Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tools and Methods

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tools and Methods

Climate Finance Readiness Seminar

Leif Kindberg

Knowledge and Learning Manager, ARCC

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

• About ARCC

• Overview of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments

– Mali Climate Vulnerability Mapping

– Uganda Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

ABOUT ARCC

• Task Order: African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC)

• Duration: October 2011 – November 2014

• Team: World Resources Institute (WRI), ACDI/VOCA, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and others

• What ARCC does:

– Task Area 1: Development of Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies

• Purpose Our Work

– Assist USAID to design climate-smart policies and programs

Definition of Vulnerability

V = f(Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)

SUMMARY of

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

ARCC Vulnerability Assessments

Analytical Focus

Uganda Malawi Senegal Dominican Republic

West Africa Southern Honduras

Western Honduras

Agricultural Crops Coffee, Beans, Maize, Cassava, Matooke, Rice, Sweet Potato, Sorghum

Maize, Soybeans, Sorghum, Cowpeas, Pigeon Peas, Groundnuts

Maize, Sorghum, Sweet Potato, Groundnuts, Cowpeas, Pearl Millet, Fonio, Grasses, Fodders

N/A Maize,

Sorghum, Cowpea, Millet, Groundnuts, Cotton, Fonio, Rice, Sesame, Cassava

Maize, Beans, Coffee

Coffee, Potato, Lettuce, Maize, Beans

Livestock X X X

Fisheries X X X

Water Resources X X X X X X X

Ecosystems/Marine/

Forest

X X X X

Socio-Economic X X X X X X X

SUMMARY of VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT COMPONENTS

Analytical Components

Uganda Malawi Senegal Dominican

Republic West Africa Southern

Honduras Western Honduras

Spatial Six USAID Feed the Future Districts, 800 households

Central and South Regions:

Seven USAID Feed the Future Communities

Northeast Region (4 departments)

Four Watersheds (Urban and Coastal Communities

Mali, Niger

Cameroon, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, etc.

Two Departments (Valle and

Choluteca)

Six USAID Feed the Future Departments

Climate Analysis¹

X X+Wind X X+Wind Existing Research Existing Research Existing Research

Livelihoods Analysis

Household Survey, FGDs, KIIs

PRA, KIIs Household Survey, FGDs, KIIs

FGDs, KIIs FGDs, KIIs FGDs, KIIs

Crop Analysis Value Chains, Phenological

Value Chains, Phenological

Value Chain, Crop Modeling,

Phenological, Livestock

N/A Phenological, Adaptive Practices Assessment

Agricultural Ecosystems Analysis

Phenological, Value Chains

Water Analysis ^{Surface Surface} Access points for Livestock

Ground, Coastal Ground, Surface, Transboundary Rivers, Coastal

Watershed Ecohydrology, Coastal

Watersheds

Institutional ^{X X X X X X X}

MALI CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MAPPING: PURPOSE AND DESIGN

• Purpose: to highlight hotspots of vulnerability within Mali due to high climatic stress, high sensitivity (or susceptibility), and low adaptive capacity

• Focus: vulnerability of populations to food and livelihood insecurity due to changes in rainfall and increasing

temperatures that threaten agricultural production systems

• Method: a spatial vulnerability index comprising 18 indicators grouped into three vulnerability components:

– climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

• Valued attribute: food security, health, and wellbeing

• Temporal reference: the years ~2010 (current vulnerability),

2030 and 2050 (future exposure only)

MALI CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MAPPING: INDICATORS

Reliant on high quality data sets (low uncertainty and fine spatial resolution) that was readily available. Converted to gridded 30 arc-second (~1sq. Km)

Created separate maps for:

• Exposure

• Sensitivity

• Lack of Adaptive Capacity

• Vulnerability

Useful for:

• Targeting of

adaptation resources to benefit the most vulnerable currently

• Identifying areas for further research

MALI VULNERABILITY MAPPING:

OUTCOMES

UGANDA:

RESEARCH FRAMEWORK

• Purpose: To inform food security programming and investment decisions.

• Focus: How will projected changes in climate affect important agricultural value chains in

Uganda and the livelihoods of villagers who rely upon these value chains?

• Valued Attributes: household vulnerability (quantitative), crop phenology, value chains, surface water, and institutional capacity

(qualitative).

