Process Mining The influence of big data (and the internet of things) on the supply chain

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Process Mining

The influence of big data (and the internet

of things) on the supply chain

Wil van der Aalst

www.vdaalst.com @wvdaalst

www.processmining.org

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©Wil van der Aalst & TU/e (use only with permission & acknowledgements)

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My personal view:

1. Unprecedented amounts of data

about machines, products,

people, organizations, …

2. The ability to analyze such data

(scale, types of analysis,

(3)

My personal view:

1. Unprecedented amounts of data

about machines, products,

people, organizations, …

2. The ability to analyze such data

(scale, types of analysis,

(4)

1) Data: Internet of Events

Internet of

Content

Internet of

People

“social”

Internet of

Things

Internet of

Places

“cloud”

“mobility”

Internet of Events

“Big

Data”

(5)

2) Data Science: Generating value from data

• Spectacular progress in:

−

Analytics (various

types of mining)

−

Databases (NoSQL,

In-Memory)

−

Distribution

(MapReduce,

Hadoop)

• New discipline that is

data

mining

process

mining

_{visualization}

data

science

behavioral/

social

sciences

domain

knowledge

machine

learning

large scale

statistics

industrial

engineering

databases

stochastics

privacy

algorithms

(6)

A new discipline …

(7)

A new discipline …

(8)

A new discipline …

mathematics

computer scie

_nce

computer scie

_nce

data sc

_ience

(9)

(10)

DSC/e:

Competences and Research Programs

28 groups involved

Context: Why are we using data science, does it have the intended effect, and will

people accept it? Analysis: How to turn data into real value

(models, answers/decisions, and visualizations/insights)?

Enabling technologies: How to get the data and deal with computational/ infrastructural challenges (big data and

hard questions)?

Probability and Statistics

Stochastic Networks Data Mining Process Mining Visualization Large-Scale Distributed Systems Data-Intensive Algorithms Data-Driven Operations Management Data-Driven Innovation and

Business

Human and Social Analytics Privacy, Security, Ethics, and

Governance Internet of Things

sy

st

em

s

infr

_ast

ruc

tur

_es

cit

ies

o

rg

an

iza

tio

_n

s

people

[RP1] Process Analytics: Improving Service While Cutting Costs [RP2] Customer Journey:

Correlating Events to Learn and Influence Customer Behavior

[RP3] Smart Maintenance & Diagnostics: Safeguarding Availability

[RP4] Quantified Self:

Improving Performance and Well-Being

[RP5] Data Value and Privacy: Economic and Legal Aspects of Data Science

[RP6] Smart Cities:

Ensuring Safety and Convenience for Citizens [RP7] Smart Grids:

Data Intensive Infrastructures

[RP1] Process Analytics:

Improving Service While Cutting Costs

[RP2] Customer Journey:

Correlating Events to Learn and Influence Customer Behavior

[RP3] Smart Maintenance & Diagnostics:

Safeguarding Availability

[RP4] Quantified Self:

Improving Performance and Well-Being

[RP5] Data Value and Privacy:

Economic and Legal Aspects of Data Science

[RP6] Smart Cities:

Ensuring Safety and Convenience for Citizens

[RP7] Smart Grids:

(11)

Data Science Flagship (Philips & DSC/e)

• 4 Strategic topics

• 4 TU/e departments

• 16 PhD students

• 30 Data science specialists

1. Data Driven Value Propositions

2. Healthcare Smart Maintenance

(12)

(13)

Process Mining: On the interface

between process science and

data science

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(15)

Spreadsheet: Killer App for early computers

• VisiCalc

(killer

app for Apple II,

Oct. 1979)

• Lotus 1-2-3

(killer

app for IBM PC

1983)

• Microsoft Excel

(16)

(17)

Spreadsheet: Static data

(18)

Spreadsheet: Static data

31 items

sold

total

value

average

distribution

(19)

Spreadsheet: Static data

(20)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

• Input: events (“things that

have happened”)

• Mandatory per event:

−

case identifier

−

activity name

−

timestamp/date

• Optional

−

resource

−

transaction type

−

costs

−

…

case

identifier

activity

name

timestamp

resource

row = event

(21)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

(22)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

batching for activities

“opstellen eindnota” and

(23)

Loesje van

der Aalst

(24)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

process discovery

NO

modeling

(25)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

process discovery

NO

modeling

needed!

74 act.

11 act.

3 act.

(26)

event data

process

model

(27)

desire line

very safe

system

(28)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

conformance checking

(29)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

conformance checking

(30)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

conformance checking

final inspection is

skipped 40 times

(31)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

conformance checking

move on model

(something should have

happened, but did not)

move on log

(something happened that

should not happen)

(32)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

performance analysis

average

flowtime is

1.92 months

bottleneck

NO

modeling

needed!

(33)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

performance analysis

waiting time of

15.74 days

(34)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

animating reality

real cases

NO

modeling

(35)

Process Mining: Spreadsheet for behavior

16 cases are

queueing

(36)

Process Mining: The missing link

• Process-centric

and

data-centric

!

