1401.pdf

-

m

T A B L E O F

C

O N T E N T S

A b

str a ct

I

ntr o

d

u ct

i

o n

B

a c

k

_gr ou n

d

an

d T h

e o r

_y

M

et

h

o

d

s

R

e s u

l

ts

D i

s c u s s

i

o n

C

o n clu s

i

o n s

R

e co

m m

e n

d

at

i

o n s

R

e

f

e r e n ce s

5

7

1 1

1

8

2

1

2 4

2

6

2

7

2 8

A

PP E N D I X A

A

P P

E N D I

X

B

A P P E N D I X C

A

P P

E N D I X D

F i g

ur es an

d T

a

b l

e s

S

a

m

_p

l

i

n

_{g D}

ata

/

M

o

d

el

I

n

_p

ut

P

a r a

m

ete rs

M

ete o r olo

_{g i}

c a

l D

ata

I N D E

X

O F F I

G

U

R

E S

F i g

ur e

1

:

D

u ke

F

o r e st

S i

te

F

i

_gu r e 2:

S

o u r c e T o

w

e r

F i g

u r e 3:

S

o u r c e E

m

is s

i

o n

Si

te s

F i g

u r e

4

:

F T I R D

ata s et

M

o

d

e

l P

r e

d i

ct

i

on s

F

i

_gur e 5:

T

e

d

la r «

P

o

i

nt

S

a

m

_{p l}

e

D

ata s et

M

o del Pr e

d i

ct

i

o n s

F

i

_gur e 6: I

S C

2 a n

d

I

S C

3

A

r e a v s.

V

olu

m

e

S

o u r c e

C

o niigu r at io n s,

F T I

R D

ata s et

F i g

u r e

7

:

A E

R

M

O D A

r e a v s.

V

o

l

u

m

e

S

o u r c e

C

o n

fi g

u r at

i

o n s_,

F

T

I

R D

a_ta s et

F i g

ur e 8: I

S C

2 and I

S C

3

A

r e a v s.

V

olu

m

e

S

o u r c e

C

o nfi gu r at

io

n s

T

e

d

la r ®

D

ata set

F i g

u re

9

:

A E

R

M

O D A

r e a v s.

V

o

l

u

m

e

S

o u r c e

C

o n

fi g

u r at

i

o n s_,

T

e

d l

ar ®

D

ata set

I N D E

X O

F T

A

B L E

S

T

a

b

le

1

:

_S

ou rc e

C h

e

m ic a

_{l E}

m

_i

s s

i

o n

R

ate s

T

ab le 2:

M

ete o rolo

_{g y V}

a r

ia

b

les

T

a

b

le 3:

L i

n e a r

R

e

_g

r ess

i

o n

R

es ul ts

f

o r I

S C

volu

m

e a n

d A E R

M

O D

v olu

m

e

S

o u r ce

P

re

d i

ct

io n s

T a

b

le 4: L in e a r

R

e

_g

re ss

i

on

R

e s ul ts

f

o r

A

r e a

P

r e

d i

ct

i

o n s_;

O P

-F

T CR

d

_at_{a s et}

A C K

N

O

W

L E D G E

M

E N T S

F

i

n an c

i

a

l

s u

_{p p}

o rt

f

o r t

h i

s _pr o

j

e ct

w

a_s

_p

r o v

i d

e

d b

_y t

h

e

O

a

k R i d g

e In st

i

tute

f

o r

S

c

i

en c e a n

d

E

d

uc at

i

on

(

O R

I

SE

₎

,

U

.

S

D

e

p

a rt

m

e nt o

f E

ne rg y

,

O

a

k R i d g

e, Te nn e ss e e, u n

d

e r t

h

e

In

d

u str

i

a

l

H

_y

_{g i}

e n e

G

r_a

d

u ate

F

e

l l

o

w

s

hi p P

r o

_g

r a

m

.

I w

ou

l

d

li k

e to t

h

a n

k D

r.

J

os e

p h J

.

V

er v

i

e r,

T

ec

h

n

i

ca

l D i

r e ctor o

f

t

h

e

U

.

S A

r

m

y

'

s

E dg

e

w

o o

d R

e s e a r c

h

_,

D

e v e

l

o

_{p m}

ent an

d E

n

_gi

n e e r

i

n_g

C

ente r

, an

d D

r .

C ly d

e

F

r a n

k

e

,

D

e

_p

ut

_{y A}

s s

i

s sta nt

S

ecr eta r

_y

o

f

En e r

_g

_y,

f

o r t

h

e

i

r s u

p p

ort o

f

m

y re s e ar c

h

at t

h

e

C

ente r

f

or

N B C E

n v

i

ron

m

enta

l T

e c

h

n o

l

o

_gy

I

w

o u

l d l i k

e to ex

_p

r e s s

m y

s

i

nc e r e

_g

r at

i

tu

d

e to

M

r

H

o

w

a r

d

Fe

l d m

a n_,

S

e n

i

o r

E

n v

i

r o n

m

e nta

l S

c

i

e nt

i

st o

f

t

h

e

A

m

e r

i

c an

P

etr o

l

e u

m

I

n st

i

tute an

d

M

r

R

us s L e e o

f

N

O A A

_,

U

.

S

.

E

.

P

.

A

.

f

or t

h

e

i

r

i

n

d i

s

p

e ns

i b l

e

h

e

lp

t

h

rou

g h

out t

h i

s

p

ro

j

ect.

W

i

t

h

out t

h

e

i

r

k

n o

w l

e

dg

e_,

k i

n

d

ne s s,

i

n s

i g h

t an

d

c

h

a r

i

t

y

, t

h i

s

p

ro

j

e ct

w

o u

l d h

av e

b

e e n

m

u

c

h m

or e

d i f fi

c u

l

t.

A d d i

t

i

on a

l

t

h

a n

k

s

_g

o to a

U

t

h

e

_p

r o

f

e s s

i

ona

l

s

w h

o to o

k

t

im

e to e x

_{p l}

a

i

n a n

d d i

s cu s s

c o n c e

_p

ts a n

d i d

e a s

w i

t

h

m

e

, es

p

ec

i

a

l ly

e a r

l y

on

i

n t

h

e

l

ear n

i

n

g

c u rve

! T h

e s e

p

e o

p l

e

i

n c

l

u

d

e

M

s

J

u

d y

Z

w i

c

k

e r o

f R

e

m

ote

S

e n s

i

n

_{g A i}

r,

M

r . J

im

Pa u

m i

e r o

f

Pa c

i fi

c

E

n v

i

ron

m

enta

l S

e r v

i

c e s, an

d

o

f

c ou r se

m

y

a

d

v

i

s or ,

D

r.

L

or

i T

o

d d

,

w h

o

h

e

l p

e

d m

e s e e t

h

e

b i g p i

ctu r_e.

Sp

e c

i

a

l

t

h

an

k

s

_g

o to

M

r.

D

o n

G

a

m i l

e s

,

D O E

.

T h

an

k

s

f

or c a

h

n

i

n

g

m

e

d

o

w

n an

d

ta

lk i

n

g

m

e t

h

r o u

_{g h i}

t.

O f

c o u r s e, t

h

e

l

a rge st t

h

a n

k

s go to

m

y

M

o

m

,

P

at

P ip

e r,

f

o r

h

e r su p

p

o rt a n

d

A

F I E L

D ST

U D

Y

E

V A

L

U

A

T I

O

N

O F S

H

O R

T-T E R

M

R

E

F I

N

E

D G A

U

S SI

A

N

D I SPE R SI O

N

M

O D E L S

A l li

s o n

R

.

