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ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing

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Figure

Figure 1. A two-dimensional projection of an inter-model distance space, showing different models and observational estimates, with aradius around models that could be used to determine model dependence
Figure 2. (a)“observations” approximated by a noisy linear trend. In contrast, panelthe same distribution, both shown as noise about a linear trend, andmodels and observations
Figure 3. Figure TS.23 taken from the Technical Summary of WG1in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, showing the multi-modelmean’s decreased variability (red) relative to individual models (yel-low) and observations (black), as well as the effect of volcanic forc-ing on ensemble behaviour.

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