Forecasting with panel data
Badi H. Baltagi
(Syracuse University)
Editorial Board: Heinz Herrmann
Thilo Liebig
Karl-Heinz Tödter
Deutsche Bundesbank, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt am Main
Tel +49 69 9566-1
Telex within Germany 41227, telex from abroad 414431, fax +49 69 5601071 Please address all orders in writing to: Deutsche Bundesbank,
Press and Public Relations Division, at the above address or via fax +49 69 9566-3077 Reproduction permitted only if source is stated.
ISBN 3–86558–185–4 (Printversion) ISBN 3–86558–186–2 (Internetversion)
This paper was presented at the 8th Bundesbank spring conference (May 2006) on “New Developments in Economic Forecasting”. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bundesbank.
New Developments in Economic Forecasting
8th Bundesbank Spring Conference
(Preliminary programme as at 10 March 2006)
Organisers: Michael Binder, Jörg Breitung, Heinz Herrmann
Eltville, 05/06 May 2006
Friday, 5 May 2006
9:00 - 9:30 Introductory remarks by Axel A Weber (Deutsche Bundesbank)
9:30 - 10:45 Multiple structural breaks, forecasting and present value calculations
Hashem Pesaran (University of Cambridge)
Discussant: Uwe Hassler(Johann Wolfgang
Goethe-University)
Siem Jan Koopman (Free University
Amsterdam)
10:45 – 11:00 Coffee break
11:00 - 12:15 Testing predictive ability using estimated co integration
relationships: Business as usual?
Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)
Discussant: Hans-Eggert Reimers(Hochschule Wismar)
12:15 – 14:00 Lunch
14:00 – 15:00 Global yield curve dynamics and interactions
Francis X Diebold (University of Pennsylvania)
Discussant: Stefan Mittnik(Ludwig-Maximilians-University
Munich)
Joachim Grammig (Eberhard-Karls-University Tübingen)
15:00 - 15:15 Coffee break
15:15 - 16:30 A benchmark for models of growth and inflation
Massimiliano Marcellino (Università Bocconi)
Discussant: George Kapetanios(University of London)
Todd Clark (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)
16:30 - 17:45 Forecasting with panel data
Badi Baltagi (Texas A&M University)
Discussant: Helmut Herwartz(Christian-Albrechts-University
Kiel)
Jean-Pierre Urbain (University Maastricht)
20:00 Dinner hosted by Axel A Weber (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Saturday, 6 May 2006
9:30 - 10:45 Did the ECB make a difference for Euro area business cycle?
Fabio Canova* (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)
Matteo Ciccarelli (European Central Bank)
Eva Ortega (Bank of Spain)
Discussant: Sandra Eickmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Domenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles)
10:45 - 11:00 Coffee break
11:00 - 12:15 Bayesian density forecasting with best performing priors determined
by entropic tilting
Charles Whiteman* (University of Iowa) Kurt Lewis (University of Iowa)
Discussant: John Geweke(University of Iowa)
Stephane Adjemian (CEPREMAP)
12:15 - 13:30 Lunch
13:30 - 14:45 Shrinkage methods for forecasting using many predictors
Mark Watson* (Princeton University)
James Stock (Harvard University)
Discussant: Gary Koop(University of Leicester)
14:45 - 16:00 Forecasting using a large number of predictors
Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank)
Discussant: Christian Schumacher(Deutsche Bundesbank)
Peter Vlaar (Dutch Central Bank)
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Non-technical summary
This paper provides a brief overview of forecasting with panel data. First, it discusses what the best linear unbiased prediction is when various assumptions are made about the error term, i. e. one-way error components, whereby the error term entails an unobservable individ-ual effect; two-way error components, where the error term entails an unobservable individindivid-ual effect and a time-specific effect; serial correlation in the error term; error terms with spatial correlation. Second, the paper considers heterogeneous data models versus homogeneous data models. It reviews numerous papers and discusses the conditions under which heterogeneous or homogeneous panel estimators perform better and in which cases pooling techniques are preferable to single country forecasts. Finally, the paper points to several outstanding issues and indicates the work which needs to be done if further progress is to be made in forecasting in a panel environment.
Nicht-technische Zusammenfassung
Dieses Papier gibt einen kurzen Überblick über die Prognose mit Paneldaten. Zunächst diskutiert es den besten linearen unverzerrten Schätzer wenn verschiedene Annahmen hin-sichtlich des Fehlerterms gegeben sind: Der Fehlerterm enthält einen unbeobachtbaren indivi-duellen Effekt; der Fehlerterm enthält sowohl einen unbeobachtbaren indiviindivi-duellen als auch einen zeitspezifischen Effekt; der Fehlerterm ist zeitlich korreliert; der Fehlerterm ist räumlich korreliert. Anschließend betrachtet das Papier Modelle mit heterogenen und homogenen Da-ten. Es gibt einen Überblick über viele Papiere und diskutiert, unter welchen Bedingungen homogene oder heterogene Panelschätzer sich als überlegen erwiesen haben und wo sich Poo-lingtechniken gegenüber Einzelgleichungsansätzen bei der Prognose als überlegen gezeigt haben. Schließlich wirft das Papier mehrere offene Fragen auf und zeigt welche Arbeiten noch zu erledigen sind, um bei der Prognose mit Paneldaten Fortschritte zu machen.
