ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 1
Performance review for Q3, FY2012
The Indian road sector continued to face multiple challenges in the third quarter (Q3) of the fiscal year 2011-12 (FY2012) in the form of high interest rates, reduced availability of funds, execution slowdown, and increased competitive intensity. The award of new projects picked up during the last two quarters with the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) awarding some mega projects. However, execution on many of the projects awarded over the last one year remained slow primarily because of delays in land acquisition, clearances, and financial closure. Projects that had the requisite approvals and funding reported healthy execution.
While both developers and contractors1 are going through a rough phase over the last one and a half years, the challenges were higher in the case of companies that had recently entered the project development space. While developers with a portfolio of operational toll road projects were partly hedged from high interest rates due to inflation-linked toll rates, those with projects in the developmental phase faced challenges in achieving financial closure due to weakened project viability owing to high interest rates besides delays in land acquisition and approvals.
Road construction companies continued to face long working capital cycles, which put a strain on their liquidity position and increased their indebtedness. The operating margins of several road contractors also witnessed pressure because of rising commodity prices (for fixed-price contracts) and idling of capacities as execution could not begin in many new projects.
With NHAI increasingly awarding projects under the public-private partnership (PPP) model, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contractors have struggled to maintain their order-book growth and many have chosen to enter the PPP space by undertaking projects on build-operate-transfer (BOT) basis. The equity requirement for BOT projects, along with the weak capital markets that have made raising capital difficult, has increased their dependence on external borrowings. Further, many of these companies have raised debt at the parent or holding company level to meet the equity requirement in BOT projects thus significantly increasing the indebtedness at the group level.
The slowdown in a few segments of the construction industry like irrigation and power, and the entry of new players has had the effect of raising the competitive intensity in the road sector. Consequently, despite the pickup in order inflow, many projects saw aggressive bidding during the first half (H1) of FY2012. However, with many developers facing difficulty in raising funds, some moderation in bidding activity was witnessed in Q3, FY2012. ICRA believes that with the pipeline of road projects to be awarded by NHAI and State governments remaining strong, there will be ample growth opportunities for both developers and contractors in the next 2-3 years. Also, key policy initiatives such as creation of Infrastructure Debt Funds and the catalysing role played by India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) will assume greater importance in channelising the much needed long-term debt funds into this sector.
1
Private players in the road sector can be broadly classified into developers (who build-operate-maintain road stretches under public-private partnerships) and contractors (who do the construction for government agencies or other private players on a contractual basis).
Corporate Ratings
Anjan Deb Ghosh +91 22 3047 0006 [email protected] Contacts: Rohit Inamdar +91 124 4545 847 [email protected] Shubham Jain +91 124 4545 306 [email protected] Abhishek Gupta +91 124 4545 863 [email protected]INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 2
Emerging Trends in Road Sector
Surge in projects awarded by NHAI; projects to be offered make a strong pipeline
There has been a surge in project awards by NHAI during the last few years. About 4,375 km has been awarded in first 9-months of FY2012, as against 4,553 km during FY2011, 3,338 km during FY2010 and 643 km in FY2009. There has been a period of slowdown in between, but the award activity has picked up in recent months with about 1,898 km of projects awarded in Q3, FY2012. Project award is expected to remain robust over the next few years, given the number of projects in the pipeline. Under the National Highway Development Project (NHDP) itself, NHAI plans to award about 24,000 km of highway projects over the next few years. Further, many State governments have now started looking at the PPP route for awarding road projects.
Recently, NHAI awarded some large road projects, including mega highway projects (over 400 km in length). Over the years, the size of projects awarded by the authority has increased, both in terms of length and project cost.
Contractors evolving into developers
Given the large number of projects being awarded on PPP basis, EPC contractors are increasingly assuming the role of developers by taking up BOT projects through the special purpose vehicle (SPV) route. While an EPC contractor is exposed to execution risk, the risks involved in a BOT project also include funding and operational/market risks. Further, the upfront equity investment required for a BOT project is higher, which along with the longer gestation, increases the funding requirement for these players. In the case of a BOT-toll project, developers are also exposed to uncertainty associated with traffic projections. On the positive side, returns in a successful BOT project are also generally higher. BOT projects are usually developed through an SPV, which de-risks the parent company from any major project risk. Nevertheless, proper risk assessment and management are critical for these companies as they take up more BOT projects. In some cases, developers have raised debt at the parent or holding company level to infuse equity into the project SPV, which has led to multiple leveraging.
Trend in Projects Awarded by NHAI
Source: NHAI, ICRA research Projects Awarded by NHAI
Source: NHAI, ICRA research
Share of BOT Projects in NHDP
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 3
Intense competition leads to aggressive bidding
The competitive intensity in the road sector has increased during the past one year following the entry of many new players. Traditionally, road construction was the least preferred among the larger construction players because of the low margins involved. However, many of these players have now started participating in road sector projects because of the slow order inflows in other segments.
Over 90 players have pre-qualified for the NHAI projects indicating highly competitive scenario prevailing in the sector. Many of the projects awarded in past few months have received more than 10 bids with large variations in the top bids; also, majority of these bids were significantly higher than NHAI’s expectation. The variation in bids is likely to be because of differences in traffic estimates and traffic growth projections for various players. However, recently there has been some moderation in the practice of aggressive bidding, probably because of the prevailing macroeconomic scenario that has made raising funds difficult.
