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How to Get the Most Out of This Book
Thank you for downloading “Tell Me, Show Me – Powerful Trading Setups”. This book is designed for beginning, intermediate and advanced traders. The presenters in this book are leading experts in trading Stocks, Options, Futures, Forex and Nadex markets.As you read this book, you will be exposed to multiple strategies that have high probabilities of success and/or high profit. The strategies in this book is divided into three sections:
•“The Game Plan” – An introduction to the core trading methodologies of top trading educators, along with illustrations and examples.
•“The Movie” – Once you have read the chapter, you can view the complete webinar on the company, and how they approach trading the markets. You will gain a better understanding of their methodology along with examples not covered in the chapter.
•“Special Offers” – If you really like a strategy, you can follow the presenter and the strategy. There are thousands of dollars’ worth of trading tools, indicators, training and mentoring services, books and videos available at steeply discounted prices.
In short, you will have all of the information you need to begin following your new favorite strategy tomorrow. Some of the things you will learn in this book are:
• How to easily identify uptrends and downtrends using Renko Supreme OHLC Bars
• How an experienced Pit Trader trades Bonds • A Simple 5-Step Method for Trading the Eminis
• How to Trade Forex Pairs without Getting Stopped-Out • How to Profit from the “W-Bottom” Pattern.
• And much more
At TradingPub, it is our sincere hope that you take away several strategies that you can use when you are done reading this book. You will also learn about markets that you currently don’t trade, and you will find out if they are suited to your trading personality.
Finally, make sure to subscribe to TradingPub. We provide free ebooks, webinars, on-demand videos and many other publications for active traders in all of the markets. Our presenters are world-renowned industry experts and our content is provided free of charge in a relaxed and friendly setting.
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a winning system that you can
master in a day
By Roger Felton, Felton Trading Systems
how to create a profitable trading
strategy from simple setups
By Kevin J. Davey, Champion Trader
5 Simple steps to $500 and up per day
By Matt Brown, Newbie-Trader.com
a trip to the thrift store
By Ryan Herron, Joaquin Trading
a pristine lesson on the w-bottom pattern
By Greg Capra, Pristine Trading
my powerful trade setups
By Jack Broz, Broz on Bonds
tell me - show me - powerful trade setups
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56
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67
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trading fibonacci with options
By Jack Gleason, Major League Trading
learning how to trade where the market
is not moving
By Sean Jantz, Binary Trade Group
day trading the emini s&p 500 (es) and
light sweet crude oil (cl) live trade room
By Carlos Diaz, TradingMission.com
high probability nadex and forex
strategies
By Krystal Comber, SlickTrade.net
how to profit by trading against he crowd
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How To Create A Profitable Trading
Strategy From Simple Setups
Kevin J. Davey, Champion Trader
Trading is a funny game. Most people think it is easy, since all you need to start trading is a pulse, and enough money to open an account. With that accomplished, many think the next step is to pull up a chart, find a pattern, and begin trading. If only if was that simple!
Unfortunately, such an approach usually leads to something like this – a brief period of breakeven equity performance, followed by an inevitable downward sloping equity curve.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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As a futures trader for 25 years now, I can still painfully remember the time when I used the same approach, and lost 60% of my account in a few short weeks. It was extremely demoralizing, I can tell you that!
After my initial disastrous attempt at trading, I spent a lot of time researching and investigating the top trading methods I could find, and reading interviews with any and all successful traders I could find. After a great deal of searching, I realized one fundamental key:
To succeed in trading, you must have a strategy, and trading setup, that is profitable!
It sounds funny to say that, but most people think trading is all about emotions, psychology, journaling your feelings during trades, etc.
Now, don’t get me wrong – without proper emotional control and psychology, you won’t get far in trading, even with a profitable system and the best of setups. But, all the mental toughness in the world won’t help you make money with a losing strategy!
OK, so just what is a “profitable strategy?” Simply put, it is a set of rules that have been historically proven to make money OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. That last part is key – A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. A strategy that has worked over 1 month or 3 months or 6 months is nice, but it is just not enough time to say a strategy is really good.
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If that strategy works over 5-10 years, now we’re talking! You want to see the strategy perform well in up markets, down markets, flat markets and volatile markets. The longer the strategy performs, and the more trades it is profitable over, the more likely it is that the strategy will continue to do well in the future.
To find out if a strategy, or a setup works, you have to test it. Testing might sound like a daunting task. Fortunately, there is software that can take market data, combine it with your trading setup and rules, and evaluate your strategy’s historical performance. I use Tradestation to do this, although there are certainly other good software platforms out there.
So, what are some of my favorite setups? I like simple concepts: ● Breakouts for Trend Following
● Reversal points for Mean Reversion ● 2 Momentum Lengths for Trend Following
If you are interested in some of my setups, I have documented them in a pdf file, and also described them in a webinar I recently hosted. Just click the pictures below to access them.
The key, though, is NOT to take my trading setups, and blindly follow them. You need to test! Thankfully, as I mentioned, good testing software is out there. The bad part of testing software is that it is almost TOO easy to evaluate a setup or strategy. Most software encourages you to optimize, which can produce a nice looking equity curve in backtest, but fails in real time:
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
How can a strategy or setup that tested so well work so poorly in real time? Well, what most people don’t tell you is that you have to test, BUT you have to test correctly.
Trust me, I know. I used to test incorrectly, and not surprisingly, I got terrible results. But over time, I improved my method of testing and evaluating setups and strategies. I detailed my approach in my best selling trading book, “Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems.”
My process has been proven to work again and again. I used it to finish in 1st or 2nd place three years in a row in a worldwide, year long, real money trading contest. I used my method to triumph over some of the world’s best traders, so it is definitely something to take notice of.
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Following this process, you too can create long term profitable strategies. It is not easy (if trading was easy, everyone would be doing it!), but it can be done. Here is a short video where I walk you through the development steps for a Soybean futures strategy I have – one I trade with my own money, and based on a simple setup:
You might think developing a profitable strategy is arduous endeavor, and for many people it is. Typically, most people give up too quickly, and go back to haphazard trading with the “hot” chart pattern of the day. I want to offer you a different and better way.
I teach my approach, from A-Z, in a one day online class I call the Strategy Factory Workshop. I teach you my method, how to avoid all the pitfalls along the way, and I even throw in 3 strategies I currently trade - for free! Plus, I follow it all up 6 months of one on one support. I’ll be there to guide you as you create your first truly profitable strategy.
The Strategy Factory Workshop is a great way to learn the RIGHT way to develop trading strategies. With me there to guide you, you’ll be in good hands!
