CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE

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Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 1/65

Southeast Asia / Philippines

Version Nº: 1

Location (country, region/area): Philippines, Southeast Asia

Covering period: From Aug. to Dec. of 2010

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Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 2/65

1. BACKGROUND AND EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 Background

Reasons for the CP implementation within the Philippines

The Philippines is very prone to different kinds of hazards. Located within a very active typhoon belt, an average of 20 typhoons visits the country annually. The country is also within the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’—a large series of volcanoes encircling the Pacific Ocean (www.worldatlas.com, 2010). At least five earthquakes occur daily in the Philippines (PHIVOLCS, 2006). The country’s geographical and physical characteristics may have significantly contributed to these (DepEd, 2008). For the past few years, several major natural disasters hit the country: the 2004 Quezon and Aurora Provinces landslides and flash floods; the 2006 Southern Leyte Province landslide that buried a whole village; the 2006 series of strong typhoons that hit several provinces and Metro Manila, 2007 Albay Province mudflow from Mayon Volcano; and, the 2009 series of typhoons that flooded a great part of Metro Manila and other provinces.

Aside from natural hazards, recurring armed conflict besiege the Philippines. The conflict between the government and rebel group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) led to the displacement of close to 800,000 people (NDCC, 2009) in Regions X, XII and ARMM in Mindanao from 2008 to 2009. Displacements occur from time to time, as sporadic fighting continues to bring restive conditions. Aside from the MILF, the government also continues to intensify its operations against terrorist group Abu Sayyaf and against another rebel group the New People’s Army (NPA).

Regular occurrence of natural disasters and ongoing armed conflict in the country provides some challenges to many organizations in responding efficiently. Some of these challenges are time constraint, enormous needs, and complex coordination (UNHCR, 2003). Disaster managers often have to make fast decisions within a limited time frame. They often have to make do with limited resources even when the need is great. Moreover, complex coordination processes with other responding organizations seem to slow down the response pace.

With these realities, contingency planning for disasters become more important. Contingency planning looks into specific potential events or emerging situations that might threaten society or the environment and establishes arrangements in advance to enable timely, effective and appropriate responses to such events and situations (ACFIN, 2009). It must be noted that many of the constraints during disaster response operations may be avoided by planning ahead before emergencies and critical situations. Through planning, the triggers, procedures and resources may be identified to help ACF immediately and efficiently respond to future and on-going emergencies. Moreover, an internal analysis of ACFIN Philippines mission suggests the need to formulate a contingency plan at the mission level which is integrated with the regional contingency plan (ACFIN, 2009).

General and specific objectives of the plan

The general objective is to develop a disaster response and contingency plan for ACF to guide it in efficiently responding to emergencies in the Philippines for year 2010.

Specifically, the plan intends to:

a. provide analysis of the economic, political and demographic profiles of the country that will directly impact on its disaster risk;

b. provide country hazard and risk analysis;

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Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 3/65 d. develop standard operating procedures for overall management and coordination of ACFIN

Philippines mission response to emergencies. Limitations of the plan

For practical reasons, this contingency plan prioritizes the number of hazards / risks that will be used for scenario building and the development of response strategy. It is, however, expected that the other hazards / risks will be tackled and included in contingency planning for the coming years.

To come up with typhoon risk map, a study made by the Manila Observatory was based upon. Human development index (HDI) was updated to year 2007. The formula Risk = Hazard X Vulnerability X Exposure was used. Exposure was limited to the variable ‘population density’. Environment variables such as presence of bodies of water, forest cover and others were not included, as such would be entirely a new study.

In many literatures, capacity is included in the risk formula. For the typhoon risk map, however, this was not used. There is no available literature yet that quantifies and qualifies governance and capacity per province.

Lessons learned in ACFIN responses to emergencies within and outside the country provide valuable information and insights on how to better conduct activities, projects and programs. Hence, this contingency plan should not be treated as final but as a ‘work in progress’. Moreover, changing socio-economic, environmental and political situation in the country and the onset of climate change may alter needs and response prioritization for ACFIN every year. Thus, there is a need to update the plan regularly. Scope and coverage

The contingency plan provides a blueprint for ACFIN response to emergencies throughout the whole country for the year 2010. Hazards and risks are based on demographic, climate and geophysical characteristics of provinces nationwide. The emergency scenarios are based on risks prioritized through likelihood and impact to population in the various regions and provinces. Guided by several criteria agreed upon by the Philippines coordination team, bases and projects staff, the document presents response strategies and implementation plans for three key sectors: nutrition, WASH and food security.

1.2 Institutional policy and framework

The impetus for ACFIN’s position on disaster risk reduction may be summarized in the following points: 1) disasters affect poverty, hunger and poor health thereby directly threatening the organization’s goal; 2) disaster risk reduction is a cross-cutting issue that needs to be integrated into all program strategies; 3) financial partners (such as ECHO. DIPECHO, UN, EU, DFID, SIDA, DANIDA and SDC) recognize, support and implement disaster risk reduction initiatives; and, 4) ACFIN is committed to fulfilling its part in realizing the UN MDGs, the 1994 Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, the 2005 International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005 – 2015 (ACFIN, 2009).

Recognizing the increasing number of people affected by natural disasters and armed conflicts, ACFIN puts a lot of emphasis on improving its disaster risk reduction work. The organization stresses improvement of surveillance techniques, assessment of risks such as those related to climate change and actively seeking to mitigate the effects of the main risks such as those associated with “hunger gaps” (ACFIN, 2009).

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Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 4/65 In the Philippines, ACF works with different organizations and networks to contribute to risk reduction. As a member of the Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) Cluster, ACF actively participates in its meetings, activities and decision-making processes. The Cluster is co-chaired by both UNICEF and the government’s Department of Health (DOH). ACF is also a member of the Philippine International Non-government Organizations Network (PINGON)—a loose organization of major international NGOs in the Philippines. During emergencies, PINGON helps coordinate responses and actions of the network members especially in information gathering. ACF is also a member of the DIPECHO network of partners. Although though not working directly with it, ACF is also influenced by the policies of the National Disaster Coordination Council (NDCC) which will soon be called the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (NDRRMC). As of now, the NDCC is made up of 17 government agencies which collectively function as the main government coordinating body during emergency responses. Created through Presidential Decree 1566, the NDCC uses a tiered approach in responding to disasters by organizing disaster coordinating councils at the regional, provincial, city, municipal up to the barangay levels (DRRNetPhils, 2009).