Bidding Pattern in Some Projects Awarded since April 2011
Name of Project Month of Award Net Present Value
(NPV) of Projected Premium or Grant* Rs. crore NPV of L1’s Premium/(Grant) Rs. crore Diff. between NPV Expected and Bid Received
No. of Bidders Variation between L1 and L2 Ahmedabad-Vadodra Apr 2011 63 3542 5529% 13 62% Kota-Jhalawar Apr 2011 -228 30 113% 9 3% Beawar-Pali-Pindwara May 2011 194 2032 946% 16 12% Nagpur-Wainganga May 2011 -102 191 286% 19 60%
Barwa Adda-Panagarh May 2011 57 1098 1827% 9 56%
Jabalpur-Lakhnadon July 2011 134 -37 72% 6 83%
Hospet-Bellary-AP/KNT Border Aug 2011 -337 165 149% 10 119%
Aurang-Orissa Border Aug 2011 -382 265 169% 10 44%
Jabalpur-Katni-Rewa Aug 2011 -917 -341 63% 4 10% Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad Sep 2011 3035 7389 143% 7 23% Shivpuri-Dewas Sep 2011 -422 1658 493% 14 65% Gwalior-Shivpuri Sep 2011 -331 602 282% 15 24% Vijayawada-Machilipatnam Oct 2011 -173 -209 -21% 3 1% Rohtak-Jind Nov 2011 -113 1 101% 5 101% Patna-Buxar Nov 2011 -395 -316 20% 1 0% Angul-Sambalpur Dec 2011 -476 -339 29% 7 6%
*Negative figures represent grant
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 4
Financing options to increase with the launch of infrastructure debt fund and take-out financing
With more and more road projects being awarded on PPP basis, the financing requirement for private players is also increasing. Already, bank lending to the road sector has grown 200% during the last three years to stand at about Rs. 1 trillion (2.4% of total bank loans) now. As road projects have a long gestation (concession period of 15-30 years), a developer would want longer tenure debt funds so as to match the duration of the concession period; however, banks are reluctant to lend for such a long duration because its own assets and liabilities mismatch.
The Central Government has taken several initiatives to improve the availability of financing for the infrastructure sector by creating the infrastructure debt fund, and also by increasing the limit of FII investments in infrastructure debt funds (from US$5 billion to US$25 billion) in the last union budget.
The Government had launched a take-out financing scheme in October 2010, under which India Infrastructure Finance Company Ltd (IIFCL) can take out debt up to 20% of the Total Project Cost after the commercial operation date (COD) has been achieved for the project. Subsequently, this limit was increased to 50% by way of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between IIFCL, LIC and IDFC wherein it was agreed to refinance the debt in the ratio of 20:20:10 respectively. Takeout financing frees up banks’ capital, which they can use to lend to new projects and also avoid asset-liability mismatches.
Further, IIFCL launched a credit enhancement scheme under which IIFCL will provide guarantee to the extent of 50 per cent of the debt availed by an operational infrastructure project. Asian Development Bank (ADB) will further re-insure 50 per cent of the guarantee given by IIFCL to infrastructure companies thus raising the credit rating of the project and consequently improving the marketability of the debt/bonds issued by the project company.
These initiatives are expected to help the developers in obtaining low-cost financing for road projects. However, with many players bidding aggressively, lenders are turning increasingly cautious.
Duration of high interest rate regime a concern
While funding has so far not been a major problem for road projects, the cost of funding becomes a concern if interest rates remain at higher levels for a longer duration. Given that road projects are highly leveraged, their sensitivity to interest rates is high and persistently elevated rates can dampen project viability.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 5
Performance Overview of Some Listed Companies in Road Sector
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 6
IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited (ITNL)
Bloomberg Code ILFT@INBSE Code 533177 BSE Group B
NSE Symbol IL&FSTRANS
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 71.2% Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) 2.8% Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) 4.0% Others 22.0%Market Data (Feb 20, 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 209 Market Cap Rs. 4,061 crore 1 year High/Low Rs. 256/143Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 10 Book Value Rs. 115.3 EPS (TTM) Rs. 24.6 P/E (TTM) 8.5Price Performance
3Months 12Months ITNL 16.2% -4.9% SENSEX 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE
Amounts in Rs. crore Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 1268.4 733.7 1255.5
Change (%) 72.9% 1.0%
OPBDIT 320.7 220.72 356.67
Less: Depreciation 16.9 15.8 16.0 Less: Interest Charges 185.5 115.3 169.4 Non-Operating Income 29.7 17.4 26.2 PBT 148.1 107.0 197.5 Less: Tax 46.9 44.8 65.2 PAT 101.2 62.2 132.4 OPBDIT/OI (%) 25.3% 30.1% 28.4% PAT/OI (%) 8.0% 8.5% 10.5%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
ITNL’s Consolidated Key Financial Indicators
Amounts in Rs. Crore Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012 Operating Income 776.1 883.3 733.7 1655.8 1093.1 1255.5 1268.4 Growth (%) 13.8% -16.9% 125.7% -34.0% 14.9% 1.0% OPBDIT 261.5 261.5 220.7 411.2 331.2 356.7 320.7 PAT 106.0 111.2 62.2 170.3 118.5 132.4 101.2 OPBDIT/OI (%) 33.7% 29.6% 30.1% 24.8% 30.3% 28.4% 25.3% PAT/OI (%) 13.7% 12.6% 8.5% 10.3% 10.8% 10.5% 8.0% Source: Company data, ICRA estimates
ITNL Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 2000 Promoter Group IL&FS
Major Subsectors Roads, Metro Rail, Border Check Post Order Book Rs. 10,000 crore
BOT Projects 21 projects with 10,343 lane km Operational BOT Projects 10 projects
Revenues FY11 Rs. 4,049 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 433 crore Net Worth FY2011 Rs. 2,239 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: ITNL’s operating income grew 72.9% year-on-year (YoY) in Q3, FY2012 to Rs. 1,268 crore, driven primarily by strong growth in construction/EPC revenues (up 125% to Rs. 905 crore in Q3, FY2012 from Rs. 403 crore in Q3, FY2011) because of increased construction execution in its ongoing projects especially Jharkhand projects.
Revenues from BOT projects during the quarter also reported strong growth (up 69% YoY) because of a combination of increase in toll rates, and higher traffic. However, revenue from its European subsidiary Elsamex S.A. continued to decline during the quarter (de-growth of 23%) because of non-renewal of some contracts in regions including the Dominican Republic.
Profitability: ITNL’s operating margins at 25.3% dropped by 480 basis points (bps) on YoY basis in Q3, FY2012 primarily because of exceptional expenses/provisions and higher share of operating income from the lower-margin construction business. The decline in net profit margins was higher because of a significant increase in interest expenses on account of both higher debt and interest rate.
