Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

(1)

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Jiyong Eom and Leon E. Clarke

JGCRI, USA

Priyadarshi R. Shukla

IIM Ahmedabad, India

Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand

for India: Disaggregating end use energy services

in an integrated assessment modeling framework

(2)

Some recent efforts using GCAM- IIM version

!

Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. 2011.

Sustainable energy

transformations in India under climate policy

. Sustainable

Development, DOI: 10.1002/sd.516

!

Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V.

Low carbon and clean

energy scenarios for India: A targeted approach

. Under

review

!

Chaturvedi V, Eom J, Clarke LE and Shukla PR.

Modeling

long term building energy demand for India.

(3)

Background

!

High economic growth expected for India, more than 8-9%

in the near future (Assumptions based on GoI documents)

!

Population more than 1.2 Bn

!

Rapid urbanization

!

Managing energy demand and ensuring adequate and

reliable energy supply important challenges for Indian policy

(4)

Modeling Building Energy Use:

(5)

5

Building energy consumption in India

• More than 45% of total

final energy in India

consumed in the building

sector in 2005

• High reliance on traditional

biomass

• Significant difference in

rural and urban energy

consumption profiles

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ

Final energy consumption

Building

Transportation

(6)

India Buildings’ Energy Consumption (2005)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 Urban

Rural

Commercial

Ene

rgy C

onsum

p.

on on 2005 (EJ)

Kerosene Gas Coal Electricity LPG TradBiomass Applian ce 10.5% Cooling 2.5% HeaHng 0.1% Cooking 77.2% LighHng 9.6% Applianc e 1.8% Cooling 0.1% Heating 0.0% Cooking 93.9% Lighting 4.2% Applian ce 13.8% Cooling 2.9% HeaHng 0.3% Cooking 75.9% LighHng 7.2%

Source: IEA (2007)

(7)

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

India

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

Building

Floorspace

Rural

Building

Floorspace

Heating

Cooling

Cooking

Lighting

Appliance

Heating

Cooling

Cooking

Lighting

Appliance

Heating

Cooling

Cooking

Lighting

Equipment

AC

Air Cooler

Heater

Cooker

Incandescent

Fluorescent

Solidstate

Lamp

Appliances

Equipment

Coal

Gas

Oil

Electricity

Biomass

Trad. biomass

End-Use

Technologies

Urbanization

Floorspace

_Expansion

Delivered

Fuels

Socioeconomic

Assumption

The Detailed Model for Building Energy Use in India

•  Model framework based on Eom et al. (2011)

(8)

I D

t

D

t

k

P

I

Demand

ε

=

1

, 1

,

₋

−

=

S St

t

S

t

k

P

Supply

ε

Floor space price

[$ / m

2

]

Floor space per capita [m

2

_{per capita]}

Demand

increases

with income

Parameters estimated based

on National Sample Survey

Organization (NSSO) data

(9)

Drivers of energy consumption

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 m 2/ ca p ita

Per capita floorspace

Rural Urban 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 20 05 T h o u sa n d U SD

Per capita income

Rural Urban National Average 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 Mi lli o n s

Population

Rural Urban

Increasing population in urban

areas to drive floor space and

energy service demands

Per capita income gap assumed

to converge by 2200

(10)

(11)

Demand for Space Heating Service [GJ-output/m

2

_]

_:

(

)

⎥

⎦

⎤

⎢

⎣

⎡

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎝

⎛

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎝

⎛

⋅

−

⋅

−

⋅

=

t H t H t H t t t H t H

P

Y

in

InternalGa

io

SurfaceRat

ShellEff

HDD

k

Q

, ,

2 ln

exp

1 α

λ

Demand for Space Cooling Service [GJ-output/m

2

_]

Demand for Other Services (water heating & cooking, lighting, other appliances):

⎥

⎦

⎤

⎢

⎣

⎡

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎝

⎛

⎟⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜⎜

⎝

⎛

⋅

−

⋅

=

t t i i t

P

Y

k

Q

α

2 ln

exp

1 (

)

⎥

⎦

⎤

⎢

⎣

⎡

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎝

⎛

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎝

⎛

⋅

−

⋅

+

⋅

=

t C t C t C t t t C t C

P

Y

in

InternalGa

io

SurfaceRat

ShellEff

CDD

k

Q

, ,

2 ln

exp

1 α

λ

Space Heating Requirement (satiated demand)

Economic Behavior

Modeling the Change in Service Demands

(12)

12

Service

Technology

Fuel

Space Cooling

Air condiHoner

Electric

Air cooler

Electric

Space HeaHng

Room heater

Electric

Building heater

Electric

Cooking and Water

HeaHng

Gas cooker

Liqueﬁed Petroleum Gas

Gas cooker

Natural Gas

Electric cooker

Electric

Coal cooker

Coal

Biomass cooker

Commercial biomass

TradiHonal biomass cooker

TradiHonal biomass

Kerosene stove

Kerosene

LighHng

Incandescent bulbs

Electric

Fluorescent bulbs

Electric

Solid state lighHng

Electric

Oil Lamp

Kerosene

Appliances

Generic appliance technology

Electric

(13)