By virtue of NDCC Circular 5 series of 2007, the country has adopted the UN’s cluster approach. The cluster approach involves a strategic response to emergencies through mobilization of agencies and organizations across 11 key areas of activities or sectors (www.ndcc.gov.ph, 2010). These sectors are nutrition, water-sanitation-hygiene, health, emergency shelter, camp coordination and management, protection, early recovery, logistics, food, agriculture and livelihood. This was further increased to formally include education and emergency telecommunications through NDCC Memorandum 4 series of 2008. While leadership in the clusters are usually attributed to government agencies, designated UN agencies and international organizations also co-lead these clusters. In 2008, NDCC provided guidelines in the coordination of the delivery of humanitarian services to disaster victims and internally displaced persons (NDCC Joint Memorandum 18 s, 2008). The guidelines provide for the registration and participation of all agencies, organizations and individuals intending to participate or contribute to the delivery of humanitarian services to disaster victims of IDPs. It also allowed the participation of registered organizations in coordination meetings to be convened by the DSWD.

1.3 Leading process

Leading teams Name Position Contact

Core CP team Participants

Facilitators Arnaldo Arcadio Rita Petralba

Consultant

DRR Head of Project, ACF

+639215754727

1.4 Reference and bibliography

ACFIN (2009). Disaster Risk Reduction ACFIN Policy.

Department of Education (2008). Disaster Risk Reduction Resource Manual. DepEd: Philippines.

OCHA Disaster Response Preparedness Toolkit, Institutional and Legal Frameworks for Disaster Preparedness and Response

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Contingency plan Philippines 1. Background and executive summary 5/65 PHIVOLCS (2006). Earthquake and Earthquake Hazards. In: www.procurement.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph. 06 April 2010. 3 P.M.

UNHCR and NDCC-OCD (2003). Contingency Planning for Emergencies. 2nd ed. UNHCR Manila: Philippines.

http://www.cdp.org.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/drrmbill-primer.pdf

www.ndcc.gov.ph NDCC Circular 05 s-2007, NDCC Memorandum 04 s-2008, NDCC Joint Memorandum 18 s-2008, Update Sitrep No. 86 Re IDPs in Mindanao.

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 6/65

2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS

Increasing vulnerability Reference: www.observatory.ph

Figure 1. Vulnerability map of the Philippines.

Map source: www.wikipedia.com

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1. GENERAL DATA

Capital: Manila

Area: 300,000 square kilometers

Population size: 88.57 million (2007), 94.01 million (2010 projected) Growth rate: 1.931% (2010 estimate)

Geo-political subdivisions: 17 regions (Annex 1. Philippines Administrative Map), 80 provinces, 138 cities, 1,496 municipalities, 42,025 barangays1

Major languages: Filipino (official; based on Tagalog) and English (official); eight major dialects - Tagalog, Cebuano, Ilocano, Hiligaynon or Ilonggo, Bicol, Waray, Pampango, and Pangasinan

Major religions: Roman Catholic 80.9%, Muslim 5%, Evangelical 2.8%, Iglesia ni Kristo 2.3%, Aglipayan 2%, other Christian 4.5%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.6%, none 0.1% (2000 census)

Ethnic groups: Tagalog 28.1%, Cebuano 13.1%, Ilocano 9%, Bisaya/Binisaya 7.6%, Hiligaynon Ilonggo 7.5%, Bikol 6%, Waray 3.4%, other 25.3% (2000 census)

HDI ranks: 105 (0.751) in 2009 Life expectancy: 71.6 years (2007) GDP per capita: $ 3,300 (2009 est.)

Percentage of Population Living On Less Than $1.25 Per Day: 22.6 % (2006) Families without Sustainable Access to an Improved Drinking Water Source: 17 % (2007)

Monetary unit: Philippine peso

Main exports: semiconductors and electronic products, transport equipment, garments, copper products, petroleum products, coconut oil, fruits

International dialing code: +63

1_{In the Philippines, the barangay is the smallest political unit. Several contiguous barangays}

compose a municipality or a city. Several municipalities and cities compose a province. Several provinces compose a region. The three main islands of the country: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao are made up of several regions. The Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) is led by one Regional Governor, one Regional Vice Governor and 24 representatives of Regional Legislative Assembly representing the eight districts of the five provinces and one city of the region. The region has its own departments and bureaus that are independent with its counterparts at the national level.

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2. CONTEXT ANALYSIS

2.1 Economic - political system

Although the Philippines weathered the 2008-2009 global recessions better than its regional peers, poverty in the country continued to worsen (www.cia.gov, 2010). Around 32.9 percent of the population is living below poverty line; around 23 percent of the population is living below $1.25 a day. Unemployment rate is increasing (8 percent in 2010, 7.5 percent in 2009, and 7.4 percent in 2008). The downward trend of the inflation rate (from 7.6 in 2005 to 2.8 in 2007) suddenly peaked in 2008 (9.3) before decreasing to 3.2 in 2009 (www.census.gov.ph, 2010).

Amidst the global financial meltdown, the onslaught of several typhoons that hit the country during the year and the peace and order problems in Mindanao, the Philippine economy managed to grow by 3.8 percent in 2008. This growth was a deceleration from the 7.1 percent achieved during the high growth period of 2007. Major contributors to growth were manufacturing, agriculture and fishery, TCS, and private services. All of the major sectors (agriculture, fishery, forestry, industry, service sector), however, decelerated in 2008 relative to 2007 (NSCB, 2010).

Across all basic sectors, children, women and urban poor consistently accounted for the largest number of poor population; fishermen, farmers and children comprised the poorest sectors. In a study done by the NSCB for 2006 (Annex 2. 2006 Poverty Statistics for the Basic Sectors), ARMM had the highest concentration of poor farmers, fishermen, senior citizen and urban population. CARAGA posted high poverty incidence of poor fishermen, migrant and formal sector workers. Regions IV, V, VI, VII and VIII tallied the most number of poor children, while the highest concentration of poor women was observed in Regions IV-A, V and VI. Regions V and VI had the most number of poor youth. Region III has a high concentration of urban poor. Along with Region VI, it also had the highest magnitude of poor migrant and formal sector workers.

These are some of the facts that President Benigno Aquino III has to contend with as he succeeds President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as head of government and of state starting June 30 midday. The new president takes over from an intrigue-plagued leadership, riding on a platform of anticorruption. Along with President Aquino, also elected were the vice president, 12 of 24 senators, party-list representatives, congressmen, and, provincial, city and municipal local government officials. The change in leaders is widely seen as positive. Barangay elections will follow on October 2010. An ARMM barangay election is expected on May 2011.

