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A. WORLD ECONOMY. Number of Confirmed cases. deaths

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-5.20% -4.90%

-6%

-4.90% 1

CHART 1: GLOBAL GDP FORECAST 2020

World Bank (WB)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) United Nations (UN)

The economic picture in the second quarter was not much brighter but even more gloomy than the first quarter due to strict social distancing orders applied in most countries.

A. WORLD ECONOMY

11.000.000

+

500.000

+

Number of

Confirmed cases

Number of

deaths

(COVID-19 worldwide figures as of June 2020)

Just when the social distancing measures has been gradually lifted to reopen the economy, a second wave of infections hangs over the countries including the UK, Australia,

China and America…,

causing the governments to re-impose restrictions. The severe epidemic situation

makes the global growth forecasts in Q2 of the international organizations are not satisfactory results that all are record-low negative growth over many years (Chart 1).

GLOBAL MARKET PERFORMANCE 1H 2020

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-0.6 6.2 1.4 -3.4 -3.6 3.1 -5.4 9.1 -10 -5 0 5 10

Oil & Gas Basic Materials Industries Consumer Goods Health Care Services Finances Technology CHART 2: GLOBAL PERFORMANCE Q2 2020

FTSE All-Word Index by Sectors (%) Financial sector witnessed

the sharpest downturn of 5.4%. Petroleum fuel also fluctuated abnormally when the US WTI crude oil fell to negative level for the first time while the Brent in April lost 70%, dropping to the lowest level over the past 16 years. The most growing sector was technology with an increase of 9.1%.

A. WORLD ECONOMY

3.5%

(Source: International Monetary Fund - IMF)

Global Trade Inflation

0.4%

-1.3 ppt y-o-y Develop-ed Countries

4.2%

-1.2 ppt y-o-y Emerging Countries

400

Million full-time jobs Global Employment (Source: International Labour Organization) -33% -27% -22% -21% -20% -20% -20% -20% -13% 2% -43% -36% -23% -10% 2% Fran -ce Austr -alia UK Japan Singa-pore US Global Hong Kong China Germ

-any Hotel Retail Office Resid -ential

Indus -trial CHART 3 : PERF. OF GLOBAL REAL ESTATE COMPANIES 1H 2020

(Source: UBS – Largest Swiss banking institution)

(By region) (By sector)

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B. DOMESTIC ECONOMY

The decrease of essential commodities’ price such as gasoline and EVN’s electricity as well as discount in tourism expense to stimulate domestic demand, are mentioned as factors to restrain CPI in this Quarter.

4.77% 0.86% 1.72% 4.15% 3.29% 2.64% 4.19% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CPI

CPI Q2 2020

 2.83%

y-o-y

CPI 1H 2020

 4.19%

y-o-y 5.78% 6.36% 6.73% 6.73% 0.36% 5.65% 5.83% 7.05% 6.77% 1.81% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP Q2 (2016 – 2020) GDP 1H (2016 – 2020)

GDP Q2 2020

 0.36%

y-o-y

GDP 1H 2020

 1.81%

y-o-y 33.44% 14.16% 10.36% 42.04% Industry and construction

Agriculture, forestry and fishery

Taxes less subsidies on production

Service

Economic

structure

1H 2020

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1316 1512 1561 1618 1810 1710 1994 1243 450 26 23 9 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 T7-19 T8-19 T9-19 T10-19T11-19T12-19 T1-20 T2-20 T3-20 T4-20 T5-20 T6-20 INTERNATIONAL VISITORS TO VIETNAM

Unit: thousand arrivals 11.3 17 16.2 10.3 12.2 7.3 7.74 8.4 9.1 8.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 1H-2016 1H-2017 1H-2018 1H-2019 1H-2020

FDI

Registered capital

(billion USD) Realized capital (billion USD)

B. DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Newly registered

US$ 12.2

billion

 17.5%

(y-o-y) Realized capital

US$ 8.65

billion

 4.9%

(y-o-y) International Arrivals June 2020

 99.3%

(y-o-y) International Arrivals H1 2020

 55.8%

(y-o-y)

(Source: General statistics office of Vietnam)

-63% -60% -32% -56% -55% -56% -49% 106% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 0 200 400 600 800 1000

China Korea Russia Japan Taiwan US Thailand Campu -chia COUNTRIES WHICH HAVE THE MOST TOURISTS TO VIETNAM 1H 2020

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C. HANOI REAL ESTATE MARKET

The apartment market in 2020’s Q2 continued with the cautiousness of investors when almost no projects were newly launched to the market. New primary supply in this quarter mainly came from the next stage of existing projects. The increase of 245% compared to Q1 also shows a positive sign of recovery, although it decreased by 35% compared with the same period last year.

