• No results found

European Credit Risk Outlook. Results of the Seventh European Credit Risk Managers Survey

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "European Credit Risk Outlook. Results of the Seventh European Credit Risk Managers Survey"

Copied!
29
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

European Credit Risk Outlook

Results of the Seventh European Credit Risk Managers Survey

March 2013

(2)

Contents

Introduction ...3

Summary ...4

Key findings and analysis...5

Credit delinquencies ...5

DaCh: delinquencies ...6

Iberian Peninsula: delinquencies ...7

UK/Ireland: delinquencies ...8

Credit supply and demand ...9

DaCh: credit supply and demand ...10

Iberian Peninsula: credit supply and demand ...11

UK/Ireland: credit supply and demand ...12

Interest rates ...13

analytic priorities for 2013 ...14

DaCh: analytic priorities for 2013 ...15

Iberian Peninsula: analytic priorities for 2013 ...16

UK/Ireland: analytic priorities for 2013 ...17

Market perspectives...18 Cüneyt Sezgin, PhD ...19 Manuel Goncalves ...21 Stefan Sonnenberg ...23 Respondents’ profile ...25 Project sponsors ...28

(3)

Europe’s relationship with its banking sector remains difficult. as we were compiling this report, the European Union voted to cap bankers’ bonuses — seemingly a vote of low confidence, driven in large part by negative attitudes forged in the economic crisis of 2008. at the same time, there are loud calls in several countries, particularly the UK, for banks to loosen the purse strings and extend more credit to consumers and small businesses. This issue of credit supply and demand — and which one is lagging the other — is explored in the seventh European Credit Risk Managers survey, conducted by FICO and Efma in February 2013.

Because of the importance of analytics across the lifecycle of consumer credit, we asked risk managers about their priorities in this area for 2013. Their responses show the relative importance placed on consumer credit risk models, collection models, fraud models and the use of optimization to improve lending strategies.

In this report, we have added a new section: interviews with key figures in European banks. Their perspectives provide even richer insights into regional trends, and what the leaders are doing to drive growth amidst continuing challenges.

Findings from this survey will in turn help to inform the Risk Managers advisory Council, a group of European risk professionals formed by Efma and sponsored by FICO, and to enliven discussion at the RMaC meetings.

We are grateful to the 130+ executives from across Europe who put forward their views in this survey.

Mike Gordon

Senior Vice President, Sales, Services and Marketing, FICO

Introduction

Patrick Desmarès

Secretary General Efma

(4)

FICO and Efma conducted a survey of credit trends in February 2012 with risk professionals in Europe. The aim of this survey is to provide a forward view of potential growth and challenges in the granting of consumer credit.

Participants included credit-granting institutions ranging from local banks to global institutions. More than 130 representatives from 41 European countries and 105 companies responded to this survey. The survey asked participants for their forecast of credit risk and supply / demand over the next six months, and for their outlook for 2013 on several critical issues. Results of this survey show:

• Analytic investments are priorities for banks across regions. More than 40% of respondents say they will invest in improving their analytics for a host of functions, with the highest priorities being credit risk models for applicants (61% of respondents) and customers (50%).

• 38% of respondents say they will increase their investment in risk analytics that assess Big Data. • 26% of respondents say they will increase their investment in marketing analytics that assess Big Data. • The “credit gap” for small businesses shrank from the highs observed last year. While 41% expect the aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to increase, 29% expect the amount granted by lenders to increase. The projected gap for consumers is also lower, with 30% of respondents projecting some increase in the amount of credit requested, and 26% projecting an increase in supply. • The forecast for delinquencies is similar to that in the last survey, with more than 50% of respondents

forecasting even higher delinquencies on mortgages and credit cards.

This report shares the key findings for all respondents, and in addition breaks out specific responses by three regions: DACH (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and

Portugal) and the United Kingdom / Ireland. Members of the Efma Risk Management Advisory Council will have access to more detailed of results of survey responses from enterprises in Turkey and Central and Eastern Europe.

The European Credit Risk Managers Outlook was prepared by Efma and FICO.

(5)

Credit delinquencies

We are evaluating a divided region, containing both strong and weak economies, which makes an overall view like this less revealing than the regional views that follow. That said, in most areas of Europe there is still a great deal of uncertainty, even amongst risk managers, as to where the economy is headed, and with it consumers’ credit health. This is particularly challenging for multi-national banks, which must blend multiple strategies and regulatory demands to satisfy both the Board and the bank’s own risk goals.

