The scope
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renewable
energy
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Sir Martin Holdgate, Chairman of the Cumbria Renewables Panel Approved for publication, August 2009
Contents
1.0 Executive summary
2.0 Introduction: the genesis of this document
3.0 Background: previous studies, policy guidance and constraints
4.0 General considerations
5.0 The approach of this study
6.0 Employment potential
7.0 Other factors
8.0 A note on units
9.0 Estimated potential for renewables in Cumbria
9.1 Onshore wind
9.2 Offshore wind
9.3 Hydropower
9.4 Tidal schemes
9.5 Wave energy schemes
9.6 Solar energy
9.7 Geothermal energy and heat pumps
9.8 Organic resources (biomass)
9.8.1 Municipal, sewage and industrial wastes
9.8.2 Anaerobic digestion of farm wastes
9.8.3 Woodfuel in Cumbria
9.8.4 Energy crops
10.0 Evaluation of renewable energy potential in Cumbria
11.0 The way ahead
12.0 Appendix: Members of the panel
Image: E.ON UK plc
Chairman: Sir Martin Holdgate CB MA PhD FSB
Formerly Chief Scientist and Deputy Secretary, Department of the Environment (1976-1988).
Director General, IUCN – The World Conservation Union, 1988-1994. Chairman, Renewable Energy Advisory Group, 1991-92;
Energy Advisory Panel, 1993-1996;
Member, Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 1994-2002.
In 2001 Cumbria had a population of just under half a million people, living in just over 200,000 households. The domestic needs of those households for electricity could be met by only around 130 Megawatts (MW) of continuous generation, but the total energy requirements of the population (as a share of UK consumption) is estimated to be some 22 times greater, requiring 2.53 Gigawatts (GW) of generating plant. Some studies have suggested that demand will grow in the coming decade, but recent modelling predicts that improvements in efficiency may hold it more or less steady in the north- west region. At the same time, it is essential that the UK reduces its dependence on fossil fuels, thereby
contributing to action against climate change and enhancing national fuel security. Consequently energy production from renewables and nuclear power must increase. The Scoping Study has confirmed that Cumbria’s share of regional and national targets can be met using a wide mix of renewable sources.
The Panel’s study is not the first. It takes account of Government White Papers and Planning Policy Statements, and although it was largely completed before the
publication in July 2009 of the UK Renewable Energy Strategy and associated Low Carbon Plans it is fully compatible with those documents. Among local and regional studies, it draws on the Renewable Energy Development study by Axis Planning Consultants, undertaken as an input to the Joint Cumbria and Lake District National Park Structure Plan and the 4NW study by Ove Arup and Partners in 2008.
The Panel emphasises that while it is imperative to increase the share of energy that comes from renewable sources the merits of a renewable development have to be balanced against possible impacts on other sectors of the economy and on the welfare and quality of life of local communities. In Cumbria major hydro-power schemes, tidal barrages and large onshore wind farms could alter the look of areas of internationally-prized landscape and have impacts on the tourist industry that is one of the county’s mainstays. The Scoping Study is designed to help strike a rational balance between the conservation of these unique assets and the development of vital new energy sources.
The Study looks at each type of renewable energy in turn. In each section the potential theoretical resource is considered first, and then the environmental, social and economic factors that may moderate actual installation. The potential contribution to the Cumbrian economy is then evaluated, followed by an estimate (which becomes increasingly conjectural as remoter time horizons are addressed) of how much might be contributed in 2010, 2020 and 2050 in terms both of energy and employment. As part of its analysis of potential, the Study examines the likely geographical distribution of each kind of renewable resource. For example:
• offshore wind farms will obviously be located in the shallow seas off the Cumbrian west coast and in the outer reaches of the Solway and Morecambe Bay; • the greatest onshore wind potential is to be found on the ridge crests of the higher Lakeland and Pennine fells and in the western coastal belt; • the Solway, Morecambe Bay and the Duddon Estuary could be the site of major tidal energy schemes – the former having the potential to generate almost as much electricity as the projected Severn Barrage.
However, development in some of these areas is likely to be constrained by the need for a balance between energy provision, outdoor recreation and tourism, the conservation of nationally important landscapes and wildlife habitats and the social and economic welfare of local communities. Modest tidal power schemes with less environmental impact than the major barrages are likely to win favour. Onshore wind farms are likely, following Planning Policy Statement 22 and the County Council’s Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, to be excluded from National Parks and Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, which may be extended following current evaluation of some adjoining areas. They will hence be concentrated in the western coastal zone north of Barrow and east and north of Whitehaven and Workington, and possibly the uplands west of Kielder Forest and in parts of the M6 corridor.
The Renewable Energy Panel of Cumbria Vision was established in 2008 with a mandate to advise the Board on all matters relating to the development and operation of Renewable Energy in Cumbria. In January 2009 the Panel decided to review the scope for the various kinds of renewable energy in the county. The aim was to define which were most appropriate in Cumbria and would bring greatest benefit to the economy, and so help Cumbria Vision to encourage the enterprises that would contribute most to local welfare and national need.
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.0 Executive summary
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The Study also emphasises that the cost of producing a unit of energy varies from one renewable mode to another (not least because financial incentives vary) and that different technologies are at different stages of development. Over time, some technologies will grow while others plateau and even decline. For example, ‘embedded’ energy sources like electricity-generating photovoltaic tiles on the rooftops and facades of buildings and heat pumps drawing energy from the soil or air may well gain in popularity, not least because of the Government’s recent commitment to ‘feed-in’ tariffs. Job creation potential also varies from technology to technology. The Study concludes that many of the largest developments like offshore or onshore wind farms or major tidal barrages are likely largely to incorporate equipment made outside Cumbria, or even outside the UK, installed by labour that is also imported. Conversely, Cumbria has
a national centre of expertise in small-scale hydro-power and also has local enterprises able to build and maintain small-scale wind energy installations, solar systems and heat pumps. The county also has major potential for anaerobic digestion of farm and food wastes and for wood-burning boilers, supplied by the large tracts of woodland that are currently unmanaged or scarcely managed. The conclusions of the study are summarised in the table and the histogram on page 8.
For each date-line – 2010, 2020 and 2050 – the study estimates the installed capacity as Megawatts either of electricity or heat energy. Some sources are intermittent – onshore wind farms, for example, supply electricity for an average 28% of the time, and tidal stream turbines are also intermittent, albeit more predictable.
