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Taimoor Gondal
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Current Affairs Notes
ESTABLISHMENT
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, was established on 8 August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand, with the signing of the ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by the Founding Fathers of ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Brunei Darussalam then joined on 7 January 1984, Viet Nam on 28 July 1995, Lao PDR and Myanmar on 23 July 1997, and Cambodia on 30 April 1999, making up what is today the ten Member States of ASEAN. ASEAN covers an area of 4.46 million km², 3% of the total land area of Earth, with a population of
approximately 600 million people, 8.8% of the world population. In 2010, its combined nominal GDP had grown to US$1.8 trillion. If ASEAN was a single entity, it would rank as the ninth largest economy in the world.
AIMS AND PURPOSES
As set out in the ASEAN Declaration, the aims and purposes of ASEAN are:
1. To accelerate the economic growth, social progress and cultural development in the region through joint endeavours in the spirit of equality and partnership in order to strengthen the foundation for a prosperous and peaceful community of Southeast Asian Nations;
2. To promote regional peace and stability through abiding respect for justice and the rule of law in the relationship among countries of the region and adherence to the principles of the United Nations Charter;
3. To promote active collaboration and mutual assistance on matters of common interest in the economic, social, cultural, technical, scientific and administrative fields;
4. To provide assistance to each other in the form of training and research facilities in the educational, professional, technical and administrative spheres;
5. To collaborate more effectively for the greater utilisation of their agriculture and industries, the expansion of their trade, including the study of the problems of international commodity trade, the improvement of their transportation and communications facilities and the raising of the living standards of their peoples;
6. To promote Southeast Asian studies; and
7. To maintain close and beneficial cooperation with existing international and regional organisations with similar aims and purposes, and explore all avenues for even closer cooperation among themselves.
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES
In their relations with one another, the ASEAN Member States have adopted the following fundamental principles, as contained in the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC) of 1976:
1. Mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity, and national identity of all nations;
2. The right of every State to lead its national existence free from external interference, subversion or coercion;
3. Non-interference in the internal affairs of one another; 4. Settlement of differences or disputes by peaceful manner; 5. Renunciation of the threat or use of force; and
6. Effective cooperation among themselves.
ASEAN COMMUNITY
The ASEAN Vision 2020, adopted by the ASEAN Leaders on the 30th Anniversary of ASEAN, agreed on a shared vision of ASEAN as a concert of Southeast Asian nations, outward looking, living in peace, stability and prosperity, bonded together in partnership in dynamic development and in a community of caring societies.
At the 9th ASEAN Summit in 2003, the ASEAN Leaders resolved that an ASEAN Community shall be established.
At the 12th ASEAN Summit in January 2007, the Leaders affirmed their strong commitment to accelerate the establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015 and signed the Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015.
The ASEAN Community is comprised of three pillars, namely the ASEAN Political-Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. Each pillar has its own Blueprint, and, together with the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) Strategic Framework and IAI Work Plan Phase II (2009-2015), they form the Roadmap for and ASEAN Community 2009-2015.
ASEAN CHARTER
The ASEAN Charter serves as a firm foundation in achieving the ASEAN Community by providing legal status and institutional framework for ASEAN. It also codifies ASEAN norms, rules and values; sets clear targets for ASEAN; and presents accountability and compliance.
The ASEAN Charter entered into force on 15 December 2008. A gathering of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers was held at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta to mark this very historic occasion for ASEAN.
With the entry into force of the ASEAN Charter, ASEAN will henceforth operate under a new legal framework and establish a number of new organs to boost its community-building process.
In effect, the ASEAN Charter has become a legally binding agreement among the 10 ASEAN Member States.
Enlargement of
ASEAN:-During the 1990s, the bloc experienced an increase in both membership and drive for further integration. In 1990, Malaysia proposed the creation of an East Asia Economic Caucus comprising the then members of ASEAN as well as the People's Republic of China, Japan, and South Korea, with the intention of
counterbalancing the growing influence of the United States in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and in the Asian region as a whole. This proposal failed, however, because of heavy opposition
#2 from the United States and Japan. Despite this failure, member states continued to work for further
integration and ASEAN Plus Three was created in 1997.
In 1992, the Common Effective Preferential Tariff (CEPT) scheme was signed as a schedule for phasing tariffs and as a goal to increase the region’s competitive advantage as a production base geared for the world market. This law would act as the framework for the ASEAN Free Trade Area. After the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, a revival of the Malaysian proposal was established in Chiang Mai, known as the Chiang Mai Initiative, which calls for better integration between the economies of ASEAN as well as the ASEAN Plus Three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea).
Aside from improving each member state's economies, the bloc also focused on peace and stability in the region. On 15 December 1995, the Southeast Asian Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty was signed with the intention of turning Southeast Asia into a Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. The treaty took effect on 28 March 1997 after all but one of the member states have ratified it. It became fully effective on 21 June 2001, after the Philippines ratified it, effectively banning all nuclear weapons in the region.
Early 2011, East Timor plans to submit a letter of application to the ASEAN Secretariat in Indonesia to be the eleventh member of ASEAN at the summit in Jakarta. Indonesia has shown a warm welcome to East Timor.
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Baluchistan conflict
The Government of Pakistan over Baluchistan, the country's largest province. Recently, separatists have also clashed with Islamic Republic of Iran over its respective Baloch region, which borders Pakistan. Shortly after Pakistan's creation in 1947, the Army of the Islamic Republic had to subdue insurgents based in Kalat who rejected the King of Kalat decision to accede to Pakistan, reminiscent of the Indian Army's operation in the
Principality state of Hyderabad. The movement gained momentum during the 1960s, and amid consistent political disorder, the government ordered a military operation into the region in 1973, assisted by Iran, and inflicted heavy casualties on the separatists. The movement was largely quelled after the imposition of martial law in 1977, after which Baluchistan witnessed significant development. After insurgency groups again
mushroomed in the 1990s and 2000s, the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the war in North-West Pakistan exacerbated the conflict, most recently manifested in the killings of
non-Baloch settlers in the province by separatists since 2006.
Background:-1. First conflict 1948 (led by Prince Abdul Karim Khan)
In April 1948, Baloch nationalists claim that the central government sent the Pakistan army, which allegedly forced Mir Ahmed Yar Khan to give up his state, Kalat. Kalat was a landlocked British protectorate that comprised roughly 22%–23% of Baluchistan. Mir Ahmed Yar Khan signed an accession agreement ending Kalat's de facto independence. His brother, Prince Abdul Karim Khan, was a powerful governor of a section of Kalat, a position that he was removed from after accession. He decided to initiate an insurgency against Pakistan. On the night of May 16, 1948 Prince Abdul Karim Khan initiated a separatist movement against the Pakistani government. He conducted guerrilla warfare based in Afghanistan against the Pakistan army.
