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Stock Market Indicators:

Bull/Bear Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 16, 2015

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683

eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306

jabbott@yardeni.com

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333

djohnson@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333

aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

(2)

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

Table Of Contents

S&P 500

1

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

2

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

3

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

4

AAII Sentiment

5

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

6

Bulls & Bears

7

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Figure 1.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 Ratio Dec 1 1.54 Dec 8 1.63 Dec 15 1.28 12/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

Bull/Bear Ratio 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Bulls Bears Dec 1 41.2 26.8 Dec 8 44.9 27.6 Dec 15 37.8 29.6 12/15 Bulls Bears 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Correction Dec 1 32.0 Dec 8 27.5 Dec 15 32.6 12/15 Correction Camp yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

12/15

yardeni.com

* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 2.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1600 5600 9600 13600 17600 21600 1600 5600 9600 13600 17600 21600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF

3.0 OR MORE*

(ratio scale)

12/15

yardeni.com

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 3.

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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600

S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

12/15

yardeni.com

* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 4.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1600 5600 9600 13600 17600 21600 1600 5600 9600 13600 17600 21600

DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO

OF 1.0 OR LESS*

(ratio scale)

12/15

yardeni.com

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 5.

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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -40 -20 0 20 40 -40 -20 0 20 40

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500

(percent)

S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*

12/15

* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 3.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 -40 -20 0 20 40 -40 -20 0 20 40

S&P 500 Minus 200-Day Moving Average

Divided by S&P 500

(percent)

S&P 500 INDEX

LESS 200-DMA vs.

BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*

12/15

* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

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Figure 8.

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 12/9

AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS

AAII Bull Ratio*

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 12/9

AAII Bull/Bear Ratio

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Latest Readings Bulls Bears Dec 2 29.5 21.2 Dec 9 28.5 29.9 12/9 Bulls Bears

* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears. Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).

yardeni.com

(8)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 12/15 Nov

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

Bull/Bear Ratio (4-week average) Consumer Confidence Expectations Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.

Figure 9.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20 30 40 50 60 70 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 12/15

BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

Bull/Bear Ratio (4-week average) Consumer Comfort Index

yardeni.com

Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.

Figure 10.

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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 12/15 12/11

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL/BEAR RATIO

S&P 500 Forward P/E* (15.8) Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (1.3)

yardeni.com

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly. Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Investors Intelligence.

Figure 11.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 5 10 15 20 25 30 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 12/11

S&P 500 FORWARD P/E & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

S&P 500 Forward P/E* (15.8) Consumer

Comfort Index** (140.1)

yardeni.com

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. ** Index plus 100

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and BloombergBusiness.

Figure 12.

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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 .0 .5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 12/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS

Bull/Bear Ratio

52-week moving average (2.6)

yardeni.com

Source: Investors Intelligence.

Figure 13.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 40 50 60 70 80 90 40 50 60 70 80 90 12/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS + CORRECTION CAMP

(percent)

52-week moving average (80.1)

Source: Investors Intelligence

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 12/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BEARS

(percent)

52-week moving average (19.9)

Source: Investors Intelligence

yardeni.com

Figure 15.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 12/15

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE (BULLS + CORRECTION) / BEARS

52-week moving average (4.5)

Source: Investors Intelligence

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

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Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved. The information

contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not

necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or

correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other

information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on

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, and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued

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