2.2 Population Data and Food Economy areas

Total country population is at 88.57 million in 2007 (Annex 3.2007 Population) Year 2000 estimates place 59 percent of the population are residing in urban areas (www.earthtrends.wri.org, 2010). Region IV-A and NCR respectively record the highest population, as both have highly urbanized areas.

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 9/65 By production quantity, the major crops planted in 2008 are sugarcane, coconut, rice, banana and corn (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). Farms and coconut plantations are widely dispersed throughout the country (Manila Observatory, 2005). Palay remains as the major temporary crop in 12 of 17 regions in the country while corn remains the major temporary crop in Central Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Davao Region, SOCCSKSARGEN and ARMM. Coconut is considered the dominant permanent crop. Banana, however, is the top permanent crop in Cagayan Valley, Western Visayas, Davao Region and CAR; mango in Ilocos Region; and, pineapple in Northern Mindanao and SOCCSKSARGEN (www.census.gov.ph, 2002). Coconut oil is the top Philippine export while iron and steel is the top import as of April 2010. However, the country also imports raw materials and food commodities such as rice, corn, wheat, dairy products, fish, fruits, vegetables and tobacco (www.census.gov.ph, 2010).

The high population in urban areas could be an effect of migration from rural areas and rapid conversion of agricultural lands into other uses. Migration may be fueled by more opportunities for livelihood in urban areas. People from the rural areas may go to urban and peri urban areas to seek employment (with companies or self-employment). This is consistent with labor and employment status data showing that laborers and unskilled workers comprise 32.5 percent of the labor force, while farmers, forestry workers and fishermen comprise only 16.7 percent (www.census.gov.ph, 2009). On the other hand, agricultural lands are dwindling because these are indiscriminately converted for industrial uses and urban expansion (Domingo and Buenaseda, 2000).

2.3 General indicators WASH

Household with access to safe water

Around 82 percent of the household in the Philippines have access to safe water supply (NEC, 2008), with Region VII having the lowest percentage (49 percent). The available data on the access to safe water is rather arguable due to a probable difference in definitions and safety standards in view of the health implications/exposure. The figure below shows the percentage of households have access to safe water per province (NEC, 2008).

Around 77 percent of households in the country have sanitary toilet (NEC, 2008). ARMM recorded the lowest percentage (33 percent) of households with sanitary toilet,

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 10/65 followed by Region VII (46 percent). In the poorest regions and remote areas, improper sanitation practices such as open defecation are still being practiced. The figure below shows the regional wide coverage of sanitation (NEC, 2008).

At the local government level, especially in the low income or in poorest regions, the investments in WASH facilities/service are not a priority and adequate funding allocations are not appropriated for WASH. In areas where the WASH coverage is inadequate, the households remain exposed to the risk of water related diseases, such as diarrhea. The figure below shows acute water diarrhea as a leading causes of the morbidity (NEC, 2008).

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 11/65 Lack of awareness on WASH and availability of health service at the local level still considered as one of the main obstacles. In remote and low income communities the WASH and health services remains limited and inaccessible to many. The figure shows the coverage of Barangay Health Stations in the regions (NEC, 2008).

2.4 General indicators FS

Poverty and food thresholds

Table 1. Poverty and food thresholds 2005-2007

Monthly Daily 2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007 Poverty threshold 5,916 6,003 6,195 195 198 204 Phils. Food threshold 3,896 4,024 4,162 129 133 137 Poverty threshold 7,859 7,945 8,061 259 262 266 NCR Food threshold 4,667 4,735 4,804 154 156 159 Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

A family of five has to have a monthly income of Php 6,195 in order to address its food and non-food needs. Of this amount, minimum of Php 4,162 should be spent for food. The low income class (comprising around 81 percent of the total number of families in 2010), with an average income of Php 9,061, spends Php 4,658 a month for food (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010).

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 12/65 Table 2. Annual per capita poverty threshold for urban and rural areas 2005-2007

Urban - Rural Difference

All Areas Urban Areas Rural Areas Level % 2005 14,196 15,992 13,241 2,751 20.1 2006 14,405 16,429 13,659 2,770 20.3 2007 14,866 16,936 14,103 2,833 20.1

Source: National Statistical Coordination Board

The table above shows that families in urban areas need to earn 20 percent more than the families residing in rural areas. Amount of urban-rural difference is increasing per year but percentage difference is almost the same.

Food importation

From 1999 to 2003, the country imported around 10 percent of its rice consumption requirements (IRRI, 2010). It may surge to around 24 percent this year due to production losses incurred in last year’s series of destructive typhoons that hit Metro Manila and other Luzon provinces (www.bloomberg.com.news, 2010). This is further compounded with the drought conditions experienced by 22 provinces throughout the country during the first half of the year (www.ndcc.gov.ph, 2010). Current price of well-milled rice is stabilizing to an average of Php 30 /kilo (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010).

Cereals and cereal preparations was the third top import for 2010. It was up by 20 percent from the previous year (www.census.gov.ph, 2010).

Inflation rate

Inflation rate for this year has been levelling between 4.2 and 4.4 percent. Inflation is much higher in NCR than in areas outside NCR (www.nscb.gov.ph, 2010). However, the rates are an improvement from highs in 2008 up to the first quarter of 2009.

2.5 General indicators Health and Nutrition

Immunization of 9-11 months children

The figure below (NEC, 2008) shows that the country has 81 percent full immunization. Region IV-B has the lowest percentage of children fully immunized among all other regions.

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 13/65 Mortality

The national crude death rate is 4.3 deaths per population of 100,000. Among all other regions, Region VI has highest crude death rate. Maternal mortality rate is highest in CARAGA, while infant mortality rate is highest in NCR.

The figures below compare the maternal mortality and infant mortality rates respectively per region (NEC, 2008).

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 14/65 Malnutrition

Proportion of undernourishment, number of undernourished and food deficit of undernourished population in the country decreased from 1990 to 2006 (FAO, 2010). In 2005 however, PIDS reported that Regions II, IV-B, V, VI and ARMM have high prevalence of underweight children (0-5 years old). While malnutrition rates have been decreasing in most regions, the situation in ARMM has worsened. It recorded 38 percent malnutrition rate from 31 percent in 1990.