2. Second conflict 1958–59 (led by Nawab Nowroz Khan)
Nawab Nowroz Khan took up arms in resistance to the One Unit policy, which decreased government represenation for tribal leaders. He and his followers started a guerrilla war against Pakistan. Nowroz Khan and his followers were charged with treason and arrested and confined in Hyderabad jail. Five of his family members (sons and nephews) were subsequently hanged under charges of aiding murder of Pakistani troops and treason. Nawab Nowroz Khan later died in captivity.
3. Third conflict 1963–69 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)
After the second conflict, the Federal government sent the Army to build new military bases in the key conflict areas of Baluchistan in order to resist further chaos. Nawab Khair Baksh marri appointed an unknow shero marri to lead like-minded militants in guerrilla warfare by creating their own insurgent bases spread out over 45,000 miles (72,000 km) of land, from the Mengal tribal area in the south to the Marri and Bugti tribal areas in the north. Their goal was to force Pakistan to share revenue generated from the Sui gas fields with the tribal leaders. The insurgents bombed railway tracks and ambushed convoys. The Army retaliated by destroying vast areas of the Marri tribe's land. This insurgency ended in 1969 and the Baloch separatists agreed to a ceasefire. Yahya Khan abolished the "One Unit" policy. This eventually led to the recognition of Baluchistan as the fourth
province of West Pakistan (present-day Pakistan) in 1970, containing all the Baluchistani princely states, the High Commissioners Province and Gwadar, an 800 km2 coastal area purchased by the Pakistani Government from Oman.
4. Fourth conflict 1973–77 (led by Nawab Khair Baksh Marri)
Citing treason, President Bhutto dismissed the provincial governments of Baluchistan and NWFP and imposed martial law in those provinces. Dismissal of the provincial
governments led to armed insurgency. Khair Bakhsh Marri formed the Baluchistan
People’s Liberation Front (BPLF), which led large numbers of Marri and Mengal tribesmen into guerrilla warfare against the central government. According to some authors, the Pakistani military lost 300 to 400 soldiers during the conflict with the Balochi separatists, while between 7,300 and 9,000 Balochi militants and civilians were killed.
5. Fifth conflict 2004 – to date (led by Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri)
In 2005, the Baluch political leaders Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri
presented a 15-point agenda to the Pakistan government. Their stated demands included greater control of the province's resources and a Moratorium on the construction of military bases. On 15 December 2005, Inspector-General of Frontier Corps Maj Gen Shujaat Zamir Dar and his deputy Brig Salim Nawaz (the current IGFC) were wounded after shots were fired at their helicopter in Baluchistan province. The provincial interior secretary later said that "both of them were wounded in the leg but both are in stable condition." The two men had been visiting Kohlu, about 220 km (135 miles) south-east of Quetta, when their aircraft came under fire. The helicopter landed safely.
In August 2006, Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, 79 years old, was killed in fighting with the Pakistan Army in which at least 60 Pakistani soldiers and 7 officers were killed. He was charged by Pakistan's government of a series of bomb blasts, killings of the people he professed to protect and the rocket attack on the President Pervez Musharraf.
In April 2009, Baloch National Movement president Ghulam Mohammed Baloch and two other nationalist leaders (Lala Munir and Sher Muhammad), were seized from a small legal office and were allegedly "handcuffed, blindfolded and hustled into a waiting pickup truck which is in still use of intelligence forces in front of their lawyer and neighboring
shopkeepers."The gunmen were allegedly speaking in Persian (a national language of neighboring Afghanistan and Iran) Five days later on April 8 their bodies, "riddled with bullets" were found in a commercial area.The BLA claims Pakistani forces were behind the killings, though international experts have deemed it odd that the Pakistani forces would be careless enough to allow the bodies to be found so easily and 'light Baluchistan on fire' (Herald) if they were truly responsible. The discovery of the bodies sparked “rioting and weeks of strikes, demonstrations and civil resistance" in cities and towns around
Baluchistan.
On August 12, 2009, Khan of Kalat Mir Suleiman Dawood declared himself ruler of Baluchistan and formally made announcement of a Council for Independent Baluchistan. The Council's claimed domain includes "Baloch of Iran", as well as Pakistani Baluchistan, but does not include Afghani Baloch regions,and the Council contains "all separatist leaders including Nawabzada Bramdagh Bugti." He claims that "the UK had a moral responsibility to raise the issue of Baluchistan’s illegal occupation at international level."
Alleged Foreign Support for Baluch rebels
Pakistan has repeatedly accused India, and occasionally the U.S., of supporting the Baluch rebels in order to destabilize the country. India has however categorically denied the allegations on its part, stating that no concrete evidence has been provided. The facts are controversial, but Pakistan still continues to insist. Iran has repeatedly accused
America of supporting Jundullah. After his capture, Jundullah leader Abdulmalek Rigi confirmed these allegations. The US has however denied this. However, neutral observers have repeatedly noted that the Baloch nationalist groups are poorly-trained in military tactics and strategy, and are currently outgunned by the Pakistani state. The groups are mainly armed with small non-automatic weapons and AK-47s, which are widely available in Pakistan, and they currently are not skilled at using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), which is seen as strong circumstantial evidence that they are not supported by outside powers, contrary to the repeated statements of the Pakistani state.
Baluchi rebels in Pakistan are said to receive major support from the Taliban in
Afghanistan. In the 1980s the CIA, the Iraqi Intelligence Service, Pakistani Sunni extremist group Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan and the Mujahedin e-Kalq all supported a Baluchi tribal
uprising against Iran. Pakistan has also accused India of giving citizenship to senior Balouch SeparatistSelig S. Harrison of the George Soros funded Center for International Policy has been calling for dividing Pakistan and supporting an independent Baluch province as a means to thwart growing relations between Islamabad and Beijing, as Pakistan has given China a base at Gwadar. These views have been separately promoted by Ralph Peters, an zionist strategic affairs analyst and former U.S. Army officer, and an expert on the Middle East and the Islamic world.
Saindak Copper Gold Project:
Saindak Copper-Gold Mine is located in Saindak town, district Chaghi Baluchistan, Pakistan. The discovery of copper deposits at Saindak was made in the 1970s in
collaboration with a Chinese engineering firm. The Saindak Copper-Gold Project was set up by Saindak Metals Ltd, a company wholly owned by the government of Pakistan, by the end of 1995 at a cost of Rs.13.5 billion.
Pakistan and China signed a formal contract worth $350 million for development of Saindak Copper-Gold Project. The project was leased for 10 year to a Chinese company called Metallurgical Construction Corp (MCC), which is due to expire in September 2012. Under the lease agreement, MCC was to run the project on an annual rent of $500,000 plus a 50 per cent share of copper sales to the Pakistani government.