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The following Discussion Papers have been published since 2005:
Series 1: Economic Studies 1 2005 Financial constraints and capacity adjustment
in the United Kingdom – Evidence from a Ulf von Kalckreuth large panel of survey data Emma Murphy 2 2005 Common stationary and non-stationary
factors in the euro area analyzed in a
large-scale factor model Sandra Eickmeier 3 2005 Financial intermediaries, markets, F. Fecht, K. Huang,
and growth A. Martin
4 2005 The New Keynesian Phillips Curve
in Europe: does it fit or does it fail? Peter Tillmann 5 2005 Taxes and the financial structure Fred Ramb
of German inward FDI A. J. Weichenrieder 6 2005 International diversification at home Fang Cai
and abroad Francis E. Warnock 7 2005 Multinational enterprises, international trade,
and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence Wolfgang Keller from the United States Steven R. Yeaple 8 2005 Location choice and employment S. O. Becker,
decisions: a comparison of German K. Ekholm, R. Jäckle, and Swedish multinationals M.-A. Muendler 9 2005 Business cycles and FDI: Claudia M. Buch
evidence from German sectoral data Alexander Lipponer 10 2005 Multinational firms, exclusivity, Ping Lin
11 2005 Firm-level evidence on international Robin Brooks stock market comovement Marco Del Negro 12 2005 The determinants of intra-firm trade: in search Peter Egger
for export-import magnification effects Michael Pfaffermayr 13 2005 Foreign direct investment, spillovers and
absorptive capacity: evidence from quantile Sourafel Girma
regressions Holger Görg
14 2005 Learning on the quick and cheap: gains James R. Markusen from trade through imported expertise Thomas F. Rutherford 15 2005 Discriminatory auctions with seller discretion:
evidence from German treasury auctions Jörg Rocholl 16 2005 Consumption, wealth and business cycles: B. Hamburg,
why is Germany different? M. Hoffmann, J. Keller 17 2005 Tax incentives and the location of FDI: Thiess Buettner
evidence from a panel of German multinationals Martin Ruf 18 2005 Monetary Disequilibria and the Dieter Nautz
Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate Karsten Ruth 19 2005 Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für
Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren Stefan Stamfort 20 2005 How synchronized are central and east
European economies with the euro area? Sandra Eickmeier Evidence from a structural factor model Jörg Breitung 21 2005 Asymptotic distribution of linear unbiased J.-R. Kurz-Kim
estimators in the presence of heavy-tailed S.T. Rachev stochastic regressors and residuals G. Samorodnitsky
22 2005 The Role of Contracting Schemes for the Welfare Costs of Nominal Rigidities over
the Business Cycle Matthias Paustian 23 2005 The cross-sectional dynamics of German J. Döpke, M. Funke
business cycles: a bird’s eye view S. Holly, S. Weber 24 2005 Forecasting German GDP using alternative Christian Schumacher
factor models based on large datasets 25 2005 Time-dependent or state-dependent price
setting? – micro-evidence from German
metal-working industries – Harald Stahl
26 2005 Money demand and macroeconomic Claus Greiber uncertainty Wolfgang Lemke 27 2005 In search of distress risk J. Y. Campbell,
J. Hilscher, J. Szilagyi 28 2005 Recursive robust estimation and control Lars Peter Hansen
without commitment Thomas J. Sargent 29 2005 Asset pricing implications of Pareto optimality N. R. Kocherlakota
with private information Luigi Pistaferri 30 2005 Ultra high frequency volatility estimation Y. Aït-Sahalia,
with dependent microstructure noise P. A. Mykland, L. Zhang 31 2005 Umstellung der deutschen VGR auf Vorjahres-
preisbasis – Konzept und Konsequenzen für die aktuelle Wirtschaftsanalyse sowie die ökono-
32 2005 Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member
states – consequences for the enlargement of Sabine Herrmann the euro erea Axel Jochem 33 2005 An estimated DSGE model for the German
economy within the euro area Ernest Pytlarczyk 34 2005 Rational inattention: a research agenda Christopher A. Sims 35 2005 Monetary policy with model uncertainty: Lars E.O. Svensson
distribution forecast targeting Noah Williams 36 2005 Comparing the value revelance of R&D report- Fred Ramb
ing in Germany: standard and selection effects Markus Reitzig 37 2005 European inflation expectations dynamics J. Döpke, J. Dovern
U. Fritsche, J. Slacalek 38 2005 Dynamic factor models Sandra Eickmeier
Jörg Breitung
39 2005 Short-run and long-run comovement of GDP and some expenditure aggregates
in Germany, France and Italy Thomas A. Knetsch 40 2005 A“wreckers theory” of financial distress Ulf von Kalckreuth 41 2005 Trade balances of the central and east
European EU member states and the role Sabine Herrmann of foreign direct investment Axel Jochem 42 2005 Unit roots and cointegration in panels Jörg Breitung
M. Hashem Pesaran
1 2006 The dynamic relationship between the Euro
overnight rate, the ECB’s policy rate and the Dieter Nautz
term spread Christian J. Offermanns 2 2006 Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of Álvarez, Dhyne, Hoeberichts
new micro evidence Kwapil, Le Bihan, Lünnemann Martins, Sabbatini, Stahl
Vermeulen, Vilmunen
3 2006 Going multinational: What are the effects
on home market performance? Robert Jäckle 4 2006 Exports versus FDI in German manufacturing:
firm performance and participation in inter- Jens Matthias Arnold national markets Katrin Hussinger 5 2006 A disaggregated framework for the analysis of Kremer, Braz, Brosens
structural developments in public finances Langenus, Momigliano
Spolander
6 2006 Bond pricing when the short term interest rate Wolfgang Lemke follows a threshold process Theofanis Archontakis 7 2006 Has the impact of key determinants of German
exports changed?