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 15/65 To address malnutrition, the government undertook several projects including salt iodization, food fortification, nutrition education, supplemental feeding, and the food-for-school program in food-for-schools (DevPulse, 2008). In particular, the food-for food-for-school program provided one kilo of iron-fortified rice every class day for 120 days to public elementary school children. As of 2008, around 6.7 million children have benefited from the program (DepEd, 2008).

Health services

The country has a few government health workers catering to the health needs of the population. There are 0.3 physicians and 2.4 midwives / nurses per 10,000 people. This is most felt in Regions IVA, XI and ARMM (NEC, 2008). Many health workers probably turned to the private sector or are leaving for work abroad because of better pay. Figures below show the number of physicians and government nurses / midwives respectively per 10,000 populations (NEC, 2008).

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 16/65 For the number of barangay health stations catering to the population, CAR has the most number of health stations to population (Please refer to figure on BHS per population under WASH). It has 4 stations per 10,000 people. Metro Manila has the least number, but this is compensated by the presence of public and private hospitals. ARMM has the next lowest number with only one per ten thousand people (NEC, 2008).

Other health and nutrition data of regions and provinces gathered by NEC are annexed (Annex 4.Field Health Services Information System 2008).

2.6 Analysis of the national disaster reduction system

Generally, the NDCC depends on its local counterparts at the region to the barangay levels to assess and respond to emergencies in their respective localities. It only calls for international help when its capacity to respond is already at maximum. When it does so, the Interagency Standing Committee or IASC (now called the Humanitarian Country Team) led by the UN Resident Coordinator becomes the vehicle for that international appeal.

The general response to the 2009 series of typhoons showed the varied degrees of preparedness among organizations and levels of government. In general, the response to the disaster was good. However, several challenges hampered operations as cited by the Interagency Real Time Evaluation (IARTE). The local and national capacity to immediately respond to the needs of displaced people was severely tested. The international response, through Interagency Standing Committee and the Clusters, did not systematically take into consideration the existing national capacities and mechanisms. Coordination and prioritization of response activities as clusters was also challenging. Aside from some operational options, the RTE mission team recommended that disaster risk reduction must be prioritized in future funding (Annex 5.IA-RTE Final Report)

The recent signing of RA 10121 (Annex 6. REPUBLIC ACT 10121 Part 1 and Annex 7. REPUBLIC ACT 10121 Part 2), or the Philippine Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010, further strengthens the country’s disaster risk reduction and management. The law does not only change the name of the NDCC into the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), but gives emphases to wholistic, multi-hazard, multi-sector, interagency and community-based approach to risk reduction and management. Moreover, the Act espouses rights-based and gender-responsive approaches. It also emphasizes institutional capability building of LGUs and line agencies. It incorporates climate change and DRR into its national framework. One very important change from NDCC to NDRRMC would be the budget. The NDRRMC now has a revolving fund for risk reduction, preparedness and mitigation, whereas before it does not have. Government agencies are also authorized to allocate a portion of their funds for DRRM activities. With the new law, the government affirms its commitment to put equal emphasis on finding out the root causes of vulnerabilities. Complimenting the passage of RA 10121 is the passage of RA 2583, or the Climate Change Act of 2008 (Annex 8.Philippines Climate Change Act 2009). The Act provides for the establishment of a commission that will serve as the policy-making body of the government on climate change. It will also be tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate related programs. This law mainstreams climate change adaptation within the national, sector and local government plans and programs. It is important to note that

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 17/65 this law allows relevant government agencies and LGUs to allocate funds for climate change adaptation programs.

Since schools are used as evacuation centers in times of emergencies, the education sector is gearing up to make schools safer and more child-friendly even in emergency situations. The Department of Education collaborated with several organizations to come up with and distribute a disaster risk reduction resource manual for schools. The Department is also including climate change and disaster risk reduction into the curricula of elementary and high school students. Although it has not been made into a policy yet, school officials are contemplating on putting a limit on the days of stay of IDPs and evacuees in schools and asking local officials to designate other alternative evacuation centers. This is to help assure that the rights of children to education are fulfilled even during emergencies.

While the PRRM Act will create headway for the national government in making the country more disaster-resilient, lots of work will have to be made for local governments. The challenge for past and on-going training for disaster preparedness, mitigation and risk reduction that are hinged on the active participation of elected and appointed officials is the sustainability of these programs. With the changes in municipal officials due to the local election and the nearing barangay elections, local governments will need continual retooling and guidance from the NDRRMC and the NGOs. Mechanisms may need to be put in place to ensure proper knowledge management transference and sustained education.

2.7 Vulnerable groups and areas

Maguindanao is the most vulnerable province because it has the lowest HDI. This is consistent with poverty, WASH, health and nutrition estimates for the region. Next are Sulu, Tawi-tawi, Basilan; Kalinga, Apayao, Ifugao; Nueva Ecija, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro; Antique, Iloilo, Negros Oriental; Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Masbate; Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Western Samar; Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Sur, Davao Oriental, Compostela; Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani, North Cotabato and Lanao del Sur.

However, it must be noted that vulnerable sectors are present even in areas with high HDI. The 2009 typhoons has proven that the poor and marginalized are very vulnerable during floods and typhoons since they are the ones usually situated in very risky areas for habitation (DARA, 2010). Moreover, migration of indigenous people to urban areas should also be taken into account. Their migration comes as a result of the loss of livelihood, lack of social services or due to tribal conflicts. Because of the lack of education and limited skills, they often face unemployment and poverty (www.un.org, 2010). Majority (61 percent) of the indigenous people are in Mindanao while around 33 percent are in Luzon (www.adb.org, 2002).

2.8 Security analysis

(Excerpted from www.aglobalworld.com, 2010)

The security situation has improved in most areas of the country in recent years. The government of the Philippines is engaged in negotiations with communist and Muslim rebels. Nevertheless, rebel activity along with armed banditry in certain areas of the Philippines still poses potential security concerns.

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Although the New Peoples Army is greatly reduced from its height in the 1980's, NPA insurgents remain active in mountainous and jungle areas, including some parts of Mindanao and Negros Island as well as Quezon province and the Cordillera and Bicol regions of Luzon. In Mindanao, crime and insurgent activity may make travel hazardous to and within the provinces of Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao, Lanao Del Sur, Lanao Del Norte, Sulu, Basilan, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga del Norte, North and South Cotabato, and Sultan Kudarat.