The project was based on estimated ore reserves of 412 million tonnes containing on average 0.5 gram of gold per ton and 1.5 grams of silver per ton. According to official estimates, the project has the capacity to produce 15,800 ton of blister copper annually, containing 1.5 ton of gold and 2.8 ton of silver.
Reko Diq Copper Gold
Project:-Reko Diq is a small town in Chagai District, Baluchistan, Pakistan, in a desert area, 70 kilometres north-west of Naukundi, close to Pakistan's border with Iran and Afghanistan. The area is located in Tethyan belt that stretches all the way from Turkey and Armenia into Pakistan.
Reko Diq has proven gold and copper reserves worth US $125 billion. It is estimated that area has 12.3 million tons of world class copper and 20.9 million ounces of gold.
However, later it has been claimed by several Pakistani scholars that the gold and copper reserves worth is far more than estimated earlier, that is 1000 billion dollars.
The Reko Diq Mining Project is a US$ 3.3 billion capital investment project that promises to build and operate a world class copper-gold open-pit mine at Reko Diq. TCC (Tethyan Copper Company), which is actually Canadian-Chilian based company, is responsible for minning at Reko Diq.
Gawadar:-Gawadar Port is a developing warm-water, deep-sea port situated at Gwadar in
Baluchistan province of Pakistan at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, about 460 km west of Karachi and approximately 75 km (47 mi) east of Pakistan's border with Iran. The port is located on the eastern bay of a natural
Background:-On 8 September 1958, Pakistan purchased the Gwadar enclave from Oman for $3 million. Gwadar officially became part of Pakistan on 8 December 1958. At the time, Gwadar was a small and underdeveloped fishing village with a population of a few thousand.
The Pakistani government integrated Gwadar into Baluchistan province on 1 July 1977 as the district headquarters of the newly formed Gwadar District.
In the 1993, the Government of Pakistan formally conceived the plan to develop Gwadar into a major port city with a deep-sea port and connect it with Pakistan's highway and rail networks. On 22 March 2002, the Government of Pakistan began construction of Gwadar Port, a modern deep-sea port, the first phase of which was completed in December 2005. Gwadar Port became operational in December 2009.
The city underwent major construction from 2002-07. In 2002, Pakistan's National
Highway Authority (NHA) began construction of the 653 km-long Makran Coastal Highway linking Gwadar with Karachi via Pasni and Ormara and onwards with the rest of the
National Highways of Pakistan, which was completed in 2004. In 2003, the Gwadar Development Authority was established to oversee the planning and development of Gwadar. In 2004, Pakistan's NHA began construction of the 820-km long M8 motorway linking Gwadar with Ratodero in Sindh province via Turbat, Hoshab, Awaran and Khuzdar and onwards with the rest of the Motorways of Pakistan. In 2006, the Gwadar
Development Authority conceived, developed and adopted a 50-year Master Plan for Gwadar. In 2007, the Civil Aviation Authority of Pakistan acquired 4,300 acres to
construct a new greenfield airport, the New Gwadar International Airport, on 6,000 acres, at an estimated cost of Rs. 7.5 billion. China has funded 80% of the initial $248 million construction of the city.However China has not announced being requested to operate the port by Pakistan.
Importance of Gawadar Port for
China:-Gwadar Port is being constructed in two phases with heavy investment from China.
Technical and financial feasibility studies were commenced by the Government of Pakistan in 1993 but construction did not commence until 2002. The Gwadar Port was built on a turnkey basis by China. It was inaugurated in the spring of 2007 by then Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf. Upon completion of the first phase, the Port of Singapore Authority was hired for the management of the Port. Gwadar Port is now being expanded into a deep sea port and naval base with Chinese technical and financial
assistance. Gwadar Port became operational in 2008 with the first ship to dock bringing 52.000 tonnes of wheat from Canada. Pakistan's Minister of Ports and Shipping Sardar Nabil Ahmed Khan Gabol officially inaugurated the Port on 21 December 2008.
China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the
Karakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan relationship. Beijing is also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from
Gwadar into China's Xinjiang region. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major war.
Commercially, it is hoped that the Gwadar Port would generate billions of dollars in revenues and create at least two million jobs. In 2007, the government of Pakistan handed over port operations to PSA Singapore for 25 years, and gave it the status of a Tax Free Port for the following 40 years.
Baluchistan:-The most pressing and hurtful issue right now, though, is that of the ‘missing’ people. Human rights groups and Baloch political parties claim as many as 13,000 people are missing in the province, while the provincial government acknowledges fewer than 1,000 people have been picked up. Even if the true number lies somewhere in between, these statistics need to be reconciled. After that, a promise needs to be given that no citizen of Baluchistan need ever fear for his life just for exercising his right to political dissent.
Target Killing in
Baluchistan:-According to Baluchistan police records, there were 256 incidents of targeting in
Baluchistan in 2009 that killed 200 people and injured 387. In 2010, 231 incidents were reported that killed 255 and injured 498. In the first three months of 2011, at least 39 incidents have occurred, which killed 38 and injured 66. Baluchistan Constabulary
Commandant Ghulam Shabbir Shah, speaking in Karachi recently, said that target killings are set to break all previous records in the province.
Various shades of targets
According to Shah, no target killings are reported in the province’s Pashtun-dominated areas, including Musakhel, Zhob, Loralai, Ziarat, Pishin, Harnai and Sibi.
The claim was confirmed by Pakhtunkhwa Awami Milli Party’s senior leader Abdul Rahim Khan Mandokhel but, he said, Pakhtun Baloch have been targeted in two or three cases. “Some unsuccessful attempts have been made to create a wedge between the Pakhtuns and Baloch,” he said.
Most target killing and terrorism incidents are reported in the districts of Quetta, Mastung, Bolan, Noshki, Kalat, Khuzdar, Kech, Gwadar, Lasbela and Panjgur. Four types of target killings are reported in Baluchistan: Attacks on people who have settled in the province, assassinations of policemen and Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, sectarian killings and murders of political workers.
1. Settlers
Settlers in Baluchistan are numbered at least 461,328 and mostly comprise Punjabis, Seraikis and Urdu-speaking people. According to police statistics, based on inquiry and FIRs, at least 180 settlers have been shot dead between 2009 and March 2011.
Officials admit that investigations into most target killings of settlers remain unsolved. “There is a joke in the province that if you want authorities to stop pursuing a murder case, have it claimed by one of the many rebel groups operating in Baluchistan,” says National Party Vice-President Hasil Bizenjo.
One such case is that of University of Baluchistan’s Professor Nazima Talib whose first death anniversary approaches on April 27.
“These cases are difficult to crack because Baloch people sympathise with rebel groups and, despite knowing who the murderers are, choose to remain quiet,” says Shah. 2. Security personnel
At least 120 policemen and 66 FC personnel have been killed between 2009 and March 2011.
