• No results found

MIT- CEEPR Workshop. The EU ETS: Perspective and Lessons Hamilton Crowne Plaza Hotel Washington, DC January 24-25, 2008

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2021

Share "MIT- CEEPR Workshop. The EU ETS: Perspective and Lessons Hamilton Crowne Plaza Hotel Washington, DC January 24-25, 2008"

Copied!
22
0
0

Loading.... (view fulltext now)

Full text

(1)

MIT- CEEPR Workshop

The EU ETS: Perspective

and Lessons

Hamilton Crowne Plaza Hotel

Washington, DC

January 24-25, 2008

Session 4 :

CO2 Price Effects on the German Power

Sector

- Comments

Dr. Jean-Yves CANEILL, EDF

(2)

Is emission trading leading to

higher electricity prices ?

Changes in electricity prices will not be a consequence of

emissions trading, but of implementation of a carbon

constraint in the economy

• Goods that contain more carbon will be relatively more expensive than

goods that contain less carbon. As the trading scheme is the cheapest way

to implement the quantitative constraint, it means that any

price changes should be the lowest necessary

• Pricing decisions in the liberalised power market are

increasingly complex and difficult to predict

Many events directly affect the electricity prices

,

emission trading is just one of them

(3)

Need to take into consideration the

different market areas

The carbon content of each

zone Is different

Each market zone behaves

differently and between them

access constraints exist

Etude Global Insight

Impact CO2 dans prix de gros :

+ + +

+ +

+

(4)

Simulations of emissions

trading markets

The GETS experiments

«

G

reenhouse gas

e

missions and

E

nergy (Electricity)

T

rading

S

imulations »

GETS 1

(1999)

GETS 2

(2000)

GETS 3

(2001)

(5)

Main Results & Next Steps

GETS 1 (1999)

Most companies traded CO

2

actively and learnt

quickly how to include the price signal into

their strategies

Trading per se was not a problem

Investment, not trading, delivered compliance

at the end; emissions trading helped to lower

the cost of compliance

Power prices increased regularly during the

(6)

Electricity price evolution

Electricity trading

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2001-02

2003-04

2005-06

2007

2008

2009-10

2011-12

1000 MWh

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Euro/MWh

GETS 1 (1999)

(7)

GETS 1 (1999)

Observation on the electricity prices

On the average electricity prices varied from

38,1 euros/MWh

to

51.5 euros/MWh

; i.e. a difference of

13.4 euros

The average price of CO

2

in the last sessions was

48.4 euros/tCO

2

The new generated mix has shown

0,259 tons CO

2

per. MWh

« CO

2

value » of 1 generated MWh

(8)

GETS 2 (2000)

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Gets2.1

Gets2.2

Gets2.3

Three simulation

were run to improve

assumptions

(e.g. allocation)

(9)

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00

ELE00 ELE01 ELE02 ELE03 ELE04 ELE05 ELE06 ELE07 ELE08 ELE09 ELE10 ELE11 ELE12

Contrats Euros par MWh Gets2.1 Gets2.2 Gets2.3

ELECTRICITY PRICES EVOLUTION AS SEEN IN

GETS-2 EXPERIMENTS

GETS 2 (2000)

(10)

Main Result

GETS 2 (2000)

“ Companies’

investments

drive

environmental compliance…

...the emissions trading market allows

them to integrate fully environmental

goals into business strategies and

decision making ”

(11)

Actor constrained on its CO2 emissions

Ù

CO2 opportunity cost linked to :

buying an allowance to generate or selling an allowance and not generate

ƒ

Increased in proportional costs = f (specific CO2 emissions, CO2 price)

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

(12)

CO2 price as well as fuel costs are drivers of the

electricity price evolution

1ère période EU-ETS

2005-2007

Evolution comparée des prix des commodités Charbon et Gaz (Forward 1Month)

avec celle du forward annuel du CO2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 05/01/2004 05/03/2004 05/05/2004 05/07/2004 05/09/2004 05/11/2004 05/01/2005 05/03/2005 05/05/2005 05/07/2005 05/09/2005 05/11/2005 05/01/2006 05/03/2006 05/05/2006 05/07/2006 05/09/2006 05/11/2006 05/01/2007 05/03/2007 05/05/2007 05/07/2007 05/09/2007 05/11/2007 en €/ t (charbon) ou €/ M W h (gaz) ou €/

tCO2 (Forward CO2) ou €/

M

W

h (Pri

x El

ec)

TFS Coal API#2 in US Dollars per Tonne Week Average Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average

Platts Natural Gas - Germany Bunde 1-Month Euro in EUR per GIG Week Average

Prix forward CO2 Point Carbon

données EnergyDataBase

et Point Carbon

en Allemagne

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

(13)

Transfer of CO2 prices in wholesale electricity market prices have evolved largely in time and space

Î

function of 2 terms :

‰

“Carbon risk exposure” of a specific market area

Î

CO2 index

‰

Possibility for actors to transfer totally or partially CO2 in their power prices