Key findings and analysis

The level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to The level of credit card delinquencies to The level of auto loan delinquencies to The level of small business loan delinquencies to The level of overdrafts to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

Delinquencies

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(6)

DACH: delinquencies

The DACH GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2012 by 0.6%, largely due to weaker foreign trade, since domestic household and government consumption went up slightly. Is this enough to explain the increased pessimism on delinquencies compared with our last survey? Probably not. As discussed in the last survey, it is imperative for risk managers to focus on profitability as the strength of consumer payments begins to soften.

The level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to The level of credit card delinquencies to The level of auto loan delinquencies to The level of small business loan delinquencies to The level of overdrafts to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

DACH Delinquencies

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(7)

Iberian Peninsula: delinquencies

Bankers here remain pessimistic, of course, but the number projecting that the delinquencies will stay about the same is higher than previously. Does that mean the region has reached the bottom? Unfortunately, no. Bank rescues and fusions/acquisitions are not done yet and, despite the mortgage losses and other subsequent “bad portfolio” recognition, unemployment and GDP contraction are still rising. Our message remains to combine your best collection strategies with your best negotiation skills and focus on exposure reduction.

The level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to The level of credit card delinquencies to The level of auto loan delinquencies to The level of small business loan delinquencies to The level of overdrafts to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

Iberia Delinquencies

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(8)

UK/Ireland: delinquencies

A number of major UK retail lenders have reported to us that they are seeing deteriorating credit performance — resulting in significant and persistent prediction that portfolio losses will be greater than would be expected given current economic conditions. So while the figures in this survey appear better than the last one, few expect clear skies ahead. The situation demands sophisticated moves from risk managers, who need to merge the realities of their portfolio with macroeconomic data to allow better forecasting.

The level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to The level of credit card delinquencies to The level of auto loan delinquencies to The level of small business loan delinquencies to The level of overdrafts to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

UK Delinquencies

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(9)

Credit supply and demand

The trend here is similar to our previous survey, but the “credit gap” for small businesses shrank from the highs observed last year. While 41% expect the aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to increase, 29% expect the amount granted by lenders to increase. The projected gap for consumers is also lower, with 30% of respondents projecting some increase in the amount of credit requested, and 26% projecting an increase in supply. As noted above, the regional differences are substantial, and this graph describes a divided Europe.

Better risk management practices and strategies will never eliminate the gap, but will help banks to better select the consumers for credit approvals and manage their exposure to risk. At the end of the day, this is the road to profitability.

The amount of small business credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of small business credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to The volume of small business credit/loan applications to The amount of consumer credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of consumer credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to The volume of consumer credit/loan applications to The average balance on credit card accounts to The approval criteria for common credit & loan products to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(10)

DACH: credit supply and demand

Bankers in this region are optimistic about the return of credit demand. As shown, they also have money to lend, as approval rates are predicted to improve. Still, demand appears to be outstripping supply. Risk managers in this region tend to be cautious when granting credit. Any bad sign, such as the GDP contraction last quarter, makes them hit the brakes. Efma and FICO suggest macroeconomic forecasting for credit decisions, using optimization and aggregating economic variables into decision strategies.

The amount of small business credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of small business credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to The volume of small business credit/loan applications to The amount of consumer credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of consumer credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to The volume of consumer credit/loan applications to The average balance on credit card accounts to The approval criteria for common credit & loan products to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(11)

Iberian Peninsula: credit supply and demand

Bankers in the Iberian region continue to be pessimistic about both supply and demand. Tight economic measures have brought GDP reduction, unemployment, increased loss forecasts and, obviously, credit supply and demand gaps. Since the last survey Spanish banks were rescued, the government is apparently out of the bailout risk and Portugal is improving its economic performance. But again, this does not yet help risk managers, who will continue their tight control over their portfolios. Economic growth is a must, to reduce youth unemployment and avoid creating a “lost generation” that will decrease future revenue for banks.

The amount of small business credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of small business credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to The volume of small business credit/loan applications to The amount of consumer credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of consumer credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to The volume of consumer credit/loan applications to The average balance on credit card accounts to The approval criteria for common credit & loan products to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(12)

UK/Ireland: credit supply and demand

Bankers here keep their eyes on the compass and a steady hand at the helm. Turbulent waters and delinquencies are high, but bankers indicate they will respond to Bank of England incentives for new lending, which translates here to a forecast for a very low credit gap. Efma and FICO’s recommendation remains: better analytics, optimization and a focus on profitability.