If you are serious about trading strategies, and if you’d read this far I assume you are, my strong recommendation is to learn to create profitable strategies yourself. It is hard work, but in the long run you’ll be better off – you will be able to create trading strategies for any market, tailored to your goals and objectives.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
I can help you create strategies just like I create for my own trading. I can assist as you create strategies for stocks, ETFs, futures and forex. Simply sign up for my “Strategy Factory Workshop.” I follow the workshop up with 6 months of personal support.
THE SPECIAL OFFER
If you want to find out more, simply CLICK HERE. When you sign up, just mention this e-book, and I’ll provide 3 extra months of support absolutely free. That is an extra $895 value!
P.S. When I say the workshop is a great value, I mean it. But don’t just take my word for it. Trading Schools.org gives it 5 stars, the only workshop on their website with a perfect score! Hear what this independent 3rd party has to say by tapping here.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin J. Davey, Founder of KJ Trading Systems, is a professional trader and a top-performing systems developer. He writes extensively in industry publications such as Futures Magazine and was featured as a “Market Master” in the book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” by Brent Penfold (Wiley, 2010).
Kevin is the author of TraderPlanet.com’s 2014 Trading Book Of The Year - “Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems – A Trader’s Journey From Data Mining to Monte Carlo Simulation to Live Trading” (Wiley, 2014). An aerospace engineer and MBA by background, he has been an independent trader for over 25 years.
Although Kevin has had a great deal of recent success, many of the early years were met with failure. Bloodied but not defeated, Kevin spent the next few years researching, reading and otherwise devouring all he could about trading. “I probably made every mistake possible, but I ended up learning a lot about the markets and how they work” explains Kevin.
That legwork certainly paid off in a worldwide futures trading contest. For three consecutive years, Kevin was usually near or at the top of the leaderboard. And the final results in this real time, real money contest are self evident:
2005 - 148% return (2nd place) 2006 - 107% return (1st place) 2007 - 112% return (2nd place)
Currently, Kevin trades full time, writes trading related articles and gives trading workshops. He is also available for one on one mentoring or consultation. This is in addition to continuously developing new trading systems and strategies. “Markets are ever changing, so my new system development work is a critical part of my success.”
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A Winning System That
You Can Master in a Day
By Roger Felton, Felton Trading Systems
Ah, you found it. The trading article you’ve been seeking for years. You knew it had to be hiding someplace. You’ve traded so long and struggled so hard that somebody had to eventually “spill the beans” and let you in on the greatest trading secret ever revealed. You paid your dues and now you’re ready, right?
Well, not so fast. Of course I’m going to share a simple, accurate, powerful and teachable trading system with you. Possibly one of the most mechanical and consistently profitable trading systems you’ll ever see. But (yes there’s a “but”) no trading system exists (or ever will exist) that is any better than the trader behind it pushing the buttons. Before we examine that statement, let’s make sure we all understand what a trading “system” actually is and is not.
A trading system is not a means by which a timid trader (who has been spanked so many times in the market that they have lost all faith and trust in their own ability to make sound trading decisions) can miraculously make a desired income level by letting a machine make their decisions for them. These traders have deep mental scars that can take a long time and a lot of work to heal. A trading system should be seen as nothing more than a tool to assist traders with the mundane tedious job of measuring, figuring, anticipating, filtering and data-crunching duties that computers can do much better and faster than any human.
A trained human trader, however, should always make the final decision to enter a trade. Humans can easily see many things that even the most intricately coded software would easily miss. For the same reason, when it comes to Trade Management, nothing can begin to equal the ability of a well-trained trader. So it’s the trader behind the system that really counts. A system alone is like a plane without a pilot, clubs without a golfer or a saw with no carpenter. Just a useless tool regardless of its potential ability to help do great things.
It’s important that traders understand this symbiotic relationship between traders and their tools. If you are a trader looking for a “winning trading system”, you must first look in the mirror.
But are there systems and methods that can help a trader who is already trained and experienced in the areas of Price Action, Trade Management, Technical Analysis and Self-Control? Absolutely! As long as you are aware of the imperative relationship between man and machine, so to speak, then let’s take a look at a really easy to understand and master trading system that utilizes some basic Price Action and TA principles that I use every day. If you’re willing to do the work, I think you’ll like what you’re about to learn.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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A good place to begin is with the way traders view markets. Think of your charts as your “eyes” to peer into the markets to try to determine what it’s doing and, more importantly, what it’s about to do. Well, if charts are our eyes than the bar type can be considered to be our “glasses”. Whether it is tick charts, range charts, volume charts, time-based charts, etc. each is designed to perform the job of allowing us to best determine what a given market has done in the past and likely will do in the future. Unfortunately, these “glasses”, if you will, don’t all perform their duties equally well. Like using binoculars to read the newspaper or a magnifying glass to study Mars, there are some obvious drawbacks to nearly every bar type in existence. But it’s all we have, right?
Take a look at a typical 1-minute chart here in Crude Oil on 4-17-15 from about 7:00am to a little after 11:00am CST. For most traders using time-based charts, this should look fairly familiar with red and blue bars running helter-skelter with few areas able to string bars of the same color very far before reversing direction.
This constant hither and yon price movement is typical of the huge amount of market “noise” generated by, not only this bar type, but many others as well. It’s this massive noise that often confuses traders into making mistakes. Is there a better way to see and trade markets? You bet.
We could spend time and waste space showing similar price action in tick charts, volume charts and, to a lesser degree in range charts and line-break charts. But the end result would be the same in that a reliable indication of price direction would still be difficult to determine. If it wasn’t, there wouldn’t be such an overwhelming percentage of failed traders. So, let’s observe something remarkably different and easy to understand.
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This is the Felton Trading Renko Supreme OHLC bar that we developed over 4 years ago. As I touted their many virtues of this modified Renko bar for years, we are now seeing other vendors and platform providers popping up with their own versions of this remarkable bar type. But, as of yet, I haven’t seen others with the ability to display the actual Open, High, Low and Close of what price did inside each bar with historical accuracy. But that’s really only necessary for back-testing purposes and not for what we are going to be learning today.
This example above is just one of an infinite number of variations that can be produced by any trader using them. This one is a 16,1 Renko Supreme chart that we call the “1-Step”. That is, each of the red and blue bars (body only) are 16 ticks in size (turn bars are double) and the “step size” or, the difference between the close of one bar and the close of the next is one tick.