Î

pass-through

Transfer of CO2 price in the market price can enhance or attenuate price

differences between market areas

Î

impact on interconnections / exchange level

Royaume-Uni

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 05/ 01/ 2004 05/ 03/ 2004 05/ 05/ 2004 05/ 07/ 2004 05/ 09/ 2004 05/ 11/ 2004 05/ 01/ 2005 05/ 03/ 2005 05/ 05/ 2005 05/ 07/ 2005 05/ 09/ 2005 05/ 11/ 2005 05/ 01/ 2006 05/ 03/ 2006 05/ 05/ 2006 05/ 07/ 2006 05/ 09/ 2006 05/ 11/ 2006 05/ 01/ 2007 05/ 03/ 2007 05/ 05/ 2007 05/ 07/ 2007 05/ 09/ 2007 05/ 11/ 2007 en €/ M W h

Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Baseload in GBP per MWH Week Average

Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average

1er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS

Allemagne

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 05/ 01/ 2004 05/ 03/ 2004 05/ 05/ 2004 05/ 07/ 2004 05/ 09/ 2004 05/ 11/ 2004 05/ 01/ 2005 05/ 03/ 2005 05/ 05/ 2005 05/ 07/ 2005 05/ 09/ 2005 05/ 11/ 2005 05/ 01/ 2006 05/ 03/ 2006 05/ 05/ 2006 05/ 07/ 2006 05/ 09/ 2006 05/ 11/ 2006 05/ 01/ 2007 05/ 03/ 2007 05/ 05/ 2007 05/ 07/ 2007 05/ 09/ 2007 05/ 11/ 2007 en €/ M W h

Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average

1er janv 2005 : démarrage du système EU-ETS

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

Transfer of CO2 price in power prices

electricity price difference (in €/MWh) = pass-through CO2 price (in

%) x CO2 price (in €/tCO2) x CO2 index (in tCO2/MWh)

(14)

Royaume-Uni

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes

des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon

-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 05/01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07 en €/MWh

Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Baseload in GBP per MWH Week Average

Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Baseload Week Average

Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et 2007

1er janv 2005 :

démarrage du système EU-ETS

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

UK

– Evolution of running monthly averages of baseload electricity

(15)

Allemagne

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes

des prix de l'électricité (Base 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 05/01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07 en €/MW h

Platts Power - Germany Baseload 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average

Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Baseload Week Average

Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et 2007

1er janv 2005 :

démarrage du système EU-ETS

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

Germany

– Evolution of running monthly averages of baseload

(16)

Royaume-Uni

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes

des prix de l'électricité (Pointe 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon

-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 05/01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07 en €/MW h

Platts Power - UK GTMA 1-Month Peak in GBP per MWH Week Average

Estimation RegLinéaire - UK 1-Month Peak Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - UK 1-Month Peak Week Average

Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et 2007

1er janv 2005 :

démarrage du système EU-ETS

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

UK

– Evolution of running monthly averages of peak load electricity

(17)

Allemagne

Evolution comparée des moyennes mensuelles glissantes

des prix de l'électricité (Pointe 1Month) réalisés et estimés "hors CO2"

données EnergyDataBase + données PtCarbon

-10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 05/01/04 05/03/04 05/05/04 05/07/04 05/09/04 05/11/04 05/01/05 05/03/05 05/05/05 05/07/05 05/09/05 05/11/05 05/01/06 05/03/06 05/05/06 05/07/06 05/09/06 05/11/06 05/01/07 05/03/07 05/05/07 05/07/07 05/09/07 05/11/07 en €/MW h

Platts Power - Germany Peak 1-Month Euro in EUR per MWH Week Average

Estimation RegLinéaire - Germany 1-Month Peak Week Average

EcartPrix Réalisé-Estimé - Germany 1-Month Peak Week Average

Prix CO2 sur forward 2005, puis 2006 et 2007

1er janv 2005 :

démarrage du système EU-ETS

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

Germany

– Evolution of running monthly averages of peak load

electricity prices (real data and theoretical assessment without CO2)

(18)

Definition of « Spreads »

ƒ

Rough margin correponding to the

difference between electricity price and

variable costs (fuel costs) :

Spread = Price_Elec – Price_Fuel

ƒ

Coal

Î

« Dark Spread »

ƒ

Gas

Î

« Spark Spread »

Definition of « Clean Spreads »

ƒ

Including CO2 component :

Clean Spread = Spread – Coef_CO2 * Price

CO2

ƒ

Coal

Î

« Clean Dark Spread »

ƒ

Gas

Î

« Clean Spark Spread »

ƒ

Used to assess on the interest to switch Gas – Coal

Î

are potentially

« drivers » of the carbon pricing on the CO2 market

Clean Spread Gas = Clean Spread Coal

ƒ

Theoretical price for Gas-Coal arbitrage :

Theoretical CO2 Price =

(Spread

Coal

– Spread

Gas

) / (Coef_CO2

Coal

– Coef_CO2

Gas

)

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

(19)

Equality of Clean Spreads happen

more clearly :

ƒ

In summer

ƒ

On peak load electricity products

Link between CO2 price and price

difference between gas and coal :