The amount of small business credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of small business credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to The volume of small business credit/loan applications to The amount of consumer credit extended by lenders to The approval rate of consumer credit/loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to The volume of consumer credit/loan applications to The average balance on credit card accounts to The approval criteria for common credit & loan products to

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next six months, do you expect:

(13)

Interest rates

The forecast here remains virtually unchanged from our last survey. Now, as then, bankers say uncertainty is causing paralysis.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Decrease significantly Decrease somewhat Stay about the same Increase somewhat Increase significantly Looking at the banking industry in your region, over the next

(14)

Analytic priorities for 2013

Analytic investments are priorities for banks across regions. More than 40% of respondents say they will invest in improving their analytics for a host of functions, with the highest priorities being credit risk models for applicants (61% of respondents) and customers (50%).

We see here lower priorities for newer analytical applications, such as using Big Data and optimization. This reflects the conservatism that is natural during a sustained economic crisis. That said, moments like these demand innovation. Using additional data for portfolio management brings extensive benefits,

Decrease spend No spending in 2013 Business as usual Increase spend

Significantly increase spend

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Incorporating Big Data into risk analytics Incorporating Big Data into marketing analytics Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on credit pricing strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on marketing campaign strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on customer management strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on collections and recovery strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on originations strategies Predicting likely repayment amounts for customers in collections Detecting on-going first-party fraud Detecting fraudulent credit applications Predicting how customer risk will change if the economy changes Improving the assessment of credit risk for existing customers Improving the assessment of credit risk for small business applicants Improving the assessment of credit risk for consumer credit applicants Identifying ability of existing customers to take on new credit Predicting customer needs for specific credit products

(15)

DACH: analytic priorities for 2013

At a first glance, the main concern at this region appears to be credit risk only. But half of the

respondents also want to increase the prediction of customer needs for specific credit products. The new analytic approaches using optimization and Big Data can help both of these areas. Another benefit of these techniques is that they connect risk, marketing, sales and treasury. More institutions around the world are investing on optimization as a “silo buster,” with excellent results. And best of all is that those mathematical approaches reinforce the existing investment in analytics, using all the existing models and strategies as a means to further bottom-line performance.

Decrease spend No spending in 2013 Business as usual Increase spend

Significantly increase spend

Incorporating Big Data into risk analytics Incorporating Big Data into marketing analytics Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on credit pricing strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on marketing campaign strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on customer management strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on collections and recovery strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on originations strategies Predicting likely repayment amounts for customers in collections Detecting on-going first-party fraud Detecting fraudulent credit applications Predicting how customer risk will change if the economy changes Improving the assessment of credit risk for existing customers Improving the assessment of credit risk for small business applicants Improving the assessment of credit risk for consumer credit applicants Identifying ability of existing customers to take on new credit Predicting customer needs for specific credit products

(16)

Iberian Peninsula: analytic priorities for 2013

This is the approach of a collections-focused region: How to foresee economic changes, predict repayments and optimize collections and recoveries. The objective is to stay in a safe port during the storm. No Big Data, no new credit, no marketing campaigns.

But is this really safe? The best way to keep afloat in turbulent waters is with the best instruments. The latest technology can bring the risk manager a better chance to safeguard customers, relationships and profitability.

Decrease spend No spending in 2013 Business as usual Increase spend

Significantly increase spend

Incorporating Big Data into risk analytics Incorporating Big Data into marketing analytics Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on credit pricing strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on marketing campaign strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on customer management strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on collections and recovery strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on originations strategies Predicting likely repayment amounts for customers in collections Detecting on-going first-party fraud Detecting fraudulent credit applications Predicting how customer risk will change if the economy changes Improving the assessment of credit risk for existing customers Improving the assessment of credit risk for small business applicants Improving the assessment of credit risk for consumer credit applicants Identifying ability of existing customers to take on new credit Predicting customer needs for specific credit products

(17)

UK/Ireland: analytic priorities for 2013

Banks in this region are quite sophisticated in terms of analytic and predictive models, and they benefit from a positive bureau, which dramatically increases the analytic power of a region. But analytic sophistication boosts, rather than shrinks, demand for further analytic innovation. Especially in the current economic environment, analytics represent the best way to differentiate between customers and drive better profitability and capital return. That’s why it is somewhat odd to see the lack of growth in optimization, which can provide a much stronger focus on Return over Risk Weighted Assets. Optimization can breach boundaries between different bank silos, unite goals and efficiently manage today’s scarcest resource: capital.