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For each date-line the Study also estimates how many jobs may be sustained by the sector in question, adjusting the number per unit of energy supplied as time passes to take account of likely efficiency gains. To summarise:In 00:
• it is expected that Cumbria will have only some 380MW of installed renewable capacity, almost all of it as electricity from wind, two thirds of that offshore. Most of the jobs are however likely to be associated with small-scale hydro and energy from landfill, sewage gas and fuelwood.By 00:
• the offshore wind sector is expected to have expanded dramatically and the county’s total capacity, again mostly for electricity production, to have risen to around 2500MW - 2.5GW – which is in theory sufficient to meet almost all of Cumbria’s needs if operating continuously. • the study is cautious about tidal power, projecting only 150MW of development, equivalent to either a small Solway Barrage or the Bridge Across Morecambe Bay, which would combine the attractions of a new communications link for West Cumbria with both wind and tidal stream turbines; • small-scale hydro, solar, geothermal and biomass sources are all expected to have advanced and to be important sectors of employment, with a total of about 2500 jobs in the renewable energy sector by this period.By 00:
• onshore wind is expected to have reached a ceiling because the sensible sites have been taken up and it is assumed that the internationally acclaimed Cumbrian landscape, source of so much tourist income, will be safeguarded; • offshore wind could however be a very big player indeed; • tidal power could well have expanded a great deal, possibly using tidal stream turbines, some in association with wind farms; • wave energy may have become a contributor, though potential in the land-locked Irish Sea is relatively limited; • solar systems could have taken off, impelled by feed-in tariffs and the Government commitment to a zero carbon standard for all new homes built after 2016; • ground and air sourced heat pumps are also predicted to gain popularity, replacing the use of domestic heating oil.The Scoping Study therefore predicts both an expansion in renewable energy development in Cumbria and a change in the mix of modes. Wind energy is expected to be the dominant renewable source initially, but in the longer term other modes may well expand. Some of these offer greater employment and industrial development potential in Cumbria. By mid-century, technology like solar panels, heat pumps and wood-fired boilers could be burgeoning. Some of the associated jobs will be new, but others will be filled by people transferring from industries like those currently supplying and servicing oil-fired heating.
There are of course uncertainties. Photovoltaic tile arrays are durable, but they need further development and the encouragement of the new tariff structure if they are to sweep the market. Their attraction is that their land-take is no more than that of the building they sit on, and they provide income for their owners from the sale of surplus electricity to the grid. Cumbria’s woodlands could also produce useful fuel while retaining their natural beauty and diversity and their role as important sinks for carbon dioxide. Today Cumbria’s woods and peat mires hold 265 million tonnes of carbon dioxide and take up nearly 700,000 tonnes a year – absorbing about a tenth of the county’s emissions.
The Scoping Study therefore concludes that there is considerable scope for renewable energy development in Cumbria. By 2020 the county should be producing enough to match the demand of its population. By 2050 it should be a significant exporter of renewable energy. And this can be achieved without damaging Cumbria’s magnificent landscapes or harming its important tourist industry.
The Renewables Panel of Cumbria Vision will now be examining the several renewable modes, and especially seeking ways of stimulating small and medium sized enterprises working in this sector. It hopes and expects to work in partnership through the proposals currently under discussion for a focussed sustainable energy team for Cumbria.
2010 Jobs 2020 Jobs 2050 Jobs
Onshore Wind 115MW 57 250MW 112 400MW 80 Offshore Wind 240MW 96 2000MW 720 2400MW to 3500MW 384 to 560 Hydro 3MW 150 6MW 270 10MW 200 Tidal 0 0 150MW 135 250MW to 300MW 100 to 120 Wave 0 0 0 to 25MW 0 to 2 0 to 500MW 0 to 20 Solar (PV and thermal) <1MW 25 20MW 594 40MW to 100MW 528 to 1,320 Geothermal (includes GSHP & ASHP) 0.5MW 200 5MW 1,800 50MW to 520MW 2,000 to 4,160 Landfill/Sewage 10MW 190 25MW 427 25MW 190 Farm wastes 2MW 42 20MW 378 50MW 420 Wood 10MW 200 10MW to 40MW 180 to 720 20MW to 60MW 160 to 480 Totals 381.5MW 960 2486MW to 2541MW 4,616 to 5,158 3245MW to 5465MW 4,262 to 7,550 Estimated installed capacity of renewable modes and associated jobs in 2010, 2020 and 2050.
Note that output from geothermal and wood will be predominantly thermal, and there will be some solar thermal also.
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In 2001 Cumbria had a population of 487,607 people, living in 209,027 households1 (average
2.33 people per household). Some 7.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide were emitted per annum, 3.8mt from industry, 1.2mt from households and 2.2mt from other sources 2. This works
out at 14.86 tonnes per person per year. Total domestic energy consumption is likely to have been under 3 million kWh/day, requiring some 130MW of generation capacity, but if every Cumbrian is attributed the UK average consumption of 125kWh/day the figure rises to 61 million kWh/day3 and this would demand over 2,500MW (2.5GW) of constant supply.
Although many projections assume increasing energy demand in the coming half century, recent modelling predicts that more efficient energy use could well hold demand level or even reduce it in the north-west region over the coming decade4. The Government is seeking to
reduce UK carbon dioxide emissions by at least 80% by 2050, and as one step towards that end it plans to meet 15% of national energy needs from renewable sources by 20205. In 2006 renewables met only 1.5% of the national
requirement6. Cumbria has been set a carbon reduction
target of 619,000 tonnes per annum by 2011 and by 2010 was expected to have 219MW of installed onshore wind energy capacity (one third of the target of 649MW for the north-west region). By 2015 the Cumbrian target was supposed to be 268MW installed capacity out of a regional total of 797MW.
The Renewable Energy Panel of Cumbria Vision has a mandate7 to advise the Board on all matters relating to the
development and operation of renewable energy in Cumbria including energy-efficiency related technology and proposals, with particular emphasis on the impact of investment decisions on job creation and prosperity in the County. At its meeting on 28 January 2009 the Panel agreed to undertake a scoping study evaluating the potential for different types of renewable energy in Cumbria. The present paper is the result. It has been written by the Panel Chairman, Sir Martin Holdgate, but draws on the expert advice and guidance of Panel members and the secretariat of Cumbria Vision. Produced for the Board of Cumbria Vision, it sets out to examine which renewable technologies will best be able to support the economic outcomes described in the Cumbria Economic Strategy, 2009. Because Cumbria Vision is especially concerned with promoting the development of the county economy, it looks at the scope for locally-based enterprises that will benefit Cumbria as well as help contribute to regional and national targets. It has been based on best available information at the time of writing, but as it seeks to look nearly half a century ahead, figures will undoubtedly change as technological advances are made and Government policies evolve.