P i p

er

D

e_pa rt

m

e nt o

f E

n v

ir o n

m

e nta

l S

c

ie

nc es an

d E

n

_{g i}

ne e r

i

n

_g

Sc

h

o o

l

o

f P

u

b li

c

H

e a

lt

h

U

n

iv e r s

it

_y

o

f

N

o rt

h C

a ro

l i

n a

C

ha_pel

H

i ll_,

N

o rt

h C

a r o

Un a

2 7 5 9 9-7 4 0 0

A B ST R A C T

A

trac e r stu

dy w

a s c on

d

u _cte

d

at t

h

e

D

u

k

e

F

o re st

Sit

e

i

n

C h

a

_p

e

l H i l l

_,

N

ort

h C

a ro

U

n a

in

J

a n u ar

_y

_,

19 9 5

to e v a

lu

ate the a

b il i

t

y

o

f

t

h

r e e short-_ter

m

r e

fi

ne

d

G

au ssian

di

s

_p

er s

io n

m

o

d

e

l

s to

_p

re

d ict t

h

e

f

ate o

f

v o

l

u

m

e s o u r c e e

m i

s s

i

o ns u n

d

e r

fi

e

l d

stu

d

_y c o n

d it

io n s

.

St u

d y

p

a rt

i

c

i p

a n_{t s}

in c

lu

d

e

_d

th_e

A

m

e r

i

c a n

P

etr o

l

e u

m I

n st

it

ute

(

A PI

)

_, t

h

e

U

n

it

e

d St

ate_s

E

n v

ir o n

m

e nta

l

Pr ote ct

io

n

A g

e n c

_y

(

E

P

A

)

_, t

h

e

U

n

i

te

d St

ate s

D

e

_p

a rt

m

ent o

f E

ne r

_g

_y

(

D O E

₎

, t

h

e

U

n

i

v e r s

it

y

o

f

N

o rt

h C

ar o

l i

n a at

C h

a

p

e

l

H

i l l

(

U

N

C

)

, a n

d p

r

iv

ate c o nsu

lt

i

n

g

fi

r

m

s.

T h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s eva

lu

ate

d w

e re

I

n

d

u st

ri

a

l So u

rc e

C

o

m p l

e x

-

Sh

_ort

T

_{e r}

m

_versi_{o n s}

2

an

d

3

(

I S C 2

,

I SC

3

)

an

d

t

h

e

A

m

e

ri

can

M

eteo r o

l

o

g i

c a

l So

c

i

et

y

(

A

M

S

)

/

Env

ir o n

m

enta

l

Prote ct

io

n

A g

enc

_y

(

EP A

)

R

e

_g

u

l

ator

_y

M

_o

_d

_e

l I m p

r_{o v e}

m

_{e nt}

_C

o

m m it t

e e

(

A E R

M

I C

)

_m

_o

_d

e

l

_,

A E R

M

O D

.

A l l

thr ee

m

o

d

e

ls a r e

b

as e

d

o n t

h

e ste a

d y

-state

G

a u ssia n

p l

u

m

e

d i

s

p

e r s

io n

e

_q

u at

i

on,

w h i

c

h p

re

d i

cts c o n ce ntrat

io n s a

t

d

o

w

n

w in

d

re ce

p

to r

lo

c at

i

on s

w h

e n

i

nte

g

r ate

d

o ve r t

h

e

di

stan ce

b

e_t

w

_{e e}n _t

_h

_{e s o u}r _{c e a n}

_d

re c e

_p

tor.

C h

e

m i

c a

ls

w

e r e r e

l

eas e

d

at

k

n o

w

n

r ate s an

d m

e a su r e

m

en_ts

w

e re ta

k

en at v a

ri

ou s

_p

o

i

nts

i

n t

h

e stu

dy fi

e

l d

u s

i

n

_{g T}

e

d l

_{a r ®}

b

a

_g

p

o

in

t s a

m p l i

n

_g

an

d

o

_p

en

-p

at

h F

ou

ri

er

T

ransfor

m I

n

fi

T

h

e

O

P-F T I

R

_{c o}

m

pari s o n s

w

e r e c o ndu cted

b

_y c o nfi guri n_g the

m

o dels to _pred ict _point

c on ce ntr at

i

o n s a

l

o n

_g

t

h

e

F T

I

R

s

_p

e ctro

m

ete r o

_p

e n

-p

at

h

s, t

h

e n

p

at

h

-

i

_nte

gr at

i

n

_g

t

h

e

p

r e

d i

c t

i

o ns o v e r t

h

e s a

m p l

e

d

t

im

e

i

nte rva

l

s.

T h

e

T

e

d l

a r ®

b

a

g p

o

i

nt sa

m p l

e c o

m p

a

ri

s o n s

w

e r e c o n

d

u cte

d b y

c o n

fi g

u r

i

n

_g

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

sto

_p

r e

d i

ct

_p

o

i

n t con c e nt rat

i

o n s at t

h

e

T

e

d l

_{a r ®}

po

i

nt s a

m

_p

l

e

l

o c at

i

o n s

f

o r e a c

h fi

v e-

_{m i}

n ute

i

nte r v a

l d

u r

i

n_g t

h

e _po

i

nt s a

m

_p

l i

n_g o n e-

h

_{o u r}

t

i

m

e

_p

e

ri

o

d

.

T h

e

m

o

d

e

l p

r e

d i

ct

i

o ns

w

er e t

h

e n t

im

e -_{a v e r a}

g

e

d f

or co

m p

a

ri

son

w i

t

h

t

h

e

T e

d l

a r ® o n e-

h

_our

p

o

i

nt s a

m p l

e s. T

h

e c

h

e

m i

c a

l

u s e

d i

n t

hi

s stu

d

y a n a

l

ys

i

s

w

as s u

lf

u r

h

e x a

fl

uo

ri

d

e

(

SF

g

)

.

T h

e stu

d y f

o u n

d

t

h

at

I S C

a n

d A E R

M

O D

u n

d

e r

_p

re

d i

cte

d

t

h

e

m

e asu r e

d

c on c entr at

i

on s

f

o r

e a c

h d

ata s et c o

l l

e cte

d h

i t

h

e

fi

e

l d

stu

d

_y I

SC

a n

d

A E

R

M

O D

e a c

h

u n

d

e r

_p

re

d i

cte

d

t

h

e

O

P

-F T I

R d

ata set

b

_y a

f

a cto r o

f

a

_{p p}

rox

i m

ate

l y 1

.

6

. I

SC

un

d

e r

p

re

d i

cte

d

t

h

e

T

e

dl

a r ®

d

atas et

b y

a

_{p p}

rox

i m

ate

l y 2

.

1

,

w h i l

e

A E R

M

O D

u n

d

er

p

re

d i

cte

d by

a

f

actor o

f

a

p p

r ox

i m

ate

ly 2

.

6

.

R

e

_g

ar

d l

e s s o

f

s our c e c on

fi g

u ra t

i

on or

m

e asur e

m

e nt te c

h

n

i q

u e u s e

_d

, un

d

e r

-p

r e

d i

ct

i

o n

w i

t

h

r e s

_p

e ct to t

h

e

m

e a s u r e

d

c o n c e ntr at

i

o n

w

a s c o n s

i

ste nt

_{l y}

o

b

s e r v e

d

.