See how angular and geometric they make the market appear? When a new direction starts, it usually stays in that direction for several bars, often for 100 or more. But as potentially great as these bars look, they aren’t of much use without signals. This is where these Renko Supreme bars really leave others in the dust. Look at the following FT Renko Supreme OHLC chart with some signals added.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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There are two very interesting things traders notice about the signals on these charts. Most have excellent profit potential and all of them are unheard of in the trading community. The TL1,2 and 3, the UA and SA, the BR and the SM…these don’t exist outside of Felton Trading but their structures are easy to explain and, thus, they are easy to identify in real time. I developed a coded system called SignalPro that automatically identifies them, announces them and tells me if I’m trading on the best possible timeframe and instrument. SignalPro does lots more but, again, those capabilities are not necessary for what we’ll be learning today.
Now let’s look at a variation of the FT Renko Supreme called the “Half-Step” chart. It’s called that because the “step size” is exactly one half of the bar size. This adds a new dimension in what you can do with these bars and a whole new world of unique signals that work tremendously well with them.
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As a half-step chart, this is Crude Oil (CL) on a 12,6 FT Renko Supreme chart. This of course means that each blue bar and red bar (body only) is 12 ticks in size while the step size is 6 ticks. Crude Oil contracts are each worth $10 per tick so even if a trader entered on the close of one bar’s signal and exited at the close of the next bar with just 2 contracts, the gross profit could be $120 if no slippage. We just as easily could be trading a 40,20 Renko Supreme where just one bar of profit could produce $400 gross profit. But most traders take advantage of the high probability of these charts and signals producing much more than one bar of profit and a trader might feel silly for exiting that early.
In the chart above, notice that rather large “M” formation between 8:30am and 9:30am on the timeline. On the second high of the double top, it has a magenta BD label and a red down arrow. Let’s take a closer look at that for our first signal lesson.
Below we see a close up view of that nice symmetrical “M” formation what many traders might recognize as a divergence signal to go short in the market. That’s correct and the computer generated BD signal validates the formation. Traders not familiar with Divergence as a trading signal can find plenty of information in an Internet search engine. But, basically, a divergence short is when a market forms a double top while a corresponding oscillator forms a lower high left to right. A bullish version would be the exact opposite from a double bottom in price and a higher low on an oscillator. The EDx signals simply identify larger divergence formations.
We have marked up this chart to point out some areas that you will want to pay attention to. First, there’s that red horizontal dotted line (with the yellow one just above it). This is SignalPro’s way of
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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marking the 50% retrace level of that first big run of blue bars. The red dotted line is exactly one-half of the distance between those two red squares marking the bottom and top of the string of blue bars. The green circle shows the intersection point.
The significance of this 50% level is apparent when you notice what price did on the two occasions when Price headed that way. On its first drop of red bars (which would be the 2nd leg of the “M” formation) Price came down and touched the 50% level to the very tick! Price finishes the 3rd blue leg of the formation and then heads downward on red bars that launched on the “trigger bar” market with the BD and red arrow. We would enter the trade at the close of the trigger which is market with
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the blue horizontal line. I never enter a signal on a Market Order. It’s always a Limit Order as I want Price to prove to me that it is already doing what every indication says it will. As the entry is triggered, the NinjaTrader ATM setting automatically places my stop at the top of the entry (trigger) bar’s “tail” and my exit target will be one tick shy of the 50% marker (shown with the horizontal yellow line). Where Price and Target connected is shown in the white circle and, as you can see, a total of 4 bars were between the entry and the target. Each bar produced 6 ticks of profit for a total of 24 ticks for the trade.
Again, trading just 2 contracts (as I do in my Trading Room), a trader could have made a gross profit of $480. If the earlier short had also been taken at the first peak of the double top down to the yellow marker, another $480 was possible for nearly $1000 in about one hour of trading on just two trades. Similar trading opportunities appear numerous times daily in any market that moves with reasonable volatility and liquidity. This includes Equities, FX, Options and, of course my favorite, Futures. This 50% retrace level is one I use every day because it is reached with such a high probability. In good volatility condition and with practically any signal to launch, Price will find the 50% line about 85 to 90% of the time. Whereas, the 80% is reached considerably less often and 100% is achieved only around 40% of the time.
Since such a nice profit can be realized with a simple 50% target, virtually no time would be necessary learning complicated and subjective methods such as Fibonacci and Elliott Waves. However, I do have students who are masters at these methods and they often trade beyond the 50% level quite successfully. But they took 10 years or more to hone that skill.
Now, using our 50% target level and the same entry point (close of the trigger bar) and the same stop placement, let’s explore some more trade signals…this time in the ES. I purposely chose the ES because it would be my last choice of markets that I personally would trade. Its compressed range, quarter-point tick and its infestation of HFT’s (High Frequency Traders) make it a poor choice for most average traders. Its only advantage is its huge volume liquidity but that overkill is of no use to the little guy. Regardless, this system still comes through even if the number of bars the ES can produce in a typical day is small compared to nearly all other markets and indices.
For the ES here I chose the 8,4 chart. This would allow each bar to produce 4 ticks of profit which in the ES is one point ($50 per contract). Trading just 2 contracts per trade, the profit potential is still very impressive as we see in the next chart example.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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Here we cover part of April 7th and 9th plus all of April 8th 2015. Taking every signal the code produced that also had a 50% target level printed, we see a total of 9 trades, both longs and shorts. Assuming that we had no real Trade Management skill yet and only traded for the 50% level and exited, we see a total of about 24 points generated in the ES on about 2 days of trading. This is only potential since the trader would have had to be trading around the clock unless he had a team or an auto-trader robot. Auto-trader systems are notorious for inefficiency and huge drawdown even if they are profitable overall. However this system is 100% mechanical with no subjective reasoning required. The moment of entry is known, the stop is known (to the tick) and the exit is known and all before the trade is ever executed. Of course some trades do lose but in the vast majority of those events much of the trade’s loss can be immediately recouped in the resulting breakout which is almost always good for two bars or so. I will gladly teach any trader interested in any of the signals marked with the yellow label including the Turn Signal (TS), Basic Divergence (BD), Extended Divergence (ED), Hidden Divergence (HD), etc. free of charge. More information on their structure is available in the accompanying video to this article.