Shah says that despite clear evidence that police have suffered more, there is a severe lack of resources. “It is very easy to blame civilian institutions for failing to curb crime. But the truth is we don’t have the resources to even fight petty dacoits who have more
sophisticated arms and equipment,” he said. On the other hand, FC and army units even get food rations for troops.
3. Sectarian
Sectarian killings have been mostly targeted against Hazara Shias, who came to
Baluchistan decades ago from Afghanistan and Iran. Police and counter-terrorism officials say that anti-Shia militant groups such as Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP) and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) are active in Baluchistan.
But Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl’s (JUI-F) Secretary-General Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri, who hails from Kalat, says he doesn’t know if the SSP or LeJ are involved. “Experience shows that the state and intelligence agencies are the ones behind groups that instigate sectarian violence and ethnic strife,” he said.
4. Political
Political party workers allege that they are being targeted not only by the state but by rebels as well.
Bizenjo, whose party has lost three senior leaders, says the heavily-armed rebels are against nationalists because “they say that you talk about federation when we are here up in the mountains waging a battle against the state.”
Baluchistan National Party-Mengal’s (BNP-M) Dr Jehanzaib Jamaldini says the party lost one of their best leaders Habib Jalib last year in a target killing. “All evidence points to state elements being behind the murder,” he said.
Hundreds of Baloch men, including political workers, have gone missing in the province. Bizenjo believes Baluchistan’s security situation is interconnected with Fata and
Afghanistan and violence is bound to continue unless things improve there. “Until it is decided that nowhere in the country will anyone be allowed to hold a gun, the state will not be able to establish its writ and target killings will continue,” he said.
Haideri says the government should either accept failure and step down or admit that it is involved in target killings in the province.
Analysis:-It has long been an open secret that paramilitary forces and intelligence agencies have been holding sway in Baluchistan. This was finally acknowledged by the province’s advocate general, Salahuddin Mengal, in front of the Supreme Court, when he revealed that the Frontier Constabulary (FC) was picking up and even killing people. Although not a surprise, this revelation is important because the Supreme Court is the only institution in the country that has shown the courage to take on the army. The court must now haul up senior officers of the FC to explain the role it is playing in Baluchistan.
However, the Supreme Court alone cannot solve Baluchistan’s problems. The utter lack of confidence the Baloch have in the army and the federal government requires much
greater action. Separatist sentiment is now running deep in the province and the provincial government lacks legitimacy because most political figures have boycotted mainstream politics. Bringing them back into the fold should be an immediate priority. This would require the army to recede and take a low profile, and an accounting of all those who went missing in the province. Following that, a far greater share in the spoils of Baluchistan’s economic development needs to be given to locals. From the development of a deep-sea port in Gwadar to royalties in mining projects, the Baloch feel they have been deliberately cheated out of profits from their resources. Only after this is rectified, will the separatist parties begin to tone down their rhetoric.
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Clash of Civilizations
World Politics is entering in a new phase which will be end of history,the return of
traditional rivalries between nation states and the decline of nation state from conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism. Fundamental conflicts would not be ideological or
economic but cultural conflicts. Nation states would remain the most dominant and powerful actors.Clash of civilization will dominate the global politics. With the peace of Westphalia conflict of western world were among princes, emperors, absolute or constitutional monarchs to expand their armies, bureaucracies, mercantilist economic strength. In this process they created nation states beginning with French revolution. The principle lines of conflict were between the nations rather princes.
ANALYSIS
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many scholars predicted that the future of world and where nations would advance. Huntington’s idea in ‘the clash of civilization’ is a representative case among the various views on the new world and it caused lots of debates about the pros and cons of his thought. In the ‘clash of civilization,’ Huntington argues that conflicts of contemporary world (after the end of Cold War) are not ideological nor economical but cultural and phenomenon such as confrontations and antagonisms among nations which are caused by clashes of different civilizations would rise
remarkably. However, Said criticized that ‘the clash of civilization’ is a creature of the imperative conception that the West should hold the hegemony of ‘new world order.’ This essay, therefore, explores the theory of ‘the clash of civilization’ and criticizes several points which are mentioned in it.
A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short that which distinguishes human from other species. It is defined both by common objective elements, such as language, history,and religion. In short, while Huntington is
right to see religion as a factor in the coming era of world politics, the role of religion will go well beyond serving as a touchstone for culture. Religion is more than culture. It transcends civilizations. In the end, to listen to the believers among us, it will transcend history itself.
Harvard Professor Samuel P. Huntington caused intellectual explosion by publishing his article clash of civilizations in the American journal Foreign Affairs in 1993. He asserts Civilizations are the largest aggregates that command human loyalties and account for
much of the bloodshed in the recorded human history. Cold war marked a brief departure from it but now old enemies could go to the past time, waging wars against each other. The biggest threat to the west at present comes from China and Islam. He argues that now the cold war had ended, future conflicts in the world politics would be less between states and more between civilizations or coalitions of culture.
He asserts his point of view,
In this emerging era of cultural conflict the United States must forge alliances with similar cultures and spread its values wherever possible. With alien civilizations the West must be accommodating if possible, but confrontational if necessary. In the final analysis,
however, all civilizations will have to learn to tolerate each other.”
There is now a danger of hot war of religion to succeed the cold war of ideologies, the new trend between America and allies, on the one hand, and Muslim countries such as Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia, on the other hand. Both American capitalism and Russian Commission were born out of European culture.
Present Scenario of mistrust and bloodshed:
The 9/11 attack was termed as beginning of clash of civilizations, when Tony Blair exclaimed as,
“They have attacked on our civilization.”
President Bush declared war against Afghanistan as Crusades. The question arises
whether the significance of September 11, 2001, the attacks on the US, the devastation of Afghanistan, the Israeli onslaught on the Palestinians homeland and Lebanon, the plans to divide Iraq and invade Iran Somalia, and Sudan, all add up to an unfolding conflict
between the United States and its closet allies (Israel and UK) on the one hand, and more and more Muslim countries, on the other hand.
The tumult caused by the publication of the caricature of the Holy Prophet in the
Norwegian Newspaper. The growing phenomenon of linking fundamentalism to extremism and extremism to Islam and Islam to terrorism sent a shocking wave to Enlightened
Muslims.Clear discrimination against members of the Muslim community in Switzerland.No French citizenship for burka-clad women’s husband.
US hegmony:
• American – Gulliver of the globe.
• Economic globalization under American influence. • Information globalization under American influence. • Comprehensive globalization under American influence. • One super power and security system for the globe.
• First among unequal: US is so far ahead of its nearest military rival, Russia; its nearest economic rival, Japan/china its technological rival Germany.
Why Civilizations will Clash?
(1).Differences among civilization are basic. (2)World is becoming a small place.