T h i

s

i

n

d i

c ate s t

h

at

s a

f

et

_{y f}

a cto r s o r o t

h

e r c o r r e ct

i

o ns

m

a_y

b

e n e c ess a r_y

i

n

_p

r e

d i

ct

i

n

_g

c o nta

m i

nant

c o nc entr at

i

on s over t

h

e

di

sta n c es e xa

m i

n e

d i

n t

h i

s stu

d

_y

_;

i

.e._,

i

n t

h

e hea r

fi

e

l d

o

f l

e s s t

h

a n

I N T R O D U C T I O N

A i

r

_q

u a

li

t

_{y m}

o

d

e

l

s a r e

d

e s

i g

ne

d

to s

i

m

u

l

ate t

h

e tr a n s

_p

ort a n

d f

at e o

f

con ta

m i

n ant s

i

n _t

h

e

at

m

o s

_{p h}

e r e.

T h

e

U

.

S

. En v

i

r o n

m

enta

l P

r ote ct

i

o n

A g

e nc

y

r e c o

m m

en

d

s t

h

e us e o

f

a

i

r

q

u a

l i

t

_y

m

o

d

e

l

s to

_p

r e

di

ct t

h

e s

h

o rt an

d l

on

_g

-_{r a n}

g

e

f

ate o

f i

n

_d

u str

i

a

l

e

m i

s s

i

o n s

f

o r

r e

_g

u

l

ato r

_y

,

p

u

b l i

c

p

o

l i

cy a n

d i

n

d

u str

i

a

l p l

a n n

i

n

g p

ur

p

ose s

^"^

.

V

a

li d

at

i

on o

f

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s '

p

r e

d i

ct

i

v e a

b i l i

t

_{y i}

sn e c e s s a r_y t o e n sur e t

h

at t

h

e

_g

o a

l

s o

f

e nv

i

r o n

m

e_{n t}a

l p

r ote ct

i

o n a n

d

p

u

b l i

c

h

e a

l

t

h

a re e

f f

e ct

i

ve

_ly

a

d d

re ss e

d

.

I

t

i

s

im p

orta nt t

h

at t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s n ot o n

l y p

re

d i

ct

h i g h

c onc entrat

i

ons

w i

t

h

reas ona

b

l

e a c cu ra c

_{y b}

ut t

h

at t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s

h

ave an a c cu r ate

"

m

o

d

e

l

-p h y

s

i

c s"

b

a s

i

s_,

w hi

c

_{h i}

nc r e a s e s c o n

fi d

enc e

i

n t

h

e

i

r a

_{p p l i}

c at

i

o n to

m

o

d

e

l i

n

_g

s c e n ar

i

o s o uts

i d

e t

h

e e v a

l

u ate

d

r an

_g

e^.

P

rev

i

ous

fi

e

l d

a n

d

stat

i

st

i

c a

l

stu

di

e s

h

ave

c o

m p

a r e

d

o

b

s e rv e

d

an

d

_pr e

d i

cte

d

c onc e ntr at

i

o n s

w h i

c

h w

e r e _pa

i

r e

d i

n t

i m

e,

b

ut n ot

n e c es sa r

i l

_y

i

n s

_p

a c e_; a n

d

n ot ove r

d i

sta n c e s o

f l

e s s t

h

a n 5 0 0

m

ete r s,

d

u e to t

h

e

l

a c

k

o

f

a

_{p p li}

ca

b l

e

d

ata s ets ^'^'^

.

A

re v

i

e

w

o

f m

o

d

e

l

v a

l i d

at

i

o n s_tu

d i

e s c o n

d

ucte

_{d b y}

t

h

e

A

m

e r

i

c an

P

etr o

l

e u

m

In st

i

tute*

i

d

e nt

i

fi

e

d d

e

fi

c

i

en c

i

es

i

nc

l

u

d

i

n

_g

t

h

e

l

a c

k

o

f

s

i

m

u

l

at

i

o n stu

d i

e s o

f m

o

d

e

l p

er

f

or

m

anc e

i

n t

h

e

v er

_y

n ea r

fi

e

l d

or

b

e

_y

on

d

a

f

e

w h

un

_d

r e

d

m

eter s a n

d

t

h

e

l

a c

k

o

f

s u

f fi

c

i

ent e x

_p

er

i

m

e nta

l

d

ata

f

o r " r

ig

o ro u s te st

i

n

_g

o

f

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

st

h

at a r e use

d

to r e

_p

r e s e nt are a

/

vo

l

u

m

e so ur ce

i m p

a cts

f

o r a v a r

i

et y o

f

r e

_g

u

l

ato r

_{y p}

e r

m i

t t

i

n

_g

a n

d

c o

m p l i

a n c e a_p

_{p l i}

c at

i

o n s" .

S

o

m

e o

f

t

h

e

i

n su

ffi

c

i

e n c

i

es

i

n c

l

u

d

e

d d

ata s ets c o

m p

r

i

s e

d

o

f i

n sta nta n eou s s

_y

r

i

n

_g

e s a

m p l

e s_,

w h i

c

h

a re

not a

_{p p}

r o

_p

r

i

ate

f

o r e v a

l

uat

i

n

_g

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s us e

d i

n t

h i

s stu

d y d

u e to t

h

e

l

a c

k

o

f

t

i m

e

w

h

i

c

h i

s n e e

d

e

d

to in v e st_{i g}ate

la

te r al

m

o

d

e

l d

is_pe r s

i

o n _per

f

or

m

a n c e. In a

d d i

t

i

o n

, n o n e o

f

t

h

e

_p

r ev

i

ou s c o

_{m p}

a

ri

s on s o

f A E R

M

O D

a n

d I S C

(

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

ls u s e

d in

t

h i

s stu

d

_y,

f

or

m

a

l l

y

i

n_tr o

d

u c e

d l

ate r

i

n t

h is s e c

t

i

o n

)

e v a

l

u ate

d

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l p

r e

d ic

t

io n s

w i

t

h

r e s

_p

e ct to o

_p

e n-

_p

_at

h

Fou

ri

e r Tr a n s

f

o r

m

In

fr

a r e

d

(

O

P-F T I

R

)

_s

pe ctr o s c o

_p

_y

m

e a s u r e

m

e nts. Inte r e st

in

O

P-F T I

R

s

_p

e ctro sc o_{p y}

i

s

i

nc r e a s

i

n

_{g i}

n _pa rt

d

u e to t

h

e _po s s

ib i l i

t

ie s

_p

r e s e nte

d b

_y u s

i

n_g

O P

-

F T I R f

_or

f

e n c e

li

ne

m

o n

i

to r

i

n

_g

to c o

m p

ute e

m i

s s

i

on e st

im

at

i

o n s.

T h

e

p

ur

p

o s e o

f

t

h i

s stu

d

y

i

s to

c o

m

_pa r e

m

o

d

e

l p

r e

d ic

t

i

ons

i

n t

h

e

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

r a n_ge o

f l

es s t

h

an

5

0 0

m

ete rs

fr

o

m

t

h

e

s our ce r e

l

e a s e vn t

h m

e a s u r e

d

c on c en tr a_t

io n s c o

l l

e cte

d

us

in

_{g b}

ot

h

tr a

d i

t

io n a

l

_po

i

n_t sa

m pl

e s

a n

d O

P-F

T

I

R

_s

pe ctr o s c o

_p

_y.