Results from estimations of Germany’s intra
euro-area and extra euro-area exports Kerstin Stahn 8 2006 The coordination channel of foreign exchange Stefan Reitz
intervention: a nonlinear microstructural analysis Mark P. Taylor 9 2006 Capital, labour and productivity: What role do Antonio Bassanetti
they play in the potential GDP weakness of Jörg Döpke, Roberto Torrini France, Germany and Italy? Roberta Zizza
11 2006 The role of real wage rigidity and labor market
frictions for unemployment and inflation Kai Christoffel
dynamics Tobias Linzert
12 2006 Forecasting the price of crude oil via
convenience yield predictions Thomas A. Knetsch 13 2006 Foreign direct investment in the enlarged EU:
do taxes matter and to what extent? Guntram B. Wolff 14 2006 Inflation and relative price variability in the euro Dieter Nautz
area: evidence from a panel threshold model Juliane Scharff 15 2006 Internalization and internationalization
under competing real options Jan Hendrik Fisch 16 2006 Consumer price adjustment under the
microscope: Germany in a period of low Johannes Hoffmann inflation Jeong-Ryeol Kurz-Kim 17 2006 Identifying the role of labor markets Kai Christoffel
for monetary policy in an estimated Keith Küster DSGE model Tobias Linzert 18 2006 Do monetary indicators (still) predict
euro area inflation? Boris Hofmann 19 2006 Fool the markets? Creative accounting, Kerstin Bernoth
fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia Guntram B. Wolff 20 2006 How would formula apportionment in the EU
affect the distribution and the size of the Clemens Fuest corporate tax base? An analysis based on Thomas Hemmelgarn German multinationals Fred Ramb
21 2006 Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New
Keynesian model with capital accumulation Campbell Leith and non-Ricardian consumers Leopold von Thadden 22 2006 Real-time forecasting and political stock market Martin Bohl, Jörg Döpke
anomalies: evidence for the U.S. Christian Pierdzioch 23 2006 A reappraisal of the evidence on PPP:
a systematic investigation into MA roots Christoph Fischer in panel unit root tests and their implications Daniel Porath 24 2006 Margins of multinational labor substitution Sascha O. Becker
Marc-Andreas Mündler
Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies
1 2005 Measurement matters – Input price proxies
and bank efficiency in Germany Michael Koetter 2 2005 The supervisor’s portfolio: the market price
risk of German banks from 2001 to 2003 – Christoph Memmel Analysis and models for risk aggregation Carsten Wehn 3 2005 Do banks diversify loan portfolios? Andreas Kamp
A tentative answer based on individual Andreas Pfingsten bank loan portfolios Daniel Porath 4 2005 Banks, markets, and efficiency F. Fecht, A. Martin 5 2005 The forecast ability of risk-neutral densities Ben Craig
of foreign exchange Joachim Keller 6 2005 Cyclical implications of minimum capital
requirements Frank Heid
7 2005 Banks’ regulatory capital buffer and the
business cycle: evidence for German Stéphanie Stolz savings and cooperative banks Michael Wedow 8 2005 German bank lending to industrial and non-
industrial countries: driven by fundamentals
or different treatment? Thorsten Nestmann
9 2005 Accounting for distress in bank mergers M. Koetter, J. Bos, F. Heid C. Kool, J. Kolari, D. Porath 10 2005 The eurosystem money market auctions: Nikolaus Bartzsch
a banking perspective Ben Craig, Falko Fecht 11 2005 Financial integration and systemic Falko Fecht
