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Grid scale fluctuations and forecast error in wind power

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Figure

Figure 1. (and the instantaneous forecast errordecaying tails that are broad relative to a Gaussian distributiona) Raw time series (for 10 d) of the generated power pg(t) (black empty circles), forecast power pf (t) (red empty squares), pd(t) (blue empty t
Figure 2. (Ctimescales obtained from thesubsequent analysis.a) The five-year trends for pg(t) (solid black line) and Pf (t) (dashed red line) are subtracted from the raw time series in (b) Log-linear scale: autocorrelation functions CG( )t(empty black circles), CF( )t(empty red squares) andD(t) (empty blue triangles) for Pg(t), PF(t) and PD(t), respectively, exhibit exponential decorrelation with respective characteristic fit to data oftG =80.94points (20.24 h),tF =81points (20.24 h) andtD =25.86points (∼6.5 h).Every third data point is plotted for easy visibility.
Figure 3. Structure functions of orderSfor forecast power, thegenerated and F for forecast powerobserved for n=1–10 (solid red circles) and their power-law fits (solid black lines) for (a) generated powernG( )tand (b) forecast power SnF( )tplotted versus
Figure 4. (with scaling restored forgreen line fora) Log–log scale: cross-structure functions XnFG( )tversus τ (solid red circles) exhibit no scaling at early timest10, 10<t<40
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