The Long-Term Evolution of India’s

Building Energy Use

(14)

14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 Re si de nH al F lo or sp ac e pe r c ap ita [m 2]

GDP per capita [thous. 2000 USD at PPP]

US 1990-‐2004 Denmark 1990-‐2004 Norway 1990-‐2004 Canada 1990-‐2004 NZ 1990-‐2004 UK 1990-‐2004 Japan 1990-‐2004 Netherlands 1990-‐2004 China urban 1985-‐2005 China rural 1985-‐2005 India urban projected (2005 and onwards)

India rural projected (2005 and onwards) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Co m m er ci al F lo or sp ac e pe r c ap ita [m 2]

GDP per capita [thous. 2000 USD at PPP]

Canada 1990-‐2004 Denmark 1990-‐2004 Norway 1990-‐2004 NZ 1990-‐2004 UK 1990-‐2004 Japan 1990-‐2004 US 1990-‐2004 China 1985-‐2005 India projected (2005 and onwards)

Floor Space Expansion

(15)

Final energy consumption by service:

Rural-Urban

Ø

 

Rapid expansion of cooling and appliances: results include

changing degree day effect

Ø

 

Significant share of cooking also in the future

0

4

8

12

16 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

Rural

Cooking Appliance Cooling LighHng HeaHng

0

4

8

12

16 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

Urban

(16)

16 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2005 2020 2050 2095 A vg n o . o f u n its p er H H Urban-AC Urban-Cooler Rural-AC Rural-Cooler

Space cooling technologies

q Low penetration of

space cooling

technologies in the base

year

q High increase in AC

ownership in the urban

households between

2020 and 2050

q For rural households,

this increase comes after

2050

(17)

17 0 4 8 12 16 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ

Final energy by fuel-‐ Rural

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Final energy by fuel-‐ Urban

Kerosene Gas Coal LPG Electricity Biomass TradBiomass

Ø Dominance of electricity for cooling, heating, appliances, and

lighting

Ø Gas, predominantly LPG, for cooking, takes a significant share

Ø Rapid phase out of traditional biomass

(18)

18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Electricity (GJ/capita)

Rural Urban 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

LPG (GJ/capita)

Rural Urban

Electricity and LPG

Ø Significant difference in urban and rural households’ consumption of

electricity and LPG in 2005

Ø Rapid increase in per capita electricity consumption, moving towards

developed country levels

(19)

19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

EJ

Final Energy by service

HeaHng

LighHng

Cooling

Appliance

Cooking

Aggregate final energy by service

o Commercial sector takes 48% share in buildings final energy consumption by

century-end, similar to developed countries

o Cooling, appliances, and lighting increase rapidly

o Share of energy services similar to current profile of developed countries

(Note:

US heating and cooling have been adjusted by degree days for comparative

purpose)

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

US-

2005

India-

2095

India-

2050

India-US Comparison

(20)

Impact of Climate Policy

• Low effect of carbon tax as

limited substitution possibilities

• Total final energy for India

decreases by 15% in 2095,

Almost 8% decrease in final

energy in building sector under

a climate policy

• Alternative energy reduction

policies important for Indian

building sector

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ

Final Energy-‐ Climate Policy

Kerosene Gas Coal LPG Electricity Biomass TradBiomass 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ

Final Energy-‐ BAU

Kerosene Gas Coal LPG Electricity Biomass TradBiomass 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 EJ

Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand for India: Disaggregating end use energy services in an integrated assessment modeling framework

Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Jiyong Eom and Leon E. Clarke

JGCRI, USA

Priyadarshi R. Shukla

IIM Ahmedabad, India

Long-Term Evolution of Building Energy Demand

for India: Disaggregating end use energy services

in an integrated assessment modeling framework

Some recent efforts using GCAM- IIM version

!

Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V. 2011.

Sustainable energy

transformations in India under climate policy

. Sustainable

Development, DOI: 10.1002/sd.516

!

Shukla PR and Chaturvedi V.

Low carbon and clean

energy scenarios for India: A targeted approach

. Under

review

!

Chaturvedi V, Eom J, Clarke LE and Shukla PR.

Modeling

long term building energy demand for India.

Background

!

High economic growth expected for India, more than 8-9%

in the near future (Assumptions based on GoI documents)

!

Population more than 1.2 Bn

!

Rapid urbanization

!

Managing energy demand and ensuring adequate and

reliable energy supply important challenges for Indian policy

Modeling Building Energy Use:

Building energy consumption in India

• More than 45% of total

final energy in India

consumed in the building

sector in 2005

• High reliance on traditional

biomass

• Significant difference in

rural and urban energy

consumption profiles

Final energy consumption

India Buildings’ Energy Consumption (2005)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Urban

Rural

Commercial

Ene

rgy C

onsum

p.

on on 2005 (EJ)

Source: IEA (2007)

Energy Service

Demands

Commercial

Building

Floorspace

India

Population

GDP

Urban

population

GDP

Rural

population

GDP

Urban

• More than 45% of total

• High reliance on traditional

• Significant difference in

_Expansion

•  Model framework based on Eom et al. (2011)