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SPECIAL OFFER
For most traders this method of trading is totally new. Traders aren’t used to the idea of bars that self-filter market noise and produce such clean accurate signals. Many traders will have questions and, to be honest, I have a lot more to teach each of you. A good way to begin would be to actually use the SignalPro software itself and attend the Felton Trading Room daily Monday through Friday. You’ll have total access to all of our student training sessions which we conduct every day. Plus, I will be there for you for one-on-one personal mentorship for as much as you need. This means you can receive my personal guidance and training with no time limit on the sessions and I’m available even during evenings and on weekends with prior notice. As most of you know, nobody else in this entire industry does that. But I do because it works. Because it makes such a huge difference in the learning curve and the success rate of the traders I teach. I suggest that you consider our 30-day trial offer where you get all of the above benefits including unlimited access to me for just $149. That’s all. It’s a perfect way to see if how we trade and what we teach is for you with very little risk. By the way, if you have any questions or would like to learn more before making any investment, I’d be delighted to speak with you personally anytime. Just send an email to [email protected] for any questions you might have or if you would like more information on the software trial.
THE MOVIE
See a full class with Roger, simply CLICK HERE
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Roger Felton is President of Felton Trading but better known as a professional trader and tireless personal mentor to any trader needing help. He teaches a powerful and accurate system that is unlike anything traders have ever seen and he has created precision-coded software that crunches the data and gives traders everything they need to make consistently smart trading decisions. Roger teaches with clarity and patience. He communicates his boundless market knowledge in a manner that makes learning not only simple, but fun, too.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
5 Simple Steps to $500 and Up per Day
By Matt Brown,Newbie-Trader.com
I can provide any trader with the tools needed to make over $500 per day simply by using our proven
Auto Signal NT3 Power Tool in one of three index futures markets. Anyone willing to read this article
and watch our embedded videos will have a chance to see this tool in action, verify our results, and guarantee for themselves that this is a safe and fast way to start profiting with index futures.
Q: Do you feel like your current system is off just a fraction of a degree? Does it have huge potential, but you are just screwing up your entry timing, taking on too much heat, only to stop out and see the trade go on for a huge winner? Or worse yet, do you ever have winning trades that you hold onto far too long, only to see them come all the way back and hit your stop?
A: My guess is that you do, but don’t worry these past mistakes are not entirely your fault. We will show you how you can correct most of these issues almost immediately regardless of your trading style. If you are looking for a complete overhaul, we can help with that too. We provide solutions for the Newbie-Trader all the way to the Seasoned Pro so we hope you continue reading so we can help you cure some of these common trading mistakes.
Hi, my name is Matt Brown and I have taught thousands of students around the globe on how to make a living online trading the futures markets. Although you may have not heard of me directly, my alumni are among some of the largest professional Chicago Pit Traders who transitioned off
“The Floor” into electronic trading. Some appear regularly on CNBC, while others run hedge funds,
work for institutions, or are simply home schooling moms who trade in between driving the kids back and forth from soccer practice. Although it is nice to have these high profile clients, the majority of our students and alumni are people just like you and me who want nothing more than the Freedom
to work when they want, where they want, how they want and for whom they want.
We Know We Can...
● Restore Your Confidence in Trading ● Remove Your In-Trade Anxiety ● Improve Your Performance
● And Allow You To Trust Your System
Imagine yourself in as little as 30 days you have the ability to walk with a bounce in your step because you have complete control of your financial destiny. No longer are you dependent on anyone but yourself for your own financial success. You are having success with less anxiety because you are
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trading a proven plan discovering how easy it can be to take money out of the markets. It is a pretty nice vision isn’t it? Let’s make this vision your reality!
Thoughts lead to Feelings, Feelings lead to Actions, and Actions lead to Results. It has been my experience by teaching thousands of students over the last decade while running our live trading rooms that most folks can learn how to trade and successfully execute but it is their “In Trade” thoughts that alter their results. My goal is to teach you a simple proven 5 step auto signal system that will automatically give you audio and visual signals required to have success in trading.
The NT3 Power Tool is based on the simple philosophy of continuity among markets. Specifically we look at the actions of the of the S&P 500 Emini Futures and use our analysis to leverage corresponding movements in the Emini Dow , NASDAQ and the Russell Futures.
Below is a 1 minute comparison chart showing the percent relationships between the key index markets we trade for 1 trading day. The black line is the S&P 500, the brown line is the Dow, the green is the NASDAQ, and the blue is the Russell. Notice how the markets tend to beat to the same drum... we use this information to help us identify the ideal times to initiate trades with the highest probability of success.
Below I am going to break down the individual components of the basic 5 steps in our trading plan. Remember this plan is programmed into a tool that runs on NinjaTrader and does all the work for you and signals when it is time to trade. I will also be providing a link so you can see this explained in a detailed presentation. The purpose of the next few slides is to simply show the simplicity in the tool.
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Below is a screenshot of all the steps in action showing the actual tool with the visual entries. The gray box is the initial entry the teal box is secondary long entry the pink is secondary short entry.
THE MOVIE
Click Here to see a full presentation on the details of the NT3 Power Tool.
THE SPECIAL OFFER
Click Here to get access to a trial of the NT3 Power Tool operating on the Russell.
Click Here to purchase the NT3 Power Tool and receive a 25% discount of the retail price for the next 72 hours for seeing this Trading Pub Promotion. If you take the trial we will honor this discount for 3 days beyond the trial, simply send us an email to [email protected] with your trial start date.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Matt Brown is the founder and head trader at Newbie-Trader.com. He has successfully trained thousands of traders all around the world on how to make a living trading the online futures markets.
Like many he once too was caught in the Corporate America rat race. He started out in engineering and climbed the corporate ladder into a few executive leadership positions among some of the most respected Fortune 500 companies such as Allied Signal, Worthington Industries, and Emerson Electric only to find himself unfulfilled and dissatisfied.
It was about this time, a personal tragedy happened in his life and he knew it was time for a change. He found trading and a desire to learn how to make a living in the stock market. He started channeling all his technical background, passion and commitment into studying the markets with a heavy focus in technical analysis and trader psychology.
Now fast forward the hands of time and he comes with 20 years of experience in the financial marketplace and has spent the last 8+ years educating, training and mentoring individuals, on the technical aspects of futures trading.
Newbie-Trader.com is the simplified charting output that comes from these 8+ years of full-time, intensive research, testing, development, and real-time battleground trading… With the culmination outlay of over $87,000 and 10,000+ lines of programming code we have developed one terrific product. Our bullet proof system comes complete with entries, exits and trailing stops and it is powerful enough for the Seasoned Pro to trade up to 12 different Futures Markets, but easy enough that a Newbie can install, learn and implement it in almost no time at all.