(3)Process of Economic modernization and social change.
(4)Growth of civilization is enhanced by the dual role of the west.
(5)Cultural differences are less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones.
(6)Economic nationalism is increasing Clash of civilization has two levels (a)Micro Level
(b)Macro Level
Hidden Objectives under this Theory:
A clash of culture did occur when President Bush used to Taliban, the Language of ultimatum over surrendering us Usama, just hand over Usama Bin Laden and his thugs. There is nothing to talk about. It shows he was trying to get the Taliban to say NO, so that Bush could embark on his long awaited military action to capture Afghanistan. The threat of weapons of mass destruction from North Korea is more real than that of Iraq, but till now 6,00,000 Iraqis have been butchered with their President hanged.
For ‘Greater Israel’ Hezbollah, Iran and Syria are on the hit list as their culture of Violence in the words of Bush. “Put future threats to the security of America.”
Pluralistic Dimensions of Islamic Civilization:
Islam was not spread by sword, as misinterpreted by Pope, the living evidence is Arab Land itself where millions of Christian and the Jews are practicing their faith with complete liberty. Ruthless killing of innocent citizens committed by Napolean, Chengiz khan and observed in the world wars are much greater than by Saddam or any other Muslim Despot.
In the Muslim world, the women are awarded more dignity than in the west, far less prostitution than in the west, no beauty competitions. Sons in the Muslim world respect their mothers more than sons in the west. There was ethnic cleansing which displaced thousands of Palestinians to make room for the Jews. An ideology was formed in which some one from the Ukraine who claims to have had a Jewish ancestors two thousands years ago had more rights under Israel’s Law of Return than Palestinian who ran away from Israeli borders in 1948.
The Role of Religion in Huntington’s paradigm
The role of religion is a problem in Huntington’s paradigm. As noted, in sorting the world along civilizational lines, he assigns religion a preeminemt place. More than any other factor, according to Huntington, religious affiliation signifies "who we are" and "who we are not." It identifies kin and marks prospective rivals. Yet implicit in Huntington’s argument is the notion that religion in its own right is without standing. Religion
illuminates politics, but should play no independent role in politics. (It is a safe bet that when Huntington calls for the revival of Western civilization he is not advocating
restoration of One Holy Roman Catholic and Apostolic Church exercising authority over secular affairs.) For Huntington, religion—particularly religion in the West—is an
anachronism, something that was itself once alive and powerful but that now survives largely as artifact or memento. Yet in thus consigning religion to role of cultural ID card, Huntington misconstrues its significance, both politically and otherwise.
#4
• Intellectual and collective effort
The present ongoing clash is not a physical phenomenon and does no require use of force, which has proved a big failure, even after using Hi-Tech weapons. Rather it demands intellectual and collective effort by all responsible scholars, Heads of States, Soldiers and Politicians.
• Inter faith dialogue
Inter faith dialogue to create harmony because Islam gives high esteem to all other religions of book and their prophets.
• True Muslim scholars
True Muslim scholars in collaboration with other Priests, can hold joint Seminars to generate harmony and shed clouds of ignorance and prejudice.
• UN
The world body UN should fear the dreadful end of League of Nations, so it needs vitality and firmness to implement its fair decisions, irrespective US influence which has divided the world.
• Media power
Media power can be used for bridging the gulf among biased nations and cultures.
• Education system
Education system is a basic tool in polishing individuals with qualities of compassion and Humanism.
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Drone Attacks, FATA and Haqqani Network
Introduction
The use of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs), commonly known as drones, is a new
technology used in modern warfare. An unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), also known as a Unmanned aircraft System (UAS) or a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) or unmanned aircraft functions either by the remote control of a navigator or pilot (called a Combat Systems Officer on UCAVs) or autonomously, that is, as a self-directing entity. Their largest use is within military applications.
In the current so-called ‘War on Terror’, the same has been frequently used by the United States in Pakistan and Afghanistan. A lot has been said against American drone attacks as a violation of sovereignty of Pakistan but the issue is getting more intense by each
passing day. When the US drones attack Pakistan’s tribal areas, it is not just the ten, twenty or fifty innocent civilians they kill but it creates the anti-US sentiments in masses and a global feeling of disgust against US. Few stay mum and numb but there is large number of victims who vent their hatred very violently against US and its ally Pakistan. US is insensitive to the fact that civilian killings in these drone attacks provides reason to the youngsters for joining terrorist groups waging war against US and of course Pakistan, for being its closest ally in war on terror.
The drone strikes have pushed militants deeper into Pakistan and gave them an excuse to strike the heart of the country, further destabilizing it. No doubt drone attacks did kill some militants but at what cost???
To further probe into this aspect, this presentation will look into functioning of drones, negative and positive aspects in pertinent to our country vis-à-vis drawing some conclusions.
Definition
To distinguish UAVs from missiles, a UAV is defined as a "powered, aerial vehicle that does not carry a human operator, uses aerodynamic forces to provide vehicle lift, can fly autonomously or be piloted remotely, can be expendable or recoverable, and can carry a lethal or nonlethal payload". Therefore, cruise missiles are not considered UAVs, because, like many other guided missiles, the vehicle itself is a weapon that is not reused, even though it is also unmanned and in some cases remotely guided.
US, Pakistan, Tribal’s & UN’s Point of View on Drone Attacks
1. US Point of View
a. Self defense
i. Preemptive Strategy. Bill was passed by congress in 2002 under Bush administration to carry out attacks in preemption and self defense of its citizen and state in pursuance to September 11 attacks on twin tower.
ii. International Protocol on Hot Pursuit
b. Symmetric decimation of Al-Qaeda leadership c. Use of highly sophisticated technology
e. Opposition within US
2. Pakistan’s Point of view
a. Officialb. Response of opposition parties, civil society and media c. Wiki leaks
d. Pakistan military official papers
3. United Nations Point of View
On 27 October 2010 UNHRC investigator Philip Alston called on the US to demonstrate that it was not randomly killing people in violation of international law through its use of drones on the Afghan border. Alston criticized the US's refusal to respond to date to the UN's concerns. Said Alston, "Otherwise you have the really problematic bottom line, which is that the Central Intelligence Agency is running a program that is killing significant
numbers of people and there is absolutely no accountability in terms of the relevant international laws."
‘’Alston, however, acknowledged that the drone attacks may be justified under the right to self-defense. He called on the US to be more open about the program. Alston's report was submitted to the United Nations Commission on Human Rights the following day’’
‘’The US representative at UNHRC has argued that the UN investigator for extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions does not have jurisdiction over US military actions’’
4. Opinion of FATA Locals
The New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow have conducted the first comprehensive public opinion survey covering sensitive political issues in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The unprecedented survey, from June 30 to July 20, 2010, consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents age 18 or older across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal Agencies of FATA, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, and field work by the locally-based Community Appraisal & Motivation Programme.