Time horizons are important. The design life of energy installations varies: hydro-power schemes, coastal barrages, large power stations and parts of the grid network may last 50 years or more whereas wind farms have a planned life of 25 years and among domestic-scale technology only solar photovoltaic (silicon crystal) panels have been proved to last more than 25-30 years. Furthermore, renewable technologies are at different stages of development, with differing degrees of uncertainty over output, cost and durability. Current uptake is considerably influenced by Government subsidy, designed to stimulate the market but not equally favourable to all modes. The Renewables Obligation, for example, only supports electricity generation and has largely encouraged centralised schemes, which is why the Government is now developing new forms of support for renewable heat and renewable transport and seeking to encourage small-scale clean electricity through feed-in tariffs8. Potential also varies according
to geographical situation and the feasibility of a cost effective connection to the grid network supplying power to consumers. Acceptability in a particular location is influenced by potential impact on valued environmental features (such as landscape quality or biodiversity), community welfare and local economics. All these parameters are changing, and this will influence the mix of sources used to meet the Government’s stated target of 80% reduction in national carbon emissions by 2050. This report assesses the potential supply from different types of renewable in Cumbria in 2010, 2020 and 2050. There is inevitable speculation about technological advances that may increase the importance of some energy modes in the future. There is also inevitable speculation about the number and type of jobs that may be created in the various sectors. At the same time, by urging a broad approach to renewable energy, with all modes enabled to evolve as technology, markets and social needs dictate, the Panel favours resilience: enterprises will need to be adaptive, changing as opportunities change. The whole paper should be viewed as a snapshot of a dynamic landscape, and it will need review from time to time as the renewable energy sector and social demands evolve.
1 Data from 2001 census. 2 Cumbria County Council and Cumbria Strategic Partnership, Cumbria Climate Change Strategy, 2008-2012. 3 Data on domestic and average national consumption per head from David J C Mackay, Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air, UIT Cambridge, 2009. 4 Data in paper by Helen Seagrave, NW Energy Council. 5 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009. 6 BERR. UK Renewable Energy Consultation Document, June 2008. National consumption was 1800TWh and renewables provided 25TWh. 7 Terms of Reference for Cumbria Vision Renewables Panel 8The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapter 3.
.0 Introduction:
the genesis of this document
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
6000
Potential renewable energy
generation capacity in Cumbria
2010 low estimate 2010 high estimate 2020 low estimate 2020 high estimate 2050 low estimate 2050 high estimate Wood Farm wastes Landfill/Sewage Geothermal Solar Wave Tidal Hydro Offshore Wind Onshore Wind 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
8000
Potential number of jobs created in
renewable energy sector in Cumbria
2010 low estimate 2010 high estimate 2020 low estimate 2020 high estimate 2050 low estimate 2050 high estimate Wood Farm wastes Landfill/Sewage Geothermal Solar Wave Tidal Hydro Offshore Wind Onshore Wind
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The Joint Cumbria and Lake District Structure Plan andseveral Local Plans drawn up by Districts set out general policy towards renewable energy, and the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Policy document has been adopted by the local planning authorities to provide guidance to developers seeking sites.
There have been several overviews of renewable energy potential in the North West in general or Cumbria in particular. The two most important are:
• Renewable Energy Development in Cumbria – Identifying the Potential prepared for Cumbria County Council
and Sustainability North West by Axis Planning Consultants in 2003 as part of the development of the Joint Cumbria and Lake District National Park Structure Plan, 2001-2016;
• Ove Arup and Partners study Towards Broad Areas for
Renewable Energy Development, undertaken for the
North West Regional Assembly (now 4NW) in 2008 in support of the review of the Regional Spatial Strategy.
The Regional Spatial Strategy includes specific targets for renewable energy in Cumbria.
The market for renewables is dependant upon finance and Government (following EU policy) has provided incentives through the Renewable Obligation, which requires utility companies either to supply a certain proportion of renewable energy (set at 11.4% by 2011/12) evidenced by Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs) or to pay a buy-out price. Government has announced9 its intention to
extend the RO until 2037 for new projects, and to remove the maximum obligation level of 20%. While consultation on new RO bands is continuing, support for offshore wind is to be increased. A Renewable Heat Incentive is to be introduced, and feed-in tariffs will be available for small-scale distributed electricity generation schemes with a capacity of up to 5MW. The result should be a greater diversification of renewables, including electricity from community-level and domestic-level installations, and encouragement of a range of heat generating systems including heat pumps and the use of biomass (especially wood) for domestic and commercial heating and combined heat and power (CHP). The development of renewable energy is guided by general Government policy,
as set out in the Energy White Papers of 2003 and 2007, the UK Renewable Energy Strategy and Low Carbon Strategies and Plan of July 2009 and specific Planning Policy Statements of which the most relevant are PPS 1 (Delivering Sustainable Development, with supplement on Planning and Climate Change) and PPS22 (Renewable Energy).
Since the potential of wind, hydro, tidal, wave, solar, geothermal and biomass energy depends critically on location and terrain, the scope for different renewables varies widely in Cumbria. Geographical potential is further affected by environmental policy
constraints, arising from social and economic priorities which make some forms of renewable development inappropriate or undesirable in particular places. For example, it is generally accepted policy that large on-shore wind farms should not be permitted in National Parks, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty or equivalent designated landscapes.10
9 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm7686, July 2009.
10 This policy is affirmed in Government White Papers, PPS22, the Cumbria and LDNP Joint Structure Plan, the Cumbria Wind Energy Supplementary Planning Document, Local Environment Plans and the decisions of several Planning Inquiries.
.0 Background: previous studies, policy guidance
and constraints
Image: oil seed rape field in Cumbria www.istockphoto.com
Conversely, there is a view that current planning procedures needlessly impede or delay socially valuable renewable energy developments: the 2008 Planning Act is intended to facilitate a better balance between the need to safeguard environmental features and the need for new developments, and to speed up planning consents for energy projects above 50MW.
Most land in Britain is privately or corporately owned. Unless public authorities are prepared to over-ride private interests, renewable developments will only occur where landowners are willing to make sites available – commonly because they see financial advantage in so doing. This has a strong influence on the location of development proposals, whose appropriateness is then evaluated against planning policy and guidance. Although the latter may indicate areas where development is judged more or less appropriate, there is no strategic zonation or site allocation for major renewable developments such as wind farms.
