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Adaptive correction of deterministic models to produce probabilistic forecasts

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Figure

Table 1. Model considered for the evolution of the gain specified in terms of the state space form in Eq
Fig. 1. Schematic map showing the upper River and Vyrnwy tributary which both flow from west to east
Fig. 2. Summary plots of the data available for Welsh bridge during the calibration period
Table 2. Calibration results for Welsh bridge showing the log likelihood and RMSE (bracketed) for various forecast lead times (hours) andGRW models.
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