Decrease spend No spending in 2013 Business as usual Increase spend

Significantly increase spend

Incorporating Big Data into risk analytics Incorporating Big Data into marketing analytics Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on credit pricing strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on marketing campaign strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on customer management strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on collections and recovery strategies Optimizing profit and business trade-offs on originations strategies Predicting likely repayment amounts for customers in collections Detecting on-going first-party fraud Detecting fraudulent credit applications Predicting how customer risk will change if the economy changes Improving the assessment of credit risk for existing customers Improving the assessment of credit risk for small business applicants Improving the assessment of credit risk for consumer credit applicants Identifying ability of existing customers to take on new credit Predicting customer needs for specific credit products

(18)

In order to provide more insight into the trends observed in our regular survey, FICO and Efma have interviewed leaders in European credit risk management. Their perspectives provide a richer picture of the regional challenges facing banks and lenders. FICO and Efma thank these VIPs for their contributions.

Cüneyt Sezgin, PhD

Board and Audit Committee Member Garanti Bank

Manuel Goncalves

Director, Risk and Decision Models Unit

Millennium bcp

Stefan Sonnenberg

Senior Vice President,

(19)

European Credit Risk Outlook

How is the demand for consumer credit changing in your markets?

Despite the global macroeconomic troubles of recent years, the Turkish economy displayed significant growth, supported both by a strong banking system and successful public sector budget performance. The increase in consumer income due to continuous growth, coupled with a sharp decrease in interest rates, stimulated the consumer credit market, making it the biggest winner of the positive macro environment. Several fundamental factors will fuel the growth in the Turkish consumer market for the foreseeable future. These include a relatively high population growth rate, a young population, continuous urbanization, changes in demographics (increasing the number of smaller families) and better education. Increasing penetration of the banking system with stronger funding and product diversification contributes to growing demand. When supported with favorable macroeconomic conditions, demand for consumer credit has grown stronger than any other segment, and we expect that to continue.

The expectations for 2013 are in line with this picture. The consumer credit market is expected to display strong performance — between 15-20 percent growth in all sub-segments.

Cüneyt Sezgin, PhD

Board and Audit Committee Member Garanti Bank

(20)

investment to improve the management of delinquent retail loans.

Concurrently, we changed our collection process and started using specialized software and a process developed with a consultancy company. To increase the efficiency of our segmentation and to prioritize the customers we call, we implemented a new segmentation model. The whole structure is based on early warning, much closer and more proactive follow-ups, offering help to borrowers with loan restructurings whenever applicable, and continuous measurement of the system’s performance.

How is your bank working to meet the market for small business loans and credit cards? Is this a growing need in your markets?

Most of the new business growth in the corporate sector is coming from the SME segment. Loans represent the primary relationship between banks and SMEs, as other financing alternatives for smaller companies are not well developed and sophisticated in this market. TL cash loans to SMEs represented 37 percent of total TL cash loans in 2012, and this ratio has been continuously increasing. But it would be an underestimation to say that the relationship is limited to loans. In most cases, banks play a house bank and consultant role for smaller companies, which otherwise have very limited access to other financial intermediaries or vehicles. The Turkish credit cards market, in general, has been one of the most buoyant ones in all of Europe over the last two decades. Strong demand was stimulated further by banks and merchants with very convenient installment plans. Garanti has always enjoyed a leading position in that market.

at the company level, too, product development has been key for growing card usage. Garanti recently introduced a new card to support SMEs for their extra liquidity needs. With this card, SMEs can also get the benefit of special discounts for their industrial needs. In addition, a new card product has been introduced for start-up SMEs, which provides financing and services including consulting to entrepreneurs who want to start a new business but need collateral.

What are your bank’s analytic priorities this year? How will you advance your use of analytics to make lending decisions?