The threat of terrorist action by extremists, both domestic and foreign, does exist in the Philippines. There are periodic reports of plans for possible kidnapping or terrorist acts aimed at U.S. government installations, public and private institutions and means of transportation. However, the majority of these reports have not been followed by terrorist action.

2.9 Other relevant

There is less than 0.1 % prevalence of HIV-AIDS in the country (UNICEF, 2008); although it is suspected that many cases are not reported to authorities.

In June 2009, the country recorded 1,709 confirmed cases of AH1N1. Most (86 percent) of the cases have fully recovered as of the last reporting date (DOH, 2009).

Since 2006, the Philippines has zero cases of foot and mouth disease (www.ausaid.gov.au, 2008).

2.10 Reference and bibliography

General:

• PNUD Human development reports by country: http://hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/ • CIA fact book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

• Prevention Web Serving the information for disaster risk http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/

• Language: http://www.ethnologue.com/country_index.asp • http://www.census.gov.ph/

• http://www.nscb.gov.ph

• National Epidemiology Center (NEC). Field Health Services Information System Annual Report. 2008.

• Estrella V. Domingo and Millicent Gay B. Buenaseda. In: http://www.unescap.org/stat/envstat/stwes-044.pdf • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Philippines_HDI_map.svg • http://www.servinghistory.com/topics/List_of_Philippine_provinces_by_HDI • http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/Philippines_2003_Annex_1.pdf • http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/documents/6_session_factsheet2.pdf • www.doh.gov.ph • http://www.ausaid.gov.au/media/release.cfm?BC=Media&ID=110_2440_8589_57_293 • DARA. Interagency Real Time Evaluation of the Humanitarian Response to Typhoons

Ketsana and Parma in the Philippines. 2010. • http://www.aglobalworld.com

Economic:

• http://www.worldbank.org/

• http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm • http://www.trading-safely.com/sitecwp/cefr.nsf

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Contingency plan Philippines 2. Context Analysis 19/65 • http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/ap2007tx.html

• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/philippine-rice-imports-may-jump-by-24-on-output-cuts-after-2009-typhoon.html

Conflict analysis:

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 20/65

3. HAZARD AND RISK ANALYSIS

3. Analysis of past hazards and effects

The table below summarizes some of the emergencies / disasters that happened in the country in the past three years (CDRC, 2010; NDCC, 2010). The series of typhoons and floods in 2009 was by far the worst as it affected millions of people and immediately destroyed close to 20 billion pesos worth of properties, infrastructure and livelihood. The disaster was said to be a confluence of many factors: high tide, garbage problems, poor drainage and water release in dams without warning.

The complex emergencies / armed conflict in Mindanao in 2008 displaced the most number of people. Displacement was also prolonged as confrontations happened from time to time. Up to the present, there still are IDPs in Maguindanao Province as a result of this armed conflict.

Mayon Volcano in Region V and Taal Volcano in Region IV-A increased its activities during 2009 and 2010 respectively. While there were no eruptions, people were pre-emptively evacuated to avoid any casualty.

Table 1. Occurrence of hazards for the past 3 years

Zone Year Hazard P.afect P.disp Death

Region IV-A 2010 Volcanic activities

3,523 697 0

Region II 2010 Drought 1.4 million 0 0

Typhoons Regions NCR, CAR, III, IV-A 2009 Floods 8.4 million 85,000 763 Region V 2009 Volcanic activities 47,800 45,000 0 Regions X, XII, ARMM 2008 Complex emergencies 800,000 800,000 380

Armed conflict was the most frequent hazard to occur in the past 10 years. These conflicts may be between government forces and the rebel forces of the MILF and NPA, and terrorist group Abu Sayyaf. These were mainly in Mindanao area of the Philippines.

Occurrence of typhoons was not as frequent as other hazards, but it nevertheless affected the most number of people in the last 10 years. An average of 20 typhoons enters the Philippine area of responsibility, four to six of which are very damaging. It had an average of 481,000 people affected per occurrence. For the last 10 years, there were fewer occurrences of disasters but the number of persons affected increased (CDRC, 2010). Last year, the series of typhoons (Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng) mainly ravaged Luzon and affected more than 8 million people and caused close to 28 billion pesos worth of economic losses. In 2008, Typhoon Frank caused close to a

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 21/65 thousand deaths when it rammed through several areas of Luzon and Visayas. It also caused around 13 billion pesos worth of damages (www.typhoon2000, 2010).

A table on the frequency of occurrence of hazards and the number of affected is presented below (CDRC, 2010; Annex 9.2009 Philippine Disaster Report).

Table 2. Frequency of occurrence of hazards and number of affected for the last 10 years

Hazard Number of affected (last 10 years) Frequency of occurrence (last 10 years) Drought 439,357 10 Earthquakes 126,647 43 Floods 16,443,076 265 Tropical cyclones / typhoons 58,142,006 121 Epidemics 238,486 163 Insect infestations 451,904 58 Landslides 264,770 186 Volcano 330,153 8 Waves / Surge 203,520 41 Tornado 87,526 98 Conflict/ Armed violence 3,060,303 283

4. Analysis of current potential threats

Hazard Type / Details

High probability (very likely to occur

within the year)

Medium probability (likely to occur within

the year)

Low probability (small likelihood to occur within the

year) Natural disaster

Drought

Refer to drought sheet

- Meteorological drought - Agricultural drought - Hydrologic drought - Socio-economic drought El Nino affected country up to June 2009. However, La Nina episode initiated in the country towards the middle of the year.

Earthquakes Refer to earthquake sheet

PHIVOLCS warned of a possible earthquake in Metro Manila.

Government and Clusters have started preparing for a 7.2 magnitude

earthquake in Metro Manila.

Extreme

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 22/65 temperature sheet

- Heat waves - Cold waves

Floods

Refer to flood sheet.

Some parts of the country will experience perennial flooding towards the 2nd half of the year during monsoon rains and typhoons. Low-lying, riverside and seaside areas will be at risk. Many Metro Manila areas are still at risk to flooding. La Nina episode is also expected to affect the country towards the second half of the year.

Landslides Refer to landslide sheet

High probability to happen during high rainfall intensity or prolonged precipitation, especially in mountainous and high slope areas.

Volcano

Refer to volcano sheet.

Mt. Mayon very active last year. While its activity has quieted down, possibility of an eruption should not be discounted. Taal Volcano already under Alert 2 status.