As already noted, different renewable technologies are at different stages of technical development:
• hydro-power has been tapped for over a century, with a major expansion in Scotland immediately following the second World War; • wind turbines (manufactured almost exclusively outside the UK) have been in the market for some 30 years, though their capacity has increased steadily; • wood has been the traditional fuel of humanity since the dawn of civilization, and efficient stoves and boilers for domestic and commercial heating and perhaps modest-sized local power stations are now entering the market. • other biofuels, grown specifically for combustion (rotational willow coppice or Miscanthus grass) or as feedstock for transport fuel (maize or oilseed rape) are slowly advancing but cause some concern because of their competition for land with food production; • there is a wide range of ‘energy from waste’ techniques including tapping landfill sites and sewage works for methane as a source of heat and power and the use of solid municipal organic wastes as a fuel; • anaerobic digestion of organic wastes to yield methane has potential environmental benefits and has been in or near-market for many years without making a breakthrough in the UK: it is currently being promoted energetically in Cumbria; • tidal barrages have also been debated for many years and have major potential (as well as major environmental impact): they are now under serious consideration while tidal stream turbines are being tested in several locations; • domestic scale solar heating panels and photovoltaics are becoming more attractive and their market penetration is expected to increase in the coming decade; • small-scale ground- and air-sourced heat pumps have been available commercially for many years and are gaining popularity, especially in rural areas which lack mains gas and are hence over-reliant on oil for heating; • wave power, debated for at least thirty years, seems at last to be entering the market place although low wave energy may limit opportunities off the Cumbrian coasts.
The third, linked, set of issues concerns time and unit cost. Harnessing some forms of renewable energy demands large-scale and very costly installations such as tidal barrages and large dams (both subject to environmental objections). These, like major power stations, also take a long time (say 8-15 years) to move from drawing board to completed scheme, and once completed they need to be operated for decades for the investment to be recovered. Wind farms, in contrast, involve structures with lower unit costs and the smaller-scale ‘embedded’ devices at domestic or community scale are cheaper still.
There is a disincentive to invest in large and expensive structures if there is a prospect of a new and cheaper technology coming on-stream, at much lower unit cost, on a time scale of a decade or so. Manufacturers and utilities clearly need returns that will satisfy their shareholders, and to ensure substantial renewable development Government has found it necessary to intervene in the market (notably through the Renewable Obligation). As already noted, this has favoured centralised electricity generation projects and especially wind farms: by introducing feed-in tariffs for installations of up to 5MW capacity the Government is likely to stimulate ‘embedded’ small-scale and community-level wind energy, along with photovoltaic arrays. Marine energy is to receive encouragement through a Marine Action Plan and investment in wave and tidal energy testing while the Renewable Heat Incentive, support for renewable transport, and a wide range of support for new resources and technologies should provide a balanced incentive for the development of various other forms of renewable energy11. There could be a major stimulus to geothermal
and biomass-fuel enterprises.
There is one further point to make. Electricity generation depends on a network to reach the user, and the creation of a scatter of renewable sources, some of them small-scale, will make it necessary to adjust (and often enhance) the network. In conjunction with the opportunity for nuclear new build, this will demand a strategic review of the grid. Network deficiencies are currently impeding the input of renewable energy in some parts of Scotland, and similar barriers could be a problem in Cumbria. The Government is addressing these issues and will use powers granted in the Energy Act 2008 to introduce reforms to grid access arrangements12.
11 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapters 3, 4 and 5.
12 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapter 4.
The technologies are reviewed in the following sequence: • Onshore wind
• Offshore wind • Hydropower • Tidal schemes • Wave energy schemes
• Solar energy (thermal and photovoltaic) • Geothermal energy (including heat pumps) • Biomass (broken down into separate sections
dealing with energy from municipal wastes (including sewage and food wastes), farm wastes, wood and energy crops).
Having reviewed the options, the study concludes by evaluating the most probable pattern in Cumbria from both a technical and local economic standpoint and considering the way ahead. The aim is to help inform investment decisions as to which specific areas of renewable power Cumbria Vision should support in order to help create prosperity for people living in the county. The study does not seek to provide an evidence base for spatial planning for renewables or for county-wide target setting.
The following sections evaluate the scope for the various kinds of renewable in Cumbria under the following headings:
• Theoretical potential. What is a reasonable estimate of potential in Cumbria?
• Geographical distribution. How is it distributed geographically over the county, including the adjacent shallow seas?
• Environmental and social factors. How far are these likely to influence the utilisation of the resource?
• Economic and Infrastructure factors. How far are these likely to affect development?
• Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. What are the prospects for Cumbria-based enterprises and jobs in the sector concerned?
• Prospective Contribution to Cumbria’s Renewable Energy targets. What is the likely contribution of this form of renewable in 2010, 2020 and 2050?
Excluding the nuclear sector, early analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, it is perhaps the smaller output renewable technology which could provide the biggest benefit to Cumbrian economy. This may well suit the profile of the county’s businesses which tend to be smaller than the usual SME’s, and would indicate that there is a clear lobbying role
to ensure government policy encourages deployment. This may be favoured by recent decisions on feed-in tariffs and smart and strategic grid infrastructure upgrades and, on a local level, by working with policy makers and planning authorities.
Each technology section includes a best-guess analysis of the potential for job creation. This is of course open to challenge and will be amended as greater clarity evolves. Some of the figures could change dramatically if inward investment for manufacturing facilities can be attracted and secured, but the focus is more towards how many jobs could be created over a long term period through the sales, installation and maintenance of each specific renewable technology. Evidently, as time passes there is bound to be a diminishing return on jobs as technology and processes mature. For this reason the calculations have been scaled down by a blanket 10% in 2020 and 60% in 2050, rounding down to the nearest FTE.
.0 The approach of this study
Most renewable systems do not operate to capacity all
the time, because of variations in wind, river flow, tide or sunshine. The load factor or capacity factor is the average percentage of capacity actually delivered: for on-shore wind farms this is around 26%-30% depending on location. Energy use is commonly measured in kilowatt hours (kWh). A standard ‘unit’ of electricity is one kilowatt used for one hour (1 kWh). A 40-watt electric light bulb, left on continually, uses 1kWh in a 24 hour day (lkWh/day) or 365 kWh in a year. A megawatt (MW) of capacity, operating continually, delivers 2.36GWh a year.
Some ‘popular’ units are often encountered in newspapers and other literature. For example:
CO2 emissions per person per year in UK – 9 tonnes13
CO2 emissions per year per home (domestic emissions per household) – 4 tonnes
It is sometimes stated that a renewable development will supply ‘5000 homes’. This assumes that an average home or household uses 4700 kWh/year or 13kWh per day – equivalent to 0.54kW of installed capacity. This is purely domestic electricity consumption, and does not include that household’s heating, transport or share of energy consumption in the workplace. The average household’s energy consumption per day in the UK is stated to be about 24 times as much. An average person uses about 125 kWh/day or 45,625kWh/yr14.