We increased the use of analytics, particularly in our retail and SME lending, by implementing new application scoring models, and new capacity and limit calculation algorithms. By developing an umbrella score approach, where one score summarizes the customer’s application, behavioural and bureau scores, it is much easier to control the score cut-offs for approved loans and to analyse our lending decisions. Using all internal and external data, we run several models for applicants, such as estimated

(21)

European Credit Risk Outlook

How is the demand for consumer credit changing in your markets?

households are now borrowing again in Portugal, in spite of some persistent adverse conditions, like stubborn GDP contraction, resulting in rising unemployment and increased emigration, and a

persistent decrease of disposable income due to higher taxes and pay cuts.

In 2011 Portuguese banks were required to deleverage, while meeting higher capital requirements and managing scarce liquidity, as part of the international financial assistance program. The structure of consumer credit demand changed dramatically because of constraints on lending, lower borrowing capacity and lack of confidence by consumers. Residential mortgage lending was especially affected.

Have delinquencies been changing in your markets? What is your bank doing differently to work with consumers in financial distress?

household delinquencies have been rising in Portugal since the Lehman collapse. Delinquencies doubled in non-residential consumer loans and increased by 150% in financing for single-owner

Manuel Goncalves

Manuel Goncalves

Director, Risk and Decision Models Unit

(22)

The bank reinforced prompt assistance to financially distressed consumers, both reactively and proactively, through automated detection of early warning signals. Simultaneously, unintended collections-driven customer attrition is tracked and systematic corrective actions are taken. Intensified use of analytics supports better allocation of resources and capacity planning, thus contributing to gains in effectiveness and efficiency.

How is your bank working to meet the market for small business loans and credit cards? Is this a growing need in your markets?

In 2013, Millennium bcp’s aim is to significantly increase lending to selected market segments, in particular small business loans and non-residential consumer loans.

Marketing will target promising small business customers in order to support economic recovery. Small businesses that export goods and services are a natural priority, because domestic demand has persistently declined since 2009.

Credit cards and consumer loans are convenient solutions to meet households’ payment and borrowing needs.

Unemployment is rising heterogeneously among regions, economic sectors and consumer segments. Our bank takes into account both credit risk and borrowing capacity when servicing consumers’ needs.

What are your bank’s analytic priorities this year? How will you advance your use of analytics to make lending decisions?

Millennium bcp uses analytics at each stage of the retail consumer business cycle. analytics provide valuable insight through data-driven segmentation and predictions to support decisions and informed action.

Recently the focus of analytics has been, of course, credit monitoring, collections and recoveries, making the best use of internal data and exploring advances in some promising modeling techniques. Particular attention is paid to retaining and regaining customers.

On the lending side, the bank uses credit risk models compliant with IRB requirements. although consumer lending is a mature process using analytics to support risk classification, marketing,

Manuel Goncalves

Director, Risk and Decision Models Unit

(23)

European Credit Risk Outlook

How is the demand for consumer credit changing in your markets?

There has been just a slightly increasing demand in the German consumer market over the last few years, but we were able to grow by about 12 percent in 2012 and we are optimistic to beat the market also in 2013. The competition in Germany is really challenging and based on the low interest rate from the ECB the margins are under pressure. What we see over the past few months is strongly increasing demand for mortgage loans. In 2012 we were not able to avoid a shrinking mortgage loan book, but we will try to re-establish growth through some sustainable initiatives. We see good opportunities because there is no “bubble” in Germany, a fact recently confirmed by Deutsche Bundesbank. We were quite conservative in recent years and the capital ratio of hypoVereinsbank is comfortable. So there is no reason for us not to be somewhat optimistic.

Stefan Sonnenberg

Senior Vice President, Head of Retail & SME Credit HypoVereinsbank – Member of UniCredit

(24)

How is your bank working to meet the market for small business loans and credit cards? Is this a growing need in your markets?

The SME market in Germany is also quite robust, based on sustainable business models, increasing capital ratios and therefore a relatively low rate of insolvencies. Unfortunately, the credit demand by small businesses is decreasing, driven by the forecast uncertainty in Europe. Many companies are still waiting to make investments in assets like machines, equipment and even buildings.

Nevertheless, we were able to grow by more than 10 percent last year, much more than the majority of our competitors. Our success factors are our wide product range including subsidised loans (special loan types by KfW or EIB), advanced consulting tools for our qualified Relationship Managers, and the well-known special industry know-how of UniCredit/hypoVereinsbank in financing the German “Mittelstand” (including SME) and professionals like doctors and consultants.

Credit cards are mostly used as charge cards in Germany, so they are not really relevant in terms of granting loans.

What are your bank’s analytic priorities this year? How will you advance your use of analytics to make lending decisions?