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A TRIP TO THE THRIFT STORE
By Ryan Herron,Joaquin Trading
My wife just loves thrift stores! I remember when she bought an $80 dress for $5 at a thrift store and the tag was still on it! She was so happy with her purchase that I think she wore it 3 times that week. The dress was beautiful and fit perfectly. However there is a darker side to this story…
This magnificent dress was buried deep behind other clothes. She had to dig through a mountain of absolute waste just to find it, but at the time, she didn’t even know what she was looking for. Then out of all the mess, a gem emerged. It was filthy and covered in dust. The dress required washing really well but when all was said and done, it was a fantastic find.
I want you to take a math quiz for a moment. I want to see if you can figure out the next number in this sequence… 1.5300, 1.5500, 1.5400, 1.5600, 1.5500, 1.5700. Can you figure out the next number in this sequence? Just think about it for a minute. Try to visualize it. What we are doing is looking for a bargain.
I will come back to that number sequence in a minute but for now, let’s just discuss bargains and how they are suitable for buying or selling in the markets. How can you buy at a bargain? Would it be possible to buy the EUR/USD below where it is currently trading? Absolutely! I am about to show you how to combine a profitable trading strategy with bargain hunting and develop your own robust system. Now let’s think about that number sequence again. If you don’t know the answer, maybe this graph will help you out. Can you tell me what the next price in this sequence will be? 1.5300, 1.5500, 1.5400, 1.5600, 1.5500, 1.5700… The answer is 1.5600.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
A trend in the market does not go up in one straight line. It moves up and then down and then up and then down again. It ebbs and flows. Some liken it to the waves of the ocean. Many people get terrified that if they buy an uptrend and it starts to fall, it will fall for all eternity. This fall in price, in the midst of an uptrend, is often great places to buy.
… BUT EVERYONE KNOWS NOT TO BUY WHEN PRICE IS FALLING SO HOW CAN YOU BUY WHEN PRICE IS RISING BUT ALSO BUY BELOW THE SUPPORT AREA? This is one that stumps many new traders and rings an old bell in the light bulbs of the veteran traders mind.
Let’s take a look at our next chart to better explain this…
Would you say that it would be a ‘bargain’ to buy if the spot rate was currently trading at 1.5000 if I could actually buy it as if price was trading at 1.4900, a full 100 pips below the market?
Of course it would, you crazy hoot!
So to break it down a bit further, we will dig into the nitty gritty of the trade. There are a couple of things to remember…
To do this with accuracy, make sure you have a defined trend that has formed, not just a breakout. Keep your psychology in check because your own mind can hinder you in trading.
Back test what you are getting ready to learn. ***Back testing is the KEY to successful trading***
STEP 1 - Find a confirmed support area. If you have to guess where the support area is, you don’t have a support area. Confirmed support can be spotted a mile away.
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Step 2. Find a breakout to the upside.
Step 3.Note how many pips are between the support and breakout area and buy a Nadex Binary option Strike below that support area. and decide is the risk to reward is worth it. Below is a picture of a Nadex Strike ladder.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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Outcome #1 - Upon expiration of the option, price will be above or below the ‘strike’ that you paid $66 to purchase. If price expires above that area you bought, you will get your $66 back and also an additional $34 of profit.
Outcome #2 - Price falls to close below the strike you purchased and you lose your $66 you paid for the option. (this is not a good choice.)
Outcome #3 - Price falls to exactly where your strike is and you close your trade at a loss of $16 instead of $66. (This is a better choice.)
The simple fact is that if a trend has developed and you buy that breakout, the probabilities are that until that trend is over and done with, your strike price will never be hit and your trade will profit. During trends, they make a series of higher lows and higher highs. It is only after a low has been taken out that the trend starts to consolidate and potentially reverse. Until then, you are good.
I mean just look at the Dow Jones average since 2009 and you will see what I am talking about. Everyone and their brother has been calling the top for years only for price to rally the next day and keep going. When a trend forms, it forms for a reason and does not stop easily. Sometimes that trend can continue for years and years.
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Remember, trends are relative to the chart you are looking at. You can even look at a trend on the one minute chart. On smaller time frames, the strikes will be closer and the expirations will be sooner but it all works the same.
To prove this point, have a look at one of my videos about getting in on a trend. Now I want you to notice how far some of these trends move after they begin. What you will be watching is a one minute chart and I will be talking about bull spreads.
Bull spreads are another type of option Nadex offers. They can often be a bit less risky than binary options. These bull spreads also move more of a pip for pip type of thing than a binary does. Just take a look. The main point of this video is showing you that buying the high or selling the low actually works really well.
Click on the link below:
Does a 100% win rate on Nadex exist?
Here is a little kicker about Bull Spreads that is just fantastic! If you are a forex trader, you may want to pay attention to this… With a bull spread, you can buy a spot forex position and never have to worry about price diving 400 pips against you. You can literally pay a 10 pip premium in certain cases and if price dips below where your stop usually goes and then skyrockets from there, you will never be stopped out.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
Now back to the bargains and thrift stores. Buying at a price below the market seems like the best thing since Daisy Duke kicked Roscoe in the rear at the Boar’s Nest. I hope you found this information useful and if you ever want to find out more about trading a little different than everyone else, all you have to do is visit my link below.
THE MOVIE
See how you can trade Nadex with nearly no risk in this VIDEO on Nadex Bull Spreads Here
SPECIAL OFFER
Joaquin Trading offers several services that help new and experienced traders become better traders through back testing, learning one style of trading and impleminting a rules based system. We offer
1. Twitter Signals (About 8-10 every day) 2. Indicators (They offer a win rate of 60-90%)
3. A Nadex Back Tester (See the probability of a win/loss before you take a trade.) 4. A chat group (A community of like minded folks)
5. A Youtube Channel (Every training video is free to see)
6. A free members area to evaluate us before paying one red cent.
7. Ryan works very hard to meet the needs of each client and will go far above that of a traditional signal service..
If you mention that you read about me in this book, I will let you in on a free live video feed of what we do every day. I think you will like what you see. Visit - joaquintrading.com
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Herron runs a little service called Joaquin Trading. He started his trading career in the back of a van while traveling across the country. He has been featured on numerous trading related sources such as The Traders Podcast, Roku, Trading Pub, among others. He is just a down home country boy from Tennessee who doesn’t really care what others are doing as long as his clients are becoming better traders. He has his own style of southern charm mixed with the strictness of a school principal and loves teaching others about the markets.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
A Pristine Lesson on the
W-Bottom Pattern
By Greg Capra, Pristine Trading
Since 1994, the Pristine Method® has provided people just like you the stock trading education they need to achieve success in the markets through every market condition. For over 20 years we have successfully taught thousands of day traders, swing traders and investors.
