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A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

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Figure

Fig. 1 The number of sub-epidemics for epidemic waves associated with different parameters
Fig. 2 Epidemic wave profiles or the taxonomy of overlapping sub-epidemic waves. Five representative epidemic waves comprised of sub-epidemicsone is affected by interventions or behavior changes (temporary endemic(characterized by the following parameters:
Table 1 Quality of the model fits to outbreak data. The sub-epidemic model yielded the best fit to the daily incidence curves basedon four performance metrics described in the text
Fig. 3 Best fit of the sub-epidemic model to the SARS outbreak in Singapore. Our sub-epidemic model yielded the best fit to the incidence curveof the SARS outbreak (Table 1)
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