Item: Components 1.2
Modelling, Decision Support Tools (DST) and
Simulation Exercises
• ‘New’ component, previously with Component 1.1
•Workplan developed by Caroline Dube and presented to
ExCom in July 2014
• New project team formed following Caroline’s resignation:
• Supervisor: F. Rosso, (K. Sumption – interim modeling)
• Component manager: E. Calduch Negro (M. Mclaws –
interim modeling)
•Budget 61,900 Euro (consultancies plus travel)
ExCom87
Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools
(DST) and Simulation Exercises
Simulation exercises
Consultation Modelling tools
Economic assessments
Contingency Plan
Contingency Plan Development
Decision Support Tools (DST)
Component 1.2 Modelling, Decision Support Tools
(DST) and Simulation Exercises
OUTPUTS (EXPECTED RESULTS):
1. A European modelling network composed of policy makers and model users from all interested MS with direct access to FMD models and model developers linked to other international modelling groups.
2. Resources for training on disease modelling and economic analysis in decision-making and simulation exercise design
3. A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design. 1 39% 2 39% 3 22%
Objective :to improve the ability of Member States and Europe as a
whole to respond to a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion by using modelling and decision-support tools as well as simulation exercises to develop and test their FMD contingency plans and outbreak response.
Output 1. European modelling network
• Discussion paper drafted – circulate to focus group
•Initial meeting at EuFMD Open Session (30 October)
• Network objectives to be endorsed. Draft:
1. Promote use of models to inform contingency planning for FMD in Europe (ie applied research) through
enhanced understanding
a) amongst current users (through external validation of models) as well as non-users
2. Forum for discussion and technical support
3. Identification of decision support tools expected to provide the most value to decision makers.
• Support their development (through EuFMD-FAR &/or network
Initial activities proposed:
1. Description of currently available resources: models and expertise
2. Webinar/seminar series- network members to describe current research
3. Develop a common project (subject to interest & support)
• European disease spread model (cross-border spread)
• Modeling framework(s) that can be readily adapted to different
countries
• Studies to identify key national-level parameters (ie what specific
national-level data is really essential for model input?)
• Studies to explore optimal control measures for ‘typical’ European
countries, ie representative of different husbandry systems etc
• Model comparison studies to validate existing models
Output 2. Resources for training: modelling, and
simulation exercise design
• E-learning on epidemiological modeling has been
developed
• Modeling workshop on the use of epidemiological
modelling and socio-economic analysis in FMD contingency planning (held 29 Sept-3 Oct 2014)
Future ideas and plans:
1. Development of Guidelines:
• For testing Contingency Plans (ie simulation
exercises)
2. Review of resources available for simulation exercises and development of a website for access to these.
3. Accessible and easy-to-use tools / calculators:
• to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD
emergencies.
• to calculate resources required to control an
outbreak (ie, number of vets, slaughter capacity, vaccine doses…)
Output 2. Resources for training: modelling, and
simulation exercise design
Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design.
• To link persons facing similar challenges throughout EuFMD
member states and work together find solutions
• Through internet (website, webinar, email), meetings...
• Sharing technical resources, ideas and solutions
• First step is to identify interested members, then
identify wants and needs to assist their work.
• Modeling workshop, FVO Meeting, existing reports, EuFMD training
focal points
• Discussion at modeling workshop:
• 17 participants from 11 countries
• Network already formed through FVO? (will work with
FVO to identify where EuFMD can best provide support)
• Q 13 Modeling workshop feedback form: How can we
help you more after the course has finished?
Output 3 A network of managers in contingency planning and simulation exercise design.
CP Issues: from discussion at modeling workshop Oct 2014
Issue Solution
Shortage of resources
within Veterinary Services for emergency
preparedness
• caused by lack of
awareness of importance
An accessible and easy-to-use tool to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD
emergencies could be developed to help to
raise awareness.
Contingency plans drafted but not tested
• or not all aspects tested: •Stakeholders
•Neighbouring
countries
•Local levels
• resources required
•Raise awareness about importance of testing • Development of Guidelines for testing CP
(simulation exercise and other)
• include best practices such as
stakeholder involvement, include
neighbouring countries, involvement of national and local levels
• Tool to calculate resources required (ie.
number of vets, slaughter capacity, vaccine doses…)
Planned Program
PROGRESS UPDATE AND REVISED PROGRAM (88TH Session, October 2014)
Planning Implementation
2014 2015 Comments
Activity Events J J A S O N D J F M A M J
1.1 Establish focus group with regular meetings (VC in some cases) in
preparation for workshops, Open Session and discussion paper. 9 . . . ongoing 1.2 Review of available models in MS and internationally and discussion paper
on the need for an EU-level model or other steps forward needed. 2 . . . ongoing 1.3 Oversight of EuFMD funded modelling projects to ensure in-line with
modelling program. Ongoing . . . ongoing 1.4 Workshop 2 on the development of the European modelling network. 1 . To be confirmed 2.1 Review of resources available in MS for simulation exercise design and
development of a website for access to documentation and processes for exercise development.
Online
resource . . 2.2 Resources for training on disease modeling Ongoing . . . . 2.3. Development of Guidelines on validity testing CPs/simulation exercises Document . . . 2.4. Development of an online accessible and easy-to-use tool /
calculator/model to assess the socio-economic impact of FMD emergencies to assist in raising awareness on the importance of contingency planning.
Online
resource . . . 3.1 Survey of needs of managers in contingency planning in MS for: exercise
design, evaluation of emergency plans and economics in decision-making. 1 . .
3.2 Establish network of managers in contingency planning Ongoing . . . To be discussed on the 16th Oct.(Grange)
3.3 Develop a repository of information related to simulation exercise