More than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose American drone strikes. Indeed, only 16 percent think these strikes accurately target militants; 45 percent think they largely kill civilians and another 39 percent feel they kill both civilians and militants.
Statistical Data of Drone Attacks in Pakistan
The US ramped up the number of strikes in July 2008, and has continued to regularly hit at Taliban and Al Qaeda targets inside Pakistan. There have been 264 strikes total since the program began in 2004. From 2000-2005 there were only one drone strike each year,3 in 2006, 5 in 2007, 35 in 2008, 53 in 2009, 117 in 2010 and 49 ,so far, in 2011. Of the 264 strikes since 2004, 182 have hit targets in North Waziristan, and 67 have hit targets in South Waziristan, Khyber agency=5, Kurram=4, Bannu=3, Bajaur=3,
Orakzai=1.
Since 2006, there have been 2,080 leaders and operatives from Taliban, Al Qaeda, and allied extremist groups killed and138 civilians killed.
The majority of the attacks have taken place in the tribal areas administered by four powerful Taliban groups: the Mehsuds, Mullah Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and the
Haqqanis. In 2010, there was a dramatic shift in strikes to tribal areas administered by Hafiz Gul Bahadar.
The Pakistani government considers Nazir, the Haqqanis, Bahadar, and Hekmatyar to be 'good Taliban' as they do not carry out attacks against the Pakistani state. All of these Taliban factions shelter al Qaeda and various other terror groups.
Critical
Analysis:-Positive Fallouts
1. Technological Advancement
As revolution in military affairs, UAVs offer the possibility of cheaper, more capable fighting aircrafts that could be used for multipurpose tasking without a life risk to aircrews.
2. Tactical advantage
The drones program is effective in terms of getting terrorist operatives in places where there's limited reach or no accessibility.
3. Accuracy and Precision
Due to built in sensors and laser guided munitions the predator strikes are accurate and precise in causing devastating effects to the desired target.
4. With the help of precision strikes predator strikes have successfully killed top militant commanders and Al-Qaida operatives like Nek Muhammad, Baitullah Mahsud, Ilyas Kashmiri etc.
5. No life loss to crew as the predator is operated without a pilot
6. Surveillance capability and updation of information of intelligence value.
Negative Fallouts
1. Sovereignty and Integrity
Compromising sovereignty and integrity as no international law permits aggression and use of force against another sovereign nation.
2. Breeding suicide bombers/terrorist
US has become insensitive to the fact that carrying of drone strikes is in turn giving a reason to the youngsters of the affected areas to join militant groups and continue undertaking terror activities and suicide bombings against them and Pakistan being its ally. In KPK 49.9% people (1499) have been killed due to suicide bombing, 27.7% (834) in Punjab, 17.5%(562) in FATA, and 5%(150) in other provinces.
3. Indiscriminate killing with no differentiation between friend and foe
Although International protocol regarding Hot Pursuit Operations permits haunt of terrorist with no geographical boundaries limitations however in carrying out such practice no international or domestic law permits killing of innocent civilians or non combatants4. Anti state sentiments particularly against LEAs
These drone attacks are creating a sense of resentment against the state as the tolerance level of effected has crossed the threshold over inability of the state to counter or curb the violation and killings of people in tribal regions due to drones.
5. Questions legality/ Jurisdiction of court over extra judicial killings
No court of law is taking any action over such killings6. Deteriorating image of country and terming as a terrorist breeding nation 7. Strained relations with US
8. Condemn by Religious parties 9. Anti US Sentiments
10. Poses high alert and retaliatory situation for LEAs operating in such territories.
Legal Implications/ Conclusions
Firstly, the rumors that the government of Pakistan might have signed a secret agreement with the US is irrelevant and misleading because under the Vienna Convention on
Treaties, no such treaty is valid. Moreover under Art 102 of the UN Charter, such treaties have no legal standing.
Secondly, the drone attacks in Pakistani territory are a serious violation of the International Law as they are like attacking a sovereign country.
No judicial Inquiry has been over extra judicial killings caused by such attacks.The domestic laws of both countries i.e US and Pakistan do not allow extra judicial killing in any manner whatsoever the reason may be.
The United Nations charter doesnot allow any aggression or use of force against another state
The International Humanitarian Law clearly differentiate between a ‘Combatant’ and ‘a non combatant’ or a civilian whereas these attacks are carried out indiscriminately without having any regard for the rule of law
There might be different interpretation of the term ‘Intervention ‘but at least four
considerations are to be taken into account for determining its validity on moral and legal grounds.
a. Proportionality. b. Distinction of target.
c. The agent carrying out the strikes.
d. The process or manner in which targeting decisions are made.
US drone attacks fall short on all above mentioned accounts. That’s the reason why NATO does’nt openly support them and declares them as “Amercian Operations”. Different humanitarian organizations and the UN secretary General has shown their concerns over the issue.
The term used by the US “Unlawful Combatants” is not mentioned anywhere in the international Humanitarian Law (the Law of War). No inquiry has been made as to what had been the actual targets of such attacks. The rule of law prohibits extra judicial killings in each and every circumstances and unlike International Humanitarian Law, the
International Human Rights Law remain intact in all kinds of situations (war or peace). Therefore, on the above grounds, drone attacks inside Pakistan territory can not be justified on any grounds whatsoever.
Recommendations
1. Operation within our territory is the responsibility of state therefore drone technology be transferred to Pakistan for carrying out operation even in the airspace by LEAs
themselves instead of US.
2. Sharing of Information between ISI & CIA to minimize collateral damage and avoid incidents of targeting own check posts/Border Outposts and a previous incident of innocent killings during a jirga.
3. Sending strong Message by Pakistani representatives at all international forums highlighting the issues.
4. Constitution of commissions to inquire extra judicial killings and document the decree for presentation at UNHRC and all forums for its pursuance.
5. US be asked to avoid delivery of toxic/chemical munitions through hellfire missiles as it bears negative externalities by causing severe skin diseases to the nearby populace. 6. Elimination of all acts which gives US a reason to carryout drones
Haqqani
Network:-The Haqqani Network is an independent insurgent group originating in Afghanistan that is closely allied with the Taliban. Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani along with his son Sirajuddin Haqqani lead the Haqqani network, which is based in the Afghanistan–Pakistan border areas. According to US military commanders it is "the most resilient enemy network" and one of the biggest threats to NATO and United States forces in Afghanistan. Some notable US officials have alleged that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) service has been enabling the network. Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, refuted the allegations and said that Pakistan had no relations with the network and that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had "trained and produced" the Haqqani network and other mujahideen during the Soviet war in Afghanistan. Malik's statements were contradicted by the network's warnings against any US military incursions into North Waziristan and by the Pakistan Army's public acknowledgement of contacts with the Haqqanis.The Haqqanis hail from the Zadran qaum (tribe), who are mostly based in Paktia and Khost provinces in the east of Afghanistan.The group has been active mainly in the east of Afghanistan—in Paktia, Paktika, Khost, Ghazni Wardak and even Kabul provinces.