Whether you are a novice starting out, or you are experienced in the markets, The Pristine Method® provides you with the comprehensive training you need for trading and investing with a path to success. Our approach is based on our timeless technical analysis-based, price action-based, method that you can apply to day trading, swing trading, and long-term investing, regardless of the instrument you trade. What we teach is a proper method that you can use every day, year in and year out (not indicators-based; we don’t sell indicators that quickly become useless).
Thousands of traders and investors just like you have repeatedly voted Pristine’s education to be the best. Trust your trading career and financial future with experienced trading professionals, effective educators and a time-tested method to support you throughout your trading career and/or retirement. The W-bottom pattern is a retest of a prior pivot low and reversal. Many traders understand this concept. Few, however, really understand that there are many variables that can have a significant impact on the success or failure of the pattern. In this lesson we are going to review the different ways or places a W-bottom can form.
The W-bottom is a pattern which typically results in a move higher, but the location where the pattern forms and/or what preceded it is a key piece of information that must be added. This information will greatly increase the reliability of the setup.
At Pristine, we teach students multiple technical concepts for trading and investing. These concepts individually are excellent tools; however, it’s the combination of these technical trading concepts in an organized method that creates excellent, high-odds opportunities. Here are some of the ways we teach using the W-bottom.
● A W-bottom within a downtrend and no price support to the left of current prices ● A W-bottom in a shorter time frame with the longer
● having formed a Climactic Buy Setup (CBS) ● A W-bottom after a strong momentum move higher ● A W-bottom after Major Support (MS) has been broken
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Keep in mind; all Pristine concepts are universal to all tradable instruments (Stocks, Futures, Forex, etc.) and time frames. Of course, a basic understanding these topics is vitally important to successful trading and investing, however, there is no ‘right or wrong’ answer when it comes to what instrument or time frame you should trade. It’s simply a choice.
Let’s review each of the above bullet points with a chart example. In each example I have excluded the price and time axis. The reason for this is the focus should be on the concept, not a specific time frame or price.
A W-bottom within a downtrend and no price support to the left of current prices
The first point to understand is that a W-bottom creates new support. In the chart above buyers have stepped up and stopped price from dropping further but there is no support to the left. As price moves up a pivot low (sometimes called a swing low) is established. Momentum then slows. Price turns back down and continues to fall as traders anticipate new lows. As the prior low is retested, there is always the potential for a W-bottom to form. While new support has been created and the possibility of prices moving to the upside has increased, the above scenario of the W-bottom is the least reliable because there is no support to the left. In other words, there is no compelling reason for traders to believe the prior downtrend is over.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
A W-bottom in a shorter time frame with the longer having formed a Climactic Buy Setup (CBS)
In the above scenario, prices have been falling candle-after-candle like the proverbial falling knife and are now at or near an area of Major Support (MS). With MS to the left we know that buyers are going to show up and try to take control from the sellers. It’s now time to drop down to a lower time frame in anticipation of the W-bottom forming. Some of you may be thinking; why would I buy when prices are in a downtrend, even if they are retesting a prior pivot low? The reason is that downtrends or what we refer to as a Stage 4 in the life cycle of price action often bottoms and transition into a sideways, Stage 1 (within the cycle) after reaching MS on a climactic drop. With this scenario, the W-bottom setup is an excellent trading opportunity.
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A W-bottom after a strong momentum move higher
In this scenario, price has moved up with strong momentum. When this happens, there is little to no price support below. There is now, what we call, a Pristine Price Void (PPV) below. Without price support to buy at on the pullback, there is no clear reference point to place a bid. Without price support, the odds of a price wiggle or shake out before a continued move up is likely. In this scenario, the W-bottom will be the setup to enter on. In the example shown price made a slightly higher low, but it is not uncommon for the right side of the W to make a lower low than the first pivot low. If this happens it is okay and often preferred because it can make for an even higher odds setup due to the shock effect on the earlier buyers’ stops being taking out.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
A W-bottom when Major Support has been broken
When Major Support has been broken in an uptrend that uptrend has been violated. In other words, the uptrend no longer exists. The series of higher highs and higher lows being broken, and price moving under MS now suggests a move lower to the next level of price support. As we know, what is suggested on the chart does not always happen (that is why the Pristine Method provides an objective approach meant to keep you in the moment of now!). So, with price having moved under MS and the next level of support lower, our initial thought is that price should fall to that lower support area. However, as we continue to watch what is taking place, we notice a W-bottom forming. This suggests that price is not going to move to that lower level. Rather, it is telling us that buyers have taken control, created new support and are going to attempt a move to the old highs, and very possibly beyond those old highs. The reason we should consider an area beyond those old highs is because a move below MS in the time frame being viewed does not necessarily violate the uptrend in the higher time-frame. For example, MS can be violated in the daily time-frame and the uptrend broken, but the weekly uptrend still is intact. Under this scenario, price often will move to new highs within that trend.
As with all price patterns, the understanding of candlestick analysis from a Pristine point of view is essential. The use of Bar-by-Bar analysis as well as the addition of other Pristine concepts will increase the accuracy of your trading or investing decisions.
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THE MOVIE
Here learn more about the Pristine Method®, WATCH THIS WEBINAR HERE. Pristine hosts free webinars Mondays and Thursdays at 4:15pm ET and would love to see you drop in.
THE SPECIAL OFFER
I would also like to extend a special offer to you for taking the time to read this lesson. To see this pattern, as well as others, traded LIVE in our interactive, online trading room simply email counselor@ pristine.com with the subject line, Trading Pub Offer- 2 Weeks Free, and you will receive 2 weeks of FREE access, to begin as soon as you would like!!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Capra is President and CEO of Pristine Trading, a leading online educational service for active, self-directed traders since 1994. He has been a day and swing trader and won the Moneyshow Live Trading Challenge six times in a row.
While the trading tools were crude in his early years of trading, Greg noticed that certain patterns would continually repeat themselves on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis. Greg identified these patterns and then dove into why these candlestick patterns would form and how to best profit from them. He discovered how to understand the human emotion contained within every candlestick formation; and soon, without the help of any unnecessary trading indicators, the world-renowned Pristine Method was formed. For more than 20 years Greg has made it his mission to win in the markets and has helped thousands of individual traders just like you achieve their goals of financial freedom and attain the lifestyle that comes with that freedom.
