CHILDREN AND YOUNG PEOPLE’S
SCRUTINY ADVISORY BOARD
Paper
No.
Meeting date:
10 December 2010
From: Caroline Sutton, Assistant
Director – Schools and Learning
Participation of 16-21 Year Olds in Education and Training
1.0 Purpose of Report1.1 To report on the participation of 16-21 year olds in education and training.
2.0 Issues for Scrutiny
2.1 Young people face an increasingly complex range of choices as they move through the 14-19 phase and beyond. They can also experience considerable pressure in making the right personal choice in the face of sometimes conflicting expectations and advice from their teachers and other professionals, their peer group and their parents and wider family.
2.2 The October 20th Spending Review announcement included a continuing commitment to raise the compulsory participation in learning age to 18 by 2015. The local authority also has a responsibility to secure adequate appropriate learning opportunities for all 16-19 year olds. This means that young people need appropriate levels of support to enable them to make the right choices to successfully progress on to the next stage of their education, training or employment at 14, 16 and 18/19.
2.3 There is considerable diversity in the structure and organisation of post 16 learning in Cumbria. Formal 16-19 education and training is provided in four general FE colleges; one Sixth Form College; the University of Cumbria's Brampton Road and Newton Rigg sites; 21 school sixth forms; one joint school sixth form centre; two Academies; over 30 work based learning providers, including the training centres of Cumbria's major employers; and approximately 12 voluntary sector providers.
3.0 Background
3.1 Data Sets
Five data sets are regularly used to measure and analyse participation and progression for 14 - 21 year olds. These include:-
Connexions annual Year 11 activity surveys; participation rates in education and training by 16-18 year olds (for NEET); the September Guarantee rates for 16 and 17 year olds; the annual post 18 destinations surveys.
The Young People's Learning Agency annual Strategic Analysis - particularly that data on participation in the 16-19 Individual Learner Records of FE colleges and training providers, and the school census.
The Local Authority Education Management System data sets.
Participation and progression data held by the National Apprenticeship Service and Skills Funding Agency.
Higher Education Initial Participation Rate data held by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) and the University and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS)
3.2 Unfortunately there are difficulties with each of these data sets which create inconsistencies in interpretation. There are variations in the provider base used in counts, for example, Connexions and UCAS include independent sector schools and the other data sets do not. Timeliness in the issue of participation data by the various agencies also causes problems in making valid year on year comparisons. For example, the earliest available data is for the September Guarantee which is confirmed in late October.
Other related data may become available over a year after this first count, for example UCAS and YPLA sector participation rates. This means that timely intervention to secure positive participation and progression can be delayed by the acquisition of relevant information to inform planning and delivery. The 14-19 Partnership aims to overcome this by working directly with individual providers to access the information needed to identify the specific needs of each cohort of learners to secure appropriate support.
4.0 Participation at 16. Year 11 Activity Survey with progression routes
Destinations School VIth Form Full time FE Total FT educ. Apprent-iceships Training Jobs without training NEET Total in learning 2007 40.6% 34.6% 75.2% 9.1% 2.8% 6.9% 4.5% 87.1% 2008 41.7% 36.1% 77.7% 7.0% 3.1% 2.6% 3.9% 87.9% 2009 43.9% 39.2% 83.1% 5.2% 2.7% 1.7% 3.2% 91.0%
4.1 The progression rates for 16 year olds, at the end of compulsory education, have shown continuous improvement year on year since 2003. The numbers who are NEET or not known continue to decline and compare very
favourably with regional and national averages. There is some year on year volatility in specific progression pathways that can often be explained by external factors. The drop in Apprenticeship participation of 16 year olds in 2009 was related to the availability of employed status placements and the impact of the recession. Similarly the drop in numbers in employment without training was related to the recession but was also the focus for a range of Raising Participation Trial initiatives with employers and young people in areas of the county where availability of work based learning opportunities is an issue.
4.2 Other data shows that participation at 17 can be equally volatile. Participation in school sixth forms is particularly high in Cumbria, when compared to national and regional averages, and there is some correlation with the relatively high take up of Apprenticeships at 17 and the transfer to FE Colleges at the end of Year 12.
