in importance, we benefit from our position as a world-leading investment bank. We have an outstanding sales and trading platform. Our corporate finance business is particularly strong in Europe and Asia, where we see excellent prospects for continued corporate activity. Our business model places an emphasis on innovative, high-value products and customised solutions for demanding corporate and institutional clients. Securitization and structured products are two examples – and both are very attractive businesses. We also enjoy a strong position with increasingly important customer groups such as hedge funds and financial sponsors.
And in asset gathering, we are one of the leading banks, with virtually € one trillion of client assets under management at the end of 2006. We have a strong position in
investment management for both institutions and private individuals worldwide. Our subsidiary DWS is a leading global mutual fund manager - the undisputed number one in Germany, a leader in Europe and has strong platforms in the U.S.A. and Asia. We are also a leading provider in the fast-growing area of alternative investments, which is ever more important. Furthermore, we benefit from product development synergies across our business divisions, combining the capital markets expertise of our Investment Bank with the market intelligence of our salesforces, to serve the requirements of our clients.
Slide 19: Deutsche Bank logo
As you can see, Ladies and Gentlemen: Deutsche Bank is well-positioned for the future. We will do everything in our power to sustain our growth momentum, for the benefit of our shareholders, our clients and our staff members.