The prospective of apartment market in 2020’s last 6 months is still a strong recovery of affordable and mid-end apartments, the majority of customers are domestic home-buyers. In the most optimistic scenario, it is not until the end of the year that foreign investors can rejoin the market. The supply will also be supplemented by projects prepared for official launch such as Sunshine Empire, Lancaster Luminaire, ...

Total supply

34.814

 245%

q-o-q

 35%

y-o-y New supply Q2 2020

3.524

units

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

CHART 4: QUARTERLY PRIMARY SUPPLY (2018 – 2020)

2018 2019 2020

Project ed

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C. HANOI REAL ESTATE MARKET

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Nam Tu Liem Bac Tu Liem Ha Dong Gia Lam Thanh Xuan Hoang Mai Long Bien Thanh Tri Cau Giay Dong Anh Tay Ho Hai Ba Trung Dong Da Ba Dình CHART 5: APARTMENT PRIMARY SUPPLY BY DISTRICTS

Unit number Project number

(Source: HPG’s Research Team)

57 54 50 48 39 36 34 30 29 26 24 23 22 17 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Ba Dinh Tay Ho Dong Da Cau Giay Hai Ba Trung Thanh Xuan Nam Tu Liem Gia Lam Bac Tu Liem Long Bien Hoang Mai Ha Dong Thanh Tri Dong Anh CHART 6: AVERAGE PRICE BY DISTRICTS

Average Price (Million VND/m2)

(Source: HPG’s Research Team)

Affordable (< VND 25 million/m2) 22% Mid-end (VND 25 - 40 million/m2) 60% High-end (VND 40 - 65 million/m2) 14% Luxury (> VND 65 million/m2) 4%

(Source: HPG’s Research Team) Generally, the selling price in

Hanoi Q2 2020 has reached a slight increase of 1% q-o-q.

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 2018 2019 2020

CHART 7: VACANCY RATE & RENTAL

Grade A Vacancy Grade B Vacancy

Average Price Grade A ($US/m2/mo) Average Price Grade B ($US/m2/mo)

C. HANOI REAL ESTATE MARKET

The retail and office market begins to expose more negative impacts from COVID-19. A number of enterprises and small shopkeepers are facing with unexpected difficulties, causing their businesses suspended and return of their leased shops to the owner. Meanwhile, the new beginners are reluctant to chose their new business locations due to their worries in the extensive impact of COVID-19 till the end of 2020.

However, optimistically, it seems to be a great chance for many enterprises of good financial potential and long tem development targets. It is a gold time for them to find good locations with suitable leasing prices, long and cost-effective leasing terms.

VACANCY

RATE

Q2 2020

OFFICE RETAIL Grade A:

8.6%

 0.7 ppt y-o-y Grade B:

13.2%

 1.8 ppt y-o-y

10.3%

 1.2 ppt y-o-y

(Source: HPG’s Research Team)

In Q2, Capital Place located at 29 Lieu Giai, owned and

developed by

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C. HANOI REAL ESTATE MARKET

INDUSTRIAL ZONES

Land leasing

price

$ 105

(/sqm/lease term)

 6.06%

q-o-q

RBF leasing

price

$ 4.3

(/sqm/mo)

 2.3%

q-o-q

Industrial real estate market is still the highlight and expected to have a huge development potential in Vietnam during the coming years. The new trend of restructuring and moving large manufacture supply chains in the world; the implementation of free trade agreements and Government privileges have been attracting various foreign enterprises to Vietnam. Some large ones such as LG, Panasonic, Foxconn expose their plans to relocate their factories to Vietnam.

What we need to do now to enhance Vietnam’s competitive advantages over other countries like India, Thailand, Malaysia, etc are to improve infrastructure capability, create pre-eminent subzone planning to provide favorable conditions for enterprises, factories and supply chains.

References

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