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Physical controls on the scale-dependence of ensemble streamflow forecast dispersion

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Figure

Fig. 1. (a) Baron Fork basin location within the Arkansas Red Riverbasin. The coarse-scale domain L×L used for rainfall downscalingis plotted with a gray square
Fig. 2. Synthetic “observed” database generation. (a) Time series of NEXRAD rainfall estimates R during summer 2000, aggregated in thecoarse spatial domain L×L (with L=256 km) centered on the Baron Fork over an accumulation time T =16 h
Fig. 3. Event-based approach for the hydrometeorological hindcasts. Inwithin the time window (a): (1) precipitation is observed up to t∗, when a NWP model issuesa coarse rainfall forecast R for the next T hours over the L×L domain, (2) the STRAIN model pro
Fig. 4. Schematic of the approach used to estimate the recession timelarger than 10% of its initial value
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