5.0 16-18 year olds Not in Education, Employment or Training September Guarantee for 16 and 17 year olds
Participation in education and training by 17 year olds
16-18 NEET Jan. NEET at 16 October NEET at 17 October 16 - Sept Guarantee 17 - Sept Guarantee Participation in learning at 17 2008 5.3% 4.5% 6.1% 94% 78% 77.9% 2009 5.0% 3.9% 5.9% 95% 89% 83.6% 2010 4.6% 2.8% * 3.8% * 97.6% * 92.8% * Not Avail
* data is provisional and may change.
5.1 The sustained reduction, year on year, in the percentage and numbers of 16-18 year olds Not in Education, Employment and Training is a Cumbria success story. There is also good evidence to show that the concerns over participation, retention and progression rates for 17 year olds are showing a marked improvement in 2009 and 2010. There is, however, a need for vigilance as the extremely positive participation rates in Apprenticeships in the private sector may be subject to some pressure as a result of the local economic conditions.
6.0 16-18 Participation in Cumbria by Sector (National Comparisons)
Schools FE Colleges (inc VIthFC) Apprenticeships/ Training Other 2008 34% (18%) 37% (58%) 25% (18%) 3% (5%) 2009 35% 37% 24% 3%
6.1 The significance, or otherwise, in the sector participation rates across the county may be of relevance to a number of other policy drivers including the effectiveness of careers education and guidance; standards of achievement and narrowing the gap targets for 19 year olds; demand for higher education
opportunities in Cumbria; and, the organisation, viability and value for money of the 16-19 learning offer across the county.
7.0 Higher Education Initial Participation Rates (18-21 year olds)
Young (Under 21) Cumbria Domiciled Undergraduates in UK HEIs by Year of Entry
Numbers (%age of average Cumbria cohort)
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2010 * Allerdale 469 403 568 398 Barrow-in-Furness 372 269 371 357 Carlisle 495 456 499 361 Copeland 305 271 387 66 Eden 271 299 324 157 South Lakeland 594 577 685 424 Cumbria 2,506/(6391) 39.2% 2,275/(6463) 35.2% 2,834/(6602) 42.9% 1763/ (5119) 34.5%
7.1 2007-09 includes young people resident in Cumbria who attended state and independent schools and FE colleges in all Local Authority areas in UK
2010 * figures purely drawn from 17 schools, 1 Academy, 4 General FE Colleges and 1 WBLP
5 schools and 1 Academy declined participation and UoC figures were not available
The total cohort size for 2010 = 6268
8.0 Young (Under 21) Cumbria Domiciled Undergraduates in Oxbridge by Year of Entry LA_NAME 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2010* Allerdale 14 10 11 3 Barrow-in-Furness 0 0 3 2 Carlisle 8 1 4 4 Copeland 4 4 4 3 Eden 6 5 3 7 South Lakeland 4 7 11 4 Cumbria 36 27 36 23*
8.1 The data for 2006-2009 has been drawn together from a number of sources, including that which is available from HESA and UCAS. Whilst this shows a considerable year on year fluctuation, the general trend is improving quickly and the evidence gained from participating 16-19 schools and colleges in 2010 indicates that this is likely to continue.
8.2 There are two points worthy of note from the available data. The dip in participation in 2007/08 ran contrary to the previous trends and may have been at least partially related to increasing concerns amongst young people and their parents about the fees and living costs of higher education.
8.3 The second issue, which may be even more significant in the light of funding changes, is that there is a steady increase in the numbers of young people who are progressing on to undergraduate and foundation degrees from within their existing FE college. The estimates in the current year are that foundation degree programmes for qualified Apprentices will add at least 3% to the HE initial participation rates in the county. The 2006-09 data does not include foundation degrees or FE based provision and the 2010 data has captured under 50% of the estimated numbers involved. This increase is extremely positive as it means that young people are far more likely to stay in Cumbria, with the benefits that has for the county's demographic and economic profile.
Caroline Sutton
Assistant Director – Schools and Learning
28th October 2010
Appendices
No appendices
Previous Relevant Council or Executive Decisions
[including Local Committees]
No previous relevant decisions
Background Papers
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Contact: Adrienne Carmichael, County Manager Continuous Learning Tel: 01539 713482