Co n c

entr at

io n s

w

e r e

m

e a s u r e

d

u s

i

n

_g

o

_p

e n

-p

at

h

F T I

R

(

O

P-F T I

R

)

_s

p

e ctro sco

_{p y}

an

d

T

e

d l

ar ®

b

a

_{g p}

o

i

nt s a

m p l

e s, ar ra n

g

e

d i

n arc s

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

o

f

t

h

e s ou rc e r e

l

e a s e_, to c r e ate

t

w

o

d

a ta s ets

w i

t

h w h i

c

h

to e v a

lu a

te t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l p

r e

d i

ct

i

o n s. T

h i

s stu

d

y us e s

O P

-

F T

I

R

s

_p

e ctro

m

e te r

d

ata an

d

Te

d la r ®

_p

o

i

nt s a

m

_p

le s

to e v a

l

u ate t

h

e a

i

r

_q

u a

l i

t_y

m

o

d

e

ls o

n a

s

_p

at

i

a

ll y

-_{r es o}

lv

_e

d

, te

m p

or a

l b

a s

i

s

i

n or

d

er to

d

eter

m i

net

h

e r e

l

at

i

ons

hi p

b

et

w

e e n t

h

e

c onta

m i

n a nt

m

e a s u r e

m

e nt tec

hn o

l

o

_{g i}

e s a n

d

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l p

re

d

i

ct

i

on s.

F i g

ure

1 p

re sents a

d i

a

_g

ra

m

o

f

t

h

e

D

u

k

e

F

o r e st

S i

te.

O P

-

F T I R

_o

f fe r

_{s a}

_d

_{v a nt}

a

_g

e s o v e r tra

d i

t

i

o n a

l p

o

i

nt s a

m p l

es

du e

to t

h

e

d

ata's

_p

at

h

-in

te

_g

r ate

d

n atu re_, e n a

b li

n

_{g i}

_{t t}o "s

m

oot

h

out"

t

h

e c o n c e ntr at

io n s a

l

on

_g

ea c

h

a rc ra

di i

_;

w h

e r e a s

_p

o

i

nt s a

m

_p

l

e s c a n e a s

i l

_y

m i

s s

l

a r_ge o r s

m

a

l l

c o n c e ntr at

io n s

w h i

c

h

a r e

b

et

w

e e n

sa

m p l i

n

_{g p}

o

in

ts. T

h

e t wo

-

i

_{nstr u}

m

_ent

_O

_P-_F

_T

_I

_R

stu

d

_y als o o

f

fe r s adva nta

_g

e s o v e r a sin_{g l}e o_pe n

-path c o nfi

_g

u r atio n

d

u e to _the a

b

i l it_y to

s

_p

at

ia

l l y

r e so

l

v e t

h

e

_{p l}

u

m

e co

m p

o n e nts.

W

it

h

r etr o r e

f le c

to r sa r r a n

g

e

d in

an a r c

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

o

f

t

h

e e

m i

s s

io n

s ou r c e_,

i

t c a n

b

e

d

ete r

m in

e

d i f

the

_{p l}

u

m

e

is e n

t

ir e

l

_y c a

_p

tu r e

d

o r

r e

_p

res en te

d b

_{y t}

h

e s a

m p l i

n

_{g m}

e c

h

an

i

sm.

T h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s s e

le c

te

d fo r u s

e

in

t

h i

s stu

d y w

ere

I

n

du s

tr

ia

l So

u r ce

C

o

m p l

ex

Sh

ort

T

e r

m

-T w

o

(

I

S C

2

)

,

I

n

d

u str

i

a

l S

o u rce

Co

m p l

ex

Sh

o rt T e r

m

-

T hr e e

(

I S C

3

)

, a n

d

t

h

e

A

m

e r

i

c a n

M

ete o r o

lo

_{g i}

c a

l So c

ie

_{t y}

(

A

M

S

)

/

En v

i

r o n

m

e nta

l

Pr ote ct

io n

_{A g}

e n c_y

(

E P A

)

R

e

_g

u

la

to r

_y

M

o

d

e

l

I

_{m p}

r o v e

m

ent

C

o

m m i

tte e

(

A

E R

M

I C

₎

m

o

d

e

l

_,

A E R

M

O D

.

A l l

t

h

r e e

m

o

d

e

l

sa r e

b

a s e

d

on t

h

e ste a

d

_y

-state

G

a u s s

ia

n

_{p l}

u

m

e

d is

_p

e r s

i

o n e

_q

u at

i

o n,

w hi

c

h p

r e

d i

cts a n o r

m

a

l

c o nta

m i

nant

d i

st

ri b

ut

io n

fr

o

m

t

h

e s o u r c e re

l

e as e

_p

o

in

t

(

s

)

to

w

a r

d l

o c at

i

o n s

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

o

f

t

h

e r e

le a s e

.

I

nte

g

r at

io

n o

f

t

h

e

G

au s s

ia n

d is

p

e r s

i

o n e

q

uat

io n

o ver t

h

e

d i

sta n ce

fr

o

m

t

h

e

s our c e e

m i

s s

io n

to a r e c e

_p

to r

l

o c at

io

n

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d p

r o

du c e s a

c o n c e ntr at

io n

_p

r e

di

ct

io

n

f

o r

a s

_p

e c

i fi

c

_p

o

in

t.

E

a c

h m

o

d

e

l

e st

im

ate s t

h

e con c e ntr at

i

o n v a

l

u e

f

or e ac

h

s o u r c e a n

d

r e c e

_p

to r c o

m b i

_{n at}

io

n

f

o r e a c

h i

n

_p

u t

m

eteo ro

l

o

_{g y}

t

im

e

in

terv a

l

.

E m i

s s

i

o n s o urc e s c an

b

e

c

h

a ract er

i

z e

d

a s

_p

o

in

t_, are a_, v o

lu

m

e or o

_p

en

_{p i}

_t e

m i

s s ons.

I

n t

hi

s stu

dy

_,

S

Fe

w

asr e

l

eas e

d

fr

o

m

a s

i

m

u

l

ate

d

v o

lu

m

e s o u r c e e

m i

s s

i

o n a n

d

t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s

w

e r e eva

lu a

te

d w i

t

h

v o

lu

m

e

s o u r c e e

m i

s s

i

on con

fi g

u ra t

i

on s

T h

e

I S C m

o

d

e

l

_s a r e t

h

e

m

o st c o

m

m

on

l y

us e

d m

o

d

e

l

s

i

n

i

n

du

str

_{y f}

o r s

h

ort-t_{e r}

m

(

d

_e

fi

_{n e}

d

as

l

ess t

h

a n

5 0 k

m

tr a n s

_p

o rt a n

d

1

-

2 4 h

_{ou r s}

fr

_o

m

_start

in

g

e

m i

s s

i

on t

im

e

)

r e

_g

u

l

ator

_y

s

h

o rt-_t

e r

m

"c o

m p l

i

c ate

d

s o u r c e"

₍

i

n c

l

u

d

in

_g

a r e a an

d

v o

lu

m

e s o u r c e s

)

r e

_g

u

l

ato r

_{y p}

u r

_p

o s e s

i

n s

i m p l

e te r r a

i

n

f

or

b

ot

h

r u r a

l

a n

d

u r

b

an

l

a n

d

u s e c

l

a s s

i fi

c at

i

o n s .