Increase in Debt-Equity ratio: ITNL’s debt-equity ratio increased sharply in Q3, FY2012 to 3.49 times from 2.68 at the end of Q2, FY2012. The increase in debt levels was primarily due to acquisition of a Chinese toll project – Chongqing YuHe Expressway and disbursement of loans for the on-going projects.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 7
IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited (ITNL): Business Overview
Incorporated in 2000, ITNL has been promoted by Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Limited (IL&FS). It is the market leader in the road infrastructure space with the largest BOT portfolio of about 10,343 lane km in 21 projects across 14 States. Apart from road development, ITNL is also into areas like metro rails, border check posts and bus transportation systems, which serve to diversify its revenue streams.
Table: BOT Projects of ITNL
Project Type Lane km ITNL’s
Share
Project Cost
Operational Projects
Belgaum-Maharashtra Border Annuity 472 94% 600 Thiruvananthapuram Phase 1 Annuity 51 50% 110 Kotakatta bypass - Kurnool Annuity 328 100% 863 Gujarat Toll
(Ahmedabad-Mehasana, Vadodara-Halol)
Toll 523 84% 466
Noida Toll Bridge Toll 60 25% 589
RIDCOR, Phase 1 Toll 2,106 50% 1,618
Rajkot-Jetpur Toll 389 100% 276
Hyderabad Outer Ring Road Annuity 152 26% 399
Beawar-Gomti Toll 248 100% 355
Total Operational 4,329 5,276
Projects under development
Jharkhand Ph 1 Annuity 466 100% 1,408
Chhattisgarh -1,2,3 Annuity 1,368 74% 2,347
Thiruvananthapuram Phase 2,3 Annuity 107 50% 263
East Hyderabad Exp. Ltd Annuity 173 74% 428
Hazaribagh Ranchi Annuity 319 74% 869
RIDCOR, Ph 2 Toll 698 50% 813
Warora Chandrapur Toll 275 35% 700
Pune Sholapur Toll 571 100% 1,403
Moradabad Bareilly Toll 522 100% 1,984
Narketpalli Addanki Toll 888 50% 1,760
Jorbat Shillong Annuity 262 50% 824
Chenani Nashri Annuity 38 100% 3,720
Kiratpur-Ner Chowk Toll 327 100% 1,818
Total Under Development 6,014 18,337
Grand Total 10,343 23,613
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Update on Operations
New Orders Inflows: Order inflow during Q3, FY2012 remained subdued as no new NHAI order was won by the company primarily because of the aggressive bidding witnessed in many projects. However, in January 2012, ITNL has won a sizeable order (Rs. 1,818 crore) from NHAI for development of Kiratpur to Ner-Chowk (Himachal Pradesh) on BOT—Toll basis. ITNL’s current order book is strong at around Rs. 10,000 crore, a major part of which would be executed in the next three years.
Toll Collection: The average toll collection in the six operational toll-based projects reported healthy YoY growth in Q3, FY2012 because of a combination of growth in traffic and increase in user fees.
Avg. Daily Toll Collection* Q3,
FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Growth (%) Q2, FY2012 Growth (%) Ahmedabad-Mehsana 0.161 0.131 23% 0.161 0% Vadodara-Halol 0.130 0.109 19% 0.121 7%
Noida Toll Bridge 0.217 0.186 17% 0.197 10%
RIDCOR, Phase 1 0.436 0.303 44% 0.399 9%
Rajkot-Jetpur 0.109 0.097 12% 0.099 10%
Beawer-Gomti 0.048 0.042 14% 0.046 4%
Source: Company Data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore * Not adjusted for ITNL’s stake
Annuity Receivable: ITNL has four operational annuity-based projects, a stable revenue stream for the company.
Accrued Annuity from operational projects* Q3, FY2012
Maharashtra Border to Belgaum 25.3
Thirvananthapuram City Roads (Phase 1) 3.0
Kotakatta bypass to Kurnool 28.3
Hyderabad Outer Ring Road 16.7
Total Annuity 73.1
Source: Company Data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore * Not adjusted for ITNL’s stake
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 8
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (IRB)
Bloomberg Code IRB@INBSE Code 532947 BSE Group A NSE Symbol IRB
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 67.55%
FIIs 17.37%
DIIs 6.53%
Others 8.55%
Market Data (Feb 20, 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 207.65 Market Cap Rs. 6,902 crore 52-W High/Low Rs. 230/121Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 10 Book Value Rs. 73.2 EPS (TTM) Rs. 14.4 P/E (TTM) 14.4Price Performance
3M 12M IRB 49.5% 12.9% SENSEX 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE
Amounts in Rs. crore Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 745.5 668.8 735.9
Change (%) 11.5% 1.3%
OPBDIT 341.7 293.6 321.5
Less: Depreciation 72.4 58.5 62.9 Less: Interest Charges 142.0 82.0 141.2 Non-Operating Income 33.8 11.7 30.1 PBT 161.1 164.8 147.5 Less: Tax 29.1 28.8 36.7 PAT 132.0 136.0 110.9 OPBDIT/OI (%) 45.8% 43.9% 43.7% PAT/OI (%) 17.7% 20.3% 15.1%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Table: IRB’s Consolidated Key Financial Indicators
Amounts in Rs. crore Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012
Operating Income 512.0 490.3 668.8 767.0 801.3 735.9 745.5 Growth (%) -4.2% 36.4% 14.7% 4.5% -8.2% 1.3% OPBDIT 249.3 236.4 293.6 314.7 329.4 321.5 341.7 PAT 120.8 101.8 136.0 105.5 135.7 110.9 132.0 OPBDIT/OI (%) 48.7% 48.2% 43.9% 41.0% 41.1% 43.7% 45.8% PAT/OI (%) 23.6% 20.8% 20.3% 13.7% 16.9% 15.1% 17.7% Source: Company data, ICRA estimates
IRB Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 1998
Promoter Group Mhaiskar Family
Major Subsectors Roads, Airport, Real Estate Order Book Rs. 9,128 crore
BOT Projects 17 projects with 5,777 lane km Operational BOT Projects 10 projects
Revenues FY2011 Rs. 2,438 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 452 crore Net Worth FY2011 Rs. 2,433 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: IRB’s operating income grew 11.5% YoY in Q3, FY2012 to Rs. 745.5 crore, driven primarily by healthy traction in construction execution in Jaipur-Deoli, Talegaon-Amravati, and Amritsar-Pathankot projects.