ƒ

Real in 1st semester 2005

ƒ

None in winter 2005/06

ƒ

Elastic in 1st quarter 2006…

ƒ

… and broken after the CO2 market

« krack »

Royaume-Uni

Evolution des Clean Spark et Dark Spreads BASE

(valeurs moyennes hebdomadaires)

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 05/01/2004 05/03/2004 05/05/2004 05/07/2004 05/09/2004 05/11/2004 05/01/2005 05/03/2005 05/05/2005 05/07/2005 05/09/2005 05/11/2005 05/01/2006 05/03/2006 05/05/2006 05/07/2006 05/09/2006 05/11/2006 05/01/2007 05/03/2007 05/05/2007 05/07/2007 05/09/2007 05/11/2007 en €/MWh

Clean Dark Spread UK en €/MWh Clean Spark Spread UK en €/MWh

Royaume-Uni

Evolution des Clean Spark et Dark Spreads POINTE

(valeurs moyennes hebdomadaires)

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 05/01/2004 05/03/2004 05/05/2004 05/07/2004 05/09/2004 05/11/2004 05/01/2005 05/03/2005 05/05/2005 05/07/2005 05/09/2005 05/11/2005 05/01/2006 05/03/2006 05/05/2006 05/07/2006 05/09/2006 05/11/2006 05/01/2007 05/03/2007 05/05/2007 05/07/2007 05/09/2007 05/11/2007 en €/MWh

Clean Dark Spread UK en €/MWh Clean Spark Spread UK en €/MWh

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

(20)

Comparaison entre prix CO2 réalisés et

prix théoriques d'inversion Charbon-Gaz

en UK et en Allemagne

-10 10 30 50 70 90 déc -03 janv -04 févr-04 mars-04 avr-04 ma i-0 4 ju in -0 4 ju il-0 4 août-04 sept-04 oc t-04 nov -04 déc -04 janv -05 févr-05 mars-05 avr-05 ma i-0 5 ju in -0 5 ju il-0 5 août-05 sept-05 oc t-05 nov -05 déc -05 janv -06 févr-06 mars-06 avr-06 ma i-0 6 ju in -0 6 ju il-0 6 août-06 sept-06 oc t-06 nov -06 déc -06 janv -07 févr-07 mars-07 avr-07 ma i-0 7 ju in -0 7 ju il-0 7 août-07 sept-07 oc t-07 nov -07 déc -07 en €/tCO2

Prix CO2 réalisés (Pt Carbon)

Prix CO2 théorique d'inversion Charbon-Gaz en UK

Prix CO2 théorique d'inversion Charbon-Gaz en Allemagne

Coupling CO2 market / electricity market

Theoretical CO2 price for Coal-Gas arbitrage – Clean Spread

Link between

CO2 price and

Coal/Gas spread

starts

No link with

Coal/Gas

spread

Link again and absence of

link with Coal/Gas spread

Theoretical

CO2 price is

even

negative!

(21)

CONCLUSIONS

1.

Whatever the allocation chosen

electricity price effects will not disappear

2.

Key principles for allocation are equitable treatment between

sectors, predictability and, where possible, harmonisation

3.

All participants in ETS receive a grant through free allocation

4.

Rational economic behaviour argues in favor of realising this value

-the ability to realize this is determined by whe-ther product prices

are set globally or regionally

5.

At the end of the day the urgent need for investments in generation

capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will drive the

(22)

Favouring

long term marginal costs

consideration and

making the scheme more incentivising for investments

Changing progressively free allocation rules by moving towards

auctioning allowances, provided that national specificities are taken

into account in the necessary European harmonisation requirement

(down to no free allocation in the long term) together with targets

dynamics in line with realistic technological pathways

Reasons :

- giving the right signal for investment (CO2 valuation in full costs)

- escape from the present « new projects/entrants rules »

References

Related documents

1. A loan originator may only receive compensation from one source. The Rule allows Loan Originators to receive compensation up-front from the borrower, or from the lender. For

Morphoproteomics identifies constitutive activation of the mTORC2/Akt and NF-κB pathways and expressions of IGF-1R, Sirt1, COX-2, and FASN in peripheral T-cell

Tho ACP Statos, the Communlty and the Member States shall be bound, each to the extent to whlch lt ls concornod, to take the measures necossary to. lmplement thls

Recommendation of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs and Industrial Policy concerning the common position of the Council on a Directive amending Directive 77/536/EEC

And being near other people was a great survival choice for me.” Stephen Gaskin had a simple platform for The Farm in Tennessee, and it was pretty much the same on 1970s communes in

although DVC insulin infusion in GFP rats was still able to in- crease glucose infusion rate to maintain euglycemia ( Figure 3 E) and lower glucose production ( Figures 3 F and S2

Call for Proposals published 15 March 1994 (OJ C 78) for exploratory actions on research and technological development in air transport , as part of a joint initiative

Bactericidal activity of various imidazolone derivatives were repor ted by researches, in view of this observation, we report here the synthesis of some novel heterocyclic N-