Greg Capra and Pristine have been featured on CNBC, Barron’s, Investors’ Business Daily, International Business Times, MSN Money and other financial media. People all over the world have been taught how to successfully use these winning concepts in their every day trading and investing careers. After several years of teaching the foundation material that traders still learn today in Trading the Pristine Method® (TPM) Mr. Capra took the Pristine Method® to a higher level and created Advanced Technical Strategies (ATS). ATS elevates students to a more comprehensive and deeper
understanding of how to use the tools and tactics learned in TPM. He is co-editor of Pristine’s flagship product, “The Pristine Swing Trader.”, editor of Pristine’s Chart of the Week used by thousands of
self-directed traders, author of his DVD seminar series, developed the Pristine Advanced Trading Lab. Greg has also authored “Trading Tools and Tactics, Reading the Mind of the Market”, and
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
My Powerful Trade Setups
By Jack Broz,Broz on Bonds
My name is Jack Broz. I am a 19-year member of the Chicago Board of Trade, where I trade 30-year bonds, 10-year notes, 5-year notes, and mini-Dow futures* from my desk on the trading floor. Along with my daily trading activity, I also run a trading room that allows my clients to view my charts, hear my take on trading conditions (as well as the trades I am taking and why), and be privy to information (support area(s), market bias etc) that I get from sources around the trading floor.
The way we trade is likely unique to most of you reading this in that we don’t use indicators.
When the bell rings at 2pm CT to close the bond market, I begin preparing for the next trading day. My approach to trading is 95% technical; I spend an hour or so figuring out price levels that will likely be support, resistance, and targets during the next trading session.
Upon arriving on the floor the next day (some days as early as 5:30 CT but usually closer to 6:30) I review how the overnight (Globex) session responded to my levels. The vast majority of the time it did (meaning my pivot was a low or high…my support held etc) so I “know the market is behaving correctly” and can trade with confidence into the pit session.
TAKE A QUICK LOOK HERE at the CBOT trading floor from my booth on the exchange:
Most of my clients are scalpers – day traders if you will – but they run the gamut from cash traders to spreaders to swing traders to hedgers. I strive to find 10-20 entries a day that we’ll look to scalp (take a quick profit on) the majority of the position, and trail a stop on the remainder. The most we’ll risk on a trade is $156.25/per contract.
While the work I did the previous afternoon (which I immediately print in my newsletter that I email to my clients) is the foundation for the way we’ll approach the trading day, what happens if the market doesn’t move enough to engage the newsletter price levels?
That is when we use the “setups”.
There are certain ways the markets ebb and flow - certain ways they tend to expand established ranges, and certain ways they tend to pullback in established ranges.
Let’s look a bit closer at the 10-year notes**. Below is a 5-minute bar chart of trade from the market’s re-open in Asia on April 23rd (the vertical green line) through the 4:00pm CT “out” (the last traded price in the post-pit electronic session) on the 24th. The green areas all represent “ebbs” – pullbacks into the trading range that we look to provide trade entries. The height of the green area shows the prices that trades can be initiated at.
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Working left to right we see six opportunities: #1 unable (not filled)
#2 winner #3 winner #4 unable #5 loser #6 winner
The chart below (also a 5 minute bar) shows the trade from the re-open on April 22nd (the green vertical line) through the end of the post-pit Globex session on the 23rd. 4 applications of this setup provided numerous trading opportunities. Let’s consider a few points:
As a trader initiating the short in box #1, did you scratch the trade when it took so long to develop? Or did you hold it for a profit? The 8 buying opportunities in boxes #2 and #3 - did you scalp profits there? Did you scratch? Did you get long on each opportunity and hold the position to the 129.065 highs? How about box #4? Did you scratch? Take the loss?
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
By studying the charts, you’re seeing fairly wide areas for trade entry…so how do you know which price is the best one to use?
Looking again at this chart of April 23-24 price action, Box #5 – the sell – points to an entry, that, by the time the market gets there, will be a pretty dramatic move off the lows. In most cases, strive to give that type of price action room – and cancel/reduce the resting orders placed near the bottom of the range and make the upper part the range your primary entry.
Resting orders you ask? Yes.
Remember, 10YR notes are first-in-first filled – so the sooner you identify the entry and place your order(s), the better chance you have of being filled. Further, you’re exploiting “ebbs” in the market; by reading this piece and studying the charts you now know where typical pullbacks in the 10YR note should stall.
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In short, once the market has established a low, go back above it using these box heights as a template, and scale in sell orders. After a new high appears to be established, do the same with buy orders. Another situation that should be respected when placing your orders in the entry area is the time of day relative to significant economic releases. Below is a 1 minute bar chart of the 10YR notes into and though the jobs report on April 3. Note that all sells placed in box #1 were run over…losers. However, as trade returned to more “normal” price action, boxes 2 and 3 provided opportunities.
It is very risky to attempt to exploit these “ebbs” into FOMC meetings or the Nonfarm Payrolls report; however, reports such as Philly Fed or Michigan Sentiment generally can be traded by using the edges of the entry area furthest from the current market (the current bid/ask).
As we move into the conclusion of this piece some of you are ready to put this setup to use during the next trading session – while others aren’t.
Some of the latter are scratching their head and saying “looks too easy”. Space constraints are an issue, but I will say this: finding entries IS easy. Furthermore, perhaps it’ll help you to know that this is a technique that floor traders use. Remember, all they had was a stack of trading cards and a pen. No computers, no monitors, no charts! They learned typical price action – and this particular setup still works in the electronic era we find ourselves in today.
It is my hope that by providing you with this valuable setup you and I will form a trading relationship. Perhaps you’ll contact me to learn my other setups; perhaps you’ll want to add my nightly newsletter or trading room to your trading toolbox. Maybe an online consultation to learn more about order placement in this particular setup is all you need.
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
SPECIAL OFFER
Start at www.BrozOnBonds.com by clicking “discover more” on the home page under the various services. Also, I encourage you to go though “Jack’s Corner” – my blog - which will show you more about how I view trading. Doing so will answer a lot of your questions –and then contact me so we can get to work on taking your trading to the next level.
There are no free trials at BrozOnBonds – but there are discounts for serious traders and students. For those of you who contact me and mention this eBook publication I will extend a 20% discount to any of my services. In addition, I will do all I can to tailor a program that fits your needs and your trading account (or education budget).