Revenues from BOT projects during the quarter also reported healthy growth (up 18.4% to Rs. 253.5 crore in Q3, FY2012 from Rs. 214.0 crore in Q3, FY2011) because of a combination of increase in toll rates, higher traffic and commencement of toll on new project.
Profitability: IRB’s operating margins at 45.8% improved by 194 bps YoY in Q3, FY2012 primarily because of improvement in construction business margins. However, higher interest and depreciation resulted in decline in net profit margins; the interest was higher because of both higher debt for on-going projects and higher interest rate.
New Orders Inflows: Order inflow during Q3, FY2012 remained subdued as no new NHAI order was won by the company primarily because of the aggressive bidding witnessed in these projects. While IRB’s order book is robust at Rs. 9,128 crore, a major part of this consists of operations and maintenance (O&M) projects (Rs. 2,058 crore) and projects that are yet to start (Rs. 3,678 crore). Thus, effectively only about Rs. 3,392 crore worth of projects are under execution. However, the Ahmedabad-Vadodara project has recently achieved financial closure and the execution is expected to enhance the revenue growth.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 9
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited (IRB): Business Overview
Incorporated in 1998, IRB has been promoted by the Mumbai-based Mhaiskar family and is a leading player in the road infrastructure space with one of the largest BOT portfolio of 5,777 lane km in 17 projects across the country. Apart from road development, IRB is also into other areas like airport and real estate development.
Table: BOT Projects of IRB
Project Length km Lane km Project
Cost
Operational
Thane Bhiwandi Bypass 24 96 104
Pune –Sholapur 26 104 63 Pune –Nashik 29.8 119 74 Mumbai –Pune 206 824 1,302 Thane –Ghodbunder 14.9 60 246 Bharuch –Surat 65 260 1,409 Ahmednagar–Tembhurni 60 240 37 Kharpada Bridge 1.4 6 32 Mohol- Mandrup 33.4 134 18 Surat –Dahisar 239 956 2,537 Total Operational 699.5 2,799 5,822 Under Development Tumkur –Chitradurga 114 456 1,142 Pathankot –Amritsar 102.4 410 1,445 Talegaon –Amravati 66.7 267 888 Jaipur –Deoli 146.3 585 1,733 Panaji –Goa 69.1 276 833 Kolhapur 50 200 500 Ahmedabad –Vadodara 196 784 4,880
Total Under Development 744.5 2,978 11,422
Grand Total 1,444 5,777 17,243
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Operational Update
Order Book Status and Execution: Execution of ongoing projects remained on track in Q3, FY2012 with major revenue derived from Jaipur Deoli Talegaon Amravati Amritsar Pathankot. The Surat-Dahisar project got completed during the quarter and Kolhapur project is nearing completion. The Goa-Karnataka project, which has been facing land acquisition related delays, has been removed from the order book. Toll Collections: The gross toll collection in operational projects reported robust YoY growth of 29.6% in Q3, FY2012 primarily led by higher toll collections in Mumbai—Pune, Surat-Dahisar projects and addition of toll collections from Tumkur—Chitradurga. Toll Collection Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Growth Q2, FY2012 Growth Thane Bhiwandi Bypass 15.9 13.8 15.2% 14.5 9.7%
Pune –Sholapur 4.2 3.5 20.0% 3.9 7.7% Pune –Nashik 5.8 5.5 5.5% 5.5 5.5% Mumbai –Pune 100.0 80.9 23.6% 99.7 0.3% Thane –Ghodbunder 7.5 7.3 2.7% 6.9 8.7% Bharuch –Surat 37.2 34.8 6.9% 34.7 7.2% Ahmednagar–Tembhurni 3.5 3.6 -2.8% 3.5 0.0% Kharpada Bridge 2.0 1.9 5.3% 1.9 5.3% Mohol- Mandrup 1.9 1.9 0.0% 1.9 0.0% Surat –Dahisar 106.3 95.5 11.3% 93.9 13.2% Tumkur –Chitradurga 38.0 38.7 -1.8% Total 322.3 248.7 29.6% 305.1 5.6%
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 10
IVRCL Limited (IVRCL)
Bloomberg Code IVRC@INBSE Code 530773 BSE Group B
NSE Symbol IVRCLINFRA
ICRA Ratings
Long Term [ICRA]A Short Term [ICRA]A1 Outlook Stable
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 11.18% FIIs 37.11% DIIs 5.4% Others 46.31%Market Data (Feb 20, 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 58.8 Market Cap Rs. 753 Cr 52-W High/Low Rs. 136/27Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 2 Book Value Rs. 101.7 EPS (TTM) Rs. 3.1 P/E (TTM) 18.8Price Performance
3M 12M IVRCL -83.6% -26.0% SENSEX 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 1202.5 1417.5 1046.1
Change (%) -15.2% 15.0%
OPBDIT 94.8 139.7 93.8
Less: Depreciation 22.9 19.1 25.0 Less: Interest Charges 66.1 59.2 65.2
Other Income 1.0 1.0 5.3 PBT 6.9 62.5 8.9 Less: Tax 0.1 20.2 0.7 PAT 6.8 42.3 8.1 OPBDIT/OI (%) 7.9% 9.9% 9.0% PAT/OI (%) 0.6% 3.0% 0.8%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore Table: IVRCL’s Standalone Key Financial Indicators
Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012 Operating Income 1106.8 1074.5 1417.5 2052.7 1124.3 1046.1 1202.5 Growth (%) -2.9% 31.9% 44.8% -45.2% -7.0% 15.0% OPBDIT 101.1 95.9 139.7 177.9 85.6 93.8 94.8 PAT 28.1 23.3 42.3 64.3 4.2 8.1 6.8 OPBDIT/OI (%) 9.1% 8.9% 9.9% 8.7% 7.6% 9.0% 7.9% PAT/OI (%) 2.5% 2.2% 3.0% 3.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6%
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore IVRCL Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 1987
CMD Mr. E. Sudhir Reddy
Major Subsectors Roads, Irrigation, Water, Real Estate Order Book Rs. 25,000 crore
BOT Projects 9 projects with total cost ~Rs. 9,342 cr Operational BOT Projects 4 projects
Revenues FY2011 Rs. 5,617 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 158 crore Net Worth FY2011 Rs. 1,987 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: IVRCL’s operating income continued to decline in Q3, FY2012 with the company reporting de-growth of 15.2% YoY for the quarter to Rs. 1,202 crore despite holding a large order book. The pace of execution was impacted by delays in the pickup of some projects on account of clearance and land acquisition related hurdles, besides slow execution.
