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IMPACT OF THE CNB'S EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT: PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION

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IMPACT OF THE CNB'S EXCHANGE RATE COMMITMENT:

PASS-THROUGH TO INFLATION

Vladimir Tomsik

Vice-governor of the Czech National Bank

BIS Emerging Market Deputy Governors Meeting

Basel, January 28-29, 2016

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Outline

• CNB’s exchange rate commitment as a monetary policy tool at the zero interest rate bound

• Exchange rate dynamics under the commitment

• Pass-through of the commitment

• Observed price level differential

• Summary

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Exchange rate commitment

• In 2012 - 2013, the Czech economy was going through the longest recession in its history (impact of the weakening foreign demand and proceeding domestic fiscal consolidation):

decline of GDP (mainly due to falling consumption and investment)

increasing unemployment rate

decreasing real wages

weak consumer and business confidence

• Inflation decreased to the lower boundary of the tolerance band around the CNB’s 2% target and it was expected to fall to (or even below) zero.

Standard monetary policy tools reached their limits:

interest rates at technical zero forward guidance

verbal FX interventions

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Exchange rate commitment

• To avoid deflation or long-term undershooting of the inflation target

the Bank Board decided to start using the exchange rate as an additional instrument for easing the monetary conditions in November 2013:

”The CNB will intervene on the FX market to weaken the koruna so that the exchange rate is close to CZK 27/EUR.“

• The exchange rate commitment is one-sided:

CNB will prevent excessive appreciation of the koruna exchange rate below CZK 27/EUR.

On the weaker side of the CZK 27/EUR level, the CNB is allowing the exchange rate to move according to supply and demand on the FX market.

• The CNB stands ready to intervene automatically, i.e. without the need for an additional decision of the Bank Board, and without any time or volume limits.

• Forward guidance – the commitment will not end up earlier than 2016H2

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Outline

• CNB’s exchange rate commitment as a monetary policy tool at the zero interest rate bound

• Exchange rate dynamics under the commitment

• Pass-through of the commitment

• Observed price level differential

• Summary

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The exchange rate since the decision

• Announcement effect: After the CNB’s policy announcement, koruna reached 27 CZK/EUR quickly, and has been moving at somewhat weaker levels since then.

• Actual interventions only within few days after the policy decision of the

CNB. Further interventions in 2015H2. 6

CZK/EUR rate, CNB commitment and FX interventions

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Outline

• CNB’s exchange rate commitment as a monetary policy tool at the zero interest rate bound

• Exchange rate dynamics under the commitment

• Pass-through of the commitment

• Observed price level differential

• Summary

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Pass-through of the commitment

Nominal ER depreciation → Real ER depreciation as nominal ER appreciation has been prevented.

Positive inflation differential due to:

• Higher import prices.

• Higher price of domestically produced goods due to demand pressures stemming from substitution of foreign imported goods by cheaper

domestic alternatives.

• Boosted koruna profits of exporting firms with consequent upward pressures on wages.

Expected future inflation due to all the above

=> easing of monetary policy.

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Pass-through of the commitment

Estimated pass-through:

Following CNB (2014), 5% depreciation should lead to 1.6% increase of prices in the Czech economy ceteris paribus.

• The estimate consistent with the literature on pass-through in a small open economy as for example Goldberg and Campa (2010).

The pass-trough is partial due to:

Non-tradable prices as services (sticky prices).

Exporters import for exports (import intensity of export), bringing a natural hedging.

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Outline

• CNB’s exchange rate commitment as a monetary policy tool at the zero interest rate bound

• Exchange rate dynamics under the commitment

• Pass-through of the commitment

• Observed price level differential

• Summary

10

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Observed price level differential From November 2013 to October 2015

Which is a lower differential than expected:

 Is the pass-through lower? Is the commitment ineffective?

NOT NECESSARILY!

• We need to check for an initial over-appreciation, shocks with asymmetric effects, business cycle factors, etc.

• The pass-through might not be finished yet and it might be affected by the expected duration of the commitment.

PPI more suitable than CPI in the transmission channel as it is not affected by tax changes and regulated prices (examples: CZE

health care fees, GER Renewable Energies Act). 11

CPI PPI

Czech Republic 1.1 -2.0

Euro area 0.6 -2.8

Wedge 0.5 0.8

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I. Initial over-appreciation

• Several estimates points to initial over-appreciation around 1—3 %:

CNB(2015) estimates of BEER and FEER real exchange rates, IMF(2014) based on the External Balance Methodology, and filtration using HP filter.

• If the koruna was overvalued, a part of the NER depreciation could be

“used up” by this re-alignment.

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CZK/EUR real equilibrium exchange rate (2000Q1 = 100; CNB calculation)

Source: CNB Inflation Report III/2015.

Note: Equilibrium estimates according to the BEER and FEER models deflated by the index of producer prices in manufacturing.

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II. Asymmetric effects of the oil price shock

• A more significant drop of energy and intermediate goods PPI compared to the euro area on the back the world oil prices drop.

• Similar effects might stem from the abolition of EU milk quotas and the ban on food imports to Russia.

Producer prices in the areas of energy and intermediate goods in the euro area and the Czech Republic

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III. Business cycle position

• Both economies suffered a negative output gap, nevertheless the Czech recession was markedly deeper.

• A faster recovery of the Czech economy.

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Estimated output gap

Source: IMF WEO database.

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Outline

• CNB’s exchange rate commitment as a monetary policy tool at the zero interest rate bound

• Exchange rate dynamics under the commitment

• Pass-through of the commitment

• Observed price level differential

• Summary

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Conclusions

• In November 2013, the CNB introduced an exchange rate commitment in order to avoid long-term undershooting of the

inflation target and/or deflation risks on the back of the zero interest rate bound.

• After 2 years of the commitment the differential between Czech and effective euro area price levels is about 0.5 and 0.8 percentage

points.

Major factors hindering the effects of depreciation:

Initial over-appreciation

Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks

More severe recession of the Czech economy

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Thank you for your attention

Vladimir Tomsik Vice-governor Czech National Bank vladimir.tomsik@cnb.cz

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