Waves / Surge

Refer to storm surge sheet.

People living near seashores are vulnerable to surges during strong typhoons / storms. These have localised impacts.

Tropical cyclones /

typhoons Refer to tropical cyclone _sheet.

Yearly around 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility, 4-6 of which are destructive. Localised tornados happened yearly from years 2000 to 2009. The trend suggests that these can happen also this year. Insect infestations Refer to insect infestation sheet Infestations were recorded yearly from years 2000 to 2004. From 2004 to 2009, trend shows presence of

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 23/65 infestation every other

year. Human-Made disaster

Conflict

Refer to conflict sheet.

In the past years, the government engaged several armed groups (MILF, NPA, Abu Sayyaf) in combats. With peace talks on-going, both the government and the secessionist MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) may be wary of escalating their conflict into full scale. However, isolated cases of conflict may be expected in some areas of ARMM and Region XII. With the protracted war of ideologist NPA (New People’s Army) against the government, packets of armed confrontations may also be expected in rural areas of the country. With terrorist group Abu Sayyaf, armed conflict may be limited to provinces in ARMM. Health disaster Epidemics Refer to global pandemic sheet.

The global pandemic AH1N1 seems to have reached a small portion of the population. There still is some fear that it may mutate into a stronger strain. Localised water-borne disease outbreaks may occur in some rural areas of the country.

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5. Risk priorities

Very Low Low High Very High

6 (Risk Index: 18) SEVERE WEATHER, STORM SURGE (Risk Index: 24) FLOOD, LANDSLIDE, DEBRIS FLOW or SUBSIDENCE Frequent or very likely 5 (Risk Index: 20) VOLCANO ERUPTIONS, WARFARE Moderate or likely 4 (Risk Index: 16) EARTHQUAKE Occasional, slight chance 3 Unlikely, improbable 2 Highly unlikely (rare event) 1 OTHER HAZARDS? (Risk Index: 4) TSUNAMI Very rare event 1 2 3 4 frequency severity

Risk index is the product between a score (from 1 to 6) in frequency and a score (1 to 4) in severity. Based on the online Hazard-risk-vulnerability assessment (HRVA) tool, those within the red zone are frequent and have high severity. Floods and landslides have the most frequency and highest severity. Next are armed conflicts and volcanic eruptions, followed by typhoons and storm surges.

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6. Seasonal Risk calendar

Rainy season in the country is generally from June to December. The mean annual rainfall of the country varies from 965 to 4,064 millimetres annually (www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph, 2010). The southwest monsoon (May to October) brings with it the heavy rains (http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/ht/ht005330.htm, 2010).

However, there are many areas that experience fairly distributed rainfall throughout the year. There are also areas that experience more pronounced rainfall from October to February. Rain-induced landslides coincide with floods during these times.

Typhoons usually occur with heavy rains, but there are cases when rainfall is only light. Storm surges only happen when there are typhoons, and these affect only coastal areas.

Seasonal risk calendar for Philippines is presented below. Armed conflict, volcanic eruption and earthquakes were not included in this figure.

Medium risk High risk

Month Hazards

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Floods Landslides Waves / Surge Windstorms / Hurricanes

7. Risk Mapping

The provinces most at risk to typhoons and floods are Pangasinan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Batangas and Mountain Province (Annex 10.Typhoon risk map). For volcanic eruption, Taal Volcano in Batangas and Mayon Volcano in Albay have very recent activities, although there are other volcanoes that are still considered active (Annex 11.Volcanic eruption risk map). Armed conflict, though dispersed throughout the country, will likely affect ARMM more than other regions because of on-and-off peace negotiations and clan wars (Annex 12.Armed conflict risk map). For earthquake, Metro Manila scenarios were chosen, as these are also among priority contingencies among other organizations (Annex 13.Earthquake risk map).

8. General response capacity

Summarized below are some of the organizations working on emergencies and disaster risk reduction. It must be noted that the Philippines has so many local and international organizations working on emergencies. The tables below refer only to members of the Philippine International NGOs Network (PINGON) and the UN System.

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Organization Field/Sectors Area

Oxfam GB WASH, Food Security,

Livelihood, DRR, NFI

Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country

Description: Current head of PINGON. Has recovery activities within Metro Manila, Rizal and Laguna following the 2010 series of typhoons. Also has project in Maguindanao.

Organization Field Area

Catholic Relief Services Food Security, Livelihood, Shelter, Peace Building, DRR, NFI

Description: PINGON member. Has shelter projects in Bulacan and Rizal. Has regular Peace Building, FS and livelihood programs in Quezon, Bukidnon, Maguindanao, and other parts of Mindanao.

CFSI Protection, Food Security,

Education

Description: Currently has protection projects in Rizal and Pangasinan. It also has education and protection projects in Maguindanao.

Save the Children Education, Protection, WASH, NFI

Description: Currently has recovery and rehabilitation projects in Laguna, Maguindanao and North Cotabato.

World Vision Protection, Education, WASH, Shelter, NFI

Regions X, XI and XII; Rizal Province Description: Currently has projects in Rizal and in different parts of Mindanao.

ADRA WASH, NFI Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the

country. Description: Recently finished response and recovery efforts in Laguna.

Child Fund Education, Protection Can respond to emergencies anywhere in the country

Description: Has response and recovery projects in Laguna, Pangasinan and in Mountain Province.

UN System Education, Food Security, NFI, WASH, Shelter, Protection, Health and

Nutrition, Camp

Management, Livelihood

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Description: Composed of organizations belonging to the UN family, the System responded to those affected by Typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng in Metro Manila and nearby provinces. On-going projects recovery and rehabilitation projects for complex emergency in Regions XII and ARMM.

The table below indicates response capacities of different organizations / entities. The scores are from 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest.