T h

e

I S C m

o

d

e

l

s a r e

s

in

_{g l}

e

l i

n e se

_{g m}

e nt

m

o

d

e

l

s,

w hi

c

h

r e

f

e r s to r e

p

res e nt

i

n

g

t

h

e s our c e a r e a a s a s

i

n

g l

e

l i

n e

o r

i

e nte

d

n o r

m

a

l

to t

h

e

w in

d di

r e ct

i

o n. T

hi

s te c

h

n

i q

ue

i

s a s

i m p l ifi

c at

i

o n o

f

the

m

u

l

t

i p l

e

l i

n e se

_{g m}

e nt te c

h

n

i q

u e u se

d i

n

m

o

d

e

l

s suc

h

a s

P A L

(

P

o

i

nt_,

A

r ea,

L i

n e

)

an

d F D

M

(

F

u

_{g i}

t

i

ve

D

ust

M

o

d

e

l

)

*

.

T h

e

A E R

M

I C m

o

d

e

l

,

A E R

M

O D

,

i

s a n a

i

r

q

ua

l i

t

y m

o

d

e

l d

eve

lo

p

e

d b y

a

j

o

i

nt e

ff

o rt

b

et

w

e e n t

h

e

A

m

e r

i

c a n

M

ete o r o

l

o

_{g i}

c a

l S

o c

i

et y

(

A

M

S

)

a n

d

t

h

e

E PA

.

A

E R

M

O D d i ff

e rs

fr

o

m

t

h

e

I S C m

o

d

e

l

s

i

n t

h

at

it

u se s cu r r e nt

_{p l}

an eta r

_{y b}

o un

d

a r_y

l

a

_y

e r

(

P E L

)

t

h

e o r

_y

to

d

ete r

m in

e the

d i

s

_p

e r s

i

o n

_p

a r a

m

ete r s a_y a n

d

CTz

(

t

h

e sta n

d

a r

d d

e v

i

at

i

on o

f

t

h

e

di

s

p

e rsion

in

t

h

e

_y

an

d

z

d i

r e c_t

i

o n s

)

i

n ste a

d

o

f d

e

_p

e n

d in

_g

o n Pa s_qu

il l

-

Gi

ff

o r

d

-T_u

m

_er

(

_P

G

_T

)

sta

bi l i

t

_y

c u r v e s

(

w h i

c

h

a r e

b

a s e

d

ex c

l

u s

i

v e

l y

on sho r t-_{r a n}

_g

_e

d i

_s

_p

_{e r s}

i

_{o n}

fr

_o

m g

_{r o u n}

d l

_{e ve}

l

_{su r}

f

_ace

re

le a s

es an

d

are a

m

e a s u r e o

f di

s

_p

e rsio n rathe r t

h

a n tu r

b

u

l

e n c e

l

ev e

l

s

)

.

A E RM

O D i

s

t

h

er e

f

o r e a

_{p p l i}

ca

b l

e to e

l

ev a_te

d

re

le a s

es,

w h i l

e

I S C i

s not

^'^ "

.

B

A C

K G

R O U N D A N D T

H

E

O R Y

Eva

lu a

t

io n

o

f

M

o

d

e

l

Pr e

di

ct

io n s

w i

t

h

F T I

R

T

h

e r e

l

at

i

o n s

hi p b

et

w

e e n

O

P-F

T

I

R

s

_p

e ctr o

m

ete r

m

e a s u r e

m

e nts a n

d

so u r c e e

m i

ss

io n

r ates

h

a s

b

e e n e x_p

lo r e

d b

_{y P i}c c ot et a

l

a n

d C

a rte r et a

l

t

h

r o u

_{g h}

t

h

e e st

im

at

i

on o

f

s o u r c e

e

m i

s s

io n

s tr e n_gt

h b

a s e

d

on

O P

-

F

_{T I}

R

m

_{e a s u r e}

d

_{c o n c e ntr at}

io n s

d

_o

w

_n-

w i

_n

d fr

_o

m

_a

c o nta

m i

nant re

l

ea s e " '"

.

B

ot

h

o

f

t

h

e s e stu

d i

esu se

d m

at

h

e

m

at

i

c a

l

a

l g

o r

i

t

h m

s

b

a se

d

on

G

a u ss

i

a n

d i

s

_p

e rsio n as su

m p

t

io

ns,

w h i

c

h

are e

m p l

o

y

e

d i

n t

h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s se

le

cte

d f

or

ev a

lu a

t

i

o n

i

n t

h is

stu

d

_y. P

i

c c ot et a

l f

o u n

d

t

h

e

ir

s

y

ste

m

to

b

e

w i

t

h in

+

- 2 5 t_o

3

₀

p

erc ent

ac cu r ate

in e st

i m

at

in

_g

t

h

e e

m i

s s

io

n s

fr

o

m

a

_g

rou n

d l

e v e

l

s our c e.

C

a rte r et a

l

co n c

lu

d

e

d

t

h

at t

h

e s

m

a

l l

e r t

h

e

m

ete o r o

l

o

_{g i}

c a

l i

nte r v a

l

a v e r a

_{g i}

n

_g

t

i

m

e_, t

h

e

_g

r _ea_te r t

h

e ac cu ra c

_y

o

f

m

o

d

e

l p

r e

d ic

t

io n s o

f

s o u r c e e

m i

s s

i

on str e n

_g

t

h

.

T h

e

G

a u s s

i

a n

d is

pe r s

io n

e

q

u at

i

o n

w

as

f

o u n

d

to _pe r

fo r

m

b

ette r at

d i

sta n c e s

_g

r e ate r t

h

a n 5 0

m

ete r s t

h

a n at t

h

os e

l

ess t

h

an 5 0

m

ete r s ^ ^.

O

ut

d

oo r

fi

e

l d

stu

d i

e s

ha v e

b

e e n con

_du

cte

d

to ev aluate _t

_h

e a ccur ac

_y

a n

d p

re s

i

sio n o

f O P

-F T I R i

n co

m p

a r

i

s o n to

m

u

lt

i p l

e

_p

o

i

nt sa

m p l

e rs s et u

_p

a

l

on

_g

t

h

e

_p

at

h

" '' *

.

I

n t

h

ese

stu

d ie

s,

q

u a

li

tat

i

v e a n

d q

u a nt

i

tat

i

ve re su

lt

s var

ie

d b

ot

h by

t

h

e

OP

-

F T I R

_s

y

ste

m

u s e

d

a n

d

b y

t

h

e c o nta

m i

n a nt

m

e a sur e

d

A fi

e

l d

stu

d y

con

du

cte

d b y C

arter et a

l

^ ^

i

n vest

i g

ate

d

t

h

e

r e

l

at

i

o ns

h i p b

et

w

e e n

O P

-

F T I R m

_{e a s ure}

m

_{e nts an}

d p

o

in

t s a

m p l i

n

_g

c an

i

ste r s an

d

c o n c

lu

d

e

d

t

h

at t

h

e

O P

-

F T I R d

ata

d i

s

_{p l}

a

_y

e

d

a

l

o

w

e r

_p

r e c

i

sio n t

h

a n t

h

at o

b

ta

m

e

d b y

t

h

e c a n

i

sters

b

ut

w

a s c o

m

_pa r a

b le

to c a niste r s in a c c u r a c_y

f

o r a

ll

t

h

r e e

O

P-F T

I R

_s

yste

m

s te ste

d

^ ^

M

o

d

e

l E

v a

lu

at

i

on

St

u

d ie s

A d

e v e

lo

_p

m

enta

l

eva

l

u at

i

on o

f A E R

M

O D

A v

it

h

co

m p

a r

i

so nsto

I SC 2

w

as c on

d

u cte

d

u sin

_g

p

o

in

t s a

m p l

e

d

ata sets c o

ll

e cte

_{d fr}

o

m

t

w

o

SF

etr a c e r stu

d i

es

(

19 8 4

, 1

9

8 8

)

a n

d

on e

S O

2

stu

d

_y

(

1 9 5 8

)

T h

e stu

dy

r e

le

as es

₍

b

ot

h p

as s

iv e a

n

d b

u o

_y

an t

)

w

er e c o n

d

ucte

d fr

o

m

s u r

f

ace-

l

_{e v e}

l

a n

d

e

le v a

te

d

s o ur ce s,

fl

a t an

d

c o

m p l

ex te r r a

i

n an

d i

n r u r a

l

a n

d

u r

b

an a r e as

^ *

.