THE MOVIE
SEE THIS SHORT VIDEO that shows my trading booth at the Chicago Board of Trade and the set-up I use to trade the markets.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Broz was working in a California health club in the 1980s when he became acquainted with an options trader. He noticed that his new friend got off early, would work out and then go surfing. After finding out more details about the job he began a new career as a market reporter at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). It was 1989 and the CME offered trading classes for all its employees. In 1996, Jack Broz became a CBOT member and began his own trading career in the U.S. Bond pit and later the DOW pit. In 2001, Jack Broz founded and published the Marlin Letter; a web site that gave trading advice through the eyes of a futures trader. In late 2010 the Marlin Letter closed, but Jack then established Trade Bond Futures, born on the idea that honest trading advice should not have to be affordable to just the wealthiest traders. Today, Jack can still be found at his trading desk on the floor of the CBOT sharing his insights and feel to his clients spread across the globe.
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Tell Me Show Me
-Powerful Trade Setups
By Mark Sachs, Rightline Trading
INTRODUCTION
Part of my undergraduate and graduate training taught me that what may appear to be true and effective, when based solely on anecdotal evidence may wind up totally breaking down when rigorous scientific mathematical modeling is applied. In this regard, the rules governing a trading entry must be thoroughly tested before being applied, to determine its sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. If we decide that market direction is determined by a multivariable equation, that when optimized will yield results with an acceptable predictive value, it is incumbent upon us to elucidate the nature of each of these independent variables.
As we examine each candidate variable we determine if perturbing its value changes the predictive value of our equation. If it does not, this variable is discarded as being irrelevant. If it does, then we must determine its optimum value. For example, let’s say we decide that taking a trade directly off of support or resistance is a relevant independent trading variable. We then test this hypothesis by taking trading entries that originate directly off of a moving average for instance, and compare them with similar trading entries taken far off of support or resistance.
Our conclusion, based on the comparative analysis of the predictive value of these two types of trading entries validates the importance of incorporating this parameter in a trading methodology. Unfortunately, our work is not yet completed. We must now determine how far off support or resistance we may venture before the predictive value of a trading entry begins to deteriorate. The ongoing analysis of each and every independent variable, as they are uncovered, must be subjected to similar mathematical modeling.
THE USE OF MULTI-VARIABLE OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHMS TO DETERMINE TRADING METHODOLOGY
WHAT DOESN’T WORK
Let’s look at a concrete example of how accepting anecdotal dogma as being true can lead us astray and negatively impact our trading performance. Oscillators, whether they be stochastic, relative strength, or Williams %R were created with the intention of defining overbought and oversold market scenarios. They do so, by comparing the period price high to its close in a long trade and the period price low to its close in a short trade. It is accepted as fact that taking a long trade in an overbought market as defined by an oscillator increase risk and decreases the positive predictive value of a trading entry.
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
But if we look at the example depicted above, the best time to take a trading entry long is when stochastic is overbought. It tells you that bulls are firmly in control and the market has great upside potential. So given this apparent paradox, just what are we to make of the oscillator as a signal we incorporate into our trading methodology.
In order to answer this question we looked the predictive value of a trading entry when it utilized data provided by the stochastic line and compared it with the predictive value of a trading entry when data provided by the oscillator was ignored. The conclusion arrived at, after rigorous testing, was that oscillator data as an indicator for predicting market direction is useless. Overbought and oversold market conditions do exist, but oscillators do not define them. We have subsequently, eliminated the oscillator as a valid independent variable that goes into our trading equation.
Let’s look at another example. Fibonacci numbers: these were first defined by Fibonacci about 800 years ago. They are unique sequence of numbers that in nature describe the shape of a leaf, the pattern of a pinecone and the scale of a pineapple. Unlike numbers like Pie or Planks Constant they do not describe the shape of geometric objects or the interaction of particles on a macro or subatomic level. Fibonacci Transformations are unique mathematical curiosities that have no practical application in trading.
At some point in time, an unknown person or entity decided that market retracements and extensions could be predicted by the use of Fibonacci numbers:
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Over time, the use of Fibonacci Tools to enhance trading have become very popular: Fibonacci has developed a small group of ardent followers. Nonetheless, no one has even conducted a valid scientific study to look at the validity of this method.
We evaluated the predictive value of Fibonacci extensions and retracements with a look-back period of one year. Our optimization algorithm utilized one year of market replay data. The dependent variables consisted of a 50-period SMA, a 15-period EMA and a pivot indicator with a look back of 30 candles. What we found was this: the addition of Fibonacci to the already present dependent variables did nothing to enhance the predictive value of our trading entries. Ergo, we do not include Fibonacci in our trading methodology.
WHAT DOES WORK (Powerful Trade Set-Ups) Consolidation Breakout:
Price action (market movement) can be defined in one of three ways: 1) it can move in a defined trend, either up or down. 2) It can move in “chop” a period in which there is no definable trend or 3) it can move with a flat trend, oftentimes known as a channel. This is a period where the power of bulls equals the power of bears. The channel may last for many bars but eventually price will break out of the channel. At some point bulls may overwhelm bears and price will break out of consolidation to the upside, or bears may overwhelm bulls and price will break to the downside.
Market structure can predict with a high degree of accuracy which direction price will move when it breaks out of consolidation. Understanding the consolidation pattern, being able to recognize it on
TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
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TELL ME SHOW ME POWERFUL TRADE SET UPS
a trading chart and then knowing which parameters determine the direction price will take when it breaks out of a channel, can provide you with many successful trades.
Let’s look at some examples:
Above, we see a market that is in a clear-cut downtrend. The 50 and 15 period moving averages, which serve to define trend are both red and sloping down. The black box highlights a period of time when price moves sideways, i.e. moves in consolidation mode. As price moves in a channel towards resistance, posed by the 15-period moving average it will do one of two things: break out of consolidation to the upside, or break out of consolidation to the downside. We already know that overall, bears are in control of this market, that’s why it’s in a downtrend. Thus, at the termination of consolidation, which commonly occurs when the channel strikes support or resistance, the market has a high probability of breaking to the downside. Your entry candle is marked by the down pointing blue arrow. This is a high probability winning set-up and one that recurs each day on every market, multiple times.
Quantitative Analysis of Multiple Correlative Markets
A given market such the E-mini S&P moves in a direction that correlates with the direction of multiple other markets. What is key, is to determine the correlation coefficient of differing markets. The higher
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the number, the more often this market moves in the same direction (or the opposite direction) as our target market: in this case the E-mini S&P. In the case of an indicator that synthesizes all this data, the markets with a higher correlation coefficients must be given the greatest weight and the markets with a lowest correlation coefficients must be given the least weight. Let’s look at an example:
In the above example price breaks the 50-period moving average and heads down. It then retraces back to resistance, posed by the 15-period moving average. Price continuation to the downside is confirmed by the Quantitative Analysis Indicator, which shows red on both its upper and lower lines.