Profitability: IVRCL’s operating margins declined by 198 bps to 7.9% in Q3, FY2012. Further, because of significant increase in interest cost on account of both higher debt and interest rates, its net profit margin declined to a meager 0.6% in Q3, FY2012 from 3.0% in Q3, FY2011. Merger of Asset Holding Subsidiary: IVRCL’s board has approved the merger of its subsidiary IVRCL Assets & Holding Limited (IAHL) with itself, and demerger of the tower manufacturing and real estate businesses into separate subsidiaries. IAHL is a listed company and IVRCL holds 75.7% equity stake in it. Under the share swap ratio, IAHL’s shareholders will receive five shares of IVRCL for every six of IAHL on the record date.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 11
IVRCL Limited (IVRCL): Business Overview
Incorporated in 1987, IVRCL is an engineering and construction company promoted by Mr. E. Sudheer Reddy. IVRCL has been executing projects in the road sector and in segments of the water sector including irrigation, desalination, and sewerage. The company has also undertaken projects on BOT basis for road and desalination works, and has interests in real estate projects as well.
Table: BOT Road Projects of IVRCL
Project Length km Project Cost IVRCL’s Stake Operational Jalandhar - Amritsar 49 343.6 100% Salem - Kumarapalayam 53.5 502.0 100% Kumarapalayam – Chenagmpalli 48.5 421.5 100% Total Operational 151.0 1,267.1 Under Development Sion - Panvel 25 1,450 51% Baramati - Phaltan 77.9 382 75% Chengapalli - Walayar 42 1,125 100% Indore - Gujarat 155 1,550 100% Mumbai-Goa 122 3,100 100% Karanji-Chandrapur 80 736 100%
Total under development 501.9 8,343
Grand Total 652.9 9,610
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Performance Update
Order Book and Execution: IVRCL’s order book stood at about Rs. 25,000 crore as on December 2011. The order book to revenue at 4.4 times is on the higher side and will require faster execution.
About 29% of IVRCL’s order book of Rs. 25,000 crore is accounted for by the road sector. The rest is spread across water and irrigation (37%), power (7%), building and industrial (21%), and oil & gas and mining (5%). IVRCL currently has a portfolio of nine BOT projects, of which seven are in the road sector.
Revenues from Operational BOT Projects: Revenue collections from three operational road BOT projects—Kumarapalyam-Chenagmpalli, Jalandhar-Amritsar and the Salem-Kumarapalyam tollway project—are in the range of Rs. 0.3 crore per day. There has not been any significant growth in the toll revenues from previous quarter.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 12
Ashoka Buildcon Limited (ABL)
Bloomberg Code ASBL@INBSE Code 533271 BSE Group B NSE Symbol ASHOKA
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 67.23%
FIIs 1.3%
DIIs 17.23%
Others 14.24%
Market Data (Feb 20, 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 209 Market Cap Rs. 1,099 crore 52-W High/Low Rs. 308/180Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 10 Book Value Rs. 167.6Price Performance
3M 12M ABL -12.7% -21.4% SENSEX 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 352.9 236.4 286.5
Change (%) 49.3% 23.2%
OPBDIT 69.2 56.5 66.9
Less: Depreciation 29.0 24.3 27.9 Less: Interest Charges 27.3 16.0 24.6
Other Income 13.8 11.2 5.2 PBT 26.6 27.4 19.5 Less: Tax 11.2 11.0 4.5 PAT 15.4 16.4 15.0 OPBDIT/OI (%) 19.6% 23.9% 23.3% PAT/OI (%) 4.4% 6.9% 5.2%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore ABL Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 1993
Promoter Mr. Ashok M. Katariya Major Subsectors Roads, Power T&D Order Book Rs. 4,312 crore
BOT Projects 18 projects with 4,766 lane km Operational BOT Projects 11 projects
Revenues FY2011 Rs. 1,302 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 210 crore Net Worth Mar 2011 Rs. 893 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: ABL’s operating income increased from Rs. 236.4 crore in Q3, FY2011 to Rs. 352.9 crore in Q3, FY2012. The operating income is not comparable because of two changes in accounting policy that the company made in Q4, FY2012. Since Q4, FY2011, ABL has not eliminated the EPC revenue derived from its BOT SPVs. Further, the accounting method of amortization of intangible assets has been changed from straight line to proportion of traffic volumes. On QoQ basis, ABL’s operating income grew by 23.2% in Q3, FY2012.
ABL’s revenues from BOT projects increased from Rs. 50.96 crore in Q3, FY2011 to Rs. 66.28 crore in Q3, FY2012.
Profitability: ABL’s operating margins during Q3, FY2012 stood at 19.6%. The operating profitability was lower primarily on account of major maintenance expenditure incurred in one of its BOT project (Indore- Edalabad).
Table: ABL’s Key Financial Indicators
Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012 Operating Income 279.7 182.8 236.4 603.2 388.4 286.5 352.9 Growth (%) -34.6% 29.4% 155.1% -35.6% -26.2% 23.2% OPBDIT 67.6 48.6 56.5 76.8 91.2 66.9 69.2 PAT 30.6 19.3 16.4 144.1 30.9 15.0 15.4 OPBDIT/OI (%) 24.2% 26.6% 23.9% 12.7% 23.5% 23.3% 19.6% PAT/OI (%) 10.9% 10.6% 6.9% 23.9% 8.0% 5.2% 4.4% Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 13
Ashoka Buildcon Limited (ABL): Business Overview
Incorporated in 1993, ABL is a Nashik (Maharashtra)-based infrastructure company with focus on road projects. Prior to the company’s incorporation, its promoters were into civil construction. In 1997, ABL entered the business of developing toll roads and bridges on BOT basis.