The capacity of a renewable source to supply energy is rated in kilowatts - kW - (1000 watts), megawatts - MW - (1 million watts) or gigawatts - GW - (1 (American) billion watts).
.0 Estimated potential for
renewables in Cumbria
. Onshore wind
Theoretical potential. Cumbria is an upland county and
average wind speeds of 8 to 11 metres per second are experienced in many places on the high fells. Mean wind speeds in the 7 to 9 metres per second range are found at many points on the western coastal belt15. If development
were unconstrained by other factors the theoretical onshore wind energy capacity could be of the order of gigawatts, though the intermittent nature of the resource means an average 28% load factor16. The 2003 Axis study estimated
a Cumbrian potential of 200-355MW, divided among 24-37 developments with individual turbines rated at 1.5MW. Since then, turbines rated at 3MW capacity, borne on masts 120m high measured from base to rotor tip have entered the market, and this would clearly permit the Axis estimate to be realised with far fewer individual installations. Indeed, 5MW turbines are now being manufactured, though they seem likely only to be deployed offshore. The 4NW Report analysed the proportion of the theoretical maximum capacity that might actually be developed, taking constraints on land into account and indicated a maximum onshore wind capacity for the north west of 522MW: if 65% was in Cumbria that would amount to 339MW by 2020.
13 See David J C Mackay, Sustainable Energy – Without the Hot Air (UIT, Cambridge, 2009) for a critique of these units. Cumbrians, at 14.86 tonnes, exceed the national average.
14 David Mackay, loc. cit. 15 County Wind Resource Map. ETSU for DTI, October 1993. 16 Department of Trade and Industry, Digest of UK Energy Statistics, 2005
The study also omits assessment of the scope for increased efficiency in energy use, though it is recognised that this will be an essential component of any strategy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. However the Panel recognises the potential importance of energy service industries that will assist consumers in Cumbria to use supplies more efficiently. The scope is obvious: for example 30-35% of
boilers in the county are 12 or more years old, some 15% of homes lack any insulation, while a further 30-35% have only minimal provision. Because conservation could deliver a contribution on a footing with a major renewable supply source, and provide employment in the process, the Panel will include energy efficiency in its programme of work and will continue to encourage enterprises working in this field. The Study has not evaluated the scope for nuclear power, because this is outside the remit of the Renewables Panel, and it has also omitted consideration of the potential for carbon capture and storage (CCS) although this is being seen in many quarters as an important technology allowing continued use of coal and other fossil fuels as a primary energy source, as well as cleaning up a range of carbon-emitting industries. Likewise, the role of Cumbria’s woodlands and wetlands as important carbon stores and ‘sinks’ is only treated briefly, although it is estimated that these hold carbon equivalent to 35 million and 230 million tonnes of CO2 respectively and together fix 690,000 tonnes of CO2 per annum.
Image: E.ON UK plc
.0 A note on units
There is also scope for smaller-scale installations
‘embedded’ in urban or rural settings. Current models typically generate from 1 to 15kW for rotors borne on masts of 9-30m height. The new feed-in tariffs guaranteeing a reasonable price for electricity sold to utility companies may make small or medium scale installations attractive to enterprises (including farms) and to communities owning sites and installations collectively.
Geographical distribution. The County Council Wind Energy Supplementary Planning document demonstrates that the wind resource in Cumbria is greatest on exposed upland sites and along the coast. The County Wind Resource Map confirms that the windiest places include the fell tops and ridge crests in the Lake District, Howgill Fells and the North Pennines and around St Bees Head and other western coastal locations. There are also potentially attractive sites on Orton and Shap Fells in the A6/M6 corridor, which includes a grid line. Small-scale installations could, in theory, be sited in many locations throughout the county.
In June 2009 there were 17 operational wind farms in Cumbria with 99 turbines and a rated capacity of only 78MW – under 0.8MW per turbine. The vast majority were in the western coastal zone. A further 4 schemes with 13 turbines and an additional 27MW rated capacity had been approved, 12 turbines with 28.5MW capacity were under consideration, and 27 with 72MW capacity had been refused planning permission and were under appeal. Small scale installations of less than 50kW capacity contributed only 0.03MW in 200817. Clearly, these
installations exploited only a fraction of the theoretically available potential. Government expects onshore wind to contribute a significant part of the growth it is seeking in renewable energy, so that pressure for additional installations is to be expected18.
Environmental and Social factors. Although Government expects a significant growth in onshore wind energy, it is policy not to sanction large and conspicuous developments in nationally designated landscapes (National Parks and AONBs) or Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). As a large part of Cumbria is designated, this excludes such developments from parts of the Solway Coast and the Arnside and Silverdale shores of Morecambe Bay, almost the whole Lake District, the North Pennines, the western margins of the Yorkshire Dales (including the southern half of the Howgill Fells) and scientifically important areas on Orton Fells. These areas have been excluded from the Areas of Search in the Cumbria and Lake District Joint Structure Plan. In addition a substantial area, including the north Howgills, the area around (Tebay) Borrowdale and Bretherdale, the Mallerstang valley and Orton Fells is currently under scrutiny for National Park/AONB extensions. If these areas are designated, there would also be a presumption against onshore wind farms within them.
Areas outside these designated landscapes may none the less be sensitive to wind energy developments and the Cumbria Wind Energy SPD has sought to evaluate the capacity of areas throughout the county to accommodate them. It implies that onshore wind developments are most appropriate in upland areas north east of Carlisle (but where proximity to the Ministry of Defence Spadeadam facility may constrain developments), the coastal zone north of Barrow and east and north-east of Workington and the uplands east of the M6 between Carlisle and Penrith and between the Kent and Lune valleys. Most of the installed capacity is within these areas. Small-scale wind installations are likely to be more acceptable in sensitive landscapes, if no more than 15m high and in groups of not more than 2 or 3 masts, and this is where community-owned or farm-scale developments may find a place. However, even in the restricted search area, there is strong local community objection to on-shore wind farms.
Economic and Infrastructure factors. Three main concerns are often raised by the community with regard to onshore wind farms in Cumbria:
• they adversely affect the tourist industry (a major component of the county’s economy) because they diminish the attractiveness of the open upland landscape for which the county is widely prized; • the visual intrusion and noise diminish property values, and noise can affect health; • wind farms are ineffective because of intermittency and the consequent need for ‘back up’ fossil fuel-powered stations on stand by.