• To answer

conformance

and

performance

questions!

• Offline

and

online

.

• Multiple

perspectives:

−

control-flow

−

resources

−

time

−

data

−

…

process

mining

data-oriented analysis

(data mining, machine learning, business intelligence)

process model analysis

(simulation, verification, optimization, gaming, etc.)

performance-oriented

questions,

problems and

solutions

compliance-oriented

questions,

problems and

solutions

(37)

(38)

Replay

register travel

request (a)

get detailed

motivation

letter (c)

get support

from local

manager (b)

check budget

by finance (d)

decide (e)

accept

request (g)

reject

request (h)

reinitiate

request (f)

start

_end

a c d e g

(39)

Replay

register travel

request (a)

get detailed

motivation

letter (c)

get support

from local

manager (b)

decide (e)

accept

request (g)

a c

check budget (d)

is missing!

e g

?

(40)

Replay

register travel

request (a)

get detailed

motivation

letter (c)

get support

from local

manager (b)

check budget

by finance (d)

decide (e)

accept

request (g)

reject

request (h)

reinitiate

request (f)

start

_end

a c d e g

h

reject request (h) is

impossible

?

(41)

Replay with timestamps

register travel

request (a)

get detailed

motivation

letter (c)

get support

from local

manager (b)

check budget

by finance (d)

decide (e)

accept

request (g)

reject

request (h)

start

_end

a

9.15 c

9.20 d

9.35 e

10.15 g

11.30

9.15

9.20

10.15

11.30

5

55

20

40

75

(42)

Replay with timestamps

register travel

request (a)

get detailed

motivation

letter (c)

get support

from local

manager (b)

check budget

by finance (d)

decide (e)

accept

request (g)

reject

request (h)

reinitiate

request (f)

start

_end

5 ₅₅

20

40

75

15

20

60

45

65

20

25

45

55

50

5 ₅₅

20

40

75

15

20

60

45

65

20

25

45

55

50

5

55

20

40

75

15

20

60

45

65

20

25

45

55

50

(43)

Deviations

Where?

Why?

_time

costs

…

(44)

Supply Chain / Industry 4.0

• SAP process mining projects (cf.

ProcessGold, Celonis, etc.)

• EDImine project

(http://edimine.ec.tuwien.ac.at/)

• CORE (Consistently Optimized

Resilient Secure Global Supply Chains)

project (http://www.coreproject.eu/)

• Looking for interesting supply chain

applications (data first) …

(45)

How to get started?

• Event Data

• Process Mining Tools

(46)

Starting point for process mining:

Event data

student name

course name

exam date

mark

Peter Jones

Business Information systems

16-1-2014

8 Sandy Scott

Business Information systems

16-1-2014

5 Bridget White

Business Information systems

16-1-2014

9 John Anderson

Business Information systems

16-1-2014

8 Sandy Scott

BPM Systems

17-1-2014

7 Bridget White

BPM Systems

17-1-2014

8 Sandy Scott

Process Mining

20-1-2014

5 Bridget White

Process Mining

20-1-2014

9 John Anderson

Process Mining

20-1-2014

8 …

…

case id

activity name

timestamp

other data

every row is an event

(here: an exam attempt)

(47)

Another event log: patient treatment

patient

activity

timestamp

doctor

age

cost

5781

make X-ray

[email protected]

Dr. Jones

45

70.00 5541

blood test

[email protected]

Dr. Scott

61

40.00 5833

blood test

[email protected]

Dr. Scott

24

40.00 5781

blood test

[email protected]

Dr. Scott

45

40.00 5781

CT scan

[email protected]

Dr. Fox

45 1200.00

5833

surgery

[email protected]

Dr. Scott

24 2300.00

5781

handle payment

[email protected]

Carol Hope

45

0.00

(48)

Another event log: order handling

order

number

activity

timestamp

user

product

quantity

9901

register order

[email protected]

Sara Jones

iPhone5S

1 9902

register order

[email protected]

Sara Jones

iPhone5S

2 9903

register order

[email protected]

Sara Jones

iPhone4S

1 9901

check stock

[email protected]

Pete Scott

iPhone5S

1 9901

ship order

[email protected]

Sue Fox

iPhone5S

1 9903

check stock

[email protected]

Pete Scott

iPhone4S

1 9901

handle payment

[email protected]

Carol Hope

iPhone5S

1 9902

check stock

[email protected]

Pete Scott

iPhone5S

2 9902

cancel order

[email protected]

Carol Hope

iPhone5S

2 …

…

(49)

How to get started?

• Event Data

• Process Mining Tools

(50)

(51)

900+ plug-ins available covering the

whole process mining spectrum

(52)

©Wil van der Aalst & TU/e (use only with permission & acknowledgements) ©Wil van der Aalst & TU/e (use only with permission & acknowledgements)