Table: BOT Road Projects of ABL
Project Lane km ABL’s
Stake Project Cost Operational Projects Chhattisgarh - Bhandara 376.8 51.0% 535 Indore - Edalabad 406.6 100.0% 165 Waiganga Bridge 26.0 50.0% 41 Pune - Shirur 216.0 100.0% 161 Dewas Bypass 39.6 100.0% 61 Katni Bypass 35.2 99.9% 71 Nagar - Karmala 160.0 100.0% 50 Nagar - Aurangabad 168.0 100.0% 103 Nasirabad ROB 8.0 100.0% 15 Sherinallah Bridge 7.0 100.0% 14 Dhule Bypass 11.8 100.0% 6 Operational Projects 1,455 1,222
Projects under Development
Dhankuni - Kharagpur 841.0 100.0% 2,200 Sambhalpur - Baragarh 407.6 100.0% 1,142 Belgaum - Dharwad 454.1 100.0% 694 Jaora - Nayagaon 340.2 37.5% 835 Pimpalgaon-Nasik-Gonde 451.9 26.0% 1,691 Durg - Chhattisgarh 368.2 51.0% 587 Cuttak-Angul 448 100% 1,100
Total Under Development 3,311 8,249
Grand Total 4,766 9,471
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Performance Update
BOT Project Portfolio: ABL has portfolio of eighteen BOT roads and BOT bridge projects, of which eleven are operational and seven are under various stages of development. While the projects under development are fewer in number than the operational projects, the size of these projects is larger. However, two of the ongoing projects—Jaora-Nayagaon and Durg-Chhattisgarh—are nearing completion (~100% work done), and once completed will make the portfolio of operational projects stronger.
Order Book and Execution: The size of the EPC order book of ABL is around Rs. 4,312 crore, most of which (~85%) is from its own road projects. Project execution remained subdued during Q3, FY2012 because of delays in getting clearances and achieving financial closure. Toll Collections: All the BOT projects of ABL are on toll basis, and toll collection has reported healthy growth in most projects. Collections from Pune-Shirur have however suffered following discontinuation of one toll plaza in Q3-Q4, FY2011.
The gross toll collections jumped by 70.5% due to inclusion of new tolls.
Toll Collection Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Growth Q2, FY2012 Growth Indore -Edalabad 16.36 14.65 11.7% 15.52 5.4% Ahmednagar -Aurangabad 4.02 4.26 -5.6% 4.16 -3.4% Wainganga Bridge 5.68 4.74 19.8% 5.03 12.9% Dewas Bypass 4.75 4.51 5.3% 4.83 -1.7% Katni Bypass 4.58 4.21 8.8% 4.62 -0.9% Pune - Shirur 5.42 5.9 -8.1% 4.73 14.6% Nagar - Karmala 6.25 3.34 87.1% 6.32 -1.1% Jaora-Nayagaon 16.27 3.91 316.1% 15.61 4.2% Chhattisgarh - Bhandara 11.97 8.2 46.0% 10.48 14.2% Belgaum - Dharwad 12.73 13.18 -3.4% Others 11.62 4.72 146.2% 1.12 937.5% Total 99.65 58.44 70.5% 85.6 16.4%
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 14
Madhucon Projects Limited (MPL)
Bloomberg Code MDHPJ@INBSE Code 531497 BSE Group B
NSE Symbol MADHUCON
ICRA Ratings
Long Term [ICRA]A+ Short Term [ICRA]A1 Outlook Stable
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 57.8% FIIs 9.21% DIIs 12.42% Others 20.57%Market Data (Feb 20, 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 71.3 Market Cap Rs. 526 crore 52-W High/Low Rs. 112/46Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 1 Book Value Rs. 91.3 EPS (TTM) Rs. 5.5 P/E (TTM) 12.9Price Performance
3M 12M MPL 39.5% -35.1% SENSEX 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 624.9 352.1 416.0
Change (%) 77.5% 50.2%
OPBDIT 52.7 44.8 54.0
Less: Depreciation 11.9 11.9 12.7 Less: Interest Charges 29.8 15.4 31.8 Non-Operating Income 1.6 0.9 1.0 PBT 12.5 18.4 10.4 Less: Tax 5.0 6.9 4.4 PAT 7.5 11.5 6.0 OPBDIT/OI (%) 8.4% 12.7% 13.0% PAT/OI (%) 1.2% 3.3% 1.5%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore Table: MPL’s Key Financial Indicators
Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012 Operating Income 407.4 351.6 352.1 593.4 329.2 416.0 624.9 Growth (%) -13.7% 0.1% 68.5% -44.5% 26.4% 50.2% OPBDIT 43.5 34.1 44.8 62.6 46.3 54.0 52.7 PAT 13.5 6.7 11.5 19.3 8.0 6.0 7.5 OPBDIT/OI (%) 10.7% 9.7% 12.7% 10.6% 14.1% 13.0% 8.4% PAT/OI (%) 3.3% 1.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.4% 1.5% 1.2%
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore MPL Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 1990
Promoter Mr. N. Nageswara Rao Major Subsectors Roads, Irrigation, Mining Order Book Rs. 6,870 crore
BOT Projects 8 projects Operational BOT Projects 4 projects Revenues FY2011 Rs. 1,713 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 32 crore Net Worth FY2011 Rs. 609 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: MPL’s operating income grew 77.5% YoY in Q3, FY2012 to Rs. 624.9 crore from Rs. 352.1 crore in Q3, FY2011, driven mainly by the better execution of power projects. The share of road projects in the operating income of MPL stood at 19% in Q3, FY2012. Profitability: MPL’s operating margins declined to 8.4% in Q3, FY2012 from 12.7% in Q3, FY2011. Further, because of the increase in interest cost on account of both higher debt and interest rate, the net profit margin declined to a low 1.2% in Q3, FY2012
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 15
Madhucon Projects Limited (MPL): Business Overview
Incorporated in 1990, MPL is a Hyderabad (Andhra Pradesh)-based construction and infrastructure company, with focus on roads and irrigation projects. It has also undertaken projects in other sectors such as power, mining, and real estate.