On-shore wind energy is stated to cost 3.7pence per kWh, or 6.8p if the stand-by generation is included, as against 2.2p for Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) plant (not including CO2 costs)19. A 1kW micro-wind generator
costs about £5,000 to install, though this cost is projected to decline to around £3,100 by 202020: the advent of
feed-in tariffs is likely to increase the attractiveness of such domestic-scale installations.
Like nuclear new build, a major expansion of onshore wind in Cumbria would bring a need for new grid connections in many areas, and strengthened capacity in some existing grid lines. Access road networks would be needed, with possible impact on ecology and hydrology. Small-scale installations associated with communities or individual properties would also require linkage. The Government has recently announced commitment to an enhanced electricity transmission network, and to a ‘smart grid’ able to accommodate small-scale distributed generation21.
Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. Design and construction phases for large wind farms often involve specialised companies from outside the sub-region. The large-scale on-shore installations in Cumbria use imported
turbines and rotors, and have been built by companies based outside the county, albeit with some local labour. There has been negligible manufacture of components in the county, and while some local firms have contributed to installation (including the construction of access tracks), much of the employment generated has been outside. The installations have also largely been serviced by external companies, although local firms have also been involved in operation and maintenance. Local benefits have come to farmers and other landowners who have received rentals for their land, although other local businesses linked to tourism and owners of local properties have expressed concern over potential adverse impacts. Taken as a whole, large onshore wind farms have brought only limited benefit to the Cumbrian economy.
Small-scale installations on or near domestic, community and commercial buildings have so far only penetrated a part of the potential market (0.03MW installed capacity according to the 4NW review). The advent of feed-in tariffs and a ‘smart grid’ should boost the domestic market, and there appears to be a vacant niche for medium sized community-owned installations with perhaps 50kW-1MW installed capacity, particularly now that financial incentives are to be improved. Such installations, because of their smaller size, are unlikely to attract the opposition encountered by big onshore wind farms. There are some local firms (e.g. Sundog Energy of Matterdale and Turbine Services Limited in Lorton) which might develop this market and bring benefit through employment in installation and servicing22. It is estimated, based on existing
installations, that approximately 0.5 jobs are created per 1MW of installed capacity.
Prospective Contribution to Cumbria’s Renewable Energy targets. The technology for onshore wind
energy is already available and turbine sizes and efficiencies have been increasing. Currently, the limiting factors are planning consent, grid connection and finance. The planning process should be speeded up under the 2008 Planning Act, which requires the Government to produce National Policy Statements (NPS) which are subject to parliamentary approval. A suite of energy NPSs including for renewable energy are to be published for consultation in autumn 2009. Once formally designated, these will guide the new Infrastructure Planning Commission (IPC) when examining new proposals23. Local Planning Inquiries will be restricted
to evaluating the acceptability of local impact and the scope for mitigation. However this machinery has yet to be tested and the major Opposition parties have said they will amend the legislation if returned to power.
Development is also highly dependent on the financial markets and Government incentives including the RO. The intermittent nature of the resource and the development of more constant renewable sources may reduce its relative attractiveness as time passes. Wind farms have a design life of about 25 years, and by 2050 some installations may have been reconstituted or decommissioned.
In 2009 the operational and consented wind farms in Cumbria had a rated capacity of 105MW, and if 50% of the outstanding planning applications and appeals succeed this would add 50MW capacity, although not all of it would be in place within 2010. Taking the 2003 Axis study and the 4NW Report together, a Cumbrian potential of 200-355MW in 2020 emerges. Re-powering existing installations with larger turbines might add 50MW, although this might well also demand enhanced grid connections. There are major uncertainties, but it seems not unrealistic to set the figures at:
By 2010 - 115MW (57 jobs) By 2020 - 250MW (112 jobs) By 2050 - 400MW (80 jobs)
In addition, if 1% of Cumbrian homes were to be supplied by community-level or individually-owned small scale installations this would mean a further 4.1MW of installed capacity. 17 4NW Final Report. Towards Broad Areas for Renewable Energy Development, 2009. 18 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapter 2. 19 Data from Royal Academy of Engineering in association with PB Power. 20 Element Energy & TNS, 2007. The growth potential of microgeneration in England, Wales and Scotland. 21 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapter 4. 22 Sundog Energy. Clean Energy Solutions for a Greener World. Brochure with details of Proven wind turbine systems. See also 4NW loc. cit. 23 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapter 4.
.0 Estimated potential for
renewables in Cumbria
. Offshore wind
Potential. The offshore wind resource is stronger and more consistent than over land, and around Cumbria the seas are shallow, making it relatively easy to install masts for wind turbines. As at March 2009 292 turbines with an installed capacity of 1,190MW were either operational or consented. Projections suggest that the potential is for up to 10 major wind farms, each of 100 turbines of 3-5MW capacity delivering 3 to 5GW. Nationally, the Government seeks a very substantial expansion, and is proposing
enhanced financial incentives to developers who place orders for new schemes in the coming two years25.
24 This figure is likely only to be realised if existing sites with low-capacity turbines are upgraded. 24 The existing 99 turbines onshore in Cumbria have an average capacity of only 0.78MW.