Critical
Analysis:-The New York Times reported in September 2008 that Pakistan regards the Haqqani's as an important force for protecting its interests in Afghanistan in the event of American withdrawal from there and therefore have been unwilling to move against them. Pakistan presumably feels pressured that India, Russia, and Iran are gaining a foothold in
Afghanistan. Since it lacks the financial clout of these other countries, Pakistan hopes that by being a sanctuary for the Haqqani network, it can assert some influence over its
turbulent neighbour. In the words of a retired senior Pakistani official: "[We] have no money.
All we have are the crazies. So the crazies it is." The New York Times and Al Jazeera later reported in June 2010 that Pakistan's Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and chief of the ISI General Ahmad Shuja Pasha were in talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai to broker a power-sharing agreement between the Haqqani network and the Afghan government. Reacting to this report both President Barack Obama and CIA director Leon Panetta responded with skepticism that such an effort could succeed. The effort to
mediate between the Haqqanis and the Afghan government was launched by Pakistan after intense pressure by the US to take military action against the group in North
#5
Waziristan. Hamid Karzai later denied meeting anyone from the Haqqani network. Subsequently Kayani also denied that he took part in these talks.
According to a July 2011 report published by West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, the network acts as a key facilitator of negotiations between the Pakistani government and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and as the "primary conduit" of many Pakistani Taliban fighters into Afghanistan.
In September 2011, Sirajuddin Haqqani claimed during a telephonic interview to Reuters that the Haqqani network no longer maintained sanctuaries in northwest Pakistan and the robust presence that it once had there and instead now felt more safer in Afghanistan: "Gone are the days when we were hiding in the mountains along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Now we consider ourselves more secure in Afghanistan besides the Afghan
people." According to Haqqani, there were "senior military and police officials" who are aligned with the group and there are even sympathetic and "sincere people in the Afghan government who are loyal to the Taliban" who support the group's aim of liberating Afghanistan "from the clutches of occupying forces." In response to questions from the BBC's Pashto service, Siraj denied any links to the ISI and stated that Mullah Omar is "our leader and we totally obey him."
The group's links to Pakistan have been a sour point in Pakistan – United States relations. In September 2011 the Obama administration warned Pakistan that it must do more to cut ties with the Haqqani network and help eliminate its leaders, adding that "the United States will act unilaterally if Pakistan does not comply." In testimony before a US Senate panel, Admiral Mike Mullen stated that the network "acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency." Pakistan in return rejected the notion that it
maintained ties with the Haqqani network or used it in a policy of waging a proxy war in neighboring Afghanistan; the Pakistani interior minister also warned that any incursion on Pakistani territory by U.S. forces will not be tolerated. A Pakistani intelligence official insisted that the American allegations are part of "pressure tactics" used by the United States as a strategy "to shift the war theatre." An unnamed Pakistani official was reported to have said after a meeting of the nation's top military officials that “We have already conveyed to the US that Pakistan cannot go beyond what it has already done".
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Introduction
In 1987, the Government of Pakistan (GOP) with the assistance of the World Bank formulated its long term strategy for development of the power sector in reliable power would spur economic growth. With energy demand growing at 12 percent and supply at 7 percent per annum. Load shedding was rampant with
consequential output losses for industry and agriculture. It was estimated that the annual gap of 2000 MW of electricity cost the country approximately $1 billion per year in lost GDP. Electricity was available to only 40 percent of the population and per capita consumption of 404 kWh was only 4 percent of that in the United States and 24 percent of consumption in Malaysia.
IPPs
Pakistan had to catch up fast and the development of new capacity became the top priority, but the Government of Pakistan (GOP) lacked the funds for infrastructure development. Consequently, the private sector was invited to develop new generating capacity. It was rationalised that the private sector would not only supplement public sector generation, it would also mobilise additional equity and debt resources and improve the efficiency in the energy sector.
The new energy policy was implemented in a period of high political volatility in the early 1990s. The first Benazir Bhutto government (elected in 1988) was dismissed by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in 1992. She was succeeded by Nawaz Sharif who initiated a number of free market reforms and also signed Pakistan’s first IPP contract for the largest power sector project with the Hub Power Company in
1992. Disagreements with the President led to the dismissal of this government also, and an interim government was installed which held fresh elections in which the second Bhutto government was elected in November 1993. During its tenure, the Bhutto government signed a number of IPP contracts under the 1994 Power Policy and in June 1996, Pakistan’s first private sector power plant, the Hub Power Company (Hubco) came into operation.
Current Situation
Currently the situation Installed capacity is as following . a. Total installed capacity 20681 MW
b. WAPDA hydel 6,555 MW (31%) c. WAPDA thermal power, 4829 MW d. RPPs 365 MW
e. PAEC 665 MW f. IPPs 7644 MW
Currently Production is 11500 MW and Demand is 15500 MWAdditional quantity is not being produced due to lack fundsand circular debt problem.IPPs and Wapda owned plants also have lost efficiency now only producing 50% of full capacity and even less.Production of additional quantity will cause Govt to increase rates due to increase in thermal factor(variable costs of electricity produced by thermal varies between Rs 12 to 19,while by Hydel variable cost is less than Rs1).So the result is rampant load shedding, blow to agriculture and industry and high Social cost.
Impacts of IPPs
Impacts of IPPs are both positive as well as negative, positive impacts include: a. Enhanced the capacity of power sector
b. Supported the economic activity from 2000 to 2007 c. Provided a cushion time to built long term power projects d. Provided vital support in short span of time
Negative impacts include:
a. Bulk tariff ceiling instead of competitive bidding resulted in high tariffs b. Increase in Thermal component also contributed toward price hike ,i.e. 60% c. Lack of transparency in contracts as discussed earlier
d. Since 2001 though it has supported eco activity but due to oil price hike and increase in thermal factor it has caused following problems :
a) Higher power tariff causing inflation especially after 2005-2006 b) Costly export goods
e. Low performance by old plants has aggravated power shortage f. IPPs are not environment friendly and cause lot of pollution
Reasons for Power Deficit / Load Shedding
1. Lack of Adequate Investment after induction of IPPs – resultantly No Capacity Additions during 2002-2008.
2. No Worthwhile Foreign Investment, while there was reduced interest by Private Sector as well, despite solicitations
3. As a Policy, Public Sector not allowed to add new capacity, fully banking on Private Sector, which showed limited interest
4. Quantum Jump in Power Demand due to: ü Consumption led growth strategy of 2002-2008 ü Unplanned Rural Electrification during 2002-2007
5. 8.53% Load Growth, even during the current international financial melt down.