F or s u r

f

a c e re

l

e a s e s,

A E R

M

O D

e x

hi b it

e

d

a te n

d

e n c

y

t o u n

d

e r

p

r e

d ic

t t

h

e

m

ax

i

m

u

m

con c e ntr at

i

o n s a s

m

e a su r e

_{d by p}

o

in

t sa

m p l i

n

_{g by}

a

f

a ctor o

f 1

.

3

5

i

n c onvect

i

v e an

d 1 2 in

sta

b l

e con

d it

i

o ns_,

w h il

e

I SC 2

s

h

o

w

e

d

a te n

d

enc

_y

to ov e r

_p

r e

d i

ct

_{b y}

a

f

a ctor o

f

2

i

n

c on v e ct

iv e

a n

d

a

f

a ctor o

f 1

.

4 i

n sta

b le c

o n

d i

tions.

H

o

w

ever,

f

o r r u r a

l

e

le

vate

d

r e

l

ea s es,

b

o t

h m

o

d

e

l

s ten

d

e

d

to

w

ar

d

u n

d

er

_p

re

d ic

t

io

n at

lo c

ations nea r e st to t

h

e s ou r c e_,

w i

t

h

A E R

M

O D

un

d

e r

_p

r e

di

ct

in

_{g b y}

a

_p

_prox

im

ate

l

_y

1

.

1

an

d I S C 2

un

d

e r

p

r e

d ic

t

in

g b

y ne a r

l y

a

f

actor o

f

t

h

re e.

T h

e

A P I

e_{v a}

lu

ate

d

t

h

e " re aso n a

b le

n es s" o

f

t

h

e var

i

o u s

di

s

_p

er _sion a

_{l g}

or

i

t

hm

s o

f

six sho rt

-te r

m

r e

fi

n e

d

di

s_pe rsion

m

o

d

e

ls

,

in

c

lu

d i

n

g I SC 2

, u s

i

n

g m

at

h

e

m

atic a

l

s

i

m

u

la

t

io n s

(

n ot trac e r

stu

d ie s

)

a n

d

c o n c

l

u

d

e

d

t

h

at the

I S C

2 a r ea

m

o

d

els

w

er e

il l

-_su

it

_e

d f

_or

p

r e

d i

ct

in

g

conce ntrat

io n

s on or c

l

o se to a s o u r c e's

b

o u n

da r

ie s

or at ot

h

e r n e a r-

fi

_e

l d

_{r e c e}

_p

_tors

(

l

_{es s}

t

h

a n 5 0 0

m

ete r s

)

*

. T

h

e

A P

I t

h

e n e v a

lu

ate

d

t

h

e s a

m

e

m

o

d

elsu s

i

n

g SF

e tr a c e r

d

ata s ets

(

c r e ate

d b

_y

va

ri

o u s c

h

e

m i

c a

l

a n

_{d p}

etr o

le

u

m

c o

_{m p}

an

i

e s

f

or

_p

u r

_p

o s e s ot

h

er tha n

m

o

d

e

l

e v a

lu

at

io

n

)

^

.

T h

e

I SC

2 vo

lu

m

e so u r c e

m

o

d

e

l

s

w

ere

f

ou n

d

to

p

er

f

o r

m

r ea s on a

b l y w

e

l l

o n

a

_q

u a

l i

tativ e

b

a s

i

s, e x ce

p

t at t

h

e c

l

o se st r e c e

p

tor s

^

.

H

o

w

e v e r

, t

h

e

A

P

I i d

e nt

ifi

e

d

d

efi cie n cie s in the data s ets a v ailab le for

m

o

d

el e v alu atio n, in clud

i

ng a la c

k

o

f

c on c e ntr at

i

o n

d

ata

i

n t

h

e v e r

_y

n e a r

fi

e

l d

o r

b

e_yo n

d

a

f

e

w hu

n

d

r e

d m

ete rs,

la c

k

o

f d

ata

c o v e r

i

n

_g

v a r

i

ou s

m

ete o ro

lo

_{g i}

c a

l

con

d it

i

ons, a n

d l

a c

k

o

f

s a

m p l

er covera

g

e to

p

rov

i d

e a

fu

l l

cr o s s

w i

n

d p l

u

m

e

m

a ss

d i

str

_{i b}

ut

i

on

''

.

M

o

d

e

l A l g

o r

it

h m

s

T h

e

m

o

d

e

l

s e v a

l

u ate

d i

n t

h i

s stu

d y

a re

b

a s e

d

on t

h

e

G

aussian

_{p l}

u

m

e

d is

_p

er sio n

m

o

d

e

l

,

w hi

c

h p

re

d ic

tsa n o r

m

a

l

co nta

m i

n a nt

d i

str

i bu

t

i

o n

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

o

f

t

h

e s o u r ce r e

l

e as e.

A

s su

m p

t

i

o ns o

f

t

h

e

G

a u ssian

m

o

d

e

l i

nc

lu

d

e t

h

e

f

o

l l

o

w i

n

_{g p}

ar a

m

ete r s : a thr e e

-di m

en siona

l

a x

i

s s

_y

ste

m

o

f d

o

w

n

_{w i}

n

_d

, c ro s sw in

d

an

d

v e rt

i

c a

l

c oo r

d i

nate s

w i

t

h

t

h

e or

i g i

n

at t

h

e

_g

r oun

_d

_; t

h

at the c on c entr at

i

o nsa r e

fi

ro

m

a cont

i

nu ou s

l y

e

m it

_t

in

_{g p l}

u

m

e an

d

a r e

p

r o_port

i

o n a

l

to t

h

e e

m i

s s

i

on r ate_; a n

d

t

h

e c o nce ntrat

i

o n s a r e

di l

ute

d b y

t

h

e

w i

n

d

at t

h

e

p

o

in t

o

f

t

h

e e

m i

ssio n at a r ate

i

n v e rs e

_{l y p}

r o

_p

o rt

io n a

l

to t

h

e

w i

n

d

s

_p

e e

d

.

T h

e

m

o

d

e

l

a s s u

m

e s t

h

at t

h

e t

im

e- _{a v e r a}

g

e

d p

o

l l

u ta nt c o n c entrat

i

o n s c r o s s

w i

n

d

a n

d

v e rt

i

c a

l l

_y n e a r t

h

e

sour ce are

w

e

ll d

e s c r

i b

e

d by G

a uss

i

an or nor

m

a

l

₍

b

e

l l

-sh_a

_p

_e

d

)

d

i

str

ib

ut

i

o n s an

d

t

h

at t

h

e

sta n

d

a r

d d

e v

i

at

i

on s o

f

t

h

e

_{p l}

u

m

e c once ntr at

i

on

in

t

h

e s e t

w

o

d i

re ct

i

ons

₍

a_y

in

t

h

e

cr o s s

w i

n

d

, Oz

in

t

h

e ve rt

ic a

l

)

ar e e

m p i

r

i

ca

l l y

re

la

te

d

to the

l

e ve

l

s o

f

tu r

b

u

l

e n c e

i

n t

h

e

at

m

os

_{p h}

e r e an

d in

c r e a s e

w i

t

h d i

sta n ce

fi

"

o

m

t

h

e s ou r c e.