Table: BOT Road Projects of MPL
Project Length km Project Cost Type Operational Bharatpur-Mahua 58 340 Toll DK Expressway 73 370 Toll Trichy-Thanjavur 57 390 Toll Madurai-Tuticorin 129 920 Toll Total Operational 317 2,020 Under Development Chhapra-Hazipur 65 813 Annuity Barasat-Krishnagar 84 980 Annuity Ranchi-Jamshedpur 164 1655 Annuity Vijayawada-Machilipatnam 63 730 Toll
Total under development 376 4,178
Grand Total 693 6,198
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Performance Update
Order Book and Execution: MPL’s order book, as of Q3, FY2012, stood at Rs. 6,870 crore (4x FY2011 revenue), and was dominated by the roads (55.0%) and irrigation (23.0%) segments, with the contribution of the power, real estate, mining and other segments being smaller. MPL’s BOT portfolio in the road sector has eight projects, of which four are operational. The BOT portfolio covers a length of 693 km and has a mix of toll and annuity projects.
The execution of road projects remained subdued during Q3, FY2012 because of issues related to land acquisition, clearances and financial closure. Financial closure for the Barasat-Krishnagar and Ranchi-Jamshedpur projects was achieved during the quarter. Revenues from Operational BOT Projects: The total toll collections in the four operational BOT projects of MPL were in the range of Rs. 0.45 crore per day during Q3, FY2012.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 16
Sadbhav Engineering Limited (SEL)
Bloomberg Code SADE@INBSE Code 532710 BSE Group B
NSE Symbol SADBHAV
Shareholding Pattern
Promoters 47.46%
FIIs 20.46%
DIIs 18.52%
Others 13.56%
Market Data (20 Feb 2012)
Latest Price Rs. 143.9 Market Cap Rs. 2,163 crore 52-W High/Low Rs. 156/94Stock Data
Face Value Rs. 1 Book Value Rs. 57.9 EPS (TTM) Rs. 9.8 P/E (TTM) 14.6Price Performance
3M 12M SEL -24.4% -16.5% Sensex 11.7% -1.2%Stock Movement
Source: Bloomberg, BSE, NSE Q3, FY2012 Q3, FY2011 Q2, FY2012
Operating Income 723.7 476.2 430.4
Change (%) 52.0% 68.1%
OPBDIT 75.2 52.9 45.3
Less: Depreciation 6.9 6.8 7.0
Less: Interest Charges 10.6 9.7 15.4 Non-Operating Income 4.6 4.3 5.2 PBT 62.4 40.6 28.1 Less: Tax 20.6 14.2 10.0 PAT 41.7 26.4 18.1 OPBDIT/OI (%) 10.4% 11.1% 10.5% PAT/OI (%) 5.8% 5.5% 4.2%
S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore Table: SEL’s Key Financial Indicators
Q1, FY2011 Q2, FY2011 Q3, FY2011 Q4, FY2011 Q1, FY2012 Q2, FY2012 Q3, FY2012 Operating Income 425.3 260.9 476.2 1046.7 612.9 430.4 723.7 Growth (%) -38.7% 82.5% 119.8% -41.4% -29.8% 68.1% OPBDIT 50.7 31.4 52.9 90.8 67.8 45.3 75.2 PAT 25.5 13.7 26.4 53.9 33.8 18.1 41.7 OPBDIT/OI (%) 11.9% 12.0% 11.1% 8.7% 11.1% 10.5% 10.4% PAT/OI (%) 6.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 5.5% 4.2% 5.8%
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore SEL Fact Sheet
Year of Incorporation 1988
Promoter Mr. Vishnubhai M Patel Major Subsectors Roads, Irrigation Order Book Rs. 5,940 crore
BOT Projects 9
Operational BOT Projects 4
Revenues FY2011 Rs. 2,209 crore PAT FY2011 Rs. 119.6 crore Net Worth FY2011 Rs. 625.7 crore S ource: Company data, ICRA estimates
Operating Income: SEL’s operating income reported a sharp 52% YoY growth in Q3, FY2012 to Rs. 723.7 crore on the strength of faster execution of road projects. Road projects contributed about 90% to the total operating income.
Profitability: SEL’s operating margins declined marginally from 11.1% in Q3, FY2011 to 10.4% in Q3, FY2012. The net profit margin increased to 5.8% in Q3, FY2012. The interest expenses reduced QoQ due to lower working capital borrowings.
New Orders Inflows: Order inflow during Q3, FY2012 remained weak with the company winning only one mining project of Rs. 325 crore. The order book stood at Rs. 5,940 crore as of December 2011.
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 17
Sadbhav Engineering Limited (SEL): Business Overview
Incorporated in 1988, SEL is a construction and infrastructure company with focus on roads and irrigation projects. Till March 2011, it had successfully completed 20 road & highway projects, 21 irrigation projects, and 5 mining projects. The 20 road projects completed correspond to around 3,738 lane km of national and state highways.
Table: BOT Road Projects of SEL
Project SEL’s stake Lane km Project Cost Type Operational
Mumbai Nashik Expressway 20% 398 790.1 Toll
Ahmedabad Ring Road 80% 304 500.8 Toll
Aurangabad Jalna Tollway 51% 276 277.0 Toll Nagpur Seoni Expressway 51% 226 489.7 Annuity
Total Operational 1,204 2057.6
Under Development
Maharashtra Border Check Post 90% 422 1,426.4 Fees Dhule Palesner Tollway 27% 392 1,420.0 Toll Hyderabad Yadgiri Tollway 60% 143 480.2 Toll Rohtak Panipat Tollway 100% 323 1,213.4 Toll Bijapur Hungund Tollway 77% 389 1,257.1 Toll
Total under development 1,669 5,797.1
Grand Total 2,873 7,854.7
Source: Company data, ICRA estimates; Amounts in Rs. crore
Performance Update
Order Book and Execution: SEL’s order book is spread across the road (66.3%), irrigation, and mining segments. Execution of road projects remained healthy during Q3, FY2012 with many projects running ahead f schedule.
Revenues from Operational BOT Projects: SEL has nine BOT road projects. Of these, eight are toll-based BOT projects, while one is based on the annuity model (Nagpur Seoni Expressway). The annuity project is partly complete as of date. The Dhule Palesner project received partial COD (68.3 km out of 96 km stretch).