5 – with many trained deployable personnel and pre-existing in the at-risk areas; 4 – with many trained deployable personnel, not pre-existing in at-risk areas but can operate in areas with emergency;

3 – with deployable personnel but few are trained 2 – with few deployable personnel but none are trained

1 – No deployable trained personnel, cannot operate in areas in emergency

Potential emergency needs Response capacity (From 1 to 5) Local population National agencies through local counterparts Civil defense /military ACF mission UN System Immediate needs

Search and rescue 3 3 4 1 1

First aid 3 3 4 1 1

Emergency evacuation 3 3 4 1 1

Water and sanitation needs

Distribution, storage, processing 2 2 1 4 4

Rehabilitation/development of alternative sources 2 2 1 4 4 Disposal of excreta 2 2 1 4 4 Disposal of garbage 2 3 1 4 4 Personal hygiene 2 2 1 4 4

Insect and rodent control 2 2 1 4 4

Food and nutritional needs

Short-term distribution 2 4 1 3 4 Long-term distribution 2 4 1 3 4 Supplementary/curative feeding 2 3 1 2 4 Agriculture 3 3 1 4 4 Nutritional monitoring 2 3 1 2 4 Shelter needs Emergency Shelter 2 2 1 3 4 Buildings/structures 2 3 1 3 4 Blankets 3 3 1 1 4

Fuel for dwellings 3 3 1 1 4

Kitchen utensils 3 3 1 1 4

Safety and security needs

Well-being 2 3 2 4 4

Safety of beneficiaries 2 2 3 4 4

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Control of violence 3 3 4 2 2

Control of abuse of power 2 2 2 2 2

Other types of emergency needs?

Agreements with others partners 1 3 1 4 4

Community disaster plans 1 1 1 3 3

Community solidarity plans 1 1 1 3 3

Most of the scores of the local people are 2, although for immediate needs all scores are 3. Oftentimes it is the local people themselves who initiate search and rescue. However, capacities and capabilities will differ from one region, province, city, municipality or barangay to another. Not everyone is trained to undertake some response measures. Capacities of local agencies as counterpart of national agencies will also vary from place to place.

The military usually takes lead action in search and rescue activities and in cleaning / repairing infrastructures, but little else in other sectors. ACF mission, on the other hand, does not do search and rescue but has high capacity in responding through WASH and food security. ACF scored 2 in nutrition because it does not have dedicated staff yet to this sector.

9. ACF Response priorities

The table below is used to choose the different scenarios that will be developed all along the contingency planning process. Disasters are chosen according to the impact on HH and on the internal capacity of the organization/mandate/core competencies to respond quickly to the crisis.

Floods, typhoons, storm surges and landslides will be the first priority since these hazards are frequent, have high impact on FS, nutrition and WASH, and ACF has high internal capacity to respond to this emergency. Also, these hazards usually occur together so that they can be lumped together in one scenario.

Armed conflicts and volcanic eruptions will also be prioritized. These are imminent dangers that will affect many lives. Moreover, Taal Volcano is near ACF Metro Manila base while Mayon Volcano is also near Bicol field base.

The Metro Manila earthquake will also be prioritized not only because of its impact on FS, nutrition and WASH but also because it will severely impact on the capacity and capability of the Metro Manila base to operate and respond since it will also be severely affected.

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 29/65 Risk index Very low Int Capacity low Int Capacity high Int Capacity Very high Int Capacity 6. Floods, typhoons, Storm surges landslides Frequent or very likely 5. Armed conflict , volcanic eruption Moderate or likely 4. Earthquake Occasional, slight chance 3. Unlikely, improbable 2. Highly unlikely (rare impact) Impact on FS, Nut, WASH 1. Very rare impact

ACH Internal response capacities/core competencies

10. Risk exposure index and mapping

Maps are annexed (Annexes 10 to 13).

11. Reference and bibliography

Disaster resources database:

• Prevention web http://www.preventionweb.net/english/maps/?pid:34&pih:2

UN- Mortality Risk index.pdf

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Contingency plan Philippines 3. Hazard and risk analysis 30/65 • EM-DAT: http://www.emdat.be/Database/CountryProfile/countryprofiles.php

• UN: http://gridca.grid.unep.ch/undp/ • CRED: http://www.cred.be/

• Mortality, Nutrition, Vaccination coverage: http://www.cedat.be/data

• NGOs list: http://www.ngo-ong.org/spip.php?page=sommaire&id_rubrique=4# • OCHA Disaster Response Preparedness Toolkit, Disaster Risk Analysis

• Global Risk data Platform

• http://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/statfram.htm

• http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/ht/ht005330.htm • http://zip-codes.philsite.net/metromanila_map.jpg

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 31/65

4. SCENARIOS BUILDING

12. Scenarios

CONTINGENCY A : Typhoons, floods, landslides, storm surges Scenario

Description of event / trigger

indicator

Affected Area

Affected people Impact

Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Best case scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides Up to Signal No. 1 typhoon Flood water subsides within 15-30 minutes

Both rural and urban centers are affected 10 percent of total population are affected Roads still passable; minor damages 10 percent of infrastructure, agriculture and livelihood are affected / damaged Up to 1 day disruption to major lifelines Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits low risk areas (see risk map) People in low-lying and coastal areas Most likely scenario Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides Signal No. 2 typhoon Flood water subsides within 1-2 hours

Both rural and urban centers are affected. 30 percent of total population are affected 30 percent of infrastructure, agriculture and livelihood are affected / damaged Disruption of lifelines in some areas for 2-3 days Some difficulty in the transport of goods because of damage to roads; inflation of prices of goods Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits medium risk areas (see risk map)

Those living near bodies of water, low-lying areas, near dams, under bridges, near canals, in mountainous areas are at risk. Those resettled in areas that are not safe from multi hazard are also at risk. People living in light to semi-light material houses are also vulnerable. Worst case

scenario

Occurrence of typhoons, floods, storm surges, flash floods and / or rain-induced landslides

Both urban and rural areas are affected Equal to or more than 40 percent of At least 1-week disruption of major services and lifelines (telecom, electricity, water Aggravating factor: If typhoon hits high risk areas (see risk map) Those IDPs that are still living in IDP camps

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 32/65 Signal No. 3 and

4

Flood water does not subside within 2 hours and may last for days, weeks or months population are affected services, hospitals, etc.) Disruption of sea, land and air travels Destruction and siltation in farms, fish ponds, plantations Outbreak of water-borne diseases Food shortage Schooling suspended and schools used as evacuation centers Price inflation NDCC already calls for international assistance

and house-based set-ups

Those living near bodies of water, low-lying areas, near dams, under bridges, near canals, in mountainous areas are at risk. Those resettled in areas that are not safe from multi hazard are also at risk. People living in light to semi-light material houses are also vulnerable. Many of those in Metro

Manila and

neighbouring provinces that were affected in last year’s typhoons are informal settlers that went back to at-risk places (under bridges, near rivers, etc.)