I

n

it

s s

_{i m p l}

est

f

or

m

, t

h

e

G

au s s

i

a n

m

o

d

e

l

a ss u

m

es t

h

at t

h

e

p

o

l l

uta nt

d

o esnot u n

d

e r

g

o

c

h

e

m i

c a

l

r e a ct

io

n s or ot

h

er _{r e}

_m

ov a

_{l p}

r o ces s e s

i

n tr ave

l i

n

_g

a

w

a

_{y fi}

^

o

m

t

h

e s ou rc e an

d

t

h

at

i

s r e

fl

e cte

d b

ack to

w

ar

d

t

h

e _{p l}u

m

e c e nte rl in e^ ^. T

h

e

b

a sic

G

a u s s

i

a n p

l

u

m

e

m

o

d

e

l

for

Sta

b l

e co n

d i

t

i

on s

i

s

_{g i}

v e n

b

_{y t}

h

e e

_q

u at

i

on :

C

₍

x _,

_y

_^

)

=

Q (

l / j

i

) {

_g

_i

/

[(

2

n

)

«^

a

y

] } {

g

2

/

[(

2

n

)

" '

a

_{j }}

_{E q}

u a

t

i

on

1

I

n t

h i

s e

_q

u at

i

o n,

C

(

x,

y

,z

)

i

s t

h

e co n ce n tr at

i

o n at t

h

e r ec e

p

tor

l

o c ate

d

at t

h

e co o r

d i

n ates

x,y, a n

d

z;

Q

i

s t

h

e s o u r c e e

m i

s s

i

o n r ate

i

n gr a

m

s

p

e r s e c o n

d

; jj

,

i

s t

h

e

m

e an

w i

n

d

s pe e

d i

n

m

ete r s

_p

e r s econ

d

_; O_y an

d

Gz a r e t

h

e sta n

d

a r

d d

e v

i

at

i

o n s o

f

t

h

e

h

o r

i

z o nta

l

a n

d

v e rt

i

c a

l

d i

s

_p

e r s

i

o n _; a n

d g

i a n

d g

2 ar e ex

_p

o n e nt

i

a

l f u

n ct

i

o ns

w h i

c

h

v a r

_{y d}

e

_p

en

d i

n

_g

on

w h

et

h

er t

h

e

m

ete oro

l

o

_{g i}

ca

l

c on

d i

t

i

on s are sta

b l

e, c on v e ct

i

v e or ne utr a

l

.

T h

e

I SC

2 a n

d I SC 3

m

o

d

e

l

s

d iff

e r

fr

o

m

o n e a n ot

h

e r

i

n t

h

e

i

r a r ea s o u r c e a

_{l g}

o r

i

t

h m

s_, n ot

i

n

t

h

e

i

r v o

l

u

m

e so ur c e a

lg

o r

i

t

hm

s.

T h

e r e

f

or e

, t

h

e

I S C

2 a n

d

I

SC

3 v o

l

u

m

e s o u r c e

m

o

d

e

l

o ut

_p

ut s a re

i d

ent

i

c a

l

a n

d

ar e r e

f

e r re

d

to s

i m p l y

a s "

I SC

v o

l

u

m

e"_,

w i

t

h

out

i

n

d i

cat

i

n

_{g I SC}

2

o r

I S C 3

.

T h

e

I S C

v o

l

u

m

e s ou r ce

m

o

d

e

l i

s " v

i

rtu a

l p

o

i

nt s o u r c e"

m

o

d

e

l

.

T h i

s

m

e an s t

h

at an

i m

a

_{g i}

nar

_y

or v

i

rtu a

l p

o

i

nt so u rce

i

s

l

o c ate

d

a_t a ce rta

i

n

di

sta nc e u

_{pw i}

n

d

o

f

t

h

e v o

l

u

m

e

s ou rc e to a c co u nt

f

or t

h

e

i

n

i

t

i

a

l

s

i

ze o

f

t

h

e v o

l

u

m

_{e s o}u r c e

_{p l}

u

m

e.

T h

e e

q

u at

i

o n u s e

d i

n

t

h

e

I SC

vo

l

u

m

e sou rc e

m

o

d

e

l i

s :

C

₍

x_,

_y

)

=

[

(

Q

K

V D

)

/

₍

2

H

u^

C

T

yTC^

_j

l

e x

p

[

1

/

2

(

f

/

cj

/

)]

E q

u a

t

i

on

2

I

n t

h i

s e

_q

uat

i

o n_,

C

(

x,y

)

re

p

r e se nts t

h

e r e c e

p

tor

l

oc at

i

o n coo r

d i

n ate s

(

t

h

e re c e

p

tor

i

s

l i m i

te

d

to

_g

r o u n

d l

ev e

l

,

w i

t

h

z

=

₀

₎

; z r e_pr e s e nts t

h

e _p

l

u

m

e

di

s_pe r s

i

o n

h

e

ig h

t ;

K i

s a s c a

l i

n

_g

c oe

f fi

c

i

e nt u s e

d

to c o n v e rt t

h

e c a

l

c u

l

ate

d

c o n c e ntr at

i

o n to t

h

e

d

es

i

r e

d

un

i

ts

(

a

d

e

f

au

l

t o

f

1

x

1 0

*

f

or

Q

i

n

_{g /}

s a n

d

con e,

i

n wg

/m

^

)

;

V i

s a v e rt

i

c a

l

ter

m w h i

c

h i

n c

l

u

d

es t

h

e e

fi f

e cts o

f

s ou rc e e

l

evat

i

on,

p l

u

m

e

ri

se,

l i m i

te

d

v e rt

i

ca

l m i

x

i

n

g

, an

d g

rav

i

tat

i

ona

l

set t

l i

n

g

an

d d

r

y

d

e

_p

o s

i

t

i

o n o

f p

a r_t

i

c

l

e s_; a n

d D i

s a

d

e c a_{y t}er

m w hi

c

h

a c c o u nts

f

o r

_p

o

l l

uta nt re

m

ova

l b

_y

p hy

s

i

c a

l

or c

h

e

m i

c a

_{l p}

ro c e s ses

(

f

u nct

i

on o

f d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

di

stanc e, x

)

.

T h

e O

yan

d

Oz va

l

ue s

a r e c a

l

c u

l

ate

d

u s

i

n_g t

h

e

f

o

ll

o

w i

n_{g P}

G

T sta

b i

l it_y c u r v e e_qu atio n s : O_y = 4 6 5. 1 1 6 2 8

(

x

)

ta n

(

T H

₎

w h

e r e

(

T

H

)

=

0

.

0 1

7 4 5

3 2

9 3

[

c

*

_{d h}

i

(

x

)]

_;

(

w h

e r e c an

d d

a r e c on stants

w h i

c

h d

e

_p

en

_d

o n P

G

T sta

b i l i

t_y c

l

a s s

)

_; a n

d

©z = ax

*"

;

w h

e re a a n

d b

a r e c onstan ts

w h i

c

_{h d}

e

_p

en

d

on

P G T

sta

b i li

_t

_y

c

l

a s s.