25 UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009, Chapters 2 and 3. Image: E.ON UK plc
Wind Energy Development: Operational
1 Oldside 2 Siddick 3 Winscales 4 Great Orton 5 Swineside* 6 Newlands Mill 7 Haverigg 8 Lowca 9 Harlock Hill 10 Kirkby Moor 11 Lambrigg Fell 12 Far Old Park 13 Black Sail Hut* 14 Wharrels Hill 15 Voridian 16 High Pow 20 Winscales Moor
Wind Energy Development: Approved
17 Barnscar Fold* 18 Pirelli 19 Laverock Howe* 34 Hellrigg 35 Flimby 39 Armistead 42 Fairfield Farm
Wind Energy Development: Application
37 Tallentire Hill 43 Threapland Lees
Wind Energy Development: Appeal
33 Grise 38 Berrier Hill 40 Newlands Farm 41 Sillfield
Wind Energy Development: Refused
21 Hlltop
22 Winash Wind Farm 23 Drigg 24 Fairfield Farm (2) 25 Gunson Height 26 Lowick Beacon 27 Lowick Common 28 Barkin House 29 Firbank Fell 30 Hoff Moor 31 Brownrigg Hall
*Schemes within the Lake District National Park are small scale providing power to individual buildings only
B5305 A5092 A 59 5 A59 0 B528 1 A 5093 A684 A6 M6 M6 A685 A7 A7 A66 A66 A69 A689 A596 A595 A596 A66 A66 B5295 A 595 B5344 A594 A59 1 Bassenthwaite Thirlmere Ullswater Haweswater Grasmere Rydal Windermere Coniston Wastwater Devoke Water Ennerdale Buttermere Crummock Loweswater Derwent Water Bootle Haverigg Grizebeck Pennington
Penny Bridge Milnthorpe
Levens
Grange-over -sands
Barrow-in-Furness
Ulverston Kirkby Lonsdale
Millom Cumwhinton Calthwaite Caldbeck Bothel Lazonby Langwathby Distington St Bees Seascale Gosforth Tebay Kirkby Stephen Shap Brough Broughton Cockermouth Kendal Windermere Sedbergh Appleby Penrith Whitehaven Keswick Cleator Moor Egremont Bowness -on-Solway Abbeytown Dalston Aspatria High Hesket Broughton Great Clifton Bewcastle Hallbankgate Maryport Silloth Workington Wigton Carlisle Alston Brampton Longtown Coniston Askam Dalton Ambleside Sellafield Bootle Haverigg Grizebeck Pennington
Penny Bridge Milnthorpe
Levens
Grange-over -sands
Barrow-in-Furness
Ulverston Kirkby Lonsdale
Millom Cumwhinton Calthwaite Caldbeck Bothel Lazonby Langwathby Distington St Bees Seascale Gosforth Tebay Kirkby Stephen Shap Brough Broughton Cockermouth Kendal Windermere Sedbergh Appleby Penrith Whitehaven Keswick Cleator Moor Egremont Bowness -on-Solway Abbeytown Dalston Aspatria High Hesket Broughton Great Clifton Bewcastle Hallbankgate Maryport Silloth Workington Wigton Carlisle Alston Brampton Longtown Coniston Askam Dalton Ambleside Sellafield 40 33 38 41 39 17 19 42 35 34 18 6 5 16 14 15 20 2 1 3 8 13 7 12 9 10 11 4 43 37 21 31 22 28 26 25 27 29 30 23 Key
Lake District National Park Yorkshire Dales National Park Solway Coast AONB North Pennines AONB Arnside and Silverdale AONB
Frontiers of the Roman Empire: Hadrian’s Wall - visual envelope St Bees Heritage Coastline Cumbria County Council Boundary Wind Speed > 6.5m/second Please note that in some areas it may be technically feasible to operate
wind turbines at speeds of less than 6.5m/second. This map is indicative only.
Wind energy sites in Cumbria,
October 00
Cumbria wind energy
Supplementary Planning Document
0
Geographical distribution. Two main search areas wereidentified in the 4NW/Arup study - the approaches to the Solway and off Barrow - and the existing and planned developments are in these areas. Further areas have been identified by the Crown Estates off the coast between Whitehaven and the Isle of Man. All have shallow water and are far enough offshore not to interfere with any possible tidal barrages.
Environmental and Social factors. Offshore wind farms do not encounter the same level of opposition from local communities that has proved a major constraint on-shore. Indeed many people find them an attractive element in the marine landscape. They can clearly restrict navigation and fishing, but the two search areas in Cumbria could be accommodated with only small changes to shipping routes. Marine biologists have noted that wind farms can be of value as sanctuaries and nursery areas for marine life26. On the other hand, there is concern
over the acoustic impact of offshore wind farms, especially during construction, on cetaceans which are highly sensitive to underwater sound27. In the past there has been concern
over bird strike (and both Morecambe Bay and the Solway are internationally important for wintering wildfowl), but this now receives less emphasis. The search areas avoid the MOD firing ranges off Drigg Point. As a whole, the Cumbrian offshore locations may not encounter significant social or environmental problems.
Economic and Infrastructure factors. Like wind farms on-shore, offshore installations operate intermittently (30%-33% load factor), and being in a more hostile environment are more costly to construct and maintain. Problems seem also to have arisen with turbine gearboxes, making it necessary to refurbish many existing installations. Offshore wind farms also require new grid connectors, road access to service points, and servicing infrastructure. The cost of electricity generated from them is said to be around 5.5p per kWh, rising to 7.2p if the back-up generators (probably using fossil fuel) are included. Contribution to the Cumbrian economy. As onshore, much depends on whether inward investment can be attracted for manufacturing locally. At present, offshore wind farms are expected to be built by firms based outside Cumbria, using turbines, masts and other materials manufactured elsewhere. The BWEA Wind at Work report demonstrates that whilst 15.1 jobs can be created annually per 1MW, 80% are typically in the manufacturing heartlands of Denmark, Germany and Spain.
However, while experience elsewhere suggests it will be difficult, serious deployment for the Round 3 Crown Estates call in the Irish Sea might provide the impetus needed, particularly since there is considerable Cumbrian expertise in the oil and gas industries. EoN currently employ some 40 FTEs in Workington for the Robin Rigg 180MW facility, now under construction, and it is hoped this may be the base for further Scottish sea developments. Some employment will certainly also continue during the operational phase, but this is likely to be even more limited than with onshore wind. Generally speaking, offshore wind farms are unlikely to bring significant economic benefit to Cumbria unless there is investment in manufacture and supportive infrastructure in the ports of Barrow and Whitehaven28.
Given that a large proportion of the remaining jobs will be from outside the sub region, this study uses the BWEA job cumulative of 0.4 jobs per 1MW installed capacity. Prospective Contribution to Cumbria’s Renewable Energy targets. The technology for offshore wind farms is well established, though turbine size and efficiency continue to increase. The limiting factors are likely to be finance, influenced by Government policy (such as the level of the RO and other economic instruments) and the relative attractiveness of other sources. Planning consent is not such a severe problem as on-shore, though the extension of the grid network is proving a limiting factor in some regions: Government now seeks urgent action to improve connection arrangements. Taking all factors into account, it seems clear that offshore wind will lead the growth in national and regional renewable energy production in the next decade or longer.
The 4NW Report suggested a potential installed capacity of 1730MW by 2020. This is likely to be surpassed. The suggested scenario, taking the offshore search areas as a whole and assuming installations under construction are completed on time, is:
2010 - 3 wind farms of 90 turbines rated at 240MW (96 jobs)
2020 - 7 wind farms of total of 400 turbines delivering ca 2GW (720 jobs)
2050 - 10 wind farms with 700 turbines and 2.4-3.5GW capacity (384-560 jobs)
Taking onshore and offshore wind energy together, if these projections are anywhere near realistic, by 2010 Cumbria will have a total wind energy capacity in excess of 300MW, rising to well over 2GW by 2020 and at least 3GW by 2050. Actual yields to the grid will be about one third of this capacity.