CONTINGENCY B : Volcanic eruption Scenario

indicator

Affected Area

Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Best case scenario Level 1 warning from PHIVOLCS for volcanic activity Around 13,000 people people living within the effective danger radius are evacuated to safer areas Disruption of classes in schools used as evacuation centers Discomforts for both displaced and current students in the host schools Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people

Pregnant and lactating women, nutritionally-at-risk children / children,

persons with

disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 33/65 Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Increase in number of tourists Most likely scenario Level 2 warning from PHIVOLCS for volcanic activity Around 70,000 people living within the effective danger radius are evacuated to safer areas Disruption of classes in schools used as evacuation centers Discomforts for both displaced and current students in the host schools Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Increase in number of tourists

persons with

disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers Worst case scenario Eruption of volcano Around 150,000 people living within the danger zones Disruption of economic activities of the displaced people Destruction of properties within

persons with

disabilities, IPs, senior citizen in the evacuation centers

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 34/65 the danger zones

Ash fall covers many farm lands and fish ponds in the vicinity of Batangas and Laguna hindering crop and fish production Increased risks to communicable diseases of those in the evacuation centers Decreased access to food, potable water, latrines Increased incidence of prostitution, forced migration and petty crimes

Farm laborers / farmers and fish pond workers / fisher folks in the areas affected

Those with health respiratory problems are also at risk

CONTINGENCY C : Armed conflict Scenario

indicator

Affected Area

Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Best case scenario Armed conflict between government and NPA or government and MILF Sporadic fighting 2 provinces: Maguindanao and North Cotabato for GOP-MILF Bicol, CARAGA regions for GOP-NPA

100,000 people affected but not all displaced Partial damage to agriculture and infrastructure Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars, kidnap-for-ransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon)

Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable Most likely scenario Armed conflict between government and MILF 4 provinces affected in Regions X, XII and ARMM Displacement 1-2 weeks Damages to vital Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars,

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kidnap-for-Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 35/65 500,000 affected; 400,000 displaced; 100,000 with damaged properties; 100,000 may suffer natural disaster effects infra; malfunctions and disruption of markets

ransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon)

Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable

Worst case scenario

Failure of peace talks; all-out war between

government and MILF

9 provinces affected in Regions IX, X, XI, XII, ARMM

1 million affected;

800,000 are

displaced; 500,000 in IDP camp, while

300,000 are house-based More than 2 weeks displacement Destruction of farms, major infrastructure Inaccessibility of fishing grounds to fisher folks Inaccessibility of farm to farmers Congestion in IDP camps High incidence of illnesses / water-born diseases and deaths especially among children and mothers Increase in malnutrition Traumatic cases Selling of properties Increase in incidences of human rights violation / sexual abuse Presence of other armed threats / conflicts (family feuds, tribal wars, kidnap-for-ransom groups like Abu Sayyaf and Pentagon)

Women, children, elderly, PWD, pregnant and lactating, farmers, IPs, fishermen and farm workers are vulnerable

Restriction of

movement of

humanitarian workers Inaccessibility to IDPs most of the time due to road blocks

Frequent transfer of IDPs from one place to another

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 36/65 CONTINGENCY D: Earthquake Scenario Description of event / trigger indicator Affected Area

Aggravating factors / Specific vulnerable groups Best case scenario Magnitude 5 or less; with some debris falling (soil, rocks, others)

Metro Manila Old buildings cracked; houses made of light materials with minor damages; some people shocked; some panic

Pregnant and lactating; elderly; persons with disabilities; children

Most likely scenario

Magnitude 6 Metro Manila Minor damage to roads, buildings, houses; lifelines disrupted from a day to a few days

Secondary hazards: landslide, falling debris and fire in some areas Pregnant and lactating; elderly; persons with disabilities; children Worst case scenario Magnitude 7 and up Metro Manila; 3 million affected with 750,000 displaced; neighbouring provinces may also be affected Buildings and houses destroyed or heavily damaged; major roads impassable due to heavy damage; lifelines (electricity, water, communications) cut for 1 week or more; hospitals and health centers severely damaged and with minimum personnel; very limited access to food; disruption of trading / businesses Very high number of injured and deaths

Possible panic buying, hoarding and civil discord due to food shortage Many stress-Several strong aftershocks follow Secondary hazards: landslides in many areas, falling debris, fires, tsunami (Manila Bay), volcanic eruption in provinces with volcanoes

People staying in areas with many high-rise or old buildings are very much vulnerable; Pregnant and lactating, elderly, persons with disabilities, children are also very vulnerable

The national

government, UN

agencies and many international/local organizations located in Metro Manila are severely challenged because they are also victims

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Contingency plan Philippines 4. Scenarios building 37/65 related problems

surfacing

13. Problem tree

Root causes of problems associated with food security, nutrition and WASH in the scenarios were listed using problem trees. To summarize, here are the root causes in the different scenarios:

Typhoons: Most likely to worst case

1) Food insecurity - no / lack of income, no farm / fishing activity, damaged farms / fisheries, inputs and implements, damaged roads, higher prices of goods

2) Malnutrition – no farm / fishing activity, higher prices of goods, small amount of food given in evacuation centers

3) WASH (increased morbidity and mortality) - damaged latrines, damaged water systems / piping connections

Volcanic eruption: Most likely to worst case

1) Food insecurity – destruction of farms / fishing grounds, loss of farm / fishing implements, lack of livelihood alternatives

2) Malnutrition - no farm / fishing activity, higher prices of goods, small amount of food given in evacuation centers

3) WASH – lack of hygiene facilities, poor hygiene practices, inadequate sanitary toilets, inadequate water facilities, poor waste facilities, poor waste management practices

Armed conflict: Most likely to worst case

1) Food insecurity – destruction of properties, loss of tools / equipment and farm / fishing inputs, no farm activity because of displacement, diversion of family financial resources for livelihood to food and basic necessities 2) Malnutrition – water facilities are not enough where populations are

congested, no livelihood activities, restriction of movement to where the food is

3) WASH – lack of hygiene knowledge, lack of hygiene kits and supplies, lack of hand washing and bathing facilities, insufficient number of latrines, poor waste management, lack of potable water supply

Metro Manila earthquake: Most likely to worst case

1) Food insecurity – hoarding, panic buying, damaged food storage facilities, damaged road network and communication system

2) Malnutrition – hoarding, panic buying, damaged food and storage facilities, damaged road network

3) WASH – damaged health facilities, lack of attending personnel, lack of hand washing / bathing facilities, lack of latrines, damaged pipelines and water sources, increased practice of open defecation, no proper garbage disposal