6. Extra high Load Growth in Urban Areas, which is more than 20% in Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Multan, D.G. Khan, Faisalabad, Lahore, Gujranwala, Rawalpindi/Islamabad and Peshawar.
7. Air-conditioning load in Pakistan is more than 5000 MW, while the average shortage is around 3000 MW. 8. No major Hydel Plant due to lack of political consensus.
9. Diversion of Gas by SNGPL & SSGC, resultant shift to Oil, jacking-up cost of production, loss and availability of generation upto 1,500 MW
10. No tariff increase from FY 2003 to FY 2007, in spite of steep rise in Oil prices – resultant financial strangulation of Power Sector
11. Non availability of Funds for development of Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure and rehab of GENCOs - resulting in system constraints
12. Non-Bill Payment and Kunda Culture in major parts of the country hardened over the last one decade 13. Extreme lack of political and administrative support from Provincial Governments
Power Sector Issues
1. Poor Recoveries & Piling Receivables (up to Dec 2009)
• HESCO 56% and receivables Rs.45 billion (Receivables from Govt. of Sindh Rs.20.8 billion) • PESCO 80% and receivables Rs.27 billion
• KESC Rs.49 billion after adjustments 2. Accumulated Circular Debt
• Tariff artificially frozen during 2003-07 in spite of heavy dependence of oil and surge in its prices and increase of cost of service
• Insufficient provision of tariff differential subsidy • Non-payment by KESC, FATA and Provincial Govts.
3. Measures to address the Circular Debt Issue by the present Govt. • DEBTCO established to assume loans of Power Companies (Rs.216 bln) • Issuance of TFCs (Rs.85 bln) to clear FATA arrears
• Subsidy duly budgeted. • FATA dues duly budgeted • NEPRA Act amended.
• Difference between cost of supply and tariff programmed to be bridged through: • Tariff increase in shape of Monthly Fuel Price Adjustment
• Quarterly Tariff Determinations
4. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL (excluding KESC)
a. From 2006-2007 = 18% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 41% by Gas, 3% by others. b. From 2009-2010 = 37% by oil, 38% by Hydro, 22% by Gas, 3% by others.
c. World Average = 5.8% by oil, 16% by Hydro, 20.1% by Gas, 41% by coal, 14.8% by nuclear, 3% by others.
5. CONSUMER MIX & CONSUMPTION PATTERN (excludes KESC) JUL 09-DEC 09 a. 7% commercial, 24% Industrial, 15% Agriculture, 48% Domestic, 6% others.
b. World Average Industrial Consumption is 42%
c. Customers PEPCO: 19.1 million and KESC: 2.0 million 6. Oil Handling Infrastructure
• Present oil requirements is 30,000 ton per day, whereas on the average 24,000 ton oil had been supplied • With new rentals and other thermal plants, this is going to increase further.
• Additional infrastructure and arrangements are required to be made by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources.
• PSO to expedite acceptance of TPS Muzaffargarh Oil Farm (263,000 MTN) as mid-country strategic reserves 7. Uncertainty of Oil Prices
· Volatility in the oil prices directly affecting the viability and affordability of the sector. 8. Investment Required for Development of Indigenous Resources
• Heavy Capital requirement for development of Indigenous resources of Hydro, Coal and Renewable 9. Legal Issues
• The Electricity Act nor supports the Sector legally to force recovery nor helps curb illegal abstraction of energy.
• Draft Energy Conservation Act of 2009 is devoid of any penalties for non compliance Both Need change – Drafts ready with PEPCO
10. Corporate Governance
• Non Professional Management for over 10 years
• Human Resource depletion forced by non professional management • Capacity Issues in every sub sector and activity
• Lack of political support in non-performing DISCOs
• Capacity building of all stakeholders, specially NEPRA required 11. Security Issues
• Security situation negatively affecting Foreign Investment in the Sector
Key Recommendations and Way Forward
1) Demand Supply Position
• Demand will continue to grow by about 8% • Immediate capacity additions required 2) Supply Side and Demand Side Measures
• Government guarantee and financial support is required to install matching capacity in Public Sector otherwise load shedding will persist in view of lack of private sector appetite for investment
3) Cost of Service & Affordability effect
• For financial sustainability, full cost of service needs to be effected, which may increase the tariff • The affordability issue needs to be addressed by targeted subsidies
4) Recoveries
• Political and active Provincial Governmental support is required to help effect recovery of outstanding dues, especially in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO
• At source deduction be allowed to effect recovery of outstanding dues from Provincial Govts and KESC 5) Efficiency Improvement and Theft Control
• Political and active Provincial Governmental support is needed to control theft in HESCO, PESCO & QESCO • Electricity Act & Conservation Act need to be amended to include penalty clauses on theft and energy wastage
6) Allocation of additional gas
• Immediate allocation of additional gas of 350 mmcfd be made to Power Sector. • If not done, the sustainability of Power Sector and affordability will be jeopardized • Availability of gas can save the day
#6
7) Policies
• Strategy to overcome the power crisis should be supported by the set of policy measures • Joint Session of Parliament be summoned to discuss energy crisis and how get out of it.
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Geo – Strategic Importance of Pakistan
Geo strategic means the importance of a country or region as by virtue of its geographical location. Geo political is defined as, stressing the influence of geographic factors on the state power, international conduct and advantages it derives from its location.
Stephen Cohn describes this importance “While history has been unkind to Pakistan, its geography has been its greatest benefit.” It has resource rich area in the north-west, people rich in the north-east.” Pakistan is a junction of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia, a way from resource efficient countries to resource deficient countries.
The world is facing energy crisis and terrorism. Pakistan is a role for transportation, and a front line state against terrorism.
Geographical Importance:
Bridge between South Asia and South West Asia, Iran and Afghanistan are energy abundant while India and China are lacking of. China finds way to Indian ocean and Arabian Sea through Korakaram. China with its fastest economic growth rate of 9%, is developing its southern provinces because its own port is 4500 km away from Sinkian but Gawadar is 2500 km away.
Pakistan offers to CARs the shortest route of 2600 km as compared to Iran (4500 km) or Turkey (5000 km) land locked Afghanistan now at the phase of Reconstruction, finds its ways through Pakistan.
Gawadar port with its deep waters attracts the trade ships of China, CARs and South East Asian Countries. ASEAN.
Economic significance:
SAARC, ECO. Iran is struggling to export its surplus gas and oil to eastern countries: Qatar Pakistan and Turkmenistan Pipeline projects highlights the position. Pakistan would get 400 million dollar annually if IPT gets success. Mountain Ranges: Himalayas, Hindu Kush in the North are plentiful in providing water and natural resources.