• Temporal Reference: 1951-80 and 1980-2010, 2015-2045

METHODOLOGY:

• Climate Analysis

– Historical observations (Annual, seasonal, monthly and daily

characteristics) 2 periods: 1951-80 and 1980-2010

– Climate modeling with statistical downscaling

• Livelihoods Analysis

– Quantitative: 800 household surveys – Qualitative: 80 focus group

discussions

• Crop Analysis

– 8 crop value chain assessments – Phenological screening

• Water Resource Analysis

05 1015 2025 3035

0 50 100 150 200 250

J M M J S N

GULU

Useful for:

• Establishing evidence base for vulnerability

• Disaggregating drivers of vulnerability

• Targeting of adaptation resources

ADAPTIVE PATHWAYS

Technical solutions:

• National research programs: drought resistant seeds, pests/diseases, climate information

• Effective extension services: intercropping, soil & water management

• Functioning input markets: organization, quality control, investment

Investment solutions:

• Expand livestock, plant trees, crops, purchase tractor, build irrigation

• Increase access to village savings and loan associations

Diversification solutions:

• Create income streams “protected” from climate variation including:

shopkeeping, skilled trades, agro-processing, teaching, civil service, etc.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN ASSESSMENT

Scoping

• Previous work

• Information needs

• Appropriate approach

• Data sources

Field Work

• Data collection/analysis

Options Analysis

• Awareness

• Understanding

• Developing

recommendations

Useful for:

• Understanding program overlap and avoiding redundancy

• Strengthening stakeholder support

• Ensuring consistency with national strategies and plans

TRANSFORMING ASSESSMENT INTO ACTION

 District Workshops

• 6 vulnerability assessment districts

• Capitalized on existing USAID/Uganda engagement platform

• District Operational Plans

• Attendees included district local government & USAID IPs

• Technical and non-technical staff

• Objectives

• Improve understanding of climate change

• Improve understanding of adaptation options

• Begin to formulate action plan to address climate change

• Introduce new district-level project to develop and implement action plans with a focus on integrating climate change into district

development plans

LESSONS LEARNED

• Using a participatory process from the start made people aware and interested in the assessment

– Fostered discussion throughout the process

• It takes a lot of time and effort to communicate effectively

– Need to make sure written documents can be understood by non-technical audiences while still being relevant to

technical individuals

– Presentations and workshops take a lot of time plan and implement

QUESTIONS?

More information at http://community.eldis.org/ARCC/

PRESENTING RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT

 Presentations

• Targeted

‒ USG, GOU, donors, researchers

• Broad

‒ Civil society, private sector, IPs

 Report

• Shortened Executive Summary

• Executive Summary

• Full Report

• Annexes

 Summary of Climate Findings

 District Scenarios

RESULTS: CLIMATE CHANGE

• Inter-annual rainfall variability is high.

• No robust and significant change in annual mean rainfall projected for the 2015-2045 period.

• Projection of potential increase in precipitation in December- February season (dry season in all locations).

• A consistent and significant warming trend has been observed and is projected to increase.

• There is a potential for increase in the frequency of extreme events.

• Current rainfall and temperature levels are suitable for agriculture throughout the entire country. Nevertheless,

changes in local rainfall seasonality may negatively impact on

crop value chains and increase livelihood vulnerabilities.

RESULTS: HOUSEHOLD SENSITIVITY

Three-quarters of the sample = most vulnerable Least vulnerable households:

– Have more producers relative to non-producers and are better educated

– Have physical assets that can be partially liquidated in the event of a crisis

– Have access to financial capital (crop sales, animal sales & off-farm income)

– Cultivate their social capital

Most vulnerable households:

– Higher dependency ratios

– Many female-headed households

– Food security is a measure of urgency: longer periods of food insecurity in 2011; food security deteriorated, while the less vulnerable households on average improved

RESULTS: CROP SENSITIVITY

Coffee and Matooke - most vulnerable to climate change

– With rising temperatures both Arabica and Robusta coffee will likely shift up the altitude profile; Erratic precipitation and rising

temperatures reduce productivity.

Maize, Beans and Rice - moderately vulnerable

– Rising temperatures unlikely to affect production; Maize is greatly affected by short-term water stress or hail, Beans develop significant fungal and viral diseases; Growing conditions for rice sub-optimal.

Sorghum, Cassava and Sweet Potato - less vulnerable

– Efficient photosynthesis, water retention and nutrient utilization of

sorghum adaptable to a wide range of climactic conditions; Both Sweet potato and cassava grow well in excess of the temperature increases yet, both are highly vulnerable to disease and pest.