We are using competitive scoring and rating systems to support the credit decision. For a fast credit decision for smaller loans, we are working on an “automatic pre-decision tool” based on facts and figures including behavioural scores and internal and external data. For bigger loans, we really believe in a sensible mixture of tools and experienced credit specialists in the regions, along with the specialized industry know-how in our hQ.

This conservative strategy was really successful in recent years. Our cost of risk level in the retail and SME segment is the benchmark in Germany, and also in our Group. Based on this we are optimistic for 2013, despite the forecast for lower GDP growth in the first half of 2013 in Germany.

(25)

European Credit Risk Outlook

Respondents to the fourth European Credit Risk Managers Survey comprised 132 individuals from 41 European countries and 105 companies. Respondents included representatives from smaller institutions as well as global banks, and the majority (72%) are from full-service banks.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 CFO/ Finance CIO/ IT Small Business Lines of Credit Current Accounts Auto Loans Credit/

Debit Cards Mortgages

Respondent Area 10,001–50,000 22% 50,001–100,000 4% 5,001–10,000 11% 1–5,000 63%

Number of Employees

Respondent area of responsibility

Number of employees

(26)

Respondents are overwhelmingly affiliated with full-service banks, giving the sample a high degree of homogeneity in business orientation.

500,001– 1,000,000 12% 250,001– 500,000 9% 50,001– 250,000 7% 1–50,000 9% Over 5 million 29% 2 million– 5 million 16% 1 million–2 million 18% Credit Card Monoline 3% Mortgage Lender 7% Building Society 3% Retailer or Finance Company 13% Full-Service Bank 74%

Business Orientation

Business orientation

(27)

European Credit Risk Outlook

again, the multi-national focus of respondents reflects the make-up of the European banking structure.

Benelux 9% United Kingdom/Ireland 9% Other European 60% Iberian Peninsula 9% DACH Region 10% Turkey 3%

Country Respondent

Country of respondent Global 16% Multi-Country 25% National 59%

Bank Operating Region

(28)

FICO (NYSE:FICO), formerly known as Fair Isaac, delivers superior predictive analytics that drive better decisions. as a pioneer in applying mathematics to solve business problems, FICO gives businesses the power to make more effective decisions based on sharper forecasts of consumer behavior. FICO’s revolutionary solutions include the leading credit scores as well as leading global solutions for credit account management and fraud management. Most of the world’s top banks, as well as leading insurers, retailers, healthcare and pharma companies and government agencies, rely on the analytic advantage of FICO solutions to accelerate growth, control risk, reduce costs and meet regulatory and competitive demands.

FICO

5th Floor, Cottons Centre, hays Lane London SE1 2QP

United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0)207 940 8718 www.fico.com

as a global not-for-profit organisation, Efma brings together more than 3,300 retail financial services companies from over 130 countries. With a membership base consisting of almost a third of all large retail banks worldwide, Efma has proven to be a valuable resource for the global industry, offering members exclusive access to a multitude of resources, databases, studies, articles, news feeds and publications. Efma also provides numerous networking opportunities through working groups, online communities and international meetings.

Efma

8, rue Bayen - 75017 Paris France

Tel: +33 (0)1 47 42 52 72 www.efma.com

(29)

European Credit Risk Outlook

Results of the Seventh European Credit Risk Managers Survey

March 2013

References

Related documents

In order to compare the computational costs of cuTauLeaping with respect to a standard CPU-based implementation of the original tau-leaping algorithm, we carry out different batches

If you wish to travel directly from Malpensa Airport to the Forum Venue, take the Malpensa Express train, direction to Milano Centrale, and get off at Milano Nord Bovisa FN

$5,575 Our charge for this service includes local transfer of remains to funeral home, embalming, basic services of funeral director and staff, dressing, casketing cosmetizing

Gravesite Service ( open casket ), service fee, embalming, dressing & casketing, washing & disinfecting, gravesite service & equipment, removal within 40 m of funeral

Available in (7-537GL) white finish with gold shading exterior, gold stationary handles, white crepe interior; (7-537P) white finish with pink shading exterior, silver

From the discussion about the impacts of social media, the participants were able to identify both negative and positive examples of social media impact on them.. The

Identificiranje sa skupinom ljudi pomoću odjeće vidimo u obliku crvene kape iz Splita koja se nosila kroz 20. stoljeće kao znak nacionalnosti onoga koji