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 18
Annexure
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 19
Background
The Indian road network consisting of national highways, State highways, major district roads, and urban and rural roads is one of the largest in the world with a cumulative stretch of about 3.3 million km. The network carries 65% of the country’s freight and 80% of its passenger traffic. National highways/expressways, which comprise about 2% of the total road length, carry about 40% of the total road traffic. On their part, State highways and major district roads, which together account for about 13% of the total road length, carry another 40% of the total road traffic.
Currently, about 27% of the national highway stretch is single/intermediate lane, while about 54% is double lane. The capacity of the highways is increasingly becoming a constraint, given the rapid growth in the number of vehicles (compounded annual growth rate, or CAGR, of more than 8% over the last five years). Given the scenario, the Indian Government has taken many initiatives to improve the country’s road infrastructure, the most prominent of which is the National Highway Development Project (NHDP) launched in 1999.
Major road development programmes
NHDP: The National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), which is the nodal agency for
development, maintenance and management of the national highways, is implementing the NHDP. The programme involves upgrade/strengthening of about 54,000 km of highways in several phases at a planned investment of Rs. 300,000 crore (around US$60 billion), a major part of which is envisaged to come from the private sector. NHDP includes four-laning of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) with a total length of 5,846 km, and the North-South East-West (NS-EW) corridor, which involves development of 7,300 km of expressways connecting Srinagar (Kashmir) to Kanyakumari (Tamil Nadu), and Silchar (Assam) to Porbandar (Gujarat). Substantial progress has been achieved under NHDP with the four-laning of about 31% of the stretch already complete and another 24% under implementation; four-laning of GQ is almost complete.
Other Development Programmes: Many States are also planning to upgrade their State
highways. Around 77 projects with 7,800 km of State highway have been approved for development under the PPP mode. Further, development of rural roads is being undertaken through the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY).
Status of National and State Highways
15000 20000 40000 33000 State Highways National Highways
Under Upgrade Planned to be upgraded
Length in km
Source: MORTH, ICRA research Category of Roads in India
Category Length
National Highways/Expressways 71,134 km
State Highways 131,899 km
Major District Roads 467,763 km
Rural and other Roads 2,650,000 km Source: NHAI, ICRA research
Status of NHDP
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 20
Industry Structure and Role of Private Sector
Road development in India is undertaken by the Central and State Governments and implemented through agencies like NHAI, Border Roads Organisation (BRO), State public works departments (PWDs) and municipal corporations. Historically, development and maintenance of road infrastructure has been funded by the Government. Private sector interest in funding road projects has been lacking historically because of the large investment requirement, long gestation period, and uncertainty of returns. However, the private sector has played an important role in the road sector by taking up construction. Traditionally, construction and maintenance of Government funded roads has been executed by private contractors on EPC or item rate contract basis. Due to relatively low capital requirement in the construction business, many players both in the organised and unorganised sectors have been engaged in this business, resulting in high competitive intensity. However, many large construction players have stayed away from road construction because of the relatively low margins involved, and smaller project size in the sector. The road sector has witnessed significant changes over the last decade, with the policy framework being reworked and major development initiatives like NHDP being undertaken, thereby opening up opportunities for greater private sector participation. The enormous investment requirement of NHDP necessitates private sector participation for successful completion. Government initiatives have so far been successful in attracting foreign investment into the sector. Private sector funding of road projects usually takes the BOT route in which the private developer invests in the road development project and earns returns in the form of annuity or user fees (toll) over the concession period (which can range up to 30 years). The maintenance of the road during the concession period is the responsibility of the private developer. After the concession period the road is to be transferred back to the Government. Over the last five years, NHAI has been increasingly awarding projects on the BOT—toll model, which has reduced the funding pressure on the Government and increased the pace of development as well. Projects that are not commercially viable on the BOT—toll model are considered for other alternatives like viability gap funding (which involves providing an upfront grant to the developer), and BOT—annuity model (fixed annuity payments thereby eliminating traffic risk).
Typical Highway Development Models
Model Description
EPC Contract
Government funds the entire project cost. Contractor builds roads for Govt.
SPV Government sets up SPV, invests a part of project cost as equity. SPV raises loans to finance the project. SPV collects user fees and repays the loans.
BOT (Toll) Developer builds and maintains the road. Developer gets toll from users during concession period.
BOT (Annuity)
Developer builds and maintains the road. Developer gets fixed annuity payments from Government during concession period. Source: ICRA research
Break-up of Projects Awarded by NHAI (Length in km)
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 21
Key Risks Associated with BOT Projects
Funding Risk: The responsibility of arranging funding for the project lies with the developer. Further, the equity investment made by the developer towards the project gets blocked for a long period of time.
Implementation Risk: Delay in project implementation results in loss of revenues and cost-overruns, thereby impacting the liquidity of the project SPV and returns from the project. Some of the factors that can cause project delay include:
Land acquisition: The acquisition of land or right of way (RoW) remains the major drag in the implementation of road projects.
Environment and forest clearances
Clearances for rail over-bridges (ROBs) and rail under-bridges (RUBs)
Shifting of Utilities like electrical lines, water pipelines, sewer lines, and telecommunication lines calls for the assistance of the utility owning agencies concerned, and coordination takes time.
Law and order problems
Equipment/manpower constraints: Given the large number of projects awarded recently and planned to be awarded, the capacity of the construction industry could also become a constraining factor.
Traffic Risk: BOT projects are highly sensitive to traffic growth and any swing in traffic can have a significant impact on the project’s return indicators and debt servicing capability. Traffic could be impacted by factors such as economic growth in the region, existence/ development of alternative routes, and leakage of traffic. Volatility in traffic can be relatively higher in cases where there is concentration of traffic related to any particular industry.
Major Clearances
Clearances Authority
Pollution Clearance Central Pollution Control Board
Environmental Clearance Ministry of Environment & Forests
Forest Clearance Ministry of Environment & Forests
Rehabilitation,
Resettlement of Displaced Families
MoRTH, State Government, NHAI
ICRA LIMITED
INDIAN ROAD SECTOR
PAGE 22
ICRA Limited
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