T h

e

m

ea n

w i

n

d

s

p

e e

d

at r e

l

e ase

h

e

ig h

t_, u

, ,

i

s

d

eter

m i

ne

d

t

h

ro u

g h

t

h

e

e_qu at

i

o n : u, = U re f

[

I

v

'

z re f

_]

'' _;

(

w h

e r e

_{p i}

s

d

e

_p

e n

d

e nt o n P

G

T sta

b i l i

t

_y

an

d w i

n

d

s

_p

e e

d

c

l

a ss,

Ur ef =

w i

n

d

s

p

e e

d

at t

h

e r e

f

e ren c e

h

e

i g h

t,

h

* = e

ff

e ct

i

v e sta c

k h

e

i g h

t, Zr ef =

h

e

i g h

t o

f

t

h

e

w i

n

d

s

_p

e e

d m

eas u r e

m

e nt

)

.

T h

e I

SC

2 s

h

o rt te r

m

ar e a s our c e

m

o

d

e

l i

s

b

a se

d

on t

h

e e

_q

uat

i

on

f

o r a

fi

n

i

te cross

w i

n

d l i

n e

s o u rce_,

i

n

w hi

c

h

t

h

e

_g

r o u n

d l

e v e

l

c o n centr at

i

o n

(

C

)

at

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d d i

sta n c e x a n

_d

c r o s s

w i

n

d d i

sta n ce

_{y i}

s

_{g i}

ven

b

_y :

C

₍

x_,

_y

)

=

[

(

Q

_a

_V

K

_E

_{x o}

₎

/

(

₄

V2

u ,

C

T

z

)

]

E q

u a

t

i

on

3

In t

hi

s e

_q

u at

i

o n_, t

h

e

Q

o

f E q

u at

i

on

1 i

s r e

_{p l}

a ce

d b

_y

Q

a, t

h

e ar e a sou rce e

m i

s s

i

o n rate

i

n

g /

s

/m

"^

.

E i

s an er ror

f

i i nct

i

on te r

m g i

ve n

b

y t

h

e e

q

u at

i

o n:

E

= er

f

{ [

r o '

+

_y

_]

/

_[

V

2

ay

]

}

+ er

f

{ [

ro

'

-y

]

/

[

V

2

a _y

_]

_}

_;

₍

w h

e r e r=

o

'

= e

ff

ect

i

ve r a

d i

us o

f

ar ea s o ur c e = _{x o}

/

_{( V}

2

n

₎

m

_; an

d

_{X o}

=

_l

_{e n}

T h

e

I S C

3 short ter

m

a r e a s o urc e

m

o

d

e

l d if f

e r s

fr

o

m

t

h

e I

SC 2

are a sou rce

m

o

d

e

l i

n _t

h

e

a

d d it

i

o n o

f

t

h

e

d

e c a_y te r

m

a n

d

t

h

e

d

e

l

et

i

o n o

f

t

h

e e r r o r

f

u nc t

i

o n _te r

m

.

D

o

w

n

w i

n

d

concentr at

io

n s ar e

d

eter

m i

ne

d

us

i

n

_g

t

h

e

fo

ll

o

w i

n

_g

e

_q

u at

i

o n

w it

h

v a

ri

a

b l

e s

d

e

fi

ne

d

a s

i

n

E q

u ation

3

^ *

:

C

₍

x_,

_y

)

=

Q

_a

K

\ 2

n

u

J

[

V D /

_{c fy}

a

z

] {J

e x

p

[

1/ 2

(

y

2

/

_{c Ty}2

_)]

d

_y

_}

d

x

E

_q

u a

t

i

on

4

A E R

M

O D h

a s

d i

ff

er ent a

l g

o

ri

t

h m

s

b

a s e

d

on the

d

o

m i

n a nt

m

ete or o

lo

_g

_y c

h

aracte

ri

st

ic

s o

f

t

h

e a r ea ov e r

w hi

c

h

t

h

e

_p

r e

d ic

t

i

o n s a re to

b

e

m

a

d

e_{; t}

h

e r e

i

s o n e a

l g

o

ri

t

h m f

o r

_p

o

in

t, ar ea

an

d

v o

l

u

m

e e

m i

s s

io

n sou rces

in

sta

b l

e c o n

d it

i

ons, an

d

anot

h

e r

f

or u se

in

co nv e ct

iv

e

co n

d it

i

on s

T h

e

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

conc entr at

io

n o

f

a

_p

o

l l

utant

i

n sta

b l

e co n

d it

i

on s

i

s

_{g i}

v en

b

_y :

C

₍

x _,

_y

_,z

)

=

[(

Q

/ U

)

_P

_z

(

x _,z_,

H

p

)

«

p

y

(

x

)]

E q

u a

t

i

on

5

In th is e

_q

u a t

i

o n,

Q

i

s t

he s o

u rce e

m i

ssion r ate,

U

i

s t

h

e

m

e an

w i

n

d

s

p

e e

d

,

p

y, an

d

p^ a r e

p

ro

b

a

b i l it

_{y d}

en sit y

f

u n c_t

i

ons o

f p

art

i

c

le

_p

o s

it

i

on

i

n t

h

e_jv an

d

z

di

r ect

i

o n s

(

l

e n_{g t}

h

)

'_^

g i

v e n

b y

t

h

e e

_q

uat

i

ons :

_p

_z =

_[

l /

V

l I I

Oz

)]

S

{

ex

p

[

-

(

z -

H

_p + 2n

h

»

)

^

/

2az ^

]

+ex

_p

_[

-(

z+

H

p

+

2

n

h

_,

)V

2a2 ^

]

}

an

d p

_y=

[

1/

^

2

11

a_y

_)]

e x

_p

[

-y

^

/

2a_y

%

ay an

d

a z e , u se

d i

n t

h

e

p

r e v

i

o us

e

_q

u at

i

ons, a re

g i

v en

b y

: ay

=

p l

u

m

e

h

or

i

zo nta

l

s

_p

re a

d

=

(

a e

)

x

(

c!q= sta n

d

a r

d

d

ev

i

at

i

o n o

f

w i

n

d

d

i

rect

i

o n

f lu c

tuation s -

m

_{e a su r e}

d

_{at t}

h

_{e s}

it

_e

)

a n

d

a^

=

[(

a* x

/

u

)

/

(

l

+t

/ 2 T

i w

)

^ ^

]

w h

ere

T l w

= _t

_h

_e

_L

_a

g

r an

_{g i}

an t

im

e sca

l

e

f

or v ert

i

ca

l

v e

l

oc

i

_{t y}

fl

u ctu at

i

o n s' .

I

n c on v e ct

i

v e c on

di

t

i

o n s_, t

h

e

d

o

w

n

w i

n

d

con cen_trat

io n

is

d

ete r

m i

ne

d b y

t

h

e e

_q

u at

i

o n :

C

₍

x

,

y

,z

)

=

[(

Q

/ U

)

p

_y

(

y ;

x

)

•

P

2

(

z

;

x

)]

E q

u a

t

i

o n

6

w

ith the _pri

m

a r _{y d i fl f}ere n c e

b

ein_g the

d

e

ri

v ation o

f

the _p^ a n

d

_p^ _pa r a

m

ete r s : _pz =

[

i

H

l

U

az

) ]

e x

p

[

-z

V

2

CT z

^

]

an

d p

_y=

[

i

N

l

U

O_y

) ]

ex

_p

_[

-

f

/ 2

_a

y ^

]

. '

T h

e

d i

ff

e r e nc es

b

et

w

e en I

SC

an

d A E

R

M

O D i

n te r

m

s o

f m

ete o r o

l

o_g

i

c a

l

r e

_q

u

i

r e

m

e nts

i

s