.0 Estimated potential for
renewables in Cumbria
26 C Hooper. Presentation to Members Conference. Cumbria Wildlife Trust, March 2009.
27 E.g.Thomsen, F et al (2006). Effects of offshore wind farms on marine mammals and fish. Biola, Hamburg, Germany on behalf of Cowrie Ltd. 28 Simon Sjenitzer. Note dated 5 June 2009.
. Hydropower
Potential. In Scotland, hydropower currently provides 1.33GW of electricity, with
a 100-MW scheme under construction at Glen Doe. Cumbria, with comparable terrain and rainfall, could have potential for substantial schemes, for example in Lakeland valleys, the Lune gorge and the Eden around Nunnery Walks-Armathwaite. There is also considerable potential for small-scale schemes not involving large dams. In Scotland it has been estimated that in aggregate these might provide as much as 650MW capacity. Cumbria has similar terrain and a substantial number of existing weirs and dams which could provide hydro power with little additional ecological effect on the rivers.
The 4NW Report recorded an installed capacity of
2.09MW in 2009, and the Axis study listed 20 potential sites with a total contribution of 5.2MW, although it recognised that about 0.6MW of this capacity is unlikely to be developed. Lancaster University Renewable Energy Group (LUREG) has identified some 393 weirs, scattered throughout Cumbria, and 73 dams concentrated in the Lake District and North Pennines29. There are also a few
large dams in the Lake District (Thirlmere, Hawes Water, Wet Sleddale) which are required to release compensation water to rivers. All these should be evaluated for their energy-generating potential. Many are located close enough to communities for the energy derived from low-head hydro to be used to power them directly. Geographical distribution. There are currently 15 operational hydro power sites in Cumbria with an installed capacity of 2.4MW, over half at 5 sites (Coniston, Backbarrow, Glenridding, Lowood and Lodore). A further 5 schemes with a capacity of 0.65MW are likely to be operational by the end of 2010. Cumbria is already a centre of excellence for hydro technology, notably through Gilkes and Inter-Hydro in Kendal; Turbine Services Ltd. in Lorton; Ellergreen Hydro at Burneside, Kendal; Grant Ltd. in Penrith; Agrilek in Barrow and Lakeland Marine in Levens. There is a largely north-west based supply chain including a capacity to provide complex castings. Askam Construction is a specialist hydro-engineer capable of managing several installations a year. The Joule Centre and Lancaster University are currently undertaking a detailed study of hydro potential in the North West.
Environmental and Social factors. It is inconceivable that large-scale hydro-power schemes involving the damming of valleys and submergence of ‘cultural landscapes’ could be contemplated in the Lake District National Park or other areas of prized Cumbrian scenery. Environmental considerations are almost certain to concentrate attention on small scale developments with minimal scenic and ecological impact.
The EU Water Framework Directive requires action to prevent the further deterioration of fresh waters and to achieve good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. This requirement is incompatible with developments that imperil fish or aquatic invertebrates. However small-scale
and low-head hydro power systems using existing dams and weirs are likely to be compatible with the Directive, and the Environment Agency is issuing guidance for would-be developers30. At all sites, measures to safeguard aquatic
life and avoid interference with salmon and trout runs will be needed. Each scheme will need to be evaluated on its merits (with the Environment Agency in the lead). Economic and Infrastructure factors. Capital costs of hydro power are high per unit of electricity supplied, although hydro installations have long life. Small-scale hydro schemes in the 1 to 500kW range cost £2,000 to £5,000 per kW of capacity31. Although the amount of power
generated at each location would be modest, because many installations are located in remote places, new ‘smart grid’ connections are likely to be required. Contribution to Cumbrian economy. There is potential for local employment (with up to 200-300 people in the supply chain for a substantial project). Cumbrian firms have considerable expertise in the design, construction and operation of small-scale hydro power, and while the total scale of this sector will be small by comparison with wind energy, it has the potential to support a number of jobs in the county, partly in manufacture but even more in installation and servicing. Landowners and communities are likely also to benefit from wayleaves and rentals. Gilkes in Kendal employ approximately 130 FTE’s and are involved in manufacturing hydro generators and pumps. Furthermore, there is already a significant cluster of consultancies specialising in design, installation and maintenance, especially in the south of the county. Whilst electric output is comparatively low, there is a relatively high benefit to job creation, obviously depending on the number of installations throughout the region as a whole. Based on the current employment pattern, future potential is assessed at 50 jobs per 1MW installed capacity. Because a substantial part of the economic benefit could accrue to firms based in the county, hydro is an important sector for encouragement through Cumbria Vision and the proposed Energy Agency for the county (CASE - Cumbria Action for Sustainable Energy).
Prospective Contribution to Cumbria’s Renewable Energy targets. The current 2.4MW capacity is likely to rise to 3MW by 2010. Where weirs and other structures are available, further installations could proceed reasonably swiftly, taking only two to three years from planning to completion. The 4NW study suggested a potential for 14MW capacity yielding 55GWh/yr.
If these estimates are correct, hydro-power is likely to make a modest, albeit valuable, contribution to renewable energy in Cumbria. Likely figures are:
By 2010 - 3MW (150 jobs) By 2020 - 6MW (270 jobs) By 2050 - 10 MW (200 jobs)
.0 Estimated potential for
renewables in Cumbria
. Tidal schemes
Potential. Tidal range barrages are proven technology (demonstrated, for example,
at la Rance in Brittany where a 240MW barrage has been in operation for 40 years). They have high capital cost but are then very efficient energy capture devices. Yields depend critically on design, the maximum output being obtained in a two-way mode, harnessing both ebb and flow. The UK has about 48% of the estimated European resource32,
the Severn estuary alone having the potential for up to 8.6GW of installed capacity, meeting 5% of UK electricity demand. The Government is evaluating a number of alternative Severn Estuary tidal schemes, costing between £21billion and £2.3billion33.
29 George Aggidis of Lancaster University: David Rowlands, Integrating Renewable Energy Technology could create competitive advantage for Cumbria. 30 Environment Agency News Release, 7 August 2009. 31 Information from Mark Cropper, Ellergreen Hydro.
32 Richard Burrows, University of Liverpool. Submission to Science and Technology Committee Inquiry into Renewable Energy Generation Technologies. 33 The UK Renewable Energy Strategy: Cm 7686, July 2009: DECC (2009) Severn Tidal Power Feasibility Study: Government response to Phase One consultation.
